Reggie Bush (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

Reggie was the worst starting RB in the NFL last year and it wasn't even that close.

I think Bears fans will argue with you about Cedric Benson there.............

Actually I wouldn't. Cedric hurt more because he was on my team, but he still had more rushing yards than Bush did. Bush = overhyped kick returner.

 

[TheFanatic]

Reggie was the worst starting RB in the NFL last year and it wasn't even that close.

I think Bears fans will argue with you about Cedric Benson there.............

Actually I wouldn't. Cedric hurt more because he was on my team, but he still had more rushing yards than Bush did. Bush = overhyped kick returner.

Don't forget that he has some receiving ability. He might make a good WR3 for some team in the NFL some day.

 

[texasheat]

Reggie was the worst starting RB in the NFL last year and it wasn't even that close.

I think Bears fans will argue with you about Cedric Benson there.............

Benson was at least able to break 600 yards rushing

Julius Jones down?

 

[FUBAR]

It's just very difficult to justify Bush's overall performance based on the extreme threat he represents, when that threat hasn't really materialized in two years, even in his good games. 86 players (71 RBs) had runs longer than Reggie Bush this year, and obviously that includes that games where the stars were aligned and no excuses can be found. 68 backs had longer runs in his rookie year. That's like every starting back in the NFL plus every back-up in the NFL, plus a few more guys produced a longer run than Bush in both years he's been in the league. And this is supposedly Reggie's STRENGTH.

Once again, you're only looking at his RUNS. Add in his 74 yard reception, which IIRC was mostly YAC, and how does he rate?2008 was a bad year for him and the Saints, if I didn't believe he'd bounce back I'd agree with his critics. I just think he will.

 

[jurb26]

How can a guy who's value has never been lower be a sell high canidate? What could you possibly dupe an owner into giving you that would be considered a good trade for this guy? Sell high in a PPR maybe but, I'd say at this point your not losing any value keeping him and he may turn out like he was his first year.

This is the best post of the thread.

 

[gianmarco]

I've been buying since mid last yr; he was doing quite well when Duece went down and before his injury

Reggie was quoted as to saying that his PCL Injury was during Week 9; I believe...

From Week 5 too 9 when he was the full time starter

Reggie had 84 Att for 354 for a 4.21 YPC

He also had over 110 total yds in 4 of those 5 games

After Week 9, you can see where he had some issues... his attempts dropped, his YPC took a serious hit; overall, you can tell he was injuried and he gutted out 4 more games.

also, see here

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...50&start=50

This is a Reggie Bush is not a guy you can just look at the final #'s and say he failed miserably. There are very legit explanations for what he put up. Weeks 1-3, the ENTIRE Saint's offense was off-track and the reason for all their trouble during those first 3 weeks (and even some into week 4) was the O-line. It simply was out of sync and not playing well at all. Brees had no time and there were no running lanes open at all. Everyone was down on Brees after those first 4 weeks until the O-line dramatically turned it around and gave him some time to throw. Not coincidentally, as KH points out above, Bush's #'s improved during his first stint as being the main ball carrier. While 4.2 ypc isn't earth-shattering, he also had 34 receptions for 207 yds and 2 TDs during those 5 weeks.

Then, the injury occurred and his #'s plummeted. While he tried to play on it, you could tell by watching him things weren't the same. There are more than enough reasons to explain his poor cumulative 2007 performance. It's very easy to look at a final stat-line and draw a conclusion. It's another thing to look a little closer, paying particular attention to gamelogs and understand the timing for what took place. This is not to say that other RB's have it rosy and that they don't have obstacles to overcome. That's not it at all. 2008 is essentially Bush's "judgment" year and he needs to finally get it done. However, the reason one should reserve shutting the book on him is what he's shown he's capable of. Look back to the 2nd half of 2006 and you can see how potent he can be.

Guys, I'll buy that to some degree, and maybe you are right. However, all five of those games were against mediocre to bad rush defenses, and as you point out, even in that five game stretch, it's not like he's TOTALLY lighting it up. The only game where he was downright impressive was against the 9ers.Do you see where that just sounds like a bunch of excuses after a while? First 3 games were the O-lines fault and the fact that Deuce was still around, last couple of games were because of injury etc. If you were allowed to cherry pick games like for any of the OTHER starters in the NFL, they'd look a lot better too. There are almost ALWAYS "legit explanations" for poor numbers.

It's just very difficult to justify Bush's overall performance based on the extreme threat he represents, when that threat hasn't really materialized in two years, even in his good games. 86 players (71 RBs) had runs longer than Reggie Bush this year, and obviously that includes that games where the stars were aligned and no excuses can be found. 68 backs had longer runs in his rookie year. That's like every starting back in the NFL plus every back-up in the NFL, plus a few more guys produced a longer run than Bush in both years he's been in the league. And this is supposedly Reggie's STRENGTH.

Still, I get where you are coming from, and if I still had Bush on my roster I'd look at that stretch as a sign of hope. He certainly looked a little better in that stretch than the rest of the year.

