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[DYNASTY] Salary Cap thread-Using $ to make choices (1 Viewer)

massraider

massraider

Footballguy
http://overthecap.com/

If you're not familiar with the above site, it's an amazing resource.

A lot of dynasty owners look ahead for a players contract situation, but I feel like it's an underused part of strategy. Especially for IDP.

I have become fascinated by the cap in general, and different teams' approach to the cap. I'll use this thread to discuss various teams and what their outlook is for 2015, and what fantasy implications may possibly occur.

The Saints:

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints

Starting with the team that has the least amount of cap room next year, 19 mill in the hole. Jason from OTC has stated the Saints are 'all in' for this season. The 19 mill looks bad, but it's not that bad. The bulk of the money can be attributed to a 12.5 mill roster bonus due on the 3rd day of the 2015 league year to Junior Galette. That bonus is fully guaranteed, cutting him is not at option, the Saints will make that a signing bonus and pro-rate it over a few seasons. I believe if they spread it over the remaining years, that'll add 2.5 to his 2015 number, and clear 10 mill from the cap in one move.

That still leaves some money to clear just to comply, let alone sign some free agents. Brees' number jumps from 18 to 26 mill, they have 20.1 mill in cap numbers to their stating guards, and 15 mill tied up in Lofton and Hawthorne. These seem to be the most likely to see some offseason movement, and it will take more than one to have any breathing room.

Savings in cap dollars by cutting each of the above:

Jahri Evans--6 mill

Ben Grubbs--3.6 mill

Hawthorne--2.9 mill

Lofton--4 mill

It gets interesting on offense, with the 9.7 mill cap number of Marques Colston. The Saints free up 4.3 mill by saying bye to Colston.

From a dynasty perspective, the possibility of some combo of Colston, Hawthorne, and Lofton being elsewhere opens up holes that have proven to score fantasy points. Maybe a Ramon Humber at ILB is worth a look. But the spot Colston has now seems ripe to be filled with a young guy. Morgan and Meacham are JAGs, and Toon has been inactive the first two weeks, but I don't know if he was hurt. Kenny Stills is a guy that might see his dynasty value skyrocket in March. And to a lesser extent, Nick Toon.

Saint homers, love to hear thoughts.

 
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Seattle: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/seattle-seahawks

29 mill in projected cap room. Which is good, because the bill is coming due for some young talent. Some upcoming free agents over the next two years:

2015:

Cliff Avril

KJ Wright

Byron Maxwell

Ricardo Lockette

Malcolm Smith

Jermaine Kearse

2016:

Russell Okung

Marshawn Lynch

Brandon Mebane

Bobby Wagner

Russell Wilson

Robert Turbin

JR Sweezy

RB is obviously the position to get a handle on, and to a lesser extent, WR. At first glance, I think people counting on Lynch being gone to free up 7 mill in cap room/Christine Michael might be disappointed. The big ticket items don't come due till 2016, even with getting a jump on some of them, Lynch's salary looks to be easy to take. If he is showing well late in the year, tough to imagine the Seahawks not squeezing one more year out of him.

Wilson, Okung and Wagner will get theirs. How the Hawks structure those three will be really interesting. They'll have a chance to really spread the hit of these three, and I would think front-loading Wilson will be a priority.

With the potential departures of Kearse/Lockette, Doug Baldwin looks attractive as a long term starter at WR, in little danger of losing his job. Hard to imagine a high-priced free agent or rookie arriving soon.

 
I think the saints have a few guys they can restructure to push cap forward, which is what they probably do, but they have to figure out where they're going with brees, as he'll pretty much be in the brady boat.

he'll be 36 with only 2 years left on a deal and a $19m salary --- he needs to be extended if they plan on keeping him to 40.

that could be a pretty substantial cap savings right there.

