Finally got a chance to watch. Really loved the episode, and I appreciate how the producers keep finding ways to make it interesting. I really love the random divides, although if I was on the show it would drive me nuts to (hopefully) build an alliance only to get randomly put in a bad spot. Hunter was in that spot, clearly a physical threat, but he's done a good job of keeping his strategic side quiet. I was wondering if the producers gave us a little foreshadowing when Q said "No one goes on an immunity run". He could do it, and kept his own idol safe in the process. He's playing a great game, but as others have pointed out, his challenge prowess is just too far out there. He should play the idol most likely the next time he's vulnerable.
Q on the other hand trying to take credit for "throwing" the challenge so he doesn't seem like a threat was a cop out. He didn't throw that challenge. He has rubbed too many people the wrong way with his commanding presence, and the flip flop on Tim/Ben shows he was unstable. Tim cooked his own goose by making it so obvious he was playing both sides, 2 weeks in a row. I'm not even sure what caused Q to flip to Ben quickly after one conversation, Tim's plan was obvious.
Tiff is so solid, seemingly always in control of her emotions. I can see Kenzie replacing Q as Tiff's number 1, she does a great job at making connections. The only threat there is that Tiff knows Kenzie makes those connections, and that isn't the best for her game.
Ben is interesting because people seem to genuinely like him, but they point out that he's loved by all as a detriment. I think he only sticks around if he can be in the Maria/Charlie alliance.
Maria is just awesome and loved seeing her win the challenge. The way she handled Venus was just masterful, and it provided a stark contrast to how Venus views herself. Charlie has a great alliance mate in her, because I think they will both be loyal to the end.
I love Tevin's game. He did a great job arranging the blindside, and then played an insurance vote on Venus just in case an idol or shot in the dark was played. The look on his face was priceless as Venus took the Olenna Tyrell path of "It was me" (except, you know, that it really was Olenna who did it in GoT). The only person she fooled was herself, I think she genuinely thought "Well they came around to my line of thinking" and took the credit that Soda gave her.
Ah Soda, I liked your energy coming out of the gate, but you played too strong. In her mind, it had to be Venus who orchestrated it because she thought everyone else loved her. You have to know when you are coming off too strong, and I think she missed that in the game and probably misses it in real life.
Tiers:
Most likely to win:
Maria, Tiff, Tevin - I think they are all playing a great game and are the strongest reps from their respective alliances. Maria and Tiff's games are very similar, in that they are quietly and calming leading. Tevin is a little more out there with his move making.
Final Four bound:
Kenzie, Charlie - Either could win, but they'll need the lead of their alliance to get taken out. Kenzie in particular has a really good chance and I almost put her in the previous tier. Great relationship maker and sneaky enough to cut people. I think people already know that though so they will get her before end. I don't think Charlie can beat Maria, and I don't think he'll participate in cutting her.
Goats/Villains:
Liz and Venus. Both are severely lacking in self awareness that I imagine plagues them in real life. Liz is self delusional who somehow thinks the world bows down to her, and Venus plays the victim when things don't go her way. One or both of these could make the end, however, as neither would get even a single vote (unless Soda truly believes that Venus is a puppet master genius).
Social player who could sneak into the Final Four:
Ben is really likable, and has a path to the final four if he can solidify with Charlie and Maria, but I think his social profile is just too high and people will take him out. I don't think he can win any challenge.
Physical threat who will get booted when vulnerable:
Hunter is a great player, and did a great job of keeping advantages quiet. But after he plays his idol his threat level is just too high
Physical threat in appearance only:
Q looks the part but it just has not translated. His alliance plan of 6 was actually a great idea, but Tim screwed it up. His flip flop nature and barking orders erratically will lead to an exit before final four.