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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 05:34 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated August 2014)

Yesterday, 08:37 PM

Bryce Brown: I think people tend to overrate his talent. The trend over his first 3 years has been his workload shrinking each season. He got beat out by Chris Polk in Philly, and then by Anthony Dixon in Buffalo. He has a chance right now with the injuries in front of him, but if he was going to be the RB of the future in Buffalo you'd think that they would've had him active on gamedays.

Le'Veon Bell: Missing a few games would be basically irrelevant for his ranking. The concern is with players who are likely to continue getting into trouble in the future, and Bell does not have much of a track record of bad decisions (unless you count the decision to play at 240 pounds).

Zac Stacy: Mason still has some question marks with pass blocking and ball security, and I thought that Stacy was solid last year. The Rams are talking about last week's playing time split as if it was a bit of a fluke, and Stacy will continue to be pretty significantly involved. If that's not true then he'll drop a lot more in these rankings. Actually, he probably should be a bit lower already.

Montee Ball: I've never been very high on his talent, but liked him a lot in fantasy when I expected him to have a couple years as Peyton Manning's top RB (see my comment here, for example). Now it looks like Hillman is a bit more likely to have that role this year. I still have Ball slightly ahead of Hillman because Ball (if Ball wins the job back) is more likely than Hillman (if Hillman keeps the job) to get the TDs in addition to the touches, and to keep the job next season.

Ryan Mathews: He has been a pretty good starting RB for most of his career. I think it's more likely than not that he'll lead the Chargers' backfield in touches once he's back, and be lead RB somewhere next season.

Ahmad Bradshaw: I see Bradshaw as fairly comparable to Rashad Jennings, in terms of their fantasy prospects (except for Jennings currently being out). Relatively old, strong starter for now, without the upside of Forte/Lynch/Foster, and with some heightened risk of injury or decline. Over the rest of this season Bradshaw is unlikely to see much of an increase in workload and will probably see a decline in TDs; next season there's some chance he'll leave the pretty ideal situation that he has in Indy.

Trent Richardson: He's looked better than last year, and has been particularly good in the passing game. I think at least some of his troubles were from being misused - he does better in a wide open offense than as a grind-it-out back in obvious running formations. He's just 24 and could still have a solid career in front of him, potentially on an elite offense.

Rookies: Mason, McKinnon, Oliver, and Crowell have moved up significantly since the offseason. Most of the other rookies have basically stayed put or dropped a little (except for some movement deep in the rankings, like Taliaferro). And no one has burst into the upper echelon, like Lacy & Gio did last year.

Quarterbacks: I'm focusing on one position at a time. I will say that I agree with Luck at #1, and I disagree with leaving Griffin off the list.
 


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated August 2014)

23 October 2014 - 10:32 PM

ZWK, great work man. Can you expand upon ranking Lamar Miller RB34? Looking good right now, no clear threat to touches, and 23 years old. I'm assuming you're thinking the situation he's in right now is temporary/ the Dolphins are going longer term through the 2015 draft, otherwise I'd think he'd be a lot higher up the list. 

 

You're right, I'm underrating Miller. A few good games after 2 disappointing seasons doesn't impress me all that much (especially when Moreno looked similarly good with his carries), and I wasn't super-high on him coming into the league. But his redraft value is probably up there with Jennings & Bradshaw, ahead of Oliver, and he has a decent shot at future value. He should at least be up at 28, maybe higher.


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated August 2014)

23 October 2014 - 06:27 PM

 

Martin is a boom or bust option. He hasn't looked that good over his last 10 games (stretching back to last season). But Forte also had a bit of a sophomore slump and recovered from it. If Martin has a couple big games, then he could quickly jump back into the conversation alongside the current top 6 (which would be a two tier jump in my rankings). If he doesn't show signs of life, then he'll keep sliding down the rankings past guys like Ingram & Vereen (a couple of guys who also had rough stretches, and who have never done anything like Martin did as a rookie). I liked Martin coming into the league, and the NFL did too, and he had a strong rookie year; I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.
 
That's why I have Martin where I do, bunched among some young unproven 2nd rounders who have some promise but virtually no NFL track record (<300 career rushing yards).

But forte didn't have a new regime that drafted their guy. Don't want to nitpick as you are clearly very good but that just screamed out to me. You may be right but I would much rather go in a different direction.

I think Martin is primed to lose his job this year.

 

 

I don't put that much weight on coaching staffs or competition. If a RB is good then he'll probably win the job.

