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Player Spotlight: Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Chris Ivory Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I really think he's going to beast it up. They'll run the ball a lot and barring injury, the opportunity is there for him.

 
Guy has never been able to stay healthy in a very part time role. It's the role he's likely best suited for as a power back/short yardage guy.

Who knows what will happen to Goodson. Could be the Bilal and McKnight show.

On a team that's going to be playing from behind a lot & he won't be a big part of their pass game, I think he's mid-low RB2 in non-PPR and likely a RB3 in PPR. Rotoworld seems to think his upside is RB1 because they'll have to 'lean on their run game with QB situation in shambles'. You can't run the ball if you're down 21-0. Not a chance he's a RB1.

PPR: Wouldn't mind grabbing Ivory as my RB3. Likely to end up on someone else's roster. Goodson status will affect my projection for his # of carries, so will provide at later time.

 
Craig_MiamiFL said:
Guy has never been able to stay healthy in a very part time role. It's the role he's likely best suited for as a power back/short yardage guy. Who knows what will happen to Goodson. Could be the Bilal and McKnight show. On a team that's going to be playing from behind a lot & he won't be a big part of their pass game, I think he's mid-low RB2 in non-PPR and likely a RB3 in PPR. Rotoworld seems to think his upside is RB1 because they'll have to 'lean on their run game with QB situation in shambles'. You can't run the ball if you're down 21-0. Not a chance he's a RB1. PPR: Wouldn't mind grabbing Ivory as my RB3. Likely to end up on someone else's roster. Goodson status will affect my projection for his # of carries, so will provide at later time.
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good stuff right here. Ivory hype is out of control
 
Deadman31 said:
not only is the hype out of control so is the anti-hype.
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The potential for an epic Jets implosion just seems too much to ignore. You factor in Ivory's complete invisibility in the passing game (which may be as much to do with Sproles/Thomas as Ivory) and it's easy to project a scenario where Ivory gets 750 yards total at best. If the Jets stick with Goodson, he probably takes the third down role, Powell is still there to vulture carries and right now there is no threat in the passing game to keep defenses honest. The early reports from camp have Smith and Sanchez fighting to see who can make the fans clamor for Tebow the quickest. Ivory had injury concerns (though I tend to discount them) and the Jets offensive line has gone from a standout unit to mediocre at best. If the Jets can match their offensive output from 2012 which ranked them 28th in the league, they'd have to consider that a success.

200 carries, 820 yards, 5 TDs

10 receptions, 80 yards, 0 TDs

 
Deadman31 said:
not only is the hype out of control so is the anti-hype.
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Is it possible for there to be anti-hype for a young RB who never has had more than 137 rushing attempts and a few receptions?

Hard to project because of injuries and being on a weak offense:

Maybe 800 yards rushing with 5 TDs, along with maybe 10 receptions for 150 yards with 1 TD

That may be optimistic, hoping Ivory can stay healthy.

 
2 and 3 years ago when the Jets were supposed to be very good and able to run the ball and dictate the game, they couldn't get their RBs in the fantasy realms of what people are forecasting for Ivory now so I am skeptical they do it with a bad team and with a RB whose proven more that he can't stay healthy than he is a workhorse back.

 
238 carries 1047 yards 6 TDs

25 catches 180 yards 1 TD

I don't like predicting injuries but given Ivory has a history of them and a lack of experience as a featured back I gave him 14 games played with 17 carries per. 4.4 yards per carry with less than 2 catches per game at a 7.2 ypc.

 
Someone pointed out in another thread that he's had less than 400 carries since high school.

Sure, the guy has had a few Marshawn Lynch-esque runs, but he can't stay healthy, he doesn't catch passes, and his new team will be playing from behind quite a bit and spending a scarce amount of time in the red zone.

So it is easy to see why people are polarized on him. Those who just look at the surface see a talented guy who is getting his shot to start. Those who look a little deeper see a team whose offense is totally lost, whose defense is getting worse every year, and who has just signed two guys to very similar contracts. One guy has legal issues, one guy can't stay healthy.

4/27/2013: Signed a three-year, $6 million contract. The deal included a $2.25 million signing bonus. 2013: $750,000, 2014: $1 million, 2015: $2 million, 2016: Free Agent (Another $4 million available through rushing-yard escalators.)
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3/15/2013: Signed a three-year, $6.9 million contract. The deal included a $1.925 million signing bonus. 2013: $1 million, 2014: $1.65 million, 2015: $2.35 million, 2016: Free Agent
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This is not Michael Turner v2.0

 
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.

 
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Craig_MiamiFL said:
Guy has never been able to stay healthy in a very part time role. It's the role he's likely best suited for as a power back/short yardage guy.

Who knows what will happen to Goodson. Could be the Bilal and McKnight show.

On a team that's going to be playing from behind a lot & he won't be a big part of their pass game, I think he's mid-low RB2 in non-PPR and likely a RB3 in PPR. Rotoworld seems to think his upside is RB1 because they'll have to 'lean on their run game with QB situation in shambles'. You can't run the ball if you're down 21-0. Not a chance he's a RB1.

PPR: Wouldn't mind grabbing Ivory as my RB3. Likely to end up on someone else's roster. Goodson status will affect my projection for his # of carries, so will provide at later time.
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The Jets had a respectable defense last season - poor against the run, but no. 2 against the pass (without Revis) - and have added some new pieces this season.

How many times did they fall behind 21-0 last season? How many times do you think it will happen this year?

