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Ryan Tannehill Bandwagon (1 Viewer)

Shanahanigans

Shanahanigans

Footballguy
I know, I know, he's on perhaps the worst team in the league with inept management and minor league talent surrounding him. BUT, from what I have seen of the guy, and from what I have read about him, Tannehill seems like he can be a future stud in the NFL and fantasy.

The two experts whose opinions I respect most, Todd McShay and Mike Mayock, both pegged him as a QB with all the tools and intangibles to be a franchise QB. Mayock on Tannehill. McShay on Tannehill Although Mayock said he thought he was at least a year away, it seems that he has adapted to the NFL quicker than many expected, including his coaches. Also, Greg Cosell, whose stock as a scout and game-tape-examiner-extraordinaire rises exponentially every day, has a ton of great things to say about Tannehill. Most of his criticisms can be attributed to Tannehill's relatively recent switch to playing QB, and can be fixed with proper coaching. Cosell on Tannehill

So the experts say he is capable of good if not great things, and from what he has done in OTAs and the preseason there is no reason his stock should have gone anywhere but up. He has exhibited a strong arm, excellent pocket presence, and the athleticism we all knew he had. Beyond that, when watching him it is evident he has leadership abilities, and that swagger that is necessary for most successful QBs.

Bottom line, I am on the Ryan Tannehill bandwagon, and I suggest you get on before you have to pay anymore to get him. I understand I am working off a very limited and perhaps meaningless sample size, but from what I can tell he passes the eye test and will succeed in the NFL. I think many people are writing him off due to his supporting cast, but things change very quickly in the NFL. Plus, the mark of a great QB is that he elevates the play of all those around him. So, if you're buying Tannehill like I am, his surrounding cast should not be too big of a concern.

I am predicting a Sam Bradford-esque rookie year, and this would lead to his value going way up this offseason. Get on board before it's too late!

 
What bothers me about him is that he wasn't very good in college. I'm always wary of moderately productive college QBs who are overdrafted on the basis of physical talent and potential. I just feel like these guys rarely become great pros. I think Tannehill will be a Flacco type at best. In any event, I expect him to struggle as a rookie since Miami has no talent besides Bush in the passing game.

 
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I'm a huge Dolphins fan, and I can tell you if Tannehill turns out to be Flacco-like that will have exceeded my wildest expectations.

 
'EBF said:
What bothers me about him is that he wasn't very good in college. I'm always wary of moderately productive college QBs are are overdrafted on the basis of physical talent and potential. I just feel like these guys rarely become great pros. I think Tannehill will be a Flacco type at best. In any event, I expect him to struggle as a rookie since Miami has no talent besides Bush in the passing game.
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Funny that you mention Flacco as I was very high on Flacco coming out. I think part of the reason Flacco has not made that step to the next level is because he has been treated with kid gloves his whole career. Hopefully this is not the case with Tannehill. Also, Tannehill has had a much better rookie offseason than Flacco had. Not that this says a ton, but perhaps it indicates he's further along than Flacco at this stage of his career. I agree he will have his struggles as a rookie, but this is more for dynasty purposes than anything. So, this year should not be of too much concern to owners. As I said in the first post, things change quickly and if he is as good as I think he is he will elevate the play of those around him.Right now it seems like you can get him for as little as a 2nd Round Pick next year, and that is buying low imo. If you could add Flacco for a 2nd Rounder 3-4 years ago it would be a no brainer today, and this could easily be the case with Tannehill.
 
I watched every snap he had this preseason, and came away very impressed. His numbers were OK, but his play was better than the numbers. He looked poised, accurate, and confident.

He is also playing in an offensive scheme that has only produced stud QBs. From Favre to Rodgers to Matt Flynn - QBs seem to succeed in the system. I understand completely that the difference in supporting cast is vast between GB and Miami, but speaking from a dynasty perspective, one has to assume that talent will be added for Tannehill. They already have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds next year, and 10 picks overall. Even Jeff Ireland knows he has to give his new franchise QB some weapons. Unfortunately, Jeff is likely to be the one picking those weapons...

 
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Kyle Boller

Rex Grossman

J.P Losman

Jay Cutler

Brady Quinn

Matt Ryan

Jake Locker

Blaine Gabbert

Christian Ponder

Ryan Tannehill

Maybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.

 
'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
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:goodposting: I don't think he'll be as bad as Gabbert. I think Rex Grossman is the closest comparison with Cutler being his ceiling. High turnover type.
 
'ShaHBucks said:
High turnover type.
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He has a little too much confidence in his arm/accuracy. Assuming Tannehill plays 14+ games I'd be very surprised if he doesn't lead the league in interceptions...and that's in an NFL with 5 rookie starting quarterbacks and many more second and third year guys.Also, he doesn't know which teams play in what divisions? Weak. :mellow:
 
'trader jake said:
'ShaHBucks said:
High turnover type.
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He has a little too much confidence in his arm/accuracy. Assuming Tannehill plays 14+ games I'd be very surprised if he doesn't lead the league in interceptions...and that's in an NFL with 5 rookie starting quarterbacks and many more second and third year guys.Also, he doesn't know which teams play in what divisions? Weak. :mellow:
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In the preseason, he displayed excellent physical tools (better than the numbers indicate), but he definitely locked into his #1 option. He could easily lead the league in INTs, unless Miami runs the ball a lot. Miami's receiving options are in the bottom 3, but the o-line in the left-side is good and the RBs are decent. The defense should be below average without Nolan and Vontae Davis. I'm hopeful, but yet not sold on him. A potential dilemma: If Miami gets the #1 pick next year, do they draft a better franchise QB, such as Barkley?
 