 

Martin very well might lose his job this year. But Hyde & Michael haven't even won the job yet. With any of them you're gambling on upside.


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated August 2014)

23 October 2014 - 06:13 PM

Martin is a boom or bust option. He hasn't looked that good over his last 10 games (stretching back to last season). But Forte also had a bit of a sophomore slump and recovered from it. If Martin has a couple big games, then he could quickly jump back into the conversation alongside the current top 6 (which would be a two tier jump in my rankings). If he doesn't show signs of life, then he'll keep sliding down the rankings past guys like Ingram & Vereen (a couple of guys who also had rough stretches, and who have never done anything like Martin did as a rookie). I liked Martin coming into the league, and the NFL did too, and he had a strong rookie year; I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

 

That's why I have Martin where I do, bunched among some young unproven 2nd rounders who have some promise but virtually no NFL track record (<300 career rushing yards).


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated August 2014)

23 October 2014 - 04:53 PM

Updated RB rankings. Age as of 11/1/14. Prev shows my August 31 rankings; I also shared my top 12 at the beginning of October. Rankings assume no PPR, 24 starting RBs, about 250 position players rostered.

 

Tiers mean a lot here - there is quite a large drop from #6 (Lacy) to #10 (Ellington), and not that all huge a drop from #10 to #39 (West).

 

These rankings are a bit less polished than my offseason ones, which means that an additional 30 minutes of work on them would probably cause more changes now than would did then.

 

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    LeVeon Bell    PIT    22.7    (8)
2    2    LeSean McCoy    PHI    26.3    (1)
2    3    DeMarco Murray    DAL    26.7    (6)
2    4    Jamaal Charles    KC    27.9    (2)
2    5    Giovani Bernard    CIN    23.0    (5)
2    6    Eddie Lacy    GB    24.4    (3)
3    7    Matt Forte    CHI    28.9    (10)
3    8    Marshawn Lynch    SEA    28.6    (13)
3    9    Arian Foster    HOU    28.2    (21)
5    10    Andre Ellington    ARI    25.8    (17)
5    11    Alfred Morris    WAS    25.9    (12)
5    12    Carlos Hyde    SF    23.1    (15)
5    13    Doug Martin    TB    25.8    (4)
5    14    Christine Michael    SEA    24.0    (14)
5    15    Bishop Sankey    TEN    22.1    (20)
5    16    Adrian Peterson    MIN    29.6    (9)
5    17    Mark Ingram    NO    24.9    (30)
5    18    Tre Mason    STL    21.3    (29)
5    19    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    22.5    (36)
5    20    Ryan Mathews    SD    27.1    (16)
5    21    Montee Ball    DEN    23.9    (7)
5    22    Ben Tate    CLE    26.2    (24)
5    23    C.J. Spiller    BUF    27.3    (11)
5    24    Shane Vereen    NE    25.7    (22)
5    25    Trent Richardson    IND    24.3    (18)
5    26    Ronnie Hillman    DEN    23.2    (60)
6    27    Jeremy Hill    CIN    22.0    (28)
6    28    Zac Stacy    STL    23.6    (19)
6    29    Rashad Jennings    NYG    29.6    (27)
6    30    Ahmad Bradshaw    IND    28.7    (61)
6    31    Denard Robinson    JAX    24.1    (63)

6    32    Brandon Oliver    SD    23.5    (93)

6    33    Chris Ivory    NYJ    26.6    (49)

6    34    Lamar Miller    MIA    23.6    (38)
6    35    Charles Sims    TB    24.1    (41)
6    36    Joique Bell    DET    28.3    (31)
6    37    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    21.8    (69)
6    38    Justin Forsett    BAL    29.1    unr
6    39    Terrance West    CLE    23.8    (42)
7    40    Knile Davis    KC    23.1    (52)
7    41    Khiry Robinson    NO    24.9    (58)
7    42    Frank Gore    SF    31.5    (44)
7    43    Reggie Bush    DET    29.7    (25)
7    44    Andre Williams    NYG    22.2    (46)
7    45    Devonta Freeman    ATL    22.6    (35)
7    46    Toby Gerhart    JAX    27.6    (23)
7    47    Pierre Thomas    NO    29.9    (37)
7    48    Darren McFadden    OAK    27.2    (40)
7    49    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    27.6    (43)
8    50    Darren Sproles    PHI    31.4    (50)
8    51    Stevan Ridley    NE    25.8    (33)
8    52    Ray Rice    FA    27.8    (26)
8    53    Bernard Pierce    BAL    24.9    (34)
8    54    Knowshon Moreno    MIA    27.3    (39)
8    55    Fred Jackson    BUF    33.7    (54)
8    56    Bryce Brown    BUF    23.5    (48)
8    57    Steven Jackson    ATL    31.3    (45)
8    58    Chris Johnson    NYJ    29.1    (32)
8    59    Benny Cunningham    STL    24.3    (62)
8    60    Marcus Lattimore    SF    23.0    (47)
8    61    C.J. Anderson    DEN    23.7    (59)
8    62    Maurice Jones-Drew    OAK    29.6    (51)
9    63    Juwan Thompson    DEN    22.5    (86)

