Player Spotlight: Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Hakeem Nicks Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Contract year and he has something to prove. Last season Cruz was the value pick and many smart owners picked him up instead of Nicks. This year you can flip that. Nicks is now the value play and is the more talented of the two, he just needs to remain healthy. If he is there in the 5th or 6th round of your draft I think he is difficult to pass up.

80 receptions

1250 yards

10 TDs

Biggest ADP steal going right now. His price is going to go up during training camp as draft season approaches.

1,100 yards. 9 TDs.

I think Nicks is one of the best sleepers in this years draft. He missed 3 games last year, but it was basically 5 as he wasn't targeted the final 2 games of the season. You could even argue that after week 2, he just wasn't the same. He wasn't explosive, and you could just tell the knee was keeping him from being 100%. He had minor surgery this offseason to clean up his knee, and he says he is 100%. With Cruz getting paid, and Nicks being in a contract year, I suspect a highly motivated Nicks and him sniffing with being a WR1.

In the 11 games he was targeted, he had 17 targets in the red zone. Cruz had 19, but in a full season. He is an outside threat, and a big target for Eli when they get close, more so than Cruz. I think that if you are comfortable taking a risk due to him being unhealthy the past few years, he is a steal this year going in the 5th or 6th round.

My projection: 132 targets, 82 receptions, 14.7 YPC = 1208 Yards, 10 TD's = 180 standard FP.

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1. But in four seasons he has yet to play 16 games. That didn't stop him from finishing WR8 and WR12 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but nagging injuries saw him slip out of relevance last year as he finished WR54 while playing in 13 games. If he were to ever stay healthy for 16 games, he'd probably exceed 85/1300/10 but I'm beginning to think he'll never actually be healthy in straight games. I'm sure he'll limp through 16 games at some point in his career, but I'm not sure we'll ever see him completely healthy.

That being said, when he's healthy he put ups WR1 PPG, so if you're confident in your ability to draft depth at WR, then I recommend snagging him as your WR2 this year. Just be ready to slide your WR4 into his position as soon as he gets hurt. There's always the off chance you get lucky and land the 2011 version of Nicks. He played 15 regular season games and then beasted it up in the playoffs to a tune of 28/444/4 in four games.

135 targets, 78 rec, 1200 yds 9 TD

FF Ninja said:

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1. But in four seasons he has yet to play 16 games. That didn't stop him from finishing WR8 and WR12 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but nagging injuries saw him slip out of relevance last year as he finished WR54 while playing in 13 games. If he were to ever stay healthy for 16 games, he'd probably exceed 85/1300/10 but I'm beginning to think he'll never actually be healthy in straight games. I'm sure he'll limp through 16 games at some point in his career, but I'm not sure we'll ever see him completely healthy.

That being said, when he's healthy he put ups WR1 PPG, so if you're confident in your ability to draft depth at WR, then I recommend snagging him as your WR2 this year. Just be ready to slide your WR4 into his position as soon as he gets hurt. There's always the off chance you get lucky and land the 2011 version of Nicks. He played 15 regular season games and then beasted it up in the playoffs to a tune of 28/444/4 in four games.

135 targets, 78 rec, 1200 yds 9 TD

Click to expand...

Nicks is a steal at WR18. He could finish in the top 10 WRs easily if he stays healthy, maybe even the top 5, since he has potential to score 12-13 TDs. Sure he's an injury risk, but you're taking him as your WR2. The market has clearly overcorrected due to his injury history. Nicks is a type of guy that I will try and get in every draft.....a talented player coming off of an injury riddled season.

85-1250-10

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1. But in four seasons he has yet to play 16 games. That didn't stop him from finishing WR8 and WR12 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but nagging injuries saw him slip out of relevance last year as he finished WR54 while playing in 13 games. If he were to ever stay healthy for 16 games, he'd probably exceed 85/1300/10 but I'm beginning to think he'll never actually be healthy in straight games. I'm sure he'll limp through 16 games at some point in his career, but I'm not sure we'll ever see him completely healthy.

That being said, when he's healthy he put ups WR1 PPG, so if you're confident in your ability to draft depth at WR, then I recommend snagging him as your WR2 this year. Just be ready to slide your WR4 into his position as soon as he gets hurt. There's always the off chance you get lucky and land the 2011 version of Nicks. He played 15 regular season games and then beasted it up in the playoffs to a tune of 28/444/4 in four games.