I doubt they'd outright cut their guards, but it's kind of interesting because it's pretty similar to the mankins situation, so I'll be curious to see how that gets handled, whether it's restructures, extensions, or trades.

it'd be kind of tough to carry that cap at guard with brees as your qb.

colston is a good question, as he'll be 32 with only 2 yrs left and a fairly large number, so I think it might be tough to justify the extension at his age -- maybe he ends up like boldin if they can't scrounge enough cap to sit on him another year, but I think they probably shave enough cap to keep him.

if he were actually to end up a cap casualty I think cooks just takes over next to graham and they draft another receiver, maybe in a later round, while those aforementioned guys act as satellite receivers, like they do now.

overall, the core of their team is getting old, and they'll need to start the process of turning it over and bringing in rookie contracts, like the pats already have, and like they've already done with cooks.

obviously, every team brings in rookies every year, but they need to find a few more that can become core guys, like cooks, graham, armstead, vaccaro, etc

linebackers might be a priority in the upcoming draft.

this is probably already assumed by most people, but I think that cap outline underlines the fact that ingram will be moving on, for one thing, if we're looking at fantasy impact.

 
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Green Bay Packers:

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers

Roughly 19 mill in cap space for 2015, Pack are in the middle of the......pack ( <_< ) in terms of cap space.

Notable 2015 free agents:

Randall Cobb

Tramon Williams

Bryan Bulaga

Derrick Sherrod

Jarrett Boykin (RFA)

Notable 2016 free agents:

Mike Neal

Brad Jones

AJ Hawk

Mike Daniels

The Pack have few bad deals, nice cap space, and Rodgers' cap number doesn't even hit 21 mill until 2019. Dang. :moneybag:

Their 2015 class is really interesting, Cobb of course being the most fantasy relevant, and the potential for Adams to move up the pecking order. Great preseason article regarding Cobb's future here, by the great Bob McGinn. Cobb's future is interesting, with a lot of variables:

His health: Cobb needs a healthy season.

His role: Too small to be a #1 guy, how much can he cash in as a slot guy/returner? His value might vary widely, and it only takes one team.

Pack other WRs: If the Pack feel comfortable with Rodgers raising the level of his targets, and the bargain price of Boykin, Adams, and others, maybe they feel that money could be spent better elsewhere.

You have to assume the Pack would like to have him back, and we know he won't be franchised. The Pack can afford to pay him the salary of top slot guys, but who knows if he could get more, or if they think their offense wouldn't miss a beat? If I was Cobb's agent, I might be tempted to get a quick peek a free agency. The Pack won't be handing out any dumb deals to a WR, maybe another team will, or at least offer more guaranteed money up front--which is what I'd offer Cobb if I was a team with cap space, offer him more 2015 money than the Pack would like, and make the rest of the deal team-friendly. It's also possible that Cobb finds free agency not that sexy, and stays in a good situation. Keeping an eye on this situation during the season makes sense for owners of Davante Adams, and especially Jarrett Boykin.

The Pack have decisions to make regarding Brian Bulaga, who should be returning to action soon, and playing for his free agent life. The Pack also have an interesting situation in Tramon Williams. They really paid Shields, I imagine Tramon's people will start with that deal as a baseline.

Clay Matthews will be interesting soon. His contract is such that he'll be a Packer through 2015, but it'll be a coin flip after that. He has big cap numbers every year from now until 2018.

 
Kool-Aid Larry said:
I doubt they'd outright cut their guards, but it's kind of interesting because it's pretty similar to the mankins situation, so I'll be curious to see how that gets handled, whether it's restructures, extensions, or trades.

it'd be kind of tough to carry that cap at guard with brees as your qb.
Click to expand...
Jahri Evans, RG: -6.0

Breakdown: The complement to McCoy’s monster day is unfortunately the former all-pro right guard. Evans was powerless against the defensive tackle’s array of pass rushing moves. Of Evans seven pressures allowed, two came within two seconds of the snap. You can’t chalk it all up to McCoy, though. Evans worst pass blocking attempt came on Clinton McDonald with 10:19 left in the fourth quarter when a simple swim move put McDonald into Drew Brees’ lap.

Signature Stat: Evans now has the third worst pass blocking efficiency of all guards.
Click to expand...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/10/06/refo-buccaneers-saints-week-5/

 
Philadelphia Eagles

Projected 2015 Cap Space: 4.5 million.

