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Matchups: Train Rolls to Tampa
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PRINTER FRIENDLY Matchups Archives
After two games, it's easier to pick up on trends, weaknesses, and strengths because most teams have faced at least one quality opponent. The Broncos' defense isn't going to finish No. 2 in the league, but we know Mike Nolan is running a competitive unit. Having shut down Frank Gore and Maurice Jones-Drew, Arizona's run defense appears to be for real. You don't need to be a special back to excel as the "lead" runner in New Orleans' offense. Michael Clayton, Mario Manningham, and probably everyone else can roast Dallas' right cornerback combo of Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins.
We'll get better at matchup assessment each week, while also keeping close tabs on injury situations. But we can apply the emerging realities from Weeks 1 and 2 to break down game-by-game outlooks for Week 3 with solid confidence. Let's have at it.
1:00PM ET Games
Kansas City @ Philadelphia
Kevin Kolb's Week 2 line (391 yards, two TDs) looks swell on paper, but much of it came in garbage time of a loss to New Orleans, and he was erratic with three INTs. If there's one thing the Chiefs do well it's cover receivers, especially with top CB Brandon Flowers healthy again...Coordinator Clancy Pendergast preaches aggressive, press-man coverage that will entail frequent "jamming" of Kevin Curtis and DeSean Jackson. The wideouts have enough speed to blow by Flowers and LCB Brandon Carr, but Kolb doesn't have the arm to go deep. Brent Celek remains the Eagles' best bet for receptions...Not helping Kolb's cause is Michael Vick's activity. Vick isn't a fantasy option, but will steal 8-15 valuable snaps.
Brian Westbrook is a full-blown game-time decision, and it's not hard to imagine the Birds holding him out. Westbrook's injury is to the same ankle he had surgically repaired this summer and Philadelphia goes on a bye in Week 4, potentially giving the 30-year-old three weeks of rest. The Eagles can win starting LeSean McCoy, especially with Chiefs top inside 'backer Derrick Johnson (groin) out.
Expect Philly to be leading the NFL in sacks by 4ET Sunday. The Birds already have seven (Cincinnati is first with nine), despite facing Drew Brees' amazingly quick release in Week 2, and the Chiefs' line is a swinging gate. Even LT Branden Albert isn't playing well. Matt Cassel's brutal first-half schedule continues...Dwayne Bowe, though, remains an every-week starter. He hasn't had a truly big game yet, but has converted on nine of his ten targets (efficiency Todd Haley is sure to appreciate) and made a Larry Fitzgerald-esque diving touchdown grab last Sunday. Fitz, of course, was Haley's pupil a year ago.
Larry Johnson exhibited more quickness than expected last week against Oakland, but managed just 3.2 YPC on 24 carries thanks to the Chiefs' awful front five. L.J. also whiffed on blocks and isn't worth toying with Sunday in Philadelphia...K.C. is using a rotation opposite Bowe. In Week 1, Mark Bradley (4-73) was the guy. Last week, it was street free agent Bobby Wade (6-72). Avoid the situation entirely.
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Perhaps they'll fix it eventually, but Baltimore's pass defense is struggling mightily. With speedy but slight Domonique Foxworth (5'11/180) and Fabian Washington (5'11/180) on the corners, big receivers Vincent Jackson (6-141-1), Dwayne Bowe (4-40-1), Antonio Gates (5-78), and Mark Bradley (4-73) have all produced against the Ravens. After a slow opener, Braylon Edwards (6'3/215) is coming off a 92-yard game against a strong Broncos secondary. He can build on that this week.
The Browns have no chance to run on Baltimore, so expect another pass-attempts (and sacks) binge for Brady Quinn. The targets will be there for Edwards. The Joshua Cribbs-Mohamed Massaquoi-Mike Furrey rotation opposite him isn't working...After a shocking 104-yard Week 1 from Jamal Lewis, he thankfully proved he was what we thought he was (done) last Sunday against the Broncos. This should be now-healthy rookie James Davis' backfield in due time, with some Jerome Harrison sprinkled in.
