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Is Matt Forte the safest RB outside the top 3? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
what injury concern?
Food for thought.http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-bears-huddle/2012/05/matt-forte-why-no-surgery-in-2012/
Pots
Footballguy
He was terrible last year and his supporting cast doesn't look any better this year. No way do I take CJ2K and feel he's 'safe' value.
buck naked
Footballguy
Then you better downgrade everybody.
I'll take Forte over CJ too, but CJ was not "terrible" last year (at least not in the 2nd half of the season).
That wasn't very tasty food.That was a completely speculative article, based on the Bears (DURING A CONTRACT DISPUTE) letting it be known that they were worried about Forte's knees. There were no quotes from medical people who actually examined Forte, and all they suggested is that arthritis "COULD" develop. Not that it will, or even that if it did develop, it would happen soon enough to impact Forte's career.
This.
If I'm up in the 1st round, and the top 3 RBs and Rodgers are off the board, I' probably take CJ. I feel Forte is safer, but CJ has a higher ceiling. No way I'm taking MJD, especially if his holdout does last into September; similar to CJ last year, there's a difference (IMO) between being in shape and being conditioned for tackle football.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
couldn't blame anyone for rolling with Forte as RB#4 in PPR
simey
Footballguy
Last year was the first time Forte has ever missed a game, and he played in the pro bowl after his injury. As for Bush stealing GL carries, I don't recall Forte even getting a GL TD last year, and he had a great year until he sprained his MCL. I had him on my team, and he got lots of points off reception yards and rushing yards. He is a huge part of that offense whether he is scoring at the GL or not.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
If you are really looking for safe, it's hard to look past Steven Jackson. He's missed a few games here and there, but he's had 1200+ total yards every single year since his rookie year behind Faulk (with most of them over 1400). No other back can remotely compare to that level of consistency.
The upside is probably not quite what some of the other backs give you, but safe? You really can't find safer at RB.
The upside is probably not quite what some of the other backs give you, but safe? You really can't find safer at RB.
Wish there was a "like" button for this. 100% agree it was dirty negotiating by the bears. Do you think that they really would have resigned him with a deal similar to what ray rice got if they REALLY felt he had bum knees??
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I'd love some steven jackson, but he's still going in the third and there are so many other good players around there.
I could definitely take him if some other ones I like in that round are gone.
at this point, you might actually have a matthews/jackson choice.
I could definitely take him if some other ones I like in that round are gone.
at this point, you might actually have a matthews/jackson choice.
CJ is the next RB pick for me no question. Everything about him and the coaching staff points upwards for his fantasy stats this year.
Let's not forget in a "down-omg-this-guy-is-terrible-now-after-signing-contract-year" he still had 1465 all-purpose yards.
1465 yards in a down year. Yea, that's the definition of a safe pick.
Let's not forget in a "down-omg-this-guy-is-terrible-now-after-signing-contract-year" he still had 1465 all-purpose yards.
1465 yards in a down year. Yea, that's the definition of a safe pick.
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Ralph Furley
Footballguy
Total crapshoot....that's why I don't understand why in redrafts, people would pass over proven big play QB's(Brady, Brees,Rodgers) or WR's like Calvin, for the hope and and a prayer Forte, Johnson, et al. Last year I couldn't trade Cj2' for a roll of toilet paper, and now he is being projected as top 5 overall? Been playing FF, for well over a decade, and the game has changed. The days of the stud running backs are over.....teams do not employ the every down back anymore due to fatigue, injury and money. Why would I invest a #1 to anchor my team, when I am uncertain they are the anchor of their team? Todays NFL, is a passing league, just as the powers that be would like. The star player are QBs, and this league is set up, from a rules perspective, to make that happen. In all my years watching football I have never seen anything like the past few years from a pure passing/receiving numbers. It is like the Steroid era in baseball, except these are rule changes that are making this happen, not juiced up ball players.
So my point is, after the top 3 (cant say BIG), go QB or WR and wait on RB. Almost every team has a time share, and you can fill in the RB hole later in the draft. In my mind, there is nothing worse than playing the QB carousel all season long, however, old habits die hard.
So my point is, after the top 3 (cant say BIG), go QB or WR and wait on RB. Almost every team has a time share, and you can fill in the RB hole later in the draft. In my mind, there is nothing worse than playing the QB carousel all season long, however, old habits die hard.
packseasontix
Footballguy
I would much rather take CJ2k with a full offseason than Forte with yet another new offensive coordinator, 2 supposed top WRs, and a team that is trying to catch up to the Pack/Lions in the pass department.
