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Big Ten Basketball 2022/2023 - Return to Power (1 Viewer)

James Daulton said:
Me neither what happened?  Was on campus yesterday visiting with daughter.  I think I have her convinced to attend next year.  Looking forward to proudly displaying my TerpDad bumper sticker. 
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Seems Melo hit a 3 with under a second left to break a tie score.

Where else is your daughter looking? 

 
Uruk-Hai said:
I wasn't able to see the game. Recap?
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Melo missed a shot that would have put them up by 2... Sparty had the ball with under 10 seconds left with the score tied. Sparty turned it over on a mishandled pass under the basket. Terps inbounded the ball with about 6 seconds, Melo took the ball down court, pulled up & sank a deep three to put ther terps up with 1.1 seconds left. Sparty's last shot hit the rim but didnt go in. Terps win. 

 
Melo has always been our kriponite. Good game Terps. We had too many chances to win and didn't capitalize. Young team plays young mentally. 

 
Dodd almost blew the game down the stretch.  Three straight possessions, hedged on a screen, only to leave Ward wide open underneath the basket.  Same thing happened on MSU's last play, but Ward mishandled the pass.  In fairness, had he caught it, he might not have beaten the shot clock.

Cowan played well.  Jackson was good.  Huerter did not shoot well.  Gill and Bender both played well.  Nickens, Wiley, and Brantley didn't get much burn.

Melo's post-game comments seemed to indicate that he's already decided to go pro.

 
Last day of the regular season!!!

Hawkeyes kick things off at home in a must-win game for their slim tourney chances, although Illinois losing to Rutgers yesterday helped.  Penn St. tries to keep its NIT hopes alive, as they need this game plus two wins in the B1G tourney to be eligible.

Next, we get back-to-back critical seeding games.  Purdue needs to keep rolling if they want a 3 seed in the big (not B1G) tourney, while Northwestern is already in, IMO, but has a huge opportunity to push its seed higher, as well as a chance at the B1G double-bye.

Minnesota/Wisconsin looks like a fun one.  Winner gets the 2 seed in the B1G by virtue of holding the tiebreaker over Maryland.  Loser finishes in 4th place, either by themselves or tied with Northwestern.  By my calculations, Minnesota has already clinched a double-bye in the B1G tourney, as they beat Northwestern head-to-head.  Wisconsin misses out on the double-bye if they lose today and Northwestern wins, as Northwestern would win the tiebreaker.  Oh, it's also Senior Day for four Wisconsin starters.

In the nightcap, Michigan tries to cement its NCAA bid on the road against a Nebraska team looking to avoid the Wednesday game in the B1G tourney.

 
I think Purdue might have to win the B1GT to get a 3, don't you? Especially if - for example - a non-UNC/Louisville ACC team like Duke or UVA or FSU wins that tourney, and Baylor or WVU wins the Big 12.

Anyway, I know the national consensus is that the B1G is having a crappy year but it's been a fun & unpredictable (& frustrating at times) conference season. I think Purdue has the stuff for a FF run. Wisconsin is a complete mystery to me and, I think, still really dangerous. Maryland is not as good as their record, and they haven't really beaten anyone considered as good as they are, but they have a weapon most teams don't - an upperclassman G who's gotten POY consideration for a couple of years. No one outside of Middle Tenn St will want to draw Michigan State, if they make it. And Minnesota is on one hell of a roll.

 
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I think a road win against Northwestern, plus a loss in the tourney final, might get Purdue a 3 seed, if other things break right.  Running the table through the tourney should definitely do it.  Minnesota running the table should get them a 4.

 
Who is the biggest favorite in the P5 conferences to win their tourney? 

ACC is absolutely loaded with probably 5 teams able to legitimately make a FF run. As good as UNC is, it can't be them.

Big 12 has an obvious-on-the-surface Kansas, but there are 2 other Top 10-ish programs there

The PAC12 has 3 teams in the AP top 7

B1G has Purdue and a few wildcards

SEC has Kentucky - who I don't trust for a minute - then FLA and SC

Honestly, I'd say Purdue has to be at least as likely as any of the other frontrunners in the P5 groups.