It may sound stupid, but I wasn't sold on Joe Flacco after his rookie season. Coordinator Cam Cameron protected him all year with low-risk throws outside the numbers and a three-headed run game. After two weeks, Flacco leads the AFC with five touchdown passes, has been much more aggressive over the middle, and is completing a Joe Cool-62.3% of his throws. He's on pace for 552 attempts after just 428 as a rookie. Flacco is bordering on fantasy-starter status.
Ray Rice is still the Ravens' starter, but Cameron is riding the hot hand week by week. Willis McGahee, the club's designated goal-line back, finished Week 2 with 17 touches to Rice's 13. Both are worth using against a Browns defense that has served up 5.6 YPC (fifth worst in the league) and an NFL-most five rushing TDs, but McGahee is obviously a better bet for scores. Rice should still lead the way in yardage against a big, slow, and old Cleveland front seven.
NY Giants @ Tampa Bay
Brandon Jacobs, sitting on just 121 yards through two weeks, is poised to bust out against a Bucs defense yielding the NFL's fourth-most rushing yards (336) and fourth-highest YPC against (5.7). Without run-stopping FS Jermaine Phillips (6'2/230), Tampa turns to lanky Will Allen (6'1/200) opposite Sabby Piscitelli. A poor tackler, Allen won't stop the 260-pound Train at the second level. A run-heavy game plan is likely from playcaller Kevin Gilbride despite Eli Manning's improved accuracy (67.2 completion rate for the career 56.2-percent passer).
Mario Manningham was a hot waiver add after last week's 10-catch, 150-yard effort, but isn't facing Orlando Scandrick anymore. Look for Mario to line up opposite Bucs RCB Ronde Barber often. Barber and LCB Aqib Talib are too physical to continue to let Manningham generate sizable post-catch gains. Steve Smith will also see a lot of Barber, who moves to the slot on third downs...Kevin Boss isn't involved enough in the passing game to capitalize on the Bucs' safety woes as Jason Witten (5-71) and Derek Schouman (6-62) have. Almost strictly a blocker, Boss has just five targets through two games.
CB Aaron Ross (leg) will miss a third straight game, but it hasn't hurt New York's smothering pass defense. With Corey Webster shadowing No. 1 wideouts (he's held Roy Williams and Santana Moss to a combined 24 yards on three grabs) and Terrell Thomas proving an adequate fill in for Ross, the Giants rank fourth against the pass. New York can survive SS Kenny Phillips' loss with 47-career game starter C.C. Brown joining the ones. Byron Leftwich won't stay hot, and Michael Clayton is a candidate to be shut out.
The Giants have allowed only two passing scores this year, and they're both to tight ends (Chris Cooley, Jason Witten). With Antonio Bryant (knee) and Maurice Stovall (knee) almost certainly out, Kellen Winslow will be a target monster. He's already the Bucs' clear No. 1 option with a 12-120-2 line through two weeks...Carnell Williams' 97-yard Week 1 may turn out to be a fluke. He was bottled up for nine yards on seven carries by Buffalo's wish-washy run defense last Sunday. Other than Winslow, avoid the Bucs' skill players.
Atlanta @ New England
The Pats' pass-nutty ways (first in attempts) will keep Tom Brady's value afloat as he overcomes mechanical issues coming off knee surgery. He's the best buy-low QB in the league and shouldn't have trouble tossing multiple TDs versus an Atlanta secondary allowing a 64.8 completion rate with seven plays of 20+ yards against...Julian Edelman made a name for himself in Week 2, but was prone to drops and will immediately become a non-factor with the expected return of Wes Welker (knee). Dolphins slot guy Davone Bess dropped seven grabs on the Falcons two weeks ago. Welker is a must-start if he's active.
