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az_prof

Member Since 18 Jul 2003
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 07:11 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Montee Ball

Yesterday, 09:31 AM

without getting into detailed analysis, I think Ball will be pretty close to what Moreno was last year with potentially more TD upside.

 

250 carries at 4.5= 1,125/10 TD's

50 receptions at 8.5 ypr= 425/2 TD's

 

277 FF points in PPR leagues puts him at RB6 last year behind Lynch & Moreno and in front of Murray, Peterson, Lacy.

This is a very reasonable projection.  And as I look at last year's top 10 and top 5 in my PPR league, I expect Moreno, Reggie Bush, and Lynch to decline.  Moreno for obvious reasons.  Bush I think is 29 now and I think Joique pushes him for PT.  Lynch is 28, Christine Michael is having a good camp, so I expect Michael to get more attempts too--Lynch will still be the lead dog but it will be more of a RBBC.  Another top guy, Demarco Murray, I really like, but he has been injury prone so I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall although short of injury I expect him to be right in the top 5 mix again.

 

Basically, when I look at this I see two guys, Lacy and Leveon Bell as the only other guys who could push up and replace the people I mention above and get into that top 5 area.  Lacy has the talent but Leveon doesn't IMO.  I wouldn't be surprised if Lacy does but I also wouldn't be surprised to see GB use him in more of a RBBC than Ball will experience in Denver.

 

If Ball doesn't get hurt, it is hard to see him not being at least top 8 and possibly as high as RB5.  I would put Lacy in the same tier with the same expectations.  And I would drop Moreno out of the top 30 and Bush out of the top 10 and Lynch down to the RB8.


In Topic: Terrance West vs Isaiah Crowell

14 July 2014 - 07:06 PM

There's also Priest Holmes but yeah, the list is incredibly small.

About one a decade...and the number no one remembers...legion.


In Topic: Baylor WR Josh Gordon

14 July 2014 - 06:41 PM

I just keep checking this, once a day, hoping that we will finally know for sure what the story is.  It reminds me of Good Will Hunting in reverse...I keep expecting one day that Josh Gordon will pick up and leave, never to be heard of again. Except instead of going off to study at Harvard or do something amazing like Will, I expect him to disappear in a bad way, failing to live up to his potential.


In Topic: Terrance West vs Isaiah Crowell

14 July 2014 - 06:34 PM

 

- Bryce Brown is an apt comparison, since he was obviously more talented than many of those drafted (in hind sight), but still wasn't chosen. Many in here touted him as such, but were ridiculed. Similar to now.

 

 

Brown was drafted in the 7th. 

 

And Alfred Morris was a sixth round pick.

Ahmad Brashaw was drafted in the 7th round.

Zach Stacy in the fifth round.

 

The only RB I can think of in the past decade who has been a star and went undrafted is Arian Foster.

So, basically, Crowell supporters have to hope that Crowell is the next Foster, which is possible, but for every Foster there are literally hundreds of  UDFAs whom no one has ever heard of and doesn't know the name.

 

Foster had not played in the AA--he had played four years in the SEC. But he fell out of the draft because he regressed in his senior year, and his 40 time was SLOW as it turned out because of a hamstring pull.  He really doesn't compare to Crowell unless you have decided that Crowell is going to be the next UDFA to make it big.


In Topic: How important is a top RB on a dynasty team?

06 July 2014 - 12:03 PM

Well, it is true that WRs have longer careers so from that angle they have more long term value.  But the Tier 1 for WRs is much deeper than the Tier 1 for RBs.  And the drop off in scoring from tier 1 RBs to tier 2 is greater than from tier 1 to tier 2 WRs.

 

In my own case, my two league championships coincided with great years by Ray Rice, who happened to be very good in PPR because of how many receptions he made.  

 

There is no one way to win and PPR does give more value to WRs in general, but those handful of RBs who are heavily involved in the passing game can have exceptional value in PPR, all the more so because it is a pretty small group who can do it all.