Jets five keys to victory (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Let's get the basic analysis out of the way: theJets are better than the Colts in three of the four quarters of the game.

Jets pass defense > Colts pass defense

Jets rush defense > Colts rush defense

Jets rush offense > Colts rush offense

Colts pass offense > Jets pass offense

Alternatively, looking at matchups:

Jets pass defense vs. Colts pass offense = push/slight edge Jets

Jets rush defense vs. Colts rush offense = huge edge Jets

Colts pass defense vs. Jets offense = big edge Colts

Colts rush defense vs. Jets rush offense = big edge Jets

It would be too simple to say the Colts are a one man team, but they are a largely one-dimensional team. They pass very well, and it's not just Manning. I'm unimpressed with their OL, but I think Manning does a fantastic job covering for them before and after the snap. Pre-snap he knows how to redirect his receivers based on what the defense is showing and post-snap he processes things quickly, has fantastic arm strength and accuracy and a quick release. He went over 150 snaps without taking a sack earlier this year, and that's the basic reason why the Colts won so many games despite not being able to run. Manning and this Colts offense, perhaps more than any offense in NFL history, uses the passing game to move the chains.

Three of the top five teams in passing first downs per pass attempt are the '04, '06 and '05 Colts, with the first two teams being the top two in league history. This year's edition comes in a little lower than that, although through 15 weeks the Colts would have bumped the '05 Colts out of the top five. The takeaway? This team can pass efficiency and consistently well.

On the other hand, the Colts are not a big play offense. They don't make big plays. Wayne, Clark and Collie all average fewer than 13 yards per catch. How do they match up with the Jets? Wayne is a huge part of the offense, and obviously he's going to have a tough time getting any action against Revis. It's worth remember that in the first matchup, Manning was particularly cautious around Revis. He kept throwing low and outside, or high and outside, when throwing at Revis; he respects Revis, but in the first matchup he almost gave him too much respect by throwing very difficult balls towards Wayne.

Clark is the key for the offense. The first 100 catch, 10 TD TE in league history, will the Jets be able to contain him? Leonard and Rhodes are going to have their hands full, although they had good practice going against Gates last week. I expect Clark to lead the team in receptions and probably receiving yards, so it will depend on how well the Jets handle him. He's particularly tough to cover on short routes and Manning will find him; it will be up to the Jets to force 3rd and longs to require Clark to have to make more difficult catches to move the sticks.

Offensively, the Jets are a known quantity. They're going to do what they do, and that's run the ball out of power sets. I don't know if the Colts will be able to withstand the Jets push for four quarters, and that's going to be the key to the game. These two teams are polar opposites of each other -- both play much better with the lead than from behind, but for different reasons. The Colts are great when playing ahead because they have two great edge rushers and have Manning to pass to run the clock out. The Colts D is much better against the pass than the run and the Colts run D can get worn down, which is the Jets run O's specialty. The Jets play much better with the lead, too, because they have a running game that leans on you until you collapse, and because they can't pass. The Jets also have a much better pass D than run D.

One of the Colts big edges is HFA, but I think the Jets are very fortunate to have played at Lucas Oil already this season. That will help tremendously with knowing how the stadium plays, and it might help the Jets get out to a quick start, which leads me to:

1. Get out to a fast start. The Jets won't give up on their running game; Schottenheimer brings back visions of Denzel Washington -- it's like Novocaine; just give it time it always works. But the lead is crucial in this game, as both teams prefer to dictate things from ahead. The difference is, the Colts actually can come from behind, as evidenced by their 7 4th quarter comebacks this season. The Jets know this, and I expect some trickery early on, whether it's a flea flicker, a fake punt, Brad Smith, or a no-huddle passing offense. The Jets need to manufacture points early. This means passing early.

2. Go for it on 4th down in the red zone. 4th and 2 on the Colts 12? 4th and goal from the 1? 4th and 3 from the 8? Go for it, go for it, go for it. Three points is meaningless against the Colts, and you're not going to beat them by kicking field goals. This should dictate the Jets strategy in the earlier downs, as once they get inside the red zone, four runs has a much better chance to get a first down than two runs and a pass. If the Jets have three trips into the red zone, they need at least 14 points out of those trips. Against the Colts, you must be aggressive.

3. Shut down the run consistently. This should be easy, right? In '08, the Colts ranked 32st in YPC and 31st in rushing yards; this season, they ranked 32nd in rushing yards and 30th in YPC. Indianapolis can't run, but it's important not just to contain the rushing game, but shutting it down. Against SD, the Chargers rushed 18 times for 61 yards; throw out the draw plays against a prevent defense in the final seconds of the first half, and that's 30 yards on 16 carries for fewer than 2 YPC. The Jets run D is good but not great, but they played terrifically against the run on Sunday. By shutting down the Colts rush offense to the tune of 2 YPC you make them one dimensional. The Colts passing offense is great but not unstoppable; the Chargers passing offense was just as, if not more elite. But by making them so one dimensional, the Jets were able to really play to their strengths. Not only did they make SD pass more often (since they couldn't run) but they passed in worse down and distance situations.

