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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 02:22 PM
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In Topic: ZWK's 2015 Prospect Analysis

25 January 2015 - 09:45 PM

 

I really like Tevin Coleman, his body type and running style is comparable to some amazing rbs, foster, bell, murray notably. Evan silva and a few others seemed pretty unimpressed, comped him to felix jones, thoughts?

 

I don't see a lot of Bell or Felix in his game.

 

For me Coleman is a tall and lean, but muscular sprinter type. Physically, he is built similarly to guys like Murray, Gordon, and Peterson. Going back a bit, Jerious Norwood is another player who comes to mind, though I think Coleman is more powerful than he was.

 

The big issue that I see with his running style is that he isn't very elusive. He's sort of like Andre Williams in the sense that he does his best work when he can get into a big lane and take advantage of his long strides, but struggles to evade or create his own yards when working in tight spaces. He can lower his shoulder and run with some power, but he doesn't have a lot of innate lower body mass or leg drive to naturally break tackles.

 

I'm not super high on him, but his stats were awesome on a junk team and you can't write him off completely.

 

 

I basically agree with EBF here. Coleman is a straight-line runner who can run through some arm tackles if defenders are out of position, but (unlike Felix) he doesn't have much shiftiness to beat a second-level defender who is in position. He's probably the most boom-or-bust runner in this class (Andre Williams had that honor last year) - he can take it to the house if he has a lane, but he also has a lot of carries where he runs into traffic and gets taken down. You can see this mix in the Ohio State game - a few big runs, but also a ton of plays where he made nothing out of nothing.

 

 

David Cobb

Mike Davis

Josh Robinson

 

At first glance they look (somewhat) similar by the numbers only.  Any film-watchers want to compare and contrast?

 

I'd say that Robinson is the niftiest runner of the bunch, good at picking his way through traffic, and very good balance. He's a guy that you need to wrap up or else he'll bounce off and keep going.

 

Cobb is the second best of the three in that respect. He fights hard against being tackled, spinning/squirming/contorting so they can't bring him down cleanly & he can pick up extra yardage.

 

Davis probably has the best burst of the three. There is less that stands out about his running style.

 

 

 

RB Update:
Here is the resulting RB leaderboard (including non-draft-eligible players; previous leaderboard here):
...

I thought David Johnson would get some love after a solid Senior Bowl. 

http://www.nfl.com/n...to-charles-sims

 

 

Northern Iowa is FCS, so I don't have data on David Johnson. I did track elusiveness numbers for him, which are pretty good but not great (and against weak competition).


In Topic: Most Disappointing Career Ever

25 January 2015 - 07:40 PM

Greg Cook. 5th player taken in the 1969 draft, led the league in passer rating (and various other stats) as a rookie, but a torn rotator cuff cost him his career. And he tore it in week 3 of the season, and had his big year while playing through it.


In Topic: ZWK's 2015 Prospect Analysis

24 January 2015 - 08:34 PM

RB Update:

After charting a couple games for each of them, Nick Chubb and Josh Robinson are rivaling Eddie Lacy for the best Hard to Tackle Rating in the 4 years that I've been charting. They actually both have higher ratings than Lacy right now, but on smallish sample sizes (less than 50 touches). Chubb's game against Auburn is the best game that I've watched in terms of broken tackles & yards after contact.

 

Chubb & Robinson both look short, stocky, slippery, and powerful, bouncing off guys and running through arm tackles. I'm worried that Robinson is kinda slow / lacking in burst (he gets caught from behind a lot). I don't have that worry about Chubb. Chubb's elusiveness numbers (along with the faster estimated 40 times that I'm giving him based on his 100m time) vault him to the #1 RB prospect by my numbers (across all years). Robinson rises to #4, behind Chubb, Duke Johnson, and Todd Gurley.

My updated elusiveness numbers are in this spreadsheet. For this draft class, I'm hoping to find more game cutups of Robinson, Tevin Coleman, Cameron Artis-Payne, Jeremy Langford, Michael Dyer, and Matt Jones. I'm also curious about some of the guys in future draft classes, including Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Samaje Perine, Elijah McGuire, Royce Freeman, Kenneth Dixon, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette. (Kareem Hunt looked really good in the one game I've seen, but I'm wondering if the Arkansas State defense is just terrible.)

I've also put together a spreadsheet with many of the RB stats that I use in my ratings. Who broke off more 20+ yard runs (per non-red-zone attempt), Tevin Coleman or Todd Gurley? Who picked up more first downs per 1st down carry, Josh Robinson or Jeremy Langford? How do Ezekiel Elliott and Samaje Perine compare at converting 3rd & short? Jay Ajayi & Duke Johnson both had a bunch of receiving yards, but who had a higher yards per target? The answers are in the spreadsheet. (Note that the "rating" in that spreadsheet is based on a single season's stats, so it doesn't quite match the rating that I'm using for my ranking here, which also includes previous years' stats.)

