I don't think people are appreciating the gravity of Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler. Both are heading north bigtime. I expect Marshall to be Top 5, ahead of Nicks, AJ Green, and Roddy. I expect Cutler to turn in his very best season.
I apparently found my "mostly hotly debated situation of the preseason" topic in Cutler. So I will either walk away less convinced that Cutler (and by extension Marshall) will do much . . . or you (collectively, not you individually) will get me to see the light and expect big things.Since you mentioned Marshall as a Top 5 candidate, I ask . . . W-H-Y? In 0 ppr leagues, his career best has been WR9. And that was when he played with Cutler . . . when he threw the ball 616 times. This begs the question . . . how are these two going to do so much better to vault up the rankings when in this day and age fantasy scoring has escalated?
In throwing those 616 passes in 2008, Cutler produced 4526/25 for 347 fantasy points to rank QB5. Last year, that same total would have ranked 9th. The Broncos that year were Top 3 in passing attemps and Bottom 5 in rushing attempts. The defense in was ranked Bottom 3 to Bottom 5 in almost every measurable category. Anyone care to guess who the leading rusher for Denver was in 2008? Give yourself a pat on the back if you guessed Peyton Hillis with 343 yards. (That was the season of recurring RB injuries for the Broncos.) Bottom line, they had 620 passes to go along with 387 rushes.
Looking at the Bears, I keep hearing that Cutler did not do better because of poor WR play. I don't know how to prove or disprove that, so I'll take the easy way out and just agree that that was an issue. That still doesn't change the fact that the Bears as a team have had much different tendancies than the Broncos did and are constructed differently than Denver was.
In the Cutler in Chicago era, the Bears have averaged 500 rushing attempts and 414 rushing attempts (with the trend migrating towards more emphasis on the run . . . they started at a 60/40 ratio but that has since moved to 51/49 pass/run). The defense is still above average to good. The running game actually should be even stronger this year with the addition of Michael Bush. Maybe I am missing something, but I read the situation as the Bears still having a vested interest in RUNNING the football.
Yes, Marshall is an upgrade. Maybe Jeffrey is too, but I generally would be conservative with projections of rookie receivers. Other than 2008, Cutler's best fantasy ranking was 11th. His 2nd best year in yardage was 3666 and his career high in TDs is 27. He's not going to put up a lot of fantasy points on the ground. Cutler's passing efficiency and peripheral passing numbers have remained fairly constant over his career. Basically, he's been the same guy as he's always been . . . whether it was in Denver or Chicago.
I will give him the benefit of the doubt and suggest he should do SOME WHAT better this year than the past few years . . . but I still don't see him approaching the big boys in terms of fantasy numbers. Several folks are pointing to the departure of Mike Martz as a good thing, which seems odd to me given that Martz has produced many years and receivers with fantasy numbers that were off the charts. Add everything up, and unless Cutler throws the ball even more than he did in Denver, I don't see how he or Marshall are Top 5 candidates.
Marshall's best season was actually 2007 when he scored 180 fantasy points. Last year, that would have ranked 7th. Let's say Cutler perfroms at the same rate as he did in 2008 but scale things down for fewer attempts. If he passed the ball 550 times (which to me seems like as good a number to pick out of a hat as any, Cutler would score 309 fantasy points this year (basically 89% of his 2008 total), which would make him a borderline fantasy QB1 if he played all 16 games. IMO, that's about the best I would expect out of Cutler this year. While 550 attempts might seem low to some, none of the FBG staffers even project Cutler to throw the ball even 500 times.
Since Cutler and Marshall's fates seem to be interlocked, I don't see Cutler throwing enough or doing much better on a ypa or TD scored basis, which limits the upside of both of them. I don't see either one hanging enough TDs on the scoreboard to make them approach the elite category. IMO, a good year for Cutler will net him in the QB12-15 range. A good year from Marshall will slot him in the WR10-15 range.
Has Jay Cutler improved since coming to Chicago?-2009 was his worst statistical season of his career and I think everyone could see that he was pressing, trying to make things happen.
-2011 Jay Cutler set career highs with his lowest INT % at 2.2 and Yards per completion at 12.7. In 2011, he also had the second most yards per game of his career and his 7.4 Yards per attempt beat his career year in Denver.
Red zone:
2011= 8 TD 0 INT
2010= 15 TD 3 INT
-So if Jay Cutler could put up those numbers with one of the worst receiving groups in the league...why are we putting limits on his potential in 2012 when adding in 3 new weapons?
Lets look at Tom Brady:
3 super bowl titles before the 2007 season and most thought they knew who he was.