 
Deadman31 said:
not only is the hype out of control so is the anti-hype.
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Couldn't say it better myself. Never seen people so down on a guy with such high upside.

240/1200/8 and 30/190/2

People will regret passing on him as RB2 at the price you can get him in redraft.

 
The Jets had 427 RB carries last year, and they were pretty awful then, too. I don't think workload is something to worry about with Ivory unless you think Goodson or Powell are just going to beat him out.

 
NYJ said:
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.
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Ivory is a better runner then Shonn Greene. If you have eyes and watch game film its so obvious. And Greene finished as the RB17 in my league. (I'm in a 24 team Dyn League). So Greene was a low end RB1 in my league on a horrible Jets team. I think they are slightly better this year. Not much, but slightly. Ivory as an RB2 in most formats is totally reasonable unless you are blind I guess. I mean let's not get carried away he has had some injury concerns. Which is why MOST reasonable fantasy owners should see him (Ivory) as a RB2 with upside.

I think he gets (assuming healthy for 15 to 16 games). 1100 Yards and 10 TD's.But who knows really.

 
NYJ said:
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.
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The offensive line is the one aspect that makes me want to take a gamble on Goodson here. But you guys don't just lack a red zone threat, you lack any passing/receiving threat. You don't need to worry about who gets carries in the red zone because you won't be spending much time there. In the last 3 years the Jets are averaging less than 10 rushing TDs as a team, yet people here are projecting 10+ TDs for Ivory. Madness.

Add that to the fact that your defense has been getting worse each year, so you'll probably be forced to pass more which means more 3 and outs and more running plays for the other teams. This leads to less offensive plays for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets RBs rushed the ball 397 times and in 2012 they rushed it 427 times. They averaged 3.9 ypc. With the defense getting worse and the passing attack staying the same, I think they're down to 380 RB rushes. How those are split up really depends on how many games Ivory plays. What is the over/under on games played this season? I'm guessing he plays in 10 games.

 
I’ve been trying to think about a situation that rivals Ivory’s with the Jets in 2013 and the closest I can come up with is Michael Turner in 2008 with the Falcons. A young veteran, big burly type RB with little to no pass catching ability who was roadblocked on his previous team yet had shown flashes of brilliance when he did get a chance to carry the ball now getting a chance to be the primary ball carrier on a team most perceive(d) to be bottom feeding. The difference as far as I can remember is that Ivory has been banged up a bit during his career while Turner had largely avoided any type of nagging injury.

When I’ve seen Ivory run, I’ve been impressed. He runs with a ferocity and is tough to bring down. Working in Ivory’s favor is an O-line that sports 2 blue chip talents in Ferguson and Mangold. Working against him would be the chance that he won’t get supportive QB play near anything Turner got in 2008 when Matt Ryan was up to the task right off the bat. I remember how folks were not too high on Turner in 2008. According to FFC, he was the 20th RB off the board that year (Ivory is R23 currently). Despite the Jets season spiraling downward in 2012, they still ran the ball close to 500 times and I like Ivory a lot better than I liked Shonn Greene provided he can stay healthy. But Turner reached the heights he did because the Falcons committed to getting him the ball 25 times/game. So whatever upside Ivory has will have to depend on usage because like Turner, Ivory doesn’t appear to offer much in the passing game. Could Ivory be a guy the Jets found a way to get 350 carries? I think that’s a tad much, but 325 touches altogether sounds reasonable since they gave Shonn Greene 295 last year.

While Ivory’s career YPC is 5.1, he also had Drew Brees as his QB and I suspect Ivory will receive a lot more attention from defenses what with the Jets QB situation. But I could see Ivory still coming in at a 4.3-4.4 YPC range and if Ryan is willing to ride ivory like a plow horse and find a way to get an undermanned defense to play above their heads (in fact, if there is one HC who I think could do this, Ryan is that guy and I’m not exactly a fan) then a 6-7 win season may actually be possible. That may not sound like much but in a year where I think most people are suspecting 3 wins as a good year for this bunch, it would be a minor victory of sorts.

I worry about Ivory’s durability though. He’s battled foot, knee and hamstring injuries already in his career and so I think expecting 300 touches from him is optimistic.

Prediction: 286 Rushes, 1264 Rushing Yards, 6 TD’s. 4 Receptions 21 Receiving Yards.

 
FWIW, while Ivory has more talent from a rushing standpoint, Greene has two important things in his favor: he's proven to be durable; and he's half-decent at catching the ball out of the backfield. These issues, particularly the durability, aren't merely a concern that he might get hurt -- it will also dictate how the coaching staff will use him. Because of his past injury history and limitations in the pass-catching aspects, he will likely be in a committee of some sort, particularly if Goodson manages to survive.

If healthy:

215 carries

967 yards

4.5 ypc

7 tds

9 catches

63 yards

 
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The points about the Jets' inability to score on the ground since Thomas Jones left are valid. I don't see many receptions for Ivory, either, but a Benson-to-the-Bengals type year? Absolutely within reach.

Also, while the vet additions to the line are a plus, don't sleep on the new depth, either. 5th rounder Oday Aboushi probably won't see much action this year, but he gives them excellent injury insurance or another option if anyone gets hurt. Very good player.

 
Talent is not the question here. If anyone posting here is not drafting Ivory because they don't think he is talented has never seen the guy play. He flies and if he's healthy, he's going to make some big plays.

