ghostguy123
Footballguy
I hope you are not assuming that all I do is look at the numbers, cause I sure as hell don't.The simple answer is that he would have needed to have been more efficient with his opportunities. As I pointed out, his yards per target and conversion rate were not great.But to repeat, yes Blackmon did indeed have a very good rookie season. What the hell would he have needed to do playing with some of the worst QBs out there to show you otherwise??
Justin Blackmon - 133 targets, 64 catches, 48.1% conversion rate, 6.50 yards per target
You can say that the QB situation is to blame for his poor performance, but then how do you explain this?
Cecil Shorts - 106 targets, 55 catches, 51.9% conversion rate, 9.23 yards per target
For all the shortcomings of Gabbert and Henne, it's clear that Jacksonville's QB situation wasn't so bad that it completely excuses bad production. Shorts was excellent on the same team with the exact same passers. Arizona is a slightly different beast because all of their receivers struggled.
Larry Fitzgerald - 153 targets, 71 catches, 46.4% conversion rate, 5.22 yards per target
Andre Roberts - 113 targets, 64 catches, 56.6% conversion rate, 6.72 yards per target
Michael Floyd - 86 targets, 45 catches, 52.3% conversion rate, 6.53 yards per target
The fact that none of these guys thrived is indicative of a truly toxic situation, whereas the success of Shorts in Jacksonville pokes some holes in the idea that Henne and Gabbert are to blame for Blackmon's struggles. Being a rookie who was thrust into a prominent role with a big target on his back undoubtedly hurt his efficiency, but there were other first year players in similar situations who did better.
Justin Blackmon - 133 targets, 64 catches, 48.1% conversion rate, 6.50 yards per target
Josh Gordon - 96 targets, 50 catches, 52.1% conversion rate, 8.38 yards per target
Chris Givens - 81 targets, 42 catches, 51.9% conversion rate, 8.62 yards per target
TY Hilton - 91 targets, 50 catches, 54.9% conversion rate, 9.46 yards per target
Julio Jones (2011) - 96 targets, 54 catches, 56.3% conversion rate, 9.99 yards per target
AJ Green (2011) - 116 targets, 65 catches, 56.0% conversion rate, 9.11 yards per target
A big mistake people make in FF is just looking at the year end totals without analyzing how the player got there. This is another good example of that phenomenon. People really overrate how well Blackmon did last year. He was more of an accumulator than a playmaker, succeeding by virtue of sheer opportunity and not because he was effective when called upon. I'm still fairly high on his talent, but that's based more on what I think he might become than on what he was last year.
But when talking about the difference in efficiency between Blackmon and Shorts, didn't we already discuss a bit the difference between being covered by a team's #1 corners vs. their #2 corner??
Anyway, done with this conversation. Blackmon looks every bit the part of a very nice NFL WR in the making. Just needs to stop getting suspended.