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
Right, because all Forte does is put up RB1 fantasy numbers no matter who the OC is, the QB is, the WRs are, or how the other teams in the division are doing.
theplayer11
Footballguy
less RBs that carry the full load is exactly what makes them more valuable than ever this year. RBs drop off in a hurry. I've done plenty of mocks at #6 taking Braduy, Calvin, or RB and my teams are always better when I take a RB 1st
Texasmouth
Footballguy
Listening to one of the fantasy shows this morning they were saying Forte has NEVER been a goal line back and rarely scores from inside the 10. That eliminates the silly "they brought in a goal line back" theory.
Every RB in the NFL is an injury concern. Lets not forget Arian Foster was a huge question mark going into the season last year. Rice is the size of a 12 year old and McCoy had a lot of touches last year. No one is safe.
Forte was killing it and killed it the year before. RB is too shallow to pass on a potential stud like Forte.
Chris Johnson worries me a little but I would consider him as well.
I am picking 6 in a PPR 12 team redraft. Hoping for Forte. Would settle for CJ or McFadden.
With Richardson having surgery, ADP recovering and Matthews injured....it bumped some guys up.
I think Forte has the best chance to be top 5, possibly even top 3.
Every RB in the NFL is an injury concern. Lets not forget Arian Foster was a huge question mark going into the season last year. Rice is the size of a 12 year old and McCoy had a lot of touches last year. No one is safe.
Forte was killing it and killed it the year before. RB is too shallow to pass on a potential stud like Forte.
Chris Johnson worries me a little but I would consider him as well.
I am picking 6 in a PPR 12 team redraft. Hoping for Forte. Would settle for CJ or McFadden.
With Richardson having surgery, ADP recovering and Matthews injured....it bumped some guys up.
I think Forte has the best chance to be top 5, possibly even top 3.
Run It Up
Footballguy
His worse season he has 1k rushing 500 receiving and 4 tds (something forte matched in 12 games, but cj2k didnt miss any time).His best season he has 2k rushing and 500 receiving and 16 tds.
He averages 1400 rushing, 350 receiving, 50 receptions, 10.5 Tds and 0 missed games
So his floor is his worst season in which he had an abysmal year, still finished top 10 with 1.5k total yards, and his ceiling is probably pretty close to 2.5k total yards and 16 tds.
CJ2k also doesnt have a complimentary back that has already been gauranteed the goal line work...
Do you know the meaning of safe? Cause I would argue hes a safer pick than Lesean Mccoy also.
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sportsmonkey_j
Footballguy
no way id take CJ as a "safe" pick. Forte is safe, but Id be a little worried about Bush making a dent in his production. Id take MJD as the safest, once he signs. Steven Jackson is safe, but clearly a tier down from the next level Rbs.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Define safe, because I think you are all using the wrong word.
Texasmouth
Footballguy
I agree with this. The difference between the RB you get in the first and in the 4th-5th is just too big of a drop off. QB is deep. Its always deep. Yes, Rodgers, Brady and Brees score more but when you add them to the rest of the team you end up with, it wont be as good as if you grab two stud RB, two Stud WR and Romo or Rivers. I have gone over the scenarios about 20 times with different mocks I have done and the best team is RB-RB. By at least 10 PPG. WR is ridiculously deep. In the third round, you are grabbing junk RB. In the third round I have had my pick of top tier AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, Cruz, Nicks, Dez, etc. Stud WR. With the exception of Megatron, those guys had great seasons. When I went with a QB first round, the RB weren't as good and the WR were average. When I went with Megatron first, I still ended up with the likes of Redman, BJGE, type guys as my every week starters. Did not like that at all. When I went with Forte first, I ended up with Forte, St Jax (sometimes Sproles), AJ Green, Cruz, Romo/Rivers.I even waited a couple of times and ended up with Witten/Finley/Gates and still grabbed Rivers/Romo in the 6th. Rivers had his worst season last year. I think he will be better. There were solid QB in the 5th and 6th like Eli/Ryan/Peyton as well. Not saying this is the end all or anything, just my observations so far.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
the term is less risky.Forte, CJ2k and MJD are in that next tier after the BIG3 RBs.mcFadden, ADP etc. after them have severe injury issues.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Even in a non-ppr?