Believe me, I understand what you're saying and I 100% understand where the Bush critics are coming from. The guy hasn't lived up to the huge hype to this point. And maybe they will turn out to be excuses in the end. I'm not saying that he's definitely going to turn it around. Not saying that at all. I'm in 4 dynasty leagues and I'm a big Saint's fan and I don't own Reggie Bush in any leagues. I kind of wish I did, but it's not a priority of mine.That being said, I think the people labeling him a bust might be doing so prematurely. I've seen plenty of other players given a lot more leeway in terms of living up to potential. Part of that is the tremendous hype that he hasn't lived up to. Maybe it was too large to begin with. Part of it is just how bad his #'s have been. Part of it is that he's just not your prototypical RB and many people are more comfortable with a guy that is going to get 250-300 carries/year and run for 1200+ yds/10 TDs if he's being taken in the 1st round. There is no doubt that Bush's main value lies in PPR leagues. But, even considering all those things, there are signs that he can put up big #'s. I could understand all the "he's a bust for sure" talk if he'd NEVER put up #'s. But for 1/4th of his short 2 yr career, he was pretty big in PPR scoring. 1st round big. Given some of the circumstances, I think it's POSSIBLE he turns it around. Some of it will depend on Bush himself and what he's learned and some of it will depend on the Saint's supporting cast and coaching staff and play calling and whether or not he's utilized better a la 2006 vs. 2007. I just don't think we have enough to say he'll never get it at this point. That's all.

 

[3nOut]

He is terrible between the tackles...

Has anyone ever really shown via some stats where Bush really ranks in runs "between the tackles". I'd like to see some info backing that up.

 

[KellysHeroes]

He is terrible between the tackles...

Has anyone ever really shown via some stats where Bush really ranks in runs "between the tackles". I'd like to see some info backing that up.

Not sure what u offically stat "in between the tackles"; But Reggie is a very good GL. Look it up; GL and 3rd - shorts.... he is usually very successful.

 

[Liquid Tension]

He is terrible between the tackles...

Has anyone ever really shown via some stats where Bush really ranks in runs "between the tackles". I'd like to see some info backing that up.

Not sure what u offically stat "in between the tackles"; But Reggie is a very good GL. Look it up; GL and 3rd - shorts.... he is usually very successful.

I could have started a new thread, but I have attached the NFL Network video of Reggie for your review.The thing about Reggie that really bothered me was the lack of elusiveness he showed last year. the first guy would consistently make the tackle on him. I also thought his vision was very poor. Comparing him to Westbrook is absurd at this point because Westbrook is the best back in the league at making the 1st guy miss. Bush having 7 fumbles was awful as well.

Now we have to remember that Reggie turned 23 in March of this year so he is still very young. He does have great speed and catching ability and in the past he showed good vision and elusiveness. He is very hard to project because what I saw last year really turned me off from him, but I do think it was a little bit of aberration. That being said, I was NOT one of the people hyping him out of college and I expected a performance more like last year than in college. I believe there is some room in between with expected growth and maturity of realizing that in the NFL your great physical ability will not be the only thing to make you successful (like in college).

Hard to project, but I think Reggie will turn out to be a valuable NFL player, but his fantasy value will be more for PPR leagues (of which I don't play or like) and the non PPr leagues will see a guy who is a great 3rd RB type, but a weak starter.

Reggie on the NFL Network

 

[KellysHeroes]

That video was one about Farve...

I still like Bush as a late 1st Rounder, especailly in Dynasty. Plus, in all but one league I play in, RBs get anywhere from 1 to .5PPR... so maybe that influences me on him. Hes the starting RB on a great offense; so if you been getting him past pick 14 or so, chances are he should produce wheres hes being drafted.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I've tried hard to buy Reggie high and can't pry him from his owners.

They did you a favor.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Completely from a fantasy standpoint; let's take a closer look at Reggie's stats.

- 28 Games Played

- 1146 Rushing Yards (41/Game)

- 1159 Receiving Yards (41/Game)

- 14 Total TDs.

So basically, you can expect roughly 80 total yards and 1/2 a TD a game. If he averaged these numbers over a full 16 games, where would he have ranked the last three seasons (Non-PPR)?

2005 - RB13

2006 - RB15

2007 - RB12

Seems like if you can get Bush as your RB2, he's actually a pretty good value with an undeniable high upside.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I've been buying since mid last yr; he was doing quite well when Duece went down and before his injury

Hey KellysHeroes,Wondering what happened to that quote of mine in your sig? Steven Jackson is much more valuable than Reggie Bush in dynasty leagues . . . or something to that effect.I recall that you kept it in there while S-Jax was injured last season, but it lost its way somewhere between then and now. IIRC, you said it was motivation for you to keep Bush rated higher than S-Jax.Just curious

 

[Liquid Tension]

That video was one about Farve...I still like Bush as a late 1st Rounder, especailly in Dynasty. Plus, in all but one league I play in, RBs get anywhere from 1 to .5PPR... so maybe that influences me on him. Hes the starting RB on a great offense; so if you been getting him past pick 14 or so, chances are he should produce wheres hes being drafted.