I love Matt Moore's reaction to Tannehill not knowing the divisions. :lmao:

ETA: That said, I really don't get the decision not to start Matt Moore. Guy played well last year, is by all accounts a good team leader guy, and Miami is decent enough to compete. Let Tannehill develop and bring him in if the team starts out 2-6 or something.

 
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'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
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I am guessing that the list of 1st round QBs with a yards per attempt > 7.5 yards in their senior season would include great QBs like:Matt LeinartMark SanchezCarson PalmerVince YoungJaMarcus RussellIt seems like a stat that tells us more about the quailty of offense they played in at college rather than the quality of the QB. I can't help but to root for the underdog. Go Tannehill.
 
'Donnybrook said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
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I am guessing that the list of 1st round QBs with a yards per attempt > 7.5 yards in their senior season would include great QBs like:Matt LeinartMark SanchezCarson PalmerVince YoungJaMarcus RussellIt seems like a stat that tells us more about the quailty of offense they played in at college rather than the quality of the QB. I can't help but to root for the underdog. Go Tannehill.
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Well the 1st round QB list with a YPA over 7.5 also includes:Eli ManningPhilip RiversBen RoethlisbergerAaron RodgersJoe FlaccoMatt StaffordCam NewtonI think it's pretty obvious what list it is better to be on. Having said that, I never suggested having a high NCAA YPA guarantees success, I simply pointed to the fact that a very low NCAA YPA has been associated with a greater likelihood of a QB prospect being a bust over the past 10 years.
 
It would also include players like Luck and Rodgers, who were complete passing monsters in college.

College stats don't mean much, but QB is the one position where I really pay close attention to them. If you're an NFL caliber quarterback, you should be able to light up the box score against amateur defenses who give you long throwing windows compared to the NFL.

I think it's a big red flag when a player who is touted as an elite prospect fails to dominate against amateurs. I'll always let someone else take a gamble on the Tannehills, Lockers, Whitehursts, and Bollers of the world. Not every QB who dominates in college ends up being a good pro, but it seems like very few of those who don't become above average pro starters. I think the NFL scouting community has a bit of a blind spot when it comes to players who look like they'd be great quarterbacks, yet don't deliver the results on gameday.

Guys like Tannehill, Locker, and Boller have all the physical tools you'd want in a QB, but they were fairly mediocre performers at the amateur level. Having said that, Tannehill is probably on the high end of the spectrum compared to Boller/Locker/Whitehurst, so I'm a little more optimistic about his chances. I see him as more of a Cutler/Flacco/Rich Man's Grossman than a complete and utter flop.

 
'Time Kibitzer said:
Well the 1st round QB list with a YPA over 7.5 also includes:

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

Aaron Rodgers

Joe Flacco

Matt Stafford

Cam Newton

I think it's pretty obvious what list it is better to be on. Having said that, I never suggested having a high NCAA YPA guarantees success, I simply pointed to the fact that a very low NCAA YPA has been associated with a greater likelihood of a QB prospect being a bust over the past 10 years.
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This is true. I am just saying you have to take account the supporting cast they had in college. Obviously that is why Cutler YPA suffered in college. I believe the same could be said of Tannehill.
 
Well, Fuller was thought to be an elite prospect at one point and a lot of people like Ryan Swope. They also had NFL talent in the backfield in Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray. I don't think Tannehill's supporting cast was anything to write home about, but it was no worse than guys like Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers.

 
SplitGAttCompPct.YardsYards/AttTDIntRatingAtt/GYards/GAll Games1353032761.737447.12915133.4440.8288.0

These are Tannehills numbers as a senior. If you want to get into the game of picking stats, Tannehill threw for more TDs, and way more yards than Rodgers did in his last year at Cal. Let's also not forget the guy took a little different route to being a top ten nfl draft pick. He was a WR for his first two years at A&M. He caught 112 passes in his collegiate career.

I think coaching also has a direct impact on a QBs success in the NFL. Joe Philbin sat side by side with Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy throughout Rodgers development.



Tannehill seems set up to struggle this year based on his surrounding talent. I like his long term chances quite a bit though.

Ugh. Heres a link to Tannehills 29 TDs, and 3415 yards passing as a senior.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/stats/1273654

 
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'Kitrick Taylor said:
SplitGAttCompPct.YardsYards/AttTDIntRatingAtt/GYards/GAll Games1353032761.737447.12915133.4440.8288.0

These are Tannehills numbers as a senior. If you want to get into the game of picking stats, Tannehill threw for more TDs, and way more yards than Rodgers did in his last year at Cal. Let's also not forget the guy took a little different route to being a top ten nfl draft pick. He was a WR for his first two years at A&M. He caught 112 passes in his collegiate career.

I think coaching also has a direct impact on a QBs success in the NFL. Joe Philbin sat side by side with Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy throughout Rodgers development.



Tannehill seems set up to struggle this year based on his surrounding talent. I like his long term chances quite a bit though.

