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corpcow
My current DBs are Antonio Cromartie, Charles Woodson, Antrel Rolle, and Dunta Robinson. We start 2 per week + 2 flex but I'll likely never start more than 3, and probably 2 most of the time. Dunta and Woodson are both on 1yr contracts and I probably won't extend either.These guys are solid if unspectacular in our scoring. (In fact I'll probably cut or trade off Dunta to unload his 1yr + 50% of his salary).

There are some intriguing options out there though... Are any worth grabbing at the league min for long-term upside and/or this year?

Fred Bennett
Brian Williams
Quentin Mikell
Yeremiah Bell
DaJuan Morgan
Abdullah

James Butler
Brandon Carr
Rouse

Are any of these guys must-haves? How would you rank them and where's the cutoff? Which has the most long term prospects vs. opportunity?

Scoring: Passes defense = 1, Solos = 1, assists = 0.5, sacks = 3, INTs and FF/FR = 3
Anthony Borbely
I like Bell and Bennett more than any of your current DBs except for Cromartie.
Jene Bramel
I understand there are cap issues involved, but I'm not sold that Cromartie or Rolle will hit 65 solos this season, which means they'll have to hit pretty high numbers of coverage peripherals to be more than DB3s. Woodson and Robinson are even unlikelier bets.

I think Bennett, Bell and Abdullah are better than 50-50 to finish in the same range and will be more consistent. If you value consistency over volatility, and there's an argument for each, I'd try to turn over the roster.
corpcow
Thanks.

Which of those 3 would you target? I can probably only make room for one.

Are any of them worth more than 1 yr contract?
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 5 2008, 10:02 AM) *
Thanks.

Which of those 3 would you target? I can probably only make room for one.

Are any of them worth more than 1 yr contract?


I think I'd target Bell. He's likely to get plenty of opportunity this year. Bennett would be the second choice. I don't think I'd trust any of them with longer than a one year deal. Maybe Bennett, but that's stretching it.
corpcow
Thanks Jene. I started another thread on this with my whole team, not sure if that changes anything in your eyes from a priority perspective.
corpcow
Oh, and I should mention - I have Crowder on a 1yr contract as well. Does this change anything? Does it make Bell more or less attractive?
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 5 2008, 11:02 PM) *
Oh, and I should mention - I have Crowder on a 1yr contract as well. Does this change anything? Does it make Bell more or less attractive?


Doesn't matter. In a dynasty league, you're rostering players on talent and box score potential without regard for bye week and whether they're on the same team. If a player has above-average talent, you get him rostered and work out the other issues as they come.
corpcow
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 09:54 AM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 5 2008, 11:02 PM) *
Oh, and I should mention - I have Crowder on a 1yr contract as well. Does this change anything? Does it make Bell more or less attractive?


Doesn't matter. In a dynasty league, you're rostering players on talent and box score potential without regard for bye week and whether they're on the same team. If a player has above-average talent, you get him rostered and work out the other issues as they come.


Well, you mentioned I should sign him to a 1 yr contract (which I couldn't extend), so it's pretty much redraft considerations at that point smile.gif
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 8 2008, 10:10 AM) *
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 09:54 AM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 5 2008, 11:02 PM) *
Oh, and I should mention - I have Crowder on a 1yr contract as well. Does this change anything? Does it make Bell more or less attractive?


Doesn't matter. In a dynasty league, you're rostering players on talent and box score potential without regard for bye week and whether they're on the same team. If a player has above-average talent, you get him rostered and work out the other issues as they come.


Well, you mentioned I should sign him to a 1 yr contract (which I couldn't extend), so it's pretty much redraft considerations at that point smile.gif


I haven't been in these threads for a couple of days, so I'm struggling to keep up in my addled brain. smile.gif

If the issue is that you're nervous about having two players from the same team in your lineup, I think that's a non-issue. If the issue has something to do with Crowder having a one year deal, too, I think I'm missing something in the translation, because I'm not sure where that's relevant.
corpcow
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 10:25 AM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 8 2008, 10:10 AM) *
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 09:54 AM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 5 2008, 11:02 PM) *
Oh, and I should mention - I have Crowder on a 1yr contract as well. Does this change anything? Does it make Bell more or less attractive?