Not sure why it switched, but you can click on the Bush one on the bottom right

 

[KellysHeroes]

I've been buying since mid last yr; he was doing quite well when Duece went down and before his injury

Hey KellysHeroes,Wondering what happened to that quote of mine in your sig? Steven Jackson is much more valuable than Reggie Bush in dynasty leagues . . . or something to that effect.I recall that you kept it in there while S-Jax was injured last season, but it lost its way somewhere between then and now. IIRC, you said it was motivation for you to keep Bush rated higher than S-Jax.Just curious

it must of washed off I still like Reggie, good chance he'll surprise. SJax will most likely break some hearts again when hes missing 4 games.I can not see myself taking Jackson in the top 4 picks.

 

[zed2283]

Well I don't know about the stats, but I did watch every Saints game last year. Bush was hurt his last 3-4 games and clearly didn't have the burst, etc. so you have to throw out those games. Also, Payton was way too pass happy last year and there was no way for Reggie to get into the RB's proverbial rhythm. There were PLENTY of times where he was popping off 5, 6, 7 yards up the middle and then Peyton would just start throwing again. It was maddening to watch.

I'm holding.

There were times he was running very well between the tackles and Payton would just go away from it. Drove me nuts.Believe it.

 

[Interseptopus]

The thing with Bush is that yes he's not a great NFL RB.

But what's hopeful for Bush is that if we look at his total stats...

FBGs has Bush projected at 606 rushing yards, 81 receptions, 583 receiving yards, and a total of 10 TDs. 606- awful for a RB... but look at his TOTAL stats: 1189 total yards, 81 receptions, 10 TDs. Okay, that is 259.9 fantasy points, or 16.2 per game.

I don't know about you, but if my RB2 scored me 16.2 per game I'd be thrilled.

Yes, Reggie Bush will not be considered a #1 back until he can post close to 1000 rushing yards alone. But I'm pretty sure everyone's gotten off the Reggie Bush #1 RB juice and now they rank him more where he should be- as RB2.

Not to mention, Bush still is only 23 years old. He has a lot of upside and a lot of growing up to do physically. Once NO figures out how to use him he'll really bust loose

 

[phthalatemagic]

I've been buying since mid last yr; he was doing quite well when Duece went down and before his injury

Hey KellysHeroes,Wondering what happened to that quote of mine in your sig? Steven Jackson is much more valuable than Reggie Bush in dynasty leagues . . . or something to that effect.

I recall that you kept it in there while S-Jax was injured last season, but it lost its way somewhere between then and now. IIRC, you said it was motivation for you to keep Bush rated higher than S-Jax.

Just curious

it must of washed off I still like Reggie, good chance he'll surprise. SJax will most likely break some hearts again when hes missing 4 games.

I can not see myself taking Jackson in the top 4 picks.

Do you see yourself winning at fantasy football?

 

[Interseptopus]

I've been buying since mid last yr; he was doing quite well when Duece went down and before his injury

Hey KellysHeroes,Wondering what happened to that quote of mine in your sig? Steven Jackson is much more valuable than Reggie Bush in dynasty leagues . . . or something to that effect.

I recall that you kept it in there while S-Jax was injured last season, but it lost its way somewhere between then and now. IIRC, you said it was motivation for you to keep Bush rated higher than S-Jax.

Just curious

it must of washed off I still like Reggie, good chance he'll surprise. SJax will most likely break some hearts again when hes missing 4 games.

I can not see myself taking Jackson in the top 4 picks.

Do you see yourself winning at fantasy football?

Who are these suckers and how can I get them in my league? I need a couple easy wins to help me win the pot!

 

[KellysHeroes]

Who are these suckers and how can I get them in my league? I need a couple easy wins to help me win the pot!

Hey guys, how many Sjax owners won your leagues last yr? In my leagues.... The Sjax owner didn't do so good.

 

[Interseptopus]

Who are these suckers and how can I get them in my league? I need a couple easy wins to help me win the pot!

Hey guys, how many Sjax owners won your leagues last yr? In my leagues.... The Sjax owner didn't do so good.

I'm not talking about last year. I'm talking about THIS year. You said you wouldn't take SJ in the top 4 picks. I highly disagree. Last season many thought he could have been the #1 RB. I think this season he rebounds a lot and has a much better year. I don't like him very much, but I can at least recognize a guy with talent. Not to mention, kind of ridiculous to predict a guy will have a down year, and then when he gets hurt to claim that you called it all along and that he's awful... let's see how he does 100% healthy and then maybe you'll have something to tlak aboutWhat RB would you have ahead of Jackson? My personal rankings, without giving anything away on who I think will be a newcomer in the top 5 (so the generic top 5), would beLTAPJacksonAddaiWestbrookFYI- The guy in my league with SJax was 1 point away from winning round 1, and then would have eventually won 3rd place. Not bad for the top player being out

 

[BigRed]

Reggie gave the least bang for your buck of any RB out there FROM AN NFL PERSPECTIVE.

Who cares? All I care about is his FF value.

Guy plays in a high octane offense, is a pass catching stud out of the backfield, although his ypc are not very high, plays ona team with Deuce(2 ACLs torn now), and Pierre Thomas who is largely unknown...what is not to like? We all know he can't carry the ball 20 times a game but he can sure knock in 1,200-1,500 total yds, catch upwards of 75-80 balls which in PPR leagues is pretty darn good, and probably knock in 6-8 TD minimum...

If you wanted to sell him high you would've traded the pick when he was a rookie. His value was never higher than it was then. Selling now is not selling high. Selling after he has two seasons where he can't break the 600 yard mark rushing is not selling high.

