Balco
Footballguy
I think Ridley and Moore would be an awesome duo in Chicago with Kmet the big target.
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2024 Free Agency Discussion (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
Agreed, but I stopped trying to make sense of the Saints decision making years ago. The break from Payton was the natural opportunity to hit the reset button and instead they doubled down...again. To predictably mediocre results.
That said, they're limited with what they can do this year. Manipulating June 1 contracts may not be an option because of what they have to do prior. There are two players on the whole roster in which they can clear > $3m by cutting them (Demario Davis and James Hurst) and their total cap savings is still just 7 figures. The only way they're going to clear $83m by mid March is converting existing base to bonuses/voids, which will tie those players to the roster for at minimum one more year. Their problems are who currently under contract do they want to commit to next year? and is there anyone they want to commit to beyond? Re the latter, they can't do much with Granderson or Ruiz since their base salaries are so low already, which really just leaves McCoy's ~$9m. Are there any other high earning players they still want on the team in '26? I don't see it, so then they're deciding who do they tie themselves to in '25. Which leads me to what I think the Saints should do...
Setup the reset for 2025. If you're going to bring Dennis Allen back for one more spin then you're going to give him the tools to try to compete. It's important to not over-commit though. If (when) things turn south it's paramount the groundwork is laid for a reset next year. A situation akin to what Holmes & Campbell walked into in Detroit. A bad cap situation year one, but workable year two as the foundation for the future is laid - both from personnel and cultural perspectives. I think that's best accomplished by leveraging void years more than bonuses and trying not to touch contracts set to expire in 2025 - i.e. Kamara. Currently, there is a ~$19m cap savings by cutting him this time next year. I expect that number to decrease to comply with this year's cap, but keep as much space as possible for next year to move on then.
Just my 2 cents. But this is the Saints we're talking about...
BassNBrew
Footballguy
After reading this I feel dumber....
I'm sure the new coach is going to looking at the receiving weapons for Young and a say let's add a 3rd RB and an expensive one at that.
zamboni
Footballguy
Not that I necessarily think that Ekeler would land in Carolina, but I don't think Ekeler is going to be very expensive given his age and his recent performance. The days of expensive RBs may be over for the foreseeable future.
markrc99
Footballguy
WR - There appears to be some possibility of Vegas moving Adams. Accordingly, the Jets were interested around the trade deadline. With new leadership & perhaps priorities, unloading Adams may be among them.
QB - Known to me, Kirk Cousins has a dead cap hit of $28.5M & I'm an novice on the subject.
Thus, my understanding is that they either take this hit now or guarantee Cousins another $45M per & push the pile back. I think what's key here is whether Minnesota believes they're still in some sort of championship window. Or, if they feel they're close, the means to get there? Worth noting, coming off his 2022 performance, Cousins presented the team with a discount offer then too. This situation doesn't have the same air of anticipation like that of Jared Goff in Detroit.
QB - Some of the poor decisions Mac Jones made are easily correctable. He's beleaguered & said to be down the road. Thing is, he has flashed potential & it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up in ... Minnesota!! Kevin O'Connell was drafted by the same regime, only to become a journeyman level QB. Jones' guaranteed cap hit is $2.8M. They need two QBs, Jones a capable bridge QB, but with the upside to turn the corner. Could be that the team that offers Cousins the most is New England.
QB - Jared Goff will get a 5-year deal. If memory serves, Lamar Jackson & the Ravens went back & forth before they finally gave him a 5-yr $260M deal. This is totally different, I think Goff gets close to $300M with close to $200M guaranteed.
QB - Known to me, Kirk Cousins has a dead cap hit of $28.5M & I'm an novice on the subject.
Thus, my understanding is that they either take this hit now or guarantee Cousins another $45M per & push the pile back. I think what's key here is whether Minnesota believes they're still in some sort of championship window. Or, if they feel they're close, the means to get there? Worth noting, coming off his 2022 performance, Cousins presented the team with a discount offer then too. This situation doesn't have the same air of anticipation like that of Jared Goff in Detroit.QB - Some of the poor decisions Mac Jones made are easily correctable. He's beleaguered & said to be down the road. Thing is, he has flashed potential & it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up in ... Minnesota!!
