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Lets Discuss 2013 Best Ball Strategies


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#1 pizzatyme

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 03:19 PM

Please list your thoughts and make sure to include:

Overall Strategy
Positional Strategy
Draft Slot Strategy
Anything else- sleepers in this format, RBBC, QBBC, TEBC, etc.

This is my primary format and it seems to have little emphasis on FBGs. I primarily play in an FFPC format which is 1.5PPR for TEs and dual flex.

For myself, I've adopted a wait on QB philosophy, which means no earlier than 9th rd. I usually wait even later than that.

TEs tend to go earlier, but in this format, I tend to wait until 10 or so are taken.

I'll discuss more later, but wanted to start a conversation.
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#2 nirad3

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 03:40 PM

Wait on QB even longer than normal sounds like a good plan for best ball. 



#3 Lavachebeadsman

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 12:34 AM

In Best Ball, I find myself waiting on WR longer than normal. No real value to consistency in that format. Vincent Jackson, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon and Danario Alexander are great Best Ball WR's and guys I've snatched up all summer long.


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#4 Uruk-Hai

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 04:51 AM

In Best Ball, I find myself waiting on WR longer than normal. No real value to consistency in that format. Vincent Jackson, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon and Danario Alexander are great Best Ball WR's and guys I've snatched up all summer long.

 

In Best Ball, I find myself waiting on WR longer than normal. No real value to consistency in that format. Vincent Jackson, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon and Danario Alexander are great Best Ball WR's and guys I've snatched up all summer long.

Agree for the most part, though I like to have one high-catch guy. Then fill the rest out with boom or bust WRs.

 

Draft position matters a ton in developing an overall strategy, especially larger leagues. In the FBGs leagues (16 teams, Survivor), I seem to always draw really high 1st round picks. So I'm not getting a stud WR or TE (or QB) if I go RB at, say, #3. Picking on the ends also means you're missing on several runs between picks. Since the drafters in those leagues are so good, you rarely have value drop very far. Sometimes you feel like you're reaching, but not really if you don't think the player will be there when you pick again - doesn't matter if you think he'll go one pick after you or 28 picks later.

 

In those leagues, you go in knowing you're going to feel weak on paper at at least two positions. If you're picking high in the 1st, you're not going to be studded-out (say, 2 top 10 guys) at any position (well, I guess you could at K & D), but you have the chance to take an abolute stud at your preferred position. Picking late, you can do it but you'll feel like you're behind everywhere else. Picking in the middle offers the best chance of balance (if that's your thing) and you are less open to getting killed by runs, but you don't get the chance to take 2 very similarly-valued players close together.



#5 BassNBrew

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 06:01 AM

I like WR tandems when possible.  Chase killed us a few years back with Fitz/Boldin.  Every week one of them had a monster week.  Nicks/Cruz could be explosive this year.

 

This year I think Moore/Streeter and Brown/Sanders offer some excellent tandem value.



#6 pizzatyme

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 06:12 AM

I also like tandems. I've looked at the Browns, Chiefs, and Jets WRs since you can get them relatively cheap and one if the 2 is likely to hit most weeks.

I've drafted 2 FFPC Draft Masters thus far and had the #1 pick in both. Even in the 12-team leagues you can get killed in the positional runs.

I've also noticed that this year more than most, there is a crazy early run in RBs.
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#7 Uruk-Hai

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 06:25 AM

 

I've also noticed that this year more than most, there is a crazy early run in RBs.

Interesting. When, how long, and how deep do the runs go?



#8 pizzatyme

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 07:34 AM

 
I've also noticed that this year more than most, there is a crazy early run in RBs.

Interesting. When, how long, and how deep do the runs go?

Through 3 Rds, 3QBs, 2 TEs, 8 WRs, 23 RBs.

I know each raft is different, but both of these drafts have been very similar.
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#9 plastik

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 06:00 PM

 

 

 
I've also noticed that this year more than most, there is a crazy early run in RBs.

Interesting. When, how long, and how deep do the runs go?