Exactly on both counts.And while he does suck in non-PPR, we do PPR so he is on the list as a potential RB2, although definitely down the list for me vs others.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Reggie gave the least bang for your buck of any RB out there FROM AN NFL PERSPECTIVE.

Who cares? All I care about is his FF value.

Guy plays in a high octane offense, is a pass catching stud out of the backfield, although his ypc are not very high, plays ona team with Deuce(2 ACLs torn now), and Pierre Thomas who is largely unknown...what is not to like? We all know he can't carry the ball 20 times a game but he can sure knock in 1,200-1,500 total yds, catch upwards of 75-80 balls which in PPR leagues is pretty darn good, and probably knock in 6-8 TD minimum...

If you wanted to sell him high you would've traded the pick when he was a rookie. His value was never higher than it was then. Selling now is not selling high. Selling after he has two seasons where he can't break the 600 yard mark rushing is not selling high.

Exactly on both counts.And while he does suck in non-PPR, we do PPR so he is on the list as a potential RB2, although definitely down the list for me vs others.

I think both of these points have been addressed before but...His FF value will follow his NFL value when his (I was a very high draft pick) free pass expires. If he was a 2nd day draft pick, he would have been benched before now, and my opinion is that he will be relied on less and less as we move forward. His stats up until now have been almost exclusively driven my massive amounts of opportunity. As that opportunity dries up, so will the stats (and his value).As for selling high, it's a RELATIVE high. Right now he's listed as easily a top 15 RB, and as high as top 10 or better by some. If you can get the kind of value for him now, and you sell, and then his value plummets over the course of the year, you have sold high (even if it wasn't at his peak value). So if you BELIEVE that his value will continue to drop (as I do), you can still sell "high" pretty easily.

 

[Tanner9919]

Welcome to the non-Reggie Bush Bandwagon.Population: Everyone But You Up Until Now...

There's still room on the bandwagon for the other 3rd year RB from cali. The MJD bandwagon is filling up fast so make sure to grab a seat while you can. I'll open the door for you as I'm driving that bus!!!

I'm in , save me a seat on the Non-MJD-Bandwagon! Jones-Drew just went in the second round on an online mock draft I'm participating in..:wow:As long as Fred Taylor is in town, MJD is nothing more than another Dave Meggett ..as for Bush,you're right,the time to trade him was after his rookie season..you can still get good value for him ,esp in PPR leagues, but he doesn't carry the same value as he did at the start of last season..

 

[KellysHeroes]

His value is low... better off on just holding and hoping he develops this yr.

 

[hickbones]

I'm in PPR leagues and here's the bottom line:

2006:

MJD was ranked 7th at end of year

Bush was ranked 8th

2007:

MJD was 12th

Bush was 13th

This is fantasy football and all I care about is points. I would be stoked to have either of these guys as my RB2...not stoked at RB1. You won't find better production from any RB's in a committee elsewhere in the NFL (except for All-Day and The Barbarian, whom I would like to have as RB1's).

I would rather have MJD as he runs as well as anyone in the NFL and is getting it done while Taylor still has respectable numbers. Bush has proven that his value is not going to increase when he's the only back. MJD, however, will be a STUD if and when something happens to Fred (2 years max, IMO).

The jury is still out on Bush longterm, but MJD is proven already.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Reggie gave the least bang for your buck of any RB out there FROM AN NFL PERSPECTIVE.

Who cares? All I care about is his FF value.

Guy plays in a high octane offense, is a pass catching stud out of the backfield, although his ypc are not very high, plays ona team with Deuce(2 ACLs torn now), and Pierre Thomas who is largely unknown...what is not to like? We all know he can't carry the ball 20 times a game but he can sure knock in 1,200-1,500 total yds, catch upwards of 75-80 balls which in PPR leagues is pretty darn good, and probably knock in 6-8 TD minimum...

If you wanted to sell him high you would've traded the pick when he was a rookie. His value was never higher than it was then. Selling now is not selling high. Selling after he has two seasons where he can't break the 600 yard mark rushing is not selling high.

Exactly on both counts.And while he does suck in non-PPR, we do PPR so he is on the list as a potential RB2, although definitely down the list for me vs others.

No, no, no. Check out my earlier post. His per game averages in non-PPR leagues put him around RB12-14 for the last three years. Yeah; it's not LT, but it is definitely starting RB material.The stats on Bush fool people.

Say Willis McGahee posts the folowing stats:

1100 yds rushing; 8 TDs

216 yds receiving; 1 TD

Bush:

685 yds rushing; 6 TDs

631 yds receiving; 3 TDs

Final year end fantasy points for both are the same; McGahee LOOKS like the better RB though.

 

[AB in DC]

Going back to the OP,

The reason why Bush was second-to-last in DVOA last year was because of his seven fumbles. DVOA gives huge penalties for fumbles, but it's something that Bush can work on and fix (see Tiki Barber about ten years ago), not something intrinsic about his ability.