If the Colts, with Wayne being blanketed by Revis, are forced to pass consistently on 2nd and 3rd and longs, this game could get out of hand. With the exotic blitzes Ryan brings and the opportunistic pass defense, the Jets could get seven or eight big plays (sacks/fumbles/INTs) and dominate the game. By selling out to stopping the run, and making the Colts forced to not only play to the Jets strength but do it without their #1 receiver, the Jets4 should be able to dictate the pace of the game.

4. Put the game on the shoulders of Faneca, Mangold and Moore. The Jets interior linemen are powerful, tough and love to have the game on their shoulders. The Jets should be able to push the Colts back, and if they can get a lead early, it's important to just stick with the power running game. The Colts are not going to want to be tackling Greene and Jones by the 4th quarter, just like most teams this year.

5. Watch out for the cheap scores at the end of the half. Against Baltimore, the Colts got a "cheap" TD Indy at the end of the first half that changed the whole game. The Chargers almost did the same thing to the Jets. I suspect the Jets pass defense will contain the Colts most of the time, but in that hurry up offense the Colts are very tough to stop. By keeping an eye on the clock and playing "2 for 1" or just draining the time, the Jets can avoid giving the Colts some free points.

Prediction

The Colts have played with fire all season. Sure, they've won 15 straight games that Manning has finished, but over half of them came by one score. The Colts haven't laid the hammer to teams, and it's not by choice; they're a good but not great team that lacks the ability to stop the run consistently, can't always get off the field defensively, and is an offense that requires perfection to succeed. They can't run consistently, and they need to manufacture several first downs to score TDs -- they don't score touchdowns in two plays very often.

Manning may appear to be like a robot, but you simply can't count on always being able to win games in that fashion. At some point you need your defense or your running game to take over for a half, or you need some big plays on offense. Against the Jets, I don't see any of those things happening. Look for the Jets to take the lead early, Manning and the Colts to come back, before imploding on both sides of the ball in the fourth quarter.

Jets 28, Colts 13

 

[Raider Nation]

Jets 28, Colts 13

Pass it over here, man.

 

[gianmarco]

:subscribe:

 

[Chase Stuart]

Jets 28, Colts 13

Pass it over here, man.

Enjoy the game with Scott and Rhodes. Nice job landing those tix.

 

[Chase Stuart]

:subscribe:

Thanks, gianmarco. I'm pulling for you guys tomorrow.

 

[Raider Nation]

Let's get the basic analysis out of the way: theJets are better than the Colts in three of the four quarters of the game.

Jets pass defense > Colts pass defense

Jets rush defense > Colts pass defense

Jets rush offense > Colts rush offense

Colts pass offense > Jets pass offense

 

[awesomeness]

oof.

 

[Raider Nation]

Colts key to victory:

1. Don't oversleep.

 

[Gambino]

schtick is the best, no downside.

 

[identikit]

Colts key to victory:1. Don't oversleep.

This.

 

[Vision6]

The problem with this theory is the Jets need to get the lead early. The Colts are the best 1st half team in the league. Despite the 4th Q comebacks Indy went 13-2-1 in the first halves of games this year including 9-3 lead vs the Jets (and throwing out the Buff game at the end of the year). The Jets can win but they need to get some fluke plays i.e. the blocked xp and KR TD they got in the first game with the Colts.

 

[rufan]

Colts key to victory:1. Don't oversleep.

Considering how well your predictions turned out last week, not sure anybody cares what you think. Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with somebody picking the Colts, but continuing to make comments insinuating that the Jets have no business in this game is just ignorant. But keep it up, I like how it turned out last week.

 

[Raider Nation]

Colts key to victory:

1. Don't oversleep.

Considering how well your predictions turned out last week, not sure anybody cares what you think.

Oh boy... now you've gone and hurt my feelings. Could you imagine how bad I'd feel if I had ANY idea who you are? Get 'em next year.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Colts key to victory:

1. Don't oversleep.

Considering how well your predictions turned out last week, not sure anybody cares what you think. Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with somebody picking the Colts, but continuing to make comments insinuating that the Jets have no business in this game is just ignorant. But keep it up, I like how it turned out last week.

How is it ignorant, exactly? If your Jets get rolled, his comments will be spot on, no? Then, who's ignorant?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I agree that the Jets have a chance if the Colts also miss 3 FGs.

 

[Raider Nation]

Colts key to victory:

1. Don't oversleep.

Considering how well your predictions turned out last week, not sure anybody cares what you think. Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with somebody picking the Colts, but continuing to make comments insinuating that the Jets have no business in this game is just ignorant. But keep it up, I like how it turned out last week.

How is it ignorant, exactly? If your Jets get rolled, his comments will be spot on, no? Then, who's ignorant?