Kevin O'Connell was drafted by the same regime, only to become a journeyman level QB. Jones' guaranteed cap hit is $2.8M. They need two QBs, Jones a capable bridge QB, but with the upside to turn the corner. Could be that the team that offers Cousins the most is New England.QB - Jared Goff will get a 5-year deal. If memory serves, Lamar Jackson & the Ravens went back & forth before they finally gave him a 5-yr $260M deal. This is totally different, I think Goff gets close to $300M with close to $200M guaranteed.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Based on the vibe and talk from coach AP, this would be a big surprise to me. I am expecting the Raiders to be buyers not sellers of talent this offseason.
markrc99
Footballguy
What I read included that point as well, that the Raiders would be looking to add. But as it concerned Adams, addition by subtraction I suppose. That while he was still among the elite WRs & them needing a QB, moving him could go a long way in getting the player they wanted. Not saying that's what will happen, but as noted, the Jets offered or made inquiries regarding Adams, which were rejected. But shortly thereafter the GM & HC were canned. So addressing that aspect is what would be of interest. What do they do @QB? Now, if it's Kirk Cousins that's a different conversation.
Would agree that after both hiring AP who he went to bat for and then adding in Getsy who Adams knows and who he was heaping some praise on today killed off that thought to me.
That seems stout to me, like around $75M across the board higher then I'd expect on a 5 year deal.
Now I guess someone could make a point the Daniel Jones contract messed things up but I wonder if that will be seen as a one off in the way Watson's contract is often treated?
markrc99
Footballguy
Good points & you could be right. It's just that had they offered Kingsbury a 3-yr deal, he'd be their OC, right? The premise behind the likelihood of moving Adams was linked to what they do at QB. We know they intend to address the position. If they go big in FA, I think you're right, makes sense to keep Adams. But if they draft a guy, to me, they should trade him. I've since read that the Jets were one of a handful of teams expressing interest. If I were eyeing one of the top prospects & trading Adams would yield much of the additional draft capital I'd need to move up, I'd pull the trigger.
In regard to my estimate of Goff's contract, it's inline with what the Bengals gave Burrow & more than what the Ravens agreed to pay Jackson. Don't get me wrong, it's not only stout, it's ridiculous! It's also based on whether they sign him to a 5-yr deal. Goff finds himself in a smash spot. Doesn't matter what you or I think he's worth. Unless I'm mistaken, they believe he's among the best. Thus, definitely in the neighborhood of $280M, with $175-200M guaranteed.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think you're mistaken.
markrc99
Footballguy
Oh, am I? Apart from everything what exactly do I have wrong now!?
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, am I? Apart from everything what exactly do I have wrong now!?
They're not signing him to a Burrow or Jackson deal. Just not in the cards.
He's likely to make 40-50M for probably four years.
markrc99
Footballguy
Definitely long-term, but a floor of $40M per is way too low. According to NFL.com, when Goff signed his extension back in '19, his pay scale was commensurate with that of Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, so what? So the belief that player B isn't player A, thus, he isn't getting player A type money is faulty. More importantly, he's a better player now than he was then. Unlike the Ravens, the Lions organization is behind Goff 100%. They're coming off a historic season, they have the resources & the city loves this guy. They're in their window, Ben Johnson is returning, the GM in not so many words, has said they're not going to be big players in FA.
To me, Goff not getting Lamar Jackson type money just doesn't add up. Jackson's agent is his mum, negotiations broke down, he asked to be traded, they were eyeing Will Levis... yet, Jackson still ended up netting a 5-yr $260M deal. Here, my understanding is that the rapport between the team & Goff is totally different. I see him getting the going rate for a top-tier QB. That's the player they believe they have. So, $50M per is his floor & like the others a 5-yr deal.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Wut
markrc99
Footballguy
Obviously, not a consideration for you, but you quoted a response to someone suggesting that the reason Jared Goff wouldn't be paid market value is because... wait hun, it's "not in the cards". You're thorough, "not in the cards" is factually based while the nonsense you replied to... conjecture. Do I have that right?
massraider
Footballguy
Offseason Dates to Remember
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Goff has Detroit over the barrel here. He's going to get $40M AAV, minimum, probably closer to $50M AAV.