Ugh. Heres a link to Tannehills 29 TDs, and 3415 yards passing as a senior.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/stats/1273654
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That's not particularly surprising considering Tannehill had 215 more pass attempts in his senior season than Rodgers did in his last NCAA season. On the other hand, Rodgers did significantly better in all efficiency statistics compared to Tannehill, including completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, adjusted yards-per-attempt, and TD/INT ratio; so it's safe to say Tannehill doesn't really match up to Aaron Rodgers as a QB prospect.
 
'Kitrick Taylor said:
If you want to get into the game of picking stats, Tannehill threw for more TDs, and way more yards than Rodgers did in his last year at Cal.
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That's a really misleading way to frame the stats. Tannehill in 2011 - 531 pass attemptsRodgers in 2004 - 316 pass attemptsOf course he had more yards and TDs. He threw the ball 200+ more times. It means nothing. Rodgers was more accurate, averaged more yards per throw, and had a much better TD:INT ratio. In other words, Rodgers was way better than Tannehill, and he did that with a weak supporting cast. Not a single pass catcher from Cal's teams in the Rodgers years went on to a successful pro career.
 
'EBF said:
'Kitrick Taylor said:
If you want to get into the game of picking stats, Tannehill threw for more TDs, and way more yards than Rodgers did in his last year at Cal.
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That's a really misleading way to frame the stats. Tannehill in 2011 - 531 pass attemptsRodgers in 2004 - 316 pass attemptsOf course he had more yards and TDs. He threw the ball 200+ more times. It means nothing. Rodgers was more accurate, averaged more yards per throw, and had a much better TD:INT ratio. In other words, Rodgers was way better than Tannehill, and he did that with a weak supporting cast. Not a single pass catcher from Cal's teams in the Rodgers years went on to a successful pro career.
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I gave that misleading stat to make a point. Rodgers was a QB throughout his collegiate career. Tannehill was a WR for 2 years and a QB for 2 years. If Rodgers had played at Cal all 4 years, and dominated as a freshman and sophomore then we'd have some comparable stats to look at. However, Rodgers played Juco football, so we'll never really know what he would have done competing against that level of competition. Point in general is that I don't think that you can take away much of anything from Tannehill's collegiate stats. I don't disagree with EBF's theory in general. I just don't think it fits Tannehill's situation at all.
 
'Kitrick Taylor said:
'EBF said:
'Kitrick Taylor said:
If you want to get into the game of picking stats, Tannehill threw for more TDs, and way more yards than Rodgers did in his last year at Cal.
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That's a really misleading way to frame the stats. Tannehill in 2011 - 531 pass attemptsRodgers in 2004 - 316 pass attemptsOf course he had more yards and TDs. He threw the ball 200+ more times. It means nothing. Rodgers was more accurate, averaged more yards per throw, and had a much better TD:INT ratio. In other words, Rodgers was way better than Tannehill, and he did that with a weak supporting cast. Not a single pass catcher from Cal's teams in the Rodgers years went on to a successful pro career.
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I gave that misleading stat to make a point. Rodgers was a QB throughout his collegiate career. Tannehill was a WR for 2 years and a QB for 2 years. If Rodgers had played at Cal all 4 years, and dominated as a freshman and sophomore then we'd have some comparable stats to look at. However, Rodgers played Juco football, so we'll never really know what he would have done competing against that level of competition. Point in general is that I don't think that you can take away much of anything from Tannehill's collegiate stats. I don't disagree with EBF's theory in general. I just don't think it fits Tannehill's situation at all.
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I think the relatively small amount of time he has been playing the position must be factored in when looking at his college stats. They aren't the best stats, but when you've only been playing the position for two years there should obviously be a learning curve.As far as EBF saying that Rodgers had no players on his college team that went on to have a successful pro career, while Tannehill had NFL talent on his... Do you really think Fuller, Swope, Gray, or Michael will go on to do anything at all in the NFL? Because I don't, that's for sure.
 
'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
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The glaring difference between Tannehill and the rest on that list (outside Cutler and Locker)? Tannehill has a cannon. It's easy to overcome some of those early career mistakes when you can sling it.
 
I thought I hated this guy, but was intrigued by his preseason. Usually with rookies, you have to throw out everything you believed about them and their draft position the minute they have some NFL film to go on. In other words, I'm turning 180 and hopping on board.

 
'doowain said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
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The glaring difference between Tannehill and the rest on that list (outside Cutler and Locker)? Tannehill has a cannon. It's easy to overcome some of those early career mistakes when you can sling it.
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Kyle Boller, J.P Losman, and Patrick Ramsey all had cannons as well. Not to mention, most scouting reports I've read have said something like "He has the arm strength to make all the necessary throws" of Tannehill, I don't recall reading anything that has said his arm strength is extraordinary.
 
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'Time Kibitzer said:
'doowain said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
Click to expand...
The glaring difference between Tannehill and the rest on that list (outside Cutler and Locker)? Tannehill has a cannon. It's easy to overcome some of those early career mistakes when you can sling it.
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Kyle Boller, J.P Losman, and Patrick Ramsey all had cannons as well. Not to mention, most scouting reports I've read have said something like "He has the arm strength to make all the necessary throws" of Tannehill, I don't recall reading anything that has said his arm strength is extraordinary.
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OK....maybe Boller.
 
'trader jake said:
'ShaHBucks said:
High turnover type.
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He has a little too much confidence in his arm/accuracy. Assuming Tannehill plays 14+ games I'd be very surprised if he doesn't lead the league in interceptions...and that's in an NFL with 5 rookie starting quarterbacks and many more second and third year guys.Also, he doesn't know which teams play in what divisions? Weak. :mellow:
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:lmao: :lmao: Maybe it's because he played WR college?? Seems to be his every excuse.

