What Long Term (10 year) Impact Will The FTX / Sam Bankman-Fried Debacle Have On Cypto and NFT? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

I have a friend that has a very popular newsletter about crypto. You should signup if you're into that. https://www.milkroad.com/ It's excellent.

I've wondered how the FTX debacle will affect the industry as a whole.

How do you think the FTX issue affects crypto and NFT for the next 10 years?

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[Joe Bryant]

And I know there is all kinds of gray area in the middle. It can be carnage, but still survive. So I know the poll isn't perfect. Feel free to comment on your vote and more on what you think about the long term future of NFT/Crypto.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks @Osaurus . Can you elaborate?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I've thought crypto is doomed, full stop, for a long time. FTX is just a big drop in the bucket.

The technology seems likely to survive, and maybe some of the hard asset backed tokens survive, but the crypto-from-nothing digital tokens? Don't see how those retain value in the long run. They don't store value, they mostly can't be used as a medium of exchange, and virtually nothing is priced directly in crypto.

On top of that, its current use cases -- illegal transactions, speculation, fraud and corruption -- are all things that will eventually get crossways with governments if it does somehow survive. And governments are damn near undefeated when it comes to these sorts of fights.

I'm more pragmatic than Warren Buffet, who "would not take all the crypto in the world if you offered it for $20", though. I would take it and immediately sell it.

 

[Juxtatarot]

Cryptos and NFTs will be exposed as mostly worthless scams within 10 years regardless of FTX.

 

[hagmania]

If Bitcoin is Netscape, we've still yet to see Google. 10 years is a long time.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I've thought crypto is doomed, full stop, for a long time. FTX is just a big drop in the bucket.

The technology seems likely to survive, and maybe some of the hard asset backed tokens survive, but the crypto-from-nothing digital tokens? Don't see how those retain value in the long run. They don't store value, they mostly can't be used as a medium of exchange, and virtually nothing is priced directly in crypto.

On top of that, its current use cases -- illegal transactions, speculation, fraud and corruption -- are all things that will eventually get crossways with governments if it does somehow survive. And governments are damn near undefeated when it comes to these sorts of fights.

I'm more pragmatic than Warren Buffet, who "would not take all the crypto in the world if you offered it for $20", though. I would take it and immediately sell it.

Thank you.

For anyone else, here's the full article. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/30/war...ion-for-why-he-doesnt-believe-in-bitcoin.html

Now, of course, Buffett doesn't literally mean that. He would take it and immediately sell it. He knows it has value today. But he thinks it will end badly.

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

I’m minimally educated on either topic but I do look at crypto and NFT’s separately. I don’t necessarily think their success or failure is tied to each other.

This is a simplistic approach I am sure, but to me, crypto is a currency and an NFT is an item that can be bought/sold with crypto but it doesn’t have to be. I think NFT’s have much broader applications than just something that can be bought and sold using crypto currency.

 

[eoMMan]

We move on. If the SBF/FTX situation was going to be the reason crypto collapsed, you wouldn’t see bitcoin still at $16k. There are still many bright people who see a promising future with crypto, even if there are bad actors along the way.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Now, of course, Buffett doesn't literally mean that. He would take it and immediately sell it. He knows it has value today.

Not to hijack the discussion or take this hypothetical too far, but if one guy actually owned “all the crypto in the world” would it have value? These alternate currencies sometimes make my head spin. If one prisoner has all the cigarettes, he’s sitting on a gold mine because there’s scarcity + demand (not an economist). But if one person has all the crypto, what value could it possibly have and who would buy any from him?

 

[cubd8]

I have a friend that has a very popular newsletter about crypto. You should signup if you're into that. https://www.milkroad.com/ It's excellent.

I've wondered how the FTX debacle will affect the industry as a whole.

How do you think the FTX issue affects crypto and NFT for the next 10 years?

​

I am hoping that people will learn and stop investing in crypto. I also hope that bitcoin is able to become a distinct asset and not grouped into crypto.

 

[cubd8]

And I know there is all kinds of gray area in the middle. It can be carnage, but still survive. So I know the poll isn't perfect. Feel free to comment on your vote and more on what you think about the long term future of NFT/Crypto.

In the short-term, the market still needs to be flushed of these exchanges that were bad actors. Crypto.com, Blockfi, and Genesis (TBD, but probably in trouble) are likely next up.