135 targets, 78 rec, 1200 yds 9 TD

Click to expand...

Nicks is a steal at WR18. He could finish in the top 10 WRs easily if he stays healthy, maybe even the top 5, since he has potential to score 12-13 TDs. Sure he's an injury risk, but you're taking him as your WR2. The market has clearly overcorrected due to his injury history. Nicks is a type of guy that I will try and get in every draft.....a talented player coming off of an injury riddled season.

85-1250-10

Click to expand...

Yes, his ceiling is high, but so is the risk-factor. We've seen him get banged up too often to just assume he'll stay healthy. I don't think WR18 is an over-correction. It seems about right for a a guy with his risk vs. potential.

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1. But in four seasons he has yet to play 16 games. That didn't stop him from finishing WR8 and WR12 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but nagging injuries saw him slip out of relevance last year as he finished WR54 while playing in 13 games. If he were to ever stay healthy for 16 games, he'd probably exceed 85/1300/10 but I'm beginning to think he'll never actually be healthy in straight games. I'm sure he'll limp through 16 games at some point in his career, but I'm not sure we'll ever see him completely healthy.

That being said, when he's healthy he put ups WR1 PPG, so if you're confident in your ability to draft depth at WR, then I recommend snagging him as your WR2 this year. Just be ready to slide your WR4 into his position as soon as he gets hurt. There's always the off chance you get lucky and land the 2011 version of Nicks. He played 15 regular season games and then beasted it up in the playoffs to a tune of 28/444/4 in four games.

135 targets, 78 rec, 1200 yds 9 TD

Click to expand...

Nicks is a steal at WR18. He could finish in the top 10 WRs easily if he stays healthy, maybe even the top 5, since he has potential to score 12-13 TDs. Sure he's an injury risk, but you're taking him as your WR2. The market has clearly overcorrected due to his injury history. Nicks is a type of guy that I will try and get in every draft.....a talented player coming off of an injury riddled season.

85-1250-10

Click to expand...

I can't tell if you are disagreeing with me or not. Our projection is almost the same. You seem to have confused yourself, though. You justify his injury risk by saying he's just a WR2 for your team, but then you say the market has overreacted. Would you be able to justify his injury risk if he was being drafted as a WR1? If not, then the market has apparently reacted exactly as you would, thus he's not actually a steal.

FF Ninja said:

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1. But in four seasons he has yet to play 16 games. That didn't stop him from finishing WR8 and WR12 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but nagging injuries saw him slip out of relevance last year as he finished WR54 while playing in 13 games. If he were to ever stay healthy for 16 games, he'd probably exceed 85/1300/10 but I'm beginning to think he'll never actually be healthy in straight games. I'm sure he'll limp through 16 games at some point in his career, but I'm not sure we'll ever see him completely healthy.

That being said, when he's healthy he put ups WR1 PPG, so if you're confident in your ability to draft depth at WR, then I recommend snagging him as your WR2 this year. Just be ready to slide your WR4 into his position as soon as he gets hurt. There's always the off chance you get lucky and land the 2011 version of Nicks. He played 15 regular season games and then beasted it up in the playoffs to a tune of 28/444/4 in four games.

135 targets, 78 rec, 1200 yds 9 TD

Click to expand...

Nicks is a steal at WR18. He could finish in the top 10 WRs easily if he stays healthy, maybe even the top 5, since he has potential to score 12-13 TDs. Sure he's an injury risk, but you're taking him as your WR2. The market has clearly overcorrected due to his injury history. Nicks is a type of guy that I will try and get in every draft.....a talented player coming off of an injury riddled season.

85-1250-10

Click to expand...

I can't tell if you are disagreeing with me or not. Our projection is almost the same. You seem to have confused yourself, though. You justify his injury risk by saying he's just a WR2 for your team, but then you say the market has overreacted. Would you be able to justify his injury risk if he was being drafted as a WR1? If not, then the market has apparently reacted exactly as you would, thus he's not actually a steal.

Click to expand...

