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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 02:14 AM
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In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (RB & QB updated October 2014)

Yesterday, 08:34 PM

Sure you can be ecstatic when guys like Newton/Manziel/RGIII run around for 100 yards 1 week, and that is exactly what puts them as overall top5 QB's at years end, but the inconsistencies are there for you to worry and second guess who should be behind him and guys like that.  Give me a consistent 18-22 point game from Ryan (with a healthy o-line), Rivers, Brees, hell even Cutler over a guy who goes 19.14, 12.7, 12.58, 15.10, 34.06, 14.3, 5.24, 12.23 any day of the week.

 

Thats 13.06 points per week on average without the high 34 point.  Including that high game, bumps him up to 15.68 per game.  *not including week 1 he missed.  Give him 13.06 for week 1 lets say and that puts him at QB11 for the year instead of 15.  *All based on 1point for 25passing yards, 4 TD, -2 INT, 1p for 10 rushing yards, 6p rush TD which I think is standard.

 

I'm beginning to want absolutely no part of Newton or guys who are similar and rely on rushing and can't throw as well, for pure inconsistency.  

 

Manziel on the other hand is completely off my list to ever own.  

Consistency is pretty much irrelevant. The guy who scores more fantasy points will help you win more head-to-head games over the course of a season even if he's much less consistent, unless they're within a couple fantasy points of each other for the entire season. I ran some numbers on this at some point, and the result was something like: over the course of a season, an impossibly consistent player who scores the exact same amount every game is worth about 5 fantasy points more than a wildly inconsistent player who only has huge games & duds.

 

Also, if there is a difference in consistency between running QBs and pocket passers, it's pretty small. Since the start of 2012, Newton has had 5 games where he scored under 10 fantasy points (he's averaged 18.8 ppg). Brady has 5 (and 18.3 ppg). Ryan has 5 (and 17.3 ppg). Stafford has 6 (and 17.0 ppg). Wilson has 5 (and 17.9 ppg). Kaepernick has 4 since he took over as starter in mid 2012 (which puts him on pace for 5), and 17.4 ppg. Manning, Brees, and Rodgers have mostly avoided single digit games (they have only 5 between them), but they're also putting up bigger numbers across the board (about 3 ppg better than Newton, on the whole).


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (RB & QB updated October 2014)

Yesterday, 06:56 PM

The Newton & Manziel questions basically have the same answer, which is that running is worth a ton for fantasy QBs. 5000/35 passing is worth the same as 3500/26 passing and 600/6 rushing.

 

Newton has been a top 5 fantasy QB in each of his first 3 seasons. He's pretty average as a passer (FO has his DVOA between -1.0% and +2.0% in each of his 4 seasons, not including yesterday's game), but dude can run. He's averaging 654/8.6 per 16 games for his career (633/6.4 if you exclude his rookie year). He's good enough as an NFL QB to keep his job, and big enough to hold up pretty well to the hits (and to keep getting a significant chunk of the team's rushing TDs). This year his numbers are down for a few reasons which I don't expect to persist for the rest of his career. The first few games he was running less because of injuries, but now he's running again (which is a good sign for his usage in the future, that they want him running). The past few games have been pretty ugly for him & that offense, but a big part of that has been the line: PFF has Carolina as the worst pass blocking team in the NFL. If his passing doesn't improve, then he'll gradually decline from a mid-range QB1 to a low-end QB1 over the next several years as he ages and runs less. But QBs his age often see improvements in passing, and he hasn't exactly had the best set of weapons to throw to.

 

Manziel is another guy who could run for 600 yards a year, and Cleveland liked him enough as an NFL QB to take him in the first round. His college passing stats were also not far behind Bortles & Bridgewater (including splits like deep passing & passing under pressure - see the various stats which I linked here).


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (RB & QB updated October 2014)

Yesterday, 04:20 PM

QB rankings seem to be in demand, so here's a supply. I also have midseason RB rankings here, but no published updates to my preseason WR & TE rankings.

Age as of 11/1/14. Prev from August 31. Rankings assume 12 starting QBs, and about 250 position players rostered.

 

Tr   Rk   Player      Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Andrew Luck    IND    25.2    (3)
2    2    Aaron Rodgers    GB    31.9    (1)
3    3    Cam Newton    CAR    25.5    (2)
3    4    Russell Wilson    SEA    26.0    (6)
3    5    Drew Brees    NO    35.8    (5)
3    6    Colin Kaepernick    SF    27.0    (8)
3    7    Robert Griffin III    WAS    24.7    (4)
3    8    Philip Rivers    SD    32.9    (13)
4    9    Matthew Stafford    DET    26.8    (7)