It's a very weird situation. Jets fans want to throw down with anyone who doesn't sound the trumpets and shout from the rooftops how OUTSTANDING this 9-7 team is. A 9-7 team which was unquestionably "gifted" a playoff berth. A 9-7 team which would be one of the five worst teams to play in a Super Bowl, should they beat the Colts. A 9-7 team which would easily be the worst team to win a Super Bowl, should they somehow accomplish that feat.Instead of just enjoying the ride and having a "We'll see!" mentality, they somehow need validation every step of the way. Honestly, I kind of understand the inferiority complex. First, they played their home games in GIANTS STADIUM. When they haven't had downright awful seasons, they've had years which end with unthinkably difficult losses. Losses so tough to swallow, some of their fanbase believes the franchise is jinxed.

I have nothing against this team. They are spunky and play hard. But let's stop acting like they are the '85 Bears.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

I'm embarrassed for you

 

[dickey moe]

Let's get the basic analysis out of the way: theJets are better than the Colts in three of the four quarters of the game.Jets pass defense > Colts pass defenseJets rush defense > Colts pass defenseJets rush offense > Colts rush offenseColts pass offense >>>>>>> Jets pass offense

That last one will be enough.

 

[buster c]

you must be talking about 1969

 

[Capella]

The Colts have played with fire all season. Sure, they've won 15 straight games that Manning has finished, but over half of them came by one score. The Colts haven't laid the hammer to teams, and it's not by choice; they're a good but not great team that lacks the ability to stop the run consistently, can't always get off the field defensively, and is an offense that requires perfection to succeed. They can't run consistently, and they need to manufacture several first downs to score TDs -- they don't score touchdowns in two plays very often.

at knocking the Colts for winning 15 straight, while forgetting to mention the Jets were 7-7 before walking into two free wins. Meanwhile, everything you said about the Colts offense in the above paragraph you could say about the Jets offense, only 10 times worse (well, the Jets can run the ball, but they need perfection and long drives as well...and they have a QB they are terrified to death of using).I can see taking the Jets in this game, but predicting a two-touchdown win is one of the most homeristic things I've ever read here. And that's saying something.

 

[Raider Nation]

The Colts have played with fire all season. Sure, they've won 15 straight games that Manning has finished, but over half of them came by one score. The Colts haven't laid the hammer to teams, and it's not by choice; they're a good but not great team that lacks the ability to stop the run consistently, can't always get off the field defensively, and is an offense that requires perfection to succeed. They can't run consistently, and they need to manufacture several first downs to score TDs -- they don't score touchdowns in two plays very often.

at knocking the Colts for winning 15 straight, while forgetting to mention the Jets were 7-7 before walking into two free wins.

In all fairness, given what we've witnessed the past two weeks, I think we can safely say that the Jets would have beaten the Bengals that night even if Cincinnati had given full effort for 60 minutes. The Colts laying down was the only gift they needed to make the playoffs.

 

[Capella]

The Colts have played with fire all season. Sure, they've won 15 straight games that Manning has finished, but over half of them came by one score. The Colts haven't laid the hammer to teams, and it's not by choice; they're a good but not great team that lacks the ability to stop the run consistently, can't always get off the field defensively, and is an offense that requires perfection to succeed. They can't run consistently, and they need to manufacture several first downs to score TDs -- they don't score touchdowns in two plays very often.

at knocking the Colts for winning 15 straight, while forgetting to mention the Jets were 7-7 before walking into two free wins.

In all fairness, given what we've witnessed the past two weeks, I think we can safely say that the Jets would have beaten the Bengals that night even if Cincinnati had given full effort for 60 minutes. The Colts laying down was the only gift they needed to make the playoffs.

True, but they were a 7-7 team. I only mention it because of his attempt to knock the Colts for winning 14 straight, as if it's not incredibly impressive no matter how it's done.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

And here I was, thinking Chase's silence all week might mean that he's realized the Jets are finally really up against it here.

I really think the Jets get clobbered.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

If the Jets win, it won't be because they score 28 points.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Colts key to victory:

1. Don't oversleep.

Considering how well your predictions turned out last week, not sure anybody cares what you think. Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with somebody picking the Colts, but continuing to make comments insinuating that the Jets have no business in this game is just ignorant. But keep it up, I like how it turned out last week.

How is it ignorant, exactly? If your Jets get rolled, his comments will be spot on, no? Then, who's ignorant?

It's a very weird situation. Jets fans want to throw down with anyone who doesn't sound the trumpets and shout from the rooftops how OUTSTANDING this 9-7 team is. A 9-7 team which was unquestionably "gifted" a playoff berth. A 9-7 team which would be one of the five worst teams to play in a Super Bowl, should they beat the Colts. A 9-7 team which would easily be the worst team to win a Super Bowl, should they somehow accomplish that feat.Instead of just enjoying the ride and having a "We'll see!" mentality, they somehow need validation every step of the way. Honestly, I kind of understand the inferiority complex. First, they played their home games in GIANTS STADIUM. When they haven't had downright awful seasons, they've had years which end with unthinkably difficult losses. Losses so tough to swallow, some of their fanbase believes the franchise is jinxed.

I have nothing against this team. They are spunky and play hard. But let's stop acting like they are the '85 Bears.

