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2014 Team/Player Spotlight -- Philadelphia Eagles (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Philadelphia Eagles

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
Recommended Players to Discuss (Player Page links provided):

QB Nick Foles

WR Riley Cooper

WR Jordan Matthews

WR Jeremy Maclin

RB LeSean McCoy

RB Darren Sproles

TE Zach Ertz

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
  • FBG Projections
 
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Jason! Good to see from you.

As for the Eagles, theres a lot to expect this year. Second season in Chip's offense and first full season of Nick Foles. I expect Foles to have a top 5 season. 4500-30-8 seems reasonable.

McCoy will get his. No reason to not expect 1400 rushing. Receiving might dip a bit with Sproles here.

Wide receiver is a big question mark. The Djax move could be ok or it could be a disaster. Maclin and Cooper have a lot to do with how that works out. Matthews and Huff are the future but I dont expect too much this year.

Ertz is going to be a monster this year. I feel a lot of the targets Djax had are going to cone his way along with natural progression in his 2nd season. Ive said I see him as a top 3 TE this year. Im not backing away from it.

Defense should improve simply by being more comfortable in the system. Early last season was brutal. First 5 games averaged 500+ yards. Last 11 were much better. Hopefully they are more in the middle of the pack this season instead of bottom third.

 
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One thing I think people are doing is overrating Foles.

As someone who watched every snap of his last year, while the numbers seem astonishing, it's important to remember how many situations worked out perfectly for him. There were at least 15 to 20 throws that leaving his hands were sure fire turnovers, but either ended up incomplete or, in a startling number of cases, the receiver won the contested jump ball. Does that mean Foles is going to throw 20 interceptions this year? Of course not. But there's no doubt in my mind he'll have 10-15 and that also means a commensurately fewer number of TD drives. On top of that, for all this talk of the potency of my Eagles offense, remember that it was a RUNNING TEAM.

The Eagles only threw the ball 508 times last year, 27th in the league. Unless you think Chip is going to dramatically increase the number of pass attempts called (without DeSean Jackson in the mix), it's next to impossible to project Foles as an elite fantasy QB1 UNLESS he once again has an otherworldly TD% rate. Without Jackson (who led the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns), I see almost no chance of that.

 
Jason Wood said:
One thing I think people are doing is overrating Foles.

As someone who watched every snap of his last year, while the numbers seem astonishing, it's important to remember how many situations worked out perfectly for him. There were at least 15 to 20 throws that leaving his hands were sure fire turnovers, but either ended up incomplete or, in a startling number of cases, the receiver won the contested jump ball. Does that mean Foles is going to throw 20 interceptions this year? Of course not. But there's no doubt in my mind he'll have 10-15 and that also means a commensurately fewer number of TD drives. On top of that, for all this talk of the potency of my Eagles offense, remember that it was a RUNNING TEAM.

The Eagles only threw the ball 508 times last year, 27th in the league. Unless you think Chip is going to dramatically increase the number of pass attempts called (without DeSean Jackson in the mix), it's next to impossible to project Foles as an elite fantasy QB1 UNLESS he once again has an otherworldly TD% rate. Without Jackson (who led the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns), I see almost no chance of that.
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I agree that Foles is going to throw between 10 - 15 INTs this year. But I also think that the deep ball won't be so prevailent as it was this year. Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff along with Maclin and Cooper plus Ertz and Celek make me think screens and short passes. 2 TE sets will be more common than they were at the beginning of the season last year. More of a traditional West Coast offense but at 200 mph. Shady and Sproles will be at the fore front though. With the way the OL is built this will still be a run team first. I suck at projections but here it goes

Foles: 4300 yrds passing, 37 TDs, 13 INTS

Cooper: 52 catches, 932 yrd/rec, 10 TDs

Maclin: 77 catches, 1152 yrd/rec, 11 TDs

Matthews: 38 catches, 678yrd/rec, 4 TDs

McCoy: 302 att, 1512 yrd, 8 TDs, 25 rec, 286 yrds, 1TDs

Sproles: 30 att, 175 yrd, 0 TDs, 58 rec, 556 yrds, 4 TDs

Zach Ertz: 52 rec, 657 yrds, 7 TDs

Butcher away

 
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CentralPA said:
Jason Wood said:
One thing I think people are doing is overrating Foles.

As someone who watched every snap of his last year, while the numbers seem astonishing, it's important to remember how many situations worked out perfectly for him. There were at least 15 to 20 throws that leaving his hands were sure fire turnovers, but either ended up incomplete or, in a startling number of cases, the receiver won the contested jump ball. Does that mean Foles is going to throw 20 interceptions this year? Of course not. But there's no doubt in my mind he'll have 10-15 and that also means a commensurately fewer number of TD drives. On top of that, for all this talk of the potency of my Eagles offense, remember that it was a RUNNING TEAM.

The Eagles only threw the ball 508 times last year, 27th in the league. Unless you think Chip is going to dramatically increase the number of pass attempts called (without DeSean Jackson in the mix), it's next to impossible to project Foles as an elite fantasy QB1 UNLESS he once again has an otherworldly TD% rate. Without Jackson (who led the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns), I see almost no chance of that.
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I agree that Foles is going to throw between 10 - 15 INTs this year. But I also think that the deep ball won't be so prevailent as it was this year. Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff along with Maclin and Cooper plus Ertz and Celek make me think screens and short passes. 2 TE sets will be more common than they were at the beginning of the season last year. More of a traditional West Coast offense but at 200 mph. Shady and Sproles will be at the fore front though. With the way the OL is built this will still be a run team first. I suck at projections but here it goes

Foles: 4300 yrds passing, 37 TDs, 13 INTS

Cooper: 52 catches, 932 yrd/rec, 10 TDs

Maclin: 77 catches, 1152 yrd/rec, 11 TDs

Matthews: 38 catches, 678yrd/rec, 4 TDs

McCoy: 302 att, 1512 yrd, 8 TDs, 25 rec, 286 yrds, 1TDs

Sproles: 30 att, 175 yrd, 0 TDs, 58 rec, 556 yrds, 4 TDs

Zach Ertz: 52 rec, 657 yrds, 7 TDs

Butcher away
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Seems a bit optimistic. For one, you have about 4200 yards among these 6 targets. Even if Foles hits 4300- Celek alone gets more than another 100 yards, let alone the rest of the roster.

I expect a bit less eficiency from Foles, and really don't think 4000-4200 yards is an unrealistic expectation. 37 TDs with this running game is probably a bit too high- I'd look for something more along the lines of 32 with 10 interceptions. That leaves Foles as a viable QB1, but probably not an elite fantasy QB.

I tend to think Cooper played about as well as he could last year. 50-55 receptions for 850 yards seems reasonable. Maclin for 80 and 1100 also feels right. The problem with predicting in Philly is that while the targets seem solid enough, there really are a lot of questions to be answered, and it's very difficult to actually parse those yards and receptions up. Maclin missed all of last year- nothing from 50/800 to 90/1400 would surprise me. Many of us expect Ertz to step up in a big way, but Celek is a quality TE in his own right, and it's not hard to imagine the two of them preventing each other from reaching fantasy TE1 status. Mathews looks like the real deal, but rookie WRs are tough to predict- will he be a depth player only in year one, adding just 30-40 catches, or will he be an everyday contributor and give us 60? Neither would be a surprise.

The Eagles offense will provide plenty of points, and plenty of fantasy worthy players, but outside of McCoy, it isn't likely to produce any real studs. Foles is a safe QB1 play, but not elite. Maclin should be an every week start as a WR2 or 3, but the rest is anyone's guess.