My RB stats now include the full season, bowl games included. I've also tinkered a bit with the formula for their overall rating (including adding the stat first downs per 1st down carry). I've updated a few players heights & weights (to match the numbers from the Senior Bowl weighin), I've added ages for a few more players, and (as described here) I've updated a few players' estimated 40 times based on their 100m times.

Here is the resulting RB leaderboard (including non-draft-eligible players; previous leaderboard here):

FR    Nick Chubb    Georgia
        
JR    Duke Johnson    Miami (Fl)
JR    Todd Gurley    Georgia
        
JR    Josh Robinson    Miss St
FR    Samaje Perine    Oklahoma
SR    Karlos Williams    FSU
JR    Jay Ajayi    Boise St
SO    Ezekiel Elliott    Ohio State
JR    Melvin Gordon    Wisconsin
SR    Ameer Abdullah    Nebraska
JR    Tevin Coleman    Indiana
        
JR    Byron Marshall    Oregon
JR    Mike Davis    S Carolina
JR    T.J. Yeldon    Alabama
SO    Elijah McGuire    La-Lafytte
FR    Royce Freeman    Oregon
SR    David Cobb    Minnesota
JR    Kenneth Dixon    La Tech
        
SO    Alex Collins    Arkansas
JR    Jonathan Williams    Arkansas
JR    D.J. Foster    Ariz St
SO    Kareem Hunt    Toledo
SO    Derrick Henry    Alabama
SO    Shock Linwood    Baylor
FR    Leonard Fournette    LSU
SR    Cameron Artis-Payne    Auburn
SR    Jeremy Langford    Mich St
JR    Devon Johnson    Marshall
SR    Corey Grant    Auburn
SR    Noah Copeland    Navy

Here are the main players moving up since last time. Because of faster estimated 40 times (due to fast 100m times): Chubb, Gurley, Coleman, Elliott, and Marshall. Because of good elusiveness on video: Chubb, Robinson, and Hunt. Because of good stats (either in bowl games or tweaks to my formula) Elliott and Marshall.


In Topic: Is Nicks now just a mediocre fantasy WR?

23 January 2015 - 01:31 AM

Nicks averaged only 6.0 yards per target this year, which was last among Colts players with at least 25 targets.

 

YPT  Player

10.3   T.Y. Hilton 
9.1    Donte Moncrief 
8.4    Coby Fleener 
7.9    Dwayne Allen 
6.7    Trent Richardson 
6.7    Reggie Wayne 
6.7    Dan Herron 
6.4    Ahmad Bradshaw 
6.0    Hakeem Nicks 


In Topic: [Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects

12 January 2015 - 07:24 PM

Can we get a top 30 going on this thread?

 

If I take my generic rookie rankings formula for a non-PPR league, and plug in CBS's predraft rankings as the draft picks, then this is the leaderboard that I get:

 

VBD  Pos    Player              Pick 

221    QB    Marcus Mariota    1 
190    RB    Melvin Gordon    21 
169    WR    Amari Cooper    5 
148    WR    DeVante Parker    11 
137    QB    Jameis Winston    3 
133    WR    Kevin White    16 
125    RB    Todd Gurley    34 
117    WR    Dorial Green-Beckham    22 
103    WR    Jaelen Strong    27 
92    WR    Devin Funchess    31 
87    RB    Ameer Abdullah    46 
81    RB    Tevin Coleman    54 
80    RB    Duke Johnson    58 
79    RB    Jay Ajayi    61 
75    RB    T.J. Yeldon    71 
70    WR    Sammie Coates    40 
69    QB    Brett Hundley    28 
68    RB    Mike Davis    81 
66    RB    Javorius Allen    88 
60    WR    Josh Harper    51 
57    WR    Ty Montgomery    59 
55    WR    Nelson Agholor    65 
53    WR    Justin Hardy    69 
53    RB    Cameron Artis-Payne    104 
50    WR    Rashad Greene    75 
47    WR    Tyler Lockett    84 
45    TE    Maxx Williams    45 
41    RB    David Cobb    115 
38    WR    Breshad Perriman    96 
38    RB    Jeremy Langford    117 
36    WR    Tony Lippett    98 
33    TE    Clive Walford    70 
27    TE    Nick O'Leary    90 
27    WR    Vince Mayle    109 
24    RB    Matt Jones    130 
21    TE    Ben Koyack    103 
 

In PPR leagues, Cooper & Gordon move up to 1 & 2, while Mariota & Winston fall to 3 & 9. The complete list (for PPR or non-PPR) is here.