 

[hickbones]

So far I am not impressed with DVOA and its application to fantasy football. I've never heard of DVOA, but to put Bush below Benson in fantasy circles is a huge mistake. However, if Bush stinks it up this year for the Saints and starts to fall off the planet, I will be very impressed with DVOA's ability to show future trends based on historical performance from an NFL team's perspective. We'll see.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

So far I am not impressed with DVOA and its application to fantasy football. I've never heard of DVOA, but to put Bush below Benson in fantasy circles is a huge mistake. However, if Bush stinks it up this year for the Saints and starts to fall off the planet, I will be very impressed with DVOA's ability to show future trends based on historical performance from an NFL team's perspective. We'll see.

Is it September yet?

 

[bonesman]

Well I don't know about the stats, but I did watch every Saints game last year. Bush was hurt his last 3-4 games and clearly didn't have the burst, etc. so you have to throw out those games. Also, Peyton was way too pass happy last year and there was no way for Reggie to get into the RB's proverbial rhythm. There were PLENTY of times where he was popping off 5, 6, 7 yards up the middle and then Peyton would just start throwing again. It was maddening to watch.

I'm holding.

no... you have to include those games. This is the NFL where men play injured all the time. I began labeling Bush "Injury Prone" after his first season. He takes to many hits and they are HARD because there's an animosity against Reggie Bush in the NFL because he's the 2nd highest paid player from endorsements in ANY sport (2nd or 3rd I think... top 5 for sure... Tiger is #1 of course).... for some reason this motivates defenders to really wallop him... and from what I've seen his pain threshold is not zen-monk like. Bush will continue to be hampered by injuries and since he relies on speed rather than power, his effectiveness will steadily diminish. IMO, of course.

 

[Iron_Far]

He takes to many hits and they are HARD because there's an animosity against Reggie Bush in the NFL because he's the 2nd highest paid player from endorsements in ANY sport (2nd or 3rd I think... top 5 for sure... Tiger is #1 of course).... for some reason this motivates defenders to really wallop him...

Most FBG's don't know this....... so of course brainiac linemen and 'backers around the league KNOW and are extra motivated by this?

 

[joffer]

He takes to many hits and they are HARD because there's an animosity against Reggie Bush in the NFL because he's the 2nd highest paid player from endorsements in ANY sport (2nd or 3rd I think... top 5 for sure... Tiger is #1 of course).... for some reason this motivates defenders to really wallop him...

OMG

 

[Ripleys]

I'm happy to have Bush as my #2 RB in a PPR league. Although in most of my leagues, he's my #3. Even better. I do think he's going to have his best year to date. Also interesting that he says his favorite play is actually running up the middle. Sounds like he really WANTS to be an all purpose back, not just a run to the outside speed guy.

 

[KellysHeroes]

The Biloxi Sun Herald guesses that Reggie Bush will get 215 carries and 85 receptions this season.

The paper also guesses that Bush will total 1,700 yards and 13 TDs, which would make him a first-round fantasy pick. We're not sure about the totals (especially the scores), but Bush is setup for a career-high workload if he stays healthy. Deuce McAllister is unlikely to be an impact player and the Saints don't seem ready to give Pierre Thomas a major role just yet.

I think those totals are a little high, those totals alone would give him 333.5 pts this season...

I agree w/ a couple of the posters above, Reggie should be targetted as a #2 this yr.

I got him in 3 leagues, 2 of which I have him and MBIII as RB1 & 2.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Well I don't know about the stats, but I did watch every Saints game last year. Bush was hurt his last 3-4 games and clearly didn't have the burst, etc. so you have to throw out those games. Also, Peyton was way too pass happy last year and there was no way for Reggie to get into the RB's proverbial rhythm. There were PLENTY of times where he was popping off 5, 6, 7 yards up the middle and then Peyton would just start throwing again. It was maddening to watch.

I'm holding.

no... you have to include those games. This is the NFL where men play injured all the time. I began labeling Bush "Injury Prone" after his first season. He takes to many hits and they are HARD because there's an animosity against Reggie Bush in the NFL because he's the 2nd highest paid player from endorsements in ANY sport (2nd or 3rd I think... top 5 for sure... Tiger is #1 of course).... for some reason this motivates defenders to really wallop him... and from what I've seen his pain threshold is not zen-monk like. Bush will continue to be hampered by injuries and since he relies on speed rather than power, his effectiveness will steadily diminish. IMO, of course.

NONSESNE at its finest!I have been in many drafts this year and Bush simply does not get out of round 2 in any PPR league. I would take him right now as my RB #2 in any PPR league but have not drafted him much because i have not gone RB/RB in many drafts yet.. This will be the year to find out what Bush is all about. He has worked out hard this off season and put on some weight with added muscle and has quietly stated he is looking for a big year. I have a feeling he comes around and has a very good year.

That illustrates a point I've been trying to get across. It is most definitely possible to still "sell high" on this guy. There are MANY people out there (look at this thread for example) who are still total believers. They look at the stats from the last couple of years and just assume it will all continue regardless of his lack of production. This gives you as an owner an excellent "out" should you choose to take it. People act like you have nothing to lose by hanging on to him for a year and that is patently untrue. You can still get a nice player for Bush. Next year, maybe not.As for the added weight, that seems a little strange. The dude has been absolutely ripped since he's been in the NFL. Not sure how much more weight he could effectively carry. Maybe he tried to thicken up his lower body a little bit. If so, that might help.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Going back to the OP,The reason why Bush was second-to-last in DVOA last year was because of his seven fumbles. DVOA gives huge penalties for fumbles, but it's something that Bush can work on and fix (see Tiki Barber about ten years ago), not something intrinsic about his ability.

