Player Spotlight: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Steve Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Bump

Steve Smith was an afterthought at best for me going into 2013, but I found myself forced to take a closer look when I've seen him slip past WR30. Sure, the combination of his age and this offense means that his days of 100 receptions are over, but he finished last year with a flukishly low 4 touchdowns, yet still managed to finish as WR19. In the last 10 years, he has not finished outside of the top 20 except for when he missed 15 games in 2004 and when he had to play with Jimmy Clausen as his starter. That includes some really bad Delhomme years and quite a few Matt Moore games, not to mention a lot of those were 14-15 game seasons. Inn 2013, the receiving corps looks to be the same, so it is hard to imagine he won't see a similar number of targets as he has the past two years (128 and 138). Last year Newton actually threw less than he did in 2011 and completed a lower percentage of his passes. Should he improve rather than regress, then Smith could see numbers closer to his 2011 totals where he finished WR6 (he caught 62% of his targets that year compared to just 53% last year). It is unlikely he'll reproduce his 17.6 ypr, but 79 receptions is not out of the question.

So long as Smith is healthy in 2013, I think he's a great value play as a virtual lock for mid-WR2 points at a WR3 pricetag. Of course if you feel like your team is lagging behind after 6 rounds and you need someone with WR1 upside, then this is not the WR3 you are looking for.

135 targets x 58% = 78 rec x 15.4 ypr = 1200 yds 6 TDs

Hey Sharks,

The Steve Smith spotlight is in the works today, but there is only one set of projections offered here - can some other Sharks jump in and give your take(s) on Smith with some projections, please?

TIA

MW

Steve Smith has been up and down his entire NFL career. In 2003 he had a breakthrough with 88/1110/7 TD, in 2004 he had his season cut short and barely played. Most owners were salivating and grabbed him a good round or two below where he should have been in 2005. That year he managed career highs with 103/1,563/12 TD, most WRs never achieve numbers close to that their entire career in any of the 3 categories.

In 2006, 2007, and 2008 he was consistent with an avg of 83/1150/7 TDs, nothing wrong with those numbers but owners were wanting more and hoping for a little more like what they saw in 2005.

2009 and 2010 were rough years with injuries, bad QB play, coach on his way out, off the field fights with team mates, things were not going well and many owners had seen enough, Smith was falling in most drafts. Then someone named Cam Newton rolled into town and Smith got a resurgence. The last 2 seasons he has avg close to 75/1250/5 TD. He is not a frontline WR anymore, and even as a WR2 he doesn't cut it for some owners. Smith is 34 years old this year and entered the league back in 2001, he's ancient at this point.

A lack of a WR2, a run heavy team with a running QB who can make plays with his legs, all this makes for some limit with Smith. Brandon LaFell is no threat that's for sure.

No reason he should not be able to post 70 receptions, 1,000 yds, and 5 TDs again. I'll uptick the yards a bit and here is what I would post as a reasonable projection.

72/1,100/5 TD

Smith has racked up 1,100+ yards 6 times in his career, here's hoping he has a lucky number 7 up his sleeve.

I'm usually the first to jump off an aging bandwagon - but this is one that will at least produce at a comfortable level this year, higher than last year at least. To be clear, this is a bet on Cam as well. Catches and TDs go up, YPC down.

85 catches / 1250 yards / 7 TD ; 5 rush / 25 rush yards = 255 PPR / 15.9 PPR PPG

Will he justify his redraft ADP? Probably. But I would rather grab another position at his overall ADP, and grab another WR near 230-250 several rounds later.

I found this article in the Charlotte Observer that was written before the 2013 draft. It basically says that the team knows it needs to replace Smith someday but that it's not time yet.

“That’s one of the things that (general manager) Dave (Gettleman) and I have talked about,” Panthers coach Ron Rivera said last week at the NFL owners meetings in Phoenix. “But as of right now, Steve Smith is still an integral part of what we do and he’ll continue to be that big part for us.”

You can chalk this up to coach speak. But Carolina didn't take advantage of this class' many, many WR prospects. This either means they're wrong in their assessment or that Smith is indeed "still going strong."

I'm going to go with an average of the last two years with the 5.5 avg TD total rounded up to an even six:

76/1284/6

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/03/23/3935271/panthers-steve-smith-going-strong.html#storylink=cpy

I'm going with 65/1050 and 6. Someone else on that team has to step up.

Steve Smith is one of my favorite WR since he entered the league. On May 12th he turned 34 years old. This is a point where most WR, even the the best of the best usually see a pretty steep decline. There are always exceptions of course, and I do not see who else could possibly produce at the WR position for the Pathers if it is not Smith.

Steve Smith 70.89 career ypg x16 = 1134yds
.389 TD/game 6.2 TD/season

65-82 catches at 14.8ypc 962-1214yds 5-7TD 2-10 rushes for 6.8ypc 14-68yds 0-1TD age is my main concern but Smith could be a nice value in redrafts because of that. For dynasty I would not be counting on him at all after this season as he will be 35 in 2014.

In dynasty Smith is likely Tony Gonzales. Good for the very end.

In redraft, people tend to overpay for recent past performance, so it's rare that I wind up drafting players coming off a couple of good years at a relative discount to their value.

But one class of players that usually fall into that bucket, for whatever reason, are WRs in their early 30s. My teams tend to wind up with the Steve Smiths, Reggie Waynes, and Brandon Lloyds of the league at WR3 prices quite often, as owner after owner passes over surefire WR2 production in favor of guys who "could be my next big WR1". And even "surefire" may be an understatement for Smith: last season, his week-to-week MFL production had the 2nd-lowest standard deviation of any skill-position player in the top 100, behind only LeSean McCoy.

Projecting last year's stats for this year is always a dangerous exercise, but in the case of Smith it makes sense. Cam will be another year older, with another year of comfort in the pocket. The Panthers' run game remains as bizarrely disjointed as ever. And there's nothing remotely resembling WR1 competition on the Panthers' roster. (Though, if you're looking for deep sleepers, I think Domenik Hixon may well wind up second on the team in receptions when all is said and done.)

I'll probably own Steve Smith in at least a couple of leagues yet again in 2013, and yet again I figure he'll wind up producing at mid- to low-end WR2 levels from a mid- to low-end WR3 ADP. Nothing flashy, just the kind of workhorse baseline production that keeps your head above water on weeks when the Victor Cruzes and Torrey Smiths of the world put up their occasional 3-41-0's.

Projection: 73 rec, 1,095 yds (15.0 avg), 6 TD - or right around the WR20 range in both standard and PPR leagues.

Perhaps he and Mendenhall should go fishing together.

NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports the Panthers are "attempting to trade" Steve Smith.
In other words, Smith will likely be cut if a trade partner can't be found. Considering that Smith turns 35 in May and is due $7 million in 2014, the Panthers aren't going to find a taker. In theory, it's surprising that it would come to this with one of the greatest players in Panthers history, but Smith appeared to have lost multiple steps last season. Excusing his rookie year and injury-ruined 2004, Smith's 745 yards were the second fewest of his career. With or without Smith, the Panthers have a desperate need at wideout.

Projections for 2014? It sounds like Baltimore wants him to play out of the slot

Many say he has lost a step or two and he probably has but he now has another bona fide WR in Torrey Smith. Add in Pitta and I think he'll get some decent yards this season, porbably not to many TD'S. Im thinking anywhere between 800-1000 yards and 3-5 TDS, I'd guess the low side than higher.