No I am not really confused. IMO, Nicks has top 10 WR talent, would be right there with Julio, Dez and D Thomas if it weren't for the prior injuries. Going from say WR7 to WR18 is pretty steep IMO. That's going from 2nd round ADP to round 4-5 ADP. Would I take him at WR7 over someone like Julio or D Thomas? No of course not. But the point I was making is that you're drafting Nicks as your WR2. WR2s are much more easily replaceable than a WR1. You will already have one great WR as your anchor WR1, so why not roll the dice with Nicks? Plus, compared to WRs with similar ADPs.....(Colston, Wayne, Amendola, Bowe), Nicks has the most upside compared to these WRs. So I have him as WR7 or WR8 in terms of pure talent, and I am drafting him at a pretty discounted price at WR18, at a position that is extremely deep. Even if Nicks misses a couple of games....just plug in your WR4. IMO, Nicks + WR4 for two games will exceed another WR drafted there that has less injury risk.

That's a steal to me.

I agree with your projection and your recommendation to draft him....

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1. But in four seasons he has yet to play 16 games. That didn't stop him from finishing WR8 and WR12 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but nagging injuries saw him slip out of relevance last year as he finished WR54 while playing in 13 games. If he were to ever stay healthy for 16 games, he'd probably exceed 85/1300/10 but I'm beginning to think he'll never actually be healthy in straight games. I'm sure he'll limp through 16 games at some point in his career, but I'm not sure we'll ever see him completely healthy.

That being said, when he's healthy he put ups WR1 PPG, so if you're confident in your ability to draft depth at WR, then I recommend snagging him as your WR2 this year. Just be ready to slide your WR4 into his position as soon as he gets hurt. There's always the off chance you get lucky and land the 2011 version of Nicks. He played 15 regular season games and then beasted it up in the playoffs to a tune of 28/444/4 in four games.

135 targets, 78 rec, 1200 yds 9 TD

Click to expand...

Nicks is a steal at WR18. He could finish in the top 10 WRs easily if he stays healthy, maybe even the top 5, since he has potential to score 12-13 TDs. Sure he's an injury risk, but you're taking him as your WR2. The market has clearly overcorrected due to his injury history. Nicks is a type of guy that I will try and get in every draft.....a talented player coming off of an injury riddled season.

85-1250-10

Click to expand...

I can't tell if you are disagreeing with me or not. Our projection is almost the same. You seem to have confused yourself, though. You justify his injury risk by saying he's just a WR2 for your team, but then you say the market has overreacted. Would you be able to justify his injury risk if he was being drafted as a WR1? If not, then the market has apparently reacted exactly as you would, thus he's not actually a steal.

Click to expand...

No I am not really confused. IMO, Nicks has top 10 WR talent, would be right there with Julio, Dez and D Thomas if it weren't for the prior injuries. Going from say WR7 to WR18 is pretty steep IMO. That's going from 2nd round ADP to round 4-5 ADP.

Click to expand...

Not really man. People drop from top 10 to 15-20 every year. Multiple people even. It's Nicks this year, and Britt, and probably a few others. Nicks was rated WR4 on PFF in dynasty last year at this time, and Britt was around 10th. Both are out of the top 15 this year. I firmly believe Nicks has elite skills ... I was at the Packers game in the playoffs when he torched them for 2TDs and a lot of yards ... he made the defense look hapless (given, the defense sucked that year, but still, he tilts the field).

I plan on grabbing Nicks wherever I can given his current ADP this year.The Giants are going to be very balanced this year and I think they are easily Super Bowl contenders. Balanced offense is good for Nicks and I think it will lead to an easy 85/1200/8.

Any receiver who's young, been near the top before, and going outside the top 15-20 receivers is worth a shot. I see Nicks as a great fit for a team that spends its early picks on, say, a first-round RB, Jimmy Graham, and Peyton Manning. I think he has a higher ceiling than many of the guys going right around him (Wayne, Amendola, Welker); he's the sort of piece that, if he hits, can mitigate a lot of the problems you can run into if you burn early picks on the traditional start-1 positions.

If there's no sign in camp of the foot and knee injuries that hampered him all last year--i.e., they were just injuries, not a chronic weakness/condition that he'll be dealing with for a long time--he's a very nice pick. Assuming 16 games, I'll say 74 rec, 1080 yards, 9 TD--somewhere around WR10-12.

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1. But in four seasons he has yet to play 16 games. That didn't stop him from finishing WR8 and WR12 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but nagging injuries saw him slip out of relevance last year as he finished WR54 while playing in 13 games. If he were to ever stay healthy for 16 games, he'd probably exceed 85/1300/10 but I'm beginning to think he'll never actually be healthy in straight games. I'm sure he'll limp through 16 games at some point in his career, but I'm not sure we'll ever see him completely healthy.

