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Dynasty: 2013 Off-season Grocery List


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#1 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:39 AM

I am trying to avoid the term "Buy Low" as it seems subjective and every league is different. But who is on your list to hopefully acquire the off-season, and why? Stevan Ridley: I've always been a Ridley fan, but I've gone back and forth on his dynasty value; early on bought everywhere, later, tried to sell. The pendulum is swinging back and he's on my buy list. He is very situation dependant, so invest accordingly, but I think his role is safe. I personally don't feel that Vereen is a threat to Ridley's role, but rather carving out a separate niche. I think Ridley's production/age ratio is not valued quite as much as it should be. In leagues where RBs are especially valuable, Ridley seems like a guy whose owners will at least listen; and in many leagues - that's something. Cecil Shorts: After going back and watching some Jacksonville games, I'm sold. He's still very much under the radar, and the hobby is going to require that he "do it again" before they value what his talent/youth warrants. I hope to buy him before he does it again. Concussions are scary but he hasn't had Collie/Jackson/Best concussion yet. I'll take that risk into account, but his price is so low that it won't hinder my pursuit. Justin Blackmon: He's not a Bryant/Julio/Green level talent, but Hakeem Nicks/Michael Crabtree is a possibility, if not likely. His pro-rated 2nd half season numbers are very nice. His route running appeared to "click" and he has always been a threat after the catch. Cam Newton: The new toy feel seems to be wearing off for many owners and he is no longer un-touchable. But shouldn't he be? He has the most fantasy points over a two year span for a QB starting their career...ever. The slow start was as much external issues as it was Cam, and once the play-calling and scheme was adjusted, he bounced right back. There are more and more running QBs coming into the league and that does threaten Cam's potential - the more providing what he provides, the less valuable he is. But not many of them are as smart about running (sliding, getting down/out of bounds) and none of them are 6'6" 250. The running QB, as he is used today, is still an experiment at the NFL level. But Cam is a guy I am willing to bet on staying healthy; not so much with the others. Jordy Nelson: Hamstrings suck and limit production. Expect big things in 2013; 2011-like things. Cobb is not a threat to Jordy's production. Miles Austin/Hakeem Nicks/DMC/ Demarco Murray: Token injury nominees. Gambles I am usually willing to make - sometimes they pay off, sometimes they don't. But they're fun. Dwayne Harris: Talented WR3's can produce in Garrett's offense. Harris is that. He reminds me a bit of what Miles Austin was before he broke out. Won't project that kind of breakout, but he can be productive. Miles Austin is not a lock to make the roster, and Harris would have a good shot to start opposite Dez. Maurice Jones-Drew: He's simply the cheapest threat to be a 3-down, pass catching, goal line back. I think the dynasty community can often undervalue SINGLE top 5-8 RB seasons. MJD would be worth his current price if he only gave us one more. 2 more and he's a steal. He is the type of special talent that I could see playing into his 30's. His knees scare me more than his age. Rob Housler: How is this guy not getting more buzz? Fast, athletic, starting TE whose new GM loves him and due a major QB upgrade. High 3rd round pick despite being raw - my kind of buy.

The Gronk.




#2 One More Rep

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:51 AM

Nice ListDavid WilsonLamar MillerRueben RandleBrandon LaFellWilson and Blackmon are very expensive Groceries at the moment though

Edited by One More Rep, 23 January 2013 - 08:53 AM.


#3 Bronx Bomber

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:51 AM

I already bought Nelson so I like that call. Crabtree. Just when I thought he got too expensive maybe the new arrest isdue brings it back down..- and if I cant get him I'll go for AJ Jenkins as a throw in type. David Wilson. Enough threads already about him. Daryl Richardson. Drafted him in one league already and in a mock and both times people were upset and hoping he'd drop. Some might doubt his imvolvement though.Britt. Not because Im super high on him but someone might be ready to give up.-Kendall Wright because of his talent but Britt's injury/ offseason will make him valuable as a sell high if Britt does miss time again due to either. Or just keep Wright as a solid WR2/3Maclin- Maybe missed the buy low with Chip now in town

Edited by Bronx Bomber, 23 January 2013 - 08:52 AM.

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#4 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:53 AM

Maclin- Maybe missed the buy low with Chip now in town

Good call. Agree that he should be targeted.