Randy Moss will see double teams all season, but Welker's return will also help him tremendously. The Mossman had 12 catches in the game Welker played this year; to two in the contest Welker missed...New England's backfield remains a fantasy wasteland. The touches-per-back breakdown: committee members Fred Taylor (17) and Laurence Maroney (18); third-down back Kevin Faulk (13); fullback Sammy Morris (3).
Tony Gonzalez is the No. 2 fantasy tight end so far, but the genius schemes of Bill Belichick may quiet the 33-year-old. Through two games, the Pats have allowed a weekly average of four catches for 38 yards to tight ends. Gonzo is better than any TE New England has faced (including Dustin Keller), but no coach touches Belichick when it comes to stopping an opponent's hottest threat.
If the Pats game plan for Gonzalez as we suspect, Roddy White may see single coverage most of the day. SS Brandon Meriweather would be assigned to Gonzo, decreasing "safety help" over the top. White's been relatively quiet with 95 yards and a TD on 11 catches (8.6 yards per reception for the career 15.1 YPC wideout), but an explosion is imminent...New England's new 4-3 scheme is aimed more at getting pressure on the QB than stopping the run. The Bills (146 total yards, TD) and Jets (129 yards) have capitalized. Michael Turner is on tap.
Tennessee @ NY Jets
Titans FS Michael Griffin is a Pro Bowler, but he's trying to do too much with Tennessee getting manhandled by the pass. In Week 2, Griffin blew his assignment on Andre Johnson's second-quarter 72-yard touchdown, leaving Johnson one-on-one with 35-year-old LCB Nick Harper. With RCB Cortland Finnegan also playing overaggressive, Mark Sanchez could have a third straight solid game. Keep Jerricho Cotchery and tight end slot receiver Dustin Keller going...The Titans' run defense has been the league's stingiest through two weeks, surrendering a league-low 1.9 yards per carry and no rushing touchdowns. That's bad news for Thomas Jones, who was outplayed (53 yards, 15 touches) by Leon Washington (16-76) in Week 2. The Jets, by the way, are employing a true 50:50 rotation. Rookie Shonn Greene remains without a game-day role.
The Jets have used lockdown CB Darrelle Revis to shadow No. 1 receivers, but it's unclear if he'll keep it up against Justin Gage. Nate Washington was more productive last week, and usually lines up on the offensive right (Revis' side). It's best to avoid the situation entirely. New York hasn't given up a passing touchdown yet and is holding opponents to an NFL-low 4.8 yards per attempt.
As NBC's Peter King pointed out on Twitter this week, the deciding factor in this game may be Chris Johnson's touches total. Rex Ryan's club has been ridiculously stingy in all facets, but hasn't faced a mauling offensive line like Tennessee's yet. Obviously, Johnson is the Titans' best bet for a big play, so OC Mike Heimerdinger will likely get him the ball early and often. Something like 30 touches is within reach...Johnson gets all the work in crucial situations and this game figures to be a low-scoring war of attrition. Don't expect anything from LenDale White.
Green Bay @ St. Louis
Left tackle Chad Clifton's high ankle sprain is a concern for Aaron Rodgers, but not on Sunday. St. Louis' RE rotation of James Hall and Chris Long has just one sack so far. Rodgers will take hits, but panicking should cease until Jared Allen attacks his blind side in Week 4...Rams top CB Ronald Bartell held T.J. Houshmandzadeh to 46 yards in Week 1 and Malcolm Kelly to 41 yards last Sunday. Don't chase the Week 2 line of 6-99-1 for Donald Driver, who should see Bartell in primary coverage.
On the other side, Greg Jennings is very likely to rebound from his catch-less Week 2. He faced emerging shutdown CB Leon Hall last week, but the drop-off is severe to likely Week 3 man-on Jonathan Wade. Recall that ever-mediocre Nate Burleson burned Wade for most of his 74 yards on seven grabs with a TD in Week 1...Jermichael Finley showed signs of life last Sunday, improving to 56 yards after his six-yard opener. He's still only a desperation fantasy play, but could rack up a few big gains against the St. Louis safeties, who relentlessly bite on play-action. TEs John Carlson and Chris Cooley have combined for 13-178-2 against them so far.