Through 3 Rds, 3QBs, 2 TEs, 8 WRs, 23 RBs.

I know each raft is different, but both of these drafts have been very similar.

 

 

I'm on my 5th MFL 10 draft and its been pretty much the same there.  The effect is that those who miss out on RBs in the early rounds end up reaching on guys at that position in rounds 4-6, trying to fill their RB2 and RB3 spots.  LeVeon Bell is going pretty regularly in the mid to late 4th, with Lacy and Ball close behind.  Shane Vereen is going pretty regularly in the mid 5th or early 6th.

 

One other thing that I think is an important aspect that impacts strategy is roster size.  In the MFL 10s the roster is pretty small at 20 (start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1TE, 1 Flex, K, D), especially if you choose (as most do) to carry two Ds and Ks.  I find myself constantly struggling to decide which position to carry an extra player at.  I guess I'd wonder what other's ideal roster's would look like.

 

I usually start off thinking:  2 QB / 6 RB / 6 WR / 2 TE / 2 D / 2K

 

Depending on how things unfold I quickly find myself adjusting this, as I think you have to be really flexible.

 

If, because of the value that falls to me at my picks, I end up starting off with 4 RBs and 4 WRs and miss on top QBs and TEs I may shift to: 3 QB / 4 RB / 6 WR / 3 TE / 2 D / 2 K.

 

In a deeper league I'd play all this differently, as I'd probably make sure I was strong at QB, RB, and TE and load up on cheap WRs that could break long TDs--Denarius Moore (10th round ADP), Sydney Rice (11th), DHB (14th), Randle (15th).

 

Anyway, I'm not sure what this all contributes to the conversation as it all seems pretty obvious now that I've written it, but I think roster size and positional ratios are an important aspect of Best Ball, and worthy of more discussion. 


Edited by plastik, 13 July 2013 - 06:00 PM.


#10 pizzatyme

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 08:37 PM

BB with a 20 man roster is tough! Do you do FAs?

FFPC does 26 without FAs. I like that format as you get what you get, so to speak. :)
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#11 plastik

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Posted 14 July 2013 - 10:42 AM

BB with a 20 man roster is tough! Do you do FAs?

FFPC does 26 without FAs. I like that format as you get what you get, so to speak. :)

 

No FAs in MFL10s... pretty tough.

 

I was wondering about the question of 2QBs with one taken earlier or 3QBs taken late.  I quickly looked at the numbers in 2012 and, though there is nothing scientific or precise about this exercise here's what I found with a very quick look:

 

In the MFL 10 format here are the starting QB scores the following combinations would have yielded:

 

Brees and Luck: 416.8

Rodgers and Romo: 415.5

Peyton and Roethlisberger: 386.1

Cam and Eli: 384.7

Ryan and Eli: 379.3

 

Dalton, Freeman, Flacco: 389.1

Dalton, Roethlisberger, Schaub: 381

Freeman, Schaub, Bradford: 378.3

Bradford, Palmer, Rivers: 360.8

Weeden, Tannehill, Ponder: 315.1

 

Not sure that this means much, but it does seem like unless you're landing a truly elite QB, you can do just fine waiting on QB and picking up three guys in the QB12-24 range.  That is, as long as you don't pick three stinkers.  This year I feel pretty good about platooning three of Dalton (ADP in the 10th), Flacco (11th), Roethlisberger (10th), Rivers (12th), Freeman (12th), Bradford (13th), Schaub (13th), Cutler (12th), Tannehill (14th), Alex Smith (15th), Palmer (13th), and even Weeden (22nd).  In the first 8-9 rounds I'd rather just land the extra starting WR or committee RB, as those positions tend to dry up much earlier than QB.  That said, I can also see the appeal of taking a guy like Peyton in the 5th (as he's been there quite regularly), not take backup until the 12th or 13th and having an extra player at WR, RB or TE.  Either strategy could work if you pick the right players... 



