TEAM MUST PLAY 160 GAMES FOR ACTION
16201 ARI DIAMONDBACKS TTL WINS o86½-125 o87 1/2 -115
16202 ARI DIAMONDBACKS TTL WINS

16203 ATL BRAVES TTL WINS o86-105 o86 1/2 - 105
16204 ATL BRAVES TTL WINS u86-125 u86 1/2 - 125

16205 BAL ORIOLES TTL WINS o65-115
16206 BAL ORIOLES TTL WINS u65-115

16207 BOS RED SOX TTL WINS o94-115
16208 BOS RED SOX TTL WINS u94-115

16209 CHI CUBS TTL WINS o87½-115 o88 1/2 -105
16210 CHI CUBS TTL WINS u87½-115 u88 1/2 -125

16211 CHI WHITE SOX TTL WINS o76-115 o77 1/2 -115
16212 CHI WHITE SOX TTL WINS

16213 CIN REDS TTL WINS o76½-120 o77 -120
16214 CIN REDS TTL WINS

16215 CLE INDIANS TTL WINS o91-115 o90 1/2 -115
16216 CLE INDIANS TTL WINS

16217 COL ROCKIES TTL WINS o83-115
16218 COL ROCKIES TTL WINS u83-115

16219 DET TIGERS TTL WINS o93½-125
16220 DET TIGERS TTL WINS u93½-105

16221 FLA MARLINS TTL WINS o68½-125
16222 FLA MARLINS TTL WINS u68½-105

16223 HOU ASTROS TTL WINS o73½-115 o74 1/2 -115
16224 HOU ASTROS TTL WINS

16225 KC ROYALS TTL WINS o73½-105 o74 -115
16226 KC ROYALS TTL WINS

16227 LA ANGELS TTL WINS o92-115
16228 LA ANGELS TTL WINS u92-115

16229 LA DODGERS TTL WINS o87½-115 o87 -115
16230 LA DODGERS TTL WINS u87½-115

16231 MIL BREWERS TTL WINS o84-110
16232 MIL BREWERS TTL WINS u84-120

16233 MIN TWINS TTL WINS o73½-115
16234 MIN TWINS TTL WINS u73½-115

16235 NY METS TTL WINS o92½-125 o93 -125
16236 NY METS TTL WINS u92½-105

16237 NY YANKEES TTL WINS o94-115 o94 1/2 -110
16238 NY YANKEES TTL WINS

16239 OAK ATHLETICS TTL WINS o74-115 o73 1/2 -115
16240 OAK ATHLETICS TTL WINS

16241 PHI PHILLIES TTL WINS o88-105
16242 PHI PHILLIES TTL WINS u88-125

16243 PIT PIRATES TTL WINS o68½-115 o69 -115
16244 PIT PIRATES TTL WINS

16245 SDG PADRES TTL WINS o85-115 o84 1/2 -115
16246 SDG PADRES TTL WINS

16247 SF GIANTS TTL WINS o72-115
16248 SF GIANTS TTL WINS u72-115

16249 SEA MARINERS TTL WINS o85-125 o83 1/2 -125
16250 SEA MARINERS TTL WINS

16251 STL CARDINALS TTL WINS o77-115
16252 STL CARDINALS TTL WINS u77-115

16253 TB DEVIL RAYS TTL WINS o72-125 o75 1/2 -115
16254 TB DEVIL RAYS TTL WINS

16255 TEX RANGERS TTL WINS o75-115
16256 TEX RANGERS TTL WINS u75-115

16257 TOR BLUE JAYS TTL WINS [s]o84-115[s] o 85 1/2 -115
16258 TOR BLUE JAYS TTL WINS

16259 WAS NATIONALS TTL WINS o71½-105
16260 WAS NATIONALS TTL WINS u71½-125

(edited for format - best it's going to get)

Reds over.....

Mets over

Sea under

TB over

Boston over, White Sox and Astros Under

That Seattle one looks like free money on the over.

DET over

SD Pads Over

Yanks under 94

I'll keep fading the Yanks as long as they are overvalued, last year they went under once again...

Just for the record, last years win totals:

link

I agree, but on the under

FWIW BP's newly released team previews PECOTA predictions have the Mariners at 73 wins
http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php

Take the over on the Marlins, they have enough young talent to pull out some Ws

16202 ARI DIAMONDBACKS TTL WINS u86½-105
16223 HOU ASTROS TTL WINS o73½-115
16252 STL CARDINALS TTL WINS u77-115


So far, these are the one's I'm looking at.
I've already stated that I think the D'Backs overachieved last year, and I think they'll take a step back this year. They play in a tough division, so going 87-75 or better is going to be tough.
The Cardinals just look bad to me this year. Their pitching staff looks brutal, and their offense doesn't look all that great either. I don't see this team being near .500 this year.....may wait and see if this total ticks a bit higher.
The Astros are not that bad. Their lineup of Bourne, Matsui, Berkman, Lee, Pence, Tejada, Wigginton and Towles is going to win a lot of games for them this year with their bats. And their bullpen is significantly better than last year. In fact, it's probably a major strength for them this year. Yes, their starting pitching outside of Oswalt is plain ....but I have them significantly better than the Cards this year.

