adonis
Footballguy
She will STILL be unlikely to change the statistics in the race being behind in pledged delegates, states won, and popular vote. Unless she wins by about 40% or so she has very little hope of changing the numbers.
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*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter adonis
- Start date
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Me thinks you have not followed this race closely or understand much about what Hillary would need to do beyond a 10pt win in PA to believe this.
Tigran Petrosian
Footballguy
She'd have to win by 30 to even make it interesting.
commisholio
Come out with your pants down!
Gopher, are you a Hillary supporter or a Republican? I can't remember and I want to know which box to put you in. TIA
Tigran Petrosian
Footballguy
Shrillary supporter.
phthalatemagic
Footballguy
So wasn't today Obama's million dollar minute deal? How did that go? Really, I don't know. I figure he made more
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
And pissed off because Hillary and her followers were entitled to the nomination.
Trey
Footballguy
Pretending to be above the fray does not mean that one actually is. Even if a plurality of people can be fooled by rhetoric.
Tigran Petrosian
Footballguy
Blathering on about his rhetoric is, well, rhetoric.
phthalatemagic
Footballguy
Does anyone know?
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Yup. And, even then, it wouldn't be very interesting. It's just not even remotely that close that a 30 point win would do anything.These folks who think it is are in a total delusion to the facts or simply haven't looked at what miracle after miracle would need to happen to give her the popular vote or a delegate lead.She'd have to win by 30 to even make it interesting.Me thinks you have not followed this race closely or understand much about what Hillary would need to do beyond a 10pt win in PA to believe this.
Tigran Petrosian
Footballguy
The media is milking the race. The math (and reality) say otherwise.Yup. And, even then, it wouldn't be very interesting. It's just not even remotely that close that a 30 point win would do anything.These folks who think it is are in a total delusion to the facts or simply haven't looked at what miracle after miracle would need to happen to give her the popular vote or a delegate lead.She'd have to win by 30 to even make it interesting.
BuddyKnuckles
Footballguy
the website says "Due to overwhelming response, we are encouraging everyone to donate at any time today. All donations will count towards the minute."Doesnt look like it happened, so they're trying to save face a bit. Either way, there's almost 1.4 million people who have donated to his campaign thus far. Still impressive
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Proud to be one of them. First time in any campaign. (And, I'm one who has traditionally voted for the Republicans)
Orange Crush
Footballguy
Either that, or the web servers crashed and a lot of the people who wanted to donate in the minute couldn't.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Separate polls show Clinton maintaining lead over Obama in Pennsylvania
Associated Press
Last update: April 21, 2008 - 9:55 AM
THE NUMBERS
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 51 percent
Barack Obama, 44 percent
OF INTEREST:
The race for Tuesday's primary has remained virtually unchanged in this poll since April 8, when a surge by Obama stopped. The latest poll shows Clinton continuing to run stronger among women, 57 percent to 38 percent, and voters 45 and older, 54 percent to 40 percent. Obama performed better among men, 53 percent to 42 percent, and younger voters, 57 percent to 41 percent.
___
The poll by Quinnipiac University in Connecticut was conducted by telephone from Friday through Sunday. It involved interviews with 1,027 likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
___
THE NUMBERS
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 52 percent
Barack Obama, 42 percent
___
OF INTEREST:
On the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, only 4 percent of the state's likely Democratic voters were still undecided and 2 percent refused to respond. Twenty percent said they would vote for the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, if their choice fails to win the Democratic nomination. Another 20 percent said they were undecided about what they would do in November if their favorite does not become the nominee, and 4 percent said they would support independent Ralph Nader.
___
The poll by Boston-based Suffolk University was conducted by telephone on Saturday and Sunday. It involved interviews with 600 likely Democratic voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Associated Press
Last update: April 21, 2008 - 9:55 AM
THE NUMBERS
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 51 percent
Barack Obama, 44 percent
OF INTEREST:
The race for Tuesday's primary has remained virtually unchanged in this poll since April 8, when a surge by Obama stopped. The latest poll shows Clinton continuing to run stronger among women, 57 percent to 38 percent, and voters 45 and older, 54 percent to 40 percent. Obama performed better among men, 53 percent to 42 percent, and younger voters, 57 percent to 41 percent.
___
The poll by Quinnipiac University in Connecticut was conducted by telephone from Friday through Sunday. It involved interviews with 1,027 likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
___
THE NUMBERS
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 52 percent
Barack Obama, 42 percent
___
OF INTEREST:
On the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, only 4 percent of the state's likely Democratic voters were still undecided and 2 percent refused to respond. Twenty percent said they would vote for the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, if their choice fails to win the Democratic nomination. Another 20 percent said they were undecided about what they would do in November if their favorite does not become the nominee, and 4 percent said they would support independent Ralph Nader.
