Exploit/Avoid - Point Spreads and when to pull the trigger (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Long overdue thread about a trend I see and what to do with good information on Sunday Mornings...

-We find out shortly before kickoff that Deshaun Watson is a no go and the Browns are already dealing with their star RB on the shelf for the season, they play the Ravens
The line was about Cleveland -3 for much of the week, right at about kick off the line moved slightly in favor of Baltimore, key word slightly. And some places they didn't change the line all that much,
Incredible Opportunity!

It did not take a rocket scientist to figure out Cleveland was in big trouble yesterday despite a stiff defense
Dorian Thompson Robinson, 5th Rd rookie, a guy I'm not very familiar with but likely didn't get a lot of work with Watson there, you could see the score coming

28-3 and a pretty boring game to watch unless you had the Ravens and this wager/gamble did not appear until very late on Sunday
Those are the Sundays I wish I lived in Vegas and could walk straight up to the Sports books.
I can still wager online but would prefer it above board here in Florida, I hear the Seminoles/Hard Rock will have it soon...but not soon enough!

It actually happened twice this past weekend. Vegas has to sit Jimmy G and I felt the Chargers were a good bet even at -6.5, they were up 24-7 but that was a much closer game in the end
so my instincts on Cleve/Balt were right.

-One of my rules on football wagering is only betting the games where I feel I have a huge advantage as a gambler which isn't often.
Most NFL games are just a few points and a few plays from going either way.
Also if you only bet $25-$50 a game, don't think twice about some of this stuff, just keep having fun,
I know a couple guys that do not gamble more than perhaps 1 game a week, some weeks NONE!
They are very disciplined

I feel strongly if you wager a 4 or 5 figure number and do it diligently maybe 8 times a year, Max 1 game a week, I think you could increase your odds of being a big winner at the end of year.
I love my DFS $3 tickets and $20 tickets into the Million dollar weekly contests but the chances are slim you cash in for big money.

I am going to also have some posts with what I feel are games you should be looking for.
-Think about the lions in Africa, the real ones that hunt or starve...they don't go after the biggest bull/buffalo that is going to give them a fight and perhaps take out one or two in their pride
They hunt the weak, they hunt the babies/rookies, they hunt to find those that cannot defend themselves(Miami/Fangio)

Keep an open mind and let's try and stay away from just throwing darts on games for S&G, let's try and uncover the softest possible games and exploit them as much as we can
But primarily I would tell you to avoid most games.

Happy Hunting!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tonight...

Daniel Jones is 3-7 without Saquon Barkley at RB
Daniel Jones is 0-6 on MNF

Seattle is only laying about 1 point tonight, maybe 2
I would say the Seahawks should be heavy favorites tonight if we took away the names of the cities since New York always tips the betting lines
If you knew nothing about either team and you just look at the stats, the Giants being down 60-0 after 6 quarters of football this season
I set this up in case the Giants somehow arrive on a mission tonight but all talking points and stats up thru Week 3/4 says Seattle should win handily tonight

Are you feeling lucky?
Carroll vs Dabol

 

[FairWarning]

The most important thing is the number (price). I would bet most people betting on gamedays are losing bettors. Using the Cleveland game in your example, people could have bet Balt +2.5 when it leaked that Watson’s shoulder was hurt. Props are a different animal, those are easier to beat, they also have smaller limits, and casinos will boot you faster also.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The most important thing is the number (price). I would bet most people betting on gamedays are losing bettors. Using the Cleveland game in your example, people could have bet Balt +2.5 when it leaked that Watson’s shoulder was hurt. Props are a different animal, those are easier to beat, they also have smaller limits, and casinos will boot you faster also.

But anywhere between Balt +2.5/-2.5 or even a little more they had to lay in points, you knew the Ravens were going to BLOW them OUT
Again, a rather boring game to watch, few big plays for Baltimore to mount a comfortable lead and then just pop into cruise control

-These type of games are not common, I remind folks.
I'm telling people to mostly avoid games but then you have a few that scream easy and even then you have to be careful of trap games

 

[Runkle]

The most important thing is the number (price). I would bet most people betting on gamedays are losing bettors. Using the Cleveland game in your example, people could have bet Balt +2.5 when it leaked that Watson’s shoulder was hurt. Props are a different animal, those are easier to beat, they also have smaller limits, and casinos will boot you faster also.

But anywhere between Balt +2.5/-2.5 or even a little more they had to lay in points, you knew the Ravens were going to BLOW them OUT
Again, a rather boring game to watch, few big plays for Baltimore to mount a comfortable lead and then just pop into cruise control

-These type of games are not common, I remind folks.
I'm telling people to mostly avoid games but then you have a few that scream easy and even then you have to be careful of trap games

Some guys might get -2.5 at +125 and others might get -2.5 at -110 and that makes a huge difference in the long run

 

[FairWarning]

The most important thing is the number (price). I would bet most people betting on gamedays are losing bettors. Using the Cleveland game in your example, people could have bet Balt +2.5 when it leaked that Watson’s shoulder was hurt. Props are a different animal, those are easier to beat, they also have smaller limits, and casinos will boot you faster also.