Laurent Robinson has proved he's for real against Skins RCB DeAngelo Hall and Seattle RCB Ken Lucas. It's hard to recommend any passing-game player against Green Bay in an offense like St. Louis', but RCB Al Harris, 34, showed some age against Chad Ochocinco last week, and Robinson is a poor man's version. He's merely a WR3, but Robinson can reaffirm his status as the Rams' No. 1 receiver.
With just 48 yards through two games, Donnie Avery is on the verge of droppable in 10-team settings. Blanketed for two yards on one grab in Week 2, he'll likely be shut down again by Charles Woodson...Good ol' Cedric Benson showed there was some leak to the Pack's new 3-4 by raining down 141 yards on the unit last week. Ideally, the Rams will get Steven Jackson a similar number of touches (29). It's the only way St. Louis will stay in this game.
San Francisco @ Minnesota
Enough has been said of Adrian Peterson's rookie-year meeting with San Francisco (three yards on 14 carries). The Niners are playing the run well, but Peterson is more likely to turn their 2.7 YPC against on its head than get shut down again. He's gunning for Greg Manusky's unit...Brett Favre is apparently fun to bash, but he's been near perfect through two games (league-high 77.1% completions, 0 INTs) and showed improved rapport with Bernard Berrian last game, as the duo hooked up six times. No Vikings receiver (Percy Harvin included) is worth more than WR3 consideration, but the passing offense should start clicking deep down the field as the season moves forward...Visanthe Shiancoe, however, needs to be dropped or benched all year. Harvin is vulturing Shiancoe's targets (three so far), and the rookie slot man will get better by the week.
Frank Gore's Week 2 ankle injury was more of a tweak than a sprain. He'll start at the Vikings, whose run defense has been surprisingly mediocre (15th overall with 4.0 YPC allowed). That will change, but Gore is likely to get 25 touches and can't possibly be benched...Vernon Davis is the only 49ers pass catcher we'd consider in this one. The Vikes served up 40 yards on four grabs to Brandon Pettigrew last week (his first NFL production) and 60 on four receptions with a score to Robert Royal in Week 1...Josh Morgan is blocking his tail off, but must show something before he sees the light of day in fantasy lineups. Shaun Hill didn't target him once last week. Isaac Bruce may get the "shadow" treatment of Vikings Pro Bowl CB Antoine Winfield on Sunday.
Jacksonville @ Houston
Not that Matt Schaub needs it coming off a four-TD, 357-yard breakthrough, but the Jacksonville secondary is a proven cure for struggling pass attacks (see Kurt Warner). Keep that in mind for future matchup purposes, and get Schaub and your Texans pass catchers going. Kevin Walter missed the first two weeks with lingering hamstring woes, but is a sneaky play if he's active. The Jags are getting no pass rush (one sack on the year), and RCB Derek Cox is now dealing with a concussion.
Jacksonville's new 3-4 defense looked good in Week 1, but Tim Hightower and Chris Wells exposed the Reggie Hayward-less front seven for 116 yards and a score on 22 carries (5.3 YPC) last Sunday. Despite being arguably the league's worst starting tailback through two weeks (26 carries, 51 yards, three fumbles), don't bench Steve Slaton. The Jags will have to stay in a dime defense to stop Houston's red-hot passing game, creating lanes for the Texans' runner.
Mario Manningham was a hotter waiver pickup, but look for Mike Sims-Walker to pay more immediate dividends (and not to toot my own horn, but this is coming from a predictor of Mario's breakout game). In a matchup of arguably the AFC's two worst secondaries, the game sets up well for Jacksonville's only big-play wide receiver. Sims-Walker would benefit if Houston jumps out to an early lead. In that scenario, the Jags will have to throw to catch up. It's exactly how he managed 106 yards and a TD last week.