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#5 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:58 AM

Successfully plucked up Ryan Williams and Hakeem Nicks so far.Beanie is on the way out, the other RB's aren't the answer, the front office will be focusing on other areas of the team this offseason, and Arians has already spoke glowingly about Williams. Moderate risk/high reward guy.I think Nicks' offseason foot injury was the problem last year, get to the Nicks owner while he is frustrated.I also like the MJD and Jordy calls, both seem reasonable acquisitions - from both a cost perspective and an owner likely to be looking to move them. Personally, I find it difficult to pry young guys off other owners. Makes sense too. Being the Dwayne Harris owner, he isn't going anywhere. He won't net much in a trade, unless I think there's no chance he pans out he makes the most sense on my roster as a wait and see dart. Younger guys that had strong second half's too - yeah, I'd love to get my hands on Blackmon, Crabtree, David Wilson, etc. but...are there owners really going to be looking to sell?

#6 Spin

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:04 AM

I am trying to avoid the term "Buy Low" as it seems subjective and every league is different. But who is on your list to hopefully acquire the off-season, and why? Stevan Ridley: I've always been a Ridley fan, but I've gone back and forth on his dynasty value; early on bought everywhere, later, tried to sell. The pendulum is swinging back and he's on my buy list. He is very situation dependant, so invest accordingly, but I think his role is safe. I personally don't feel that Vereen is a threat to Ridley's role, but rather carving out a separate niche. I think Ridley's production/age ratio is not valued quite as much as it should be. In leagues where RBs are especially valuable, Ridley seems like a guy whose owners will at least listen; and in many leagues - that's something. Cecil Shorts: After going back and watching some Jacksonville games, I'm sold. He's still very much under the radar, and the hobby is going to require that he "do it again" before they value what his talent/youth warrants. I hope to buy him before he does it again. Concussions are scary but he hasn't had Collie/Jackson/Best concussion yet. I'll take that risk into account, but his price is so low that it won't hinder my pursuit. Justin Blackmon: He's not a Bryant/Julio/Green level talent, but Hakeem Nicks/Michael Crabtree is a possibility, if not likely. His pro-rated 2nd half season numbers are very nice. His route running appeared to "click" and he has always been a threat after the catch. Cam Newton: The new toy feel seems to be wearing off for many owners and he is no longer un-touchable. But shouldn't he be? He has the most fantasy points over a two year span for a QB starting their career...ever. The slow start was as much external issues as it was Cam, and once the play-calling and scheme was adjusted, he bounced right back. There are more and more running QBs coming into the league and that does threaten Cam's potential - the more providing what he provides, the less valuable he is. But not many of them are as smart about running (sliding, getting down/out of bounds) and none of them are 6'6" 250. The running QB, as he is used today, is still an experiment at the NFL level. But Cam is a guy I am willing to bet on staying healthy; not so much with the others. Jordy Nelson: Hamstrings suck and limit production. Expect big things in 2013; 2011-like things. Cobb is not a threat to Jordy's production. Miles Austin/Hakeem Nicks/DMC/ Demarco Murray: Token injury nominees. Gambles I am usually willing to make - sometimes they pay off, sometimes they don't. But they're fun. Dwayne Harris: Talented WR3's can produce in Garrett's offense. Harris is that. He reminds me a bit of what Miles Austin was before he broke out. Won't project that kind of breakout, but he can be productive. Miles Austin is not a lock to make the roster, and Harris would have a good shot to start opposite Dez. Maurice Jones-Drew: He's simply the cheapest threat to be a 3-down, pass catching, goal line back. I think the dynasty community can often undervalue SINGLE top 5-8 RB seasons. MJD would be worth his current price if he only gave us one more. 2 more and he's a steal. He is the type of special talent that I could see playing into his 30's. His knees scare me more than his age. Rob Housler: How is this guy not getting more buzz? Fast, athletic, starting TE whose new GM loves him and due a major QB upgrade. High 3rd round pick despite being raw - my kind of buy.

Nice list. I like the Shorts call, but the current owner in my league won't budge on him. What exactly are you offering and considering his price being so low?The only one on this list I have a chance of grabbing is MJD, but RB is my super strength so no need. I love Housler, but was late to get him, and his current owner is convinced he's the next Graham, mainly because he also owns Graham, and spent a 1 round rookie pick on him, and everyone at the time was calling him crazy, who's laughing now :(.

#7 jonboltz

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:05 AM

Dwayne Harris: Talented WR3's can produce in Garrett's offense. Harris is that. He reminds me a bit of what Miles Austin was before he broke out. Won't project that kind of breakout, but he can be productive. Miles Austin is not a lock to make the roster, and Harris would have a good shot to start opposite Dez.

I've dismissed several other people that have pimped Harris because I don't view their posting opinions that strongly. However, I might have to look more at this guy, because my brief research in the past steered me away from him.

#8 JohnnyU

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:07 AM

Maclin- Maybe missed the buy low with Chip now in town

Good call. Agree that he should be targeted.

Maclin is one of the most overrated WRs out there.

