What staring RB's will lose their jobs to backups/rookies this yea (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Lamar Miller

Tre Mason

Donald Brown

Denard Robinson/Toby Gerhart

Devante Freeman

Just off the top of my head

the miller hate is baffling. i like ajayi but miller is no joke.

gurley will surpass mason, draft stock says so.

gordon wakes up out of bed and takes the job from brown.

everything points to yeldon starting from the jump.

this one is tricky, how many are sure coleman is even better than freeman? freeman was just the guy everyone was stoked about until they take a rb in the third round? now he is useless? rookie fever is something to exploit when you can.

My sentiments exactly! Also, go listen to Bloom and Waldman discuss Coleman's fit in the Falcon offense. Seems like a pretty mystifying draft selection.As much as I love Gurley, I'm thinking Mason is a great pick in redraft leagues. Gurley has to overcome the ACL tear, which happened late in the season, and has to pick up the NFL game. At worst, I see Mason having solid value the first half of the season. Again, Im not talking dynasty.

As for Miller, he definitely wore down at the end of games and the season for that matter, but was pretty consistent and is playing for a payday. He really would be an excellent fit for the 2016 Cowboys. It probably won't happen, but it's in the back of mind when drafting in dynasty leagues

No he didnt, better check that again. he got better as the season went on. thats the type of comments that is driving the hate for miller for some reason. 5.1 ypc is not average, it is actually elite. How many players over 200 carries average 5+ yard per carry in the NFL this past year? The answer is 4. Charles, Hill, Miller and Forsett.

As a matter of fact he had the same ypc as Hill, and comparable stats overall and Hill be considered a Top 10 dyno back and Miller being an after thought. I would also say Bernard is more of a threat than Ajayi at this point.

Hill 222/1124/9

Miller 216/1099/8

Whats the difference? Say it together with me, HYPE!

Well, one difference is level of usage over the 2nd half of the season. Let's not forget that Hill wasn't starting at the beginning of the season.Miller's split:

1st 8 games: 104 carries, 518 yds

2nd 8 games: 112 carries, 581 yds

Hill's split:

1st 8 games: 74 carries, 349 yds

2nd 8 games: 148 carries, 775 yds

That is a significant difference in the second half of the season. Will that carry forward in 2015?

By the way, Miller didn't have 20 carries in a single game. Not even once.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

 

[VarsityBlues123]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

If people think bad of a 24 yo RB who carried it 200+ times and average 5.1 ypc, then this is not he hobby for them it would seem, right?

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

I agree with you totally on this except when the reason the guy fell was for character concerns. To me, if the talent is still there and character dropped him in the draft, he is a good buy low player. Jeremy Hill was one last year. Sometimes you need to be an ##### to be effective while taking hits from big men.

 

[cstu]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

If people think bad of a 24 yo RB who carried it 200+ times and average 5.1 ypc, then this is not he hobby for them it would seem, right?

Miller is RB is a free agent after the season. Given how easy it is for teams to let RB's walk these days it should not be a surprise if Miller is not a Dolphin next year. Assuming Miller will leave is reasonable - trusting the Dolphins not to draft a RB next year, not so much.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

I agree with you totally on this except when the reason the guy fell was for character concerns. To me, if the talent is still there and character dropped him in the draft, he is a good buy low player. Jeremy Hill was one last year. Sometimes you need to be an ##### to be effective while taking hits from big men.

Hill didn't exactly fall too far, though. Huge difference. I'm thinking about the owners who took the Dwyers, Lattimores, Da'Rick Rogers in the 1st of rookie drafts.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

If people think bad of a 24 yo RB who carried it 200+ times and average 5.1 ypc, then this is not he hobby for them it would seem, right?

Sounds like you already know the answer you want to hear.I have no dog in this fight. Miller isn't on my team, and Ajayi is unlikely to drop to me.

I'm uninterested in what Miller did last year. I'm highly interested in what he will do in 2015 and beyond.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

I agree with you totally on this except when the reason the guy fell was for character concerns. To me, if the talent is still there and character dropped him in the draft, he is a good buy low player. Jeremy Hill was one last year. Sometimes you need to be an ##### to be effective while taking hits from big men.

Hill didn't exactly fall too far, though. Huge difference. I'm thinking about the owners who took the Dwyers, Lattimores, Da'Rick Rogers in the 1st of rookie drafts.