Expect a high-scoring affair, with Maurice Jones-Drew the best bet to score on either side. MoJo's Week 2 effort vs. Arizona (83 yards, 17 touches, no TDs) was fairly disappointing, but the Cards rank fifth in the league in run defense. Houston is in dead last and has already surrendered four rushing touchdowns...David Garrard is a legit QB1 play in this matchup, but Torry Holt is only a WR3. Holt continues to exhibit poor speed and is already complaining about Dirk Koetter's play calls.
Washington @ Detroit
Santana Moss' slow start has owners worried, but his Week 3 matchup couldn't be better. The Lions' pass defense has somehow been worse than their run defense in the first two games. Moss, Washington's weak-side wideout, will match up frequently with Detroit weak-side corner Anthony Henry on Sunday. Henry turns 33 later this year and should be playing safety at this stage of his career due to reduced speed. Moss, a burner, will eat him alive down the left sideline...Clinton Portis was supposed to struggle in Week 1 against the Giants, but his Week 2 performance against St. Louis left too much to be desired. Seeing 19 carries, Portis' long run went for 12 yards and he rarely catches passes since losing the Skins' third-down job to Ladell Betts. Worse, top run-blocking lineman Randy Thomas is done for the year with a torn triceps. Portis owners won't get much for him now, but can only hope he feasts on Detroit. Then it's definitely time to sell high.
Matthew Stafford throws plenty of picks, but continues to target the heck out of Calvin Johnson. C.J. is seventh in the league with 20 passes thrown his way, and the connections are increasing. Johnson saw seven touches in Week 2, gaining 76 yards with a receiving score and would've had 37 more had a quick-screen hookup not been called back due to penalty. The duo will improve by the week...Kevin Smith churned out 93 hard-earned yards last week versus Minnesota. Matchups against Albert Haynesworth-led defenses are usually undesirable, but Steven Jackson exposed the Skins for 104 yards on 17 carries (6.1 YPC) in Week 2 and Smith's 27 touch-per-week average makes him un-benchable no matter the circumstance...Bryant Johnson continues to see single coverage opposite Calvin, but hasn't taken advantage. He posted a goose egg in Week 2.
4:05PM ET Games
Chicago @ Seattle
With Sean Locklear (high ankle sprain) ruled out and usual LT Walter Jones' (knee, back, age) status iffy after no preseason snaps, Seattle is certain to struggle in pass protection against Rod Marinelli's coached-up defensive line. RE Alex Brown and LE Adewale Ogunleye already have two sacks apiece. Despite Jim Mora's proclamations, it would make no sense for the Seahawks to use Matt Hasselbeck (broken rib). Seneca Wallace will start, the 'Hawks will struggle to move the ball, and Chicago's defense will have a big day.
Wallace, a check-down machine, hurts the fantasy value of virtually every skill player around him. John Carlson will likely be asked to "help" Jones and RT Ray Willis block for most of the game, while supposed deep threat Nate Burleson is a candidate to be shut out. Justin Forsett, who's moved ahead of Edgerrin James on the depth chart, could rack up 7-9 receptions. He's arguably a better fit for the offense than Julius Jones.
Expect a big rebound for Matt Forte. Seattle is already down WLB LeRoy Hill (groin surgery), while both MLB Lofa Tatupu (hamstring) and DT Brandon Mebane (calf) are questionable at best. Without those players in Week 2, Frank Gore exploded on the 'Hawks for an NFC Player of the Week Award-winning 246-yard, two-score game. Hopefully you've already bought Forte "low"...After a four-pick opener, Jay Cutler showed remarkable resiliency yet again with 236 yards and two TDs in a difficult matchup with Pittsburgh. Cutler is making do with fifth-round rookie Johnny Knox as his go-to receiver while opponents have double teamed TE Greg Olsen. Cutler won't have to work as hard this week. Seattle's secondary remains in shambles after losing LCB Josh Wilson indefinitely to a high ankle sprain. Get Cutler, Olsen, Devin Hester, and Knox in your lineup.