I'm not trying to pimp DVOA as the be-all-end-all of statistical measurement. It's a just a solid tool that takes into account some of things that other measurements don't (opponents defense, situation etc.). If your best defense of Bush's production is, "Yeah, but he fumbles a lot", that's pretty rough. I get what you are saying about being able to fix it, but that seems fairly rare in practice. Tiki seemed to get a handle on it, but most don't improve drastically if they start out weak in that area.Based on his first couple of years, Bush is going to look bad with pretty much any system/stat you throw out there when it comes to rushing the ball. DVOA is one where he looks particularly bad, but good luck finding one where he looks good if you factor in his opportunities.

 

[Mene]

Who are these suckers and how can I get them in my league? I need a couple easy wins to help me win the pot!

Hey guys, how many Sjax owners won your leagues last yr? In my leagues.... The Sjax owner didn't do so good.

I owned SJax in two competitive money leagues last year and my team was in the championship game in both leagues. Won one (ppr), lost one(non-ppr), but he was key in my push for the playoffs and IN the playoffs. With everything that was against him last year (OL issues, Injuries, Inconsistancy abound in the Offense), his numbers were damn impressive. I'm sitting at 3rd pick in a ppr that I run and I'll tell you right now, it'll be SJax again with complete and full confidence.As far as Bush, I'm willing to write last year off for the most part. NO was terrible early last year, the entire team... any Brees owner can give horror stories of the first month. That certainly didn't help Bush any. Add the PCL injury late in the year.... I expect a return to numbers closer to his rookie season, with a tick up in fact due to maturity and what appears to be more focus on his part. I'm expecting 170/700/6 rushing & 80/650/6 rec, which adds up to one hell of a nice FF RB. Stop looking for protoypical numbers from him, and recognize that he is a weapon a little different than we are used to seeing. He's never going to live up to the lofty expectations, but I don't care. I don't want him for my real life NFL team, I just want fantasy numbers. He's given us a glimpse of what he can do when healthy and used correctly.

 

[Spike]

Holy Schneikes:Thanks for your post and starting this thread. I always appreciate counterpoints to challenge my preconceptions.

Great post.For the large number of people who will trash a poster who submits a different opinion than theirs, this should be required reading.

 

[saintfool]

Local Projection Calls For Busier Reggie Bush (7/20 9:42 PT)The Facts: Sun-Herald staffer Larry Holder expects to see more of the Bush of 2006 rather than the injury- and struggle-plagued season from a year ago. Staying in New Orleans throughout the offseason certainly won't hurt his production and his standing with his teammates. Holder added: "I'll just throw out some numbers I'd expect: 215 carries, 85 catches, 1,700 combined yards, 13 total touchdowns." Reported by the Biloxi Sun-Herald

i think it's also worth mentioning that NO instituted a zone blocking scheme for the first time last year. i think it is no small thing to change your running game like that. likely, this contributed to their struggles on the ground early in the season. players - linemen and RBs - were able to acclimate more as the season progressed. now, with a second year under their belts, the guys should be more comfortable with it all. i expect a bounce back year for Bush.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Who are these suckers and how can I get them in my league? I need a couple easy wins to help me win the pot!

Hey guys, how many Sjax owners won your leagues last yr? In my leagues.... The Sjax owner didn't do so good.

I owned SJax in two competitive money leagues last year and my team was in the championship game in both leagues. Won one (ppr), lost one(non-ppr), but he was key in my push for the playoffs and IN the playoffs. With everything that was against him last year (OL issues, Injuries, Inconsistancy abound in the Offense), his numbers were damn impressive. I'm sitting at 3rd pick in a ppr that I run and I'll tell you right now, it'll be SJax again with complete and full confidence.As far as Bush, I'm willing to write last year off for the most part. NO was terrible early last year, the entire team... any Brees owner can give horror stories of the first month. That certainly didn't help Bush any. Add the PCL injury late in the year.... I expect a return to numbers closer to his rookie season, with a tick up in fact due to maturity and what appears to be more focus on his part. I'm expecting 170/700/6 rushing & 80/650/6 rec, which adds up to one hell of a nice FF RB. Stop looking for protoypical numbers from him, and recognize that he is a weapon a little different than we are used to seeing. He's never going to live up to the lofty expectations, but I don't care. I don't want him for my real life NFL team, I just want fantasy numbers. He's given us a glimpse of what he can do when healthy and used correctly.

you and any other SJax owner who made it to the playoffs last yr must of had a good set of RBs... the guy only had 290 yds & 0 TDs in the 1st 7 weeks of the season.

 

[TheFanatic]

No, no, no. Check out my earlier post. His per game averages in non-PPR leagues put him around RB12-14 for the last three years. Yeah; it's not LT, but it is definitely starting RB material.

Wow is this way off. He finished 12-14 in the last 3 years in nonPPR? He finished 23rd last year in non PPR and 14th the year before that. And he didn't finish in the 12-14 range three years ago either since he was still starting for USC and not New Orleans....

