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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 03:55 AM
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In Topic: Through 4 weeks, who is the league MVP? DPOY?

19 November 2014 - 03:38 AM

MVP: Rodgers (Manning)

DPOY: Watt

OROY: Evans (Benjamin, Bitonio, Martin, Watkins, Lewan)

DROY: Donald (Mack, Barr, Mosley)


In Topic: [Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects

19 November 2014 - 01:53 AM

The more I look at your metric here the more I like it Z. I think it does everything mine does, and improves on it. Any idea how far back there's first down data?

 

I get the data from cfbstats, which only goes back to 2008. Not sure if anyone else has data going farther back.

 

I like this RB metric in part because it's nice and simple. If I was trying to be maximally predictive I'd make some adjustments, like giving first downs less weight relative to TDs & 20-yard carries (the simple version that I've posted effectively gives first downs more weight than the other stats, since first downs are more common so they have a wider spread).

 

 

 

Here's my rough first look at this year's WR stats. These are the 20 guys with the best numbers (whether or not they're draft eligible).

 


BP/g Prod% Player          Team

3.3    51%    Rashard Higgins    Colorado State

 

This is going to be an interesting one to follow because he's putting up huge stats, but my sense is that he's a product of his QB more than anything. Garrett Grayson is having a phenomenal year and I'm really eager to see if he gets a Senior Bowl invite and winds up a high pick or if he's just a David Fales type of guy who thrives in college, but doesn't necessarily have the tools that NFL teams covet. I could see his draft position falling anywhere in the range from Garoppolo-Fales. Maybe a little higher if he blows up in postseason workouts.

 

Qualitatively, it seems to me like your list overvalues deep threats and undervalues possession receivers. I think we've had this discussion in the past. Players who have a dynamic teammate and are heavily utilized on screen passes seem unjustly punished. I think Marqise Lee was an example from previous years. This year you've got lots of guys listed there who excel at running vertical routes, but aren't necessarily that good at anything else. You did hit two of the genuine big names (Cooper and White) and another guy (Coleman) who is really coming on strong, albeit in a gimmicky offense. I wrote him up recently and saw some similarities with Golden Tate.

 

I do not see great depth in this WR class, but have seen a couple somewhat under-the-radar guys who might have decent NFL ceilings. Vince Mayle is having a big year at Washington State and has the big body that teams like. He's over-aged and I don't know if he really moves well enough to thrive at the next level. I'd put him down as an intriguing name to watch though. Whether you consider him a RB or WR, Tyreek Hill is an important wild card in the draft because of his insane speed matched with decent football skills. The NFL loves speed and Hill is maybe the fastest football player in the world right now, with genuine Olympic level burners. If he decides to come out, it's hard to envision NFL personnel people not falling in love and drafting him high after he rips a 4.2 at the combine.

 

 

You're right that the team-adjusted stats (like pct of team's passing yards) tend to hurt receivers who are teammates with other good receivers (though not Lee - he was the top WR in the country in 2012 by my numbers). That's especially true at this stage, where I don't have yards per target data yet. On the other hand, team-adjusted stats also help prevent receivers with a good QB (or a good offensive system) from being overrated. Higgins' production as a percentage of his team's passing offense is 6th in the country - he has accounted for 45% of Colorado State's passing yards, 53% of their passing touchdowns, and 55% of their 25+ yard passes.

 

My numbers do tend to favor deep threats over possession receivers. But there are other ways to do well in these numbers, including being a red zone threat and breaking big plays with YAC. And being a complete receiver who runs all sorts of routes, or a receiver who makes plays on screens, tends to help a player's numbers compared to merely being a deep threat. (That will be even more true if Greg Peshek publishes his WR stats again and I get to incorporate those numbers.)


In Topic: [Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects

18 November 2014 - 03:34 PM

Now some RB Stats, updating the numbers on last month's post. First Downs + TDs + 20-yard carries per attempt, with notable RBs bolded:

 

1T20/a    Player    Team    Yr
59.4%    Jhurell Pressley    New Mexico    JR
53.9%    Matt Breida    Ga South    SO
52.9%    Melvin Gordon    Wisconsin    JR
52.5%    Ray Lawry    ODU    FR
50.4%    Todd Gurley    Georgia    JR
49.6%    Elijah McGuire    La-Lafytte    SO
49.4%    Devon Johnson    Marshall    JR
48.8%    Kareem Hunt    Toledo    SO
47.6%    Aaron Green    TCU    JR
47.0%    Michael Gordon    Ark St    JR
45.4%    Nick Chubb    Georgia    FR
45.2%    James Conner    Pittsburgh    SO
44.9%    Breon Allen    ECU    SR
44.9%    Duke Johnson    Miami (Fl)    JR
43.3%    Samaje Perine    Oklahoma    FR
43.2%    Noah Copeland    Navy    SR
43.1%    Ameer Abdullah    Nebraska    SR
42.9%    Corey Clement    Wisconsin    SO
42.4%    Jeremy Langford    Mich St    SR
41.9%    Jonathan Williams    Arkansas    JR