New Orleans @ Buffalo
It's a tough pill for Pierre Thomas drafters to swallow, but we used our early-round pick on a replaceable talent. Because Thomas isn't a "special" runner, he had to show quick-recover ability after spraining his MCL over one month ago. But Thomas didn't, lost his job to Mike Bell, and now may be passed by Lynell Hamilton. This week's situation is definitely one to avoid for Thomas owners, while Hamilton can be used as a flex in TD-heavy formats. He's likely to receive goal-line carries while the Saints wait for Thomas and Bell's knees to heal. A point to keep in mind: it's not difficult for replacement-level backs to succeed as inside runners in the Saints' offense because they see constant six-man fronts. Aaron Stecker, Bell, and a post-multiple knee surgeries Deuce McAllister have proven that.
**UPDATE:** Check the Rotoworld News Page for the latest on the Bell/Thomas/Hamilton situation.
You know the drill with red-hot Drew Brees and clear-cut WR1 Marques Colston...Jeremy Shockey is also a top-five TE1 against a Bills defense that can't defend the middle of the field with Bryan Scott at strong safety. Ben Watson and Kellen Winslow have combined for 13 catches, 167 yards, and three TDs against Buffalo in the last two games.
Fred Jackson, welcome to the biggest game of your life. It's his last shot to show Bills playcaller Alex Van Pelt that he deserves to be heavily involved, and perhaps even remain a starter, before Marshawn Lynch's Week 4 return. The game also shapes up well for Jackson's versatile skill set. Currently second in the league in yards from scrimmage, F-Jax will continue to rack up catches as Buffalo tries to keep up with the NFL's by-far No. 1 offense. He's a borderline RB1 play in PPR leagues.
By mere virtue of situation, the Saints have given up the fifth-most passing yards in the league. It's because teams have to throw against them to stay in games. They've allowed just two passing TDs, an NFC-low 52.8 completion rate, and picked off an NFL-high six passes. This is a good defense, but Lee Evans, Terrell Owens, and Trent Edwards (in two-QB leagues) are all must-starts. Buffalo is going to throw 36-40 times, much to conservative head coach **** Jauron's chagrin.
4:15PM ET Games
Miami @ San Diego
Miami is getting gashed by tight ends. With FS Gibril Wilson consistently a step late in coverage and SS Yeremiah Bell better suited to play "in the box," Tony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark dropped a mind-boggling 256 yards (21.3 YPC) and two TDs on the Fins in Weeks 1-2. Antonio Gates has a steady 10 grabs for 161 yards, but should score his first TD of the season in San Diego's new pass-first offense.
Expect the throwing parade to continue for Philip Rivers, as the Bolts will likely struggle on the ground again. Miami remains stout against the run and San Diego's team average of 3.0 YPC is third worst in the NFL. Declining LaDainian Tomlinson (ankle) is extremely doubtful and won't save this unit when he returns after it lost C Nick Hardwick until December...Vincent Jackson, on an 88-1,576-16 pace, is a true WR1. He'll likely see a lot of rookie Sean Smith in coverage Sunday. Smith will get safety help, but we've already covered that problem.
It's time for the Fins to quit the Ricky Williams-Ronnie Brown timeshare despite Ricky's solid start. A rhythm back, Brown is at his best when getting the ball consistently. After a 24-carry, 136-yard, two-score Week 2, expect Brown's role to increase against a Chargers defense that can't hope to stop the run with NT Jamal Williams done for '09 and DE Travis Johnson (groin) out. Ravens RBs burned the Bolts for 199 yards and two TDs last week.
