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The Trent Richardson Thread (1 Viewer)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards
Given that Brown had 7 carries for 45 yards and a TD with a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter of the Tennessee game alone, I have to question the validity of these stats.

Nonetheless, the situational nonsense has been debunked a thousand times in various Richardson threads. Removing short yardage carries doesn't help him. Removing goaline carries doesn't help him, Removing clock killing carries doesn't help him. Removing 3rd and long draw plays doesn't help him. As others have pointed out, it's a completely disingenuous argument where you have to bend the stats to absurd levels to get things even remotely close, at which point he's still embarassingly behind.
This came up earlier and was addressed in post #2216. You seemed to disregard the "forcing the opponent to burn timeouts" part of the criteria.

The Colts had a 1 point lead, not 7, when they started their drive with about 8 minutes left to go in the game. Yes, Brown did carry the ball a number of times, but all of those carries came outside of the 2:00 minute warning and, more importantly, didn't force Tennessee to burn any timeouts (which was part of the criteria I used).

Before you start making accusations, questioning the validity of my statements, and say that I am bending stats, maybe you should make sure you know what you are talking about.
:lmao:

Sorry, I forgot to check all your other posts for fine print where you narrowed down to a situation so specific that pretty much no one in the entire league is going to have any kind of significant data in.

 
Yes, Brown did carry the ball a number of times, but all of those carries came outside of the 2:00 minute warning and, more importantly, didn't force Tennessee to burn any timeouts (which was part of the criteria I used).

.
:lol: What? So it's only "killing the clock" when you force the other team to use a timeout?
So you're saying that I should've counted runs with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter as "clock killing" runs then? If I had called them "timeout inducing runs" instead, would that have gotten your approval?

What definition do you think I should've used? If you don't like the definition I used, fine, but at least suggest what you think a suitable replacement definition is.

Otherwise, feel free to have that conversation with your shoe.
Frankly as I said in my first post in response to your original post, I think you spent a lot of time to say absolutely nothing.

Even with your narrow and irrelevant definitions of what constitutes "short yardage carries", it showed a very small discrepancy in the number of Richardson's syc versus Brown's syc.

Do you honestly see a difference between a carry from 3 yards, 4 yards and 5 yards with goal to go? Isn't the defense just as compacted on the short field?

Do you really think there's a difference in a run late in the 4th quarter versus a run in the 4th quarter where a team uses a timeout afterwards? Does the back know exactly when the other team will call a timeout? Like I said what if the other team has no more time outs?

On top of that you then tried to eliminate Brown's 3 long runs. Even after all of your weird manipulations, Brown still had a rather significant advantage in yards per carry.

Basically you spent 4 pages defending the indefensible. Richardson's season was absolutely as bad as everyone is claiming it was. You have not convinced anyone differently and without trying to be mean about it, the way you've tried to do it is almost laughable.

From the beginning I agreed that none of this means Richardson can not be more successful next season with a full offseason in the system and with perhaps a few tweaks to his body build.

I've said all I could, if you still think Richardson had a nice season, that's cool. Good luck.

 
"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards
Given that Brown had 7 carries for 45 yards and a TD with a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter of the Tennessee game alone, I have to question the validity of these stats.

Nonetheless, the situational nonsense has been debunked a thousand times in various Richardson threads. Removing short yardage carries doesn't help him. Removing goaline carries doesn't help him, Removing clock killing carries doesn't help him. Removing 3rd and long draw plays doesn't help him. As others have pointed out, it's a completely disingenuous argument where you have to bend the stats to absurd levels to get things even remotely close, at which point he's still embarassingly behind.
This came up earlier and was addressed in post #2216. You seemed to disregard the "forcing the opponent to burn timeouts" part of the criteria.

The Colts had a 1 point lead, not 7, when they started their drive with about 8 minutes left to go in the game. Yes, Brown did carry the ball a number of times, but all of those carries came outside of the 2:00 minute warning and, more importantly, didn't force Tennessee to burn any timeouts (which was part of the criteria I used).

Before you start making accusations, questioning the validity of my statements, and say that I am bending stats, maybe you should make sure you know what you are talking about.
:lmao:

Sorry, I forgot to check all your other posts for fine print where you narrowed down to a situation so specific that pretty much no one in the entire league is going to have any kind of significant data in.
Did you also "forget" that the Colts didn't have a 7 point lead, like you said they did, when Brown has those carries....or was that an argument from ignorance? Based on your poor memory, it sounds like "I have to question the validity of" your statements.

Sorry, eh? If you want to apologize for anything, be sorry that you didn't check the drive log before making a statement about an easily confirmable historic event...and be sorry for continuing to be smug, even after being shown your error, instead acknowleding you were wrong and/or quietly fading out of this thread until you had something pertinent to say.