#12 BassNBrew

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Posted 14 July 2013 - 02:42 PM

 

BB with a 20 man roster is tough! Do you do FAs?

FFPC does 26 without FAs. I like that format as you get what you get, so to speak. :)

 

No FAs in MFL10s... pretty tough.

 

I was wondering about the question of 2QBs with one taken earlier or 3QBs taken late.  I quickly looked at the numbers in 2012 and, though there is nothing scientific or precise about this exercise here's what I found with a very quick look:

 

In the MFL 10 format here are the starting QB scores the following combinations would have yielded:

 

Brees and Luck: 416.8

Rodgers and Romo: 415.5

Peyton and Roethlisberger: 386.1

Cam and Eli: 384.7

Ryan and Eli: 379.3

 

Dalton, Freeman, Flacco: 389.1

Dalton, Roethlisberger, Schaub: 381

Freeman, Schaub, Bradford: 378.3

Bradford, Palmer, Rivers: 360.8

Weeden, Tannehill, Ponder: 315.1

 

Not sure that this means much, but it does seem like unless you're landing a truly elite QB, you can do just fine waiting on QB and picking up three guys in the QB12-24 range.  That is, as long as you don't pick three stinkers.  This year I feel pretty good about platooning three of Dalton (ADP in the 10th), Flacco (11th), Roethlisberger (10th), Rivers (12th), Freeman (12th), Bradford (13th), Schaub (13th), Cutler (12th), Tannehill (14th), Alex Smith (15th), Palmer (13th), and even Weeden (22nd).  In the first 8-9 rounds I'd rather just land the extra starting WR or committee RB, as those positions tend to dry up much earlier than QB.  That said, I can also see the appeal of taking a guy like Peyton in the 5th (as he's been there quite regularly), not take backup until the 12th or 13th and having an extra player at WR, RB or TE.  Either strategy could work if you pick the right players... 

 

 

Run the numbers for Brees/Rodgers paired with the guys in your second group.  If you go stud at QB, you generally will be fine waiting until 20+ QBs go off the board before drafting a second.

 

Using your example, my opinion is that

 

QB 1st + QB 22nd + WR/RB 10th + WR/RB 13th + WR/RB 15th > WR/RB 1st + WR/RB 22nd + QB 10th + QB 13th + QB 15th in a bb format.



#13 plastik

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Posted 14 July 2013 - 05:13 PM

 

 

BB with a 20 man roster is tough! Do you do FAs?

FFPC does 26 without FAs. I like that format as you get what you get, so to speak. :)

 

No FAs in MFL10s... pretty tough.

 

I was wondering about the question of 2QBs with one taken earlier or 3QBs taken late.  I quickly looked at the numbers in 2012 and, though there is nothing scientific or precise about this exercise here's what I found with a very quick look:

 

In the MFL 10 format here are the starting QB scores the following combinations would have yielded:

 

Brees and Luck: 416.8

Rodgers and Romo: 415.5

Peyton and Roethlisberger: 386.1

Cam and Eli: 384.7

Ryan and Eli: 379.3

 

Dalton, Freeman, Flacco: 389.1

Dalton, Roethlisberger, Schaub: 381

Freeman, Schaub, Bradford: 378.3

Bradford, Palmer, Rivers: 360.8

Weeden, Tannehill, Ponder: 315.1

 

Not sure that this means much, but it does seem like unless you're landing a truly elite QB, you can do just fine waiting on QB and picking up three guys in the QB12-24 range.  That is, as long as you don't pick three stinkers.  This year I feel pretty good about platooning three of Dalton (ADP in the 10th), Flacco (11th), Roethlisberger (10th), Rivers (12th), Freeman (12th), Bradford (13th), Schaub (13th), Cutler (12th), Tannehill (14th), Alex Smith (15th), Palmer (13th), and even Weeden (22nd).  In the first 8-9 rounds I'd rather just land the extra starting WR or committee RB, as those positions tend to dry up much earlier than QB.  That said, I can also see the appeal of taking a guy like Peyton in the 5th (as he's been there quite regularly), not take backup until the 12th or 13th and having an extra player at WR, RB or TE.  Either strategy could work if you pick the right players... 

