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Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 01:31 AM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: The 2014 K (kickers) Thread

Yesterday, 02:09 PM

In preparation for a draft-only league, I went through and rated each team's kicker based on their job security. Here's what I have, where the number is intended to be something like the probability that the kicker will have the job all season (barring injury):


1.0    Dawson, Phil SFO PK 
1.0    Gould, Robbie CHI PK 
1.0    Prater, Matt DEN PK SUSPENDED
1.0    Bailey, Dan DAL PK 
1.0    Scobee, Josh JAC PK  
1.0    Folk, Nick NYJ PK 
1.0    Gano, Graham CAR PK 
1.0    Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK 
1.0    Zuerlein, Greg STL PK 
1.0    Tucker, Justin BAL PK 
1.0    Hauschka, Steven SEA PK 
0.95    Nugent, Mike CIN PK 
0.95    Cundiff, Billy CLE PK 
0.95    Novak, Nick SDC PK 
0.95    Vinatieri, Adam IND PK 
0.95    Sturgis, Caleb MIA PK 
0.95    Suisham, Shaun PIT PK 
0.95    Walsh, Blair MIN PK 
0.90    Barth, Connor TBB PK CUT
0.90    Bryant, Matt ATL PK 
0.90    Brown, Josh NYG PK 
0.90    Crosby, Mason GBP PK 
0.90    Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK 
0.85    Carpenter, Dan BUF PK 
0.85    Feely, Jay ARI PK  CUT
0.85    Graham, Shayne NOS PK  CUT
0.80    Succop, Ryan KCC PK  CUT
0.80    Freese, Nate DET PK 
0.70    Henery, Alex PHI PK  CUT
0.70    Bullock, Randy HOU PK 
0.65    Forbath, Kai WAS PK 
0.50    Bonani, Maikon TEN PK  CUT

Anyone look out of place in this list? (Especially guys who I have below 0.90 who should be above 0.90, or vice versa.)


(Cuts added above in bold).


Looks like I did pretty well with the ranking here, although more of the frontrunners got cut than I expected. Prater's suspension is the only woe to hit the 18 guys who I rated 0.95 or higher, and the 9 guys who I rated 0.85 or lower accounted for 5 of the 6 cuts.


There were 4 guys who others in this thread said I was too low on (Feely, Graham, Succop, Carpenter); 3 of them got cut.

In Topic: Using Vegas odds to stream defenses?

29 August 2014 - 08:04 PM

It's one useful source of information, but keep in mind that most fantasy defense scoring comes from sacks & turnovers.

In Topic: VBD Baseline Questions

29 August 2014 - 12:24 PM

What about using "best available in the 12th round" for a snake draft, or "best available for $1" for an auction?

In Topic: How to tell if you drafted an awesome or crappy team:

28 August 2014 - 03:29 PM

I do agree with others about Rate-My-Team being off. I did a mock yesterday and it told me my WRs were weak as a whole, yet when it went into an individual breakdown on each one, it talked about how they were all great values and good WR2, WR3 and WR4. So how could I have no depth, yet be complimented on the players?


QBs are definitely off on there. I haven't had it say it likes my QB unless I grab Manning, Brees or Rodgers. Then it always says that Dodds advocates waiting on QBs, but I should've taken one sooner. So which is it?

If you don't have a top 3 QB then you are below average at QB. Last year's top 12 QBs averaged 353 points for the season. QB4 (Stafford) scored 348 points. Less than the average. That happened because it's a stud's game: Manning & Brees accounted for more than half of the QB VBD.


Looking forward to this year it's even worse, because no one outside the top 3 has that great a chance to finish in the top 5 QBs. Luck has a decent shot at it, Stafford has a decent shot at it, Brady has a decent shot at it it, and so do about 10 other guys.

In Topic: Why No Love Part II: Greg Jennings...?

27 August 2014 - 09:52 PM

I love Jennings in best ball leagues (and other draft only formats like Anarchy), because he's a relatively safe bet to at least be a top 50 WR, plus he has decent upside. In leagues where solid WR4 numbers are actually valuable that is very nice to have. Jennings is actually my most drafted player in those formats (tied with the Buffalo defense).


I'm less excited about him in standard leagues. I'd rather buy the upside of someone like Britt.