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az_prof

Member Since 18 Jul 2003
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 04:49 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Brian Quick WR Saint Louis Rams [Appalachian State]

27 July 2014 - 09:11 PM

This one catches my attention, pre-season or not.  I honestly don't expect much from Quick or Britt, but if they end up starting, then they will have value.  And why aren't Givens or Tavon starting?

 

https://twitter.com/...555414965837824

Quote

 

Interesting Kenny Britt & Brian Quick been getting most all first-team reps at WR. Tavon slot/RB. Chris Givens running mostly with 2s. #Rams


In Topic: Withholding Judgment - Buy Low Opportunities (mostly dynasty)

27 July 2014 - 06:21 PM

How about Jared Cook?

 

He came into the league as a raw athletic specimen, we knew he would require some time to develop. Considering tight ends often have an extended learning curve anyhow, I still consider it possible Cook hasn't reached his full potential. He has a tight end loving OC and his HC apparently likes him. He got a good but of targets last year, and under such conditions he didn't have a terrible season last year. As I don't foresee the targets going away (perhaps they increase), 2014 likely serves as his floor.

 

Perhaps he doesn't make an ideal starting TE, but his price has dropped to ridiculous levels. It startups you can get him with your 15th pick - tight end 22. I'd take Jared Cook as my back up with upside any day.

No. Cook has had enough time to develop.  I think he is at best an average TE and that is practically worthless.


In Topic: [DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low?

27 July 2014 - 04:57 PM

 

 

 

ebf - time to pull the plug

 

His value drops with each passing injury, but at the end of the day he's 27 years old with a dirt cheap dynasty price tag. If he stays healthy for even one of the next three seasons and is reasonably close to his peak talent level, he'll still provide a positive return on the investment required to get him right now. It would be one thing if he were still being valued like a top 20-25 dynasty RB, but that's no longer the case. Many of the guys in his ADP range are equally unlikely to do anything, but for different reasons. I'd rather have the hyper-talented guy with durability problems than the dime-a-dozen talent with a clean bill of health. It's more conceivable for Stewart to stay out of the training room for 3-4 months than it is for someone like Lance Dunbar or James White to suddenly become a viable NFL talent overnight.

 

You post a lot of good stuff but your stance on Stewart makes me question every other thing you write.  Stewart just isn't built to withstand the NFL.  

 

 

:whoosh:

 

This guy is now on the level of LHUCKS, timscooch, etc with his dynasty league trolling and his "analysis".

 

Just one of the Shark Pool's worst posters overall.

 

I couldn't disagree with you more.  I have learned more from EBG on here than anyone else with the possible exception of Adam Harstad.  

 

Right now Stewart's value is probably a third round rookie pick.  And he is pointing out that the odds of Stewart having some meaningful games for you are better than the odds of most rookies you would draft in the third round or most other guys valued around him.  When he plays, Stewart is still quite capable of putting up big numbers.  

 

Some people make decisions about a player and never adjust.  They owned Stewart in the past, he got hurt, and they vow to never own him again.  You need to adjust player value but it should be Gold or Fool's Gold--there are many degrees of value in between.


In Topic: Withholding Judgment - Buy Low Opportunities (mostly dynasty)

26 July 2014 - 01:44 PM

Good list and your premise is valid: these players can mostly be gotten cheaply and a few of them will probably pan out and exceed expectations.

 

QBs: I am not a big fan of either Gino or EJ eventhough I happen to have EJ.  I like EJ's situation better because he seems to have some good pieces around him but if he doesn't show considerably progress by week 6 I will probably jettison. And you're right, we expect to see big progress going from first to second year and if we don't--then these two guys get dropped for some waiver wire prospect. 

 

Key Question: how do Gino and EJ compare to Manziel, Teddy, and Bortles?

 

RBs: Can Ingram really only be 24? Seems like he has been sucking it up for longer than that.  Well, given his age, he could go somewhere next year and possibly resuscitate his career--obviously NO was not a good spot for a guy like him with bad hands.  I could see him as a stash with value going up.

 

Brown is also a stash and hope--as long as Spiller is healthy his value is minimal, but he showed me enough in PHI to think that he could be a decent starting RB if he gets the shot.

 

Wilson and Lattimore? Those injuries scare me.  And Lattimore also has some pretty stiff competition so I would pass on him for sure. I think Jennings is the guy to own in NYG rather than Wilson and Andre Williams is a decent prospect; I would rather have Andre Williams than Wilson.  

 

Receivers:

Stephen Hill? No thank you. Seen enough. 

Britt? I think his knees are shot so I would not roster him and in fact unloaded him a few months ago.

Nicks? Sure. I would give him a shot. He landed in a great situation. Yes he is on a show-me contract, but I expect him to show up.

 

Tavon Austin, Hopkins, Patterson,  and Allen are not going to be cheap--I wouldn't comment on them in this group.

 

I like Terrance Williams as a prospect, but I don't think he is a sure thing and the price in my leagues is steep--I'll wait.

 

I like Robert Woods. He showed great hands and good chemistry with Manuel last season.  I could see him being Buffalo's leading WR this year while the rookie matures.  Departure of Johnson opens the door for lots of opportunity.

 

Marlon Brown is what he is: I am not interested as I think the ceiling is too low to be worth it.

 

Not a believer in Ace Sanders or Dobson.

 

Players I would add:

 

Andre Holmes, Marcus Wheaton:  Holmes has good size and physical ability and started to come on last year.  Plus, James Jones is at the end of his career and yet is WR1 for Oakland.  I like Rod Streater but I think I agree with those who say he is a WR2 and not a featured guy with a high ceiling.  

 

And Wheaton is a guy with good speed and a good route runner and he is poised to be a starter on PIttsburgh where we have seen guys put up pretty good numbers: Holmes, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace.


In Topic: Randall Cobb?

26 July 2014 - 12:18 PM

I think they'll wait and see what happens this season. If he can't stay healthy and the rookies look decent, seems like an easy decision. However if he stays healthy and leads the league in receptions like some are predicting and the rookies look like most rookies, they probably would like to sign him. Unfortunately like others have pointed out in the Jordy thread, there are a lot of other guys that they need to sign after this year as well. They didn't draft 3 WRs this year for no reason and Jordy is locked up for 4 years so something has to give. And all signs at this point seem to be Cobb walking.

I think I'm going to start shopping around and see if anybody is interested in him. He looks like he's in for a great year and whether you buy into that contract year type thing or not, Cobb has a very big incentive to have a monster year.

So I think a good discussion would be assuming that he's gone, what would his value be? He's very good but his value surely tanks if he goes to a very poor team which is probably most likely to give him the big bucks.

This would be the low point to sell him.  He will no doubt produce well this year so the ideal time to sell, if you think he is going to be allowed to walk, is 4-6 games into season as teams look for the final playoff piece and after he has proven he can play again post-injury.