Steve Smith in Dynasty - Too Old To Help? (1 Viewer)

Some fantasy owners make the mistake of divesting their team of players prematurely on the backside of thirty. I did with Tony Gonzales 3 years ago in exchange for a 3rd round rookie pick.

Not again with Steve Smith.

What other older players do you know of that delivered good fantasy production beyond your expectations?

In 2005, Joey Galloway surprised me with a season that carried me to a championship. He was 34.

Who do you see cheating father time for great twilight seasons?

Well, seeing that I have Steve Smith and Peyton Manning on my team, and until last year I had Gonzo, I am a fan of the old, productive vets. I wouldn't mind riding Stephen Jackson for a year or two.

It depends on the price of course. But when one compares the prospect of a 3rd round dynasty pick to a known starter? Your chances of landing a starter from the 3rd round of a dynasty draft are slim compared to what you know a veteran is capable of doing. Even if you do hit on the pick it will likely take some time for them to become starting quality.

The trick is to not be too slow with the hook if the older guy stops performing and to move on. Ideally you should have another player ready to take your veterans place. A seamless transition would be your younger player starts outperforming the vet so you have to bench the veteran because of that but you now have good match up/back up options.

It does not always work out like that. Relying on a veteran player can leave you a hole in your roster if you do not have someone ready to take their spot. If that is the price you could likely patch up your roster with veteran players by trading away your 3rd round picks every season. I like your chances with those players better than I like your chances with those picks. One season of above replacement value performance is more than you can hope for most of all teams 3rd round picks.

Where should the value for a player like Steve Smith, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore be in terms of draft picks?

With each of these players I am mainly valuing them for this season. With an outside chance they will still be productive in 2014 as well. I am not willing to pay much anything at all in terms of that possible value in 2014 because there is much risk of that not happening based on historical evidence. Each player and each situation is different. But all 3 of these players are at age landmarks where it is well known that even the best players show some decline. So what I mean by this is I will normally do a 3 year projection of all players in a trade when deciding what their value will be. But for a player at these landmarks I have to discount for age 31 RB. The times a RB has had a good season at this age having a good season are few, Curtis Martin, Emmit Smith, there may be a few others, that's it. so I am not going to allocate much value to that possibility. And nothing for 2015 when they will be 32.

Similarly for Smith although I think it is more likely for a WR to have a productive season at age 35-36 than it is for a RB at 32. So Smith I could see giving a little more value as a future prospect to than the RB. Also the Panthers have not made a big enough investment at the WR for them to consider themselves ready to move on from Smith. I think he is still in their plans for 2014. Maybe they will get a replacement for him by then. I am not seeing that replacement on the team right now.

All 3 of these players are more likely to have a good season in 2013 than most of 3rd round dynasty picks and most 2nd round dynasty picks, as well as some of the bust 1st round picks. At the same time owners will be wary of giving up a 2nd or 1st round pick for an older player because while a 2nd round dynasty pick may take awhile to develop, they could develop into a player maybe not quite as good as these players were in their prime, but good enough to start for a few seasons for you team, which has more value for you long term than the 1 year rented veteran will. So for players like these the 2nd round dynasty pick seems like more reasonable value. Not every owner will be willing to pay that.

Your team would also need to be pretty stacked at a position to not need one of these players in 2013 to help you win. I think usually you will decide to keep the veteran because you cannot get reasonable value in return for them. Which is actually closer to 1st round pick value, but most would not be willing to pay that price for 1-2 years of a player, because their chances of landing a good player in the 1st round of a rookie draft is much, much higher than the 2nd or 3rd rounds. So this tends to create a situation where the 2 parties will have a hard time agreeing on the value of the player, in terms of draft picks.

The main value a 3rd round pick has to me if for trade bait to try to move up in the draft or sometimes seal a player for player deal. A 2nd round pick could lead to a starter but most of the folks I have played with do a pretty good job of drafting the most obviously good dynasty players and there are not many of those left by the 2nd round.

pghrob said:

Some fantasy owners make the mistake of divesting their team of players prematurely on the backside of thirty. I did with Tony Gonzales 3 years ago in exchange for a 3rd round rookie pick.

Not again with Steve Smith.

What other older players do you know of that delivered good fantasy production beyond your expectations?

In 2005, Joey Galloway surprised me with a season that carried me to a championship. He was 34.

Who do you see cheating father time for great twilight seasons?

Click to expand...

If you look at a list of former top WR's and their age when they declined, there is some good information that can help determine when to buy or sell.