If the Jets won the Super Bowl, they'd be nearly as bad as the '83 Raiders. They pbviously wouldn't be as bad as the '80 Raiders, but still, that's pretty bad.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Colts have played with fire all season. Sure, they've won 15 straight games that Manning has finished, but over half of them came by one score. The Colts haven't laid the hammer to teams, and it's not by choice; they're a good but not great team that lacks the ability to stop the run consistently, can't always get off the field defensively, and is an offense that requires perfection to succeed. They can't run consistently, and they need to manufacture several first downs to score TDs -- they don't score touchdowns in two plays very often.

at knocking the Colts for winning 15 straight, while forgetting to mention the Jets were 7-7 before walking into two free wins.

In all fairness, given what we've witnessed the past two weeks, I think we can safely say that the Jets would have beaten the Bengals that night even if Cincinnati had given full effort for 60 minutes. The Colts laying down was the only gift they needed to make the playoffs.

True, but they were a 7-7 team. I only mention it because of his attempt to knock the Colts for winning 14 straight, as if it's not incredibly impressive no matter how it's done.

It's an incredibly impressive feat, don't get me wrong. I just think some people view winning 15 straight as the same as being invincible. In some cases, it might be. But in this case, winning those 15 straight games was not as dominant as it could be. Calling the Colts a team that should have won 12 of their last 15 but were "lucky" to win 15 of 15 doesn't mean they weren't an incredibly good team during that stretch.And sure, the Jets were 7-7, but now they're 11-7 with playoff wins over the AFC North Champion and "the hottest team in the NFL", both on the road. I think it's time to move past the 7-7 shtick, no?

 

[Han Solo]

The Colts have played with fire all season. Sure, they've won 15 straight games that Manning has finished, but over half of them came by one score. The Colts haven't laid the hammer to teams, and it's not by choice; they're a good but not great team that lacks the ability to stop the run consistently, can't always get off the field defensively, and is an offense that requires perfection to succeed. They can't run consistently, and they need to manufacture several first downs to score TDs -- they don't score touchdowns in two plays very often.

at knocking the Colts for winning 15 straight, while forgetting to mention the Jets were 7-7 before walking into two free wins.

In all fairness, given what we've witnessed the past two weeks, I think we can safely say that the Jets would have beaten the Bengals that night even if Cincinnati had given full effort for 60 minutes. The Colts laying down was the only gift they needed to make the playoffs.

True, but they were a 7-7 team. I only mention it because of his attempt to knock the Colts for winning 14 straight, as if it's not incredibly impressive no matter how it's done.

It's an incredibly impressive feat, don't get me wrong. I just think some people view winning 15 straight as the same as being invincible. In some cases, it might be. But in this case, winning those 15 straight games was not as dominant as it could be. Calling the Colts a team that should have won 12 of their last 15 but were "lucky" to win 15 of 15 doesn't mean they weren't an incredibly good team during that stretch.And sure, the Jets were 7-7, but now they're 11-7 with playoff wins over the AFC North Champion and "the hottest team in the NFL", both on the road. I think it's time to move past the 7-7 shtick, no?

u remind me of a guy that use to post here named jets94 or something like that...ur going to find out how a 7-7 team plays against a 14-0 team...what a rediculous post....anyway...may the force be with you

 

[Billy Bats]

Jets 28, Colts 13

I'm real glad I read that first and didn't waste my time with the whole post. I'm sure there are some great, valid football points in there, but I'm pretty sure all of them wouldn't add up to that conclusion. Good luck, though.

 

[gianmarco]

:subscribe:

Thanks, gianmarco. I'm pulling for you guys tomorrow.

Thanks bud. Doing the same. Not only am I hoping the NYJ win, I actually think they have a pretty good shot at it. I'm torn between totally tailgating and avoiding this game and actually watching some of it...........UGH!!!

 

[Raider Nation]

It's a very weird situation. Jets fans want to throw down with anyone who doesn't sound the trumpets and shout from the rooftops how OUTSTANDING this 9-7 team is. A 9-7 team which was unquestionably "gifted" a playoff berth. A 9-7 team which would be one of the five worst teams to play in a Super Bowl, should they beat the Colts. A 9-7 team which would easily be the worst team to win a Super Bowl, should they somehow accomplish that feat.

Instead of just enjoying the ride and having a "We'll see!" mentality, they somehow need validation every step of the way. Honestly, I kind of understand the inferiority complex. First, they played their home games in GIANTS STADIUM. When they haven't had downright awful seasons, they've had years which end with unthinkably difficult losses. Losses so tough to swallow, some of their fanbase believes the franchise is jinxed.

I have nothing against this team. They are spunky and play hard. But let's stop acting like they are the '85 Bears.

If the Jets won the Super Bowl, they'd be nearly as bad as the '83 Raiders.

The key to trolling is being subtle. Try again.

 

[Raider Nation]

Jets 28, Colts 13

I'm real glad I read that first and didn't waste my time with the whole post. I'm sure there are some great, valid football points. But I'm pretty sure all of them wouldn't add up to that conclusion. Good luck, though.