 
I'm going to call it right now that the B1G will surprise by overperforming their seeding in the NCAA Tournament in 2017 based on the lack of respect shown to this point. The fact that any team can win on any night is going to help them as they're battle tested. 

 
johnnyrock62000 said:
I'm going to call it right now that the B1G will surprise by overperforming their seeding in the NCAA Tournament in 2017 based on the lack of respect shown to this point. The fact that any team can win on any night is going to help them as they're battle tested. 
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Well, I think law of averages says that the B1G will out-perform their seedings since they will be lower than normal. Just like the ACC will under-perform (the more high seeds you have, the greater the chances some will lose early). That doesn't mean those seeds are undeserved, though. The Big Ten hasn't had a great year from a national perspective. I think the "respect" (or lack thereof) is deserved at this point. Single-elimination, though, and all bets are off.

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Who is the biggest favorite in the P5 conferences to win their tourney? 

ACC is absolutely loaded with probably 5 teams able to legitimately make a FF run. As good as UNC is, it can't be them.

Big 12 has an obvious-on-the-surface Kansas, but there are 2 other Top 10-ish programs there

The PAC12 has 3 teams in the AP top 7

B1G has Purdue and a few wildcards

SEC has Kentucky - who I don't trust for a minute - then FLA and SC

Honestly, I'd say Purdue has to be at least as likely as any of the other frontrunners in the P5 groups.
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Gotta be Kansas.  Say what you like about the rest of the B12 schools, but KU just keeps winning.

 
Big Ten Tournament should be interesting. Its pretty wide open. Purdue is definitely the favorite, but would it shock anyone if they lost to MI in the quarterfinals (assuming MI gets passed a streaking ILL team)?

I think WI, Purdue, Maryland, or MN could win. And I guess MSU - though I'm not real high on them. But Ward and Bridges are pretty awesome. And MI has the best offense in the conference so if they are hitting their open shots, they are very difficult.

 
assuming no miracle Nebraska comeback here is your seedings for DC....

1) Purdue

2) Wisconsin

3) Maryland

4) Minnesota

5) Michigan State

6) Northwestern

7) Iowa

8) Michigan

9) Illinois

10) Indiana

11) Ohio State

12) Nebraska

13) Penn State

14) Rutgers

-QG

 
So let's play the fun parlor game "How many B1G tourney wins does each team need to make the Big Dance?"

0: Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern

1: Michigan State.  Only because losing to Nebraska or Penn State would be problematic.  Probably is 0.  Michigan: Losing to the Illini would be less problematic but it could be a problem.

2: Nobody.

3: Iowa probably needs 3.  Beating Indiana wouldn't be enough.  Throw in a Wisconsin win would help, possibly enough if bubble is soft.  A third win would likely mean beating Maryland in DC - and that would be enough.  Illinois possibly could fit here with 3 wins even with the stench of the Rutgers loss since that implies beating Michigan, Purdue, and Minnesota or Michigan State which would mean they'd have 8 Top-50 wins.  Still might need all 4 wins though.

4: Indiana.  There is no way the committee gives a 15-loss team an at large bid.

5: Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers.  If my Illini don't make it I'd love for it to be a 17-18 Nebraska team just to see what the heck the committee would do with that.

-QG

 
Pretty solid there QG. Not much to add to that...though I feel like MSU needs at least 2 wins and Illinois doesn't make it without taking the title. Can't go under .500 in league play and make the dance IMO. Plus taking a 7th or 8th B1G team with 14 losses as an at-large seems like a stretch if there's likely only one team from the conference higher than a 5 seed. It's likely they only get 6 in.

 
strykerpks said:
Pretty solid there QG. Not much to add to that...though I feel like MSU needs at least 2 wins and Illinois doesn't make it without taking the title. Can't go under .500 in league play and make the dance IMO. Plus taking a 7th or 8th B1G team with 14 losses as an at-large seems like a stretch if there's likely only one team from the conference higher than a 5 seed. It's likely they only get 6 in.
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It would be a test of the theory that they look at a team's whole body of work.  In this case Illinois would be 7-2 in their last 9 and have 8 total top-50 wins.  And all of those wins would be against tournament teams.  Supposedly conference record is not a criteria.  Supposedly.

Still bummed about the loss - really would have been intriguing to see how they would rate if they beat Mich and played Purdue tough (they woulda still been #9 even if they beat RU).  

Of course if they get blown out by Michigan it might just serve to screw up the Spartans chances...

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
It would be a test of the theory that they look at a team's whole body of work.  In this case Illinois would be 7-2 in their last 9 and have 8 total top-50 wins.  And all of those wins would be against tournament teams.  Supposedly conference record is not a criteria.  Supposedly.