2006 stats: 319/516 61.8% 3529 yards 24 TD 4.7 TD% 12 INT 6.8 Y/A 11.1 Y/C 220.6 Y/G
2007 stats: 398/578 68.9% 4806 yards 50 TD 8.7 TD% 8 INT 8.3 Y/A 12.1 Y/C 300.4 Y/G
The difference was two new additions. Now i'm not comparing Randy Moss/Wes Welker to Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery or Tom Brady/Jay Cutler. Simply stating that Tom Brady really improved when the talent around him got upgraded...when many thought they knew his ceiling. Jay Cutler improved his numbers in Chicago despite the talent around him.
You're also comparing different eras...the 2008 NFL rules are much different from the 2012 NFL rules...that favor passing games.
We have no way of knowing if anyone other than Marshall is an upgrade. Rookies are a total crapshoot. Everyone thought Bennett would be a stud, yet somehow now he is not talented and a poor receiver? I don't get it. His college numbers PLAYING WITH CUTLER were as good or better than Jeffrey's.
Nobody ever called Earl Bennett a stud. I think injuries have snubbed his development more than anything...he's still 25. The Chicago WR's as a whole are poor...again seeing them fall down, stop on routes, drop passes, not fight for passes, etc is irritating. I would argue that Earl Bennett is the best WR in Chicago. He works well in the slot, is shifty after the catch, and makes plays. Roman Harper's bounty hit on him last year really hurt his season.
As for your analogy, I don't see Cutler anywhere near in the same league as Brady, nor do I see the new breed of receivers in Chicago on par with the Patriots adding Moss, Welker, and Stallworth. Similarly, the Bears are LOSING one of the the greatest passing minds and supplier of elite fantasy passing numbers in NFL history while the Patriots had McDaniels and his schemes to work off of. IMO, Chicago's receiving corps in 2011 was better than Brady's receiving corps in 2006.
As I said before, I'm NOT comparing the two in terms of personnel...but rather in how much new talent brought in can help a situation. The Bears are losing one of the greatest offensive minds from the late 1990/2000's...but not of the modern era. Whether one WR group(NE or Chicago)was worse than the other isn't the point...they're both bad. The point is how much room for improvement can be had. Bears 2012 WR>>>>>2011
In 2011, Cutler had a career low in TD% and completion%. He also had the second lowest passer rating of his career and his ypa was the same as it was for his total time in Denver. Yes, he had decent red zone production last year, but taken on a whole his fantasy numbers and efficiency numbers were not great. Yes, he had a lower INT percentage, but in most fantasy leagues that's mostly inconsequential.
So with bad WR's he improved in some regards and didn't set career highs in others....sounds pretty expected. To flip those into FF numbers is an unknown. Remember the unknown of bringing in Corey Dillon...or Randy Moss...or Mike Martz's impact on the Rams.
After Tom Brady got good weapons:
3 of his last 4 seasons have been over 4,000 yards...compared to only 1 season his first 6 years as a starter.
3 of his last 4 seasons have been 36 touchdowns or more...compared to a previous high of 28 TDs in 6 seasons as a starter.
4 of his last 4 seasons have been 65% completion...compared to only two seasons in the 63% range.
I'm not saying Jay Cutler is Brady....but look how much better he performed when he finally had the correct tools.
Comparing Cutler in Denver to Cutler in Chicago: Higher completion%, higher ypa, higher yards/gm, higher passer rating, lower INT rate overall in his time in Denver compared to his total time in Chicago. I am not at this point willing to say that adding Marshall and a rookie WR and TE is enough to make Cutler a fantasy stud.
The fact that you continue to compare Cutler Denver to Cutler Chicago without bringing up the skill difference at WR is disturbing. Of course he was better in Denver, you can't build a good house with rotten wood.
All of that still doesn't change the other concerns I raised (good defense, good running game, not enough passing attempts, escalating fantasy numbers for elite QBs, etc.). And if the Bears were looking to tap into the new passing crazed era of the NFL, wouldn't they have shown signs of that last year and wouldn't they have been closer to the top when they still had Martz (THE all time passing mad scientist)?
The Bears tried at the beginning of the last two seasons to pass the ball a ton.
In 2010: Cutler threw the ball more than 27 times in all 5 games before the bye week and only 3 times after the bye week. Problem is Cutler only had 6 games prior to the bye week(if you count his concussion game vs NYG) and 9 games after the bye week.
In 2011: Cutler threw 114 times in the first three games(Bears 1-2 record), that's more pass attempts than any other 3 games stretch by more than 13 pass attempts(Chicago only lost one other game while Cutler started).
In the end, I didn't see Chicago as a team running ball because they wanted to...more because they had to. You can't make lemonade with apples. Now the Bears finally have pieces in place to throw the football. That's why you traded for Cutler and Marshall, why you spent a 2nd/4th round pick on skill position players. You don't buy a hot-rod to let it sit in the garage...you put that baby out there for everyone to see.
My question is why are you putting a limit on Jay Cutler's abilities now that he has weapons? He's a better QB now than he was at the age of 24. Plus the rules are more in favor. Nobody is saying he will challenge for QB1...but why can't he be a great value and perhaps break into the top 10 given his ADP?