massraider
Footballguy
eighsse2
Footballguy
I feel like fantasy-wise that is about par for what one could have hoped. Maybe somewhete like Houston could have been a jackpot. Or somewhere like the Jets could have really put a damper on his value. But right here in Cincy, sure he plays second fiddle, but the passing game provides plenty.
massraider
Footballguy
If Higgins holds off on a long term deal for one year, playing under franchise tag, there's a bunch of guys due for contracts that could bump that number up. He might get 5 mill/year more.
zamboni
Footballguy
I'd be surprised if they let him go to free agency. Boyd is going to walk and I imagine they want to run it back with as many weapons as they can keep. There is certainly the issue of Chase's next contract, but they can kick the can down the road for 2024 and address both him and Higgins next year.
I actually don't think Houston would have been an upgrade. A spot like the Titans with Callahan or Carolina might have been ideal based on what would likely be heavier and more consistent volume but he entered last year as basically right around WR14 in ADP, a 2/3 turn pick, and not a whole lot about that situation changed so it's a strong situation for sure.
The only negative is I don't think they will reach a long term deal and what will likely ensue due to that. They will offer him a long term contract, but because of the commitment to Burrow and incoming commitment to Chase I think they'll low-ball him. Basically a repeat of last off-season. They'll of course tag him but barring a sign and trade I would not expect to see him for all or most of training camp. Not worried about him missing game checks and he'll obviously be motivated to have a good season but a guy with that many soft tissue injuries staring at likely missing a lot of camp is my biggest concern right now.
Saying all that I just had to pause what I was typing because I was OTC in round 5 and just drafted him. Big fan of players that are discounted coming off injury plauged seasons, and this is a BB league where I like him more as it's not as punishing when he early exits or lays an egg.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
A lot of teams have to deal with new coaches that will have different schemes. And that means different players to fit those schemes. It not from only changes at the HC level. Also at OC/DC.
For instance WAS is going to have new schemes on both sides. Quinn is going to need LBs to play nickel and cover 1. They were in crappily run big nickel and big dime and didn’t need LBs under Ron. The new OC is going to need WRs that get open faster. They only have 2 that don’t suck and need 4 for his system. And that doesn’t even get to the lack of talent on OL and DE where they will certainly make moves.
For instance WAS is going to have new schemes on both sides. Quinn is going to need LBs to play nickel and cover 1. They were in crappily run big nickel and big dime and didn’t need LBs under Ron. The new OC is going to need WRs that get open faster. They only have 2 that don’t suck and need 4 for his system. And that doesn’t even get to the lack of talent on OL and DE where they will certainly make moves.
markrc99
Footballguy
You're absolutely right & the reason I have a Daniel Jones type deal too low. Five years ago the Rams signed Goff to a deal that put him in the same tier as Aaron Rodgers. At $33.5M per it may be of interest to learn what that figure would equate to today? Back in '18 Matt Ryan was the 1st QB to be paid $30M per.... The league salary cap that year was $177.2M & is estimated to be around $250M for this year. The QB market has exploded! As it relates to Goff we've compiled the positives, one of which is that there are no negatives. Him signing something at $40M per equates to a significant pay cut. The likelihood of which is ZERO!
Part of the counterargument I've reconsidered is that they sign him to an extension. Meaning, they sign Goff but for '24 he's paid what he's currently under contract for. Except for the $5M prorated signing bonus, that gets pushed forward, so they actually free up a little space. I had them tearing up the last year of Goff's current contract, but I agree with the others, it makes more sense if they can use that window to extend & add other pieces. Since I now agree that this year's resources are not going to Goff, I no longer believe they'll be limited & focus primarily on offense. If this organization does well in FA & the draft, look out! Four years, $225M, $150M guaranteed.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Signing him to an extension makes sense for Detroit. You can structure it so the cap hit is low in the first couple of years. But anyone who doesn't think the AAV is going to be in the $50M range hasn't paid attention to the QB market.
Max Power
Footballguy
The big numbers always throw people off. It started making more sense to me when broken down by salary cap percentages a team will pay a QB.