If you're sorry for that, then yeah, apology accepted.

 
"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards
Given that Brown had 7 carries for 45 yards and a TD with a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter of the Tennessee game alone, I have to question the validity of these stats.

Nonetheless, the situational nonsense has been debunked a thousand times in various Richardson threads. Removing short yardage carries doesn't help him. Removing goaline carries doesn't help him, Removing clock killing carries doesn't help him. Removing 3rd and long draw plays doesn't help him. As others have pointed out, it's a completely disingenuous argument where you have to bend the stats to absurd levels to get things even remotely close, at which point he's still embarassingly behind.
This came up earlier and was addressed in post #2216. You seemed to disregard the "forcing the opponent to burn timeouts" part of the criteria.

The Colts had a 1 point lead, not 7, when they started their drive with about 8 minutes left to go in the game. Yes, Brown did carry the ball a number of times, but all of those carries came outside of the 2:00 minute warning and, more importantly, didn't force Tennessee to burn any timeouts (which was part of the criteria I used).

Before you start making accusations, questioning the validity of my statements, and say that I am bending stats, maybe you should make sure you know what you are talking about.
:lmao:

Sorry, I forgot to check all your other posts for fine print where you narrowed down to a situation so specific that pretty much no one in the entire league is going to have any kind of significant data in.
Did you also "forget" that the Colts didn't have a 7 point lead, like you said they did, when Brown has those carries....or was that an argument from ignorance? Based on your poor memory, it sounds like "I have to question the validity of" your statements.

Sorry, eh? If you want to apologize for anything, be sorry that you didn't check the drive log before making a statement about an easily confirmable historic event...and be sorry for continuing to be smug, even after being shown your error, instead acknowleding you were wrong and/or quietly fading out of this thread until you had something pertinent to say.

If you're sorry for that, then yeah, apology accepted.
First of all, the Colts had a 3 point lead. It was 23-20 with under 8 minutes left. Brown then put the game away with a great drive. Did the Titans think the Colts weren't going to run the ball and milk the clock? Who gives if they didn't call timeouts? Lots of teams don't burn them until they have to and since, get this, Brown finished his great drive (did TRich have a drive like this all year?) with an 11 yard TD to ice the game. Of course he didn't have any carries under 2 minutes. He ran in a TD with 3:01 left. Oh, I see, using your guys RBBC thoughts, maybe the Colts would have rather run 3 unsuccessful runs with TRich from the 11 and let the Titans burn their timeouts and only gotten a 6 point lead, thus allowing the Titans to have a chance to win. The Titans scored a TD in 1 minute, so maybe the Colts would have lost thanks to TRich.

Seriously, walk away from this thread. Your examples and your cherry picking are so bad that they still don't make TRich look good. You highlight one game where Brown ices the game with 7-43 1 TD, which unless you can find it seems like a better series than TRich had all year. Coincidentally, TRich got 2 carries on that same drive for 3 yards. Brown and Havili got the two short yardage runs on that drive, so TRich only got two 1st and 10 opportunities and still only managed 1.5 ypc.

No wonder why you want to ignore that drive, it literally sums up the entire year for TRich that you are trying to mold and shape into something better. Brown outplays him and they give Brown the red zone carries to ice the game. TRich averages a piddly 1.5 ypc and another Colts runner (their FB) on short yardage gets a 4 yard carry.

 
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Yes, Brown did carry the ball a number of times, but all of those carries came outside of the 2:00 minute warning and, more importantly, didn't force Tennessee to burn any timeouts (which was part of the criteria I used).

.
:lol: What? So it's only "killing the clock" when you force the other team to use a timeout?
So you're saying that I should've counted runs with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter as "clock killing" runs then? If I had called them "timeout inducing runs" instead, would that have gotten your approval?

What definition do you think I should've used? If you don't like the definition I used, fine, but at least suggest what you think a suitable replacement definition is.

Otherwise, feel free to have that conversation with your shoe.
Frankly as I said in my first post in response to your original post, I think you spent a lot of time to say absolutely nothing.

Even with your narrow and irrelevant definitions of what constitutes "short yardage carries", it showed a very small discrepancy in the number of Richardson's syc versus Brown's syc.

Do you honestly see a difference between a carry from 3 yards, 4 yards and 5 yards with goal to go? Isn't the defense just as compacted on the short field?

Do you really think there's a difference in a run late in the 4th quarter versus a run in the 4th quarter where a team uses a timeout afterwards? Does the back know exactly when the other team will call a timeout? Like I said what if the other team has no more time outs?