 

Other notable RBs:

1T20/a    Player    Team    Yr
41.1%    Josh Robinson    Miss St    JR
40.7%    Ezekiel Elliott    Ohio State    SO
40.7%    Shock Linwood    Baylor    SO
39.3%    Alex Collins    Arkansas    SO
39.3%    Tevin Coleman    Indiana    JR
38.2%    Cameron Artis-Payne    Auburn    SR
35.3%    Mike Davis    S Carolina    JR
35.0%    David Cobb    Minnesota    SR
33.6%    Javorius Allen    USC    JR
31.5%    Jay Ajayi    Boise St    JR
31.1%    Kenneth Dixon    La Tech    JR
29.8%    T.J. Yeldon    Alabama    JR
29.3%    Leonard Fournette    LSU    FR
 

For comparison, most of last year's draft class ranged from 48% (Hyde) to 38% (Sims), except for Andre Williams at 33%.


In Topic: [Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects

18 November 2014 - 11:09 AM

Here's my rough first look at this year's WR stats. These are the 20 guys with the best numbers (whether or not they're draft eligible).

 

First column shows number of big plays per game, where a big play is a receiving TD or a 25-yard reception. Second column shows the percentage of the team's passing production that the player accounted for (adjusted for missed games), which is the average of: pct of team's passing yards, pct of team's passing TDs, pct of team's 25+ yard passes. The ranking is based on a few stats like these, similar to what I did in the offseason but much simpler.

 

BP/g Prod% Player          Team

3.3    51%    Rashard Higgins    Colorado State
3.5    38%    Corey Coleman    Baylor

2.3    51%    Amari Cooper    Alabama
2.3    53%    Sterling Shepard    Oklahoma
2.5    54%    Titus Davis    Central Michigan
2.4    46%    Corey Davis    Western Michigan
2.0    55%    Joshua McCain    Idaho

2.1    42%    Kevin White    West Virginia
2.1    44%    Keevan Lucas    Tulsa
1.8    52%    John Harris    Texas
1.5    54%    Tyler Boyd    Pittsburgh
2.0    45%    Leonte Carroo    Rutgers
1.9    48%    Teldrick Morgan    New Mexico State
2.0    43%    Tony Lippett    Michigan State
1.7    49%    Da'Ron Brown    Northern Illinois
1.9    41%    Nelson Spruce    Colorado
2.2    38%    Antonio Vaughan    Old Dominion
1.4    46%    DeAndre Smelter    Georgia Tech
1.9    37%    Nelson Agholor    USC
1.8    41%    Hunter Sharp    Utah State


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (RB & QB updated October 2014)

11 November 2014 - 01:42 AM

Hilton is 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards, so he can afford to lose a bit of his workload. The Luck offense is going to create a big enough pie to support him even if they add more weapons. Things look very good for him if he spends his career in Indy with Luck.

Harvin produced in Minnesota, and he seems to be producing now in New York (over 80 yfs/game). Locker room troubles add some risk but aren't a huge negative for a WR that performs well on the field. Flaming out in Seattle is obviously a bad sign, but he's still 26 and over 70 yfs/game for his career.

Kelvin Benjamin has relied on a high volume of targets in Carolina's barren receiving corps to get his numbers. His play has been uneven. He's going to need to improve as a receiver. Cooks has put up similar totals (with a couple fewer TDs) with better efficiency stats.

Josh Gordon: I realized that just after I posted my rankings that I had him too low. He should be up with Harvin & Hopkins.

If Davante Adams becomes one of Rodgers's top 2 targets, then he's likely to be a top 15 fantasy WR. He has several routes that could get him there: Cobb leaving town, Adams outplaying Cobb, Cobb or Nelson getting injured, age-related decline from Nelson. You might think that should make Nelson or Cobb get ranked lower, but the others receivers around them in the rankings have their own risks (everybody does); it's just that Adams happens to benefit from the risks facing two other WRs. Cobb's risk of leaving town is also priced into his ranking; if he was under contract long-term he'd be in tier 3 (probably ahead of Nelson, because of the age gap).

Rueben Randle: his ranking is based on my impression of his talent. His situation seems pretty average, looking long-term. It's a pretty good situation for redraft purposes, but he isn't doing much with it so far.

Stevie Johnson: Sometimes a team's WR3 has good per-target numbers because the QB doesn't throw it to him unless he's open (you call it the Patrick Crayton problem). Johnson's high YPRR shows that that isn't what's happening with him - he has good per-target numbers even though he's getting the ball often when he's on the field. And we know he can handle a larger role since he did it in Buffalo. Boldin is 34, and Davis isn't a target hog, so if Crabtree leaves there's a good chance that the opportunity will be there.

Jarvis Landry: I haven't looked into him that closely so I could be underrating him.

Steve Smith, Malcom Floyd, etc.: Old receivers who are producing now are fairly valuable (relative to prospects with potential future value) because of the value of a roster space. You get their production for a little while, and then when they stop producing you can cut them and pick up a prospect then.