 
Nick Foles qb Phi/7 328 512 7.8 3994 28 12 64 4 256 2 337.3 LeSean McCoy rb Phi/7 288 4.8 1382 9 48 7.8 374 2 289.6 Darren Sproles rb Phi/7 72 4.7 338 2 52 8.9 463 3 162.1 Chris Polk wr Phi/7 56 4.5 252 3 4 7 28 0 54.0 Jeremy Maclin wr Phi/7 64 13.4 858 6 185.8 Riley Cooper wr Phi/7 56 15 840 7 182.0 Jordan Matthews wr Phi/7 36 13 468 2 94.8 Zach Ertz te Phi/7 40 13 520 4 136.0 Brent Celek te Phi/7 28 12.7 356 2 89.6

I like Nick Foles, but his ADP is a tad high for me at QB7. The loss of DJax will hurt his numbers. I expect his insanely high YPA and TD:INT ratio to come down from last year. And as Jason said, this is a run-first team. He simply won't have enough pass attempts to justify taking him that high. I've currently got him ranked as QB11 so he will not be on any of my rosters this season. I will probably have a wait on QB strategy again this year. If I do take a QB earlier in the draft, I prefer Griffin, Kaepernick, Newton, and Brady to Foles.

I see Sproles cutting into Shady's workload a bit this year, but not enough to stop me from ranking him in my top 4 RBs. I have Charles as my top dog, and then its a toss up between Forte, ADP, and Shady. Sproles is on the wrong side of 30, but the guy can still play. I think this fast paced offense is a great landing spot for him. He won't catch as many balls as he did in New Orleans, but I still see him being a solid RB3/Flex guy. His current ADP is RB34 and I have him ranked at that exact spot.

Not sure exactly what to make of the receiving corps just yet. I'm a big Maclin fan, but will he be fully recovered? Cooper was solid last year, but he just isn't the most talented WR. Fantasy owners will have to rely on him keeping up his high TD:Catch ratio. They will also have to put up with his inconsistency because he's not a high volume guy. There's a lot of buzz surrounding Matthews, but will the Eagles pass enough to make him fantasy relevant?

Ertz seems overrated to me with an ADP of TE11. I don't see him catching enough balls to justify that PPR ADP. Celek isn't going anywhere, and as mentioned a few times already, the eagles just don't pass the ball enough.

 
renesauz said:
CentralPA said:
Jason Wood said:
One thing I think people are doing is overrating Foles.

As someone who watched every snap of his last year, while the numbers seem astonishing, it's important to remember how many situations worked out perfectly for him. There were at least 15 to 20 throws that leaving his hands were sure fire turnovers, but either ended up incomplete or, in a startling number of cases, the receiver won the contested jump ball. Does that mean Foles is going to throw 20 interceptions this year? Of course not. But there's no doubt in my mind he'll have 10-15 and that also means a commensurately fewer number of TD drives. On top of that, for all this talk of the potency of my Eagles offense, remember that it was a RUNNING TEAM.

The Eagles only threw the ball 508 times last year, 27th in the league. Unless you think Chip is going to dramatically increase the number of pass attempts called (without DeSean Jackson in the mix), it's next to impossible to project Foles as an elite fantasy QB1 UNLESS he once again has an otherworldly TD% rate. Without Jackson (who led the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns), I see almost no chance of that.
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I agree that Foles is going to throw between 10 - 15 INTs this year. But I also think that the deep ball won't be so prevailent as it was this year. Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff along with Maclin and Cooper plus Ertz and Celek make me think screens and short passes. 2 TE sets will be more common than they were at the beginning of the season last year. More of a traditional West Coast offense but at 200 mph. Shady and Sproles will be at the fore front though. With the way the OL is built this will still be a run team first. I suck at projections but here it goes

Foles: 4300 yrds passing, 37 TDs, 13 INTS

Cooper: 52 catches, 932 yrd/rec, 10 TDs

Maclin: 77 catches, 1152 yrd/rec, 11 TDs

Matthews: 38 catches, 678yrd/rec, 4 TDs

McCoy: 302 att, 1512 yrd, 8 TDs, 25 rec, 286 yrds, 1TDs

Sproles: 30 att, 175 yrd, 0 TDs, 58 rec, 556 yrds, 4 TDs

Zach Ertz: 52 rec, 657 yrds, 7 TDs

Butcher away
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Seems a bit optimistic. For one, you have about 4200 yards among these 6 targets. Even if Foles hits 4300- Celek alone gets more than another 100 yards, let alone the rest of the roster.

I expect a bit less eficiency from Foles, and really don't think 4000-4200 yards is an unrealistic expectation. 37 TDs with this running game is probably a bit too high- I'd look for something more along the lines of 32 with 10 interceptions. That leaves Foles as a viable QB1, but probably not an elite fantasy QB.

I tend to think Cooper played about as well as he could last year. 50-55 receptions for 850 yards seems reasonable. Maclin for 80 and 1100 also feels right. The problem with predicting in Philly is that while the targets seem solid enough, there really are a lot of questions to be answered, and it's very difficult to actually parse those yards and receptions up. Maclin missed all of last year- nothing from 50/800 to 90/1400 would surprise me. Many of us expect Ertz to step up in a big way, but Celek is a quality TE in his own right, and it's not hard to imagine the two of them preventing each other from reaching fantasy TE1 status. Mathews looks like the real deal, but rookie WRs are tough to predict- will he be a depth player only in year one, adding just 30-40 catches, or will he be an everyday contributor and give us 60? Neither would be a surprise.

The Eagles offense will provide plenty of points, and plenty of fantasy worthy players, but outside of McCoy, it isn't likely to produce any real studs. Foles is a safe QB1 play, but not elite. Maclin should be an every week start as a WR2 or 3, but the rest is anyone's guess.
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From a fantasy perspective (which I guess I should've emphasised more) the only viable high end/elite caliber players are probably Foles and McCoy. But i could see Maclin, Cooper, and Ertz blowing up. Celek I did not include because I really don't think he'll have much of an impact because he is more useful staying in as blocker but he does have the pass catching ability and has shown in the past that he can be dangerous, but not enough to be a fantasy viable player.

Matthews is the biggest question mark. He could absolutely blow up and take the yards and TDs from someone like Cooper but right now he is the WR3 on the team. I can see him eventually becoming Pro Bowl caliber but right now Chip sees him as a slot guy, and I believe those are slot guys numbers. Maybe good roster depth but nothing more than a WR4/Flex guy at best this year.

 
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Full team projections don't contain only 6 receivers. Last season 12 players caught passes for Philly.

Sure, some of the WRs only had a few catches for a seemingly negligible yardage total but they add up

 
maf005 said:
Full team projections don't contain only 6 receivers. Last season 12 players caught passes for Philly.

Sure, some of the WRs only had a few catches for a seemingly negligible yardage total but they add up
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Agreed, and on our site all four projectors (myself included) project to your point.

For those wondering, here are my current Eagles projections:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myviewprojections-team.php?team=phi&projector=50&profile=0

Nick Foles QB 340 525 64.8 4065 7.74 29 12 35 150 1 328.3

Matt Barkley QB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0

Mark Sanchez QB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0

LeSean McCoy RB 295 1420 4.8 8 50 450 2 247.0

Chris Polk RB 50 200 4.0 1 5 25 0 28.5

Darren Sproles RB 50 250 5.0 1 50 500 2 93.0

Matthew Tucker RB 3 15 5.0 0 0 0 0 1.5

Jeremy Maclin WR 0 0 0 68 835 12.3 6 119.5

Riley Cooper WR 0 0 0 55 865 15.7 7 128.5

Jeff Maehl WR 0 0 0 1 15 15.0 0 1.5

Damaris Johnson WR 0 0 0 4 40 10.0 0 4.0

Jordan Matthews WR 0 0 0 33 450 13.6 4 69.0

Josh Huff WR 0 0 0 5 60 12.0 1 12.0

Zach Ertz TE 42 525 12.5 5 82.5

Brent Celek TE 25 285 11.4 2 40.5

 
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Jason Wood said:
maf005 said:
Full team projections don't contain only 6 receivers. Last season 12 players caught passes for Philly.