The elite guys were making about 23% of their team's caps. The next round of all-pro level starters were in the 19% range. So I think its realistic to put Goff's number at 20% of the cap which comes out to 50mil considering the $250mil estimate. I think that is the starting point...
Depends when he signs but if it's this year I think he'll come in a little shy of $50M but likely in the $45m+ area so in that range.
Lamar and Hurts last year both barely broke $50m, coming in at $51m and $52M and a good chance both will see all of that money so no bogus stuff on the back end of the deal. Daniel Jones deal was $40M a year but if the Giants want to they can get out a year earlier and basically turn that into a $38M a year deal.
He's beating Jones, I don't see him equaling or beating Hurts and Lamar. Not this off-season but he might have a shot if he waits till next off-season and money keeps going up.
nittanylion
Footballguy
The WFT'skins, under the guidance of Peters and Quinn, do indeed have plenty of work to do, transitioning this Team back into being a consistent winner.
The current Roster is so bad. I'd personally much rather they build an infrastructure (inside-out) first. While there are some quality QB's in this Draft, there are quality QB's in every draft, and whether they take one this year or next, this Team has so many holes to fill, it's likely they will be drafting at/near the top of next years' draft, regardless.
I'm all about build a solid foundation (including the right kind of Free Agents) first, and bringing in a QB to develop that doesn't need to be rushed, and has a decent structure to work within.
I was quite high up the hierarchy of the David Carr Fan Club, if not the President, when he came into the League with the Texans, and I'm still scarred from how his career trajectory played out, primarily because he walked into an awful situation that got worse before it got better. Oh, what might have been.
Sure don't want to see that happen to the organization I've been a fan of for the better part of my 55 years, at its most critical juncture in the past 30.
markrc99
Footballguy
I see, and why do you think Goff isn't getting what Lamar or Hurts got? Because he's not that dynamic a player? Totally agree, but that's not always the determining factor. Matt Ryan was the 1st to get $30M, was he the best QB? When the Rams extended Goff his pay scale was then commensurate with that of Aaron Rodgers. Was he as good a player as Rodgers? As for Jones & according to cbssports.com, when he signed that 4yr-$160M deal, it made him the 10th highest paid QB. I've read it also included another $35M in performance-based incentives. What if he ends up with most of that $195M? According to the "cap experts" at atozsports.com, if Goff signs a 4yr- $190M deal ($47.5M per), it would be the 10th most in the NFL. The bolded phrase was hyperlinked & when I clicked it, I was redirected to the QB salary page.
Not saying that's factual, I don't know, but if $47.5M per would place him 10th, he's getting more than that! When asked & in context relating to resigning Goff, Brad Holmes said they never viewed him as a bridge QB. That leadership-wise & production-wise, he didn't know what Jared could have done more. A glowing review, whereas the Ravens didn't even want to pay Jackson. If you can show me that something less than $50M per will still place Goff in the top-5, then I would agree there's a chance.
He's simply not as good and the next man up does not always get paid more then the talent gap is that wide.
I'd have to break down your other numbers because contracts are not always what they seem and the APY is often inflated with money at the end the player may not see.
But using the full contracts per OTC would place you 6th at $47M a year and again if you really break all that down not all of those QB's above him may get all their money. Wilson being one of them.
Come on. That's a meaningless quote by Holmes said after the fact, what's he supposed to say.
Total BS and a conversation ender to me if we are just going to make up stuff.
Before factoring in money they may not see $50M a year would put him exactly 5th: https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback
markrc99
Footballguy
Totally agree, but not anything that got in his way before & I seriously don't believe this is the circumstance in which it does.
Well, I know that the Ravens wanted to pay Jackson less than what they did. There were offers of $40M per, then more than that. Negotiations broke down, he sought to be traded, while they were eyeing Will Levis. Then like 10 days after Hurts signed his deal, Lamar signed something similar. You'll recall, negotiations you can trace back to before the 2022 season. I can retract but my point, as I had implied elsewhere, was that the situation here with the Lions & Goff, the two sides seems much more agreeable. Or, you tell me, do you expect this to drag on for over a year, with Goff potentially asking to be traded at some point? I suppose, but to me that's just another big fat ZERO!
