I have been a footballguys member for about 5 years now and all this time I have used VBD. I think its totally great and I understand it all the way. More and more now I am reading about DVBD and I am just not getting how it works. I have seen some other topics on it and they seem to discuss parts of it but I'm just not getting the whole picture. How does it differ from VBD and how do I get started? Do I need to use the DD in my draft to use DVBD? We are not allowed to bring computers, so I have to do everything before hand or by hand at the draft. I know this is alot, but if someone could explain it all that would be great. Thanks.
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Dynamic Value Based Drafting (DVBD) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter prljam95
- Start date
CalBear
Footballguy
DVBD attempts to take into account the VBD difference at each position between your current pick and your next pick. If you're drafting at 1.06, there will be 12 picks before your next chance. At 1.06, you might have similar VBD numbers for Jackson, Manning, and Chad Johnson, but you can figure that by the 2.07 pick, there will be something like 8 RBs, 3 WRs, and 1 QB taken. DVBD is the difference in drop-off between the players available at 1.06, and the players likely to be available at 2.07. In this case, the drop-off at RB will be much greater than the drop-off at WR or QB, so DVBD will tell you to take the RB.
If you have VBD and ADP sheets, you can probably do a reasonable estimation on the fly; just look at the next set of picks and who is likely to go, and compare the VBD of the player you might select at each position with the VBD of a player you'd guess will be left to you at your next pick. Probably you already do this in your head to some extent.
If you have VBD and ADP sheets, you can probably do a reasonable estimation on the fly; just look at the next set of picks and who is likely to go, and compare the VBD of the player you might select at each position with the VBD of a player you'd guess will be left to you at your next pick. Probably you already do this in your head to some extent.
joffer
Footballguy
there is
gocats
Footballguy
Make sure the 'best value' window is open. It has the DVBD calculator.
It would be nice if DD had an option to incorperate dynasty league strategy... for example... M. Leinart is pretty valuable in that format, as is Aaron Rogers and others... whereas in the current DD, they are bottom feeders. Nice tool, but all my drafts are Dynastys.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
FYI, there is a great Pearl Jam thread (tour) in the Free For All that I'm sure you would like...Hijack over.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Then why don't you just go in and manually bump up the players that you're targeting for dynasty?It would be nice if DD had an option to incorperate dynasty league strategy... for example... M. Leinart is pretty valuable in that format, as is Aaron Rogers and others... whereas in the current DD, they are bottom feeders. Nice tool, but all my drafts are Dynastys.
How do I do that? I have been trying to figure it out... it won't let me drag a guy to a dif spot. If I click move, it drafts him... I have no clue. My first year using the proggy.Then why don't you just go in and manually bump up the players that you're targeting for dynasty?It would be nice if DD had an option to incorperate dynasty league strategy... for example... M. Leinart is pretty valuable in that format, as is Aaron Rogers and others... whereas in the current DD, they are bottom feeders. Nice tool, but all my drafts are Dynastys.
deadstick
Footballguy
I first heard of it here (referred to as ZVBD at the time):
http://www.footballguys.com/zarzycki_zvbd.htm
http://www.footballguys.com/zarzycki_zvbd.htm
GregR_2
Footballguy
Calbear gave a nice description.
Here's another example of what it is trying to do. VBD tells you that right now, amongst the best QB, RB and WR available at your pick, Steve Smith has the most value based on your projections.
However, you feel certain no one is going to pick Steve Smith before your next pick, but instead about 6 RBs and 2 QBs will be taken. So your choices are the RB now and Steve Smith next round. Or Steve Smith now and a RB next round who is 6 spots lower on your ranking. Obviously you'd rather pair the better RB with Steve Smith, so there must be some component of value that VBD didn't account for.
And there is. The rate at which positions are depleted in the draft also plays into value to your team. VBD doesn't account for it. DVBD is a way of doing this. In essence, just take how many points the best RB available this round will score and subtract the points the best RB next round will score. Do this for each position and consider taking the guy whose position drops off the most.
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Ok, if that's not clear, read it again before you go on. Because here's the thing... yes, that definitely helps you. But if you want to get the absolute best draft, when deciding who to pick this round, you would want to factor in (in a DVBD sense) not just this pick and next pick, but every single pick you have. Because every pick is affected by this one.
That's why I really advocate not using VBD or DVBD as a draft strategy, but instead use them as a tool to help you quickly get a view of where value lies at a specific moment in a draft.
For a draft strategy, what I'd really suggest is that you just go through and mock your draft several times. Try drafting that QB in the third and see what decisions you are faced with in each succeeding round. In each of those rounds, check your VBD and DVBD numbers. After you end up with a final team, record it and total up the starter points and rate your backups. Then go back and do it again, taking Gates in the third round instead and see how it changes your draft.
By doing this, your draft strategy is gaining the prior knowledge of how each pick will affect the rest of your draft. As I said it is a difficult equation to solve quantitatively, to the point you'll need a computer to get to an exact answer. Much better is to know all the ramifications of your picks. If you passed on your 3rd RB in rounds 3 and 4, did you then spend an additional pick on a RB backup instead of a WR3 because you weren't happy with your depth and not much was left? Did you find the QBBC available where you thought you would? Or would having taken a stud QB earlier and two WRs later have worked better?
Those are the questions you can best answer by putting yourself in the situation and just seeing how it turns out, long before your draft takes place.
