Search results

To address the (crying) elephant in the room... in case anyone had missed it, I have a fancy new staff account now. On the off chance that anyone was worried, I still plan on posting and discussing my rankings and remaining active on the message boards- the only thing that's changed is you...

Yeah, I phrased that poorly. I wasn't trying to indicate that I wouldn't apply any risk discount at all to Calvin and his ilk, I was trying to indicate that I would apply a substantially lower risk discount to Calvin Johnson than I would to, say, Mike Wallace (hence "pretty high degree of...

That's a reasonable hypothesis, but even by that hypothesis, there's no reason to expect Jackson/Gore to decline more than Sproles. Jackson/Gore get negative points for "wear related to workload" and positive points for "workload indicating general awesomeness", and the negative and positive...

Yikes, that is definitely a lot for the #1 in a weak draft class. Is that the best you can get for all those players? In a class like this, I'd be much, much happier selling all those pieces off individually for mid-1sts, instead (i.e. trading Mathews, Brady, and Davis in separate deals for...

You'd have to be pretty stacked for Andre Johnson to not be able to crack the starting lineup, but if you really were that stacked, I could easily see preferring "less" value in the form of assets that better fit your team. I think Drew Brees is awesome, but if I already had Rodgers, I'd be...

John Riggins and Mike Anderson were also backs that had great older seasons after light workloads early in their career. Still, I agree with you that "mileage" is an answer in search of a question. It's intuitively appealing, especially given the fact that overuse over a short time frame is...

Honestly, I'm probably underrating him a bit, but I have a bias against low-ceiling players (IMO, justifiably so). I think Hartline could put up a lot of 800 or 900 yard, 4 TD seasons for Miami, I just don't value those kinds of seasons at all. He has 6 career TDs in 4 years, which you would...

I like this guy. You should, too!

That's a big reason why I ran the experiment- I wanted to see how much of an edge all the extra grinding was really getting me. I think there are a couple of ways to interpret the results:1. Your intuitions are king, and all the grinding in the world won't really move you off them2. When you...

It's not that Floyd has no path to playing time, it's that he has no path to relevance. I like Bryce Brown and think he has plenty of path to relevance- RBs have high injury rates, Chip Kelly is going to have a lot of carries to spread around, and it's very rare for a team to pony up for a...

Well, again, I give 0% credence to workload and 100% credence to age when predicting declines, so I don't see what's so silly about the comparison. Either way, it seems to me (and correct me if I'm wrong) that you agree that Sproles will be out of the league before Stewart, but value him higher...

I was thinking about this some more last night, and I thought of a thought experiment. Is there anyone at all who won a championship in 2006, but would have traded it in a heartbeat for a championship in 2005, instead, since 2005 was more valuable? Is there anyone who, with the benefit of...

I agree with all of this, but the question remains... if not Rudolph, then who? Witten in PPR leagues, but he has only been a difference maker in one of the last four years in non-PPR, and he's on the wrong side of 30. Vernon is a couple years younger, but has made even less of a fantasy impact...

I agree that Rudolph is a thoroughly underwhelming prospect, but you have to rank someone there. He's young, has good pedigree, seems to be favored by his QB, and is a good red zone weapon. You have to at least respect the possibility of him being the real deal. Mostly, though, it's just a...

Some people have deeper leagues. When making my lists, I basically added names until I reached my pain point and cried uncle. It'd be hard to have intelligent opinions on any more players than this. It's hard enough to have halfway-intelligent opinions even on this many- when doing my speed...

Man, you and me both.

Not compared to Griffin, Luck, or Wilson... but compared to every rookie QB in history, Tannehill looks pretty solid. Tanny is 14th all-time in passing yards per game as a rookie (minimum 10 games played), ahead of Wilson and within 10 yards of Griffin. 6.8 YPA is a solid mark for a rookie, and...

Yeah, the jig is up, I did both sets of rankings using two radically different methodologies. I was hoping they'd turn out a bit more... different, but it is what it is. Basically, for one set I did my standard rankings thing- pore over every name, dig up 4 years worth of back stats, examine...

The same could easily be said about Frank Gore and Steven Jackson, who are both the same age as Sproles, who are both on teams that know how to use them and who are both guaranteed to get their touches this season (or as guaranteed as a 30-year-old back can possibly be), and who both have a...

I was thinking about what a guy's rankings tell you about his philosophy, and it inspired me to try a rather unique exercise. I approached two people with a relatively similar dynasty outlook, gave them a list of names, and asked them to each provide a set of rankings of those names...