Hopes that were high in the heat of September ... can wilt and die in the chill of November. November can be cold and grey, November can be surly with bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early.
- John Facenda



 


#9 Max Power

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:10 AM

Cutler seems like a good buy right now. Things are going to change in Chicago and I can see him returning to the top 10-12 fantasy QB range. Tresman has a history of doing more with less.

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#10 mental

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:12 AM

Shorts and Blackmon -- I agree, I liked the talent and 2H production from both. I keep asking myself, though, what's my goal in locking up 2 JAC WRs? Say I have Calvin Johnson as my WR1, am I really winning rolling out Shorts and Blackmon as my WR2 and WR3 every week? And if I'm not, are they really worth much when I could get guys like Bess and Hartline, Rice and Baldwin, DHB and Moore, Baldwin and Breaston, etc. for less to significantly less? I'm waiting a year on these guys, there's enough Tebow and MJD comeback risk that I'd rather invest elsewhere and buy even lower if the opportunity presents.

#11 Spin

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:13 AM

Cutler seems like a good buy right now. Things are going to change in Chicago and I can see him returning to the top 10-12 fantasy QB range. Tresman has a history of doing more with less.

Along these same lines, Forte as well?

#12 JohnnyU

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:13 AM

Rob Housler: How is this guy not getting more buzz? Fast, athletic, starting TE whose new GM loves him and due a major QB upgrade. High 3rd round pick despite being raw - my kind of buy.

Hell, if Larry Fitzgerald is irrelevant in that offense I doubt Housler has much of a chance. Here is hoping they fix their QB situation. If they don't, I'm not buying any Arizona WR or TE.

Edited by JohnnyU, 23 January 2013 - 09:14 AM.

Hopes that were high in the heat of September ... can wilt and die in the chill of November. November can be cold and grey, November can be surly with bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early.
- John Facenda



 


#13 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:18 AM

Nice list. I like the Shorts call, but the current owner in my league won't budge on him. What exactly are you offering and considering his price being so low?

Value him as a mid-level WR2. I didn't pay too much attention to him until after the season, because I wasn't catching many Jags games. But I really like him. He's riskier than Cruz was, but like Cruz's breakout season - Shorts was making plays at a very high rate. I like that he can play in the slot, but can more than hold his own on the outside. He's faster than Cruz, but not nearly as polished. Cruz had a higher catch rate, but I think some of that is their QB play. Their seasons really aren't that far off, Cruz just didn't it for longer stretch. The question I have is: can Shorts transform his game like Cruz was forced to do this season, once the attention starts to increase? I am considering his price being low primarily from the start-ups and mocks I have seen. In my only startup I picked him up in the 7th and was really thinking about taking him in the 5th, ahead of Eric Decker.

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#14 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:19 AM

Maclin- Maybe missed the buy low with Chip now in town

Good call. Agree that he should be targeted.

Maclin is one of the most overrated WRs out there.

By whom and based on what?

The Gronk.


#15 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:20 AM

Cutler seems like a good buy right now. Things are going to change in Chicago and I can see him returning to the top 10-12 fantasy QB range. Tresman has a history of doing more with less.

I don't agree that he is a good trade target, what's his upside? A below average starter? I mean, if you don't have a good backup and can get him for dirt cheap, sure, but not seeing a good reason he would be a priority.

#16 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:21 AM

Maclin- Maybe missed the buy low with Chip now in town

Good call. Agree that he should be targeted.

Maclin is one of the most overrated WRs out there.

By whom and based on what?

I don't think over rated is the right word, but I certainly don't think he is a meaningful target. If his owner has soured on him to the point you can get him for backup prices, sure, he's nice depth. I don't see the every week starter appeal though.

#17 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:23 AM

I've dismissed several other people that have pimped Harris because I don't view their posting opinions that strongly. However, I might have to look more at this guy, because my brief research in the past steered me away from him.

I would look into him. His situation is deceptively good for a guy with his talents. He is not suited to be a slot guy, in my opinion. But when the Cowboys go 3 WR, they can put Austin in the slot; when they go 4, Beasley goes in. So he shouldn't be forced into being something he is not. And he can make plays and get open deep. Top level speed and what I would call solid hands. In general, I am interested in picking up the cheaper Cowboys options, too. 2 upgrades on their O-line and they could be what NYG was before Eli's arm called it a night.

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#18 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:23 AM

Rob Housler: How is this guy not getting more buzz? Fast, athletic, starting TE whose new GM loves him and due a major QB upgrade. High 3rd round pick despite being raw - my kind of buy.

Hell, if Larry Fitzgerald is irrelevant in that offense I doubt Housler has much of a chance. Here is hoping they fix their QB situation. If they don't, I'm not buying any Arizona WR or TE.

