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Player Spotlight: Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Roddy White Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
White is being overlooked here. At WR10, he has a nice price to get WR1 production. Ryan will be money, and White is going to have single coverage a lot, since Julio is on the other side, and Gonzalez attracting attention as well. May be a little inconsistent, since there will be weeks where Julio has the big game and some weeks White will have the big game.....but WRs not named Calvin Johnson can have a few dud weeks. White at WR10 shows how deep the WR field is. You could be in a spot to get White as your WR2.....and that's scary.

88 rec, 1150 yds, 9 TD

 
Good news on my Julio/Roddy prediction from 2012. I predicted them to combine for a 174/2531/19 line. They wound up with a 171/2549/17 line. The bad news? I predicted Julio’s stats for Roddy and Roddy’s stats for Julio with the exception of TD’s.

My Roddy 2012 prediction: 87/1192/7…he went for 92/1351/7.
My Julio 2012 prediction: 87/1339/12…he went for 79/1198/10.

Last year I was thinking that it was time to take over the #1 role and Roddy was coming off a drop plagued 2011. While I expected Roddy to bounceback, I expected him to do so as Julio emerged as the true #1. Didn’t quite happen that way – Roddy re-focused and was as reliable as ever. The Falcon passing attack raised its game to a new level last year with Matt Ryan starting to produce at prolific rates. When I reviewed my predictions for the Falcons of 2012, what I felt in retrospect was that I forecasted Julio’s rise to being the #1 WR on the Falcons too quickly. For as talented as he is, he was coming off his first season and first NFL off-season in terms of working at his craft. And at the end of the day, as far as the Falcons offense was concerned, he was still the 3rd most trusted target.

But Julio’s grasp of the pro game progressed last season and it’s telling that Roddy’s targets were the lowest of his 5 year career with Matt Ryan despite the fact that Ryan accumulated a career high 615 pass attempts. The strength of the Falcon passing attack now is that their Big 3 targets are almost all equally targeted (all within 19 targets of one another) but at the same time, they are explosive. Roddy will be 32 this season, but he doesn’t, or hasn’t shown signs of decline. He still catches the ball in traffic well…still fights for the ball strongly. There’s nothing that he does that drops your jaw, but he’s just so darn consistent and his bond with Ryan is as strong as any QB/WR paring in the NFL. If Ryan’s efficiency throwing to Julio ticks up, Julio might wind up technically as the #1 WR in Atlanta from a target perspective. But Roddy will produce if healthy and he’s never missed a game. While he’s a very safe player, I don’t think his YPC or receptions will be as high in 2013. But he’ll still qualify as a low-end WR1; high WR2.

Prediction: 84 Receptions 1157 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s.

 
From 2007-2012, Roddy averaged 94-1,296-8 a season. He is about as consistent and reliable as it gets at WR. Barring injury (to himself, Julio or Ryan), he is a near lock for numbers close to that again.

 
Great posts by DirtyWord and Ghost (well, thorough for DW and succint by Ghost) - but I agree 100%.

90/1200/8

As reliable a "lesser" WR1 as you can get. In my non-PPR the past 4 years he has finished at WR10, WR7, WR3 & WR7. Now if people are discounting him a bit due to his age, he would be one of the best WR2, as the numbers above would slip him into that WR10-14 range.

 
I don't feel as good about Roddy as some of you. His targets and receptions for the past 6 years:

137-83 (60.6%)

148-88 (59.5%)

165-85 (51.5%)

177-115 (65.0%)

179-100 (55.9%)

143-92 (64.3%)

His catch % numbers bounce around. If he regresses to the 55-60% or his targets drop, he's going to fall out of the top 10. If both happen, which I think they will, his value plummets. He finished WR10 last year and his ADP is WR10 this year. He does look like a safe pick given his historical numbers, but it is very difficult for me to draft a guy at his ceiling. With Julio Jones going into his third season, I don't see Roddy's slice of the targets pie getting any bigger. I expect last year's 143 to 128 split to even out, if not tilt in Julio's favor.

130 targets x 60% = 78 rec x 14 ypr = 1092 yds 6 TD

 
reminds me of the Reggie Wayne/Marvin Harrison deal..

everyone kept writing off Marvin but he kept producing at a high rate..Wayne never really took over till Marvin was gone..

same appears to be happening with Julio and Roddy..the old man will still be producing top numbers..

90/1200/8 sounds about right!