I wasn't a particular fan of Dwyer's tiny hands and work ethic or Rogers talent, and I sided with scouts on them, but I get your point. Attitude for WR is more important to me. Have to be reliable and it doesn't hurt to have your QB and coaches like the guy.

 

[VarsityBlues123]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

If people think bad of a 24 yo RB who carried it 200+ times and average 5.1 ypc, then this is not he hobby for them it would seem, right?

Sounds like you already know the answer you want to hear.I have no dog in this fight. Miller isn't on my team, and Ajayi is unlikely to drop to me.

I'm uninterested in what Miller did last year. I'm highly interested in what he will do in 2015 and beyond.

You dont have to own either to discuss them. I own Ajayi and only got caught up defending Miller because the hate is over board. I like Ajayi, but the hate for Miller is too much.

 

[msudaisy26]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

If people think bad of a 24 yo RB who carried it 200+ times and average 5.1 ypc, then this is not he hobby for them it would seem, right?

Sounds like you already know the answer you want to hear.I have no dog in this fight. Miller isn't on my team, and Ajayi is unlikely to drop to me.

I'm uninterested in what Miller did last year. I'm highly interested in what he will do in 2015 and beyond.

This is true, I own Miller in one of my leagues and I am trying to move him for a rebuild. I probably couldn't trade him straight up for Ajayi right now.

 

[ICON211]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

If people think bad of a 24 yo RB who carried it 200+ times and average 5.1 ypc, then this is not he hobby for them it would seem, right?

Sounds like you already know the answer you want to hear.I have no dog in this fight. Miller isn't on my team, and Ajayi is unlikely to drop to me.

I'm uninterested in what Miller did last year. I'm highly interested in what he will do in 2015 and beyond.

You dont have to own either to discuss them. I own Ajayi and only got caught up defending Miller because the hate is over board. I like Ajayi, but the hate for Miller is too much.

It's not hate for Miller. I think Miller is very talented. It's hate for the way his coaching staff views him and the tendencies they have already showed regarding him.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

If people think bad of a 24 yo RB who carried it 200+ times and average 5.1 ypc, then this is not he hobby for them it would seem, right?

Sounds like you already know the answer you want to hear.I have no dog in this fight. Miller isn't on my team, and Ajayi is unlikely to drop to me.

I'm uninterested in what Miller did last year. I'm highly interested in what he will do in 2015 and beyond.

You dont have to own either to discuss them. I own Ajayi and only got caught up defending Miller because the hate is over board. I like Ajayi, but the hate for Miller is too much.

I never said I had to own either one to discuss them. I'm just making it clear where my bias is or isn't from an ownership perspective.The Miller "hate" isn't really hate. It is people being skeptical of his talent. And his likelihood of staying in Miami. And his odds of getting more carries this year than the roughly 14 per game he got last year. Those are reasonable concerns.

What seems odd to me is people suggesting that Ajayi's ascension to the starting role is imminent. We have literally no fact base, no new knowledge or evidence to suggest that a 5th round pick with a seemingly serious knee issue (which may or may not manifest itself anytime soon) will suddenly be vaulted into the starting role.

So I can understand your frustration with the posturing. But IMO, pretending that the concerns about Miller are unfounded.....doesn't help foster an honest debate.

 

[cstu]

Sankey in Tenn

Agreed. Cobb was another RB I was hoping SD was targeting in the draft and think could end the year as the starter in TEN.

As a Sankey owner I held my nose and drafted Cobb at the end of the 2nd. Pretty cheap backup plan if Sankey loses the job.

 

[Hawkeye21]

I myself really like Johnson in Arizona. I had high hopes for Ellington last year and still think he's good but Johnson could steal the leading role from him soon.

 

[VarsityBlues123]

This is what confuses me with what some of the masses/people think.

Ellington under performed and the Cards draft a RB in the 3rd round and people still like Ellington and are talking less about Johnson then they are Ajayi.

Miller has a great season and the Dolphins draft a RB in the 5th round and Miller is going to lose his job.

I don't get it either. Ajayi has gone ahead of Johnson in some of my leagues and it makes no sense. Not only does Ajayi have a more established back in front of him, he was drafted two rounds later and is a knee injury waiting to happen.