If you're going to try to buy either you need to do it before they fix the QB situation - not after, it's why I snagged Fitz last year.

#19 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:25 AM

Hell, if Larry Fitzgerald is irrelevant in that offense I doubt Housler has much of a chance. Here is hoping they fix their QB situation. If they don't, I'm not buying any Arizona WR or TE.

His situation is the reason he is still affordable. Thanfully for him, it will improve before he ever plays another snap. And when that happens, I think his value rises dramatically.

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#20 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:25 AM

Shorts and Blackmon -- I agree, I liked the talent and 2H production from both. I keep asking myself, though, what's my goal in locking up 2 JAC WRs? Say I have Calvin Johnson as my WR1, am I really winning rolling out Shorts and Blackmon as my WR2 and WR3 every week? And if I'm not, are they really worth much when I could get guys like Bess and Hartline, Rice and Baldwin, DHB and Moore, Baldwin and Breaston, etc. for less to significantly less? I'm waiting a year on these guys, there's enough Tebow and MJD comeback risk that I'd rather invest elsewhere and buy even lower if the opportunity presents.

Tebow isn't going there, like the Arizona guys if you want either of them you need to get in before they fix QB. I'm not high enough on Shorts to make him a target, although I certainly see the appeal. I'd be surprised if you can get Blackmon after the way he finished the season, his owner would be silly to let him go for anything less than he paid for him last year.

#21 Max Power

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:28 AM

Cutler seems like a good buy right now. Things are going to change in Chicago and I can see him returning to the top 10-12 fantasy QB range. Tresman has a history of doing more with less.

Along these same lines, Forte as well?

PPR wise, Forte should be ok. Looking at Trestman's history, his playcalling is pass heavy. http://www.pro-footb...hes/TresMa0.htm

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#22 jonboltz

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:29 AM

Hell, if Larry Fitzgerald is irrelevant in that offense I doubt Housler has much of a chance. Here is hoping they fix their QB situation. If they don't, I'm not buying any Arizona WR or TE.

His situation is the reason he is still affordable. Thanfully for him, it will improve before he ever plays another snap. And when that happens, I think his value rises dramatically.

As a Fitz owner, I think the ship has already sailed on buying him low. I don't think you are getting him for less than WR12-15 level prices. (Though you may, of course, assume that price is still low for him).The new coach is already in place, and everyone is already under the assumption that he brings in a new QB. Now, if Zona decides to have a 1-year stopgap QB in Matt Moore or Alex Smith, their perceived weaknesses could drive his price back lower again.

#23 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:30 AM

Shorts and Blackmon -- I agree, I liked the talent and 2H production from both. I keep asking myself, though, what's my goal in locking up 2 JAC WRs? Say I have Calvin Johnson as my WR1, am I really winning rolling out Shorts and Blackmon as my WR2 and WR3 every week? And if I'm not, are they really worth much when I could get guys like Bess and Hartline, Rice and Baldwin, DHB and Moore, Baldwin and Breaston, etc. for less to significantly less? I'm waiting a year on these guys, there's enough Tebow and MJD comeback risk that I'd rather invest elsewhere and buy even lower if the opportunity presents.

I haven't adjusted my thinking or rankings for Tebow. If he ends up in Jax, it is far from a given that he wins the job. And I could have sworn I recently heard that they won't be bringing him in. Could be wrong there, though. The reason to lock it up, in my opinion, is talent. Roll them out as your WR2/3 and you'll likely have two of the most talented guys at those spots in your league. And eventually (potentially soon), I think you'll have two of the most productive at that spot too.Also, they both play different positions and do different things, so I don't expect them to compete for targets, but rather compliment each other the way Nicks/Cruz do when healthy.

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#24 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:33 AM

Shorts and Blackmon -- I agree, I liked the talent and 2H production from both. I keep asking myself, though, what's my goal in locking up 2 JAC WRs? Say I have Calvin Johnson as my WR1, am I really winning rolling out Shorts and Blackmon as my WR2 and WR3 every week? And if I'm not, are they really worth much when I could get guys like Bess and Hartline, Rice and Baldwin, DHB and Moore, Baldwin and Breaston, etc. for less to significantly less? I'm waiting a year on these guys, there's enough Tebow and MJD comeback risk that I'd rather invest elsewhere and buy even lower if the opportunity presents.

I haven't adjusted my thinking or rankings for Tebow. If he ends up in Jax, it is far from a given that he wins the job. And I could have sworn I recently heard that they won't be bringing him in. Could be wrong there, though.

You are correct, new GM was specifically asked about Tebow during his opening presser and he firmly replied no, more than once iirc.

#25 Bronx Bomber

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:33 AM

Maclin- Maybe missed the buy low with Chip now in town

Good call. Agree that he should be targeted.