 
The anti hype is surprising to me. I think he's being drafted about where he should be. Low end RB2. Some of the other guys around him are Jonathan Stewart, Andre Brown, Mendenhall, BJGE, Ballard and Lacy. You can nit pick their chances this year too. Fact is RBs that project to get the majority of carries and goal line have value. Even if they play for the Jets or Cardinals.

 
FF Ninja said:
NYJ said:
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.
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The offensive line is the one aspect that makes me want to take a gamble on Goodson here. But you guys don't just lack a red zone threat, you lack any passing/receiving threat. You don't need to worry about who gets carries in the red zone because you won't be spending much time there. In the last 3 years the Jets are averaging less than 10 rushing TDs as a team, yet people here are projecting 10+ TDs for Ivory. Madness. Add that to the fact that your defense has been getting worse each year, so you'll probably be forced to pass more which means more 3 and outs and more running plays for the other teams. This leads to less offensive plays for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets RBs rushed the ball 397 times and in 2012 they rushed it 427 times. They averaged 3.9 ypc. With the defense getting worse and the passing attack staying the same, I think they're down to 380 RB rushes. How those are split up really depends on how many games Ivory plays. What is the over/under on games played this season? I'm guessing he plays in 10 games.
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The new WCO, improved running game and better OL will make this offense better. We had 2.9 Red Zone attempts per game last season which was 20th in the league. Tampa Bay (2.8) and Cleveland (2.4) both had less, but Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both had 11 rushing TD's. 10 TD's is not implausible for Ivory. I also don't think our defense is getting worse. It will be top 10 yet again this year, but that's a different issue.
 
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I am by no means a Greene supporter but everyone is assuming that Ivory's floor is at least what Greene did. Greene ran with some decent power and had a couple of solid years as a RB in a situation that was not ideal.

People want to discredit Greene (including myself a touch) for putting up 1200 yards and 8 tds last year. Greene has had some highlight runs along the way and he just got a 3 year 10 million dollar contract himself one which matches Ivory's contract with the Jets.

I think people will be happy at seasons end if Ivory ends up producing Greene like numbers. However, just like Greene, Ivory will barely be startable as his ppg will be low and his consistency will not be good either.

 
Eminence said:
Talent is not the question here. If anyone posting here is not drafting Ivory because they don't think he is talented has never seen the guy play. He flies and if he's healthy, he's going to make some big plays.
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Absolute beast if he can stay healthy but man, the Jets are gonna suck.

 
Kitrick Taylor said:
The anti hype is surprising to me. I think he's being drafted about where he should be. Low end RB2. Some of the other guys around him are Jonathan Stewart, Andre Brown, Mendenhall, BJGE, Ballard and Lacy. You can nit pick their chances this year too. Fact is RBs that project to get the majority of carries and goal line have value. Even if they play for the Jets or Cardinals.
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A follow-on point to make here: Since most leagues (including all of mine) still cling to the mindset of a 2-starting-RB minimum, the bar for what should be considered "starting-quality RB" is awfully low. Effectively, to be a near-lock to finish in the top 24, any given back needs to just (a) stay healthy, (b) have a bare minimum of talent, and © not be a complete afterthought at the goal line. Being a bellcow back isn't as important as you'd think (the guys who finished in the RB13-24 slots averaged just 239 touches last year, and 245 in '11).

Last year, Greene and Turner finished solidly in the top 20 despite overall performances that were subpar in general, and downright awful often. Mendenhall's and Benson's emphatically mediocre 2011 made the cut as well. And so on down the line.

Ivory clearly has more than a Greene / Benson level of talent, and with Goodson's status so uncertain I'm confident Ivory gets his share of touches inside the 5. That leaves health, and it's an obvious yellow flag. But in my mind, one of two things is likely to happen: either Ivory will get the 25+ touches a game some are expecting, in which case I have significant doubt he gets through a full season; or he functions more as the head of a psuedo-RBBC and gets more like 15-18 touches a game, which would actually play better to his strengths and cause me to be more optimistic about his full-year totals.

Short of catastrophic injury, I have a hard time believing Ivory won't find a way to get 240 touches. If he runs with even average effectiveness - and he's behind an O-line that should allow quite a bit better than that - he doesn't have a whole lot of downside risk at the RB25-27 ADP he's at now. If he can sustain the Ivory that showed up in flashes in New Orleans, and stay relatively healthy, he could easily put up a borderline RB1 season. I'm targeting him everywhere I can get him as my RB3, but would want to see a little something extra out of him in camp before I'd be willing to pay mid-tier RB2 prices.

Projection: 13 GP, 232 rush, 1048 yds (4.5 avg), 6 TD; 18 rec, 122 yds (6.8 avg), 0 TD

 
I’m not saying Ivory won’t succeed in NYJ, but I think his production, per touch, in NO is not great to use as much of a barometer for his upcoming season in 2013. 1) His touches per season have been pretty limited due to health and RBBC. Sample size isn’t there to prove he can be a lead back for a full season. 2) The NO aerial attach opens up things for runners to do some damage, when they actually get the ball. NYJ won’t provide Ivory the same luxury.

Throw Ivory’s NO numbers out the window when considering his 2013 production. In my view, his past means very little given my previous points (he’ll be used differently, most likely, and in a VERY different system). And no, I don’t think Ivory is markedly better than Shonn Greene, I think his yards per attempt benefited from the system and QB he had.