Definitely a fair point. But it also speaks to a) how little people think of Miller, b) that people seem to be saying that Ajayi is more talented than Johnson, and only dropped due to injury worries that might not matter for a few years.I can see both sides of this issue.

If people think bad of a 24 yo RB who carried it 200+ times and average 5.1 ypc, then this is not he hobby for them it would seem, right?

Sounds like you already know the answer you want to hear.I have no dog in this fight. Miller isn't on my team, and Ajayi is unlikely to drop to me.

I'm uninterested in what Miller did last year. I'm highly interested in what he will do in 2015 and beyond.

You dont have to own either to discuss them. I own Ajayi and only got caught up defending Miller because the hate is over board. I like Ajayi, but the hate for Miller is too much.

I never said I had to own either one to discuss them. I'm just making it clear where my bias is or isn't from an ownership perspective.The Miller "hate" isn't really hate. It is people being skeptical of his talent. And his likelihood of staying in Miami. And his odds of getting more carries this year than the roughly 14 per game he got last year. Those are reasonable concerns.

What seems odd to me is people suggesting that Ajayi's ascension to the starting role is imminent. We have literally no fact base, no new knowledge or evidence to suggest that a 5th round pick with a seemingly serious knee issue (which may or may not manifest itself anytime soon) will suddenly be vaulted into the starting role.

So I can understand your frustration with the posturing. But IMO, pretending that the concerns about Miller are unfounded.....doesn't help foster an honest debate.

I understand, but I'm not trying to foster a debate. I'm trying to justify to myself why people who are well versed in football would look at a 24 yo RB who has gotten better each year and even had a 1000 yard season and a 5.1 average as a threat to lose the job outright because they drafted a RB int he 5th round.

I am hearing why people dont like him, but the reasons they state are not reasonable. Just saying "I dont like Miller" is not a reason. Nothing he has done suggests him losing the job this year.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Does anyone know if the Dolphins themselves are all that high on Miller? I haven't heard any high praise as of yet but I also don't follow the Fins all that much.

 

[cstu]

I understand, but I'm not trying to foster a debate. I'm trying to justify to myself why people who are well versed in football would look at a 24 yo RB who has gotten better each year and even had a 1000 yard season and a 5.1 average as a threat to lose the job outright because they drafted a RB int he 5th round.

I am hearing why people dont like him, but the reasons they state are not reasonable. Just saying "I dont like Miller" is not a reason. Nothing he has done suggests him losing the job this year.

The debate doesn't need to be about Miller, but rather whether they will re-sign him. Even if he's good they may let him walk in favor of a cheaper option.

 

[cstu]

I myself really like Johnson in Arizona. I had high hopes for Ellington last year and still think he's good but Johnson could steal the leading role from him soon.

After Gurley/Gordon/Yeldon I think his situation is as good any as rookie RB:

Abdullah - Bell

Coleman - Freeman

Duke Johnson - Crowell

Matt Jones - Morris

Buck Allen - Forsett

Cobb - Sankey

Ajayi - Miller

 

[Hawkeye21]

I myself really like Johnson in Arizona. I had high hopes for Ellington last year and still think he's good but Johnson could steal the leading role from him soon.

After Gurley/Gordon/Yeldon I think his situation is as good any as rookie RB:

Abdullah - Bell

Coleman - Freeman

Duke Johnson - Crowell

Matt Jones - Morris

Buck Allen - Forsett

Cobb - Sankey

Ajayi - Miller

One or two of these backs has to have an outstanding year.

 

[Stealthycat]

which rookie RB unseated a started last year?

that's about as likely as happens this year though Gurley/Gordon/Yeldon have inside tracks

every other RB is sitting behind starters IMO with only an injury or exceptional poor play getting them starting gigs

 

[Sabertooth]

Forsett. You don't see too many journey men running backs break out at his age.

Who's gonna supplant him though? They made no real effort in the draft or in free agency. I'd say his job is safe for 2015 at least.

new system though

 

[Hawkeye21]

The hard thing is determining who are actually staring RBs. So many teams have committees now that it's hard to determine who the top back is. The position has been so spread thin that there are really only a few main backs in the league. It use to be the best position in fantasy football but now it's the most frustrating.

 

[cstu]

I myself really like Johnson in Arizona. I had high hopes for Ellington last year and still think he's good but Johnson could steal the leading role from him soon.