Nothing stands out to me all that much in the AL, except maybe under on the Yankees. Last year I got under 97.5, and this year it's at 94...so not all that much value there. I think Seattle is going to be good this year too, and may go over 85 on them, don't know. No 'official' plays just yet.

I'm lazy which ones have a big delta from vegas?

Florida and SF under look good to me, Nats over might be interesting.

From the AL WEST

Anaheim looks about right to too low by 5 games or more based on what I feel is the relative weakness of their division.

Oakland looks too high by as many as 5 games looking at their lineup and just thinking they can't put up enough runs.

Seattle looks too high by 5-10 games. This just has the look of a .500 team to me. Lineup looks like a bunch of B-level guys but no total spares. Same past the ace in arms.

Texas looks astronomically high. Their starting staff might come in with a W-L percentage of under .400, heck possibly .333 or less which will easily be the worst in the majors. Yes, it is situational based on some injuries and where these spares came from. Salary is down to small market level and 42MM+ is left on the table. Lots of minor league guys will be pushed through the system on a tryout basis to establish a baseline. The outfield is an abortion and you have one guy you can reasonably lean on in the infield and he's going to start pouting perhaps from the get-go. This line is based on the second half record (one of the best in MLB) more than anything when there was no pressure being 300 games out of first or whatever. I don't buy it. This team finishes more than 10 games off .500 pace. Count on it.

I'm surprised to see Colorado's line so low at 83. I realize they got ridiculously hot in September to win 90 games and the pennant, but 90 was right in line w/ their Pythagorean number. The team is still relatively young, return almost everybody and didn't have a bunch of obvious career years in 07. ARZ, LA & SD's lines are all higher than the Rockies'.

Uhh, you may want to look at their bullpen numbers again

Their bullpen is due for a serious adjustment

Yeah I noticed that, time will tell, but the Rangers didn't get much better and the A's got a lot worse, while the M's retain a strong pen and add Bedard to the mix. 86 isn't too much to ask.

Guru, could you reformat that? And why does it say they must complete 160 games?

Here is a link to last year's thread which might help in who to listen to or not...LINK. There was some excellent advice in there.

I try to find value with the smaller market-type teams. Conversely, I like to go with the under on the big names. For example, the Dodgers are probably too high damnit (fan).

Because there have been years where some teams did not make up rainouts due to scheduling difficulty and no playoff impact. Usually a game at most, not sure i've ever seen a team not play 2 games.

Yeah, I can't really reformat....but if someone else can, I'd be happy to edit the first post with something in a more readable format.

I have way too many over's for my liking.

Seattle and the over looks like easy money, they won 88 games last year, swapped out Jose Guillen and George Sherrill for Erik Bedard, and their division got worse.

Tampa and Washington are two teams I think can go 500 this year, so I'll take the over on them.

I've been pimping the White Sox for improvement this year, so over 76 1/2 looks very do-able.

The Stros' number at 73 1/2 is way too low, over. As another poster said their arms are not good outside of Oswalt, but their bats in a mediocre division should net them at least 74 wins.

Cards under 76 1/2 looks like another really safe bet. Their staff is horrendous and their bats outside of Pujols are mediocre or worse. I believe the Stros finish above the Cards in the standings.

DBacks under 86 1/2, they were outscored by their opponents last year and don't think they did enough in the offseason to correct that. The law of averages will kick in.

Not surprisingly the Cubs and the Yanks are being over valued, under on both.

I, too, don't get the low number for the Rocks. Over, baby.

**First official play, sent this in this morning
The more I thought about this one, I wanted to get on this early, I don't see it moving anywhere but down. Why?
Let's start with pitching. At present, their staff looks as follows:
1 Adam Wainwright ®
2 Braden Looper ®
3 Joel Pineiro ®
4 Anthony Reyes ®
5 Mark Mulder (L)
5 Matt Clement ®

Seriously.
Joel Pineiro? Matt Clement? Mark Mulder? Clement has already reported arm troubles, and it's friggin February. Mulder is a shell of what he once was. Anthony Reyes is one of the most hittable starters in the majors. Wainwright may be alright, but if he's going against the other teams #1 night in and night out, he is always going to be the #2 pitcher out there. This team gets the worst end of the stick in just about every starting pitching matchup, except maybe against the Pirates and a few vs. the Astros. I mean Shawn Chacon vs Mark Mulder may be a PUSH. Chris Carpenter is HOPING for a mid season return off of Tommy John surgery.....maybe see him mid-to-late July for a few starts tuning up for '09.