Ask Chase if he'll give you the Colts +14 for $1,000.

 

[Bob Magaw]

the line is colts -8.5 (bodog)

i'm not betting, but if i was, i take the jets and the points... i might even be interested in taking the jets and the money line (win outright)

i don't see the jets getting clobbered, unless they finish -2 or worse in turnovers... which could happen, as sanchez is a rookie, but hasn't been playing like one. against CIN, he set an NFL record for a rookie QB in a playoff game with 70%+ completion %.

they run the ball better and have a better defense than the colts... it isn't a stretch to think this could be a close, and eminently winnable game for the jets. i confess to in the past thinking chase suffered from homeritis, but i am "on the bandwagon" and think they have a legit chance.

colts obviously pass the ball better, but revis is the best cover corner in the game, bar none, so the other three DBs (more in nickle/dime) effectively only have to cover half the field. i expect IND to stack collie/garcon/clark opposite wayne... i agree how well they contain clark is a huge key to the game... pressuring manning would be nice, but he has such a quick release, multiple sacks not likely. keeping the colts in unfavorable third down situations would help a lot.

i think the jets can keep the colts at or under 17 points...

of course the jets would like to press their advantage running the ball (isn't shonn greene first RB in league history to rush for 100+ yards and a rushing TD in his first two playoff games?)... many expect a game more like last week for sanchez (they protected him and he only had about 100 passing yards?), but i think they surprise everybody with a big play or two to edwards/keller... if that happens, the jets will be playing with a lot of confidence in the second half.

prediction -

jets - 24

colts - 17

* jets have had a rollercoaster season...

started 3-0, then 1-6, 7-1 since (albeit last two regular season games, ESPECIALLY the colts game, kind of hinky )

perhaps not a huge surprise with rookie HC & QB (somewhat reminiscent of BAL & ATL last year)

since throwing 4 INTs against the pats week 11, in seven of the next eight games (including playoffs - DNP week 14 against bucs), sanchez had one bad game (3 INTs against ATL week 15), two games with 1 INT (CAR - week 12 and SD last week) and four games with no INTs (again, two of these fell into the controversial last two regular season games).

the defense has been impressive since giving up 31 points week 11 to NE, the 15 points by the colts week 16 being the most they have given up (again, manning pulled early)... in the last eight games (in which they are 7-1), they have given up - 6, 13, 3, 10, 15, 0, 14 & 14 (less than 10 PA per game average)...

while the last two regular season games were controversial, the two playoff wins have been impressive.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

The Colts have played with fire all season. Sure, they've won 15 straight games that Manning has finished, but over half of them came by one score. The Colts haven't laid the hammer to teams, and it's not by choice; they're a good but not great team that lacks the ability to stop the run consistently, can't always get off the field defensively, and is an offense that requires perfection to succeed. They can't run consistently, and they need to manufacture several first downs to score TDs -- they don't score touchdowns in two plays very often.

at knocking the Colts for winning 15 straight, while forgetting to mention the Jets were 7-7 before walking into two free wins.

In all fairness, given what we've witnessed the past two weeks, I think we can safely say that the Jets would have beaten the Bengals that night even if Cincinnati had given full effort for 60 minutes. The Colts laying down was the only gift they needed to make the playoffs.

True, but they were a 7-7 team. I only mention it because of his attempt to knock the Colts for winning 14 straight, as if it's not incredibly impressive no matter how it's done.

It's an incredibly impressive feat, don't get me wrong. I just think some people view winning 15 straight as the same as being invincible. In some cases, it might be. But in this case, winning those 15 straight games was not as dominant as it could be. Calling the Colts a team that should have won 12 of their last 15 but were "lucky" to win 15 of 15 doesn't mean they weren't an incredibly good team during that stretch.And sure, the Jets were 7-7, but now they're 11-7 with playoff wins over the AFC North Champion and "the hottest team in the NFL", both on the road. I think it's time to move past the 7-7 shtick, no?

Perfect storm for the Jets.San Diego was overrated to begin with; it was all about the win streak. Weak division. When they lost Williams early, they lost any chance at the Super Bowl. Their run D didn't get exposed thanks to that offense. But the Jets were the perfect team/matchup to do so, on both sides. Even down to Sanchez being able to play back home, helped. Mathis and Freeney this week, Mark. To top it off, the Chargers combust like they always do. Great job but, no, didn't convince me that they are up there with these other 3 teams.

And Cincy? Please, not impressed with where they were; not even with your, "AFC North Champ" crown you placed. Look, I'm impressed with the Jets -- great run and all, bright future, etc. But the buck stops here. Going into Indy to take on Manning is a whole nother story.

 

[r0llin_game]

Why the Colts will win:

Peyton Manning has seen Rex Ryan before.

2008: Indy 31 Balt 3

2007: Indy 44 Balt 20

2006: Indy 15 Balt 6 (Playoffs)

2005: Indy 24 Balt 7

IMO, the Ravens from when Rex was there remind me of the Jets of this season. QB managing games, heavy dose of the run game, tough, hard hitting defense, only the Ravens didn't have a shutdown corner like Revis.