On top of that you then tried to eliminate Brown's 3 long runs. Even after all of your weird manipulations, Brown still had a rather significant advantage in yards per carry.

Basically you spent 4 pages defending the indefensible. Richardson's season was absolutely as bad as everyone is claiming it was. You have not convinced anyone differently and without trying to be mean about it, the way you've tried to do it is almost laughable.

From the beginning I agreed that none of this means Richardson can not be more successful next season with a full offseason in the system and with perhaps a few tweaks to his body build.

I've said all I could, if you still think Richardson had a nice season, that's cool. Good luck.
Again, you spend 3 paragraphs telling me you don't like the definitions I chose for short yardage situations...but what is your definition? Still, nothing. You complain that you don't like my definition, but you don't provide an alternate definition. Do you just like to complain for the sake of complaining?

As I said in my OP, I thought TRich was better in short yardage situations. If I am going to make this claim, I need to make a definition of what short yardage is. I made defintions I thought were reasonable, then I looked at the data. If you don't like my definitons, that's fine, but how would you define short yardage?

"Even with your narrow and irrelevant definitions of what constitutes "short yardage carries"..." Seriously? <2 yards to get a 1st down is an irrelevant definition of short yardage? Man....then there are a lot of people who are using the wrong definition. Please, tell all these people that they have the wrong definition:

https://www.google.com/#q=short%20yardage%20football%20plays

A definition has to be narrow, or it's worthless. If your definition of short yardage is anything less than 30 yards, then it doesn't have much value, does it?

"Do you really think there's a difference in a run late in the 4th quarter versus a run in the 4th quarter where a team uses a timeout afterwards? Does the back know exactly when the other team will call a timeout?"

Yes, yes I do. You do watch football, right? You know those plays, near the end of the game, when the offense has a lead and runs the ball up the middle on 1st, 2nd, and often 3rd down to either force the other team to burn all of their timeouts and/or take as much time off the clock as possible? Yeah, that's what I'm referring to with "clock killing" plays. First off, you'd have to define what "late in the game" means. Is that under 5 minutes? Under 4? What arbitrary number do you pick? Judging on your responses so far, no matter what time limit I chose, you would've told me I chose the wrong one. So, I didn't set a time limit. If I set a time limit, someone would cry foul because I included a run at 2:48 but not a run at 3:02.

I personally didn't think the runs against Seattle should be included in the data set because the Colts only had a 3 point lead, they were passing the ball during the first two sets of downs, and they were in field goal range at the end of the drive (which, imo, was because they were trying to get a FG, not burn clock).

"Do you honestly see a difference between a carry from 3 yards, 4 yards and 5 yards with goal to go? Isn't the defense just as compacted on the short field?" Yes, yes I do. It's not necessarily about how compact the D is; it's about the plays that the offense is likely to run. Would you see a QB sneak from the 5 yard line? Why not...the defense is just as compated? If anything, I should've only considered carries of 2 yards and less with goal to go so that I was consistent.

As I said earlier in post #2289, which you may have missed becuase you were talking to your shoe, Football Outsiders uses a stat that they call "power success" to rank O-line and RBs. "Power success measures the success of specific running plays rather than the distance. This number represents how often a running attempt on third or fourth down, with two yards or less to go, achieved a first down or touchdown. Since quarterback sneaks, unlike scrambles, are heavily dependent on the offensive line, this percentage does include runs by all players, not just running backs. This is the only stat given that includes quarterback runs. It is not adjusted based on game situation or opponent."

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

"Eliminating" Brown's long carries was just to remind certain people who only look at YPC that a handful of runs made Brown's YPC look really good. That does not mean that the Colts' O-line is good. It wasn't meant to be a knock on Brown - he is really fast and great in open space - as much as it was to say don't let that skew your perception of the Colts' line. Luck has been hit more than any othe QB the last 2 seasons.

"Richardson's season was absolutely as bad as everyone is claiming it was." The point, which I've said a number of times, is that Richardson did well in short yardage situations. He also perfomed well in pass protection. I agree with others in that the Colts didn't bring him in merely for those reasons and they expected more out of him, but that doesn't mean he didn't perform those tasks well. Did he do poorly running the ball in most situations? Absolutely. But he also did well in some situations. He did well in short yardage. He did well in pass protection (or at least better than Brown). I haven't looked closely at the stats, but I think there were also times that he did well catching the ball. You're acting as if TRich literally did nothing right the entire season. I don't believe that is the case, and I believe the data supports that.