Sure, some of the WRs only had a few catches for a seemingly negligible yardage total but they add up
Click to expand...
Agreed, and on our site all four projectors (myself included) project to your point.

For those wondering, here are my current Eagles projections:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myviewprojections-team.php?team=phi&projector=50&profile=0

Nick Foles QB 340 525 64.8 4065 7.74 29 12 35 150 1 328.3

Matt Barkley QB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0

Mark Sanchez QB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0



LeSean McCoy RB 295 1420 4.8 8 50 450 2 247.0

Chris Polk RB 50 200 4.0 1 5 25 0 28.5

Darren Sproles RB 50 250 5.0 1 50 500 2 93.0

Matthew Tucker RB 3 15 5.0 0 0 0 0 1.5



Jeremy Maclin WR 0 0 0 68 835 12.3 6 119.5

Riley Cooper WR 0 0 0 55 865 15.7 7 128.5

Jeff Maehl WR 0 0 0 1 15 15.0 0 1.5

Damaris Johnson WR 0 0 0 4 40 10.0 0 4.0

Jordan Matthews WR 0 0 0 33 450 13.6 4 69.0

Josh Huff WR 0 0 0 5 60 12.0 1 12.0



Zach Ertz TE 42 525 12.5 5 82.5

Brent Celek TE 25 285 11.4 2 40.5
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Pretty much my thinking. You're a little lighter on Foles and a lot lighter on Ertz than I am.

 
The great experiment of 2013 was a smashing success. Moreso than I think many people were even thinking at a top level. Considering that by the end of the 2013 season, the Eagles weren’t pinning their hopes on a fading QB of yesterday in Mike Vick, but now their QB of tomorrow, Nick Foles who had an unexpected star making turn in 2013. While there were some early bumps in the road, Chip Kelly was able realize success ultimately by relying on his rushing attack based offense to methodically and quickly move the ball downfield with consistency. Having perhaps the best RB in the game in LeSean McCoy proved to be a dynamic combination and McCoy came through with his best season as a pro. With 366 touches, he also eclipsed his previous career high by 39 touches. And with defenses pressed close to the LOS, Nick Foles proved more than capable in being an efficient and prolific downfield thrower via an absurd 42.3% completion rate on balls thrown 21+ yards downfield.

It’s a testament to the forward thinking nature of Chip Kelly that despite what was largely seen as a unexpected and unabashed success, the Eagles not only didn’t stand pat, they released their 2nd biggest playmaker in Desean Jackson. Figuring that Jeremy Maclin could replace Jackson at a fraction of the cost, it speaks to perhaps a new era in the NFL that shows that NFL franchises may be willing to eat salary cap room to ensure that the players on any specific years roster are the best fit for the organizational plan. With the salary cap no longer in stagnation mode, Jackson became the first high profile player coming off a career year to be jettisoned without compensation. With the acquisition of Darren Sproles, the Eagles may look a bit different on offense in 2014, but they’ll still emphasize pace as a key tenet of their organizational philosophy. Probably moreso now that the team has an expectation level of what’s possible now that they have a year under their belts with Kelly.

Nick Foles – When I look at Foles ADP on FFC, he’s the 6th QB going off the board. Come August I expect that to be closer to 12-14. Consider that once he took over for Vick, while going 9-2, he also only averaged 28.36 Attempts/Game. What made Foles a prolific FF QB during this 11 game stretch were:

1) An absurd 9.17 YPA in an NFL where an 8 YPA is considered elite. When you look at Foles 22/52 downfield passing number, consider that in the best year of his career, Peyton Manning had a completion rate of 47.8%...you’ll see that Foles is in pretty good company. Drew Brees for instance completed 37.5% of these throws. Do you have confidence in Foles being able to replicate this performance? With a new deep threat? I’m skeptical.

2) An elite TD ratio. Again, comparing to Peyton Manning who had the best season his first ballot HOF career, Foles actually threw TD’s more frequently than Manning; 8.52% of his attempts vs 8.35%. Russell Wilson was 3rd at 6.39%.

3) The lack of negative points. With 2 INT’s…that’s -4 point over the course of the season.

When the Eagles are going good, Foles is a complimentary weapon. One that last year took full advantage of the attention paid to other members of the Eagles offense, but now will have to perform under a higher degree of scrutiny. Even if he’s very good, it will be a significant step down. Interesting stat about the Eagles QB’s last season. Matt Barkley led the team with 4 INT’s.

Lesean McCoy – The last 7 games of the regular season, McCoy averaged 150 YFS and a TD/game. In where the rushing attacks of NFL offenses are being distributed amongst 2-3 players now, the numbers McCoy has a chance to put up really exploit the delta between him and the rest of the NFL save for perhaps Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson. a number that worries me about McCoy is that he played (according to PFF) 890 snaps in 2013. It’s why it’s almost impossible to ignore either of these three RB’s at the top of the draft – because their opportunity combined with their talent offers a unique delta variance between them and most other RB’s. And with that said, the stature of elite RB’s is probably the most fragile element in all of FF. Year after year, we see examples of players who are seen in this category of player and circumstances most closely aligned with random injuries wreck havoc with many a FF team. In 2013 alone, those who drafted Doug Martin, CJ Spiller and Arian Foster were for the most part hampered because those backs were not able to complete a healthy season.

Even with McCoy’s workload from a snap perspective, you could argue he wasn’t overworked. His touch percentage (touches/snaps) was a very manageable 41.37%. Upping that to 47%, could reduce McCoy’s snaps by 112 while keeping him at the same touch level. With the addition of Darren Sproles, the Eagles will have the ability to spell McCoy without sacrificing the diversity on offense they have with McCoy in the game. With Chris Polk also in the mix, the Eagles should be able to do a better job at conserving their most important offensive piece. At the end of the day, McCoy will be a Top 3 pick and it’s doubtful that anything outside random injury will keep him outside of the Top 5 RB point producers.