 

[Rirruto]

Mount Gox was doing somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of all Bitcoin transactions when it when belly up. I think we’d really have to see some contagion within FTX that’s way higher than anyone is predicting right now for the end of crypto to be in the conversation as it relates to FTX.

The fact is that most major crypto influencers were calling a $10k-$19k Bitcoin bottom when things were rocking and rolling a couple of years ago (notably, they were also predicting highs of $100k+). So crypto believers are going to stay in because they expected there would be another huge price dip.

Those predictions are really only based on the price of Bitcoin so far. But it certainly has cycled so far over the course of its existence. So far. That doesn’t mean that it actually will rocket again (a crypto believer would say that it has every other time). But it means that the believers are going to stay in because this is what they expected. When the price starts to go back up, speculators will hop back in because they’ve seen the price potential before and because Bitcoin will become more scarce because the amount you can mine will be cut in half (a crypto booster would tell you that the cycles are based on that halving and not some random chance or luck—we will have to see what happens to know who is right).

So I for sure don’t know what will happen with Bitcoin or crypto moving forward, but I think my vote will be that FTX has next to zero impact on the price of Bitcoin 10 years from now. If the haters are right, it will crash to zero with or without FTX. If the lovers are right, it will go through a couple of bear/bull cycles between now and then.

 

[Joe Bryant]

So I for sure don’t know what will happen with Bitcoin or crypto moving forward, but I think my vote will be that FTX has next to zero impact on the price of Bitcoin 10 years from now. If the haters are right, it will crash to zero with or without FTX. If the lovers are right, it will go through a couple of bear/bull cycles between now and then.

Thanks. That's an interesting angle on it but I think minimizes all the people in the middle. I think the "haters" and "lovers" of crypto are still a pretty small fringe. With lots in the middle.

And I think a super high profile, and attention grabbing story like Bankman-Fried has a significant impact on those in the middle. But we'll of course see.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I don’t think it destroys crypto at all. If anything—it will probably be a spark in creating and enforcing new regulation that works to prevent something like this from happening again. Also, I think this event will encourage people to pick and choose which crypto they invest in more wisely. Bitcoin is not the same as the other pump and dump sh*tcoins out there.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

But wasn't the whole promise of crypto that it would be a system that required no trust or regulation or govt controls? What exactly is the point of it at all if it requires all of those things?

 

[Desert_Power]

But wasn't the whole promise of crypto that it would be a system that required no trust or regulation or govt controls? What exactly is the point of it at all if it requires all of those things?

I draw a distinction between crypto and what FTX is though. The latter is more like a bank in that it both takes customer deposits and issues/trades what are basically securities. It makes sense to regulate them accordingly.

Crypto currencies like BTC and ETH do not have those two key properties so I am not sure what regulation they really should have. They are harder to use without an intermediary that will probably need some regulation. Long term, it’s really a question of whether these crypto coins have a value besides speculation.

 

[ChicoCat]

As a lunch pail American with a pension, Roth IRA and a small investment package; I don't really trust it. I never have and this FTX situation has made me more wary of it than before. I understand the basics of it. I realize I missed making money in it in the past. I realize I might be missing making money in it in the future. Called me "scared money" or whatver; but something just doesn't feel right about it. It has the gut feelings of "get rich quick schemery" ( I know that's not always a bad thing). Nevermind my thoughts that A) there's probably more illicit money movement in it than most would admit/realize and B) if there is that.....it will be curbed and heeled by government. I had friends telling me to get in and "buy the dip/always buy the dip" in these past year..... but if I listened to them in bying the dips one year ago today.....I'd probably be ready to kill myself. I think there's alot of Americans like me.

 

[The Z Machine]

But wasn't the whole promise of crypto that it would be a system that required no trust or regulation or govt controls? What exactly is the point of it at all if it requires all of those things?

So people don't rob you or scam you.

Cold wallets aren't very good if you lose your access key. Plus, the stuff in there is not easily transferable unlike, you know, real money.

 

[Judge Smails]

Too many bad stories out there. Exchanges going out of business, wallets vaporizing, etc. doesn’t inspire confidence for average investors. The believers will believe. Good on them. Not for me

 

[Statorama]

I don't fully understand it and don't want to. But I also don't understand people waiting in line to buy a $10 cup of coffee everyday either, so take it for what is worth.

 

[KGB]

This would have been interesting in a bull market. everything is going down anyway. stocks too.

They will probably just use this to try and regulate.

not everyone lives in the USA

 

[The Z Machine]

not everyone lives in the USA

Are you sure? My FB feed only has Americans in it.