 
Part of me is starting to secretly enjoy being the Debbie Downer in these projections. (/ducks) Last year, the Falcons had one of the worst seasons by a full-time bellcow RB I've ever seen. As a result they ran for the fourth-fewest yards of any team in the NFL on the seventh-fewest carries, with Turner signally unable to move the chains when it counted. But they were still the 7th most prolific offense in the league, thanks to a passing attack that generated the eighth-most pass attempts in the league (615) for the sixth-most yards (4,509). Now Turner is out, and Steven Jackson is in, which is the rough equivalent of replacing 1973 Elvis with 1958 Elvis. Anyone who's blithely projecting the same or better stats for Julio and Roddy in 2013 is basically assuming that the Falcons couldn't run the ball in 2012 because they were throwing it so much, rather than the other way around. The two WRs were 11th and 7th, respectively, in the entire NFL in targets. Maybe they'll hit those numbers again, at the same time as S-Jax puts up a true S-Jax season. Maybe the 2013 Falcons will be spoken of in the same breath as the 2008 Patriots. But I'm inclined to doubt it. Of the two, I think Julio will maintain his target and catch numbers at the expense of Roddy, which puts the latter firmly into WR2 territory. At his current ADP of ~WR10 I think his risks are largely to the downside, and won't be eyeing him unless he falls significantly on draft boards. Projection: 146 targets, 83 rec., 1,148 yds (13.9 avg), 7 TD

 
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Personally I traded Roddy away in my dynasty league this year while I'm in rebuilding and moved up to 1.03 to snag Austin. That said, I think he still has another year or two of good solid low-mid WR1 production. Assuming Julio stays healthy all year, I'll say:

87 Rec, 1,250 yds, 8 TDs

 
Just like last year, I predict Roddy will finish ahead of Julio Jones in PPR in the WR7-10 range. Jones will score more TDs and finish higher in non-PPR.

 
Part of me is starting to secretly enjoy being the Debbie Downer in these projections. (/ducks) Last year, the Falcons had one of the worst seasons by a full-time bellcow RB I've ever seen. As a result they ran for the fourth-fewest yards of any team in the NFL on the seventh-fewest carries, with Turner signally unable to move the chains when it counted. But they were still the 7th most prolific offense in the league, thanks to a passing attack that generated the eighth-most pass attempts in the league (615) for the sixth-most yards (4,509). Now Turner is out, and Steven Jackson is in, which is the rough equivalent of replacing 1973 Elvis with 1958 Elvis. Anyone who's blithely projecting the same or better stats for Julio and Roddy in 2013 is basically assuming that the Falcons couldn't run the ball in 2012 because they were throwing it so much, rather than the other way around. The two WRs were 11th and 7th, respectively, in the entire NFL in targets. Maybe they'll hit those numbers again, at the same time as S-Jax puts up a true S-Jax season. Maybe the 2013 Falcons will be spoken of in the same breath as the 2008 Patriots. But I'm inclined to doubt it. Of the two, I think Julio will maintain his target and catch numbers at the expense of Roddy, which puts the latter firmly into WR2 territory. At his current ADP of ~WR10 I think his risks are largely to the downside, and won't be eyeing him unless he falls significantly on draft boards. Projection: 146 targets, 83 rec., 1,148 yds (13.9 avg), 7 TD
Roddy put up top 10 numbers even 5 years ago when Turner was much more capable than he was last year, and when Atlanta ran for a lot more yards than they did last year.

 
Thursday night’s game against the Ravens was a mostly positive one for the Falcons first-teamers, but any smiles will be premature until they get a diagnosis on wide receiver Roddy White.

White left the game in the first quarter after injuring his ankle. The initial reports during the game were that he was questionable to return to the contest, but White never got back on the field. Coach Mike Smith didn’t have much information right after the game.

“I have not had a chance to speak in depth with Roddy,” Smith said, via D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “We made a decision that Roddy was not going to come back in the ball game. When we have [more] information on that we’ll give it to you. But until we get more information, I don’t want to speak to it.”

White didn’t have any catches before leaving the game. An extended absence wouldn’t be a total disaster for the Falcons as they have several other offensive threats, but it would certainly threaten tight end Tony Gonzalez’s hope that the team will have the “perfect” offense in 2013.

 
The fact that they had to make a decision to not come back in the game tells me their was a decision to be made and that it was not a no brainer to sit him. While I have seen no updated reports, I have a vested interest and it looked at the replay over and over. White tweaked his RIGHT ankle while jumping for a ball in the fashion to the way Geno rolled his, he came down on his ankle and then jumped up quickly argued for a penalty then jogged off the field with no signs of any injury. Later on while looking for him on the sidelines before half time i saw him walking on the sidelines, but did not see him on the sidelines after halftime.