Doesn't matter. In a dynasty league, you're rostering players on talent and box score potential without regard for bye week and whether they're on the same team. If a player has above-average talent, you get him rostered and work out the other issues as they come.


Well, you mentioned I should sign him to a 1 yr contract (which I couldn't extend), so it's pretty much redraft considerations at that point smile.gif


I haven't been in these threads for a couple of days, so I'm struggling to keep up in my addled brain. smile.gif

If the issue is that you're nervous about having two players from the same team in your lineup, I think that's a non-issue. If the issue has something to do with Crowder having a one year deal, too, I think I'm missing something in the translation, because I'm not sure where that's relevant.


Most reports I read suggest that the majority of the tackles will go to either Crowder or Bell. I just wasn't sure if you saw this as a good thing having both of them (basically MIA D smile.gif) or if having Crowder means I should target someone like Bennett instead.
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 8 2008, 10:37 AM) *
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 10:25 AM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 8 2008, 10:10 AM) *
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 09:54 AM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 5 2008, 11:02 PM) *
Oh, and I should mention - I have Crowder on a 1yr contract as well. Does this change anything? Does it make Bell more or less attractive?


Doesn't matter. In a dynasty league, you're rostering players on talent and box score potential without regard for bye week and whether they're on the same team. If a player has above-average talent, you get him rostered and work out the other issues as they come.


Well, you mentioned I should sign him to a 1 yr contract (which I couldn't extend), so it's pretty much redraft considerations at that point smile.gif


I haven't been in these threads for a couple of days, so I'm struggling to keep up in my addled brain. smile.gif

If the issue is that you're nervous about having two players from the same team in your lineup, I think that's a non-issue. If the issue has something to do with Crowder having a one year deal, too, I think I'm missing something in the translation, because I'm not sure where that's relevant.


Most reports I read suggest that the majority of the tackles will go to either Crowder or Bell. I just wasn't sure if you saw this as a good thing having both of them (basically MIA D smile.gif) or if having Crowder means I should target someone like Bennett instead.


Cool. Then I was mostly on the right page. All three of those players have similar upside and downside. Each have a history or injury, short track record, undetermined true NFL talent, etc. I think Bell and Bennett are essentially equal. On one hand, Bell's an in-the-box safety with plenty of opportunity. On the other, Bennett should see similar opportunity and may or may not have more big play added value.

My default is to go with the safety in those situations rather than trust that a corner will be consistent on a week-to-week basis, even one I like to breakout as much as Bennett.
corpcow
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 10:41 AM) *
Cool. Then I was mostly on the right page. All three of those players have similar upside and downside. Each have a history or injury, short track record, undetermined true NFL talent, etc. I think Bell and Bennett are essentially equal. On one hand, Bell's an in-the-box safety with plenty of opportunity. On the other, Bennett should see similar opportunity and may or may not have more big play added value.

My default is to go with the safety in those situations rather than trust that a corner will be consistent on a week-to-week basis, even one I like to breakout as much as Bennett.


Are you more worried about Bell and/or Bennett long term because of opportunity and situation or because of talent? (I.e., why wouldn't I lock either up for at least a 2 yr so I can extend if necessary)
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 8 2008, 11:38 AM) *
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 10:41 AM) *
Cool. Then I was mostly on the right page. All three of those players have similar upside and downside. Each have a history or injury, short track record, undetermined true NFL talent, etc. I think Bell and Bennett are essentially equal. On one hand, Bell's an in-the-box safety with plenty of opportunity. On the other, Bennett should see similar opportunity and may or may not have more big play added value.

My default is to go with the safety in those situations rather than trust that a corner will be consistent on a week-to-week basis, even one I like to breakout as much as Bennett.