 
A lot of criticism of Tannehill based upon the statistics of other QBs. Seems silly. Did anyone actually watch him play at A&M or in the preseason and come away with anything negative to say about him, or are people going to write him off because Patrick Ramsey failed in the NFL?

I never saw him play at A&M, but I saw him in the preseason, and what he looked like to me was very consistent with what guys like Waldman and Cosell have said about him - they guy can play in the NFL. I will go with my eyes, and the opinions of guys like Waldman and Cosell over the career of Patrick Ramsey as a magical indicator of how Tannehill will perform as a pro. I also could care less who he thinks plays in the NFC east. Completely irrelevant to his ability to play QB in the NFL.

I am on board.

 
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'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
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How many of those guys started their junior season as a WR?
 
'ChuckLiddell said:
A lot of criticism of Tannehill based upon the statistics of other QBs. Seems silly. Did anyone actually watch him play at A&M or in the preseason and come away with anything negative to say about him, or are people going to write him off because Patrick Ramsey failed in the NFL?I never saw him play at A&M, but I saw him in the preseason, and what he looked like to me was very consistent with what guys like Waldman and Cosell have said about him - they guy can play in the NFL. I will go with my eyes, and the opinions of guys like Waldman and Cosell over the career of Patrick Ramsey as a magical indicator of how Tannehill will perform as a pro. I also could care less who he thinks plays in the NFC east. Completely irrelevant to his ability to play QB in the NFL.I am on board.
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That's the thing, pretty well everyone admits he looks the part, has all the physical tools, etc. etc. And I'm not advocating to ignore the eye test when judging players, I'm simply pointing to the fact that to ignore statistics altogether is a foolish mistake. If a player is as good as he looks it should show up in the box scores at some point, but for Tannehill it never has. Lots of draft experts say he looked great at Texas A&M, but in his numbers suggest he wasn't near as good as he looked. You say he looked good in the preseason, but with a 52.6% completion percentage, a TD/INt ratio of 1, and a YPA of 5.3, the stats suggest he sure didn't play as well as he may have looked.
'FF Ninja said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
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How many of those guys started their junior season as a WR?
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I don't get this logic. Am I supposed to look more favorably on him because he has little QB experience? That's a negative attribute, not a positive. Not only that, but why are we to assume that he's automatically going to continue to progress as a QB? The answer to that question is we shouldn't, which is why I personally believe drafting project players in the first round of the NFL draft is tremendously risky, especially with a top 10 pick. Even in dynasty fantasy leagues, I don't want that kind of risk on my team.
 
'Time Kibitzer said:
'ChuckLiddell said:
A lot of criticism of Tannehill based upon the statistics of other QBs. Seems silly. Did anyone actually watch him play at A&M or in the preseason and come away with anything negative to say about him, or are people going to write him off because Patrick Ramsey failed in the NFL?

I never saw him play at A&M, but I saw him in the preseason, and what he looked like to me was very consistent with what guys like Waldman and Cosell have said about him - they guy can play in the NFL. I will go with my eyes, and the opinions of guys like Waldman and Cosell over the career of Patrick Ramsey as a magical indicator of how Tannehill will perform as a pro. I also could care less who he thinks plays in the NFC east. Completely irrelevant to his ability to play QB in the NFL.

I am on board.
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That's the thing, pretty well everyone admits he looks the part, has all the physical tools, etc. etc. And I'm not advocating to ignore the eye test when judging players, I'm simply pointing to the fact that to ignore statistics altogether is a foolish mistake. If a player is as good as he looks it should show up in the box scores at some point, but for Tannehill it never has. Lots of draft experts say he looked great at Texas A&M, but in his numbers suggest he wasn't near as good as he looked. You say he looked good in the preseason, but with a 52.6% completion percentage, a TD/INt ratio of 1, and a YPA of 5.3, the stats suggest he sure didn't play as well as he may have looked.
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Blaine Gabbert's 2011 preseason: 50.0% completion percentage, a TD/INt ratio of 1, and a YPA of 5.2. He did get sacked less (4 to Gabbert's 7).To be fair though, even rookie QB's who do well don't always play well in the preseason - Cam Newton was pretty bad too last year.

 
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He has looked good and his numbers would be better if the talent around him wasn't the worst in football. Bush is the only guy who can add something of value to the offense. Their receivers/TE are without question, the worst in football. The OL is not the worst and the RB's are not the worst, but overall a terrible supporting cast. This means that from a fantasy perspective you are better off letting someone else draft him because he will not put up good numbers and then get him later...unless you can grab him late (Dynasty). In a redraft he will have little value

 
'cstu said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
'ChuckLiddell said:
A lot of criticism of Tannehill based upon the statistics of other QBs. Seems silly. Did anyone actually watch him play at A&M or in the preseason and come away with anything negative to say about him, or are people going to write him off because Patrick Ramsey failed in the NFL?

I never saw him play at A&M, but I saw him in the preseason, and what he looked like to me was very consistent with what guys like Waldman and Cosell have said about him - they guy can play in the NFL. I will go with my eyes, and the opinions of guys like Waldman and Cosell over the career of Patrick Ramsey as a magical indicator of how Tannehill will perform as a pro. I also could care less who he thinks plays in the NFC east. Completely irrelevant to his ability to play QB in the NFL.