 

 

Run the numbers for Brees/Rodgers paired with the guys in your second group.  If you go stud at QB, you generally will be fine waiting until 20+ QBs go off the board before drafting a second.

 

Using your example, my opinion is that

 

QB 1st + QB 22nd + WR/RB 10th + WR/RB 13th + WR/RB 15th > WR/RB 1st + WR/RB 22nd + QB 10th + QB 13th + QB 15th in a bb format.

 

I was just winging those combos before, so I'll do these with actual ADP from 2012.  According to MFL, QB22 was Locker (who got injured), after him were Wilson (who's situation was a bit odd do to his being a rookie) and Alex Smith (who didn't play a full season) so I'll do this for two guys, Wilson and Sam Bradford who was next up at QB25.

 

Rodgers (ADP of QB1) and Wilson (QB23): 416.6

Brees (QB3) and Wilson (QB23): 428.5

Rodgers (QB1) and Bradford (QB25): 396.9

Brees (QB3) and Bradford: 403.6

 

Wilson's week 15 game (41.4 points) really boosted the scores here, and I'd say that he would definitely be considered a 'hit' on a backup.  If you 'missed', say drafting Locker, these would be the results:

 

Rodgers (QB1) and Locker (QB22): 393.1

Brees (QB3) and Locker (QB22): 376.4 (this included a zero during Brees' week 4 bye)

 

And a few more 3 QB combos using ADP:

 

Flacco (QB17), Freeman (QB18) and Bradford (QB25): 401.9

Dalton (QB21), Fitzpatrick (QB21), Wilson (QB23): 388.1

Luck (QB16), Dalton (QB21), and Wilson (QB23): 407.7

 

These and the ones I ran above (in my previous post) are more or less random (I just generally picks guys in that range I might have considered).  If you picked poorly (like the Weeden, Tannehill, Ponder combo above) you'd surely be out of luck.  But if you picked well I think you'd be OK with the 3QB combo (as in the case of Flacco, Freeman, Bradford or Luck, Dalton, Wilson).  Honestly, either strategy requires you to 'pick the right players' to succeed, but I feel pretty certain that if you pick the right players with the 3QB strategy, you can be better off by going RB, WR, or QB early. I'd love to do some comparisons on that front, but that would simply require more time than I have and I'm no math whiz.  I've already tried both strategies on MFL10s, for example, drafting Cam (QB3)/Weeden (QB27) and  Eli (QB14)/Culter (QB21)/Weeden (QB29) in two of my leagues. 


Edited by plastik, 14 July 2013 - 05:15 PM.


#14 Long Ball Larry

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 05:35 AM

 

 

 
I've also noticed that this year more than most, there is a crazy early run in RBs.

Interesting. When, how long, and how deep do the runs go?

Through 3 Rds, 3QBs, 2 TEs, 8 WRs, 23 RBs.

I know each raft is different, but both of these drafts have been very similar.

 

 

Are the RB's all starters or are we talking handcuffs there too (like a Tate)?

 

Do handcuffs seem to be of greater or lesser value in these leagues?


 

As most are aware, I'm as dumb as a doorknob. 

 


#15 pizzatyme

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 05:45 PM

 

 

 

 
I've also noticed that this year more than most, there is a crazy early run in RBs.

Interesting. When, how long, and how deep do the runs go?

Through 3 Rds, 3QBs, 2 TEs, 8 WRs, 23 RBs.

I know each raft is different, but both of these drafts have been very similar.

 

 

Are the RB's all starters or are we talking handcuffs there too (like a Tate)?

 

Do handcuffs seem to be of greater or lesser value in these leagues?

 

It depends on the draft. Most of the time, handcuffs aren't reached for, so you can get yours. Although, I recall my $750 FFPC DM in Vegas last year and a highly respected player who owns their own site took Ben Tate in the 5th rd on the news that Foster was banged up with the knee.