___
The poll by Boston-based Suffolk University was conducted by telephone on Saturday and Sunday. It involved interviews with 600 likely Democratic voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
You do understand, don't you, that it has been a foregone conclusion that she takes PA by ~10, right? So, this update is no news.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Obama is on The Daily Show
Homer J Simpson
I don't push
BuddyKnuckles
Footballguy
well, he's in NY for the Daily Show, and his strength in PA is in the SE, so i am guessing somewhere in Philly. Rule out North and West (if you've been you know why), that leaves Center City, south Philly (unlikely), or the burbs. Everyone knows that the no one in the burbs plays hoops on weekdays, they stick to the YMCA leagues at night and weekends. The only good hoops courts in Center City are actually just off of South St.So, Obama will be playing at South St in Philly...right at the courts where i tuned up my game. Damn! Wish i was still back in that city.
Last edited by a moderator:
skol asylum
Footballguy
Obama wins tomorrrow and Hillary bows out on Wednesday.
<----- Fairytales can come true, they can happen to you, if you're young at heart....
<----- Fairytales can come true, they can happen to you, if you're young at heart....
Incorrect, in part. He was on The Daily Show via satellite feed from Pittsburgh. But he WILL be in Philly tomorrow to see his 8-9% loss in PA. I still don't know how anyone can in good conscious vote for Hillary Clinton, but there are obviously still millions of Americans who didn't have enough "Gates" in the 1990s.
Homer J Simpson
I don't push
Honestly the gas price thing really annoys the hell out of me, and I'm one of his biggest supporters. It's pandering, plain and simple.proninja said:
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
If it makes you feel any better, it's not like Obama is the first guy to ever tap this particular well. The other two candidates are all over this "issue," too.
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
So, I heard something important was happening today. What's up?
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
It's Earth Day. You didn't know?
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
Ah.Are we doing the global warming or freezing this year? I can never keep up.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
if Hillary stays in the race it will be freezing from the bottom up, if you catch my drift.
timschochet
Footballguy
All spin aside, I think any loss today is bad for Obama. Assuming he is going to be the Democratic candidate, he should not be losing a primary in late April in a state as large as Pennsylvania. There's a whole lot of Americans (perhaps a majority) who really haven't started paying close attention to this election yet. What they'll take from this is that there's a weakness, that not all of the Dems really are in love with Obama. This will create a feeling of uncertainty that may hurt him in November. The bigger Obama loses today, the worse this effect may become. Above every other factor in politics, America likes winners.
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
Hey, if we are going to do Hillary jokes all day, I'm in. My one true political regret is that Teddy Kennedy doesn't run for anything that I get a say in because I've got a ton of water jokes just splashing around in my head waiting to be poured out. But I can suffer through a day of Hillary jokes as compensation.
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
You don't win generals in March or April. And you rarely if ever lose them.September and October are the important months.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yes, losing an election tends to be a bad thing for the losing candidate.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I'd say that I hope Teddy gives Hill a ride across a long bridge, but then I think that sounds dirty so I don't say anything, just wish for it. The non-dirty version.
timschochet
Footballguy
I didn't say he's going to lose the general election because of today. I said this wouldn't help. All this talk that if he loses by only 5 points, that's a victory; that's all spin. It's not good for him.
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
Not to get too nerdy, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary, after selling her soul to Satan so early in life, didn't end up with Klingon system "down there." Teddy wouldn't have a prayer.Although, you have to give Bill credit for that one time he managed to get drunk enough...
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
You know what really grinds my gears?All this hatred for "spin." What is spin? The natural defination and explanation of a previous topic or statement. It is, by definition, a definition. A verbal dictionary, if you will. Is it not proper that the government arena, that arena of our society where explanation and verbal delivery of information is crucial and occurs daily, be complete with "spin?" Really, what's the big deal?If you work, you spin. If you play, you spin. If you want to get busy with the wife, you spin. It's the actual true use of our language. Politicians are good at it, and they pay people who are even better at it to help them. Washington's Fairwell Address? Spin. Lincoln's Gettysburgh Address? Spin. Roosevelt's "Fear" speech. Spin. If those greats did it, and we love them for it, why are we so bothered by it from others?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
You're assuming that's Bill's kid, right?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I'm dizzy.
timschochet
Footballguy
Not quite the definition I would use. I would call "spin" the deliberate slanted explanation of a topic to make people believe something about it. There's nothing wrong with spin so long as you recognize it for what it is. Every political campaign will always put the maximum positive slant on everything that happens. In this case, the Obama campaign has for weeks been putting out there that a 5 point loss today is actually a victory for Obama. Several people have repeated this on this thread. All I'm saying is that a 5 point loss, while certainly would be devastating for Hillary's chances, is NOT a victory for Obama.