"You have not convinced anyone differently..." I didn't expect to. I was throwing food for thought out about TRich in short yardage and how Ballard coming back might affect that. If your brain is incredibly well-nourished, only eats caviar, and you think I'm throwing haggis out on the table...then by all means, don't eat it. But if that is the case, I'd highly recommend you cut back on the caviar; I hear too much mercury in the body causes people to have conversations with their shoe.

 
"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards
Given that Brown had 7 carries for 45 yards and a TD with a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter of the Tennessee game alone, I have to question the validity of these stats.

Nonetheless, the situational nonsense has been debunked a thousand times in various Richardson threads. Removing short yardage carries doesn't help him. Removing goaline carries doesn't help him, Removing clock killing carries doesn't help him. Removing 3rd and long draw plays doesn't help him. As others have pointed out, it's a completely disingenuous argument where you have to bend the stats to absurd levels to get things even remotely close, at which point he's still embarassingly behind.
This came up earlier and was addressed in post #2216. You seemed to disregard the "forcing the opponent to burn timeouts" part of the criteria.

The Colts had a 1 point lead, not 7, when they started their drive with about 8 minutes left to go in the game. Yes, Brown did carry the ball a number of times, but all of those carries came outside of the 2:00 minute warning and, more importantly, didn't force Tennessee to burn any timeouts (which was part of the criteria I used).

Before you start making accusations, questioning the validity of my statements, and say that I am bending stats, maybe you should make sure you know what you are talking about.
:lmao:

Sorry, I forgot to check all your other posts for fine print where you narrowed down to a situation so specific that pretty much no one in the entire league is going to have any kind of significant data in.
Did you also "forget" that the Colts didn't have a 7 point lead, like you said they did, when Brown has those carries....or was that an argument from ignorance? Based on your poor memory, it sounds like "I have to question the validity of" your statements.

Sorry, eh? If you want to apologize for anything, be sorry that you didn't check the drive log before making a statement about an easily confirmable historic event...and be sorry for continuing to be smug, even after being shown your error, instead acknowleding you were wrong and/or quietly fading out of this thread until you had something pertinent to say.

If you're sorry for that, then yeah, apology accepted.
First of all, the Colts had a 3 point lead. It was 23-20 with under 8 minutes left. Brown then put the game away with a great drive. Did the Titans think the Colts weren't going to run the ball and milk the clock? Who gives if they didn't call timeouts? Lots of teams don't burn them until they have to and since, get this, Brown finished his great drive (did TRich have a drive like this all year?) with an 11 yard TD to ice the game. Of course he didn't have any carries under 2 minutes. He ran in a TD with 3:01 left. Oh, I see, using your guys RBBC thoughts, maybe the Colts would have rather run 3 unsuccessful runs with TRich from the 11 and let the Titans burn their timeouts and only gotten a 6 point lead, thus allowing the Titans to have a chance to win. The Titans scored a TD in 1 minute, so maybe the Colts would have lost thanks to TRich.

Seriously, walk away from this thread. Your examples and your cherry picking are so bad that they still don't make TRich look good. You highlight one game where Brown ices the game with 7-43 1 TD, which unless you can find it seems like a better series than TRich had all year. Coincidentally, TRich got 2 carries on that same drive for 3 yards. Brown and Havili got the two short yardage runs on that drive, so TRich only got two 1st and 10 opportunities and still only managed 1.5 ypc.

No wonder why you want to ignore that drive, it literally sums up the entire year for TRich that you are trying to mold and shape into something better. Brown outplays him and they give Brown the red zone carries to ice the game. TRich averages a piddly 1.5 ypc and another Colts runner (their FB) on short yardage gets a 4 yard carry.
They played twice last year, and the OP didn't indicate which game. Since he was talking about a 7 point lead, which didn't happen in either game, and 7 carries for 45, which also didn't happen in either game, I still have no idea which game he is referring to.

So the game at TN...TRich had 2 carries for 3 yards on that drive. Yup. Both carries came on 1st and 10. Has anything in my post been about TRich doing well in long yardage situations? Seriously, anything at all? I agree completely - he sucked in longer-yardage situations. What does that have to do with the price of tea in China? It's completely irrelevant to what we've been talking about the entire time.

I've said that TRich did well in short yardage situations. Picking 2 plays from 1st and 10 aren't good "gotcha" plays to pick. If you want to look at just 2 plays to prove me wrong about short yardage, I'm sure you can find them, but those 2 aren't it.

And I'm the one cherry picking? You're trying to cherry pick, but you're grabbing acorns instead. If you're going to go that route, at least try to make it a fruit...apple or something.

