ZWK's 2024 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

Ricky Pearsall didn't do much after the catch in college, with 11th percentile YAC and 6th percentile MT rate (adjusted for target location & TDs) relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. Not what SF usually goes for in their WRs.

Although he did have 21/253/5 rushing, with 6 missed tackles forced on rushes, which are great numbers for a WR. Not sure why he was able to do that on the ground but unable to do more after the catch.

 

[(HULK)]

Great first round for dynasty leagues, although in some cases not so good for a player's first season or two. 6 QBs, 7 WRs, and 1 TE drafted, many early and/or earlier than expected, some to good or great landing spots, and none with a major overall downgrade based on the combo of draft capital & landing spot.

6 QBs in the first 12 picks is great for superflex. 4 were expected. Penix & Nix get a big boost from being drafted early. Short-term it's bad for Penix to be behind Cousins. Cousins basically got the first 2 years guaranteed in his 4-year deal, so he won't be cut before then, though a trade is a possibility.

KC a perfect landing spot for Worthy. Being on a top passing offense is good for any receiver. And in this case there's a particularly good fit, because KC loves to give manufactured touches to speedy good-after-the-catch receivers (Hardman, Toney, Hill, Conley, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas) and that was Worthy's biggest strength at Texas. That won't be enough on its own to give Worthy fantasy value (see: all but one of those names), but it'll be a boost to whatever other production he can earn down the field.

Chicago not a good spot for Rome Odunze's rookie year production with Moore & Allen there, but if Caleb Williams hits it'll be great long-term. Jacksonville a somewhat similar situation for Brian Thomas, but the short-term target competition isn't as strong. San Francisco somewhat similar for Pearsall, though their potential for high-end passing numbers over the coming years are more about scheme/coaching than quarterbacking; Pearsall also gets an earlier-than-expected draft capital boost.

On the other end of the QB / passing offense spectrum, Nabers goes to NYG, Bowers to LV, and Legette to CAR. But the good thing about bad quarterbacking is that it doesn't last long - in 2 years those teams will probably have different quarterbacks (or their current QB will turn out better than expected). The Raiders also have Michael Mayer, which is a bit of a negative for Bowers, though it might not be a negative if Mayer isn't good enough to be more than a typical TE2 (he wasn't good as a rookie) or if the team finds a good way to use 2 TEs. Legette (like Pearsall) gets a boost from being drafted earlier than expected.

Adonai Mitchell & Ladd McConkey not getting drafted rd1 is a negative for them; how much depends on how far they fall.

FYSA, Cousin's contract has a no trade clause.

 

[ZWK]

Great first round for dynasty leagues, although in some cases not so good for a player's first season or two. 6 QBs, 7 WRs, and 1 TE drafted, many early and/or earlier than expected, some to good or great landing spots, and none with a major overall downgrade based on the combo of draft capital & landing spot.

6 QBs in the first 12 picks is great for superflex. 4 were expected. Penix & Nix get a big boost from being drafted early. Short-term it's bad for Penix to be behind Cousins. Cousins basically got the first 2 years guaranteed in his 4-year deal, so he won't be cut before then, though a trade is a possibility.

KC a perfect landing spot for Worthy. Being on a top passing offense is good for any receiver. And in this case there's a particularly good fit, because KC loves to give manufactured touches to speedy good-after-the-catch receivers (Hardman, Toney, Hill, Conley, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas) and that was Worthy's biggest strength at Texas. That won't be enough on its own to give Worthy fantasy value (see: all but one of those names), but it'll be a boost to whatever other production he can earn down the field.

Chicago not a good spot for Rome Odunze's rookie year production with Moore & Allen there, but if Caleb Williams hits it'll be great long-term. Jacksonville a somewhat similar situation for Brian Thomas, but the short-term target competition isn't as strong. San Francisco somewhat similar for Pearsall, though their potential for high-end passing numbers over the coming years are more about scheme/coaching than quarterbacking; Pearsall also gets an earlier-than-expected draft capital boost.

On the other end of the QB / passing offense spectrum, Nabers goes to NYG, Bowers to LV, and Legette to CAR. But the good thing about bad quarterbacking is that it doesn't last long - in 2 years those teams will probably have different quarterbacks (or their current QB will turn out better than expected). The Raiders also have Michael Mayer, which is a bit of a negative for Bowers, though it might not be a negative if Mayer isn't good enough to be more than a typical TE2 (he wasn't good as a rookie) or if the team finds a good way to use 2 TEs. Legette (like Pearsall) gets a boost from being drafted earlier than expected.

Adonai Mitchell & Ladd McConkey not getting drafted rd1 is a negative for them; how much depends on how far they fall.

FYSA, Cousin's contract has a no trade clause.

Good point. So a trade will only happen if Cousins agrees to it. And Atlanta probably won't get all that much back if they do trade him, since teams will be competing with each other to get Cousins to choose them instead of trying to make the offer that the Falcons like most. It does still seem like a possibility, a year from now, if ATL wants to hand things over to Penix and get out of Cousins' contract and a team like PIT or NYJ wants to woo Cousins to their city.

 

[ZWK]

Ricky Pearsall didn't do much after the catch in college, with 11th percentile YAC and 6th percentile MT rate (adjusted for target location & TDs) relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. Not what SF usually goes for in their WRs.

Although he did have 21/253/5 rushing, with 6 missed tackles forced on rushes, which are great numbers for a WR. Not sure why he was able to do that on the ground but unable to do more after the catch.

Video of every Ricky Pearsall rushing touchdown

 

[ZWK]

Day 2 RBs

46 Jonathon Brooks CAR
66 Trey Benson ARI
83 Blake Corum LAR
88 MarShawn Lloyd GB

My dynasty ranking is currently the same as their draft order.

These picks are pretty close to their consensus board ranks (56, 58, 77, 94), though with more of a gap between Brooks & Benson. Initial impression is that landing spot is great for Corum, bad for Lloyd, and solid for Brooks & Benson.

Carolina has Hubbard in the last year of his contract, and Miles Sanders in the last guaranteed year of his contract (and probably not worth his non-gtd 2025 salary). Could be a committee, or Brooks could earn a workhorse role in year 1 or year 2. Though if the offense doesn't get better that will make the Panthers' RB role less valuable.

Arizona has 29-year-old James Conner in the last year of his contract, and not much else. So Benson has a straightforward path to an immediate committee role and a year 2 starting job, with possibilities of taking over a bigger role in year 1 if Conner struggles or misses time.

Los Angeles has Kyren Williams with 2 years left on his rookie deal, coming off a huge year. I like this landing spot a lot for Corum - I was worried that he was a low ceiling guy because he doesn't seem like a special back, but LA is a situation that creates a high ceiling. They like to rely heavily on their top back, and can change suddenly who that is, which makes this a boom-or-bust landing spot for a reliable back like Corum, depending on whether he can usurp Williams.

Green Bay has Josh Jacobs on basically a year-to-year contract for $11.5M/year - he gets $14.8M this year and will cost an additional $8.2M to keep in 2025, $11.5M for 2026, and $13.5M in 2027. Jacobs will probably be the lead back as long as he's good, but GB could easily move on if he declines. Definitely bad for Lloyd to land behind him, but leaves more room for hope than it seems. Though there's an additional concern that Lloyd was much better on man/gap run concepts than on zone runs, and the Packers use a lot of zone blocking.