Is the upside there for Ivory? I thought so, but I think his upside (if everything breaks right this year) is what several folks are projecting in this thread. Talented enough player, and should get a real chance though… I like that about him in 2013. However, I really don’t see him averaging 4.5+ yards per carry in NYJ.

 
going to be overvalued, already is in some drafts I've seen. I don't even expect 700 total to be honest.

175 carries / 625 Ru / 4 TDs

 
I like Ivory better than most of the backs going around that ADP of RB25. However, that fact really just convinces me that this is not the year to wait on RB. Seems like if you don't do what it takes to get 2 of the top 20 RBs, you put yourself at a real disadvantage.

If you can grab Ivory as your #3 RB, I think you are doing pretty well. He is a relatively safe bet for 900+ yards and 6+ TDs.

I also think that every year people mistakenly assume that RBs can't produce in poor offenses. People were saying the same thing this time last year about Trent Richardson and claiming there was no way he could score 10 TDs.

 
I love Ivory. I want him. However, I want him as my RB3 just in case he flops, it's a risk as an RB2. But, that'll all depend on what else I have on my team at that point.

 
NYJ said:
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.
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The 14th best fantasy RB is not good. 1000 rushing yards for a player that starts all 16 games is not good. Any RB that starts all 16 games is going to accumulate stats. Look at Greene's average points per game. I bet your sweet tuckus that he is far lower than the 14th best fantasy RB using that metric.

I like Ivory's game, but he's an unproven commodity on a bad offense. Draft accordingly.

 
250 attempts / 1120 yards / 7 TD ; 20 catches / 110 yards / 0 TD = 185 PPR / 11.6 PPR PPG

Eclipsing 1,000 is all well and good, but in PPR I won't be drafting Ivory where I'd have to do so.

 
NYJ said:
FF Ninja said:
NYJ said:
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.
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The offensive line is the one aspect that makes me want to take a gamble on Goodson here. But you guys don't just lack a red zone threat, you lack any passing/receiving threat. You don't need to worry about who gets carries in the red zone because you won't be spending much time there. In the last 3 years the Jets are averaging less than 10 rushing TDs as a team, yet people here are projecting 10+ TDs for Ivory. Madness. Add that to the fact that your defense has been getting worse each year, so you'll probably be forced to pass more which means more 3 and outs and more running plays for the other teams. This leads to less offensive plays for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets RBs rushed the ball 397 times and in 2012 they rushed it 427 times. They averaged 3.9 ypc. With the defense getting worse and the passing attack staying the same, I think they're down to 380 RB rushes. How those are split up really depends on how many games Ivory plays. What is the over/under on games played this season? I'm guessing he plays in 10 games.
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The new WCO, improved running game and better OL will make this offense better. We had 2.9 Red Zone attempts per game last season which was 20th in the league. Tampa Bay (2.8) and Cleveland (2.4) both had less, but Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both had 11 rushing TD's. 10 TD's is not implausible for Ivory. I also don't think our defense is getting worse. It will be top 10 yet again this year, but that's a different issue.
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Where did you find that red zone stat?

Tampa had some semblance of a passing threat to help out Martin and I'm sorry, but Ivory <> Richardson. I don't think 10 TD's is impossible for Ivory, just extremely unlikely even if he plays 16 games, which is also extremely unlikely.

As for you statement that the Jets defense is not getting worse and finishing top 10 again... I'll just leave this here:

Code: 
Year  PPG Rank2012 23.4 20th2011 22.7 20th2010 19.0  6th2009 14.8  1st
 
For those saying to grab him as your RB3, the FBG ADP is a little wonky due to MFL having him at 119. Calc - 39, RTS - 60, CBS - 53, ESPN - 52

So it looks like he's going to cost a 5th. Maybe a 4th if the hype keeps up.

 
FF Ninja said:
For those saying to grab him as your RB3, the FBG ADP is a little wonky due to MFL having him at 119. Calc - 39, RTS - 60, CBS - 53, ESPN - 52

So it looks like he's going to cost a 5th. Maybe a 4th if the hype keeps up.
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Where is this "hype" I keep hearing about? A quick look at this thread speaks otherwise to me.

Personally I think the injury risk concern is blown out of proportion - but I generally think that about all players since I don't really care for the "injury prone" label. I do agree that Ivory's aggressive running style does open up the possibility of injury more than say the running style of a Chris Johnson would, but injuries are mostly bad luck and every back gets nicked up to some extent. Will Ivory miss games? It's possible, but I'm not going to predict it.

I think Mike Goodson will be cut as soon as practicable - he's been an emabrassment and if the Jets can do so in a way that allows them to recover their signing bonus, he'll be gone. Although that could open the door to a Bradshaw signing with Goodson's money.

The Jets o-line should be improved and the passing game would be hard pressed to be worse than last season. Morningwheig is ceratinly a more creative play caller than Tony Sporano was, and with Santonio Holmes back this season - he and Kerley are decent fits in a WCO offense as both are quick and good with the ball in their hands. Sanchez will either improve or be replaced with Smith (who if is anything is an extremely accurate QB that could thrive in a short passing WCO scheme).

The defense jettisoned some age and added some intriguing rookies. The Jets D line is young athletic and should be a strong point. Cromarties played amzingly well last season and if the Alabam rookie is what he's cracked up to be, the team will have a CB duo on par with the best in the league. I think the defense will be aqequate at worst. I don't think getting blown out each week will be an issue. Rex Ryan and the talent they have at key positions won't allo it, unless Sanchez continues to be a turnover machine (and I can't say of course that it's impossible that he won't continue to be).