Maclin is one of the most overrated WRs out there.

By whom and based on what?

Exactly. Depends on how you value him. Thats why its a target not a must own list . If the other owner values him more you don't make a trade.

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#26 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:37 AM

Exactly. Depends on how you value him. Thats why its a target not a must own list . If the other owner values him more you don't make a trade.

He is 24 YO former 1st round pick and the #1 WR on a team that is likely to throw the ball around. And if he is overrated - not in my leagues or the in the very small ADP data we have.

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#27 Bronx Bomber

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:40 AM

Exactly. Depends on how you value him. Thats why its a target not a must own list . If the other owner values him more you don't make a trade.

He is 24 YO former 1st round pick and the #1 WR on a team that is likely to throw the ball around. And if he is overrated - not in my leagues or the in the very small ADP data we have.

Right. Im in your side here. I agree

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#28 dewmass

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:46 AM

Successfully plucked up Ryan Williams and Hakeem Nicks so far.Beanie is on the way out, the other RB's aren't the answer, the front office will be focusing on other areas of the team this offseason, and Arians has already spoke glowingly about Williams. Moderate risk/high reward guy.I think Nicks' offseason foot injury was the problem last year, get to the Nicks owner while he is frustrated.I also like the MJD and Jordy calls, both seem reasonable acquisitions - from both a cost perspective and an owner likely to be looking to move them. Personally, I find it difficult to pry young guys off other owners. Makes sense too. Being the Dwayne Harris owner, he isn't going anywhere. He won't net much in a trade, unless I think there's no chance he pans out he makes the most sense on my roster as a wait and see dart. Younger guys that had strong second half's too - yeah, I'd love to get my hands on Blackmon, Crabtree, David Wilson, etc. but...are there owners really going to be looking to sell?

Added Ryan Williams myself this week. Also looking at Shorts and Gordon, but the Gordon owner isn't moving at all and holding out for 1.04+ so may have to settle with Shorts.

#29 Pimpin Joe

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:47 AM

Varying level of prices. Wilson, Hilton, Garcon and Rudolph are all going to cost a decent amount, but think all 3 would be great buys at full price. The rest, might be able to be bought at reasonable value depending on the owners. David Wilson Lamaar MillerRashard MendenhallJacquizz Rodgers - PPR leagues only.TY HiltonKendall WrightGolden TateAntonio BrownPierre GarconRyan BroylesMichael FloydKyle RudolphDwayne Allen

#30 Max Power

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:49 AM

Cutler seems like a good buy right now. Things are going to change in Chicago and I can see him returning to the top 10-12 fantasy QB range. Tresman has a history of doing more with less.

I don't agree that he is a good trade target, what's his upside? A below average starter? I mean, if you don't have a good backup and can get him for dirt cheap, sure, but not seeing a good reason he would be a priority.

I think he has top 10 potential, and yes he is dirt cheap, so why not take the flier. The guy just got a QB guru to be his new HC. There is no doubt Cutler will be putting up more points next year. This isn't a swing for the fence type move, but a low risk and solid reward. The names I normally see in these threads are guys who either up and coming or good players coming off bad years. In my leagues, those guys aren't dealt with much of a discount. As an owner of guys like Nicks, MJD and Blackmon, I'm not looking to trade them and would really only do so if the other owner is offering more than I feel they are worth. Last year I went after Heath Miller, who cost me nothing (Greg Childs to be exact) and that turned out pretty well. These are the type of moves I like to look for at this point in the offseason. Players who have talent and were limited by the old system their team was running.

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#31 jonboltz

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:49 AM

Exactly. Depends on how you value him. Thats why its a target not a must own list . If the other owner values him more you don't make a trade.

He is 24 YO former 1st round pick and the #1 WR on a team that is likely to throw the ball around. And if he is overrated - not in my leagues or the in the very small ADP data we have.

Haven't the Eagles always tossed the ball around a ton? The results have been basically Torrey Smith, with a touch more receptions.

#32 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:51 AM

Exactly. Depends on how you value him. Thats why its a target not a must own list . If the other owner values him more you don't make a trade.

He is 24 YO former 1st round pick and the #1 WR on a team that is likely to throw the ball around. And if he is overrated - not in my leagues or the in the very small ADP data we have.

Don't necessarily agree about the Eagles becoming a pass-heavy team. It's not Kelly's M.O. but then again his roster isn't built like his teams usually are, so keeping an open mind about what exactly he is going to do until I see it take shape.Re Maclin the #1 WR - he has a lot of struggles staying on the field and when he is on there he has not been a difference maker. He's been...alright. More promise than production though.