After Gurley/Gordon/Yeldon I think his situation is as good any as rookie RB:

Abdullah - Bell

Coleman - Freeman

Duke Johnson - Crowell

Matt Jones - Morris

Buck Allen - Forsett

Cobb - Sankey

Ajayi - Miller

One or two of these backs has to have an outstanding year.

My favorites to do it are Johnson (Ellington is an ideal 3rd down back) and Coleman (Freeman is too slow for his size to be a starter).

Other than that I think it's going to take injuries.

 

[thriftyrocker]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

I agree with you totally on this except when the reason the guy fell was for character concerns. To me, if the talent is still there and character dropped him in the draft, he is a good buy low player. Jeremy Hill was one last year. Sometimes you need to be an ##### to be effective while taking hits from big men.

Hill didn't exactly fall too far, though. Huge difference. I'm thinking about the owners who took the Dwyers, Lattimores, Da'Rick Rogers in the 1st of rookie drafts.

Keenan Allen, Isaiah Crowell, Mike Williams, Legarrette Blount, Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, DeSean Jackson, Russell Wilson.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

he fell to the mid 5th round. Don't understand why people are drafting him early/mid 2nd round of rookie drafts, so many better options.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I don't get the hate for Miller. Anyone know his current ADP in redraft leagues? I smell a bargin.

 

[ghostguy123]

Be a much shorter list if you asked who wouldn't lose their job

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

I agree with you totally on this except when the reason the guy fell was for character concerns. To me, if the talent is still there and character dropped him in the draft, he is a good buy low player. Jeremy Hill was one last year. Sometimes you need to be an ##### to be effective while taking hits from big men.

Hill didn't exactly fall too far, though. Huge difference. I'm thinking about the owners who took the Dwyers, Lattimores, Da'Rick Rogers in the 1st of rookie drafts.

Keenan Allen, Isaiah Crowell, Mike Williams, Legarrette Blount, Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, DeSean Jackson, Russell Wilson.

Not sure what this list is getting at -- some of these guys have outperformed their draft slot. Some fell for various reasons. Finding exceptions is great and all, but the point still stands -- the league usually, not always, gets it right. It takes all 32 of the teams passing on a player multiple times to create a situation where a player falls way down the board-- that implied consensus is pretty powerful information.

 

[Sabertooth]

Jeremy Hill fell due to character issues? Huh, and here I thought he was the second running back off the board, one pick behind Sankey and ahead of Hyde. Weird. Oh that's right, Rookie_whisperer saw him coming out and putting up 1000 yards+. He even posted about it last year. If I knew how to use the search function I'd find where he predicted it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I understand, but I'm not trying to foster a debate. I'm trying to justify to myself why people who are well versed in football would look at a 24 yo RB who has gotten better each year and even had a 1000 yard season and a 5.1 average as a threat to lose the job outright because they drafted a RB int he 5th round.

Personally I drafted Ajayi, but don't think he pushes Miller aside this season. Where I see opportunity is that the staff hasn't shown faith in Miller as a workhorse back and seem to prefer him in more of a "split" backfield. Miller has very good size, but doesn't really run with any power, and isn't that effective in the passing game. So Ajayi can be used (potentially) in the red-zone and on passing games to spell Miller, which is where fantasy points are accumulated. If Miller leaves after the season, Ajayi owners need to hope he shows enough that Miami doesn't feel the need to spend and early pick at RB or bring in a veteran that will outplay Ajayi.

Your problem is that you are spending time in the Ajayi thread where (for the most part) it will be owners who just drafted him and are excited about his prospects, so sure there will be some wishful thinking in there.

Miller is a good and effective running back and has the advantage of being familiar with the system - there's no reason to think he shouldn't see the bulk of the carries, but Ajayi (based on perceived talent) has a chance to carve out a nice role as well.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Jeremy Hill fell due to character issues? Huh, and here I thought he was the second running back off the board, one pick behind Sankey and ahead of Hyde. Weird. Oh that's right, Rookie_whisperer saw him coming out and putting up 1000 yards+. He even posted about it last year. If I knew how to use the search function I'd find where he predicted it.

I think Hill fell in rookie drafts due to Gio Bernard having a really nice rookie year

 

[Dr. Octopus]

which rookie RB unseated a started last year?