Run It Up
Footballguy
Totally, the guy who played 12 games looked great, for those 12 games.
True, but you knew he wouldn't play the other 4, so you could start another RB.Johnson, on the other hand, played all 16, and looked great in, what-3 of those 16? I'll take the RB who looks great in 12 games, then have to start a mediocre replacement over the guy who looks great in 3 games, and is mediocre (at best) in the other 13 games.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Well good luck with that guys.Ill wait till week 9 to bump this thread.
I agree that MJD Forte and CJ2K are definitely the tier 2 guys, and if MJD walked into camp today id say hes the safer pick. But between CJ2K and Forte I apparently am in the minority (of this thread at least).
Theres no way I can justify taking Forte this year (over CJ2K or MJD), no goal line work guarantees his paltry TD numbers stay paltry. No such hindrance in Tennessee as much as a few Ringer owners would have you believe.
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The problem with CJ is that while he will end up with decent end of the year stats, they aren't spread out very well. A ton of variance in the amount he scores. Start him every week and get 3 weeks of mediocre and then one week where you would beat everyone in the league.
I believe CJ will end up with fairly similar stats to Forte, but I'd much rather have the consistent producer than the guy that has a giant week followed by duds. Awesome in best ball format however, like guys such as Desean Jackson.
I believe CJ will end up with fairly similar stats to Forte, but I'd much rather have the consistent producer than the guy that has a giant week followed by duds. Awesome in best ball format however, like guys such as Desean Jackson.
renesauz
IBL Representative
This. Forte is certainly safe, but outside the top three I think McFadden has the most upside.
Rick James
Footballguy
Let's talk about Forte's poor TD production. Is there any way that was by design the last couple years (Martz)? Now that he's gone, could Forte get up to 10 TDs?
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Also have to agree with going upside over safety. the fantasy football season is short...it's about winning week to week, and McFadden will help you win the weeks he plays more than anyone else on the board after the big 3 (expect better per game numbers than Forte, MJD). Handcuff him or play the wire early in the season for the RB that emerge for the weeks McFadden misses. That said, I probably go Chris Johnson and then McFadden #5.'renesauz said:'Vector said:
butcher boy
Footballguy
Handcuffing McFadden is another issue with drafting him. Who is his handcuff? Last year, the risk in drafting him was much more manageable because you could just get Bush.Also have to agree with going upside over safety. the fantasy football season is short...it's about winning week to week, and McFadden will help you win the weeks he plays more than anyone else on the board after the big 3 (expect better per game numbers than Forte, MJD). Handcuff him or play the wire early in the season for the RB that emerge for the weeks McFadden misses. That said, I probably go Chris Johnson and then McFadden #5.'renesauz said:'Vector said:
jurb26
Footballguy
Handcuffing McFadden should not be an issue at all. You simply pay attention to who the back up is after week 1 and pick that guy up off of waivers in you're league. Nobody will be drafting the back up RBs in Oak unless you play in an unusually deep league. Nobody is going to rush to the WW to pick him up either unless you own Mcfadden. While I wouldn't expect McFadden or Bush type numbers from whoever that ends up being, I do expect productivity. Oak has a great offense for RB production and that will continue to be the case for whoever steps in for McFadden.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
No more Jeff Fisher and Vince Young. No Britt maybe. I've owned him the past two years, horrible timing, he just seems to get caught either from behind the los or before he breaks that 100 run like CJ2K.
Run It Up
Footballguy
This. Bush is locked in as the Goal line and short yardage. Would probably take an injury, which is far from impossible given Bush's history.
The reason Bush was such a great handcuff for DMC was because he had shown that he could put up good/great numbers if/when McFadden when down, and that he would be "the guy" if/when McFadden went down. We don't know if anyone of the other Oakland RBs will put up serviceable numbers (much less great ones) if/when McFadden goes down, nor do we know that it won't be some kind of RBBC which would negate the whole purpose of handcuffing DMC.And, in deep leagues, the WW option won't work. I play in 2 dynasty leagues, and Goodson, Jones, and Reece are owned in one, with all but Reece owned in the other one. I play in 1 redraft league, but we go 20 players (12 teams, no IDP), and I can all but guarantee Goodson and Jones will be drafted in that league. If you are in a small, or non-competitive, league, you can work the WW and pick up viable RBs off the WW, but in deeper leagues, it isn't that easy.