I am on board.
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That's the thing, pretty well everyone admits he looks the part, has all the physical tools, etc. etc. And I'm not advocating to ignore the eye test when judging players, I'm simply pointing to the fact that to ignore statistics altogether is a foolish mistake. If a player is as good as he looks it should show up in the box scores at some point, but for Tannehill it never has. Lots of draft experts say he looked great at Texas A&M, but in his numbers suggest he wasn't near as good as he looked. You say he looked good in the preseason, but with a 52.6% completion percentage, a TD/INt ratio of 1, and a YPA of 5.3, the stats suggest he sure didn't play as well as he may have looked.
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Blaine Gabbert's 2011 preseason: 50.0% completion percentage, a TD/INt ratio of 1, and a YPA of 5.2. He did get sacked less (4 to Gabbert's 7).To be fair though, even rookie QB's who do well don't always play well in the preseason - Cam Newton was pretty bad too last year.
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Very true, the preseason is also very short so it certainly not a particularly meaningful sample size either. I'm just pointing out that whenever Tannehill plays there are people that say he looks great even though his numbers always turn out to tell a different story.
 
'Time Kibitzer said:
'cstu said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
'ChuckLiddell said:
A lot of criticism of Tannehill based upon the statistics of other QBs. Seems silly. Did anyone actually watch him play at A&M or in the preseason and come away with anything negative to say about him, or are people going to write him off because Patrick Ramsey failed in the NFL?

I never saw him play at A&M, but I saw him in the preseason, and what he looked like to me was very consistent with what guys like Waldman and Cosell have said about him - they guy can play in the NFL. I will go with my eyes, and the opinions of guys like Waldman and Cosell over the career of Patrick Ramsey as a magical indicator of how Tannehill will perform as a pro. I also could care less who he thinks plays in the NFC east. Completely irrelevant to his ability to play QB in the NFL.

I am on board.
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That's the thing, pretty well everyone admits he looks the part, has all the physical tools, etc. etc. And I'm not advocating to ignore the eye test when judging players, I'm simply pointing to the fact that to ignore statistics altogether is a foolish mistake. If a player is as good as he looks it should show up in the box scores at some point, but for Tannehill it never has. Lots of draft experts say he looked great at Texas A&M, but in his numbers suggest he wasn't near as good as he looked. You say he looked good in the preseason, but with a 52.6% completion percentage, a TD/INt ratio of 1, and a YPA of 5.3, the stats suggest he sure didn't play as well as he may have looked.
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Blaine Gabbert's 2011 preseason: 50.0% completion percentage, a TD/INt ratio of 1, and a YPA of 5.2. He did get sacked less (4 to Gabbert's 7).To be fair though, even rookie QB's who do well don't always play well in the preseason - Cam Newton was pretty bad too last year.
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Very true, the preseason is also very short so it certainly not a particularly meaningful sample size either. I'm just pointing out that whenever Tannehill plays there are people that say he looks great even though his numbers always turn out to tell a different story.
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Its too bad he cannot catch is own passes, because nobody else does - not even the ones thrown perfectly. Thats what you dont see in the box score that I saw by watching every snap. Legedu Naanee is his top WR on the outside, which is pathetic. Between him and Fasano, they cost Tannehill probably 20% points on his completion percentage with bad drops, and at least one easy TD.
 
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'ChuckLiddell said:
A lot of criticism of Tannehill based upon the statistics of other QBs. Seems silly. Did anyone actually watch him play at A&M or in the preseason and come away with anything negative to say about him, or are people going to write him off because Patrick Ramsey failed in the NFL?I never saw him play at A&M, but I saw him in the preseason, and what he looked like to me was very consistent with what guys like Waldman and Cosell have said about him - they guy can play in the NFL. I will go with my eyes, and the opinions of guys like Waldman and Cosell over the career of Patrick Ramsey as a magical indicator of how Tannehill will perform as a pro. I also could care less who he thinks plays in the NFC east. Completely irrelevant to his ability to play QB in the NFL.I am on board.
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"Men lie, woman lie, numbers don't" Eyes can deceive, unless there is prof that Waldman, Mayoc, Cossell or whoever have a 60-70% track record on players then it's just a hobby. I could blindly go against everything they say and be right half the time. Case and point did any of them lead you to believe Nick Foles could be better than Weeden or TannIhill? Some people swear by numbers some hate them, the best talent evaluators are unbiasedly somewhere in the middle. These are the same people that bought u Blane Gabbert and said Andy Dalton wouldn't succeed. That fact that he doesn't know the Chiefs is a divisional game is funny. Nobody is knocking him for that, just a joke.
 