 
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Jrodicus said:
Again, you spend 3 paragraphs telling me you don't like the definitions I chose for short yardage situations...but what is your definition? Still, nothing. You complain that you don't like my definition, but you don't provide an alternate definition. Do you just like to complain for the sake of complaining?
Why would I create a definition for something that has absolutely no relevance to the topic at hand? You are the one trying to create some sort of bizzare argument that Donald Brown wasn't that much better than Trent Richardson last season due to usuage. I have no interest in creating the parameters of what constitues a short yardage carry. You know why? Most workhorse backs in the NFL get short yardage carries and thy still manage to hve a season ending ypc above 3.0.

However, even if I wanted to accept that every weird metric that you created was perfectly legitimate - you still haven't shown that Richardson and Brown's seasons were remotely comparable.

Brown's longs runs skewed his ypc? Holy #### I think you're onto something. SO what you're saying is the farther you run on each carry, the better your ypc is. Next you're going to tell me that Richardson's ypc were only so low because of all the times he was dropped for a loss or only made it back to the line of scrimmage.

So you're still sticking with "clock killing carries" only occur when the other team uses a time-out after the carry. Guess since I don't watch football, I can't argue with that one.

When you need to argue how your point makes sense with seven different people - perhaps that should tell you that your point doesn't make any sense. Yet somehow you still seem to be lashing out at all of those people, as if they're the ones that seem to be missing something.

If you're only point was that Richardson was good in short yardage situations - and at this point I don't think you really know what you're point was, since you've been all over the place - yes he was. But so was Brown and Bradshaw. It did seem that you brought up his short yardage carries to show that his ypc compared to Brown's wasn't as bad as it seems.

If you think Ballard getting goal-line carries will be good for Richardson's fantasy value, I'd disagree. Maybe I'm just being a dullard there as well though.

Perhaps you're just a misunderstood genius like Christopher Columbus and much like we all soon discovered that the world was round and not indeed flat, we'll eventually see that Richardson did not indeed suck in 2013, it just seemed that way to the ignorant masses.

 
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Jrodicus said:
Again, you spend 3 paragraphs telling me you don't like the definitions I chose for short yardage situations...but what is your definition? Still, nothing. You complain that you don't like my definition, but you don't provide an alternate definition. Do you just like to complain for the sake of complaining?
Why would I create a definition for something that has absolutely no relevance to the topic at hand? You are the one trying to create some sort of bizzare argument that Donald Brown wasn't that much better than Trent Richardson last season due to usuage. I have no interest in creating the parameters of what constitues a short yardage carry. You know why? Most workhorse backs in the NFL get short yardage carries and thy still manage to hve a season ending ypc above 3.0.

However, even if I wanted to accept that every weird metric that you created was perfectly legitimate - you still haven't shown that Richardson and Brown's seasons were remotely comparable.

Brown's longs runs skewed his ypc? Holy #### I think you're onto something. SO what you're saying is the farther you run on each carry, the better your ypc is. Next you're going to tel me that Richardson's ypc were only so low because of all the times he was dropped for a loss or only made it back to he line of scrimmage.

When you need to argue how your point makes sense with seven different people - perhaps that should tell you that your point doesn't make any sense. Yet somehow you still seem to be lashing out at all of those people, as if they're the ones that seem to be missing something.

Perhaps you're just a misunderstood genius like Christopher Columbus and much like we all soon discovered that the world was round and not indeed flat, we'll eventually see that Richardson did not indeed suck in 2013, it just seemed that way to the ignorant masses.
Please, feel free to continue the ad hominem and straw man tactics as they go a very long way in disproving that TRich performed better than Brown in short yardage situations.

If you don't care about short yardage situations, that's fine, but some people do. Feel free to ignore the post.

But, if you're going to come at me, attack my logic, and accuse me of deliberately skewing data, then I am going to respond.

 
Jrodicus said:
Again, you spend 3 paragraphs telling me you don't like the definitions I chose for short yardage situations...but what is your definition? Still, nothing. You complain that you don't like my definition, but you don't provide an alternate definition. Do you just like to complain for the sake of complaining?
Why would I create a definition for something that has absolutely no relevance to the topic at hand? You are the one trying to create some sort of bizzare argument that Donald Brown wasn't that much better than Trent Richardson last season due to usuage. I have no interest in creating the parameters of what constitues a short yardage carry. You know why? Most workhorse backs in the NFL get short yardage carries and thy still manage to hve a season ending ypc above 3.0.

However, even if I wanted to accept that every weird metric that you created was perfectly legitimate - you still haven't shown that Richardson and Brown's seasons were remotely comparable.

Brown's longs runs skewed his ypc? Holy #### I think you're onto something. SO what you're saying is the farther you run on each carry, the better your ypc is. Next you're going to tel me that Richardson's ypc were only so low because of all the times he was dropped for a loss or only made it back to he line of scrimmage.