Jerry Rice (41)

Terrell Owens (37)

Isaac Bruce (36)

Derrick Mason (36)

Hines Ward (34)

Donald Driver (34)

Marvin Harrison (34)

Randy Moss (32)

Torry Holt (32)

The last three guys had shorter careers, and I don't think it's coincidence that they are speed guys and the rest were more possession type receivers. Now this is just a small sample of the top producing WRs, but it appears that if your game relies on speed, you will decline faster. Obviously things like injury, attitude, QB etc. will affect the results.

What I conclude from this is that guys like Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Andre Johnson have anywhere from 1-3 productive years left. Smith relies on speed a bit, so he may break down sooner, as in this year. Wayne has already lasted to age 35 because he is more of a possession WR, but I wouldn't expect much after this year. I think Roddy White and Andre Johnson may have 2-3 good years left in them.

I think it's safe to give a good piece, like a 1st rounder and a young player, for guys like Andre and Roddy in dynasty because there is a good chance you will get a few years out of them. I would only buy Wayne or Smith this year if I felt it was the missing link to a championship run. Even then I would only pay a good 2nd rounder, maybe a late 1st.

If you don't have a shot at the playoffs by mid season, I would look to move either Wayne or Smith to a team making a run. I remember Isaac Bruce was traded for a decent 2nd rounder at the trade deadline a few years back. It worked out for both teams, and it was his last productive season.

jmo87usc said:

pghrob said:

Some fantasy owners make the mistake of divesting their team of players prematurely on the backside of thirty. I did with Tony Gonzales 3 years ago in exchange for a 3rd round rookie pick.

Not again with Steve Smith.

What other older players do you know of that delivered good fantasy production beyond your expectations?

In 2005, Joey Galloway surprised me with a season that carried me to a championship. He was 34.

Who do you see cheating father time for great twilight seasons?

Click to expand...

If you look at a list of former top WR's and their age when they declined, there is some good information that can help determine when to buy or sell.

Jerry Rice (41)

Terrell Owens (37)

Isaac Bruce (36)

Derrick Mason (36)

Hines Ward (34)

Donald Driver (34)

Marvin Harrison (34)

Randy Moss (32)

Torry Holt (32)

The last three guys had shorter careers, and I don't think it's coincidence that they are speed guys and the rest were more possession type receivers. Now this is just a small sample of the top producing WRs, but it appears that if your game relies on speed, you will decline faster. Obviously things like injury, attitude, QB etc. will affect the results.

What I conclude from this is that guys like Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Andre Johnson have anywhere from 1-3 productive years left. Smith relies on speed a bit, so he may break down sooner, as in this year. Wayne has already lasted to age 35 because he is more of a possession WR, but I wouldn't expect much after this year. I think Roddy White and Andre Johnson may have 2-3 good years left in them.

I think it's safe to give a good piece, like a 1st rounder and a young player, for guys like Andre and Roddy in dynasty because there is a good chance you will get a few years out of them. I would only buy Wayne or Smith this year if I felt it was the missing link to a championship run. Even then I would only pay a good 2nd rounder, maybe a late 1st.

If you don't have a shot at the playoffs by mid season, I would look to move either Wayne or Smith to a team making a run. I remember Isaac Bruce was traded for a decent 2nd rounder at the trade deadline a few years back. It worked out for both teams, and it was his last productive season.

Click to expand...

Very well thought-out.

I think that is it, in a nutshell. A Terrell Owens type (Like Andre Johnson) can motor for a long time. A speed guy can't however, because the legs are always the first to go. Even the guys that we think of as highly dedicated to staying in shape simply reach a point where they can't run (literally) with the 24 year olds and match their speed, strength, and reflexes. There are always exceptions, but we can name them on one hand and the rule applies to the VAST majority.

So when you have a guy like Rice who was the complete package in every aspect, it makes sense that he lasts. Guys like AJ, White, Wayne, and Fitz....same story. They will all be able to compete highly despite break-neck speed. Guys like Wallace, Smith, and DeSean Jackson...its almost a given that they won't.

With that being said, I would give SMith a better chance than DJAX or Wallace, just simply because he has a unique intangible in him that drives him. He could be a Derrick Mason probably.

TO the original question: He's not too old to help if you are in a competitive window but he is also probably a guy that you just keep and ride into the sunset with at this point. Like Wayne and Roddy, he just can't command his real value right now and so he's better off helping you than going against you, considering what you get for him.

Reggie Wayne seems quite likely to be an important part of a fantasy team again.

I am in the window. I gave up d. Moore , a 2014 2nd, and a 2014 4th for Smith. I had 4 2014 1st rounders at the time. I like smith to put produce Moore by a decent margin this year. After that I think my returns will quickly dry up