The bullpen is not any better imo. They are still anchored by Jason Isringhausen, and after that they have a lot of questions. Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer, Tyler Johnson, Ron Flores, a whole bunch of arms after that, and I lose that term loosely.

Okay, they play in the NL Central, and everyone knows the NL Central doesn't have much pitching this year, so let's take a look at their lineup:
Albert Pujols is very good. But AP is also dealing with lingering elbow problems. He may opt for surgery, he may not. The fact is, he is not 100%.
They traded away Jim Edmonds was frankly was not very good offensively, but he was still decent defensively. Who is replacing him in center field? Rick Ankiel. Yep, butcher out there. Honestly, once NL pitchers learn how to pitch to him, I think he is not going to be very good offensively either. Sure maybe 25 homers, but a .230 average? I'm thinking Rob Deer like out there. Hell, he was only hitting in the mid .260 in AAA.
They traded Scott Rolen away for Troy Glaus, so they basically get a worse defense third baseman with decent power, injury prone, and will take a while to adjust to hitting in the new league.
And now they have the black hole offensively up the middle in Cesar Itzuris and Adam Kennedy. They may combine to hit 5 homers this year.
Chris Duncan is in left and Ryan Ludwick is in right and frankly neither of them is very desirable as an every day player.
Yadiner Molina behind the plate is very good defensively, so-so offensively.
So basically you have what looks to be like a below average defensive team, with a significantly below average offensive team.

Now, that's not to say there isn't hope. Edmonds was traded to clear up room for top prospect Colby Rasmus. He may win the starting CF job, pushing Ankiel to right and Ludwick to the bench/platoon type arrangement. And while this may be their most optimistic lineup, it's still not plugging 20 year old Ken Griffey Jr. out there to roam center. Rasmus is a nice prospect with some pop, but he probably still strikes out too much and needs a bit more time in the minors. I don't believe he's played above Double A yet, and may well be overwhelmed by major league pitching. He has a nice eye, some speed and pop in the bat, but still young and I don't think he's being rushed up there.

All this being said, the strongest reason I am going under the Cardinals win total is that pitching staff looks bleak. And there is a chance Pujols and Carpenter shut it down early, which only strengthens the case for them having a poor season. NL Central is going to be quiet competitive this year, teams like the Brewers and Cubs should be good, the Reds and Astros should be very competitive. An 83-85 win season may win this division. I don't think the Cards will be in the mix though.

g'luck

There are five that jump out at me.

TOR u84
KC u73 1/2
HOU o73 1/2
CLE u91
ARI u86 1/2

I am sure there are other "safer" picks; but these are the ones I narrowed it down to and if I was to make a play it would be from this group. Confidence level (on a 1-5) - ARI under is about a 4; HOU over and TOR under is about a 3 or 4; the rest are all 3s.

All you have to do is edit your post. Bold it, take out the crap, and put some spaces in there. 5 minutes. This is the responsibility that goes along with being a thread-starter mind you -- especially a season long one.

The chance that Pujols will opt for elbow surgery is a concern for Redbird fans and Pujols owners this season. It's pretty much accepted that he's going to need reconstructive surgery at some point in his career. If St. Louis gets off to a slow start and 2008 becomes a lost cause, it seems like he'd be more inclined to have it done now so he can recuperate for Spring 2009.

If he's available at the end of round 1, I'd probably still draft him but he's a riskier pick this year than he's ever been.

I have the Dbacks winning 85 games this year so in my opinion they are right on the money. I think the NL West will be a fight all the way to the end of the season with only SF being out of it.

Take the under on the Phils-

Over:

Dbacks
White Sux
Rays
Astros

Under:

Orioles
Pirates
Yankees
Indians
Phillies

The Royals winning the same number as the AStros?

How is TB so low?

That over looks the best bet on the board IMO

I'd surprised, but I wouldn't be shocked. The Astros' pitching outside of Oswalt is groin grabingly bad.

TB OVER

That line is at 75.5. Probably moved after the article.

Guru is doing a poor job at being a thread starter/monitor.

The Yanks went over last year..I bet them and won

I remember it being a couple games under, maybe LT got a different line.

Here is the link from last year, and the Yankees were between 96-97.5 wins all preseason. Nowhere did I see anywhere close to 94.