9    64    Antone Smith    ATL    29.1    unr
9    65    Lorenzo Taliaferro    BAL    22.9    (79)
9    66    Latavius Murray    OAK    23.7    (67)
9    67    Anthony Dixon    BUF    27.1    unr
9    68    Donald Brown    SD    27.6    (65)
9    69    Dri Archer    PIT    23.2    (57)
9    70    DeAngelo Williams    CAR    31.6    (55)
9    71    Bobby Rainey    TB    27.1    (84)
9    72    Lance Dunbar    DAL    24.8    (53)
9    73    Shonn Greene    TEN    29.2    (66)
9    74    Robert Turbin    SEA    24.9    (71)
9    75    Roy Helu    WAS    25.9    (74)
10    76    Brandon Bolden    NE    24.8    (89)
10    77    KaDeem Carey    CHI    22.0    (80)
10    78    Storm Johnson    JAX    22.3    (97)
10    79    Joseph Randle    DAL    22.9    (85)
10    80    Stepfan Taylor    ARI    23.4    (87)
10    81    Travaris Cadet    NO    25.8    (90)
10    82    Alfred Blue    HOU    23.5    (77)
10    83    Danny Woodhead    SD    29.9    (56)
10    84    LeGarrette Blount    PIT    27.9    (64)
10    85    Chris Polk    PHI    24.9    (70)
10    86    Vick Ballard    IND    24.3    (101)
10    87    James White    NE    22.8    (68)
10    88    DeAnthony Thomas    KC    21.8    (73)
10    89    Kendall Hunter    SF    25.2    (99)
 

D Murray, D Robinson, Bradshaw, and McKinnon are guys who I was high on in the offseason, so [insert gloating here]. On the other hand, I was also relatively high on David Wilson, and low on Le'Veon Bell. Robinson and McKinnon could still turn into busts, but their athleticism plus the performance that they've flashed (especially McKinnon) makes them pretty exciting prospects. Bradshaw is the same age as Forte, Lynch, and Foster, and has consistently performed when he's been on the field - this is his 5th straight year averaging over 75 YFS/g, and his YPC has been 4.5 or higher in every season except 2011. Bell looks legit as both a fantasy RB1 and an NFL runner (and pass catcher), and he's 22. I've come around on him.

 

Young guys have generally moved up the rankings since August, in part from some of them flashing skills but even more from attrition as some of the older win-now guys sliding down the rankings as they've shown that they actually won't help you very much at winning now. That why guys like Alfred Morris and Christine Michael seen their ranking stay stable (or even improve a bit), even though they've both been downgraded slightly in my eyes since the season started.

 

At first glance, Cleveland's 3 RBs have all been looking pretty good when they've played. But I think is about their strong offensive line than about them having a stacked RB corps. Crowell has jumped up in my rankings to a similar level as West, but West & Tate have basically stayed put in my eyes. (Tate benefits from the team's strong running game, but is hurt by the competition.)

 

Andre Williams has not looked very good this season, after an apparently strong preseason. It's even more striking after Rashad Jennings lit it up when he was healthy.

 

Gerhart's struggles might have been due to playing through an injury; he still has a chance to win his job back (or win the job elsewhere next year, if the Jags let him go). Fred Jackson looked good before he got injured, and is worth stashing for his playoff run. Knowshon Moreno has basically had one week of good news amidst a relentlessly bad offseason and season, but I think he's worth an IR stash for next year. I'd bet that Ray Rice has less than a 50% chance of ever playing another snap, but he still has significant upside - if it turns out that he doesn't suck, then his chances of a team eventually being willing to give him another chance are significantly higher. Hillman has won the Denver RB job for now, but it's not clear that the depth chart there is stabilized so Anderson & Thompson are still worth stashing.