Are you more worried about Bell and/or Bennett long term because of opportunity and situation or because of talent? (I.e., why wouldn't I lock either up for at least a 2 yr so I can extend if necessary)


Bell has been unable to stay healthy. 3-4 strong safeties have to contend with two ILBs in front of them. He's been productive in the past, but has really only consistently started for a half season in 2006. He's not a Parcells guy necessarily and on a one year contract. He may well end up looking like Keith Lewis v2007 this time next season.

Bennett should be a starter in Houston for a couple of seasons. Still, he's a corner with a short track record, a very questionable corner opposite him in a scheme that will make him work to put up tackles in run support. He could look a lot like Corey Webster v2007 this time next season.

Both have some talent, but they aren't elite players -- or, at least, they've not proven themselves to be so yet. They're value is more on situation and short track record than a guy like say Kenny Phillips or Gaines Adams.

Contract questions are tough. I'd ask yourself which would make you fussier. Having to extend or re-sign Bell or Bennett in 2009 if they play to their DB2 ceiling or having to eat a contract season (or more) if they prove themselves replacement level or worse by this time next season.
corpcow
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 01:40 PM) *
Bell has been unable to stay healthy. 3-4 strong safeties have to contend with two ILBs in front of them. He's been productive in the past, but has really only consistently started for a half season in 2006. He's not a Parcells guy necessarily and on a one year contract. He may well end up looking like Keith Lewis v2007 this time next season.

Bennett should be a starter in Houston for a couple of seasons. Still, he's a corner with a short track record, a very questionable corner opposite him in a scheme that will make him work to put up tackles in run support. He could look a lot like Corey Webster v2007 this time next season.

Both have some talent, but they aren't elite players -- or, at least, they've not proven themselves to be so yet. They're value is more on situation and short track record than a guy like say Kenny Phillips or Gaines Adams.

Contract questions are tough. I'd ask yourself which would make you fussier. Having to extend or re-sign Bell or Bennett in 2009 if they play to their DB2 ceiling or having to eat a contract season (or more) if they prove themselves replacement level or worse by this time next season.


Good points...

One issue with a 1 yr contract is that I won't have the opportunity to extend them at all.. they automatically become RFA next year, so I can lose them in bidding. But that might not outweight the situation element here.

A few other guys are available like Brandon McGowan who I see John Norton has projected very high and Jason Allen who you Norton also was higher on in the Eyes of the Guru.
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 14 2008, 12:30 PM) *
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 8 2008, 01:40 PM) *
Bell has been unable to stay healthy. 3-4 strong safeties have to contend with two ILBs in front of them. He's been productive in the past, but has really only consistently started for a half season in 2006. He's not a Parcells guy necessarily and on a one year contract. He may well end up looking like Keith Lewis v2007 this time next season.

Bennett should be a starter in Houston for a couple of seasons. Still, he's a corner with a short track record, a very questionable corner opposite him in a scheme that will make him work to put up tackles in run support. He could look a lot like Corey Webster v2007 this time next season.

Both have some talent, but they aren't elite players -- or, at least, they've not proven themselves to be so yet. They're value is more on situation and short track record than a guy like say Kenny Phillips or Gaines Adams.

Contract questions are tough. I'd ask yourself which would make you fussier. Having to extend or re-sign Bell or Bennett in 2009 if they play to their DB2 ceiling or having to eat a contract season (or more) if they prove themselves replacement level or worse by this time next season.


Good points...

One issue with a 1 yr contract is that I won't have the opportunity to extend them at all.. they automatically become RFA next year, so I can lose them in bidding. But that might not outweight the situation element here.

A few other guys are available like Brandon McGowan who I see John Norton has projected very high and Jason Allen who you Norton also was higher on in the Eyes of the Guru.


I was hesitant to recommend McGowan until the Bears showed him a real commitment -- which they now have by keeping him with the ones -- but I've got him steadily moving up my draft board. He's now #30, in the same tier as Bell, on my board.