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'ShaHBucks said:
"Men lie, woman lie, numbers don't" Eyes can deceive, unless there is prof that Waldman, Mayoc, Cossell or whoever have a 60-70% track record on players then it's just a hobby. I could blindly go against everything they say and be right half the time. Case and point did any of them lead you to believe Nick Foles could be better than Weeden or TannIhill? Some people swear by numbers some hate them, the best talent evaluators are unbiasedly somewhere in the middle. These are the same people that bought u Blane Gabbert and said Andy Dalton wouldn't succeed. That fact that he doesn't know the Chiefs is a divisional game is funny. Nobody is knocking him for that, just a joke.
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This post is full of so many logical fallacies it is hard to take your opinion seriously. Numbers can definitely "lie" in regard to fantasy football. Take a perfect pass that is dropped by the WR and turns into an interception. In the boxscore it would appear that the QB made a bad play, when in reality he made an excellent pass. Or how about if a WR takes a poorly thrown screen pass for a 50+ yard TD. The YPA, QB rating, completion percentage, etc. for the QB would get a very healthy boost, when in reality his play actually had little or nothing to do with the play.Waldman, Mayock, and Cosell all make a living (as in they get paid good money) scouting NFL potential. By definition this is no longer a hobby. If you really think you are just as likely to hit on a player these guys loathe, as you are one that they love, I want you in my league. These guys have spent countless hours for many years (in Cosell's case 32 years)studying actual gametape. If you think their insight means nothing then you are sorely mistaken. Plus, Cosell hated Gabbert as a prospect. Perhaps you should research his opinion before throwing out generalizations. Beyond that, it's too early to tell if Dalton will succeed or if Gabbert is a failure.One good preseason does not an NFL career make. We won't even know if Nick Foles is a startable NFL QB until he gets a chance. The fact that you are already putting him ahead of Tannehill and Weeden is laughable to me, and shows me that you put way too much value in preseason games.Lastly, the Chiefs are not a divisional game for him, so this latest jokes on you.
 
'Liquid Tension said:
This means that from a fantasy perspective you are better off letting someone else draft him because he will not put up good numbers and then get him later...unless you can grab him late (Dynasty). In a redraft he will have little value
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This thread is definitely geared toward dynasty. I wouldn't trust any rookie QB in redraft. Tannehill is borderline unrosterable in redraft imo.
 
'ChuckLiddell said:
A lot of criticism of Tannehill based upon the statistics of other QBs. Seems silly.
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I agree. Although it is not totally worthless to analyze statistical trends, I try to analyze each prospect individually. If you have two players you rank equally, by all means use the stats to help differentiate, but to totally write off a guy based on a trend seems silly to me.
 
'Zow said:
That said, I really don't get the decision not to start Matt Moore. Guy played well last year, is by all accounts a good team leader guy, and Miami is decent enough to compete. Let Tannehill develop and bring him in if the team starts out 2-6 or something.
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This.The Dolphins are rebuilding and their wide receivers are among the worst in the NFL. Let the kid hold a clipboard until midseason and then throw him out there. I get that rookie QB's are starting all over the place but when a player started his college career as a wide receiver and the talent around him at the NFL level is low...why risk it so early? The new coaching staff knows offense but they seem to be taking a very short-term view of the QB position.Moore is nothing special and Tannehill knows the offense as well as anybody, but that still doesn't mean he should be starting week 1. I like the kid's cannon for an arm, his confidence, and his fantasy football upside but for his development I think he'd be better served learning some lessons from the bench and in the film room to start the season.
 
'ChuckLiddell said:
I never saw him play at A&M
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I did. Pretty much every game.He wasn't very good. Perhaps he will be better in the pros, but to do so he will need 1) time 2) a good supporting cast. He has neither. Perhaps he will be decent in two or three years, but that's his ceiling IMHO. He's going to stuggle in a big big way this season. I'd say he would be the worst fantasy QB but he might get some garbage time points b/c Miami is so bad and will be always playing from behind.
 
'Shanahanigans said:
This post is full of so many logical fallacies it is hard to take your opinion seriously.

Numbers can definitely "lie" in regard to fantasy football. Take a perfect pass that is dropped by the WR and turns into an interception. In the boxscore it would appear that the QB made a bad play, when in reality he made an excellent pass. Or how about if a WR takes a poorly thrown screen pass for a 50+ yard TD. The YPA, QB rating, completion percentage, etc. for the QB would get a very healthy boost, when in reality his play actually had little or nothing to do with the play.

There's actually stats for this lol

Waldman, Mayock, and Cosell all make a living (as in they get paid good money) scouting NFL potential. By definition this is no longer a hobby. If you really think you are just as likely to hit on a player these guys loathe, as you are one that they love, I want you in my league. These guys have spent countless hours for many years (in Cosell's case 32 years)studying actual gametape. If you think their insight means nothing then you are sorely mistaken. Plus, Cosell hated Gabbert as a prospect. Perhaps you should research his opinion before throwing out generalizations. Beyond that, it's too early to tell if Dalton will succeed or if Gabbert is a failure.

if you ask any of those guys they would do what they do free of charge but they happen to get paid. Cossell is better than most, he's not really even a NCAA guy. But do remember him being the first to say Gabbert sucks but ok it's too early for me to say it. I also remember him saying Dalton cant spin the ball or sum ish like that so he didn't like him. A reason why I say eyes can deceive. Every year there's bums like "NFL ready" Jimmy Clausen or Laser arm" Jamarcass Russell that get touted ahead of some real prospects, good luck weeding out the missed by banking on every consensus mock you can find. After a while you realize they all just recycle the same info, that's a big reason why I spent 0$ on subscriptions this year and did my own homework instead of being thrown in every direction by different expert. I dont need a degree in scouting, Even if I'm wrong I'm managing my teams and lost my money how I want.

One good preseason does not an NFL career make. We won't even know if Nick Foles is a startable NFL QB until he gets a chance. The fact that you are already putting him ahead of Tannehill and Weeden is laughable to me, and shows me that you put way too much value in preseason games.