Jeremy Hill (Bernard), Tre Mason (Stacy), Andre Williams (Jennings, due to injury though), Isaiah Crowell/Terrence west (Tate)

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I agree that anyone expecting Ajayi to come in and take over completely is likely making a mistake. That said, Miller vs Ajayi isn't really the most relevant comparison to make here -- Ajayi vs Daniel Thomas is. After Moreno went down, Miller had a 5:1 advantage over Thomas in carries -- if Ajayi is more effective than Thomas (and that's not a stretch at all) that ratio is going to change. It seems pretty reasonable to project Miller's carries to go down. The story for FF will likely be told by the red zone and passing down work, and neither of those have been big strengths for Miller. Finally, this coaching staff has very clearly not seen Miller as their featured RB of choice to this point; he was a non-factor as a rookie, in RBBC with Thomas two years ago, and needed a Moreno injury to get the workload he ended up with last year. Miller's value is low for good reason IMO -- he's good enough to have a role in Miami or anywhere else, but comes with weaknesses that make it unlikely that he is more than a RBBC guy except by default.

 

[mikmak8902]

Why so down on Lamar Miller? What exactly does the guy have to do? He was basically top 5 for the last quarter of the season.

I'm reading the tea leaves. I don't believe Miami sees him as their future back.

Ajayi was a 5th round pick. I think they are looking at him as depth with Moreno gone and the other backs on the roster being a large order of suck. I know I said this in another thread but it bears repeating. Miller put up over 5ypc last year behind a decimated line and a QB that can't stretch the field. To alvarndc's point ... what in the world does this guy need to do???

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Why so down on Lamar Miller? What exactly does the guy have to do? He was basically top 5 for the last quarter of the season.

I'm reading the tea leaves. I don't believe Miami sees him as their future back.

Ajayi was a 5th round pick. I think they are looking at him as depth with Moreno gone and the other backs on the roster being a large order of suck. I know I said this in another thread but it bears repeating. Miller put up over 5ypc last year behind a decimated line and a QB that can't stretch the field. To alvarndc's point ... what in the world does this guy need to do???

Why didn't he average more than 14 carries per game last year then?

 

[mikmak8902]

Why so down on Lamar Miller? What exactly does the guy have to do? He was basically top 5 for the last quarter of the season.

I'm reading the tea leaves. I don't believe Miami sees him as their future back.

Ajayi was a 5th round pick. I think they are looking at him as depth with Moreno gone and the other backs on the roster being a large order of suck. I know I said this in another thread but it bears repeating. Miller put up over 5ypc last year behind a decimated line and a QB that can't stretch the field. To alvarndc's point ... what in the world does this guy need to do???

Why didn't he average more than 14 carries per game last year then?

Possibly because their QB can't stretch the field and they checked into more passing plays because defenses were loading the box?

Rushing Attempts per game - 24.9 - 22nd in the NFL

Passing Attempts per game - 37.2 - 12th in the NFL

Yds per Pass Completion - 9.5 - 30th in the NFL

In the last 3 games of the season, as Tannehill's Yds per Pass Completion inched up to a more league avg amount (10.3), Miller's carries increased to 18 per game.

 

[VarsityBlues123]

which rookie RB unseated a started last year?

Jeremy Hill (Bernard), Tre Mason (Stacy), Andre Williams (Jennings, due to injury though), Isaiah Crowell/Terrence west (Tate)

Not a single one started the season as the starter though. Not that that is the discussion but goes to show rookies even when we know they will start eventually very rarely get the nod if someone is ahead of them coming into the season. Not discussing past players like Lacy and Gordon or Yeldon this year.They had/have no one ahead of them,

 

[Marauder]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

I agree with you totally on this except when the reason the guy fell was for character concerns. To me, if the talent is still there and character dropped him in the draft, he is a good buy low player. Jeremy Hill was one last year. Sometimes you need to be an ##### to be effective while taking hits from big men.

Hill didn't exactly fall too far, though. Huge difference. I'm thinking about the owners who took the Dwyers, Lattimores, Da'Rick Rogers in the 1st of rookie drafts.

Keenan Allen, Isaiah Crowell, Mike Williams, Legarrette Blount, Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, DeSean Jackson, Russell Wilson.

Not sure what this list is getting at -- some of these guys have outperformed their draft slot. Some fell for various reasons. Finding exceptions is great and all, but the point still stands -- the league usually, not always, gets it right. It takes all 32 of the teams passing on a player multiple times to create a situation where a player falls way down the board-- that implied consensus is pretty powerful information.