#33 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:53 AM

Re Maclin the #1 WR - he has a lot of struggles staying on the field and when he is on there he has not been a difference maker. He's been...alright. More promise than production though.

Look at WR's production with Vick at QB and without him. I would love to see Maclin with a guy who is able to regularly hit him in stride on the intermediate routes.

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#34 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:55 AM

Cutler seems like a good buy right now. Things are going to change in Chicago and I can see him returning to the top 10-12 fantasy QB range. Tresman has a history of doing more with less.

I don't agree that he is a good trade target, what's his upside? A below average starter? I mean, if you don't have a good backup and can get him for dirt cheap, sure, but not seeing a good reason he would be a priority.

I think he has top 10 potential, and yes he is dirt cheap, so why not take the flier. The guy just got a QB guru to be his new HC. There is no doubt Cutler will be putting up more points next year. This isn't a swing for the fence type move, but a low risk and solid reward. The names I normally see in these threads are guys who either up and coming or good players coming off bad years. In my leagues, those guys aren't dealt with much of a discount. As an owner of guys like Nicks, MJD and Blackmon, I'm not looking to trade them and would really only do so if the other owner is offering more than I feel they are worth. Last year I went after Heath Miller, who cost me nothing (Greg Childs to be exact) and that turned out pretty well. These are the type of moves I like to look for at this point in the offseason. Players who have talent and were limited by the old system their team was running.

I am in the market for a solid backup with the uncertainty around RG3, Cutler just wasn't one of the first names to come to mind. In fact the Cutler owner in my league currently in rebuild mode is sitting on him and Rivers. I would rather have Rivers, for a backup anyway. Due to age, recent decline, and Cutler's coaching upgrade he is probably cheaper and I think they have similar short term ceilings.I'd just be surprised if you can get Cutler for less than a good QB2 price and his upside is low QB1. Uninspiring imho.

#35 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:58 AM

Re Maclin the #1 WR - he has a lot of struggles staying on the field and when he is on there he has not been a difference maker. He's been...alright. More promise than production though.

Look at WR's production with Vick at QB and without him. I would love to see Maclin with a guy who is able to regularly hit him in stride on the intermediate routes.

That guy currently isn't on the roster, is Kelly going to bring someone else in? and whoever it is will it be something in the typical Kelly mold? or will he break form if he doesn't see a typical Chip QB available and sees a better one? I don't know, I think it's different than Arizona and Jax because I feel more comfortable those teams are looking for downfield passers. I'm not so sure Chip is. And even if he is does Maclin have much more upside than he has shown to date? 4 years and zero 1K+ seasons, consistently in the 60-70 rec range. Meh.

#36 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:05 AM

Haven't the Eagles always tossed the ball around a ton? The results have been basically Torrey Smith, with a touch more receptions.

No. Not with Vick.Vick has only 2x 3,000 yard seasons (barely) and has never thrown for more than 21 TDs. Never more than 423 attemps in a season. I don't see any reason Maclin can't greatly increase his catch total playing in a less traditional, more spread out offense where he can use his quickness more effectively.

Edited by Concept Coop, 23 January 2013 - 10:08 AM.

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#37 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:07 AM

That guy currently isn't on the roster, is Kelly going to bring someone else in? and whoever it is will it be something in the typical Kelly mold? or will he break form if he doesn't see a typical Chip QB available and sees a better one? I don't know, I think it's different than Arizona and Jax because I feel more comfortable those teams are looking for downfield passers. I'm not so sure Chip is. And even if he is does Maclin have much more upside than he has shown to date? 4 years and zero 1K+ seasons, consistently in the 60-70 rec range. Meh.

You're giving me reasons why his value is low; tell me why it should be. Chip can't run as much as he did at Oregon and win; he will be passing the ball more. And he will spread it out more than Reid did which will help Maclin's numbers. Maclin's catch totals went up by a good margin with Foles at QB, even. Give me an upgrade over Foles, and I'm expecting some nice things.

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#38 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:09 AM

Not sure how I forgot about this, but...Ingram. Payton knew he under utilized him his rookie year and he didn't get a chance to correct the problem last year. He will this year.

#39 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:10 AM

Not sure how I forgot about this, but...Ingram. Payton knew he under utilized him his rookie year and he didn't get a chance to correct the problem last year. He will this year.

I agree.

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#40 jonboltz

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:11 AM

Haven't the Eagles always tossed the ball around a ton? The results have been basically Torrey Smith, with a touch more receptions.

No. Not with Vick.Vick has only 2x 3,000 yard seasons (barely) and has never thrown for more than 21 TDs. Never more than 423 attemps in a season. I don't see any reason Maclin can't greatly increase his catch total playing in a less traditional, more spread out offense where he can use his quickness more effectively.