 

In a recent FFPC Satellite I was in Leshoure went in the 5th and Vereen went in the 6th. HTH


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#16 pizzatyme

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 05:47 PM

As for QB tandems, I recently took P. Manning in the 4.12 slot and then nabbed Roethlisberger @12.12 as the 21st QB.


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#17 NateDawg

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 06:36 PM

Does everyone take 2 PKs and 2 Ds in a best-ball total points league? Or is there an advantage to having 2 extra position players to produce a few more points possibly and ignore the PK & D on one week?



#18 pizzatyme

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 07:06 PM

Does everyone take 2 PKs and 2 Ds in a best-ball total points league? Or is there an advantage to having 2 extra position players to
produce a few more points possibly and ignore the PK & D on one week?


I can only speak for the FFPC drafts I've been a part of over the years. These are 26 roster spots. Anyway, every team has a minimum of 2 K/Def Teams. Most owners opt for 3 of each. Depending on scoring rules, these positions are every bit as important a QB based on VBD.
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#19 Uruk-Hai

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:01 AM

Does everyone take 2 PKs and 2 Ds in a best-ball total points league? Or is there an advantage to having 2 extra position players to produce a few more points possibly and ignore the PK & D on one week?

I only play best-ball in survivor leagues so it's a little different than total points leagues, but I roster at least 2 of each. In survivor, getting a zero out of a spot one week can kill you.



#20 pizzatyme

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 05:23 PM

In a recent draft, I landed the 3/21 QB combo of P. Manning & Big Ben. Picks 4.12 & 12.12 respectively.

I can live with that. :)
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#21 plastik

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 07:46 PM

Does everyone take 2 PKs and 2 Ds in a best-ball total points league? Or is there an advantage to having 2 extra position players to produce a few more points possibly and ignore the PK & D on one week?

 

In the MFL 10s, which are best ball and short rosters at 20 players, most teams take 2/2, but there are always 2-4 guys that only take one kicker.  Typically kickers are taken the last two rounds, so I'm not sure the guys you're drafting there will make a huge difference most of the time.  I one league I've done I did opt for only one kicker when Kerley was still there in the 20th round.  For me, I guess the answer is that if you pick the right guys either strategy works.  Though taking one kicker is inherently more risky as you're probably not going to be hurt much by not having a RB6 or WR7, but if your kicker tanks or gets injured you could be facing a 8-10 point deficit per week (that's about what the top12 Ks average in MFL10s).



#22 plastik

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 08:01 PM

In a recent draft, I landed the 3/21 QB combo of P. Manning & Big Ben. Picks 4.12 & 12.12 respectively.

I can live with that. :)

 

Manning and Big Ben in 2012: 386.1

 

I just landed Dalton and Flacco at the 11.12/12.01 in one league.  Likely to pick one more QB in the 18th-20th rounds.  I took Hakeem Nicks and Mike Wallace at the 4/5 turn where I could have selected the QB3 (Cam, Kaep, and Peyton went mid 5th round)

 

Dalton and Flacco in 2012: 331.2 (Adjusted: 349.7)

 

Dalton and Flacco had the same bye week last year, so I adjusted their total by adding Dalton's weekly average (18.5 points).  I expect modest improvement for both Manning and Dalton this year, about the same from Flacco, and a bit of a regression from Big Ben.  I'm not sure anything conclusive can be drawn from this, but my intuition tells me that if I pick right at QB while waiting until after the 10th, I can field significantly better enough RB and WR squads to make what I lose (if anything) at QB negligible.  

 

If you don't mind sharing, Pizzatyme, what do your top-3 RBs, WRs, and top 2 TEs look like? 


Edited by plastik, 16 July 2013 - 08:03 PM.


#23 BassNBrew

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 09:01 PM

 

 

 

BB with a 20 man roster is tough! Do you do FAs?

FFPC does 26 without FAs. I like that format as you get what you get, so to speak. :)

 

No FAs in MFL10s... pretty tough.