Notable 2015 free agents: Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Graham, Mark Sanchez

Notable 2016 free agents: Nick Foles, Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks, Vinny Curry, Brandon Boykin

Lot of big names above, and not a ton of cap space. Not nearly as bad as all that, however. There's some cuts to be made:

Trent Cole: I could see a scenario where he is retained, he had 8 sacks last year, and 6.5 already this year. This 32-year-old pass rusher is still playing well. But his cap number next year is 11.626 mill, and they clear 8.4 mill by releasing him. There will be a lot of teams with a ton of cap space, I doubt Cole will simply agree to a large pay cut without at least listening to other teams.

DeMeco Ryans: Has a 6.9 mill cap number, with no dead money upon release, will be 31 years old at the start of next season, and blew his Achilles out a few weeks ago. If you haven't already, put that house on the market, DeMeco.

Brent Celek and James Casey: Lot to like about Brent Celek, but Eagles can clear 8.8 mill by getting rid of these two backup TEs.

Cary Williams: This might be completely off base, but I know Williams has his detractors, and he has a cap number of 8.12 mill, and can clear 6.5 if he is released. CBs are a premium however, and replacing him with a free agent would probably cost them close to the same. Eagles fans could probably speak to this guys standing better than I could, but any player with an 8 mill cap number on a team with a tight cap situation bears scrutiny.

Consider: By cutting Cole, Cary Williams, Ryans, Celek and Casey, they can go from 4.5 to 35 mill in cap space. :o

A lot of that space could get eaten up by re-signing some of their own players however:

Jeremy Maclin. Had an injury, signed a short term deal, bet on himself, and got dealt pocket Aces. Good for him. He's gonna get paid. Hard to imagine the Eagles letting him hit free agency, I assume Maclin would like to stay near a Chip Kelly offense, but I am sure his people are telling him this is it. Time To Get Paid. He's 26, proven back from the injury, and hasn't shown any WR diva attitude that I am aware of. 10-12 mill cap numbers ahead for Maclin.

Mychal Kendricks. Not a free agent till next year, but after him, the cupboard is pretty bare at LB. Engine of the defense, I expect to at least hear about extension talks this summer.

Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry. Both guys have flashed, and pass rushers are always at a premium, so while neither is likely to get a Michael Johnson deal, they are the kinds of players that teams might see as ready to break out. I could see Graham being a hot commodity this offseason, especially after those first huge contracts are signed. A Lamar Houston contract seems possible.

But the QB is the elephant in the room. Sanchez is on a one year deal. Foles is entering the 4th year of his original 3rd round contract. His cap number is 815,880 next year. Not a first round pick, so there's no 5th year option to pick up. The Eagles have a decision to make. Foles was here before Chip Kelly got here, and Kelly ran out and got Sanchez, and traded up for Matt Barkley. He was average at best before his broken collarbone a month ago. The coaches that wanted Foles are gone. But Sanchez hasn't been lighting things up either. Foles may be back by week 16, it will get really interesting if he has a nice playoff run.

Eagles have made very few missteps in regards to money. Jenkins, Sproles, Sanchez were all solid moves last year, but they are primed for some really interesting moves that will really set them up for the forseeable future.

 
Dallas Cowboys

Projected 2015 cap space: 1.78 million (I believe this number is closer to 9 million. OT Doug Free has a contract that voids in February, leaving 3.98 in dead money)

Notable 2015 free agents: Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Rolando McClain, Anthony Spencer, George Selvie, Cole Beasley (Doug Free)

Notable 2016 free agents: Morris Claiborne, Jeremy Mincey

Wow. Get the popcorn ready for this offseason. Did you know the Cowboys are carrying 26 mill in dead cap this year? Sounds nice to get that money next year, but Romo's cap number goes from almost 12 mill to almost 28 mill, and Tyrion Smith goes from 5 mill to 13 mill. Bye bye cap relief.

Teams with a tight cap situation like the Cowboys, you start at the top, looking at the dead cap number, and cap savings, to see how they can clear some space. Using this link: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/dallas-cowboys you can click the 2015 tab, and take a look. It's not pretty.