This is true but you also have to realize that NFL teams have a different goal in mind when they are drafting than Fantasy Football (redraft) players do. NFL Teams have to look longer term than we do. You can find the exceptions for Fantasy Football purposes many times by recognizing this. Crowell was a good example last year. Everybody, including all 32 teams, knew that talent-wise he was a mid round (or higher) player but he went undrafted because of the character concerns. In Ajayi's case, it seems everybody agrees that he dropped because of the concern that his injury will probably shorten his career, a big concern for NFL teams but as redraft FF players we don't care how long his career is, all we care about is this year.

 

[VarsityBlues123]

Why so down on Lamar Miller? What exactly does the guy have to do? He was basically top 5 for the last quarter of the season.

I'm reading the tea leaves. I don't believe Miami sees him as their future back.

Ajayi was a 5th round pick. I think they are looking at him as depth with Moreno gone and the other backs on the roster being a large order of suck. I know I said this in another thread but it bears repeating. Miller put up over 5ypc last year behind a decimated line and a QB that can't stretch the field. To alvarndc's point ... what in the world does this guy need to do???

Rush for 5.2 ypc? There really is no reason for the hate. People are just spitting the offseason narrative.

What tea leaves are people reading that says he wont be even better this year?

 

[thriftyrocker]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

I agree with you totally on this except when the reason the guy fell was for character concerns. To me, if the talent is still there and character dropped him in the draft, he is a good buy low player. Jeremy Hill was one last year. Sometimes you need to be an ##### to be effective while taking hits from big men.

Hill didn't exactly fall too far, though. Huge difference. I'm thinking about the owners who took the Dwyers, Lattimores, Da'Rick Rogers in the 1st of rookie drafts.

Keenan Allen, Isaiah Crowell, Mike Williams, Legarrette Blount, Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, DeSean Jackson, Russell Wilson.

Not sure what this list is getting at -- some of these guys have outperformed their draft slot. Some fell for various reasons. Finding exceptions is great and all, but the point still stands -- the league usually, not always, gets it right. It takes all 32 of the teams passing on a player multiple times to create a situation where a player falls way down the board-- that implied consensus is pretty powerful information.

All of them fell for various reasons. The fact that Lamar Miller is on that list adds some irony. Each team passed on him 3 times because oh yeah his shoulder it won't hold up to the NFL. So now it is compelling that the guy who might replace him was passed on 4 times? The NFL makes a lot of dumb decisions. The only thing that is debatable is whether we are any better at making them or deciphering good from bad. But the NFL does not usually get it right. Assuming usually indicates a significantly high threshold much greater than 51%.

 

[cstu]

Why so down on Lamar Miller? What exactly does the guy have to do? He was basically top 5 for the last quarter of the season.

I'm reading the tea leaves. I don't believe Miami sees him as their future back.

Ajayi was a 5th round pick. I think they are looking at him as depth with Moreno gone and the other backs on the roster being a large order of suck. I know I said this in another thread but it bears repeating. Miller put up over 5ypc last year behind a decimated line and a QB that can't stretch the field. To alvarndc's point ... what in the world does this guy need to do???

Rush for 5.2 ypc? There really is no reason for the hate. People are just spitting the offseason narrative.

What tea leaves are people reading that says he wont be even better this year?

Is it so hard to imagine that the Dolphins won't re-sign him and draft another RB next year to be their starter?

 

[tone1oc]

I understand, but I'm not trying to foster a debate. I'm trying to justify to myself why people who are well versed in football would look at a 24 yo RB who has gotten better each year and even had a 1000 yard season and a 5.1 average as a threat to lose the job outright because they drafted a RB int he 5th round.

I am hearing why people dont like him, but the reasons they state are not reasonable. Just saying "I dont like Miller" is not a reason. Nothing he has done suggests him losing the job this year.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/727434-what-staring-rbs-will-lose-their-jobs-to-backupsrookies-this-yea/#entry18051567

My response as to why I think he could lose his job this year wasn't a simple "I dont like Miller" and was largely ignored.

 

[VarsityBlues123]

Why so down on Lamar Miller? What exactly does the guy have to do? He was basically top 5 for the last quarter of the season.