Jeremy Maclin/Riley Cooper/Jordan Matthews – Between Desean Jackson and Jason Avant, the Eagles are losing 120/1779/11. It shocked me when I saw that Cooper played 1060 out of a possible 1128 offensive snaps in 2013. Nick Foles became THE starter in PHI Week 6. In those 11 games, Cooper put up the following stat line 39(65)/742/7. Prorated over 16 games, that’s a 57/1079/11 line. Desean Jackson has always been one of those receivers who defenses struggled to keep in front of them. But Jackson’s sometimes mercurial nature seemed to be at least one of the causes for his inconsistency. With a new coaching staff in place, Jackson put up his best and most consistent season in his career. Not only was he productive, his presence allowed for the offense to have more room in the downfield passing game. While it was gutsy that Kelly saw fit to rid himself of Jackson, I’m unsure that Maclin can provide that element to the PHI offense. It’s difficult for me to reconcile that PHI can replicate their unheard of 14.7 Yards/Completion figure (counting only Foles/Vick) without the type of threat Desean Jackson was/is. With PHI being an offense that will most likely be amongst the bottom 8 teams in passing attempts can any one of the three WR’s listed above standout to be anything more than a WR2? With that said, do any of these WR’s need to step up in that manner? Maclin is being drafted currently as WR24 and Cooper as WR39! Is this an indication that Zach Ertz is being seen by drafters as an elite TE in waiting? Not really, he’s being drafted as TE12. At WR24, you’re generally looking at Marques Colston 2013 production (75/943/5). At WR 39? James Jones is a good example (59/817/3). While Matthews looks like a nice prospect, I actually think that the draft values of Maclin/Cooper are more indicative of where they’ll wind up than Foles at QB6. It may not exactly mirror their draft standing, but it makes a lot more sense. Now can Matthews be this years Keenan Allen? I think it’ll be tough for anyone to be this years Allen, but if he’s going to emerge, I think he’d do so at Maclin’s expense. Maclin maybe better suited for slot type role anyway, but how often the Eagles go with 3 WR’s will be a subject of debate given that the Eagles have a pretty solid stable of TE’s they can leverage in a rush based attack. So if Matthews does emerge, it would probably be the type of emergence we saw over the course of the season, which makes Maclin a poor in-season play or a draft early/hope he explodes Weeks 1-3 and get rid of him candidate.

Zach Ertz – Ertz falls in that popular Year 2 breakout candidate category that often excites FFers in July/August. Whether that materializes into something worthwhile from an FF perspective…? Jury is out. What I don’t see happening is Foles turning Ertz into a star. While he does appear to be the better of the 2 Stanford TE’s drafted highly the past 3 years (the other being Coby Fleener), And with a passing attack built on an ability to get yards in big chunks because of theirs and the defenses concentration on the run game, I see Ertz as having a definitive ceiling that while perhaps giving him mid-low TE1 status, also provides a good deal of risk since Brent Celek and James Casey logged 1021 snaps last season. Is Celek simply going to be discarded? Perhaps Ertz does emerge as TE1 in PHI, does he get on the field for 800 snaps (as opposed to 459 his rookie year)? While I think there is a lot to like about Ertz in the PHI offense, the combination of his role, my projected regression of Foles, and the continuation of the run game carrying the water in the PHI offense, I see just moderate improvement from Ertz on the horizon in 2014.

Projections:

Foles: 310 Completions, 503 Attempts 3863 Passing Yards 28 TD’s 15 INT’s; 49 rushes 217 Rushing Yards 2 TD’s.
McCoy: 273 Rushes 1373 Rushing Yards 10 TD’s. 55 Receptions 459 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.
Maclin: 58 Receptions 806 Receiving Yards, 4 TD’s.
Cooper: 66 Receptions 958 Receiving Yards 8 TD’s.
Matthews: 42 Receptions 537 Receiving Yards 3 TD’s.
Sproles: 46 Rushes 159 Rushing Yards 1 TD; 45 Receptions 324 Receiving Yards 3 TD’s
Ertz: 53 Receptions 634 Receiving Yards 6 TD’s.

 
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There are two things in the Shark Pool I look forward to every year.

1) The Faust training camp news thread (now apparently extended to the offseason)

2) The Dirty Word commentary in the Spotlight threads.

Always insightful and comprehensive. With both qualitative and quantitative analysis. If you're going to disagree with his projections it really makes you come up with sound rationale as to why.

Nice job.

 
This was an interesting exercise and I'm glad I took the time to sit down and hash it out.

It all comes down to plays. I think the Eagles will run more plays this season than last year's 1,054 (barely above the league average), but reversion to the mean makes it likely that this won't produce much in the way of incremental yards or TDs, as their per-play numbers were off-the-charts efficient last season. Effectively, the Eagles will have to run harder this season just to stay in place.

But Chip says he wants to run more plays, and I believe him. Let's bump them up to 1,100 total plays. Keeping Chip's run/pass ratio consistent with 2013 would give the Birds 520 rushes in 2014. But that's before you consider that of last year's 500, Vick had 36 - which simply bolting onto Foles' totals would give him 95 rushes (or three more than Colin Kaepernick had. I'll pause here until you finish laughing).

I didn't realize it until I tried to square individual projections with that of the team but, even after you give Shady the 300 or so that are his due, there's a ton of additional carries to allocate here. And the obvious question becomes: Who's gonna do all this extra pounding of the rock? Simple math yields some surprising places to look for fantasy value on this roster (on which more below); and beyond that I think we're going to see Chip running the ball out of a number of unusual formations in '14, with guys like Sproles and maybe even Josh Huff getting more rushing work than anyone expects.

Anyway, an assumption that the Birds run the ball (let's call it) 515 times leaves 585 dropbacks for Foles, less the 40 or so sacks he'll probably take. I don't see anything unsustainable about last year's 64% completion rate, especially given that his WR corps loses a home-run hitter and gains more of a chain-mover this season. However, his TD and INT percentages will obviously mean-revert, as will his YPA and YPC averages. I've plugged in what I consider reasonable figures for a second-year starter in Chip's system sans D-Jax (5.7% and 2.6% at 8 YPA).

Add it all up, and we come up with something like this:
Total plays = 1,100 (515 rush, 545 PA, 40 sacks)
Rush yards = 2,510 (4.9 YPR)
Pass yards = 4,350 (8.0 YPA)
Sack yards = -280 (7.0 avg)
Total yards = 6,580 (6.0 yds/play)

Rushing
McCoy: 305 rush, 1,485 yds, 10 TD; 40 rec, 420 yds, 2 TD
Polk: 75 rush, 435 yds, 4 TD; 8 rec, 80 yds, 0 TD
Sproles: 50 rush, 260 yds, 1 TD; 55 rec, 480 yds, 4 TD
Foles: 50 rush, 190 yds, 3 TD
Others: 35 rush, 140 yds, 1 TD

Passing
Foles: 348/545 (64%), 4,350 yds (8.0 YPA), 31 TD, 14 INT
Maclin: 70 rec, 950 yds, 7 TD
Ertz: 60 rec, 660 yds, 5 TD
Cooper: 50 rec, 825 yds, 7 TD
Matthews: 33 rec, 400 yds, 3 TD
Others: 32 rec, 487 yds, 3 TD

From a fantasy perspective (isn't that why we're all here?), Foles' projection slots in nicely with Dalton's and Rivers' lines last year. Dalton finished QB5 and Rivers QB6, so Foles looks fairly valued to me at his current ADP - admittedly with higher risk than most of those being drafted around him, though I'd argue higher upside as well. (After all, while it seems likely sitting here in June, there's no guarantee Chip's going to run the ball 500+ times again this season. He'll do whatever works.)

Barring injury, Shady's as close to a lock for the top-5 as anyone in the league. I'd be happy taking him 1.02 because of his very low productivity risk in this system, though I still prefer Charles at 1.01 just on sheer talent. Sproles should likewise be a safe bet to deliver to his current low-end RB2 ADP. And (bold out-of-nowhere prediction alert!) unless Chip absolutely runs the tires off those two, Chris Polk could easily put up 500+ yards from scrimmage and 4+ TDs - equivalent to RB45-50 on a points basis even before accounting for him as a Shady handcuff, and excellent value for what'll be a WW pickup in virtually every league.