4    10    Peyton Manning    DEN    38.6    (11)
4    11    Matt Ryan    ATL    29.5    (10)
4    12    Tom Brady    NE    37.3    (14)
4    13    Nick Foles    PHI    25.8    (9)
4    14    Tony Romo    DAL    34.6    (12)
5    15    Johnny Manziel    CLE    21.9    (15)
5    16    Teddy Bridgewater    MIN    22.0    (18)
5    17    Blake Bortles    JAX    22.9    (17)
5    18    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    33.7    (20)
5    19    Jay Cutler    CHI    31.5    (19)
5    20    Ryan Tannehill    MIA    26.3    (16)
6    21    Andy Dalton    CIN    27.0    (22)
6    22    Derek Carr    OAK    23.6    (23)
6    23    Joe Flacco    BAL    29.8    (31)
6    24    Eli Manning    NYG    33.9    (27)
6    25    Carson Palmer    ARI    34.9    (34)
6    26    Zach Mettenberger    TEN    23.3    (38)
6    27    Michael Vick    PHI    34.4    (28)
6    28    Austin Davis    STL    25.4    unr
6    29    Geno Smith    NYJ    24.1    (21)
6    30    Sam Bradford    STL    27.0    (24)
7    31    Jimmy Garoppolo    NE    23.0    (29)
7    32    Alex Smith    KC    32.6    (32)
7    33    Brock Osweiler    DEN    24.0    (30)
7    34    Mike Glennon    TB    24.9    (35)
7    35    Ryan Fitzpatrick    HOU    32.0    (36)
7    36    Kyle Orton    BUF    32.0    (44)
7    37    EJ Manuel    BUF    24.6    (26)
8    38    Ryan Mallett    HOU    26.4    (39)
8    39    Jimmy Clausen    CHI    27.1    (46)
8    40    Ryan Nassib    NYG    24.7    (37)
8    41    Kirk Cousins    WAS    26.2    (49)
8    42    Jake Locker    TEN    26.4    (25)
8    43    Mark Sanchez    PHI    28.0    (41)
8    44    Logan Thomas    ARI    23.4    (42)
8    45    Brian Hoyer    CLE    29.1    (40)
8    46    Tom Savage    HOU    24.5    (47)
 

The QB position is the most stable and predictable in fantasy, so not a ton of movement here.

Andrew Luck vaults to #1, and a tier of his own, as his performance on the field finally matches his reputation as a prospect. He has a 6+ year age gap on all of the other guys at the top of this year's fantasy rankings.

Rodgers holds steady in value relative to everyone else, but gets leapfrogged by Luck.

Griffin is one of the big fallers, but probably less in my rankings than in most. Three main concerns have come up with him (in declining order of importance): another injury raising further concerns about his durability (and his future usage as a runner), chatter about him not looking that good / Gruden not liking him, and 1.1 games of meh performance (similar to last year) before his injury. But fantasy QB is all about upside, and RG3 still has it, so he hasn't fallen that far. He may be system dependent, but I'll take a bet on him finding his way into the right system. He may be injury-prone, but I'll take a bet on him staying healthy. He's 24 with demonstrated top 5 upside - I'll take that over someone who is a safe bet to be a borderline QB1/QB2, or over someone in his mid 30s. He has a significant chance of busting, but the gap in fantasy value between Donovan McNabb's career and Eli Manning's is significantly larger than the gap between Eli Manning and Kyle Boller.

Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski are both pretty good football players, and their teams' passing offense hasn't been as good when they weren't on the field at 100%. This observation works against Stafford, since it suggests that he won't be putting up big fantasy numbers much past age 30. But it works in favor of Brady, since it explains his inconsistent (and on average not-so-hot) performance over the past year and a half in a way that leaves us optimistic for the next couple years.

A lot of good QBs have been struggling a bit throwing the ball, including Newton, Brees, Wilson, and Foles. Foles is hurt the most by this, since he had the shortest track record of good performance. Brees is hurt the second-most, since he has the shortest shelf life and needs to have a sizeable gap on the pack in order to justify his high ranking at this age. Newton and Wilson just get very slight downgrades, which don't show up in the rankings (though Newton has lost his tier gap on the QBs behind him).

Manning and Rivers are both lighting it up, but have limited room to rise because of their age.

 

Romo's ranking is assuming that his recent injury isn't serious.

Three of the four early-drafted rookies have won the starting job, but have been mediocre or worse on the field. The fourth is still in waiting. The net result is basically no effect on their rankings. Bortles, who has done the worst, slips slightly behind Bridgewater.

Tannehill slips down the rankings as more time passes without him taking a step up from averageish.

Flacco, Eli, and Palmer are looking like the last of the solid QB2s who you could start this year if you've run into some QB trouble and want to deal with it on the cheap, and Vick seems poised to join them.

I don't know any great tricks for spotting the next Brady or Romo. The best way to land someone like that, I think, is to look to roster any QB for his first several starts (as long as the price is reasonable, and the roster space is available). Right now that's Mettenberger and Austin Davis (though Davis is now 7 games in, and off the pace you'd expect from a surprise superstar). Someone like Garoppolo is a better prospect than them, but these rankings assume a league where it's costly to have a guy sitting in a roster space for years while you wait.

Tiers 7-8 are guys I'd rather not roster. The ones who are current NFL starters are worth owning if you might need someone to start a game for you (or if QB market prices in your league make stopgap QBs expensive). The prospects are only worth rostering in deeper leagues where you have the space (or if QBs are extra-valuable in your league). WRs, RBs, and TEs are much better for churning, because things change much more quickly there.

Locker and Manuel seem to have been given up on by their NFL teams, which puts them into the QB tiers that I'd rather not roster in leagues this size. I wouldn't write them off completely in deeper leagues because there's still some shot at a reversal of fortune. Geno seems poised to join them, but is probably worth hanging on to for another week or two to see how this plays out.


In Topic: Mark Ingram

Yesterday, 01:23 PM

PFF has Ingram as responsible for 1 QB hit, no sacks or hurries, this week. Negative pass blocking grade this week, average pass blocking grade on the season.


In Topic: Through 4 weeks, who is the league MVP? DPOY?

27 October 2014 - 06:28 PM

In my opinion, PFF's run blocking grades are the best stat available for comparing teams' run blocking. They're the only publicly available stat which is based on watching each play (and not just the play-by-play data), which is pretty important if you're trying to disentangle a RB from his blockers.

 

PFF's pass blocking grades are probably the best single stat for comparing teams' pass blocking, although that one is a closer call. You can also get a pretty good picture by looking both at how long the QB holds the ball and the rate of sacks+hits+hurries (these stats also come from PFF; FO publishes versions of them but doesn't update them weekly or publish the complete dataset).