That being said, when he's healthy he put ups WR1 PPG, so if you're confident in your ability to draft depth at WR, then I recommend snagging him as your WR2 this year. Just be ready to slide your WR4 into his position as soon as he gets hurt. There's always the off chance you get lucky and land the 2011 version of Nicks. He played 15 regular season games and then beasted it up in the playoffs to a tune of 28/444/4 in four games.

135 targets, 78 rec, 1200 yds 9 TD

Click to expand...

Nicks is a steal at WR18. He could finish in the top 10 WRs easily if he stays healthy, maybe even the top 5, since he has potential to score 12-13 TDs. Sure he's an injury risk, but you're taking him as your WR2. The market has clearly overcorrected due to his injury history. Nicks is a type of guy that I will try and get in every draft.....a talented player coming off of an injury riddled season.

85-1250-10

Click to expand...

I can't tell if you are disagreeing with me or not. Our projection is almost the same. You seem to have confused yourself, though. You justify his injury risk by saying he's just a WR2 for your team, but then you say the market has overreacted. Would you be able to justify his injury risk if he was being drafted as a WR1? If not, then the market has apparently reacted exactly as you would, thus he's not actually a steal.

Click to expand...

No I am not really confused. IMO, Nicks has top 10 WR talent, would be right there with Julio, Dez and D Thomas if it weren't for the prior injuries. Going from say WR7 to WR18 is pretty steep IMO. That's going from 2nd round ADP to round 4-5 ADP. Would I take him at WR7 over someone like Julio or D Thomas? No of course not. But the point I was making is that you're drafting Nicks as your WR2. WR2s are much more easily replaceable than a WR1. You will already have one great WR as your anchor WR1, so why not roll the dice with Nicks? Plus, compared to WRs with similar ADPs.....(Colston, Wayne, Amendola, Bowe), Nicks has the most upside compared to these WRs. So I have him as WR7 or WR8 in terms of pure talent, and I am drafting him at a pretty discounted price at WR18, at a position that is extremely deep. Even if Nicks misses a couple of games....just plug in your WR4. IMO, Nicks + WR4 for two games will exceed another WR drafted there that has less injury risk.

That's a steal to me.

I agree with your projection and your recommendation to draft him....

Click to expand...

I'm probably picking nits here, but you are constantly contradicting yourself. You acknowledge his injury risk and say it's cool because he's just a WR2, but then you say you would not draft him as a WR1, yet you call him a steal as a WR2. You even call him a roll of the dice.

His highest finish was WR8 in 2010, then he finished WR12 in 2011. This year the 8th WR off the board is going in the 3rd round. The 12th is going in the early 4th. So Nicks going in the late 4th/early 5th is not a "steal" if you yourself would not draft him as a WR1. To me a guy is a steal if I would actually take him in the 2nd round but I can wait to get him in the 5th. With his injury history, I'd be crazy to take Nicks in the 2nd. Instead, I consider him a good gamble in the 5th rather than a steal. Keep in mind he played 13 games last year and finished WR54. That's a scary downside. I'd rather a guy just go on the IR than tease me into starting him and then put up duds. With this being a contract year, you know he's going to try to stay on the field. That could be good or bad.

FF Ninja said:

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

fightingillini said:

FF Ninja said:

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1. But in four seasons he has yet to play 16 games. That didn't stop him from finishing WR8 and WR12 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but nagging injuries saw him slip out of relevance last year as he finished WR54 while playing in 13 games. If he were to ever stay healthy for 16 games, he'd probably exceed 85/1300/10 but I'm beginning to think he'll never actually be healthy in straight games. I'm sure he'll limp through 16 games at some point in his career, but I'm not sure we'll ever see him completely healthy.

That being said, when he's healthy he put ups WR1 PPG, so if you're confident in your ability to draft depth at WR, then I recommend snagging him as your WR2 this year. Just be ready to slide your WR4 into his position as soon as he gets hurt. There's always the off chance you get lucky and land the 2011 version of Nicks. He played 15 regular season games and then beasted it up in the playoffs to a tune of 28/444/4 in four games.

135 targets, 78 rec, 1200 yds 9 TD

Click to expand...

