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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 10:13 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Mid round QBs, who are you eyeing?

23 July 2014 - 07:28 PM

RG3. If I miss him, then Cam or Kaep, or wait and get whoever out of the top 16 (likely Wilson, Rivers, Cutler, or Roethlisberger).


In Topic: Why is everyone sleeping on Rashad Jennings?

23 July 2014 - 06:36 PM

I'm surprised that they're planning on using Andre Williams in short yardage, since he was actually really bad at converting those plays in college. He had a bad conversion rate on 3rd & 3 or less, a bad TD rate on carries in the red zone, and low yards after contact in traffic. His strengths were breaking the big runs, and breaking tackles in space once he had a head of steam. He was a boom or bust runner with a pretty low success rate - there were way too many plays where he just ran into a guy at the line of scrimmage, with a violent collision but a minimal gain after contact.

 

Here are the short yardage numbers for 2012-2013 for 11 RBs in this draft class, with data from cfbstats. They're sorted by 3rd & short success rate, which equals first downs + TDs / attempts on 3rd down with 1-3 yards to go. (cfbstats counts goal-to-go TDs as a TD but not a first down, while longer TDs count as both a TD and first down; I've decided to double-count some TDs instead of leaving them all out.) I've also included a column with the red zone success rate (TDs/attempts).

 

3rd SR  RZ      Player            (3rd FD+TD/att)
108%    24%    Jeremy Hill    (14/13) 
90%     31%    Tre Mason    (35/39) 
87%     28%    Bishop Sankey    (41/47) 
85%     27%    Storm Johnson    (11/13) 
84%     26%    Ka'Deem Carey    (42/50) 
79%     33%    Devonta Freeman    (11/14) 
75%     41%    Carlos Hyde    (21/28) 
72%     32%    James White    (18/25) 
68%     24%    Charles Sims    (15/22) 
54%     36%    Lache Seastrunk    (7/13) 
50%     13%    Andre Williams    (16/32) 


In Topic: RB Production by Round Drafted : Ever been analysis done?

22 July 2014 - 01:30 PM

To be clear what i'm referring to is NFL Draft position in relation to subsequent fantasy output 

Me too.


In Topic: RB Production by Round Drafted : Ever been analysis done?

22 July 2014 - 12:13 PM

I've run the numbers on VBD by draft position by round (more numbers in this spreadsheet) and by pick (more numbers in this spreadsheet).


In Topic: The 2014 K Thread

21 July 2014 - 10:50 PM

 

In preparation for a draft-only league, I went through and rated each team's kicker based on their job security. Here's what I have, where the number is intended to be something like the probability that the kicker will have the job all season (barring injury):

...

0.85    Graham, Shayne NOS PK 
...

Anyone look out of place in this list? (Especially guys who I have below 0.90 who should be above 0.90, or vice versa.)

 

I think Graham is a pretty good sleeper pick at K this year (along with the Detroit rook). Kind of wondering why you have him ranked so low, is the idea that he could be missing kicks as the year wears on?  Because Dimkus shouldn't be ready to challenge him.

 

The kicker who wins the Saints job should be a nice fantasy player to have, but that's not what these ratings are about. I'm just trying to estimate how likely each kicker is to win their team's job. Graham has bounced around the league the past few years, and my sense is that Dimke is there to compete with him for the job (not just to be a camp leg). Graham is obviously the favorite to win that competition, but it does look like a genuine competition.