Doesnt help much, I know.

He made this post on twitter after the game. A bunch of squares which do not show up with the hashtag after them.

Roddy White@roddywhiteTV9h
#thankfortheloveandsupportfans


Expand
 
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Roddy White has been diagnosed with a "low" ankle sprain, and is day to day.
Per NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, White would play through the injury were it the regular season. As it is, he's expected to miss some practice time and likely next week's regular season dress rehearsal as he looks to get back to 100 percent before Week 1. White has never missed a game in eight NFL seasons. His health isn't a question mark.


Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
Aug 16 - 9:35 AM

 
Until a year or an offseason happens that gives me a real and compelling reason not to just pencil him in for 90/1200/8, give or take, I'm going to assume it'll just keep on happening that way.

 
Until a year or an offseason happens that gives me a real and compelling reason not to just pencil him in for 90/1200/8, give or take, I'm going to assume it'll just keep on happening that way.
Exactly, amazing how people forget about some stars because another one joined the team. Julio is great, but so is Roddy, I actually think Roddy will hang around or maybe even outperform Julio this year in total PPR points.

 
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Until a year or an offseason happens that gives me a real and compelling reason not to just pencil him in for 90/1200/8, give or take, I'm going to assume it'll just keep on happening that way.
Exactly, amazing how people forget about some stars because another one joined the team. Julio is great, but so is Roddy, I actually think Roddy will hang around or maybe even outperform Julio this year in total PPR points.
Every league needs a few people who look at past performance and blindly expect it to continue. Analyzing changing situations? Not for everyone, thankfully.

 
Part of me is starting to secretly enjoy being the Debbie Downer in these projections. (/ducks) Last year, the Falcons had one of the worst seasons by a full-time bellcow RB I've ever seen. As a result they ran for the fourth-fewest yards of any team in the NFL on the seventh-fewest carries, with Turner signally unable to move the chains when it counted. But they were still the 7th most prolific offense in the league, thanks to a passing attack that generated the eighth-most pass attempts in the league (615) for the sixth-most yards (4,509). Now Turner is out, and Steven Jackson is in, which is the rough equivalent of replacing 1973 Elvis with 1958 Elvis. Anyone who's blithely projecting the same or better stats for Julio and Roddy in 2013 is basically assuming that the Falcons couldn't run the ball in 2012 because they were throwing it so much, rather than the other way around. The two WRs were 11th and 7th, respectively, in the entire NFL in targets. Maybe they'll hit those numbers again, at the same time as S-Jax puts up a true S-Jax season. Maybe the 2013 Falcons will be spoken of in the same breath as the 2008 Patriots. But I'm inclined to doubt it. Of the two, I think Julio will maintain his target and catch numbers at the expense of Roddy, which puts the latter firmly into WR2 territory. At his current ADP of ~WR10 I think his risks are largely to the downside, and won't be eyeing him unless he falls significantly on draft boards. Projection: 146 targets, 83 rec., 1,148 yds (13.9 avg), 7 TD
Roddy put up top 10 numbers even 5 years ago when Turner was much more capable than he was last year, and when Atlanta ran for a lot more yards than they did last year.
Julio wasn't around 5 years ago either though.

 
Until a year or an offseason happens that gives me a real and compelling reason not to just pencil him in for 90/1200/8, give or take, I'm going to assume it'll just keep on happening that way.
Exactly, amazing how people forget about some stars because another one joined the team. Julio is great, but so is Roddy, I actually think Roddy will hang around or maybe even outperform Julio this year in total PPR points.
Every league needs a few people who look at past performance and blindly expect it to continue. Analyzing changing situations? Not for everyone, thankfully.
Just as every league needs a few people who look at situations that haven't changed, and try to shoehorn change in somehow even though age, performance, system, and situation all suggest continuity. Seeing what's actually happening on the roster and on the field? Not for everyone, thankfully.

 
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Until a year or an offseason happens that gives me a real and compelling reason not to just pencil him in for 90/1200/8, give or take, I'm going to assume it'll just keep on happening that way.
Exactly, amazing how people forget about some stars because another one joined the team. Julio is great, but so is Roddy, I actually think Roddy will hang around or maybe even outperform Julio this year in total PPR points.
Every league needs a few people who look at past performance and blindly expect it to continue. Analyzing changing situations? Not for everyone, thankfully.
1. FF Queen is a awesome name.

2. Do you realize how irrational you sound by not taking a persons past performance into account.

3. Thank god for people like you on this board, people who think they know more than they actually do and allow us to educate them.

4. Still waiting for you to respond to any of my call outs of you and show me some thread you started that has insight and shows worth other than being a troll.