I'll go as far as saying he's the best QB on the Eagles so laugh some more :shrug: . I've been watching him throw fades into people's side pocket and darts into Wr's numbers for years, not just a preseason. The funny thing Is you can actually track Andy Reids Qb picks vs Cle and Mia history. I would blindly bet you that Andy is right if I could

Lastly, the Chiefs are not a divisional game for him, so this latest jokes on you. Lol I played WR in college so I'm excused
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'trader jake said:
'Zow said:
That said, I really don't get the decision not to start Matt Moore. Guy played well last year, is by all accounts a good team leader guy, and Miami is decent enough to compete. Let Tannehill develop and bring him in if the team starts out 2-6 or something.
Click to expand...
This.The Dolphins are rebuilding and their wide receivers are among the worst in the NFL. Let the kid hold a clipboard until midseason and then throw him out there. I get that rookie QB's are starting all over the place but when a player started his college career as a wide receiver and the talent around him at the NFL level is low...why risk it so early? The new coaching staff knows offense but they seem to be taking a very short-term view of the QB position.Moore is nothing special and Tannehill knows the offense as well as anybody, but that still doesn't mean he should be starting week 1. I like the kid's cannon for an arm, his confidence, and his fantasy football upside but for his development I think he'd be better served learning some lessons from the bench and in the film room to start the season.
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This is a valid point. I am generally a fan of letting QBs develop for at least a year before starting. I think this is part of the reason Rodgers has been so successful. Hopefully Tannehill doesn't lose all confidence after being thrown to the wolves right away.At the same time, the coaches must think he gives them the best chance to win now or else they wouldn't have handed him the job. So, this argument can be used in a positive or negative way when analyzing Tannehill.
 
'ShaHBucks said:
There's actually stats for this lol

if you ask any of those guys they would do what they do free of charge but they happen to get paid.

The funny thing Is you can actually track Andy Reids Qb picks vs Cle and Mia history. I would blindly bet you that Andy is right if I could
Click to expand...
Which stats are you referring to?Do you have some sort of mind-reading technology to make this statement? Even if they theoretically would do it for free, they wouldn't have enough time (having to work some other job) to analyze every play from every player which is essentially what they do.

Andy Reid always picks superstar QBs, just look at Kevin Kolb, Mike Kafka, AJ Feeley, and Andy Hall; they are all Hall of Fame bound. Back in the real world, the only stud QB he's ever picked was Donovan McNabb 13 years ago.

 
'Shanahanigans said:
'ShaHBucks said:
There's actually stats for this lol

if you ask any of those guys they would do what they do free of charge but they happen to get paid.

The funny thing Is you can actually track Andy Reids Qb picks vs Cle and Mia history. I would blindly bet you that Andy is right if I could
Click to expand...
Which stats are you referring to?Do you have some sort of mind-reading technology to make this statement? Even if they theoretically would do it for free, they wouldn't have enough time (having to work some other job) to analyze every play from every player which is essentially what they do.

Andy Reid always picks superstar QBs, just look at Kevin Kolb, Mike Kafka, AJ Feeley, and Andy Hall; they are all Hall of Fame bound. Back in the real world, the only stud QB he's ever picked was Donovan McNabb 13 years ago.
Click to expand...
The stats I don't care to share with you because you know everything. I will say they had me high on Eli Manning last year even after throwing the most ints on his career, and low on Josh Freeman won the numbers considered more lucky than good. Wait you actually mean he picked Donavan McNabb ahead of Akili Smith who was Mel Kipers top QB along with Tim Couch? Or Mike Vick who was a fantasy god in 2011. Tell me Kolb's numbers when he started as a Eagle. He would be a top 10 qb if he wasnt concussed. No one else was named a opening day starter under Reid and that's saying a lot compared to Mia and Cle threw the years. The rest are late round projects not top 10 likely bust like the guy who bandwagon your driving. Even if you do like Tannihill theres still a ton of red flags. Feely actually went to Miami lol. Kafka I don't know much about, but its not shocking a smart team like the Pats took the first look at him. Foles outplayed the who dam league in the preseason so Kafka was extendable. Vick will get hurt eventually and I'll be tooting my horn when he winning poy like Kolb was back in his day. Anything else?

 
'ShaHBucks said:
'Shanahanigans said:
'ShaHBucks said:
There's actually stats for this lol

if you ask any of those guys they would do what they do free of charge but they happen to get paid.

The funny thing Is you can actually track Andy Reids Qb picks vs Cle and Mia history. I would blindly bet you that Andy is right if I could
Click to expand...
Which stats are you referring to?Do you have some sort of mind-reading technology to make this statement? Even if they theoretically would do it for free, they wouldn't have enough time (having to work some other job) to analyze every play from every player which is essentially what they do.

Andy Reid always picks superstar QBs, just look at Kevin Kolb, Mike Kafka, AJ Feeley, and Andy Hall; they are all Hall of Fame bound. Back in the real world, the only stud QB he's ever picked was Donovan McNabb 13 years ago.
Click to expand...
The stats I don't care to share with you because you know everything. I will say they had me high on Eli Manning last year even after throwing the most ints on his career, and low on Josh Freeman won the numbers considered more lucky than good. Wait you actually mean he picked Donavan McNabb ahead of Akili Smith who was Mel Kipers top QB along with Tim Couch? Or Mike Vick who was a fantasy god in 2011. Tell me Kolb's numbers when he started as a Eagle. He would be a top 10 qb if he wasnt concussed. No one else was named a opening day starter under Reid and that's saying a lot compared to Mia and Cle threw the years. The rest are late round projects not top 10 likely bust like the guy who bandwagon your driving. Even if you do like Tannihill theres still a ton of red flags. Feely actually went to Miami lol. Kafka I don't know much about, but its not shocking a smart team like the Pats took the first look at him. Foles outplayed the who dam league in the preseason so Kafka was extendable. Vick will get hurt eventually and I'll be tooting my horn when he winning poy like Kolb was back in his day. Anything else?
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Holy spell check!
 