 

[PranksterJD]

No, no, no. Check out my earlier post. His per game averages in non-PPR leagues put him around RB12-14 for the last three years. Yeah; it's not LT, but it is definitely starting RB material.

Wow is this way off. He finished 12-14 in the last 3 years in nonPPR? He finished 23rd last year in non PPR and 14th the year before that. And he didn't finish in the 12-14 range three years ago either since he was still starting for USC and not New Orleans....

Agreed on the USC thing obviously, but Reggie wouldn't have been RB23 in PPG last year in most formats. Much closer to RB15-18 or so I would think. Granted, not a huge difference, but worth mentioning.

 

[TheFanatic]

No, no, no. Check out my earlier post. His per game averages in non-PPR leagues put him around RB12-14 for the last three years. Yeah; it's not LT, but it is definitely starting RB material.

Wow is this way off. He finished 12-14 in the last 3 years in nonPPR? He finished 23rd last year in non PPR and 14th the year before that. And he didn't finish in the 12-14 range three years ago either since he was still starting for USC and not New Orleans....

Agreed on the USC thing obviously, but Reggie wouldn't have been RB23 in PPG last year in most formats. Much closer to RB15-18 or so I would think. Granted, not a huge difference, but worth mentioning.

What is PPG? Do you mean in PPR? This is about non PPR leagues and the Jockstrap is way off in his post.Not sure what Reggie did in PPR leagues but I'm guessing quite well...

 

[PranksterJD]

No, no, no. Check out my earlier post. His per game averages in non-PPR leagues put him around RB12-14 for the last three years. Yeah; it's not LT, but it is definitely starting RB material.

Wow is this way off. He finished 12-14 in the last 3 years in nonPPR? He finished 23rd last year in non PPR and 14th the year before that. And he didn't finish in the 12-14 range three years ago either since he was still starting for USC and not New Orleans....

Agreed on the USC thing obviously, but Reggie wouldn't have been RB23 in PPG last year in most formats. Much closer to RB15-18 or so I would think. Granted, not a huge difference, but worth mentioning.

What is PPG? Do you mean in PPR? This is about non PPR leagues and the Jockstrap is way off in his post.Not sure what Reggie did in PPR leagues but I'm guessing quite well...

Points Per Game, which is what OP was talking about. Even in non-Points Per Reception leagues, Reggie would have been around the RB15-RB18 range based on his weekly average.

 

[TheFanatic]

No, no, no. Check out my earlier post. His per game averages in non-PPR leagues put him around RB12-14 for the last three years. Yeah; it's not LT, but it is definitely starting RB material.

Wow is this way off. He finished 12-14 in the last 3 years in nonPPR? He finished 23rd last year in non PPR and 14th the year before that. And he didn't finish in the 12-14 range three years ago either since he was still starting for USC and not New Orleans....

Agreed on the USC thing obviously, but Reggie wouldn't have been RB23 in PPG last year in most formats. Much closer to RB15-18 or so I would think. Granted, not a huge difference, but worth mentioning.

What is PPG? Do you mean in PPR? This is about non PPR leagues and the Jockstrap is way off in his post.Not sure what Reggie did in PPR leagues but I'm guessing quite well...

Points Per Game, which is what OP was talking about. Even in non-Points Per Reception leagues, Reggie would have been around the RB15-RB18 range based on his weekly average.

Oh, I get it. Sorry, just got back from vacation and am still recovering. PPG is a nice stat but misleading. He's getting me zero when he's out. Taking out the games he missed when calculating his worth is akin to saying, "yeah but if you take out that long run he would only have X.XX YPC for that game." But he had the long run. To selectively leave it out is misleading. To selectively leave out the games he misses is misleading in the opposite direction....He put up zeroes in those games.

One of the basic requirements for a good FFB player is to be on the field. No way around that. The less a guy is on the field, the less chance he has to be a good football player unless of course you get rewarded at the end of the season for PPG. My league doesn't and I wouldn't play in a league that does.

Take a look at Javon Walker. After two weeks last season the guy had a PPG of around 11 in non PPR leagues. He was on pace for a top 10 season (176 points to finish 9th just ahead of Marshall). That PPG and a quarter wouldn't buy you a stamp last year.

 

[Jayrod]

No, no, no. Check out my earlier post. His per game averages in non-PPR leagues put him around RB12-14 for the last three years. Yeah; it's not LT, but it is definitely starting RB material.

Wow is this way off. He finished 12-14 in the last 3 years in nonPPR? He finished 23rd last year in non PPR and 14th the year before that. And he didn't finish in the 12-14 range three years ago either since he was still starting for USC and not New Orleans....

Agreed on the USC thing obviously, but Reggie wouldn't have been RB23 in PPG last year in most formats. Much closer to RB15-18 or so I would think. Granted, not a huge difference, but worth mentioning.

What is PPG? Do you mean in PPR? This is about non PPR leagues and the Jockstrap is way off in his post.Not sure what Reggie did in PPR leagues but I'm guessing quite well...

Points Per Game, which is what OP was talking about. Even in non-Points Per Reception leagues, Reggie would have been around the RB15-RB18 range based on his weekly average.