Ivory is no worse of a pass catcher than Shonn Greene (Greene was quite terrible at it) and Greene managed to catch enough balls in the offense and in a WC scheme the opportunities should increase. Ivory also has something Greene never had, big play capability. He doesn't need to score exclusively from the goal-line, he can break some big runs.

1,025 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs - 22 catches 165 yards.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
FF Ninja said:
For those saying to grab him as your RB3, the FBG ADP is a little wonky due to MFL having him at 119. Calc - 39, RTS - 60, CBS - 53, ESPN - 52

So it looks like he's going to cost a 5th. Maybe a 4th if the hype keeps up.
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Where is this "hype" I keep hearing about? A quick look at this thread speaks otherwise to me.

Personally I think the injury risk concern is blown out of proportion - but I generally think that about all players since I don't really care for the "injury prone" label. I do agree that Ivory's aggressive running style does open up the possibility of injury more than say the running style of a Chris Johnson would, but injuries are mostly bad luck and every back gets nicked up to some extent. Will Ivory miss games? It's possible, but I'm not going to predict it.

I think Mike Goodson will be cut as soon as practicable - he's been an emabrassment and if the Jets can do so in a way that allows them to recover their signing bonus, he'll be gone. Although that could open the door to a Bradshaw signing with Goodson's money.

The Jets o-line should be improved and the passing game would be hard pressed to be worse than last season. Morningwheig is ceratinly a more creative play caller than Tony Sporano was, and with Santonio Holmes back this season - he and Kerley are decent fits in a WCO offense as both are quick and good with the ball in their hands. Sanchez will either improve or be replaced with Smith (who if is anything is an extremely accurate QB that could thrive in a short passing WCO scheme).

The defense jettisoned some age and added some intriguing rookies. The Jets D line is young athletic and should be a strong point. Cromarties played amzingly well last season and if the Alabam rookie is what he's cracked up to be, the team will have a CB duo on par with the best in the league. I think the defense will be aqequate at worst. I don't think getting blown out each week will be an issue. Rex Ryan and the talent they have at key positions won't allo it, unless Sanchez continues to be a turnover machine (and I can't say of course that it's impossible that he won't continue to be).

Ivory is no worse of a pass catcher than Shonn Greene (Greene was quite terrible at it) and Greene managed to catch enough balls in the offense and in a WC scheme the opportunities should increase. Ivory also has something Greene never had, big play capability. He doesn't need to score exclusively from the goal-line, he can break some big runs.

1,025 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs - 22 catches 165 yards.
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Spotlight threads are not a good representation of the population. They typically bring out the people who are opinionated on the player (on both ends of the spectrum). A quick look at this thread has people projecting over 200 carries, over 1000 yards, and double digit touchdowns. So I'm not sure how you are missing the hype here. Maybe the nay-sayers are blinding you from the crazies, but they are out here en masse. Phenix was leading the charge with a lot of blather in another thread. He's right up there with lhucks in my opinion. But moving on...

I'm not a big fan of the injury prone label, but as I mentioned earlier, the guy has less than 400 carries since high school. How do people think he's going to not only play 16 games, but handle over 200 carries? That's just insane to me.

I am a fan of both Ivory and Goodson's game. I'm not as certain as you are that Goodson is gone. I think both will have value when healthy this year, but I am near certain that they won't both play 16 games. Goodson was much cheaper before the incident(s) despite a nearly identical contract. The Jets realize how brittle Ivory is so they aren't going into this season without some depth, so even if Goodson is cut then you are right that they may pursue someone like Bradshaw. Either way, this will be a RBBC of sorts.

And to say that Ivory is no worse a pass catcher than Greene is totally baseless conjecture. Green obviously started out very poorly in that category but clearly worked to improve. I recall a quote from Rex Ryan saying that defenders bounce right off of Greene, but so do passes. In the last two seasons he's caught 70% of passes directed to him (almost 70 targets. Not stellar, but not scrub-like, either. Ivory has 5 career targets. If we set up a jugs machine to have a catch off, would you bet me $10,000 on Ivory to beat Greene? I didn't think so. At this point it is safe to assume that Ivory is indeed a worse pass catcher than Greene and that Ivory will catch less than 10 balls this coming season. Even when he had 137 rushes on the Saints, he only had 1 target. That didn't happen by accident.

 
FF Ninja said:
Dr. Octopus said:
FF Ninja said:
For those saying to grab him as your RB3, the FBG ADP is a little wonky due to MFL having him at 119. Calc - 39, RTS - 60, CBS - 53, ESPN - 52

So it looks like he's going to cost a 5th. Maybe a 4th if the hype keeps up.
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Where is this "hype" I keep hearing about? A quick look at this thread speaks otherwise to me.

Personally I think the injury risk concern is blown out of proportion - but I generally think that about all players since I don't really care for the "injury prone" label. I do agree that Ivory's aggressive running style does open up the possibility of injury more than say the running style of a Chris Johnson would, but injuries are mostly bad luck and every back gets nicked up to some extent. Will Ivory miss games? It's possible, but I'm not going to predict it.

I think Mike Goodson will be cut as soon as practicable - he's been an emabrassment and if the Jets can do so in a way that allows them to recover their signing bonus, he'll be gone. Although that could open the door to a Bradshaw signing with Goodson's money.