As for the receivers, if Foles puts up a 4,300-yard season, one or two of the big 4 are going to outperform their ADPs, almost by default. Most of these projections seem high based on gut feel ... but I didn't want to pin myself down on a real monster season out of anyone, I've already allocated more catches to the RBs than I think is likely, and the rest of the balls have to go somewhere. Of the four, I'd say Maclin and Cooper both have a large chance of outperforming their ADPs (WR32 and WR38 in the SSLs) by a small amount, while Ertz (TE10) and Matthews (WR58) have a smaller chance of outpacing theirs by a large amount (depending on whether Chip decides to roll with 2-TE or three-wide sets more often, respectively). One way or another, if Year 2 of the Chip Kelly experiment is as successful as Year 1, some guys wearing midnight green are probably going to win some folks some leagues this winter.

I can't wait for Week 1. :football:
 
In year one of Chip Kelly with the Eagles the offense they ran 1054 plays (-46sacks)

The league average over the last 3 seasons has been 1029. So they ran 25 more plays than the last 3 year league average. Incidentally this was still 25 less plays than what the Eagles ran in 2012. So that suggests to me that despite the higher pace of the up tempo strategy, the higher frequency of runs, still led to less overall plays (compared to Reid in 2012)

Discussion on up tempo offense here- http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=685640&hl=%2Bup+%2Btempo

I set the total plays for the Eagles at the league average of the last 3 seasons which is 1029. For reference the Eagles had 1008 plays in 2013 after subtracting sacks. So this is still a slight increase in total plays by 21 compared to last season. Last seasons run plays were used 49.6% of the time. Very balanced.

1029 49.6% run 519pa 510ra

Nick Foles has 20 games played in his 1st 2 seasons. He started 16 of those games and compiled 582pa 29.1pa/gm would be 465.6pa 364cmp 62.5%cmp 4590yds 33TD 5.7TD% 7int 1.2%int ay/a 8.5 229.5ypg 48sk -304yds 7.6sk%

On 519pa at 7.6sk% would be 39 sacks. So 480pa which is very close to his 465.6pa based on 29.1pa/gm


Foles 450-519pa 62.5cmp% 281-324cmp 8.5ay/a 3825-4412yds 26-28TD 50-70ra 3.9ypc 195-273yds

510 rushing attempts- 430-450ra to RB Foles 50-70ra 3.9ypc 0-10 run to WR/other. Last season there were 402ra to RB.

Without Vick I think there will be more rushing attempts given to the RB. Foles will still run a lot but at 3.9ypc I do not expect as much as Vick/Foles combined.


McCoy 301-315ra 4.8ypc 1445-1512yds 7-12TD
Polk 60-90ra 4.4ypc 264-396yds 1-4TD
Sproles 30-50ra 5.1ypc 153-255yds 0-2TD
Foles 50-70ra 3.9ypc
0-10 run to WR/other.


Snap counts for skill players in 2013 were

Jackson 987os 89.4% 126tg 82rec 1332yds 9TD
Cooper 981os 88.9% 84tg 47rec 835yds 8TD
McCoy 873os 79.1% 65tg 52rec 539yds 2TD
Celek 845os 76.5% 50tg 32rec 502yds 6TD
Avant 789os 71.5% 76tg 38rec 447yds 2TD
Ertz 450os 40.8% 56tg 36rec 469yds 4TD
Brown 194os 17.6% 13tg 8rec 84yds
Casey 154os 13.9% 6tg 3rec 31yds
Maehl 127os 11.5% 9tg 4rec 67yds 1TD
Johnson 53os 4.8% 3tg 2rec 14yds
Polk 46os 4.2% 5tg 4rec 61yds

Main additions/subtractions from freeagency/draft are Sproles and Matthews but they lost Jackson.

It is possible the loss of DeSean Jackson may lead to less long TD scores for the offense and subsequently more plays.

There is a stark contrast in the difference between Reid passing offense and Chip Kelly in the average yards/attempt
which was 6ypa for Foles in 2012 then 10.5 in 2013. The league average ay/a in 2013 was 6.8 2012 and 2011 it was 6.7 so this was well above the league average.

Part of this may have left with Jackson, but not all of it as Riley Cooper averaged an outstanding 17.8ypr and Celeks was
15.7 I think it is pretty clear that Kelly is having Foles push the ball down the field more than Reids WCO. This extended to receptions by McCoy as well who had 10.5ypr in 2013 with his previous best being 7.7 which is the league average on receptions for RBs.

So I am asking myself if these yards/reception numbers are outliers or a product of the new offense? I am not sure. I
went with career averages for ypr for these projections. I used 14.2 (team average in 2013) for Matthews. If this is more a product of the offense, then this may be too conservative an expectation.


Maclin 80-120tg 48-72rec 13.4ypc 643-965yds 5-7TD
Cooper 60-90tg 30-50rec 16.3ypc 489-815yds 3-5TD
McCoy 301-315ra 4.8ypc 1445-1512yds 7-12TD 60-80tg 47-63rec 7.8 367-490yds 2-4TD
Celek 40-60tg 26-39rec 12.7ypc 332-495yds 3-5TD
Matthews 60-90tg 36-54rec 14.2ypc 511-767yds 3-5TD
Sproles 30-50ra 5.1ypc 153-255yds 0-2TD 40-60tg 32-47rec 8.5ypc 272-400yds 2-5TD
Ertz 50-75tg 32-48rec 14.2ypc 454-624yds 3-6TD
Polk 60-90ra 4.4ypc 264-396yds 1-4TD 10-20tg 7-16rec 7.7ypc 54-123yds 0-1TD
Casey/others 10-30tg and 0-200yds

I may be a bit low on Sproles targets in the passing game. I am also a bit uncertain if Maclin will actually lead the team in targets (have not seen his role with CK yet). I think Matthews may end up being the WR 1 in 2015 but I am not projecting him as such as a rookie.

I am also not sure which WR might be asked to run the ball on constraint plays with Jackson gone. My main thought was that would be Sproles.

Polk had exceptional ypc (8.9) on limited carries and also on his 4 receptions 15.3 that I do not consider sustainable. I used league averages for this as well except for a slight bump to his ypc. But again this might be too low if the high yard/reception numbers from last year can be maintained.
 
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Love TheDirtyWords analysis as usual. Quick question though...you are projecting 3718 receiving yards for the players you listed. You project Foles to throw for 3863 yds. I guess you see Celek's numbers reducing to almost nothing?

Foles:

It definitely seems that there's a disconnect right now with how high Foles is being ranked, and how unspectacularly his WRs/TE are being ranked. I agree with TDW that he will fall, probably to around 10-12 by the time August rolls around.

Foles is trickier than most QBs to project because he didn't play the full season and his numbers were statistically unbelievable. He averaged 28.36 attempts/game once he became the starter. Prorated over 16 games, that's only 454 attempts. Dodds and others have projected 550+ attempts. I don't see it. Philly is built on the run and I see 515-525 attempts as much more likely. Secondly, his 9.12 yds/attempt is ridiculous. That is a once in a year season for a HOF QB (Peyton and Rodgers have done better than 9.0 yds/attempt for only 1 season each).

520 attempts x 7.9 yds/attempt (still quite impressive) = 4108 yds which i think is reasonable.

LeSean:

I don't have much to add that hasn't already been said. He's amazing and looks like a video game player the way he makes cuts out there. It was him...and then everyone else in that snow-filled DET game. Around 300 carries and 45 catches seems quite reasonable to me.

I'm curious to see how many catches Sproles ends up getting. He's about to turn 31 next week, but he's averaged over 77 receptions/year over the past 3 years in New Orleans. I have projected 45 catches for Sproles and McCoy. That's 90 receptions compared to the 60 receptions that BBrown and Shady totaled in 2013. Not sure how I feel about that, but giving Sproles anything under 45 receptions seems almost criminal.