Dolphins LT Jake Long yielded another sack to Dwight Freeney in Week 2, giving the 2008 No. 1 pick three sacks allowed on the year. Shawne Merriman (six tackles, no sacks) hasn't made an impact yet, so this is a litmus test for the speed rusher...TE Anthony Fasano's matchup is good on paper, but he risks losing snaps after following his two-fumble Week 1 with a game-costing end-zone drop on Monday night...Ted Ginn Jr. was another Dolphins pass "catcher" dropping balls against the Colts, but his deep speed will give Chargers RCB Antoine Cason fits. Stay away from the receiver rotation opposite Ginn.
Denver @ Oakland
JaMarcus Russell led the game-winning drive last week against K.C., but prior to that I had not witnessed poorer QB play in four years at Rotoworld (that includes Chris Weinke). Russell is the game's most inaccurate passer (his completion rate is a league-worst 35.2; next closest is Marc Bulger's 50.0), telegraphs most of his throws, and miscommunications with his wide receivers are startlingly common. It's hard to have much hope, for Russell or Oakland's wideouts...The Raiders are at their best when Zach Miller is heavily involved. They won't win another game in which Miller is held out of the box score.
Darren McFadden isn't a tackle breaker, but we have some good news. Michael Bush is not the designated red-zone back, as it appeared in Week 1. McFadden scored from five yards out against the Chiefs. Denver's defense is playing well (No. 2 in the league), but McFadden should resume getting 18-22 touches and is an every-week play.
For reasons stated above, seriously consider Mike Nolan's defense as a fill-in fantasy start on Sunday...Broncos coach Josh McDaniels stresses fundamentals, but didn't hold Knowshon Moreno's sack-causing blown blitz pickup from Week 1 against him last Sunday. Moreno was still out-produced by Correll Buckhalter, but now has more touches (27:20) than Denver's starter on the year. It's time to begin calling Moreno an every-week RB2 in PPR leagues, although he isn't going to score touchdowns. Buckhalter and Peyton Hills are getting those opportunities for now...Sit every member of Denver's passing game against Oakland's swarming secondary. The Broncos are using a strict four-receiver rotation of Brandon Stokley, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal. Royal, by the way, is likely to see the most of Nnamdi Asomugha.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Santonio Holmes is Pittsburgh's new No. 1 receiver, but it's fair to wonder if he's battling a wrist injury. He had three drops last week, including a would-be TD, and showed up Tuesday with a wrap on the area. Steelers OC Bruce Arians is going pass-heavy and we can't imagine sitting Holmes, but it's best to limit expectations in this one. Bengals RCB Leon Hall, who Holmes will go mostly against, held Greg Jennings catch-less in Week 2 after smothering Eddie Royal (2-18) in the opener.
Ben Roethlisberger is the top beneficiary of Pittsburgh's new-look attack. Suddenly a gunslinger, Big Ben is fourth in the NFL in pass attempts and has connected on 71.8% of them. He's only got two touchdowns, but the scores and yardage will catch up soon...40th in the league in rushing and sporting a dreadful 2.4 YPC average, Willie Parker must be on fantasy benches until he shows something. He may begin losing major work to Rashard Mendenhall, and the vastly-improved Cincinnati defense hasn't allowed a rusher to top 46 yards in a game yet.
It's hard to imagine the Steelers' pass defense finishing in the 'teens as they rank now, but the fact that no one runs on them (3.1 YPC, 0 TDs against) means opponents must resort to passing to get first downs. Carson Palmer may throw a few picks Sunday, but is a safe bet for 1-2 TDs and 250 passing yards...Note that Chad Ochocinco's biggest game in a lost 2008 came against Steelers CB Ike Taylor (8-52-1). An every-week starter again, Chad is showing game-breaking speed and is on pace for 1,440 receiving yards so far. Not even Al Harris and Charles Woodson could hold him under 90 yards in Week 2...The receiver situation opposite Ocho, however, is to be avoided. Opening-day hero Andre Caldwell regressed to the mean with 16 yards on two catches last week, while Laveranues Coles and Chris Henry have five catches combined in '09. It's a committee.
Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis @ Arizona
Arizona's tightened-up 3-4 defense under new coordinator Bill Davis is hitting on all cylinders. In Week 1, the Cards held Frank Gore to 30 yards on 22 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew managed 66 rushing yards on Davis' unit last game. It doesn't bode well for the Colts' upside-crushing series-by-series rotation of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown...Don't sweat Reggie Wayne's slow second game (3-37). The Colts had the ball for only 15 minutes and will usually win time of possession battles. They just didn't get in enough plays against Miami. Wayne will come around in what sets up as a high-scoring affair.
Dallas Clark is the biggest beneficiary of Anthony Gonzalez's knee injury, as expected. He's the top fantasy tight end after two weeks and is faster than ever...Pierre Garcon started in place of Gonzo last week, but saw just four targets (turning one into the game-winning touchdown), while slot guy Austin Collie had the same. The numbers will increase going forward, but we need to see more before using either. Garcon is the best play if you're desperate.
Chris Wells is the finest pure runner in Arizona, but two Week 2 fumbles killed his playing time. Still, he's worth consideration as a FLEX against a Colts defense allowing 4.7 YPC with three rushing scores against...Of course, Tim Hightower remains a better bet for weekly touches (he has 38 to Beanie's 14). An every-week fantasy starter until proven otherwise, Hightower stands to benefit from the likely absences of Colts MLB Gary Brackett (knee), WLB Clint Session (ankle), and SS Bob Sanders (knee). RE Dwight Freeney (back) is also less than 100 percent.
Kurt Warner got back into the groove against the Jags, but is a low-end QB1 in this one. He is also dealing with continued pain from a Week 1 shoulder stinger. Indianapolis is first in the league against the pass, likely gets back impressive rookie CB Jerraud Powers (groin), and hasn't given up a passing score through two games. A run-heavy/short-passing attack is likely. That's very good news for now-healthy possession monster Anquan Boldin.
Monday Night Football
Carolina @ Dallas
Steve Smith, the NFL's leader in targets, draws a highly favorable matchup against a Cowboys secondary that's serving up big passing plays left and right. Only Baltimore and Tennessee have given up more 20+ yard connections. Dallas surprisingly isn't using LCB Terence Newman as a "shadow" corner, so Smith will see the Orlando Scandrick-Mike Jenkins combo on Monday night. The same rotation was victimized for Mario Manningham's coming-out party, and a week earlier, Michael Clayton's best game since 2004.
It's impossible to consider sitting DeAngelo Williams, but similarly obvious that Jonathan Stewart severely curtails D-Willy's fantasy ceiling. Through two games, Williams has 37 touches to Stewart's 25, and they will likely continue to inch closer together as the Carolina coaching staff becomes more satisfied with the health of Stewart's heel. As Brad Morgan also pointed out in his magnificent Red Zone Report, there's very little separation in their battle for goal-line duties.
The Panthers' pass defense should be a strength, but Matt Ryan worked it for three scores and 220 yards while completing 77.8% of his throws last Sunday. Attempting to compensate for a porous front seven, Carolina coordinator Ron Meeks is playing his safeties closer in. That bodes well for tight ends (see Tony Gonzalez's 7-71-1) and hasn't fixed Carolina's run defense (Michael Turner still had 28-105-1)...Roy Williams went against a true shutdown corner (Corey Webster) last week, notching just one catch for 18 yards. This matchup is easier against RCB Richard Marshall, but Williams' low target total (11 in '09; four last week) is the biggest concern. He's only a WR3.
Sit Patrick Crayton, but expect a decent rebound for Tony Romo and a big one for Jason Witten...It's tough to wait on Marion Barber (strained quadriceps) in a Monday night game, but do it if you own Tashard Choice or Felix Jones. Should MB3 not play, Jones would be the favorite for touches and red-zone work. Felix got the goal-line carry in Week 2 immediately after Barber's injury.
Thanks for posting, great write-up. Especially loved the coverage matchup analysis.
