QUOTE (pollardsvision @ Jul 1 2008, 08:50 AM)

QUOTE (gump @ Jul 1 2008, 08:37 AM)

OK...so the first half of the marathon is over...and we're cruising along.
CC, Upton, and Pena could easily improve offensively. Longoria is getting better at the plate weekly. Aki had a rough start. I'm sure Hinske/Gross/Aybar could hit worse though.
Kaz missed a month. Shields has been flaky. Garza flakier. Sonny has nowhere to go but down though. And obviously the bullpen can't perform any better. But we could see the addition of a lefty who can throw 99.
Am I crazy to think we will be better in the 2nd half, barring injury?
i think it's possible that the rays could perform even better in the 2nd half, but to me, the bullpen is the key to this whole thing and it feels like they are pitching a little above their heads. if the bullpen starts to lose it a little, that'll have a big effect in the W-L columns (especially for a team that seems to be getting by on solid pitching, great defense, and timely hitting).
i think the offense and pitching will be a wash. the role players will cool down, but CC and upton have to heat up. there's enough guys contributing that the runs will get scored. the SPing should be about the same. kaz and shields will ensure that there are no prolonged losing streaks. garza/sonny/e-jax keep us in most games with some gems and some clunkers mixed in.
with all that said, i think it's safe to say that we really have no idea what this team is truly capable of at this point.
As you might imagine, this was the topic of discussion on Boston sports radio today. Also, probably not a surprise that most ("experts" included), felt that TB would not be able to keep this up. If I can generalize a bit, the feeling was that the SP was strong, and short of injury, should minimally keep TB in the WC chase for the whole season. However:
Questions about the BP, especially with Percival down and the ripple effect that might have.
Questions about the lineup, particularly RF and a true power hitting stud a la Ortiz, Manny, Pujols, etc.
Questions about ownership's willingness/ability to compete with Sox/Yanks/Cubs/Angels for the deadline mega deal.
And lastly, how will TB perform when the heat gets turned up in August and September? They are certainly loose and flying high now, but how will that translate when everything gets tighter? They will be going against teams that have lots of veterans who have "been there" before.
Personally, while I don't disagree with some of the potential flaws for TB, I also don't think there is another team in the division that will be able to apply so much pressure as to run away with the DC. Too many flaws and shaky health on every team.
-BP has been one of the best in the majors this year. Until otherwise notified, not worried there.
-Lineup is league-average, or slightly-above. I think guys like CC, Pena and Upton will tick up a bit, and Longoria is slamming the ball. Again, not particularly worried there.
-I don't think management has any problems going for a huge trade, but they won't re-sign a guy like Sabathia. Still, that doesn't affect this year's race if they do decide to go get him for a half-season splurge. They certainly have the prospects and the in-season budget to do so.
-Your fourth point is the only one that concerns me. That's legit. But...I just think they're flat-out better than the Yanks. Sox, that's up for debate.