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
Your definition. Your..... spin.
flufhed
Footballguy
Obama has some baggage that has zero to do with Hillary. And he and his wife have made some pretty big political missteps. And let's not forget he is a very liberal, first-time Seanator who is also black and whose name looks an awful lot like America's mortal enemy, and whose middle name is the same as America's #2 mortal enemy. If Obama loses the general, I put Hillary's tactics way down on the list of reasons why he lost.
flufhed
Footballguy
:goodpsoting:One could argue Hillary is in some ways doing him a favor. You wouldn't want the Wright stuff played on continuous loop in September and October. Better to get all of this stuff out in the open now, let him respond, let it sink in with people. All of it was coming out anyway.I really think a brief primary where Obama steamrolled and Hillary was out right after Super Tuesday wouuld have been disastrous.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
What's Edwards waiting for? Seems that his support would of been valuable to either candidate in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
He's waiting to see who the winner is so he can sue.ericttspikes said:
saintfool
Dead sexy
He was considering name changes before his career in public service but names like Rae Carruth and Woz don't exactly endear him to the public.flufhed said:Obama has some baggage that has zero to do with Hillary. And he and his wife have made some pretty big political missteps. And let's not forget he is a very liberal, first-time Seanator who is also black and whose name looks an awful lot like America's mortal enemy, and whose middle name is the same as America's #2 mortal enemy. If Obama loses the general, I put Hillary's tactics way down on the list of reasons why he lost.
Hammered Finz
Footballguy
I guess I'm one of the few who thinks that this nomination is still up for grabs..
Hillary has won the "big"states, and should win another today.. That matters.
Obama's popular vote lead could dwindle to about 1% or less after today, hardly convincing, plus there is Florida, where there are alot of angry voters who feel they aren't being counted..
Obama hasn't won any big states, and many of his wins were caucus states, not primaries, and many were BEFORE some of these blemishes such as the Reverand, Bitter comments, typical white person, etc, have come out... As someone said earlier, when this campaign began, not many were paying close attention- now they are, and all they are seeing are the negatives, as well as Obama not doing well in the states that the Dems need to carry to win in November..
I think the Super Ds are withholding votes because of these reasons- had every state held a primary, Hillary could be leading.. If the Dems took the Republican model, where the winner takes all comes into play, Hillary would have a bigger delegate lead on Obama then Obama has now..
If Hillary wins PA by 5-7% or more, this thing is going to the Convention.. The Supers are going to pick the most electable.. I'm not convinced either candidate has proven they are as of yet..
Full disclosure, I wouldn't vote for either, but if I had a gun to my head, I would vote for Obama...
Hillary has won the "big"states, and should win another today.. That matters.
Obama's popular vote lead could dwindle to about 1% or less after today, hardly convincing, plus there is Florida, where there are alot of angry voters who feel they aren't being counted..
Obama hasn't won any big states, and many of his wins were caucus states, not primaries, and many were BEFORE some of these blemishes such as the Reverand, Bitter comments, typical white person, etc, have come out... As someone said earlier, when this campaign began, not many were paying close attention- now they are, and all they are seeing are the negatives, as well as Obama not doing well in the states that the Dems need to carry to win in November..
I think the Super Ds are withholding votes because of these reasons- had every state held a primary, Hillary could be leading.. If the Dems took the Republican model, where the winner takes all comes into play, Hillary would have a bigger delegate lead on Obama then Obama has now..
If Hillary wins PA by 5-7% or more, this thing is going to the Convention.. The Supers are going to pick the most electable.. I'm not convinced either candidate has proven they are as of yet..
Full disclosure, I wouldn't vote for either, but if I had a gun to my head, I would vote for Obama...
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
The only reason I disagree with this is that North Carolina is right around the corner and will shut the door on any remaining shread of possibility that Clinton can catch Obama in the popular vote count. That was really the last hope that she has been clinging to as a way to justify the SDs lining up behind her. Winning PA by 5-7% really loses ground for her because of the amount she needs to make up. The one consistent message from the superdelegates has been that they won't overturn the will of the majority of Democratic voters. By the end of this, Obama will have won over twice as many states, have more delegates, and more total votes. Even her electability appeals are not backed up by any tangible eveidence. Obama has actually gained ground in PA through all the recent issues and hasn't seen much change in national polls against McCain.