Brandon Carr has a cap number of 12 mill. Crazy, right? They save only 500,000 by cutting him. He is a candidate to be designated a post-June 1 casualty, which according to this article, would clear 8 mill in cap space, but add 7.4 in dead cap to 2016. They might be forced to do this. Morris Claiborne has a number of 5.175 mill. They save ZERO by cutting him. Even Jason Witten. Cap number of 8+ mill, but only a savings of 3.3 mill. They could clear some space by converting some of Tyrion Smith's base salary to a signing bonus, but that would make his future cap numbers even more unwieldy.

Henry Melton is an interesting case. He signed a prove it deal, received short money this season, and the Cowboys can pick up his option for 24 mill for 3 more years. He leads the team in sacks, and has stayed healthy. He's worth the option, but I have a hard time seeing how the Cowboys can pick up that option. They can clear 8.5 mill in cap space by releasing him.

Everything hinges on Dez Bryant. But you knew that. He has, unfortunately, made it clear he's not taking any discounts to stay in Dallas. The franchise tag seems likely, although it is possible he signs before that deadline. I think it is very possible the Cowboys pull out all the stops to avoid the franchise tag because if the tag is 12-13 mill, the Cowboys will lose whatever small amount of flexibility they have in the offseason. The other option is to franchise him, and trade his rights. A long shot, but needs to at least be considered. We'll find out soon exactly how much the Cowboys are concerned about his off-field issues.

DeMarco Murray, I believe, is headed for free agency. If he gets to free agency, the transition tag is a possibility, but there are plenty of teams that can afford a front-loaded deal that Dallas cannot match. 3rd round comp pick seems like the best option, but they wouldn't gain the cap space until he signed elsewhere.

 
This seems timely:

Denver Broncos

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/denver-broncos

Projected Cap Space: $32 million

Notable 2015 free agents: Demaryius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Rahim Moore, Orlando Franklin, Brandon Marshall (ERFA)

Notable 2016 free agents: CJ Anderson (RFA), Von Miller, Manny Ramirez, Danny Trevathan

The Broncos are in win-now mode, but unlike the Saints, aren't saddled with bad deals. $32 mill is plenty of cap room to keep players that want to be there. Demaryius is looking at a franchise tag at worst, and a long term deal at best.

#1 priority: Peyton Manning. Briefly, his contract:

2015: Cap number: 21.5 mill. Cap savings if cut: 16.5 mill

2016: Cap number: 21.5 mill. Cap savings if cut: 19 mill

Does he want to come back? Do the Broncos want him back? Just one guy talking here, but of course they do. Even if his arm is a noodle, he's their best shot. If he come back, the Broncos will gladly take him, and hope his arm holds up. If he doesn't, it gets pretty interesting in Denver.

Demaryius Thomas: Hard to imagine the Broncos letting him go. He will be expecting top WR money, and while he may be a notch below the AJ Greens and Dez Bryant's of the world, he's gonna get that money. The Broncos biggest name among potential free agents, but I would argue their top priority is:

Terrance Knighton: Signed a short money deal two years ago, and might be the most important player in Denver's front 7. He's 28 years old, has never had a big money deal, and while he wants to stay in Denver, he's gonna cost.

Julius Thomas: Maybe the Broncos let him look around? I dunno. Was he a product of the system? Are his ankles made of cardboard? Perhaps. I will be interested to see how the Broncos value him.

The Broncos are in pretty good shape, they have some big free agents, but if they all want to stay, Denver can make it happen.

Major Contract Questions Facing the Broncos With or Without Peyton Manning

Posted on January 12, 2015 by Jason Fitzgerald
With the Broncos experiencing a fast playoff exit and many questions surrounding the future of Peyton Manning and where the team goes from here I wanted to quickly look at a few of the contracts I was getting questions about on Twitter.

Peyton Manning has a $21.5 million salary cap charge in 2015. That cap charge is made up of a $19 million salary and a $2.5 million prorated bonus charge. I can’t see any scenario under which Manning is released, but if he were to be released it would need to be done before March 9. On March 9 Manning’s $19 million salary becomes fully guaranteed. If Manning retires the guarantee does not matter.