Nicks is a steal at WR18. He could finish in the top 10 WRs easily if he stays healthy, maybe even the top 5, since he has potential to score 12-13 TDs. Sure he's an injury risk, but you're taking him as your WR2. The market has clearly overcorrected due to his injury history. Nicks is a type of guy that I will try and get in every draft.....a talented player coming off of an injury riddled season.

85-1250-10

Click to expand...

I can't tell if you are disagreeing with me or not. Our projection is almost the same. You seem to have confused yourself, though. You justify his injury risk by saying he's just a WR2 for your team, but then you say the market has overreacted. Would you be able to justify his injury risk if he was being drafted as a WR1? If not, then the market has apparently reacted exactly as you would, thus he's not actually a steal.

Click to expand...

No I am not really confused. IMO, Nicks has top 10 WR talent, would be right there with Julio, Dez and D Thomas if it weren't for the prior injuries. Going from say WR7 to WR18 is pretty steep IMO. That's going from 2nd round ADP to round 4-5 ADP. Would I take him at WR7 over someone like Julio or D Thomas? No of course not. But the point I was making is that you're drafting Nicks as your WR2. WR2s are much more easily replaceable than a WR1. You will already have one great WR as your anchor WR1, so why not roll the dice with Nicks? Plus, compared to WRs with similar ADPs.....(Colston, Wayne, Amendola, Bowe), Nicks has the most upside compared to these WRs. So I have him as WR7 or WR8 in terms of pure talent, and I am drafting him at a pretty discounted price at WR18, at a position that is extremely deep. Even if Nicks misses a couple of games....just plug in your WR4. IMO, Nicks + WR4 for two games will exceed another WR drafted there that has less injury risk.

That's a steal to me.

I agree with your projection and your recommendation to draft him....

Click to expand...

I'm probably picking nits here, but you are constantly contradicting yourself. You acknowledge his injury risk and say it's cool because he's just a WR2, but then you say you would not draft him as a WR1, yet you call him a steal as a WR2. You even call him a roll of the dice.

His highest finish was WR8 in 2010, then he finished WR12 in 2011. This year the 8th WR off the board is going in the 3rd round. The 12th is going in the early 4th. So Nicks going in the late 4th/early 5th is not a "steal" if you yourself would not draft him as a WR1. To me a guy is a steal if I would actually take him in the 2nd round but I can wait to get him in the 5th. With his injury history, I'd be crazy to take Nicks in the 2nd. Instead, I consider him a good gamble in the 5th rather than a steal. Keep in mind he played 13 games last year and finished WR54. That's a scary downside. I'd rather a guy just go on the IR than tease me into starting him and then put up duds. With this being a contract year, you know he's going to try to stay on the field. That could be good or bad.

Click to expand...

You are picking nits a little bit.....with semantics.

If Nicks were 100% healthy, he's a late 2nd round pick in my eyes (yes, I am very high on Nicks' talent).

I discount him about 1 round for his injury history, where most seem to discount him 2 rounds. So since I can get him in Round 4 or maybe even Round 5, that's very nice value in my eyes. We're playing with semantics here. Maybe "steal" is a strong word. But he's a very good value pick with an ADP of WR18, and since there is not a huge dropoff between WRs between 20 and 35, you can easily find a replacement in case Nicks does miss significant time. (or you can hedge your bet by taking a couple more WRs in the 20-40 range).

You mentioned his best finish is WR8. I think he's capable of a finish higher than that since I think he's capable of 12-14 TD receptions. So IMO his upside is top 5 WR.

I would love to roster Nicks as my WR2 when he has that kind of upside, and his ADP more than compensates for the injury risk in my eyes, since the odds of replacing Nicks with a comparable WR2 is pretty good, so I don't worry about his downside as much.

So where I disagree with others is how much to discount Nicks for his injury risk. I would be comfortable drafting him at WR12 or so, but I do prefer not having him as my WR1.

If you want to call it a good gamble......fine, I definitely agree with that. How about Nicks could potentially be a "steal" if he indeed has a very big year.

FF Ninja said:

People act like he's falling to the 8th round here. Nicks is going in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues as WR18. I like his talent and will be happy to land him, but I think his price is right. If he stays healthy, he'll almost certainly be a WR1.

Click to expand...

In a FFPC... FBG Championship style money draft right now heading into round 6 and he's on the board with 21 WR's gone