The Jets o-line should be improved and the passing game would be hard pressed to be worse than last season. Morningwheig is ceratinly a more creative play caller than Tony Sporano was, and with Santonio Holmes back this season - he and Kerley are decent fits in a WCO offense as both are quick and good with the ball in their hands. Sanchez will either improve or be replaced with Smith (who if is anything is an extremely accurate QB that could thrive in a short passing WCO scheme).

The defense jettisoned some age and added some intriguing rookies. The Jets D line is young athletic and should be a strong point. Cromarties played amzingly well last season and if the Alabam rookie is what he's cracked up to be, the team will have a CB duo on par with the best in the league. I think the defense will be aqequate at worst. I don't think getting blown out each week will be an issue. Rex Ryan and the talent they have at key positions won't allo it, unless Sanchez continues to be a turnover machine (and I can't say of course that it's impossible that he won't continue to be).

Ivory is no worse of a pass catcher than Shonn Greene (Greene was quite terrible at it) and Greene managed to catch enough balls in the offense and in a WC scheme the opportunities should increase. Ivory also has something Greene never had, big play capability. He doesn't need to score exclusively from the goal-line, he can break some big runs.

1,025 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs - 22 catches 165 yards.
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Spotlight threads are not a good representation of the population. They typically bring out the people who are opinionated on the player (on both ends of the spectrum). A quick look at this thread has people projecting over 200 carries, over 1000 yards, and double digit touchdowns. So I'm not sure how you are missing the hype here. Maybe the nay-sayers are blinding you from the crazies, but they are out here en masse. Phenix was leading the charge with a lot of blather in another thread. He's right up there with lhucks in my opinion. But moving on...

I'm not a big fan of the injury prone label, but as I mentioned earlier, the guy has less than 400 carries since high school. How do people think he's going to not only play 16 games, but handle over 200 carries? That's just insane to me.

I am a fan of both Ivory and Goodson's game. I'm not as certain as you are that Goodson is gone. I think both will have value when healthy this year, but I am near certain that they won't both play 16 games. Goodson was much cheaper before the incident(s) despite a nearly identical contract. The Jets realize how brittle Ivory is so they aren't going into this season without some depth, so even if Goodson is cut then you are right that they may pursue someone like Bradshaw. Either way, this will be a RBBC of sorts.

And to say that Ivory is no worse a pass catcher than Greene is totally baseless conjecture. Green obviously started out very poorly in that category but clearly worked to improve. I recall a quote from Rex Ryan saying that defenders bounce right off of Greene, but so do passes. In the last two seasons he's caught 70% of passes directed to him (almost 70 targets. Not stellar, but not scrub-like, either. Ivory has 5 career targets. If we set up a jugs machine to have a catch off, would you bet me $10,000 on Ivory to beat Greene? I didn't think so. At this point it is safe to assume that Ivory is indeed a worse pass catcher than Greene and that Ivory will catch less than 10 balls this coming season. Even when he had 137 rushes on the Saints, he only had 1 target. That didn't happen by accident.
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It didn't happen by accident because, the Saints are very structured as to the roles that their running backs undertake. When Ivory or Ingram went onto the field, you were likely to see the team run the ball.

If you can arrange the jugs machine catch off, let me know and I'll consider your wager. The point being however is that Greene was able to be part of the passing game with the Jets despite not being a very good pass catcher or route runner and not having been utilized as one at Iowa - I don't think we can just assume that Ivory won't catch 20 balls with the Jets. In fact I'm guessing that that is his floor if he does indeed play 16 games.

 
So Ivory's floor this year receiving is roughly 700% of his three year career total in the most pass happy system in the NFL?

Yeah, that's the hype that people are talking about. It only takes one Kool Aid drinker in each draft to take this guy off the board waaaay higher than he should be going. Chances are I won't be owning him anywhere this year.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
So Ivory's floor this year receiving is roughly 700% of his three year career total in the most pass happy system in the NFL?Yeah, that's the hype that people are talking about. It only takes one Kool Aid drinker in each draft to take this guy off the board waaaay higher than he should be going. Chances are I won't be owning him anywhere this year.
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Basically 1 catch per game from a starting RB qualifies as hype now?

You do realize that Ivory was a part time player (who was inactive most weeks) and not used in a pass catching role in New Orleans, correct? How are his career stats to date relevant?

if you scroll up you'll see I projected 22 catches for him - which is around what Shonn Greene averaged during his time in the same role that Ivory will fill. Perhaps "floor" was the proper way to phrase it - should have said his baseline in the Jets offense.

 
I think people are overthinking things. You can't predict injury based on a players past, unless it's an injury which will stay with them and affect their long term health.

You've got a young talented back, that now has the opportunity to showcase that talent with an above average run blocking offensive line in front of him.

People say he doesn't have a ton of carries, and that's true.. but I liken it to the Michael Turner situation years ago prior to the Atlanta Falcon years.

Turner never had any more than 80 carries on the year, had a few lingering hammys along the way, but passed the eye ball test.

To me, Ivory looked good running the ball. He runs hard, he has enough speed to break the big ones and he's big enough to capitalize on goal line carries.

Barring injury which keeps him out more than a few games, and being stingy with the predictions; he's more than likely good for

215 - 225 carries at roughly 4.4 yards per carry. (946 - 990 yards rushing)

16 - 20 receptions at 7.0 yards per rec (112 - 140 yards receiving)

1058 - 1130 Total YFS

8 touchdowns

I could see him getting more than that, especially if the team thinks he can handle a bigger workload and his body agrees. If he's injured for a significant amount of time, I could see less than that.