In those 4 games, the Colts run defense only gave up one 50 yd rushing game to an individual RB. These two teams are very similar (BALT/NYJ). The Colts defense has quietly became one of the better defenses in the league. They might not be as good as the Jets, but they do what they need to and get the job done.

Rex might be able to bring all these blitz packages, but it's nothing that Peyton hasn't ever seen before. The key to the Colts offense will be Garcon and Collie getting open and catching balls. Revis did play a bit on Gates last week, but with Wayne usually lining up at the same side of the field, I don't expect Revis to be on Clark much, if at all. If the Colts get an early lead like they did last week against the Ravens, New York will need Mark Sanchez to have the game of his life, which I don't see happening. One plus for the Jets is that it doesn't look like Jerraud Powers will be playing.

Prediction: Colts 24 Jets 13.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

This isn't news, but here's the key: Keep the Colts offense off the field. Nothing else matters. Do what Miami did. The Jets will win that kind of game 99 times out of 100. Maybe any team would, and we just saw the bad Miami outcome.

You can even kick field-goals if you have six-and-seven minute drives. The Colts will have some non-scoring drives so you can win a game like that. Take a 9-3 halftime lead and run the ball down their throats. Let Manning get frustrated that he's getting the ball for five minutes a quarter.

Anything else and the Jets lose. But they could get a win with that kind of game.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

:subscribe:

Thanks, gianmarco. I'm pulling for you guys tomorrow.

Thanks bud. Doing the same. Not only am I hoping the NYJ win, I actually think they have a pretty good shot at it. I'm torn between totally tailgating and avoiding this game and actually watching some of it...........UGH!!!

That's a cool sentiment, but be honest: You're rooting for them because you think it gives New Orleans the best shot at a ring. You'd much rather face the Jets than the Colts.

 

[=Smackdown=]

Colts key to victory:

1. Don't oversleep.

Considering how well your predictions turned out last week, not sure anybody cares what you think. Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with somebody picking the Colts, but continuing to make comments insinuating that the Jets have no business in this game is just ignorant. But keep it up, I like how it turned out last week.

How is it ignorant, exactly? If your Jets get rolled, his comments will be spot on, no? Then, who's ignorant?

It's a very weird situation. Jets fans want to throw down with anyone who doesn't sound the trumpets and shout from the rooftops how OUTSTANDING this 9-7 team is. A 9-7 team which was unquestionably "gifted" a playoff berth. A 9-7 team which would be one of the five worst teams to play in a Super Bowl, should they beat the Colts. A 9-7 team which would easily be the worst team to win a Super Bowl, should they somehow accomplish that feat.Instead of just enjoying the ride and having a "We'll see!" mentality, they somehow need validation every step of the way. Honestly, I kind of understand the inferiority complex. First, they played their home games in GIANTS STADIUM. When they haven't had downright awful seasons, they've had years which end with unthinkably difficult losses. Losses so tough to swallow, some of their fanbase believes the franchise is jinxed.

I have nothing against this team. They are spunky and play hard. But let's stop acting like they are the '85 Bears.

A damn - couldn't have said it better myself.Thank God it ends today - another day of this Jets hysteria and I'd lose my mind.

Colts 30

Jets 13

 

[Rovers]

I don't like the fact that Maning has spanked Ryan's defenses in the past. I didn't like that the Jets came out in zone against SD. When they switched to man coverage and jammed the recievers, it threw SD off their game. Problem is, I don't know if that will work against Manning. Even if Revis can shut down Wayne, Clark, Garcon and Collie remain dangerous and difficult to cover. Kerry Rhodes can make some big plays, but at the expense of being lousy in coverage often. I expect Manning to throw at Rhodes as often as possible.

Ryan has one advantage, in that he has game planned against Manning in big games 4 times. I think he will dial up something different this time. While the Jets are very predticable on offense, they can be very unpredictable on defense. The key thing in this game to me is how well the Jets can disguise their coverage and blitzes pre-snap. That isn't a good thing for the Jets, because no one reads defenses better than Manning. This is where the game will be won or lost IMO. Advantage: Colts

I don't agree that the Jets have to finish the first half with a lead however, but they can't be behind by 10 or more points. The Jets running game is usaully better in the second half, after the defense tires a bit. The Jets can give up some points in the first half, but need to win time of possession, both to keep their own defense fresh, and to wear the Colts defense down. If they do that, I think they can win the 2nd half.

Sanchez HAS to make some plays. Of course, I said that before the SD game too, but I think he needs to connect on at least one long passing play, preferabley in the first half, throw for 175 yards with no INT's. The Colts CB's can be had, but is Sanchez good enough yet to do that?

My head says 27-20 Colts.

My heart says 24-20 Jets.