'Time Kibitzer said:
'FF Ninja said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
List of QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who had a Yards Per Attempt of 7.5 or worse in their senior season in the NCAA:Joey HarringtonPatrick RamseyKyle BollerRex GrossmanJ.P LosmanJay CutlerBrady QuinnMatt RyanJake LockerBlaine GabbertChristian PonderRyan TannehillMaybe he can pull off a Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler kind of career, but personally I think a Joey Harrington/Brady Quinn type future is much more likely.
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How many of those guys started their junior season as a WR?
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I don't get this logic. Am I supposed to look more favorably on him because he has little QB experience? That's a negative attribute, not a positive. Not only that, but why are we to assume that he's automatically going to continue to progress as a QB? The answer to that question is we shouldn't, which is why I personally believe drafting project players in the first round of the NFL draft is tremendously risky, especially with a top 10 pick. Even in dynasty fantasy leagues, I don't want that kind of risk on my team.
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:rolleyes: No, you're not supposed to look favorably on him because he has little QB experience, but I am implying that maybe you shouldn't draw silly comparisons between his senior season and the senior season of players who were starting at QB for the 3rd or 4th season.And YOU don't have to assume he's going to continue to progress, but people draft all QBs, even ones who have started at QB in college for FOUR seasons, with the assumption that they will continue to progress when they reach the NFL. In fact, they are expected to progress from their 1st NFL season to their 2nd, and from their 2nd to their 3rd. Maybe after 5-6 seasons they are expected to just be who they are. So I'm not sure what your point was with the second question. Not a single starting QB in the NFL has not progressed from college, so yes, it is assumed that a drafted player will progress. But no, you personally are under no obligation to assume that if you don't want to. When you GM a team, you can choose to only draft QBs who are already playing at an elite NFL level.
 
'ShaHBucks said:
'Shanahanigans said:
'ShaHBucks said:
There's actually stats for this lol

if you ask any of those guys they would do what they do free of charge but they happen to get paid.

The funny thing Is you can actually track Andy Reids Qb picks vs Cle and Mia history. I would blindly bet you that Andy is right if I could
Click to expand...
Which stats are you referring to?Do you have some sort of mind-reading technology to make this statement? Even if they theoretically would do it for free, they wouldn't have enough time (having to work some other job) to analyze every play from every player which is essentially what they do.

Andy Reid always picks superstar QBs, just look at Kevin Kolb, Mike Kafka, AJ Feeley, and Andy Hall; they are all Hall of Fame bound. Back in the real world, the only stud QB he's ever picked was Donovan McNabb 13 years ago.
Click to expand...
The stats I don't care to share with you because you know everything. I will say they had me high on Eli Manning last year even after throwing the most ints on his career, and low on Josh Freeman won the numbers considered more lucky than good. Wait you actually mean he picked Donavan McNabb ahead of Akili Smith who was Mel Kipers top QB along with Tim Couch? Or Mike Vick who was a fantasy god in 2011. Tell me Kolb's numbers when he started as a Eagle. He would be a top 10 qb if he wasnt concussed. No one else was named a opening day starter under Reid and that's saying a lot compared to Mia and Cle threw the years. The rest are late round projects not top 10 likely bust like the guy who bandwagon your driving. Even if you do like Tannihill theres still a ton of red flags. Feely actually went to Miami lol. Kafka I don't know much about, but its not shocking a smart team like the Pats took the first look at him. Foles outplayed the who dam league in the preseason so Kafka was extendable. Vick will get hurt eventually and I'll be tooting my horn when he winning poy like Kolb was back in his day. Anything else?
Click to expand...
No, I do not know everything, that is why I asked to which stats you are referring. Please enlighten me.Mike Vick had plenty of great fantasy seasons without Reid. And what about last year? Vick was far from a fantasy god last year under Reid. Oh wait, I forgot you omit any stats that don't help your argument.

Are you claiming that QB is completely reliant on the system the QB is in? So, you think the only reason Kolb lost out to fifth round pick John Skelton is because he didn't have Andy Reid to coach him up? Since you don't bother to research anything I will for you. Kolb's stats as an Eagle were:

62% completion percentage, 1938 Yards, 6.8 YPA, 11 TD, 10 INT, and was sacked 18 times in 12 games, 7 of which he started. These are not the stats of a Top 10 QB, but keep telling yourself that Kolb's failures are due only to injuries and bad coaching.

You told me to research Andy Reid's track record as a QB drafter. I did. Then you disregard all the picks he made. Go ahead and keep believing that Andy Reid is an expert on drafting QBs even in the face of all evidence. The fact is that all QBs except for one he picked with the 2nd overall pick have flamed out, or in Feeley's case been average at best. Nick Foles was a late 3rd round pick. So based on Andy Reid's track record, which you touted as being amazing in your earlier post, Foles will most likely flame out or be a below average starter.

 
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