You'll want to avoid Jason Allen. When John wrote the AFC EOTG, it was still unclear what the Dolphins were doing in the secondary. When we last saw the Dolphins, Allen was the only reasonably decent safety and put up very nice numbers. No longer. Bell is the first team SS with little competition and observers noting he's been up in-the-box regularly. Allen may still have some value given what will likely be a defense that gets plenty of opportunity, but he's an inconsistent play in tackle leagues.
therokie0070
Brian Williams may be a sleeper!
corpcow
Any additional thoughts on McGowan after the second week? Norton is really high on him, has him #8 overall in his latest redraft rankings and #12 for dynasty.
corpcow
I have a little more breathing room than expected on my contract years.

I opened McGowan on a 3 yr min contract, but he's been bid up. I'm wondering if I should continue to bid on him, or instead focus on adding say Bell, Williams, Mikell, or Bennett at a league min and/or on a shorter contract.
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 26 2008, 03:23 PM) *
I have a little more breathing room than expected on my contract years.

I opened McGowan on a 3 yr min contract, but he's been bid up. I'm wondering if I should continue to bid on him, or instead focus on adding say Bell, Williams, Mikell, or Bennett at a league min and/or on a shorter contract.


No reason to overpay for a player that's not assured of a long-term job. Bell, Mikell, Williams and Bennett are very similar players to McGowan.
corpcow
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 26 2008, 03:45 PM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 26 2008, 03:23 PM) *
I have a little more breathing room than expected on my contract years.

I opened McGowan on a 3 yr min contract, but he's been bid up. I'm wondering if I should continue to bid on him, or instead focus on adding say Bell, Williams, Mikell, or Bennett at a league min and/or on a shorter contract.


No reason to overpay for a player that's not assured of a long-term job. Bell, Mikell, Williams and Bennett are very similar players to McGowan.


Thanks. Norton is very h igh on the projects with McGowan, but now with the injury + concerns of Payne which weren't there, I'm going to pass. SOme other interesting options opened up too - Chris Hope and Roy Wlliams, who were signed for high salaries and thus cap casualties. I'm thinking Hope's upside is worth a gamble if he regains top 10 form, right??
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 26 2008, 03:47 PM) *
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 26 2008, 03:45 PM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 26 2008, 03:23 PM) *
I have a little more breathing room than expected on my contract years.

I opened McGowan on a 3 yr min contract, but he's been bid up. I'm wondering if I should continue to bid on him, or instead focus on adding say Bell, Williams, Mikell, or Bennett at a league min and/or on a shorter contract.


No reason to overpay for a player that's not assured of a long-term job. Bell, Mikell, Williams and Bennett are very similar players to McGowan.


Thanks. Norton is very h igh on the projects with McGowan, but now with the injury + concerns of Payne which weren't there, I'm going to pass. SOme other interesting options opened up too - Chris Hope and Roy Wlliams, who were signed for high salaries and thus cap casualties. I'm thinking Hope's upside is worth a gamble if he regains top 10 form, right??


Anybody with top ten production is worth a "gamble" wink1.gif.

I think Hope rebounds some this year, but I don't think he's quite the easy sell that Adrian Wilson is. He and Bell are my two favorites of the group being discussed, though the others aren't far behind.
corpcow
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 27 2008, 02:46 PM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 26 2008, 03:47 PM) *
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Aug 26 2008, 03:45 PM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Aug 26 2008, 03:23 PM) *
I have a little more breathing room than expected on my contract years.

I opened McGowan on a 3 yr min contract, but he's been bid up. I'm wondering if I should continue to bid on him, or instead focus on adding say Bell, Williams, Mikell, or Bennett at a league min and/or on a shorter contract.


No reason to overpay for a player that's not assured of a long-term job. Bell, Mikell, Williams and Bennett are very similar players to McGowan.


Thanks. Norton is very h igh on the projects with McGowan, but now with the injury + concerns of Payne which weren't there, I'm going to pass. SOme other interesting options opened up too - Chris Hope and Roy Wlliams, who were signed for high salaries and thus cap casualties. I'm thinking Hope's upside is worth a gamble if he regains top 10 form, right??


