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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 01:33 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Dynasty QB Stashes...

Yesterday, 07:48 PM

 

(Things are different in a 2 QB league or with very deep rosters. Also, rostering a low-upside veteran who will never see your starting lineup, like Chad Henne as your QB4, is an even worse idea than rostering a decent prospect like Osweiler or Nassib.)

 

In general I find that trades in superflex or 2QB leagues are based on need not hope. That is, if someone's QB2 goes down and Henne is still starting, it will be easier to get modest value in trade for him than a backup with little chance of starting any time soon. Holding Henne and Fitzpatrick both works as a trade chip (and one that's easy to let go if you find someone with need) and reduces the pool of QBs available. If you're not prioritizing Kyle Orton in a 2QB dynasty right now, you're letting a potential trade chip slip away. Sure he will never start for you, but that doesn't mean you want him starting (or providing depth) for someone else. I would prefer a solid stopgap like Orton in Buffalo, Weeden in Dallas, Clausen in Chicago, or Tarvaris in Seattle, over a "what if" prospect like Griffin, Savage, Kellen Moore, Aaron Murray, for a lot of the reasons you gave in your post, that most of the "what if"s are "probably never"s.

 

That paragraph was unclear - I intended to say that rostering Henne in a 1 QB league is a terrible idea. I was agreeing with Adam's point that rostering low-upside veteran QBs is a bad idea in standard leagues, despite disagreeing with his claim that rostering non-pedigree QB prospects is a good idea. Fitzpatrick or Nassib? The answer is neither (in start 1 QB leagues, with 250ish position players rostered).

 

In a 2 QB leagues the calculation is very different, and there are probably 50+ QBs worth rostering (including all 32 starters).


In Topic: Dynasty QB Stashes...

Yesterday, 06:46 PM

I'm generally not a fan of stashing backup QBs in standard size dynasty leagues, unless they were drafted in the first round or early second (or if they run well).

 

If you look at where the top fantasy quarterbacks have come from, most of them were top 40 picks in the NFL draft. That includes 12 of the top 16 QBs in redraft ADP this year, and 67% of all QB VBD since 1988 (and this 67% level has stayed pretty steady over that time). QB is extremely top-heavy, and most of the guys at the top were identified as top prospects coming out of college.

 

Top fantasy QBs have included a ton of early first round picks, a fair number of mid-to-late first rounders, a bunch of early second rounders (Kaepernick, Brees, Favre, Esiason, Cunningham), and then a smattering of guys who went during the rest of the draft or who went undrafted (Brady, Romo, etc.). There seems to be a pretty rapid dropoff after pick 40 - picks 41-90 do not really stand out from picks 91+ in terms of quality (although Wilson & Foles have hit recently).

 

There presumably is not a sudden sharp cutoff between picks 40 & 41, but I can make up a theory which fits the observed pattern that pick 35 is notably different from pick 55. A QB who makes it past the early 2nd has been passed on twice by all of the QB-needy teams with early picks, which is not a good sign.

 

So, my approach to QBs prospects who weren't drafted in the top 40 or 50 picks: Any QB who is about to get one of his first few starts is probably worth rostering to see what he does. But I'd rather not fill up a roster spot for years waiting for a not-drafted-early QB prospect to get his shot.

 

(Things are different in a 2 QB league or with very deep rosters. Also, rostering a low-upside veteran who will never see your starting lineup, like Chad Henne as your QB4, is an even worse idea than rostering a decent prospect like Osweiler or Nassib.)


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated August 2014)

Yesterday, 01:58 PM

Thanks for the rankings Zwk!  What are your thoughts on Hopkins?  He's a little lower on the wr list than I expected him to be.  

 

Hopkins is pretty much right where I had him a year ago. His rookie year was not very informative. Maybe just a slight moderation of his possibilities - a bit less likely to be a bust, and also a bit less likely to be a top 5 WR. A year ago I liked him slightly more than a generic "late first round receiver".


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated August 2014)

Yesterday, 01:21 PM

I love ya ZWK, I really do, but this is just glaring...

 

121   Mohamed Sanu    CIN

 

I just can't wrap my head around why he could be the second to last ranked WR in dynasty.

Looking at the list, I move him up a minimum of 40 spots.

 

You're probably right that 121 is a little too low. I think I didn't update after Jones's suspension. Sanu might be worth rostering for a few weeks, on the principle that he has an opportunity and anything can happen.

 

I'm optimistic about him, though - he's a low-upside possession receiver. His preseason TD against the Jets was his first 40-yard reception since 2009. He was one of only a handful of receivers to average less than 1 yard per route run last year, with numbers that were eerily similar to Jason Avant's.


In Topic: Shark moves against drafters who "fill in their starting lineups

Yesterday, 10:41 AM

I'd be a little more eager than usual to draft a top 3 QB or TE early.

 

If everyone is going to be reaching on TEs 6-12, then your options are to draft a top TE early around where they should go, to reach on one of TE 6-12, or to wait and get a TE outside the top 12. The middle option (reaching on a low-end starter) is a bad one, and the last option leaves you weak at one position compared to everyone else (which is sometimes worth doing, but is better avoided if you can). So getting a high-end starter early is more attractive than usual.

 

Taking a QB and/or TE early may leave you weaker at WR, but you can make up for that by drafting a bunch of good WRs while everyone else is filling out their lineups.