When you need to argue how your point makes sense with seven different people - perhaps that should tell you that your point doesn't make any sense. Yet somehow you still seem to be lashing out at all of those people, as if they're the ones that seem to be missing something.

Perhaps you're just a misunderstood genius like Christopher Columbus and much like we all soon discovered that the world was round and not indeed flat, we'll eventually see that Richardson did not indeed suck in 2013, it just seemed that way to the ignorant masses.
Please, feel free to continue the ad hominem and straw man tactics as they go a very long way in disproving that TRich performed better than Brown in short yardage situations.

If you don't care about short yardage situations, that's fine, but some people do. Feel free to ignore the post.

But, if you're going to come at me, attack my logic, and accuse me of deliberately skewing data, then I am going to respond.
You responded before I edited my post - but that's ok because I think we spun our wheels enough.

I really think you should go back and re-read all that was said. You may be surprised.

And I do apologize for any ad hominem attack (while denying the straw man accusation), that's not sually my style and it was not necessary.

 
Jrodicus said:
MoveToSkypager said:
Jrodicus said:
pizzatyme said:
So, 57% of 350 carries is a committee, but 50% of 600 carries is not a committee? Got it!

What about passing downs?

Is Forte in a committee?
Only if the game is on Thursday...or it's a full moon...or if the RB is left handed. Otherwise, it's not a RBBC.
Teasing numbers to fit an argument is more you than anyone else in this thread.
Dude, I set what I thought was a reasonable criteria for short yardage situations, then looked at the data - not the other way around. You apparently don't like the results, so you feel a need to accuse me of being unscrupulous.

By all means, feel free to make your own definition of short yardage situations, and look at the data yourself.

I'd offer to look at the data for you, using your definitions, but that'd be pointless since you obviously can't trust me not to cook the numbers.

You don't like my definition of short yardage situations? Fine. What definitions do you think I should've used?
I told you what to do in about 60 words. It wouldn't be very difficult.

 
wow

this thread is a mess
:goodposting:

Isn't the issue of the impact of "Trent Richardson to Colts for a 1st rounder" kind of settled now?

There's more valuable info in the old "Trent Richardson" thread, you can see what people were saying about TR before all this started and you can move forward into 2014 redraft and dynasty.

 
Jrodicus said:
MoveToSkypager said:
Jrodicus said:
pizzatyme said:
So, 57% of 350 carries is a committee, but 50% of 600 carries is not a committee? Got it!

What about passing downs?

Is Forte in a committee?
Only if the game is on Thursday...or it's a full moon...or if the RB is left handed. Otherwise, it's not a RBBC.
Teasing numbers to fit an argument is more you than anyone else in this thread.
Dude, I set what I thought was a reasonable criteria for short yardage situations, then looked at the data - not the other way around. You apparently don't like the results, so you feel a need to accuse me of being unscrupulous.

By all means, feel free to make your own definition of short yardage situations, and look at the data yourself.

I'd offer to look at the data for you, using your definitions, but that'd be pointless since you obviously can't trust me not to cook the numbers.

You don't like my definition of short yardage situations? Fine. What definitions do you think I should've used?
I told you what to do in about 60 words. It wouldn't be very difficult.
Your method would work for variable data if the purpose was to define short yardage plays based on the frequency that the Colts' ran on a given down and yardage to go. Then you could take however many standard deviations you wanted to pick as short yardage...which is going to be relative to the team. Of course, this would skew the data since "short yardage" for one team might end up being 4 yards and for another team it could be less than 1 yard.

However, this isn't variable data; it's attribute data. Either it's a short yardage play, or it's not. I'm looking define if it's red or blue, not what shade of purple it is.

I understand what you proposed, but I do not think it applies in this situation.

 
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I still have no idea why we are talking about "short yardage situations".

I don't even think NFL teams talk this much about short yardage situations where they actually matter.

Even if Richardson was indeed better than Brown in short yardage situations......................so....................what????????? Really, why does that even matter? I have literally never heard of this as a topic.

 
I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.
meh
Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.
I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.
What matters here is the effect it has on fanatsy football.YAY Trent made 1 yard on 4th and 1, that's 1 yard inc fantasy football.

More yards per game is what people want/need since they are concerned with fantasy football.

 
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Watch out for Ballard this year, he could steal a lot of snaps. People can keep talking up Richardson all they want. He is not good, not because he didn't know the playbook but because he makes 30 cuts and hops before he finds a hole.

ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells expects the team's running back position to be a "wide-open competition" for 2014.