I'm reading the tea leaves. I don't believe Miami sees him as their future back.

Ajayi was a 5th round pick. I think they are looking at him as depth with Moreno gone and the other backs on the roster being a large order of suck. I know I said this in another thread but it bears repeating. Miller put up over 5ypc last year behind a decimated line and a QB that can't stretch the field. To alvarndc's point ... what in the world does this guy need to do???

Rush for 5.2 ypc? There really is no reason for the hate. People are just spitting the offseason narrative.

What tea leaves are people reading that says he wont be even better this year?

Is it so hard to imagine that the Dolphins won't re-sign him and draft another RB next year to be their starter?

That is different and has nothing to do with the title of the thread that talks about THIS YEAR!

 

[Alex P Keaton]

It's usually a mistake to value a player in FF as a ____ round talent that fell due to (insert reason here) as opposed to based on the round the guy was actually drafted in. The league gets this stuff right far more often than they get it wrong.

I agree with you totally on this except when the reason the guy fell was for character concerns. To me, if the talent is still there and character dropped him in the draft, he is a good buy low player. Jeremy Hill was one last year. Sometimes you need to be an ##### to be effective while taking hits from big men.

Hill didn't exactly fall too far, though. Huge difference. I'm thinking about the owners who took the Dwyers, Lattimores, Da'Rick Rogers in the 1st of rookie drafts.

Keenan Allen, Isaiah Crowell, Mike Williams, Legarrette Blount, Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, DeSean Jackson, Russell Wilson.

Not sure what this list is getting at -- some of these guys have outperformed their draft slot. Some fell for various reasons. Finding exceptions is great and all, but the point still stands -- the league usually, not always, gets it right. It takes all 32 of the teams passing on a player multiple times to create a situation where a player falls way down the board-- that implied consensus is pretty powerful information.

All of them fell for various reasons. The fact that Lamar Miller is on that list adds some irony. Each team passed on him 3 times because oh yeah his shoulder it won't hold up to the NFL. So now it is compelling that the guy who might replace him was passed on 4 times? The NFL makes a lot of dumb decisions. The only thing that is debatable is whether we are any better at making them or deciphering good from bad. But the NFL does not usually get it right. Assuming usually indicates a significantly high threshold much greater than 51%.

Spot on. Why is Ajayi so different from Lamar Miller when he was drafted?Note: I still see Miller as the starter for all of 2015

 

[alvarndc]

Why is Ajayi different from Miller?

Really?

Is a shoulder nearly as concerning as a potentially premature arthritic knee for a running back? This is the same sort of problem Bo Jackson had with his hip.

Now sure, there is a spectrum of severity with any injury. But he has been studied with advanced imaging and evaluated by 32 medical staffs who employ some of the best sports orthopods money can buy.

I am not betting against that type of inside information.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Not sure why the focus on any of these situations is so much on who the starter is when they're all very likely to be some form of RBBC. The percentages of short yardage carries and passing down snaps are what's important in FF, not who is on the field for the 1st offensive snap.

 

[lod01]

Why so down on Lamar Miller? What exactly does the guy have to do? He was basically top 5 for the last quarter of the season.

I'm reading the tea leaves. I don't believe Miami sees him as their future back.

Hmmm. Ok. Could just as easily make the case that Miami figured a 5th round pick was reasonable to use as insurance, esp on a back like Ajayi. Hard to understand why Ajayi dropped so much, but I won't second guess 32 highly paid medical staffs with access to MRI images.

To me, Miller and L. Murray are two of the most exciting possible breakout backs this year. Could see either one of them blowing up.

Twitter is on fire with quotes form coaches promoting Ajayi as a complete, three down back. Quotes, by the way, that you NEVER found about the guys they currently have rostered. The guy is not the future in Miami. The sooner you get on board with that, the better off your team will be. Nothing against Miller. It just shouldn't take a guy 4 years to finally show promise. I think it's too late and I think you know it's too late. A fresh start in Dallas may be what the doctor ordered but Miami ain't it.

at the Lamar Miller losing the starting gig BS. Talk about not having a clue. Only Justin Forsett had a better ypc than Miller.

4 years? (more ) yet he's only been in the league 3 years. Ka-lueless. He's already shown enough that they wised up and sent that waste of $ Moreno packing.

 

[cr8f]

So this has become the Miami RB thread.