You can't deny that he doesn't have talent though, and now he's got the opportunity of a lead back job.

 
His career stats are highly relevant to those of us who think he's very likely to continue to be a part time / RBBC player on the Jets. Personally I think projecting anything other than a multiway RBBC is making a pretty big leap. The team itself likely had Mike Goodson higher on their priority list -- not only did they acquire him 1st (I know, RFA / UFA so not a huge deal) but they also gave Goodson 15% more money. Even if Ivory holds up for the first time in his college OR pro career I don't see him getting anywhere near a feature level workload.

 
Chris Ivory received a contract of 3 years, 10 million dollars

Mike Goodson received a contract of 3 years, 6.9 million dollars

The Jets also gave up a 4th round pick for Chris Ivory.

Explain please.

His career stats are highly relevant to those of us who think he's very likely to continue to be a part time / RBBC player on the Jets. Personally I think projecting anything other than a multiway RBBC is making a pretty big leap. The team itself likely had Mike Goodson higher on their priority list -- not only did they acquire him 1st (I know, RFA / UFA so not a huge deal) but they also gave Goodson 15% more money. Even if Ivory holds up for the first time in his college OR pro career I don't see him getting anywhere near a feature level workload.
Click to expand...
 
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Google it. The contract was originally reported as 3 / $10 million later corrected to 3 / $6 million. I'm on my phone so it's hard to link.

ETA: All evidence points to the NFL seeing him as a RBBC type guy, not a featured type guy -- the $, the trade cost, his usage history, the Saints not wanting him, no one else signing him to a tender.

 
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Coeur de Lion said:
Google it. The contract was originally reported as 3 / $10 million later corrected to 3 / $6 million. I'm on my phone so it's hard to link.
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Yep.

4/27/2013: Signed a three-year, $6 million contract.

The deal included a $2.25 million signing bonus.

Another $4 million available through rushing-yard escalators. 2013: $750,000, 2014: $1 million, 2015: $2 million, 2016: Free Agent
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http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6168/chris-ivory

..and..

Updating a previous reported item, Rich Cimini got to the bottom of the numbers on the Chris Ivory contract and it’s total value.

Turns out that RB Chris Ivory signed a three-year, $6 million contract, including a $2.25 million signing bonus. His cap number this year will be $1.5 million. RG Stephen Peterman signed a one-year, $905,000 contract, including a $65,000 signing bonus.
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http://thejetsblog.com/nyjets/corrections-on-the-chris-ivory-contract/

 
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It's possible that he can be part of a RBBC but do you think he'll be inactive most weeks like he was in New Orleans?

Personally I think Goodson is going to be released as soon as practicable - but like I also said that could open the door to a Bradshaw or other veteran signing.

Coeur de Lion said:
His career stats are highly relevant to those of us who think he's very likely to continue to be a part time / RBBC player on the Jets.
Click to expand...
 
Dr. Octopus said:
It's possible that he can be part of a RBBC but do you think he'll be inactive most weeks like he was in New Orleans? Personally I think Goodson is going to be released as soon as practicable - but like I also said that could open the door to a Bradshaw or other veteran signing.

Coeur de Lion said:
His career stats are highly relevant to those of us who think he's very likely to continue to be a part time / RBBC player on the Jets.
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No, I don't think he'll be a heathy scratch, but less production (relative to NO) split 3 ways is still pretty crappy. And not sure why they'd cut Goodson -- plenty of players get drunk / smoke weed / have child support issues / the guy in the car with him will prolly take the hit on the gun for a couple hundred K. I'm guessing the team interviewed / did background checks on Goodson prior to signing him and knew he wasn't exactly a choirboy.IMO signing Bradshaw (if he's healthy) would destroy ANY value for Ivory, Powell, Goodson, or anyone else in the Jets' backfield. The guys currently there are roughly equivalent overall (step above fodder, but well below featured RB ability) -- healthy Bradshaw unquestionably is a good NFL starter level player.
 
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I think it is telling that the Jets traded a 4th round pick for Ivory. This is a team with many holes/issues and they went out and got rid of a mid-round pick for a luxury position when they could have just signed someone. The question is whether he stays healthy which we can only use history as an indicator.

 
ty247 said:
Chris Ivory received a contract of 3 years, 10 million dollars

Mike Goodson received a contract of 3 years, 6.9 million dollars

The Jets also gave up a 4th round pick for Chris Ivory.

Explain please.

His career stats are highly relevant to those of us who think he's very likely to continue to be a part time / RBBC player on the Jets. Personally I think projecting anything other than a multiway RBBC is making a pretty big leap. The team itself likely had Mike Goodson higher on their priority list -- not only did they acquire him 1st (I know, RFA / UFA so not a huge deal) but they also gave Goodson 15% more money. Even if Ivory holds up for the first time in his college OR pro career I don't see him getting anywhere near a feature level workload.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
You could Google it as he said or, as crazy as this may sound... you could read the thread you are posting in!

Post #10

 
My mistake.

Googled it initially and it came back with the 3yr/10mill

FF Ninja said:
ty247 said:
Chris Ivory received a contract of 3 years, 10 million dollars

Mike Goodson received a contract of 3 years, 6.9 million dollars

The Jets also gave up a 4th round pick for Chris Ivory.

Explain please.