Also, it's funny how great spring is and hope springs eternal. Last year it was almost unanimous that TB o67 was a great bet. I think I was one of the few who didn't like that at all (I didn't play against it, I only had one play last year).
Now, you're telling me that a team that went 66-96 last year with a win total of 67 before the year is a great bet again at over 75.5? Hmmmm, I really don't think so again. It's not that I don't like the Rays chances....it's just they are in a really, really tough division. The Red Sox are going to be really good this year. They won 107 games last year, and I'd expect 96-105 well within reason again. The Yankees should be good this year. They won 95 last year and I'd expect near the same again. The Blue Jays are going to be very competitive I feel again. 83-79 last year for the Jays, I see no reason they can't finish over .500 again this year. Baltimore is going to be bad this year. But at 69-93 last year it's not as if they were all that good last year. In order for the Rays to pick up 10 additional wins this year I would like to see a team that made a bunch of great offseason acquisitions. Well, they traded their second leading RBI getter and 3rd best average guy, to get Matt Garza. Then they added Troy Percival and Cliff Floyd. That's it. Will their young guys get better with a year more experience, guys like Upton, Longoria, Crawford? Sure. But I hardly think Carlos Pena is going to put up another 46 hr/121 rbi year. And with Eric Hinske their backup...well, they better hope Pena doesn't get hurt.
But really when I look at team totals for the upcoming year, I look at pitching more than anything. Kazmir is good (although arm troubles already this spring are troubling). James Shields is effective. Matt Garza has potential. They may have a bunch of young arms in the minors, but the rest of what they break ST with is pretty much not very good. And then their bullpen. Troy Percival is their closer. Troy Percival who hasn't been a closer in 4 years now and came out of retirement to pitch for the Cards last year. Looks like a move out of desperation to me. Reyes was decent last year for a while...but then hitters started figuring out that his 89 mph fastball really isn't overwhelming. Dan Wheeler is a nice piece to that bullpen, but he is not a premier reliever. In the AL East, they are going to need a lot more out there then what they have to put up a mid 80 win season.
I'm staying off the Rays again this year because I think their number is pretty dead on. I can see them winning 74 games and I can see them winning 78 games. I don't think 66 wins will happen again, as it seems to me, this is a team moving in a positive direction. But until the Rays move to the NL Central, a .500 season is a bit beyond what I think they have in them.

Guys, my apologies...I did NOT bet the over on the Yanks. I really should have checked before I posted, but my memory (which must be leaving) was sure. In fact, I bet the under and won that bet. Being a big Yankee fan and knowing they made the playoffs, I must have just assumed I bet the over and won?

That was irresponsible posting on my part. I am very careful not post erroneous info so I will take my flogging like a man.

The Yankees will be a better team this year, but with TB being stronger I wouldn't see much of an increase in wins for the Yanks though (even though the Yanks were 10-8 against TB and a similar record is possible). Baltimore should be bad again and in the cellar when the season ends. I did my analysis on another thread

As of March 12th, all of the totals in the first post are within 1/2 game still, with the exception of the Cardinals who are now at 76 (down 1 game).

I'm still looking pretty strong at Az under 87 1/2 (1 full game better for me than it was almost one month ago). I really think they will be hard pressed to win that many games in the NL West. Will wait just a bit longer, as now is the point in spring training that rosters are filling out, guys are being sent down, rotations are being set, etc...

I'm officially off the Astros over thinking. Way too many things will have to go right for this team to put up a .500 season.

I agree on Arizona under, and that's pretty much all I got so far. Any major injuries in spring training yet -- I don't follow it. Tampa's total was sure pushed up there; is the Rocko Baldelli injury a big deal?

Looking very dicey that the Giants will make 72 wins this year. I now expect them to lose more than 90. Their offense will be legendarily bad, this was known, but the defense is unexpectedly shaky too.

I would definitely take the under on SF and OAK. I am predicting each of them may lose closer to 100 than 90.

As for the Royals, 74 is not a bad line, but my homer-ish optimism would predict 80-82...they improved 7 games from 06 to 07 so I would fully expect a similar improvement this season which would mean 76 wins.

Don't forget the bullpen!

I think Oakland covers this year. They're not going to make the playoffs or anything, but Beane is much better at finding useful guys from the scrap-heap than most. And being perennially young means more breakouts than collapses.

I actually think the bullpen will be better this year relative to last. Who knows though, non-elite relievers bounce around so much that it's hard to get much of a handle on how they'll do.

There haven't been any new developments?

Last year, you guys spoon-fed me to 3 - 0 and I went pretty big. Where's Pickles when I need him?

Just an FYI, TB o/u is now at 77 games

That's a pretty huge adjustment from the line opener of 72. In any other division, the Rays may have a decent shot of 77 wins. In the AL East, I think their chances are slim to none.

Second *Official* play - UNDER 77 (-115) TB