 

I was wondering about the question of 2QBs with one taken earlier or 3QBs taken late.  I quickly looked at the numbers in 2012 and, though there is nothing scientific or precise about this exercise here's what I found with a very quick look:

 

In the MFL 10 format here are the starting QB scores the following combinations would have yielded:

 

Brees and Luck: 416.8

Rodgers and Romo: 415.5

Peyton and Roethlisberger: 386.1

Cam and Eli: 384.7

Ryan and Eli: 379.3

 

Dalton, Freeman, Flacco: 389.1

Dalton, Roethlisberger, Schaub: 381

Freeman, Schaub, Bradford: 378.3

Bradford, Palmer, Rivers: 360.8

Weeden, Tannehill, Ponder: 315.1

 

Not sure that this means much, but it does seem like unless you're landing a truly elite QB, you can do just fine waiting on QB and picking up three guys in the QB12-24 range.  That is, as long as you don't pick three stinkers.  This year I feel pretty good about platooning three of Dalton (ADP in the 10th), Flacco (11th), Roethlisberger (10th), Rivers (12th), Freeman (12th), Bradford (13th), Schaub (13th), Cutler (12th), Tannehill (14th), Alex Smith (15th), Palmer (13th), and even Weeden (22nd).  In the first 8-9 rounds I'd rather just land the extra starting WR or committee RB, as those positions tend to dry up much earlier than QB.  That said, I can also see the appeal of taking a guy like Peyton in the 5th (as he's been there quite regularly), not take backup until the 12th or 13th and having an extra player at WR, RB or TE.  Either strategy could work if you pick the right players... 

 

 

Run the numbers for Brees/Rodgers paired with the guys in your second group.  If you go stud at QB, you generally will be fine waiting until 20+ QBs go off the board before drafting a second.

 

Using your example, my opinion is that

 

QB 1st + QB 22nd + WR/RB 10th + WR/RB 13th + WR/RB 15th > WR/RB 1st + WR/RB 22nd + QB 10th + QB 13th + QB 15th in a bb format.

 

I was just winging those combos before, so I'll do these with actual ADP from 2012.  According to MFL, QB22 was Locker (who got injured), after him were Wilson (who's situation was a bit odd do to his being a rookie) and Alex Smith (who didn't play a full season) so I'll do this for two guys, Wilson and Sam Bradford who was next up at QB25.

 

Rodgers (ADP of QB1) and Wilson (QB23): 416.6

Brees (QB3) and Wilson (QB23): 428.5

Rodgers (QB1) and Bradford (QB25): 396.9

Brees (QB3) and Bradford: 403.6

 

Wilson's week 15 game (41.4 points) really boosted the scores here, and I'd say that he would definitely be considered a 'hit' on a backup.  If you 'missed', say drafting Locker, these would be the results:

 

Rodgers (QB1) and Locker (QB22): 393.1

Brees (QB3) and Locker (QB22): 376.4 (this included a zero during Brees' week 4 bye)

 

And a few more 3 QB combos using ADP:

 

Flacco (QB17), Freeman (QB18) and Bradford (QB25): 401.9

Dalton (QB21), Fitzpatrick (QB21), Wilson (QB23): 388.1

Luck (QB16), Dalton (QB21), and Wilson (QB23): 407.7

 

These and the ones I ran above (in my previous post) are more or less random (I just generally picks guys in that range I might have considered).  If you picked poorly (like the Weeden, Tannehill, Ponder combo above) you'd surely be out of luck.  But if you picked well I think you'd be OK with the 3QB combo (as in the case of Flacco, Freeman, Bradford or Luck, Dalton, Wilson).  Honestly, either strategy requires you to 'pick the right players' to succeed, but I feel pretty certain that if you pick the right players with the 3QB strategy, you can be better off by going RB, WR, or QB early. I'd love to do some comparisons on that front, but that would simply require more time than I have and I'm no math whiz.  I've already tried both strategies on MFL10s, for example, drafting Cam (QB3)/Weeden (QB27) and  Eli (QB14)/Culter (QB21)/Weeden (QB29) in two of my leagues. 