If Manning retires or is released his “dead money” charge is just $5 million against the salary cap. The reason the number is so low is because the Broncos used a pay as you go structure with Manning due to his neck injury and the Broncos internal strategies with most contracts. This was very different than Manning’s last contract with Indianapolis in which Manning received a $20 million signing bonus. Manning made $58 million from Denver over the last three years.

Denver made a number of big signings last year in an attempt to fill any holes on the team, primarily on defense. Most of those players also signed team friendly deals that would allow the Broncos to gain salary cap space if they chose to go in a different direction and cut those players next season.

Aqib Talib has a $7 million cap charge but just $4 million in dead money if released. His cash salary is just $6 million which is very good value for the price. That salary will guarantee if he is on the roster three days after the start of free agency. TJ Ward has a $7.75 million cap hit and a $6.25 million cash salary. The cost to cut him is $3.75 million against the salary cap. I would be surprised if they moved on from him.

The harder contract to work with is the one of DeMarcus Ware. That was a win now at all costs kind of move. He has a $8.67 million cap number but would cost the Broncos $6.83 million against the cap to release. Of that $6.83 million, $3.5 million would be cash still owed to the player due to the large guarantee they gave to Ware. If he is on the roster 5 days into free agency he earns another $3.5 million in full guarantees. Ware finished the season with 10 sacks, but was largely invisible down the stretch. 7 of those 10 sacks came in the first 7 games and only 3 came after the mid point of the year.

While Denver locked up cornerback Chris Harris to a very team friendly contract this year they have a large number of pending contract decisions.

Linebacker Von Miller is entering the final year of his contract and will carry a $9.754 million cap charge. He finished with 14 sacks, though like Ware they came in bunches early in the season when the Broncos offense was humming along, and is a big money type player. He is always a suspension risk and that my also make a contract extension difficult. His salary is currently guaranteed for injury only and becomes fully guaranteed on the first day of the 2015 League Year.

Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is a free agent and one of the best receivers in the NFL, though if Sunday was his final day in a Broncos uniform it was not a good one. Top wide receivers are currently earning between $11 and $12 million a year, but if Manning is to retire and the Broncos will be moving to a young QB in the future Thomas’ value to the organization may not be as high as it was before. They can franchise Thomas and opt to trade him at a later date.

Tight end Julius Thomas did not have the kind of season that should get him huge money but he is also a free agent. My assumption is he will be over-valued on the market and placed in the $7 million a year range which I doubt Denver would want to commit. If they did a deal would have already been reached.

Wes Welker’s productivity dropped but he did play around 75% of the snaps for the Broncos and will get the chance to test free agency. He will likely be cheap, lower than the $6 million a season he is earning now, but those snaps need to be replaced if he goes.

Run stopper Terrance Knighton is also a free agent. He had been playing for just over $2 million a season and will likely receive between $4 and $5 in free agency.

Safety Rahim Moore played more snaps than anyone on the Broncos defense and will be an unrestricted free agent.

Guard Orlando Franklin has started all but one game in his four year career and needs to be re-signed. Playing with Manning always helps as seen by Zane Beadles $6 million per year deal signed last offseason. He would be no lower than $4.5 million or so to keep.

Center Will Montgomery signed a one year deal to be a jack of all trades lineman and now his contract is also up. He played in over 500 snaps this season. He is a low cost player if they want to keep him.

Even a number of depth players for Denver such as Virgil Green and Nate Irving are free agents

As I look over all these names the Broncos will have a tremendous amount of decisions to make this offseason. Even if Manning decides to stay they have 7 contributing free agents to decide on. If you throw Miller into the mix since he is nearing an extension it’s a tricky situation even if Manning stays. How long can you commit to this group in hopes of going for it one more year with Manning considering the way Manning faded down the stretch? Can you work everyone in under cap friendly deals for 2015 so that you can go out and hit free agency again to try to improve the team since it seems clear they will need more in 2015.

And if Manning retires do you just start selling off assets, give Brock Osweiler one chance with Thomas on the franchise tag, and then plan for the future? It’s going to be a very difficult decision for the Denver front office, one they probably realized they were really facing about 6 weeks ago when Manning started to look like a very old quarterback.
Click to expand...
http://overthecap.com/major-contract-questions-facing-broncos-without-peyton-manning/

 
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