Wells interestingly adds that he'd expect free agent Donald Brown, if re-signed, to enter camp as Indy's No. 3 back behind Trent Richardson and Vick Ballard. If that's the case, we wouldn't anticipate Brown staying put. Despite T-Rich's 2013 struggles, the Colts will give him every opportunity to win the 2014 starting role after trading a first-round pick for him early last season.
 
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.


If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)

 
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.

If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)
Was Trent doing great for the Browns before he was traded? I cannot get excited about a guy whose highest rushing total this season was 64 yards and had a six game streak of rushing totals of 22 yards or less. His one benefit was supposed to be his GL carries and he only scored 4 TDs total. You're not worried about him? Those deficiencies are not just playbook related, that is talent related. He was out played by Donald "freakin" Brown who is being reported as the #3 RB if he comes back.

 
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.

If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)
Every time I think I am out, they drag me back in. Since when is a week 2 trade mid-season? People are "stuck" on, with playoffs, a 16 game stint with the Colts. If he didn't get it by 16 games, he may never get it. RB is the easiest position to learn, which is why you get RBs that jump in for injuries and go nuts, rookie RBs that do great and traded RBs play well.

Sure, he may play better next year, but that will happen if he gets better as a RB. If you think his problem is not getting the system then you don't get the RB position. His problem was that in 16 games with the Colts he was abysmal, historically awful for a guy with that many carries. He was the worst "starting" RB in the NFL other than the picked off the streets, over the hill, never going to play again McGahee.

 
Rotoworld:

sked Friday if he would still make the Trent Richardson trade, Colts GM Ryan Grigson replied "yes."

Grigson obviously wouldn't say "no," but it's notable that he wasn't exactly effusive in his praise, offering up a one-word answer. Coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory, Richardson is now recovering from shoulder surgery. The bulky back admitted earlier this month that he still doesn't have a natural feel for the Colts' system. Once he gets healthy, T-Rich needs to put on a show in the Colts' offseason program. Despite all his problems, Richardson is still the heavy favorite to enter 2014 as Indy's No. 1 back.

Source: Chris Wesseling on Twitter
 
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.

If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)
The problem is that he was there for longer than what an entire NFL offseason would be. So if the problem is just that he couldn't figure out a new system in that amount of time, what happens going forward? Every time the Colts get a new offensive coordinator or change their offensive system we have to endure a full season of Trent being awful before he finally gets it the year after? Most RBs go through 3-5 different coordinators during their career. If Trent is bad every time the system changes that will make up almost half of his career all on its own.

 
I think the 'he needs an off season argument' is a rationalization. I wonder what the excuse will be for the 2014 season???

 
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.

If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)
:grad: :thanks:

That's why you are a Champion FF player and all these scrubs don't mention jacksit in their sigs. :thumbup:

 
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.

If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)
:grad: :thanks:

That's why you are a Champion FF player and all these scrubs don't mention jacksit in their sigs. :thumbup:
:lmao:

 
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.

If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)
:grad: :thanks:

That's why you are a Champion FF player and all these scrubs don't mention jacksit in their sigs. :thumbup:
:lmao:
Been in the same 20 team dynasty league since I have been 11 years old, 23 now. Keeping 25 players a year. 5 Championships take the league...

I am currently in 1st place in that league with 3 championships. :shark:

 
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Stats for carries with 4 or fewer yards to go:

Trent - 33 carries for 63 yards - 1.9 ypc. 19 first downs, 3 touchdowns

Brown - 22 carries for 73 yards - 3.3 ypc. 9 first downs, 4 touchdowns

 
Stats for carries with 4 or fewer yards to go:

Trent - 33 carries for 63 yards - 1.9 ypc. 19 first downs, 3 touchdowns

Brown - 22 carries for 73 yards - 3.3 ypc. 9 first downs, 4 touchdowns
Yeah, but they don't count unless the other team calls a timeout after the run.
 
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.

If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)
:grad: :thanks:

That's why you are a Champion FF player and all these scrubs don't mention jacksit in their sigs. :thumbup:
:lmao:
That sig has to be fishing. That might possibly be the worst roster I have ever seen, regardless of 20 teams. TRich and McFadden as the best RBs?

BWill, did you win a single game this year? Outside of Cam and Allen and a couple games at the end of the year from Patterson, you had to be getting donuts from half your roster. Also, it will be a long wait for championship #4 with that team.