The WRs:

TDW has great analysis regarding the WRs. It seems like most people are thinking that Maclin is going to move into the WR1 spot and replace DJAX's numbers. I don't see it. Not only is he recovering from last year's injury, he's averaging 13.4 yds/reception for his career (which includes 258 receptions over 4 years, not a small sample). Asking him to do anything near DJackson's 16.2 yds/rec last year (17.2 yds/rec for his career) seems illogical. I see a lot of cannibalization here and considering Lesean/Sproles/Ertz/Celek + Maclin/Cooper/Mathews are all competing for about 330 completions...I don't see anyone rising above WR2/3 level here. Something around 850/6 for both Maclin and Cooper seems reasonable to me. Mathews seems to be lighting up camp so far, so that will certainly be interesting to watch. I don't see a clear WR1 here and I don't see the potential for a 1200yd/9TD season from Maclin or Cooper or Mathews. ...but i could be wrong.

Regarding ADP, i think Cooper is a value right now at WR38 and if JMathews continues to impress, I could definitely see taking a flyer on him in the hope that he overtakes Maclin at some point during the season. Maclin is currently around WR24 according to FFC, around guys like Hilton/MFloyd/ESanders. I'll be passing on him most likely.

Ertz:

Before doing my projections, I was very optimistic about Ertz. Great size and skills. I thought maybe he'd be projected as a top 8 TE. But looking at the numbers, I don't see him getting more than 50 receptions. And i see his yds/rec coming down a bit from 13 to around 12. Again, I don't see enough passes in this offense to allow him the 60-70 receptions he would need to be a fantasy force.

Celek had 32/502/6 so while I don't think he's worth much in fantasy football, he definitely has the ability to take yds and TDs away from others.

Foles: 328 completions, 520 attempts, 4108 yds, 29 TDs, 14 INTs. 50 rushes, 200 yds, 2 TDs

McCoy: 295 rushes, 4.6 yds/carry, 1357 yds, 9 TDs. 45 receptions, 357 yds, 2 TDs

Sproles: 50 rushes, 4.3 yds/carry, 215 yds, 1 TD. 45 receptions, 360 yds, 3 TDs

Maclin: 65 receptions, 878 yds, 6 TDs

Cooper: 57 receptions, 872 yds, 7 TDs

Mathews: 40 receptions, 540 yds, 1 TD

Ertz: 47 receptions, 555 yds, 5 TDs

 
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Good reading, thanks for the posts.

I was surprised at seeing the run/pass ratio numbers for last season. I would have thought the run percentage was higher than it actually was. I'm thinking there might be even more emphasis on the run this season, and we will be surprised at how many carries Sproles will be given. This is probably way out of line, just spitballing.

Foles 305/495, 3810, 24/8

McCoy 300/1440

Sproles 80/365

Polk 60/270

Maclin 56/760

Matthews 39/600

Cooper 42/660

Sproles 60/490

McCoy 42/356

Ertz 38/530

Celek 20/255

 
koreansteve said:
Love TheDirtyWords analysis as usual. Quick question though...you are projecting 3718 receiving yards for the players you listed. You project Foles to throw for 3863 yds. I guess you see Celek's numbers reducing to almost nothing?
Click to expand...
Thanks, it's probably more of an oversight that my numbers show that little wiggle room between the players listed and not listed. With that said, If Celek is shown to have played 864 snaps in 2013, and Zach Ertz 459...I think those numbers do a reversal of sorts. Coupled with acquisition of Sproles and the drafting of Matthews, while they may not have the difference making talent of Jackson at the top of the depth chart, it looks like a deeper, more diverse group of pass catchers. So I do think the TE spot behind Ertz will be less productive. But maybe not THAT less...

 
1) An absurd 9.17 YPA in an NFL where an 8 YPA is considered elite. When you look at Foles 22/52 downfield passing number, consider that in the best year of his career, Peyton Manning had a completion rate of 47.8%...you’ll see that Foles is in pretty good company. Drew Brees for instance completed 37.5% of these throws. Do you have confidence in Foles being able to replicate this performance? With a new deep threat? I’m skeptical.

2) An elite TD ratio. Again, comparing to Peyton Manning who had the best season his first ballot HOF career, Foles actually threw TD’s more frequently than Manning; 8.52% of his attempts vs 8.35%. Russell Wilson was 3rd at 6.39%.
Click to expand...
I've looked at the QB's who have done this and it's a pretty good list to be on.

QB's 30 and under:

Code: 
        NAME 	        POS     YR 	AGE 	EXP     G 	CMP     ATT     PYD 	Y/A 	PTD INT 	FANT PT1	Kurt Warner	qb	2000	29	3	11	235	347	3429	9.88	21	18	239.22	A. Rodgers	qb	2011	28	7	15	343	502	4643	9.25	45	6	449.93	B. Esiason	qb	1988	27	5	16	223	388	3572	9.21	28	14	307.44	P. Manning	qb	2004	28	7	16	336	497	4557	9.17	49	10	417.75	Nick Foles	qb	2013	24	2	13	203	317	2891	9.12	27	2	291.16	Steve Young	qb	1991	30	7	11	180	279	2517	9.02	17	8	251.47	Dan Marino	qb	1984	23	2	16	362	564	5084	9.01	48	17	428.58	Roethlisberger	qb	2005	23	2	13	168	268	2385	8.90	17	9	203.29	Roethlisberger	qb	2004	22	1	14	196	295	2621	8.88	17	11	208.510	Kurt Warner	qb	2001	30	4	16	375	546	4830	8.85	36	22	369.5
 
TheDirtyWord said:
Projections:

Foles: 310 Completions, 503 Attempts 3863 Passing Yards 28 TD’s 15 INT’s; 49 rushes 217 Rushing Yards 2 TD’s.

McCoy: 273 Rushes 1373 Rushing Yards 10 TD’s. 55 Receptions 459 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.

Maclin: 58 Receptions 806 Receiving Yards, 4 TD’s.

Cooper: 66 Receptions 958 Receiving Yards 8 TD’s.

Matthews: 42 Receptions 537 Receiving Yards 3 TD’s.

Sproles: 46 Rushes 159 Rushing Yards 1 TD; 45 Receptions 324 Receiving Yards 3 TD’s

Ertz: 53 Receptions 634 Receiving Yards 6 TD’s.
Click to expand...
Loving your projections right here, more or less hits my thoughts almost exactly. Although I'd probably drop Matthews into the 30-35 reception range and bump Ertz up to the 58-65 range and also Flip Maclin and Cooper. But all in all, the most important part of it you hit on the head to me. Anyone who really thinks that Nick Foles is going to go 300/467 4310 yards and 43 TDs with only 3 INTs is kidding themselves. Which is something I've seen thrown around a lot on these boards. Also the other thing I've noticed is a lot of people projecting him for 550-600 attempts on the season. And I'll say this again...

Last season, the Eagles (Foles + Vick) attempted a total of 508 passing attempts. At Oregon extrapolating his per-season pass attempts from 2007-2012 (his tenure) over a 16 game season the most any QB he coached at Oregon passed for was 508 attempts in 2007 his 'rookie' OC season. If you really think there's a realistic chance of Foles throwing for more than 500-525 passes on the season you're both a) kind of kidding yourself and b) pulling it from nothing more than thin air.

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
This was an interesting exercise and I'm glad I took the time to sit down and hash it out.

It all comes down to plays. I think the Eagles will run more plays this season than last year's 1,054 (barely above the league average), but reversion to the mean makes it likely that this won't produce much in the way of incremental yards or TDs, as their per-play numbers were off-the-charts efficient last season. Effectively, the Eagles will have to run harder this season just to stay in place.