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I would say he'll be in the $45-55M range. I think he almost definitely gets more than the $46.1M AAV Kyler Murray got. So I'd say he'll be closer to the midpoint say, $49-50M AAV with the possibility of getting to $55M AAV.
Spin
Footballguy
A few years ago, my son and I ran into Henry walking into the Slider House in Nashville, and the guy is an absolute physical monster in person. I never really appreciated just how big he really was when he was on the field until I was standing next to him, even without pads on. I'm a little over 6'0, and he made me feel tiny. Super friendly guy and was willing to sign my son's hat (but unfortunately we didn't have a Sharpie) but did take a picture with him. Didn't even seem annoyed that my son was peppering him with questions while we walked into the restaurant. Even after a few years when I ask my son what he wants for dinner, he will still throw out, "Let's go to Slider House and see if we can run into Henry again" (we never have seen him there a second time, but there is a Sharpie in my front console in case we ever randomly run into a Titans or Preds player again).
Really hope he stays a Titan, but I'll be a fan of his wherever he ends up.
markrc99
Footballguy
Interesting comparable, got me looking & although not until the spring, Jordan Love is expected to cash in as well. Which may further your point as Spotrac estimates a 4-yr deal just under $45M per. @menobrown added that $47M per would place Goff 6th highest & one of the QB's in the top six is Russell Wilson. I assume Watson's another one. Goff was drafted like he's a top guy, he's already been paid like a top guy. He & the Lions are coming off what kind of a season? Oh, just historic is all. While Goff may not measure up to some of the top paid QBs, the one attribute he does have is availability. And in the NFL availability is king.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Not only that, but if the Lions decide that they don't want to pay Goff, what's their Plan B?
Boston
Footballguy
That is always the issue with these situations…what is your plan B…especially for a team like Detroit that is close…they did draft Hooker last year but he is still very much an unknown quantity…I really believe you are going to see teams start beefing up their QB depth going forward…between injuries and potential monster contracts they need to have more legit alternatives…the position is just too important.
-OZ-
Footballguy
None of these options are necessary now or probably for two more years since he's got a year left on his contract and can be tagged another year or even two.
Don't know projected tag amount for 2025 but for 2024 it's projected to be about $31m or $36m depending on what tag they use and probably won't jump a ton next year.
So the team has some leverage here, does not need to rush into anything, can easily control his rights for the next two seasons while they try and put a plan in place.
And that franchise tag can be used in negotiations as in if the team is willing to extend Goff for something around say $47m he'd be getting $11-16M more for the 2025 season then playing under the tag, in addition to the security of a multi year deal.
If anyone can access it, I can't, Dave Birkett of the Detriot Free Press wrote an article about his contract negotiations yesterday and I'd guess it's pretty informative.
-OZ-
Footballguy
in that case, it seems Hooker is the hopeful COA. Would they really tag Goff?I would think so if they don't want to lose him and don't like the viable replacement options.
Cap space is a major factor when using the tag since you got to take all of that hit in a year but even with a lot of high end young talent to resign they should be in a good spot in 2025 to use the tag if it comes to that, as of right now they have second most projected cap space that year of about $160m per OTC. And most of the extensions they do with players like ASB and Sewell the first year of those extensions, which is 2025, is usually on the lower side.
I do think they'd prefer to extend him then tag him, but it's an option where they don't have to feel backed into a corner and forced to meet any demands made on them.
Spotrac actually seems a tad low to me but in answer to your question no, Watson is not one of them, coming in just a little under at $46m.
The 5 QB's who make more then $47m APY are the 4 who signed extension this last off-season and Wilson, who will be cut before he really ever makes $47M a year but the other 4 will likely truly get all of that money.
For sure if you are trying to make a point that the next man up always gets more the fact that 4 highest paid QB's in the league all signed extensions this last season is a huge feather in your hat. But where I'm pushing back is that Daniel Jones was also one of the QB's who got extended last off-season and if the Giants want to move on after this season they will have ended up paying him $38M a year for two seasons on his extension. Which goes back to what I'm saying is that the next man up does not always get paid more when a signficant talent gap exists.
massraider
Footballguy
Just clicked on this, went to the RB position and was like "what the hell" when I saw how they were stacked. Then I went to see who wrote it and it was Randy Mueller and it all checks.