 

 

I think between your two posts you pretty much proved my point.  If you take a stud like Rodgers/Brees, there's marginally benefit at best taking a mid-tier QB. 

 

Rodgers and a pile of dung out points Eli/Ryan.

 

3 piles of dung can even out point Eli/Ryan.

 

What you need in best ball is lots of variable bullets or one stud.  2 solid performers isn't the best formula. 



#24 ZWK

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 09:05 PM

I've done some analysis of best ball leagues.

 

A second kicker is worth about 40 fpts to your team, on average, assuming your PK1 plays the whole season (a bit less if you have a top PK1).  Your second kicker is not just a fill-in for bye weeks or injuries - he'll start for you any time that he has a better week than your first kicker, which will probably be more than 1/3 of the games (since the differences between kickers aren't huge, and there is a lot of week-to-week variability).

 

A second defense is worth a bit more than that (although you don't have to worry about the possibility of your defense being out with an injury).  A third defense is worth more than a 3rd kicker, unless one of your first two kickers is out.

 

For QBs, the quality of your top QB is very important.  If you have 2 QBs, then each additional fantasy point scored by your top scoring QB translates into nearly 0.9 additional fpts for your team.  If you have an elite QB1, then your second QB isn't that important (assuming that your QB1 doesn't miss any games) - he'll get you an extra 25 fpts if he's a low-end QB, up to a maximum of 80 extra fpts if your second QB is another elite QB (Brees + Rodgers = Rodgers + 80 fpts).  (Solid backups are closer to the 25 fpt end of the spectrum - a Flacco-type won't crack your lineup very often if he's behind a Rodgers-type.)  If you draft three QB2 types, then you'll generally score about 30 fpts more than if you drafted two QB2 types (assuming that your QBs all play most of the season).



#25 plastik

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 06:36 AM

 

 

 

 

BB with a 20 man roster is tough! Do you do FAs?

FFPC does 26 without FAs. I like that format as you get what you get, so to speak. :)

 

No FAs in MFL10s... pretty tough.

 

I was wondering about the question of 2QBs with one taken earlier or 3QBs taken late.  I quickly looked at the numbers in 2012 and, though there is nothing scientific or precise about this exercise here's what I found with a very quick look:

 

In the MFL 10 format here are the starting QB scores the following combinations would have yielded:

 

Brees and Luck: 416.8

Rodgers and Romo: 415.5

Peyton and Roethlisberger: 386.1

Cam and Eli: 384.7

Ryan and Eli: 379.3

 

Dalton, Freeman, Flacco: 389.1

Dalton, Roethlisberger, Schaub: 381

Freeman, Schaub, Bradford: 378.3

Bradford, Palmer, Rivers: 360.8

Weeden, Tannehill, Ponder: 315.1

 

Not sure that this means much, but it does seem like unless you're landing a truly elite QB, you can do just fine waiting on QB and picking up three guys in the QB12-24 range.  That is, as long as you don't pick three stinkers.  This year I feel pretty good about platooning three of Dalton (ADP in the 10th), Flacco (11th), Roethlisberger (10th), Rivers (12th), Freeman (12th), Bradford (13th), Schaub (13th), Cutler (12th), Tannehill (14th), Alex Smith (15th), Palmer (13th), and even Weeden (22nd).  In the first 8-9 rounds I'd rather just land the extra starting WR or committee RB, as those positions tend to dry up much earlier than QB.  That said, I can also see the appeal of taking a guy like Peyton in the 5th (as he's been there quite regularly), not take backup until the 12th or 13th and having an extra player at WR, RB or TE.  Either strategy could work if you pick the right players... 

 

 

Run the numbers for Brees/Rodgers paired with the guys in your second group.  If you go stud at QB, you generally will be fine waiting until 20+ QBs go off the board before drafting a second.