 

[Deepster]

Peyton Manning has seen Rex Ryan before. 2008: Indy 31 Balt 32007: Indy 44 Balt 202006: Indy 15 Balt 6 (Playoffs)2005: Indy 24 Balt 7

In those games, on a "per game" average, Manning has gone 17 for 28 (61%) for 236 yds, 2.3 TD's and 1 INT.My counters there would be:1) There's only 1 playoff game in there. One of the games (2005) was the first game of the season. It's unquantifiable, but there IS a difference to a playoff game.2) In playoff games in general, Manning has a propensity to throw a gag in there. In his last 9 playoff games, he's 5-4 with 10 TD's and 11 INT's. He's 3-2 at home over that time (and that includes a year with a Super Bowl win in it).While Jets fans are quick to overhype their team, I'm not nearly afraid of Manning as I would be playing Brady at home in a playoff game. I think there's a very good chance Manning goes for 1 TD/1 INT and I'm certainly not worried about Addai beating them.

 

[Gatorman]

This isn't news, but here's the key: Keep the Colts offense off the field. Nothing else matters. Do what Miami did. The Jets will win that kind of game 99 times out of 100. Maybe any team would, and we just saw the bad Miami outcome.

To me, this is the only way the Jets win. They need to have a Miami like game vs the Colts offensively, and not give up the big play.This sounds somewhat stupid and simplistic, but Revis on the dolphins is 4 more wins for that team, and why a team like the Jets "could" beat the colts.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

This isn't news, but here's the key: Keep the Colts offense off the field. Nothing else matters. Do what Miami did. The Jets will win that kind of game 99 times out of 100. Maybe any team would, and we just saw the bad Miami outcome.

To me, this is the only way the Jets win. They need to have a Miami like game vs the Colts offensively, and not give up the big play.This sounds somewhat stupid and simplistic, but Revis on the dolphins is 4 more wins for that team, and why a team like the Jets "could" beat the colts.

I think it's fair to say that Revis is a few wins for any team. It's like saying "You know your favorite receiver? He's gone. But what's worse, we're going to tempt you to throw to him. You can't even change your game plan too much because then you wouldn't be showing enough confidence in him. It would almost be better if he was injured and you could just focus on something else. Good luck, guys." The Dolphins could set a league record for TOP in a season if Revis was on that team.Manning without an effective Wayne could hurt the Colts. That young corps of receivers could get nervous in the conference championship game, and that could end a few drives, giving the Jets and opening, and...Not likely, but definitely possible.

 

[gianmarco]

:subscribe:

Thanks, gianmarco. I'm pulling for you guys tomorrow.

Thanks bud. Doing the same. Not only am I hoping the NYJ win, I actually think they have a pretty good shot at it. I'm torn between totally tailgating and avoiding this game and actually watching some of it...........UGH!!!

That's a cool sentiment, but be honest: You're rooting for them because you think it gives New Orleans the best shot at a ring. You'd much rather face the Jets than the Colts.

I'm being quite honest when I tell you the reason I'm rooting for the Jets is because of what Indy did in week 16. No other reason. If not for that, I wouldn't be rooting for either team, tbh.As for rooting for them because it gives New Orleans the best shot, our toughest challenge is this week, IMO. I don't care who we get to face in the Super Bowl as long as we're facing someone. All I'm going to say is, if we were to win this week, I'm not so sure that facing the NYJ would give us the best shot at winning it all.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

:subscribe:

Thanks, gianmarco. I'm pulling for you guys tomorrow.

Thanks bud. Doing the same. Not only am I hoping the NYJ win, I actually think they have a pretty good shot at it. I'm torn between totally tailgating and avoiding this game and actually watching some of it...........UGH!!!

That's a cool sentiment, but be honest: You're rooting for them because you think it gives New Orleans the best shot at a ring. You'd much rather face the Jets than the Colts.

I'm being quite honest when I tell you the reason I'm rooting for the Jets is because of what Indy did in week 16. No other reason. If not for that, I wouldn't be rooting for either team, tbh.As for rooting for them because it gives New Orleans the best shot, our toughest challenge is this week, IMO. I don't care who we get to face in the Super Bowl as long as we're facing someone. All I'm going to say is, if we were to win this week, I'm not so sure that facing the NYJ would give us the best shot at winning it all.

Maybe if you say this enough you will start to believe it. You're afraid of the Colts and that is why you're rooting for the Jets.

 

[Jackstraw]

Colts key to victory:

1. Don't oversleep.

Considering how well your predictions turned out last week, not sure anybody cares what you think.

Oh boy... now you've gone and hurt my feelings. Could you imagine how bad I'd feel if I had ANY idea who you are? Get 'em next year.

awesome. you just pulled rank on a football website.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Perfect storm for the Jets.San Diego was overrated to begin with; it was all about the win streak. Weak division. When they lost Williams early, they lost any chance at the Super Bowl. Their run D didn't get exposed thanks to that offense. But the Jets were the perfect team/matchup to do so, on both sides. Even down to Sanchez being able to play back home, helped. Mathis and Freeney this week, Mark. To top it off, the Chargers combust like they always do. Great job but, no, didn't convince me that they are up there with these other 3 teams.And Cincy? Please, not impressed with where they were; not even with your, "AFC North Champ" crown you placed. Look, I'm impressed with the Jets -- great run and all, bright future, etc. But the buck stops here. Going into Indy to take on Manning is a whole nother story.