5. You continue to stalk me, I am not taken by your advances, thanks though.

 
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So because Julio Jones is on the Falcons, Roddy White sucks? Got it.

Note to self, do not draft Roddy because of the highly convincing logic that having another good player who happens to be younger on the team means the older highly successful WR will suck. Noted.

Foolish comments about a players value deserves foolish comments.

 
Rotoworld

Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff says the team is "hoping" Roddy White (ankle) will be ready for Week 1.
It's likely just an exercise in executive-speak, but it's interesting Dimitroff didn't talk in more emphatic terms. White's ankle sprain was deemed as "minor" and "low" when he suffered it in Atlanta's second preseason game, but it wouldn't be the first time a team tried to conceal a high-ankle sprain. 24 days will have elapsed since White went down when the Falcons take the field for Week 1. Whatever the severity of White's injury, we expect him to suit up. He's never missed a game.
 
Falcons should be fined, they lead everyone on that Roddy was fine and did not have a high ankle sprain; well guess what.... hes had a high ankle sprain since the 2nd pre-season game.

 
reminds me of the Reggie Wayne/Marvin Harrison deal..everyone kept writing off Marvin but he kept producing at a high rate..Wayne never really took over till Marvin was gone..same appears to be happening with Julio and Roddy.
And do you remember how Marvin went out? He had a nagging injury, and everyone kept saying "hold", waiting for him to bounce back some time during the season. By the end of the year, people were still waiting, and Marvin never came back.

 
reminds me of the Reggie Wayne/Marvin Harrison deal..everyone kept writing off Marvin but he kept producing at a high rate..Wayne never really took over till Marvin was gone..same appears to be happening with Julio and Roddy.
And do you remember how Marvin went out? He had a nagging injury, and everyone kept saying "hold", waiting for him to bounce back some time during the season. By the end of the year, people were still waiting, and Marvin never came back.
Except Julio is outproducing Roddy. Doesn't mean Roddy has no value, but Julio is the team's #1 to Roddy's 1a. Closest thing we've seen since Bruce/Holt's glory years.

 
Falcons should be fined, they lead everyone on that Roddy was fine and did not have a high ankle sprain; well guess what.... hes had a high ankle sprain since the 2nd pre-season game.
Indeed. How long does the dreaded HAS usually take to heal? 6 weeks?
All I know is I am stashing him on my bench until he shows on the field that he can have that kind of explosion. I will miss that first big week from him, but I won't slog through three or four weeks of 2-23-0.

 
reminds me of the Reggie Wayne/Marvin Harrison deal..everyone kept writing off Marvin but he kept producing at a high rate..Wayne never really took over till Marvin was gone..same appears to be happening with Julio and Roddy.
And do you remember how Marvin went out? He had a nagging injury, and everyone kept saying "hold", waiting for him to bounce back some time during the season. By the end of the year, people were still waiting, and Marvin never came back.
Holy hell do I ever remember that. There was a game early in the season against TB I think it was, and we were told that if it had been a playoff game or playoff type/atmosphere game, or something like that, he would have played. I held, and held, and held, and HELD. ugh. From a fantasy perspective that is the single worse thing that can happen.

 
Falcons should be fined, they lead everyone on that Roddy was fine and did not have a high ankle sprain; well guess what.... hes had a high ankle sprain since the 2nd pre-season game.
Indeed. How long does the dreaded HAS usually take to heal? 6 weeks?
Yes up to 6 weeks. So it could be another couple weeks before he's at full strength. This is not a good situation and the Falcons basically lied about the severity of his injury in the preseason.

 
Falcons should be fined, they lead everyone on that Roddy was fine and did not have a high ankle sprain; well guess what.... hes had a high ankle sprain since the 2nd pre-season game.
Indeed. How long does the dreaded HAS usually take to heal? 6 weeks?
Yes up to 6 weeks. So it could be another couple weeks before he's at full strength. This is not a good situation and the Falcons basically lied about the severity of his injury in the preseason.
There's no "basically" about it. They did lie.

 
Falcons should be fined, they lead everyone on that Roddy was fine and did not have a high ankle sprain; well guess what.... hes had a high ankle sprain since the 2nd pre-season game.
Indeed. How long does the dreaded HAS usually take to heal? 6 weeks?
Yes up to 6 weeks. So it could be another couple weeks before he's at full strength. This is not a good situation and the Falcons basically lied about the severity of his injury in the preseason.
There's no "basically" about it. They did lie.
hes going to be like till Oct, just gotta hope he doesn't tweak it or something

 

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