But Chip says he wants to run more plays, and I believe him. Let's bump them up to 1,100 total plays. Keeping Chip's run/pass ratio consistent with 2013 would give the Birds 520 rushes in 2014. But that's before you consider that of last year's 500, Vick had 36 - which simply bolting onto Foles' totals would give him 95 rushes (or three more than Colin Kaepernick had. I'll pause here until you finish laughing).

I didn't realize it until I tried to square individual projections with that of the team but, even after you give Shady the 300 or so that are his due, there's a ton of additional carries to allocate here. And the obvious question becomes: Who's gonna do all this extra pounding of the rock? Simple math yields some surprising places to look for fantasy value on this roster (on which more below); and beyond that I think we're going to see Chip running the ball out of a number of unusual formations in '14, with guys like Sproles and maybe even Josh Huff getting more rushing work than anyone expects.

Anyway, an assumption that the Birds run the ball (let's call it) 515 times leaves 585 dropbacks for Foles, less the 40 or so sacks he'll probably take. I don't see anything unsustainable about last year's 64% completion rate, especially given that his WR corps loses a home-run hitter and gains more of a chain-mover this season. However, his TD and INT percentages will obviously mean-revert, as will his YPA and YPC averages. I've plugged in what I consider reasonable figures for a second-year starter in Chip's system sans D-Jax (5.7% and 2.6% at 8 YPA).

Add it all up, and we come up with something like this:
Total plays = 1,100 (515 rush, 545 PA, 40 sacks)
Rush yards = 2,510 (4.9 YPR)
Pass yards = 4,350 (8.0 YPA)
Sack yards = -280 (7.0 avg)
Total yards = 6,580 (6.0 yds/play)

Rushing
McCoy: 305 rush, 1,485 yds, 10 TD; 40 rec, 420 yds, 2 TD
Polk: 75 rush, 435 yds, 4 TD; 8 rec, 80 yds, 0 TD
Sproles: 50 rush, 260 yds, 1 TD; 55 rec, 480 yds, 4 TD
Foles: 50 rush, 190 yds, 3 TD
Others: 35 rush, 140 yds, 1 TD

Passing
Foles: 348/545 (64%), 4,350 yds (8.0 YPA), 31 TD, 14 INT
Maclin: 70 rec, 950 yds, 7 TD
Ertz: 60 rec, 660 yds, 5 TD
Cooper: 50 rec, 825 yds, 7 TD
Matthews: 33 rec, 400 yds, 3 TD
Others: 32 rec, 487 yds, 3 TD

From a fantasy perspective (isn't that why we're all here?), Foles' projection slots in nicely with Dalton's and Rivers' lines last year. Dalton finished QB5 and Rivers QB6, so Foles looks fairly valued to me at his current ADP - admittedly with higher risk than most of those being drafted around him, though I'd argue higher upside as well. (After all, while it seems likely sitting here in June, there's no guarantee Chip's going to run the ball 500+ times again this season. He'll do whatever works.)

Barring injury, Shady's as close to a lock for the top-5 as anyone in the league. I'd be happy taking him 1.02 because of his very low productivity risk in this system, though I still prefer Charles at 1.01 just on sheer talent. Sproles should likewise be a safe bet to deliver to his current low-end RB2 ADP. And (bold out-of-nowhere prediction alert!) unless Chip absolutely runs the tires off those two, Chris Polk could easily put up 500+ yards from scrimmage and 4+ TDs - equivalent to RB45-50 on a points basis even before accounting for him as a Shady handcuff, and excellent value for what'll be a WW pickup in virtually every league.

As for the receivers, if Foles puts up a 4,300-yard season, one or two of the big 4 are going to outperform their ADPs, almost by default. Most of these projections seem high based on gut feel ... but I didn't want to pin myself down on a real monster season out of anyone, I've already allocated more catches to the RBs than I think is likely, and the rest of the balls have to go somewhere. Of the four, I'd say Maclin and Cooper both have a large chance of outperforming their ADPs (WR32 and WR38 in the SSLs) by a small amount, while Ertz (TE10) and Matthews (WR58) have a smaller chance of outpacing theirs by a large amount (depending on whether Chip decides to roll with 2-TE or three-wide sets more often, respectively). One way or another, if Year 2 of the Chip Kelly experiment is as successful as Year 1, some guys wearing midnight green are probably going to win some folks some leagues this winter.

I can't wait for Week 1. :football:
Click to expand...
I think that the overall number of plays the offense runs will increase in 2014 because of the sheer fact that I think the defense is going to be better. They will get off the field faster than last year which will give more possessions to the offense. More possessions equals more plays.

The Eagles offense ran about 2.5 plays per minute last year. They averaged about 26 minutes a game time of possession. If they can get the time of possession up to 28 minutes a game due to the defense getting off the field faster, and they run plays at the same rate, that would be an additional 80 plays over last year, or 1,134 in 2014 compared to 1,054 in 2013. That should significantly help the offensive numbers of all the Eagles.

 
Biabreakable said:
In year one of Chip Kelly with the Eagles the offense they ran 1054 plays (-46sacks)

The league average over the last 3 seasons has been 1029. So they ran 25 more plays than the last 3 year league average. Incidentally this was still 25 less plays than what the Eagles ran in 2012. So that suggests to me that despite the higher pace of the up tempo strategy, the higher frequency of runs, still led to less overall plays (compared to Reid in 2012)

Discussion on up tempo offense here- http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=685640&hl=%2Bup+%2Btempo

I set the total plays for the Eagles at the league average of the last 3 seasons which is 1029. For reference the Eagles had 1008 plays in 2013 after subtracting sacks. So this is still a slight increase in total plays by 21 compared to last season. Last seasons run plays were used 49.6% of the time. Very balanced.

1029 49.6% run 519pa 510ra

Nick Foles has 20 games played in his 1st 2 seasons. He started 16 of those games and compiled 582pa 29.1pa/gm would be 465.6pa 364cmp 62.5%cmp 4590yds 33TD 5.7TD% 7int 1.2%int ay/a 8.5 229.5ypg 48sk -304yds 7.6sk%

On 519pa at 7.6sk% would be 39 sacks. So 480pa which is very close to his 465.6pa based on 29.1pa/gm


Foles 450-519pa 62.5cmp% 281-324cmp 8.5ay/a 3825-4412yds 26-28TD 50-70ra 3.9ypc 195-273yds

510 rushing attempts- 430-450ra to RB Foles 50-70ra 3.9ypc 0-10 run to WR/other. Last season there were 402ra to RB.

Without Vick I think there will be more rushing attempts given to the RB. Foles will still run a lot but at 3.9ypc I do not expect as much as Vick/Foles combined.


McCoy 301-315ra 4.8ypc 1445-1512yds 7-12TD
Polk 60-90ra 4.4ypc 264-396yds 1-4TD
Sproles 30-50ra 5.1ypc 153-255yds 0-2TD
Foles 50-70ra 3.9ypc
0-10 run to WR/other.


Snap counts for skill players in 2013 were

Jackson 987os 89.4% 126tg 82rec 1332yds 9TD
Cooper 981os 88.9% 84tg 47rec 835yds 8TD
McCoy 873os 79.1% 65tg 52rec 539yds 2TD
Celek 845os 76.5% 50tg 32rec 502yds 6TD
Avant 789os 71.5% 76tg 38rec 447yds 2TD
Ertz 450os 40.8% 56tg 36rec 469yds 4TD
Brown 194os 17.6% 13tg 8rec 84yds
Casey 154os 13.9% 6tg 3rec 31yds
Maehl 127os 11.5% 9tg 4rec 67yds 1TD
Johnson 53os 4.8% 3tg 2rec 14yds
Polk 46os 4.2% 5tg 4rec 61yds

Main additions/subtractions from freeagency/draft are Sproles and Matthews but they lost Jackson.

