I posted this in another thread here but I think it got buried and believe it's important to resolve this issue, so here it is ..............


Sorry to complain, but I don't think the calculator that is figuring the drops is correct. The easiest example for me to point to would be to look at it right at the beginning of the draft with the first pick. As an example if you set it to look ahead 24 picks I am getting drops of:

3 QB's (ok, I agree 3 will probably be gone in the first 24 picks)
12 RB's (hmmm....starting to look strange....if only 12 RB's were taken in the first 24 picks I'd be pretty happy)
6 WR's (again, not too hard to believe)
3 TE's (ok, that's just plain wrong....all 3 of the top tight ends will never be taken in the first 24 picks).

If you examine these drops later in the draft trying out different number of picks to look ahead and really think about what it's telling you I think you will see that it isn't giving accurate information.

I'd be willing to bet that it is using the straight VBD rankings of all positions to predict how many of each position will be taken inbetween picks, rather than the ADP which would clearly be a better predictor of how a draft will go. And since you are trying to actually predict what will be taken when you are creating those drops, you will be basing your decisions off of predictions that just aren't right.

I hope I'm making sense here, and hate to complain about an otherwise awesome application.

Bruce, maybe you could take a closer look at what I am saying and observe what the drops are saying as you go through the draft and see if you agree that what I am saying is actually happening. Could it be that your drop calculations are coming from the VBD list based on the leagues scoring (in otherwords like the far right column on the VBD spreadsheet program) rather than the average draft positions of players?

Thanks for reading.

Tbone



....and one other quick question. Will the ADP's be updated as we move through towards the end of August when most drafts occur?

TBone,

Your TE scoring looks a little skewed... with my scoring system the drops start out 3-QBs, 15-RBs, 6-WR, and 0-TE... which looks pretty realistic to me.

We are shooting to update the projections every friday from now until Sept 1st.

Well we use pretty standard scoring but since we only start 2 WR's the tight ends tend to end up being more valuable when creating a VBD list

starters:

1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1DEF (no kickers in our league)

So VBD says that the first 3 tight ends SHOULD be taken in the first 24. Of course in an actual draft people don't just go down a VBD list and draft in that order, and 3 tights ends just flat out won't be taken in the first 24 picks. That's what led me to believe that you are using a VBD list to determine the "Drops" rather than their ADP.

I don't know if answering that would somehow infringe on your desire to keep the inner workings of the DD 4.0 a secret, but it sure seems to me that it would make more sense to use the ADP numbers to figure the drops rather than the VBD numbers (again I'm making that assumption based on what I'm seeing throughout the mock drafts I've been testing with it).

The bottom line is I'm not complaining....in fact I am blown away at the program and the job you did creating it. It reminds me a lot of Skippy's pay program, but yours has a much smoother, more functional feel and design. However I know for sure that his uses the ADPs to figure "Drops". Of course the ADPs need to be accurate for it to work properly as well, and that's why I was wondering if you would be updating (the ADPs) throughout August. You mentioned that you would be updating the projections each friday, but I was wondering about the ADPs as well since they will change somewhat between now and September.

Thanks Bruce, the application rocks!!!


(edited for spelling)

i also replied in the previous thread, but thought that I'd reply here too since it's the topic:

all TD=6, rush/receive = 0.1 (10/pt), pass = 0.4 (25/pt), yahoo default everything else. 12 teams. look-ahead set to 36:
harrison @ 1.02, randy @ 1.07, TO @ 1.09, moulds @ 1.12, horn @ 2.03, shockey @ 2.06, heap @ 3.05

Do I have something setup wrong? i find these picks pretty unlikely...

thanks a ton FBG!!!

cobracmdr