Anybody with top ten production is worth a "gamble" wink1.gif.

I think Hope rebounds some this year, but I don't think he's quite the easy sell that Adrian Wilson is. He and Bell are my two favorites of the group being discussed, though the others aren't far behind.


Hah... well, right... I meant he's worth a gamble to see IF he regains top 10 form. I guess I was just saying that it seems his ceiling is a little higher than some of the guys, and at teh very least he should be a solid DB2/3 for a league min.
corpcow
Jene, does the Bell extension change your mind at all at his medium term prospects? Do you think it's worth signing him to a 2 yr deal?

Any changes on the other guys that I should consider before picking up Bell?
Mr. Know-It-All
Hell, I like Bell and possibly Mikell better than several of your starters...but I am a sucker for safeties.
Jene Bramel
QUOTE (corpcow @ Sep 6 2008, 09:53 PM) *
Jene, does the Bell extension change your mind at all at his medium term prospects? Do you think it's worth signing him to a 2 yr deal?

Any changes on the other guys that I should consider before picking up Bell?


The extension will certainly be a huge plus for his long-term prospects if he plays as well as he has in the past and sustains it all season long. If you think he's worth signing to a 2yr deal, it may even be worth signing longer than that.

My main issue with the guys on your short list is that they've yet to truly prove that they're above replacement level talent. Most have had a short string of great games in the past or look to have good opportunity, but the waiver wire is littered with guys that had similar production and potential at DB -- Keith Lewis, Brandon McGowan, Gerald Sensabaugh, maybe Chinedum Ndukwe, Deon Grant, etc, etc. When you're looking for tackles, the DB position is really, really sensitive to zone coverage schemes, the talent in the front seven, etc.

I really think Bell explodes this season, really like Barnett's prospects and believe guys like Mikell and Hope could have nice value. What usually makes the decision for me is whether I'll be fussier that I failed to take the risk and lock a guy who does better than expected long term or that I used up cap and contract years on a guy who is nothing more than a hard lineup decision every week.

I'm not trying to be wishy-washy here. I'd probably risk locking up Bell long term. But only if I knew it wouldn't cost me a shot at another player to help my roster in crunch time.
corpcow
QUOTE (Jene Bramel @ Sep 7 2008, 10:00 AM) *
QUOTE (corpcow @ Sep 6 2008, 09:53 PM) *
Jene, does the Bell extension change your mind at all at his medium term prospects? Do you think it's worth signing him to a 2 yr deal?

Any changes on the other guys that I should consider before picking up Bell?


The extension will certainly be a huge plus for his long-term prospects if he plays as well as he has in the past and sustains it all season long. If you think he's worth signing to a 2yr deal, it may even be worth signing longer than that.

My main issue with the guys on your short list is that they've yet to truly prove that they're above replacement level talent. Most have had a short string of great games in the past or look to have good opportunity, but the waiver wire is littered with guys that had similar production and potential at DB -- Keith Lewis, Brandon McGowan, Gerald Sensabaugh, maybe Chinedum Ndukwe, Deon Grant, etc, etc. When you're looking for tackles, the DB position is really, really sensitive to zone coverage schemes, the talent in the front seven, etc.

I really think Bell explodes this season, really like Barnett's prospects and believe guys like Mikell and Hope could have nice value. What usually makes the decision for me is whether I'll be fussier that I failed to take the risk and lock a guy who does better than expected long term or that I used up cap and contract years on a guy who is nothing more than a hard lineup decision every week.

I'm not trying to be wishy-washy here. I'd probably risk locking up Bell long term. But only if I knew it wouldn't cost me a shot at another player to help my roster in crunch time.


Thanks.

I put in a 2 yr deal on Bell... the advantage to a 2yr vs. 1yr is that I can always extend him. I only wish I did it a little sooner, now it won't close until after the games today so if he has a big game the price could go up. Doh!
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