Well, their team passing attempts per year is above average...2012: 7th2011: 13th2010: 11th2009: 12th

#41 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:19 AM

Haven't the Eagles always tossed the ball around a ton? The results have been basically Torrey Smith, with a touch more receptions.

No. Not with Vick.Vick has only 2x 3,000 yard seasons (barely) and has never thrown for more than 21 TDs. Never more than 423 attemps in a season. I don't see any reason Maclin can't greatly increase his catch total playing in a less traditional, more spread out offense where he can use his quickness more effectively.

Well, their team passing attempts per year is above average...2012: 7th2011: 13th2010: 11th2009: 12th

Vick individually. 2012: Vick hurt often/passed more with Foles2011: 21st2010: 23rd2009: McNabbThe Eagles won't need to pass a lot more for Maclin to improve his production. Vick is well below average in most passing metrics. He simply needs a guy that can accurately hit him in stride at the intermediate level.

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#42 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:19 AM

That guy currently isn't on the roster, is Kelly going to bring someone else in? and whoever it is will it be something in the typical Kelly mold? or will he break form if he doesn't see a typical Chip QB available and sees a better one? I don't know, I think it's different than Arizona and Jax because I feel more comfortable those teams are looking for downfield passers. I'm not so sure Chip is. And even if he is does Maclin have much more upside than he has shown to date? 4 years and zero 1K+ seasons, consistently in the 60-70 rec range. Meh.

You're giving me reasons why his value is low; tell me why it should be. Chip can't run as much as he did at Oregon and win; he will be passing the ball more. And he will spread it out more than Reid did which will help Maclin's numbers. Maclin's catch totals went up by a good margin with Foles at QB, even. Give me an upgrade over Foles, and I'm expecting some nice things.

Who is the upgrade to Foles?I'd be more willing to look past Maclin's health issues - constantly banged up during the week, in-and-out of games throughout, a good bet to miss a little time during the year when he's not trying to play hurt - if I thought he could be a special WR but I don't see those skills. I see a good but not great WR that struggles to stay on the field. That's usually a recipe for a complimentary WR, when healthy not a bad guy to toss into the lineup but not one I want to rely on week to week.I haven't made my list yet for next year, but I'd bet he is somewhere between 30 and 40 on my list so if I were pursuing him I'd want to pay a backup WR price for him. I don't see his owner doing that, if he does, great, just not expecting it.

#43 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:21 AM

Who is the upgrade to Foles?I'd be more willing to look past Maclin's health issues - constantly banged up during the week, in-and-out of games throughout, a good bet to miss a little time during the year when he's not trying to play hurt - if I thought he could be a special WR but I don't see those skills. I see a good but not great WR that struggles to stay on the field. That's usually a recipe for a complimentary WR, when healthy not a bad guy to toss into the lineup but not one I want to rely on week to week.I haven't made my list yet for next year, but I'd bet he is somewhere between 30 and 40 on my list so if I were pursuing him I'd want to pay a backup WR price for him. I don't see his owner doing that, if he does, great, just not expecting it.

He's missed 5 games in 4 years. This isn't Hakeem Nicks we are talking about. Or even Dez Bryant. And, I hate to answer your question with a question, but: who is not an upgrade to Nick Foles?

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#44 MAC_32

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:27 AM

Who is the upgrade to Foles?I'd be more willing to look past Maclin's health issues - constantly banged up during the week, in-and-out of games throughout, a good bet to miss a little time during the year when he's not trying to play hurt - if I thought he could be a special WR but I don't see those skills. I see a good but not great WR that struggles to stay on the field. That's usually a recipe for a complimentary WR, when healthy not a bad guy to toss into the lineup but not one I want to rely on week to week.I haven't made my list yet for next year, but I'd bet he is somewhere between 30 and 40 on my list so if I were pursuing him I'd want to pay a backup WR price for him. I don't see his owner doing that, if he does, great, just not expecting it.

He's missed 5 games in 4 years. This isn't Hakeem Nicks we are talking about. Or even Dez Bryant. And, I hate to answer your question with a question, but: who is not an upgrade to Nick Foles?

:lmao: As Foles' biggest critic, I agree, but Chip has given his kudos to Foles before and there may not be a 'Chip Kelly QB' available so he may stick with him for the year. I wouldn't rule it out anyway. Until he is upgraded I assume he stays.Re Maclin, like my argument against Beanie Wells for all these years it's not the quantity of games missed it's how often he pulls himself from games and how he misses practice time due to those injuries too. He battles and tries to stay on the field, but he has had a big problem staying out there all game, and I think that's limiting his ceiling to not much higher than it's been.