Oh, I get it. Sorry, just got back from vacation and am still recovering. PPG is a nice stat but misleading. He's getting me zero when he's out. Taking out the games he missed when calculating his worth is akin to saying, "yeah but if you take out that long run he would only have X.XX YPC for that game." But he had the long run. To selectively leave it out is misleading. To selectively leave out the games he misses is misleading in the opposite direction....He put up zeroes in those games.

One of the basic requirements for a good FFB player is to be on the field. No way around that. The less a guy is on the field, the less chance he has to be a good football player unless of course you get rewarded at the end of the season for PPG. My league doesn't and I wouldn't play in a league that does.

Take a look at Javon Walker. After two weeks last season the guy had a PPG of around 11 in non PPR leagues. He was on pace for a top 10 season (176 points to finish 9th just ahead of Marshall). That PPG and a quarter wouldn't buy you a stamp last year.

Most leagues allow substitutions as far as I know. A player not playing isn't the same as getting you a zero because you can find a backup. Sometimes that backup is Ryan Grant or Earnest Graham or Pierre Thomas.

 

[Blackjacks]

No, no, no. Check out my earlier post. His per game averages in non-PPR leagues put him around RB12-14 for the last three years. Yeah; it's not LT, but it is definitely starting RB material.

Wow is this way off. He finished 12-14 in the last 3 years in nonPPR? He finished 23rd last year in non PPR and 14th the year before that. And he didn't finish in the 12-14 range three years ago either since he was still starting for USC and not New Orleans....

Agreed on the USC thing obviously, but Reggie wouldn't have been RB23 in PPG last year in most formats. Much closer to RB15-18 or so I would think. Granted, not a huge difference, but worth mentioning.

What is PPG? Do you mean in PPR? This is about non PPR leagues and the Jockstrap is way off in his post.Not sure what Reggie did in PPR leagues but I'm guessing quite well...

Points Per Game, which is what OP was talking about. Even in non-Points Per Reception leagues, Reggie would have been around the RB15-RB18 range based on his weekly average.

Oh, I get it. Sorry, just got back from vacation and am still recovering. PPG is a nice stat but misleading. He's getting me zero when he's out. Taking out the games he missed when calculating his worth is akin to saying, "yeah but if you take out that long run he would only have X.XX YPC for that game." But he had the long run. To selectively leave it out is misleading. To selectively leave out the games he misses is misleading in the opposite direction....He put up zeroes in those games.

One of the basic requirements for a good FFB player is to be on the field. No way around that. The less a guy is on the field, the less chance he has to be a good football player unless of course you get rewarded at the end of the season for PPG. My league doesn't and I wouldn't play in a league that does.

Take a look at Javon Walker. After two weeks last season the guy had a PPG of around 11 in non PPR leagues. He was on pace for a top 10 season (176 points to finish 9th just ahead of Marshall). That PPG and a quarter wouldn't buy you a stamp last year.

While I agree with alot of what you say I have getting blistered on these boards for predicitng an injury to LJ last year and not liking him this year due to an injury concern again. Everyone has said how I can't predict an injury so while looking at Bush this year, according to most people, you should look at his ppg last year and project that for a full season since you should always assume a whole year out of everyone. True ppg doesn't really matter that much for last year btu it does help an outlook for this year.

 

[FUBAR]

PPG is a nice stat but misleading. He's getting me zero when he's out. Taking out the games he missed when calculating his worth is akin to saying, "yeah but if you take out that long run he would only have X.XX YPC for that game." But he had the long run. To selectively leave it out is misleading. To selectively leave out the games he misses is misleading in the opposite direction....He put up zeroes in those games. One of the basic requirements for a good FFB player is to be on the field. No way around that. The less a guy is on the field, the less chance he has to be a good football player unless of course you get rewarded at the end of the season for PPG. My league doesn't and I wouldn't play in a league that does. Take a look at Javon Walker. After two weeks last season the guy had a PPG of around 11 in non PPR leagues. He was on pace for a top 10 season (176 points to finish 9th just ahead of Marshall). That PPG and a quarter wouldn't buy you a stamp last year.

Taking out worst / best plays is completely different from saying what he actually does when he's on the field.Unless you're into projecting injuries and you think players will miss the same amount of time the next year (they usually do not), PPG is a relevant stat. Obviously you need to look further when using PPG, just like you do when using total points. But it is a good stat to start with.

 

[switz]

While I agree with alot of what you say I have getting blistered on these boards for predicitng an injury to LJ last year and not liking him this year due to an injury concern again. Everyone has said how I can't predict an injury so while looking at Bush this year, according to most people, you should look at his ppg last year and project that for a full season since you should always assume a whole year out of everyone. True ppg doesn't really matter that much for last year btu it does help an outlook for this year.

Disagree... for some people, you should NEVER assume a full season. Do you assume Andre Johnson will play a full season?Reggie Bush is different, there's no reason to think he WON'T play a full season. But with some players, there's good reason to think they'll miss games - why - because they always do.

Bush didn't live up to the hype - but other "similar" RBs didn't explode on the scene in the NFL either.

Brian Westbrook took a few years to be more than a third down RB. It took Tiki a few years to be more than a kick returner. Both ended up being very good RBs.

Bush is going into this third season. I really think he's poised to break out.