It is possible the loss of DeSean Jackson may lead to less long TD scores for the offense and subsequently more plays.

There is a stark contrast in the difference between Reid passing offense and Chip Kelly in the average yards/attempt
which was 6ypa for Foles in 2012 then 10.5 in 2013. The league average ay/a in 2013 was 6.8 2012 and 2011 it was 6.7 so this was well above the league average.

Part of this may have left with Jackson, but not all of it as Riley Cooper averaged an outstanding 17.8ypr and Celeks was
15.7 I think it is pretty clear that Kelly is having Foles push the ball down the field more than Reids WCO. This extended to receptions by McCoy as well who had 10.5ypr in 2013 with his previous best being 7.7 which is the league average on receptions for RBs.

So I am asking myself if these yards/reception numbers are outliers or a product of the new offense? I am not sure. I
went with career averages for ypr for these projections. I used 14.2 (team average in 2013) for Matthews. If this is more a product of the offense, then this may be too conservative an expectation.


Maclin 80-120tg 48-72rec 13.4ypc 643-965yds 5-7TD
Cooper 60-90tg 30-50rec 16.3ypc 489-815yds 3-5TD
McCoy 301-315ra 4.8ypc 1445-1512yds 7-12TD 60-80tg 47-63rec 7.8 367-490yds 2-4TD
Celek 40-60tg 26-39rec 12.7ypc 332-495yds 3-5TD
Matthews 60-90tg 36-54rec 14.2ypc 511-767yds 3-5TD
Sproles 30-50ra 5.1ypc 153-255yds 0-2TD 40-60tg 32-47rec 8.5ypc 272-400yds 2-5TD
Ertz 50-75tg 32-48rec 14.2ypc 454-624yds 3-6TD
Polk 60-90ra 4.4ypc 264-396yds 1-4TD 10-20tg 7-16rec 7.7ypc 54-123yds 0-1TD
Casey/others 10-30tg and 0-200yds

I may be a bit low on Sproles targets in the passing game. I am also a bit uncertain if Maclin will actually lead the team in targets (have not seen his role with CK yet). I think Matthews may end up being the WR 1 in 2015 but I am not projecting him as such as a rookie.

I am also not sure which WR might be asked to run the ball on constraint plays with Jackson gone. My main thought was that would be Sproles.

Polk had exceptional ypc (8.9) on limited carries and also on his 4 receptions 15.3 that I do not consider sustainable. I used league averages for this as well except for a slight bump to his ypc. But again this might be too low if the high yard/reception numbers from last year can be maintained.
Click to expand...
Echoing Hockster, a few things:

(1) there have been news reports that Kelly wants to run at a faster pace this year. I don't have the data, but would wager that he was able to increase the speed of play between his years 1 and 2 at Oregon. With the majority of players returning in his system, it makes sense that they will make strides in OTAs and camps this year in doing so.

(2) the defense should improve because it was near the league bottom last year. If the defense is only bottom 40%, or average, that should allow them to get the ball back to the offense for more production.

(3) reports from Eagles observers are that the OTAs have so far been manic track meets. All the evidence points to a continuation, and an improvement, on Kelly's speed of play system. The other factor here is that Foles gets the whole offseason with the first team, without the wasting reps on Vick who was probably not super-competent at running the high speed of play last year.

Re: Foles regression to the mean, it seems universal that the INTs will increase. But as to his "unsustainable" PPG and YPA, consider that in the 5 games that Vick was healthy (more or less) and excluding the game that knocked him out, he was averaging 24 PPG (although he did it with his legs more than Foles), which was about top 3, in line with Foles at 22 PPG. Small sample size, but just goes to show that the system can produce top 5 QBs even with the emphasis on the run game.

For YPA, consider that Vick's career YPA is 7.1, and his previous season high for YPA was 8.1 in his incredible half-season with the Eagles, but in Kelly's system put up 8.6 YPA. As pointed out above, Foles had a much higher YPA in Kelly's system as compared to Reid. It just goes to show that Kelly has a QB friendly, deep ball passing system. This was a bit of a surprise to me because one of the staples at Oregon was the WR bubble screen, but in the NFL he favored a deep ball game. Kelly's whole system is designed to create 1-5% advantages due to the zone read and the speed of play, etc., and it makes sense to consider that a 5% advantage is better 20 yards down field rather than 5% advantage at the LOS. NFL defenders are just less likely to miss the 1 on 1 tackle than Pac10 defenders.

As such I think some regression on INTs and YPA is expected, but in general Foles should continue to post strong PPG and YPA numbers.

 
Since I have been the leading flag waver and advocate for having team spotlights, I at least owe it to him to respond to at least one of them.

I think there are two things that should be pointed out. One, most people go overboard on projecting total number of plays and forget to account for sacks. For example, the Eagles ran 1054 plays last year, but those only yielded only 1008 actual rushing or passing attempts. Doing some quick math with Jason's projections this year, the total team passing and rushing attempts is in the 1060s. Also, for all the pomp and circumstance for the Eagles speed offense, they actually ran fewer plays in 2013 than they did in 2012. The 2012 squad ran 1079 plays including sacks with 1031 rushing and passing attempts.

Also, I view things a little differently. The 2011 Eagles offense was productive and the 2012 offense was pretty mediocre. I am not so sure Kelly is a genius, but he was able to get the offense back to 2011 levels. The 2013 team averaged 6.3 yards per play while the 2011 team averaged 6.2. The 2013 unit, though, was able to average an additional 3 ppg. Part of what made the Eagles offense look superhuman last year was their performance in two games when they compiled 103 points and 1056 yards from scrimmage against the Raiders and Bears. That accounted for 23% of their season scoring and 16% of their season yardage in just two games.

In the main, one has to think that Foles cannot possibly be as efficient as he was last year. It's unlikely he will approach 9.1 ypa, but it is almost a lock that he will not post a 27-2 TD to INT ratio. I think Foles does well, but just not crazy good like some folks may be expecting.

I also think the Eagles have a lot of decent threats and targets in the passing game, but it is hard to single out someone to have a breakout year. I projected 6 players to have at least 400 receiving yards, but someone could emerge as the go to guy and have a much bigger fantasy season.

PASSING

Foles 311-500-4000-28-11

Sanchez 14-25-200-0-1

325-525-4200-28-12

RUSHING

McCoy 300-1480-11

Sproles 60-250-2

Foles 60-4-240-2

Polk 50-200-2

Others 20-70-1

490-2240-19

RECEIVING

Maclin 60-900-6

Cooper 50-775-5

Ertz 40-550-5

Sproles 60-550-2

McCoy 40-425-2

Celek 30-400-4

Matthews 25-350-1

Casey 10-100-2

Others 10-150-1

325-4200-28

1015-6640-28 in 2014

Was 1008-6972-51 2013.

 
I think taking consideration for improved defense is a very good point. I would very much like to have more than one year of data from Chip Kelly in the NFL as I think that would be a better basis for a projection than just one season.

I haven't done any defensive evaluation for any team. That adjustment would be something I would look at after I project every teams offense and see how that looks big picture. If I have time.

If anyone has a suggestion about how best to do that I am interested.

Combined off/def plays is a way I have done that before with focus on 1st downs given up. If you can explain how defensive improvements are going to lead to less 1st downs for opposing offenses and therefore less plays I am all ears. :)

 
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