 

Using your example, my opinion is that

 

QB 1st + QB 22nd + WR/RB 10th + WR/RB 13th + WR/RB 15th > WR/RB 1st + WR/RB 22nd + QB 10th + QB 13th + QB 15th in a bb format.

 

I was just winging those combos before, so I'll do these with actual ADP from 2012.  According to MFL, QB22 was Locker (who got injured), after him were Wilson (who's situation was a bit odd do to his being a rookie) and Alex Smith (who didn't play a full season) so I'll do this for two guys, Wilson and Sam Bradford who was next up at QB25.

 

Rodgers (ADP of QB1) and Wilson (QB23): 416.6

Brees (QB3) and Wilson (QB23): 428.5

Rodgers (QB1) and Bradford (QB25): 396.9

Brees (QB3) and Bradford: 403.6

 

Wilson's week 15 game (41.4 points) really boosted the scores here, and I'd say that he would definitely be considered a 'hit' on a backup.  If you 'missed', say drafting Locker, these would be the results:

 

Rodgers (QB1) and Locker (QB22): 393.1

Brees (QB3) and Locker (QB22): 376.4 (this included a zero during Brees' week 4 bye)

 

And a few more 3 QB combos using ADP:

 

Flacco (QB17), Freeman (QB18) and Bradford (QB25): 401.9

Dalton (QB21), Fitzpatrick (QB21), Wilson (QB23): 388.1

Luck (QB16), Dalton (QB21), and Wilson (QB23): 407.7

 

These and the ones I ran above (in my previous post) are more or less random (I just generally picks guys in that range I might have considered).  If you picked poorly (like the Weeden, Tannehill, Ponder combo above) you'd surely be out of luck.  But if you picked well I think you'd be OK with the 3QB combo (as in the case of Flacco, Freeman, Bradford or Luck, Dalton, Wilson).  Honestly, either strategy requires you to 'pick the right players' to succeed, but I feel pretty certain that if you pick the right players with the 3QB strategy, you can be better off by going RB, WR, or QB early. I'd love to do some comparisons on that front, but that would simply require more time than I have and I'm no math whiz.  I've already tried both strategies on MFL10s, for example, drafting Cam (QB3)/Weeden (QB27) and  Eli (QB14)/Culter (QB21)/Weeden (QB29) in two of my leagues. 

 

 

I think between your two posts you pretty much proved my point.  If you take a stud like Rodgers/Brees, there's marginally benefit at best taking a mid-tier QB. 

 

Rodgers and a pile of dung out points Eli/Ryan.

 

3 piles of dung can even out point Eli/Ryan.

 

What you need in best ball is lots of variable bullets or one stud.  2 solid performers isn't the best formula. 

 

 

Not so sure about that.  As you can see above, Rodgers/Locker (394.1) wasn't far off from Ryan/Eli (379.3).  In this case that's only a 4% difference in scoring.  Rodgers ADP in 2012 (according to MFL) was between 1.03 and 1.04.  I'd much have rather had a RB or WR at that point and wait on a QB, as there seems to be a higher point differential between a squad of WRs with Calvin Johnson than some late round WRs in his place, for example, than between a Rodgers led QB squad and whatever QB platoon you'd take later.

 

Of course, Rodgers isn't going in the 1st in MFL 10s this year, he's usually going in the late 2nd.  Even still, if we only consider the picks in question (which I admit isn't the best way to look at this, but it is the simplest) I'd rather take a guy like VJax (253.4 points in 2012) in the 2nd add QBs late than take Rodgers in the 2nd and a a WR like Jeffrey (MFL projects 171) or Hartline (MFL projects 183) in the 11th.  If your starters at other positions remain the same and you simply swap those picks (and assume pairing the late QB with two others), I'd rather have the additional top WR over the later round guy (likely 30-40% scoring increase) than have the elite QB over a decent late round platoon (only a 5-10% differential if you pick well).  Again, I know this isn't quite fair as you'd really have to compare the scoring differential of the entire squad of WRs to the entire squad of QBs, but I just don't have time to do that right now. 






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