Still bummed about the loss - really would have been intriguing to see how they would rate if they beat Mich and played Purdue tough (they woulda still been #9 even if they beat RU).  

Of course if they get blown out by Michigan it might just serve to screw up the Spartans chances...

-QG
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Yeah I hear ya. Palm wrote something the other day (sorry can't find it to link it) but in the history of the tournament, only 7 14 loss teams have ever been taken as an at-large. That's a steep hill to climb. In a down B1G year, going under .500 in conference certainly is part of the overall resume. That extra win would have been huge.

I just don't know that they'll take 7+ teams in such a #### year for the conference. But as with anything, us armchair committee members know nothing. Best of luck :thumbup: :banned:  

 
I think Michigan is safely in at this point.  MSU could use one more.  Lunardi currently has both Iowa and Illinois as first four out, while SI.com has Iowa in first four out and Illinois in next four out.

 
Rich Conway said:
I think Michigan is safely in at this point.  MSU could use one more.  Lunardi currently has both Iowa and Illinois as first four out, while SI.com has Iowa in first four out and Illinois in next four out.
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MSU will get in based on their prior performance in the tourney, tough out of conference schedule, and fact that they were missing Bridges for a chunk of games over the holidays.  Problem with MSU in the Big 10 tourney is they are on the wrong side of the bracket.  Plus they are awful this season on the road and on neutral floors. 

 
skillz said:
MSU will get in based on their prior performance in the tourney, tough out of conference schedule, and fact that they were missing Bridges for a chunk of games over the holidays.  Problem with MSU in the Big 10 tourney is they are on the wrong side of the bracket.  Plus they are awful this season on the road and on neutral floors. 
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Exactly   :goodposting:

 
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skillz said:
MSU will get in based on their prior performance in the tourney, tough out of conference schedule, and fact that they were missing Bridges for a chunk of games over the holidays.  Problem with MSU in the Big 10 tourney is they are on the wrong side of the bracket.  Plus they are awful this season on the road and on neutral floors. 
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Like last year?  :P

I think they should get in just based on my own dumb eye-test, but the bubble seems precarious to me this season more than others. 

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Like last year?  :P

I think they should get in just based on my own dumb eye-test, but the bubble seems precarious to me this season more than others. 
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DIdn't the committee say they are going away from RPI this year and using more advanced data? Does that include Kenpom?

There, MSU is 50. Michigan 25.

 
Rich Conway said:
I think Michigan is safely in at this point.  MSU could use one more.  Lunardi currently has both Iowa and Illinois as first four out, while SI.com has Iowa in first four out and Illinois in next four out.
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NEVER bet against sparty in the month of Izzo.  At least, take the points ;)  

 
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Uruk-Hai said:
Like last year?  :P

I think they should get in just based on my own dumb eye-test, but the bubble seems precarious to me this season more than others. 
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Seven Final 4s notwithstanding, that was a horrifically bad (may be the worst in the history of the program) loss. 

 
QuizGuy66 said:
5: Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers.  If my Illini don't make it I'd love for it to be a 17-18 Nebraska team just to see what the heck the committee would do with that.

-QG
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I'd love it if Nebraska reeled off five straight, but this team has just rolled over. I'm a huge Tim Miles guy, and up until about a week ago I thought for sure he'd get another year in Nebraska.  A week later and I think he may need to beat Penn State and Michigan State to save his job. :(

 
skillz said:
I knew that was coming.  That loss still stings a year later. 
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As a Maryland fan, you're not getting a ton of sympathy from me when MSU had a ball redirected off a dude's Afro-static-electricity to that Lucious-whoever to make a game-winner against the Vasquez Terps. Maryland had an open road to the FF that year if they could have gotten past the Izzos.

 
Uruk-Hai said:
As a Maryland fan, you're not getting a ton of sympathy from me when MSU had a ball redirected off a dude's Afro-static-electricity to that Lucious-whoever to make a game-winner against the Vasquez Terps. Maryland had an open road to the FF that year if they could have gotten past the Izzos.
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Yes, that one was a rollercoaster.  Maryland started pressing after Kalin Lucas got hurt and MSU blew like a 20 point lead.  If Lucas doesn't get hurt that tournament I think MSU would have went all the way. 

 
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