#45 Area51Inhabitant

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:27 AM

LaMichael James for certain. Alshon Jeffery could also be a big beneficiary of the QB friendly offense in Chicago. Joe Morgan is a deep sleeper candidate in New Orleans, particularly if he wins the number 2 wr spot opposite of Colston. Robert Turbin is another player who's on my radar as well.

#46 thriftyrocker

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:27 AM

I really don't like Housler at all. Arians is not a TE-friendly coach and there are 3 relevant WRs on the same mediocre team, at least 2 of which are better buys with higher upside. Who is really a buy at TE? I don't know. Moeaki and Cameron got better coaching changes, but neither is roped in enough to be guaranteed targets. Probably Witten is the guy to buy as he's the only guaranteed elite TE with a reasonable price.

#47 SSOG

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:28 AM

Robert Griffin- the time to buy studs is always after a major injury. The public tends to dramatically overprice injury risk- witness Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, etc. Tony Romo- buy-low hall of famer. On a ppg basis, he's basically Peyton Manning, and has been for 6 years, but people rarely price him as a top-10 QB.Ryan Tannehill- when it comes to backup QBs, I want no part of low-upside guys like Dalton, Cutler, Bradford, or Flacco... but I love me some high-ceiling flyers. Alfred Morris / Stevan Ridley- people question their job security. People shouldn't. Demarco Murray / Ryan Mathews- injury buys, although Mathews' collarbones worry me some. Percy Harvin- injury buyWes Welker- if he can be had for WR20 prices, I like it. Either he's back in New England, or someone pays him big money with the intention of featuring him. Either way, he's a great add for a contender. Andre Johnson also fits the mold if people are worried about his age. Vincent Jackson- what does the guy have to do to get respect? In his last 4 full seasons, he's finished 12th, 10th, 10th, and 6th.Greg Olsen- outside of their respective career years, he's essentially scored identical to Witten and Vernon for a fraction of the cost. Low-upside, but cheap as hell. Dwayne Allen- my pick for "what the heck" high-upside gamble. Don't know where he's valued, but he's a great speculative add. Jermichael Finley- again, upside is the name of the game. San Francisco / Denver / Seattle / Houston- in a lot of leagues, defenses (even good defenses) can be had cheaply (a rookie 2nd, perhaps). These four have so much young talent that I'd be thrilled to rely on them for years to come.
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#48 EBF

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:28 AM

I like Blackmon, but it's unlikely that you'll get him for a reasonable price. Whoever owns him probably spent a top 5 rookie pick on him (at minimum) and expects him to become a top player. If he hadn't done well over the second half of the season he might have been cheap, but he was productive down the stretch and his owners won't forget that. He's just too big of a name to be a great bargain. In terms of my shopping list, I've already added Russell Wilson, Ryan Mathews, and Cecil Shorts this offseason. Mathews and Mendenhall are the two guys that I would zero in on if I were looking for instant RB help with decent shelf life. I'm not seeing as much value at WR, but I would consider making offers for Michael Floyd, Santonio Holmes, Andre Roberts, Larry Fitzgerald, Jon Baldwin, Dwayne Bowe, Cecil Shorts, and Chris Givens. I also kind of like TJ Graham because for a guy who was a high pick and showed a couple flashes as a rookie, you can probably get him for just about nothing. Hakeem Nicks is a good call if he can get back to 100%.

#49 Concept Coop

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:37 AM

I really don't like Housler at all. Arians is not a TE-friendly coach and there are 3 relevant WRs on the same mediocre team, at least 2 of which are better buys with higher upside. Who is really a buy at TE? I don't know. Moeaki and Cameron got better coaching changes, but neither is roped in enough to be guaranteed targets. Probably Witten is the guy to buy as he's the only guaranteed elite TE with a reasonable price.

I think we are putting too much stock in situation, considering that we are talking about a 24 YO TE. Especially considering his cost (nothing).

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#50 thriftyrocker

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:43 AM

Robert Griffin- the time to buy studs is always after a major injury. The public tends to dramatically overprice injury risk- witness Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, etc. Tony Romo- buy-low hall of famer. On a ppg basis, he's basically Peyton Manning, and has been for 6 years, but people rarely price him as a top-10 QB.Ryan Tannehill- when it comes to backup QBs, I want no part of low-upside guys like Dalton, Cutler, Bradford, or Flacco... but I love me some high-ceiling flyers.

What is a good price for Griffin? I question whether Tannehill's upside is any higher than Dalton, Cutler, Bradford, or Flacco. If it's mobility, he averaged 12 ypg rushing this year. If it's just because we don't know what he is yet, all those other 4 could also improve. Well, Cutler may be stunted but he still has an arm and could put up Stafford 2011 numbers with decent OL and OC play.




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