 
Stats for carries with 4 or fewer yards to go:

Trent - 33 carries for 63 yards - 1.9 ypc. 19 first downs, 3 touchdowns

Brown - 22 carries for 73 yards - 3.3 ypc. 9 first downs, 4 touchdowns
Yeah, but they don't count unless the other team calls a timeout after the run.
That is true, the timeout after the run is the single biggest indicator of FF success in the next season. Did you know that before ADP got hurt in 2011, he had 5 carries for 52 yards and 1 TD in the last 3 games when the other team had to burn a timeout with less than 2:31 on the clock? Any fool would have know he was destined for his 2012 if they had just looked at those stats.

 
stbugs said:
Not even worried about Trent. Dude is going to bounce back. It sickens me how many people are stuck on his mid-season traded stats.

If he stayed with the Browns, no doubt he is a 1000 yard runner this year.

He will "get" the system after this offseason, (if he clicks this year, his offseason in 2015 and the season is going to be monstrous)
:grad: :thanks:

That's why you are a Champion FF player and all these scrubs don't mention jacksit in their sigs. :thumbup:
:lmao:
That sig has to be fishing. That might possibly be the worst roster I have ever seen, regardless of 20 teams. TRich and McFadden as the best RBs?

BWill, did you win a single game this year? Outside of Cam and Allen and a couple games at the end of the year from Patterson, you had to be getting donuts from half your roster. Also, it will be a long wait for championship #4 with that team.
Yes, My team sucked this year! But also Trent got traded mid season. Cam PULLED THROUGH top 3 the second half of the season, JUST LIKE LAST YEAR! Patterson was 3rd overall since starting in my league KR/PR points & Allen Top 10-15 WR! Pitta is a top 3-10 TE easily this year on different weeks... A HUGE part of the Ravens offense, Can NOT wait!!! DMC is great when he plays... and Murray could start in Oakland this year, so dont hate at all.

 
Richardson looks like the classic RB who can't create anything more than what is blocked for him. If you need one yard, he'll get you two. If you need three yards, he'll get you two.

 
I wonder if his career will be reminiscent of Thomas Jones. He was another "bust" who just didn't click for a long time, then got it rolling in his late 20s.

 
I wonder if his career will be reminiscent of Thomas Jones. He was another "bust" who just didn't click for a long time, then got it rolling in his late 20s.
Might be, the only cautionary tale there is that in his first two seasons TJ had 3.3 and 3.4 ypc. At first glance, it looks similar, but Pittman was the primary RB those two years and had 3.9 and 3.5. So, maybe the Arizona OL was just bad. TRich had 2.9 this year, while the rest of the RBs were at 5.0. That tells me that the issue was more TRich than the Colts OL.

TJ jumped when he finally moved on to the Bears, who in the past have been a better run team than Arizona, so that may have helped as much as TJ. TRich is most likely with the Colts for a bit, so it is really up to him now.

 
Not good news for Trent owners.

When asked about his running back situation, Colts GM Ryan Grigson said "the best players play."
Grigson wasn't singling out Trent Richardson, he was simply talking up a Seahawks-esque mantra for his entire team. Still, if Vick Ballard (torn ACL) can make it back in time for training camp he'll have a shot to earn carries -- especially if free agent Donald Brown walks. "Iron sharp as iron. We're going to try to have the most competition at each position group and whoever wins that spot is going to be the starter," he said. Ballard has a career 3.91 YPC average while T-Rich was at 2.91 in 14 games with the Colts last season.
I have said it before, I'll say it again look out for Ballard in a 1b role this year. Taking place of Browns role sine won't be coming back. Trent is done we all seen it, call it scheme or being traded, that doesn't at cement blocks to your feet. Whoever RB2 is in Indy, he could be a RB1 before you know it, Ballard, Brown or a Rookie.

 
I wonder if his career will be reminiscent of Thomas Jones. He was another "bust" who just didn't click for a long time, then got it rolling in his late 20s.
Might be, the only cautionary tale there is that in his first two seasons TJ had 3.3 and 3.4 ypc. At first glance, it looks similar, but Pittman was the primary RB those two years and had 3.9 and 3.5. So, maybe the Arizona OL was just bad. TRich had 2.9 this year, while the rest of the RBs were at 5.0. That tells me that the issue was more TRich than the Colts OL.TJ jumped when he finally moved on to the Bears, who in the past have been a better run team than Arizona, so that may have helped as much as TJ. TRich is most likely with the Colts for a bit, so it is really up to him now.
Thomas jones had undiagnosed pleurisy that derailed his career for years. The doctors thought he had rib injuries, and mistreated him based on that assumption. Once they figured it out, he lived up to his potential. If there's a parallel here, its not that trent is a late bloomer like jones, but that trent might need a fully healthy season to showcase his talent. Who knows, maybe he has pleurisy, too. Or maybe he just needs the right system and a full offseason to figure it out. Or maybe he really is a huge bust. Its hard to say.

 

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