But anywhere between Balt +2.5/-2.5 or even a little more they had to lay in points, you knew the Ravens were going to BLOW them OUT
Again, a rather boring game to watch, few big plays for Baltimore to mount a comfortable lead and then just pop into cruise control

-These type of games are not common, I remind folks.
I'm telling people to mostly avoid games but then you have a few that scream easy and even then you have to be careful of trap games

Balt + points leads to other bets - namely teasers. Heck, .5 moves when it involves key numbers is a big deal, see Denver-Chi. Pro bettors played the Bears +3.5 and won.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The most important thing is the number (price). I would bet most people betting on gamedays are losing bettors. Using the Cleveland game in your example, people could have bet Balt +2.5 when it leaked that Watson’s shoulder was hurt. Props are a different animal, those are easier to beat, they also have smaller limits, and casinos will boot you faster also.

But anywhere between Balt +2.5/-2.5 or even a little more they had to lay in points, you knew the Ravens were going to BLOW them OUT
Again, a rather boring game to watch, few big plays for Baltimore to mount a comfortable lead and then just pop into cruise control

-These type of games are not common, I remind folks.
I'm telling people to mostly avoid games but then you have a few that scream easy and even then you have to be careful of trap games

Some guys might get -2.5 at +125 and others might get -2.5 at -110 and that makes a huge difference in the long run

Let me be clear, what I'm saying is when you feel strongly one team is going to blowout the other and you limit your bets n general, this is open season
All angles were likely winners whatever the spread was, Baltimore was going to win in a blowout

I understand what others are saying but I like games where the spreads almost become meaningless
A lot of people ran to take Buffalo last weekend, they blowout the Phins by 4 TDs
If I weren't such a diehard fan of the Phins since I was born in the 3-0-5, I don't ever discuss my team or parting with money, it's one of my personal rules
I won't bet on teams I root for like the Phins and Bucs typically

African Lions, find the weakest and exploit them

 

[FFWhiskey]

It's simple. Vegas is making money, right? Most people are not making money.

So you just have to do the research to see where the public is betting and then bet against it. If Vegas is winning and Vegas is making the lines, why waste your time doing anything but following them?


It's going to be more of a slow crawl than a quick rich scheme... but again, if Vegas is making money, it's because people are placing more losing bets than winning bets.

Then surely, if you bet against the people who are losing (the public). With correct discipline and steady unit sizes (no putting your whole bankroll on one bet) you too can ride the wave.



The only problem is that this requires a lot of work and is less fun than betting with your brain and "sports logic". Line shopping, steam betting, insider resources, tracking sharp/public action, etc. Which can turn into a second job... and if I wanted a 2nd job. I would get one.

 

[FairWarning]

It's simple. Vegas is making money, right? Most people are not making money.

So you just have to do the research to see where the public is betting and then bet against it. If Vegas is winning and Vegas is making the lines, why waste your time doing anything but following them?


It's going to be more of a slow crawl than a quick rich scheme... but again, if Vegas is making money and it's because people are placing more losing bets than winning bets.

Then surely, if you bet against the people who are losing (the public). With correct discipline and steady unit sizes (no putting your whole bankroll on one bet) you too can ride the wave.



The only problem is that this requires a lot of work. Line shopping, steam betting, insider resources, tracking sharp/public action, etc. Which can turn into a second job... and if I wanted a 2nd job. I would get one.

What also is hard - the house can afford to be 50/50 thanks to the vig.

 

[RJS113]

Perfect example this week is Houston/Atlanta. My guess is that the public is all over Houston, but Atlanta is still -1.5. I think Vegas makes a ton of money off this game.

 

[FFWhiskey]

It's simple. Vegas is making money, right? Most people are not making money.

So you just have to do the research to see where the public is betting and then bet against it. If Vegas is winning and Vegas is making the lines, why waste your time doing anything but following them?


It's going to be more of a slow crawl than a quick rich scheme... but again, if Vegas is making money and it's because people are placing more losing bets than winning bets.

Then surely, if you bet against the people who are losing (the public). With correct discipline and steady unit sizes (no putting your whole bankroll on one bet) you too can ride the wave.



The only problem is that this requires a lot of work. Line shopping, steam betting, insider resources, tracking sharp/public action, etc. Which can turn into a second job... and if I wanted a 2nd job. I would get one.

What also is hard - the house can afford to be 50/50 thanks to the vig.

Correct, they are constantly siphoning 10% for every equal dollar bet against each other.

The counter sports bettors have and the leverage we possess is that we can save 10% or more by line shopping. In fact, there are opportunities to arbitrage on a daily basis.


Find a nice +105 on opposite bets available at two different books and place a max bet at both. Enjoy the free juice. But the problem is, this again requires a tremendous amount of time. Plus you need to be betting LARGE for that 5 to 10% juice to tally up anything. You'll need to be funded at multiple books, but that's a microcosm of what the pros do.

Most pros aren't significantly better gamblers or future predictors than us. They usually have a system and access to many books and wait for opportunities to steal value and when possible arbitrage, lock in a profit by leveraging two books against each other. With each book being overexposed on opposite sides.



It would also help if you LIVED in Vegas.

 

[FFWhiskey]

Perfect example this week is Houston/Atlanta. My guess is that the public is all over Houston, but Atlanta is still -1.5. I think Vegas makes a ton of money off this game.

That was my exact same logic. The world saw Atlanta get beat up in London. Meanwhile wonder rookie is on a 2 game winning streak.

I think betting CJ Stroud to throw a pick until he does is a +EV outcome at this point.


Especially in a tough road environment like Atlanta. I also am leaning Hotlanta. I just think Houston is a little overvalued and Atlanta undervalued at the moment.