His career stats are highly relevant to those of us who think he's very likely to continue to be a part time / RBBC player on the Jets. Personally I think projecting anything other than a multiway RBBC is making a pretty big leap. The team itself likely had Mike Goodson higher on their priority list -- not only did they acquire him 1st (I know, RFA / UFA so not a huge deal) but they also gave Goodson 15% more money. Even if Ivory holds up for the first time in his college OR pro career I don't see him getting anywhere near a feature level workload.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
You could Google it as he said or, as crazy as this may sound... you could read the thread you are posting in!

Post #10
Click to expand...
 
FF Ninja said:
NYJ said:
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.
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The offensive line is the one aspect that makes me want to take a gamble on Goodson here. But you guys don't just lack a red zone threat, you lack any passing/receiving threat. You don't need to worry about who gets carries in the red zone because you won't be spending much time there. In the last 3 years the Jets are averaging less than 10 rushing TDs as a team, yet people here are projecting 10+ TDs for Ivory. Madness.

Add that to the fact that your defense has been getting worse each year, so you'll probably be forced to pass more which means more 3 and outs and more running plays for the other teams. This leads to less offensive plays for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets RBs rushed the ball 397 times and in 2012 they rushed it 427 times. They averaged 3.9 ypc. With the defense getting worse and the passing attack staying the same, I think they're down to 380 RB rushes. How those are split up really depends on how many games Ivory plays. What is the over/under on games played this season? I'm guessing he plays in 10 games.
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What I think is being lost here is that a good running game can, in and of itself, keep the other team from pulling away. If you can control the clock, you can still put the brakes on an explosive offense by limiting time of possession.

But I still see this as more of a push bet for Ivory in terms of what Greene was able to produce in seasons past. While I like Ivory much better than Greene when he's on the field, the durability concerns are real as is the uncertainty with the offense and QB play. A few third downs not converted here and there and you could really start to eat away at Ivory's touches despite him doing better than Greene in terms of ypc.

While last year may seem like a nightmare scenario in terms of QB play, do you think Sanchez is more worried about the rookie in 2013 than he was Tebow in 2012? I do. So I think he's very vulnerable in terms of nerves and lack of confidence. And I'm not sure Smith has the confidence to withstand a few bad outings in that media market either. So I think it's very possible the overall QB play could be worse in 2013 and result in even fewer touches for Ivory.

So I still tend to value Ivory similar to Greene.

 
FF Ninja said:
NYJ said:
FF Ninja said:
NYJ said:
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.
Click to expand...
The offensive line is the one aspect that makes me want to take a gamble on Goodson here. But you guys don't just lack a red zone threat, you lack any passing/receiving threat. You don't need to worry about who gets carries in the red zone because you won't be spending much time there. In the last 3 years the Jets are averaging less than 10 rushing TDs as a team, yet people here are projecting 10+ TDs for Ivory. Madness. Add that to the fact that your defense has been getting worse each year, so you'll probably be forced to pass more which means more 3 and outs and more running plays for the other teams. This leads to less offensive plays for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets RBs rushed the ball 397 times and in 2012 they rushed it 427 times. They averaged 3.9 ypc. With the defense getting worse and the passing attack staying the same, I think they're down to 380 RB rushes. How those are split up really depends on how many games Ivory plays. What is the over/under on games played this season? I'm guessing he plays in 10 games.
Click to expand...
The new WCO, improved running game and better OL will make this offense better. We had 2.9 Red Zone attempts per game last season which was 20th in the league. Tampa Bay (2.8) and Cleveland (2.4) both had less, but Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both had 11 rushing TD's. 10 TD's is not implausible for Ivory. I also don't think our defense is getting worse. It will be top 10 yet again this year, but that's a different issue.
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Where did you find that red zone stat? Tampa had some semblance of a passing threat to help out Martin and I'm sorry, but Ivory <> Richardson. I don't think 10 TD's is impossible for Ivory, just extremely unlikely even if he plays 16 games, which is also extremely unlikely. As for you statement that the Jets defense is not getting worse and finishing top 10 again... I'll just leave this here:Year PPG Rank2012 23.4 20th2011 22.7 20th2010 19.0 6th2009 14.8 1st
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I just googled Red Zone attempts and there was that stat. It's an irrelevant stat but I was proving that your point was also. Ivory has had 8 career TD's. They were: 1, 1, 3, 6, 22, 35, 55 and 56 yards. Only 50% of his TD's actually came in a goal line situation. You could also look at Yards per Game where we were 8th, 5th, 3rd and 1st. Still going in the wrong direction but we've got rid of dead weight like Bart Scott and are younger and faster on defense this year. Not to mention two first round picks who, if they live up to their billing, will make a sizeable impact. I firmly believe Rex Ryan is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL.
ScottNorwood said:
NYJ said:
Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.
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The 14th best fantasy RB is not good. 1000 rushing yards for a player that starts all 16 games is not good. Any RB that starts all 16 games is going to accumulate stats. Look at Greene's average points per game. I bet your sweet tuckus that he is far lower than the 14th best fantasy RB using that metric. I like Ivory's game, but he's an unproven commodity on a bad offense. Draft accordingly.
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14th best RB would be great value for Ivory at his current ADP (26th after a quick google). Solid RB2, like I said. We're talking about fantasy football. I don't care how my RB scores points, or how well he is performing on the field if he is doing the job in my fantasy team. Ivory is far better than Greene from what we've seen so I was using Greene as a baseline of what a back in this offense can do. I don't think Ivory will get as many carries but that's where his superior talent allows him to produce similar fantasy numbers.
 
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