SLBD next week before Jets-Saints:

The Colts were the perfect matchup for the Jets. They only had one quality WR, perfect for a team with one awesome corner. The Jets run D didn't get exposed thanks to that offense. The Colts always choke in the playoffs, and the Jets were the perfect team/matchup to do so, on both sides. Sanchez being able to play in a dome helped, and the crowd was out of the game early when the Jets took the lead. Manning stunk it up in the playoffs, big surprise. And you could see how the Colts were totally one dimensional -- the run D looked like a college team out there. Very impressive, for sure, but the Colts were overrated all season -- they barely beat the 49ers at home, for Pete's sake.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Why the Colts will win:

Peyton Manning has seen Rex Ryan before.

2008: Indy 31 Balt 3

2007: Indy 44 Balt 20

2006: Indy 15 Balt 6 (Playoffs)

2005: Indy 24 Balt 7

IMO, the Ravens from when Rex was there remind me of the Jets of this season. QB managing games, heavy dose of the run game, tough, hard hitting defense, only the Ravens didn't have a shutdown corner like Revis.

In those 4 games, the Colts run defense only gave up one 50 yd rushing game to an individual RB. These two teams are very similar (BALT/NYJ). The Colts defense has quietly became one of the better defenses in the league. They might not be as good as the Jets, but they do what they need to and get the job done.

Rex might be able to bring all these blitz packages, but it's nothing that Peyton hasn't ever seen before. The key to the Colts offense will be Garcon and Collie getting open and catching balls. Revis did play a bit on Gates last week, but with Wayne usually lining up at the same side of the field, I don't expect Revis to be on Clark much, if at all. If the Colts get an early lead like they did last week against the Ravens, New York will need Mark Sanchez to have the game of his life, which I don't see happening. One plus for the Jets is that it doesn't look like Jerraud Powers will be playing.

Prediction: Colts 24 Jets 13.

A blitz with Revis is very different from a blitz without him. Baltimore had much better pass rushers than the Jets currently have, so I doubt the Jets pass rush looks great, either. But the difference is those Ravens teams were never as good against the pass as this Jets team. Baltimore was always a stop the run first team, while the Jets are a stop the pass firs tteam. Big difference against Manning.I'm curious if we see Clowney active; without Powers, that might be an interesting play. Last week they wanted the extra CB in Strickland; they may want that again.

 

[LHUCKS]

We know who the Colts are, we know what the Jets Defense is.

What we don't know is how well Sanchez and the Jets offense will execute. To me it comes down to Jets offensive execution.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

It's a very weird situation. Jets fans want to throw down with anyone who doesn't sound the trumpets and shout from the rooftops how OUTSTANDING this 9-7 team is. A 9-7 team which was unquestionably "gifted" a playoff berth. A 9-7 team which would be one of the five worst teams to play in a Super Bowl, should they beat the Colts. A 9-7 team which would easily be the worst team to win a Super Bowl, should they somehow accomplish that feat.

Instead of just enjoying the ride and having a "We'll see!" mentality, they somehow need validation every step of the way. Honestly, I kind of understand the inferiority complex. First, they played their home games in GIANTS STADIUM. When they haven't had downright awful seasons, they've had years which end with unthinkably difficult losses. Losses so tough to swallow, some of their fanbase believes the franchise is jinxed.

I have nothing against this team. They are spunky and play hard. But let's stop acting like they are the '85 Bears.

If the Jets won the Super Bowl, they'd be nearly as bad as the '83 Raiders.

The key to trolling is being subtle. Try again.

I don't think this was fair, Chase Stuart started a Good Topic and had alot to add. What did you add, oh yeah almost forgot. ' Colts key to victory:

1. Don't oversleep.'

Yep, that was a Great break down.

Jets-23 Colts-17.

 

[Polar Dude]

Bottom line is that we are supposed to respect the Jets because in the last four weeks, the Colts and Bengals laid down so that the Jets could sneak into the playoffs, then they beat an incredibly overrated Bengals team that hadn't beaten anyone of any value all year other than the Steelers and Ravens, and they were fortunate enough to get paired up against the Chargers when they did their annual self-implosion.

Okay.

 

[Rovers]

Bottom line is that we are supposed to respect the Jets because in the last four weeks, the Colts and Bengals laid down so that the Jets could sneak into the playoffs, then they beat an incredibly overrated Bengals team that hadn't beaten anyone of any value all year other than the Steelers and Ravens, and they were fortunate enough to get paired up against the Chargers when they did their annual self-implosion.Okay.

Yep, that's it. The Jets can't run the ball. They have no defense. Good points. They just got lucky. SD would have lost to any team. The Jets have no chance at all. This is the sort of insightful objective football stuff I come here for. Posts like this, and "Raider Nation" really do sidetrack what was an otherwise good thread. Too bad. Trash talking should have a seperate forum.