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Yet you keep responding... Thanks for the tech tips, pops. 👍

I have to admit, with the way you entered the discussion I was expecting something a lot better. This is just more of the same. :kicksrock: I could similarly make a bullet list of "human" reasons it clearly made sense to go for it. I won't, because that would be a waste of time, which I...

It’s your silly theory, not mine. You’re gonna have to get out of the recliner and do your own legwork here.

Well that sounds extremely measurable. We have enormous sets of play-by-play and tracking data that tells us what happen during the game, so we should easily be able to see that when teams make good plays, they gain momentum, which presumably makes them more likely to be successful on...

Anything's measurable if it's well-defined. That's problem A - people use the term "momentum" to vaguely refer to certain circumstances whenever it's convenient for them. There's no definition of what momentum is. It's just a feeling people have sometimes that comes and then - more...

You're still doing the thing. The human factor could be overwhelmingly important. It could be also be the kind of meaningless apophenia humans are constantly falling for. If you think you can prove the former, just do it. Or don't, if you're worried it would be a waste of your time.

Never bet on my teams. If they win, I'll be happy anyway. I do often bet on their opponents in big spots, since then if they lose I soften the blow with a little payday. Had some money on Detroit last week, and got some down on KC as well. Purely emotional plays - if I lose I think of it...

Why are you asking me to agree before you demonstrate it? Just demonstrate it. You guys keep dancing around the thing. If you believe you can show that momentum is something that can be used to improve decision-making, then just show it instead of claiming that you could and asking me to...

Nope.

You’re the one who used “that’s why they get paid the big bucks” in support of your argument for the importance of all these mystical factors we can’t quantify. If you’re now acknowledging that isn’t actually a good argument, consider it noted.

Sure. He could also be half-human, half-horse. I can’t prove it, obviously, just trust me bro.

Hmm so then getting paid the big bucks as an NFL coach isn’t an indicator that their experience and knowledge of these intangibles is valuable? Hard to keep it straight when you guys keep changing your minds.

Cool then why do 75% of barely-numerate idiots on a magic football forum think they know better than Dan Campbell did in the moment? Can’t have it both ways.

I’m in the sportsbook trading industry. Can’t be much more specific than that without basically doxxing myself. But when you’re wrong about this kind of thing, you just sound stupid to a bunch of strangers on the internet. If I’m wrong about this kind of thing, we lose a bunch of money. :shrug:

Not sure what strawman bot you’re referring to but you accidentally quoted me. It’s not blackjack and yet professional sports bettors exist. Do you think they rely on data science, or poorly-defined hooey like “momentum?”

Played sports my whole life. My career is in sports data. If momentum was quantifiably predictive of success it would make me rich. I would happily be proven wrong if you or anyone else wants to do it. No one ever does… :shrug:

Here are a few examples: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB119093290865641816 https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2014/02/18/Momentum-in-sports-is-malarkey-researchers-say/9351392739888/ https://labs.la.utexas.edu/gilden/files/2016/04/Gilo.Vallone.Tversky.pdf Of course if it had any value at all...

Agreed. One should have a basic understanding of probability, data science, etc. to add anything to this discussion. Otherwise it gets muddied up by people making vague generalizations based on their gut, which is useless for all involved.

In other words, you can’t and never will. Boring. The Lions had the momentum for most of the game. Why didn’t they win?

No, by decades of people whose careers depend on being able to figure these things out. Try to keep up pops.