Here's another example of what it is trying to do. VBD tells you that right now, amongst the best QB, RB and WR available at your pick, Steve Smith has the most value based on your projections.
However, you feel certain no one is going to pick Steve Smith before your next pick, but instead about 6 RBs and 2 QBs will be taken. So your choices are the RB now and Steve Smith next round. Or Steve Smith now and a RB next round who is 6 spots lower on your ranking. Obviously you'd rather pair the better RB with Steve Smith, so there must be some component of value that VBD didn't account for.
And there is. The rate at which positions are depleted in the draft also plays into value to your team. VBD doesn't account for it. DVBD is a way of doing this. In essence, just take how many points the best RB available this round will score and subtract the points the best RB next round will score. Do this for each position and consider taking the guy whose position drops off the most.
------------
Ok, if that's not clear, read it again before you go on. Because here's the thing... yes, that definitely helps you. But if you want to get the absolute best draft, when deciding who to pick this round, you would want to factor in (in a DVBD sense) not just this pick and next pick, but every single pick you have. Because every pick is affected by this one.
That's why I really advocate not using VBD or DVBD as a draft strategy, but instead use them as a tool to help you quickly get a view of where value lies at a specific moment in a draft.
For a draft strategy, what I'd really suggest is that you just go through and mock your draft several times. Try drafting that QB in the third and see what decisions you are faced with in each succeeding round. In each of those rounds, check your VBD and DVBD numbers. After you end up with a final team, record it and total up the starter points and rate your backups. Then go back and do it again, taking Gates in the third round instead and see how it changes your draft.
By doing this, your draft strategy is gaining the prior knowledge of how each pick will affect the rest of your draft. As I said it is a difficult equation to solve quantitatively, to the point you'll need a computer to get to an exact answer. Much better is to know all the ramifications of your picks. If you passed on your 3rd RB in rounds 3 and 4, did you then spend an additional pick on a RB backup instead of a WR3 because you weren't happy with your depth and not much was left? Did you find the QBBC available where you thought you would? Or would having taken a stud QB earlier and two WRs later have worked better?
Those are the questions you can best answer by putting yourself in the situation and just seeing how it turns out, long before your draft takes place.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Download the Projections Dominator. It has detailed instructions on how to adjust players' statistics. Fantastic program.sleeper43 said:How do I do that? I have been trying to figure it out... it won't let me drag a guy to a dif spot. If I click move, it drafts him... I have no clue. My first year using the proggy.Keys Myaths said:Then why don't you just go in and manually bump up the players that you're targeting for dynasty?sleeper43 said:It would be nice if DD had an option to incorperate dynasty league strategy... for example... M. Leinart is pretty valuable in that format, as is Aaron Rogers and others... whereas in the current DD, they are bottom feeders. Nice tool, but all my drafts are Dynastys.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'm working on something.....sleeper43 said:It would be nice if DD had an option to incorperate dynasty league strategy... for example... M. Leinart is pretty valuable in that format, as is Aaron Rogers and others... whereas in the current DD, they are bottom feeders. Nice tool, but all my drafts are Dynastys.
Last edited by a moderator:
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Go in and edit the projections. Give Leinart better numbers. Poof.sleeper43 said:How do I do that? I have been trying to figure it out... it won't let me drag a guy to a dif spot. If I click move, it drafts him... I have no clue. My first year using the proggy.Keys Myaths said:Then why don't you just go in and manually bump up the players that you're targeting for dynasty?sleeper43 said:It would be nice if DD had an option to incorperate dynasty league strategy... for example... M. Leinart is pretty valuable in that format, as is Aaron Rogers and others... whereas in the current DD, they are bottom feeders. Nice tool, but all my drafts are Dynastys.
CalBear
Footballguy
Just giving Leinart better numbers isn't really the correct thing to do; you're not expecting him to put up better numbers this year, but you expect his value to be higher than other players in future years.
The way I hand-wave at this, if I want to get quantitative and use a tool like DD, is to compute "expected future value to my team".
So, do projections for Leinart for three years. Maybe it's something like 2006: 50 fantasy points, 2007: 200 2008: 300 (if you think he'll be a success). Then modify those later years by the percentage likelihood that he will still be on my roster. So, in a deep dynasty, I might view Leinart's probability of being on my future roster as fairly high, 80% for 2007 and 60% for 2008, say. For a keep-1 league, the probability of being on my future roster is pretty low, 10% or less. Multiply your future projections by your future probabilities; in the first case, 50+(200*.80)+(300*.60). Do that for everyone, and then put all those numbers into the Projections Dominator or DD, and you can get reasonable VBD numbers with a dynasty flavor.
The way I hand-wave at this, if I want to get quantitative and use a tool like DD, is to compute "expected future value to my team".
So, do projections for Leinart for three years. Maybe it's something like 2006: 50 fantasy points, 2007: 200 2008: 300 (if you think he'll be a success). Then modify those later years by the percentage likelihood that he will still be on my roster. So, in a deep dynasty, I might view Leinart's probability of being on my future roster as fairly high, 80% for 2007 and 60% for 2008, say. For a keep-1 league, the probability of being on my future roster is pretty low, 10% or less. Multiply your future projections by your future probabilities; in the first case, 50+(200*.80)+(300*.60). Do that for everyone, and then put all those numbers into the Projections Dominator or DD, and you can get reasonable VBD numbers with a dynasty flavor.
shamrock84
Footballguy
I'm working on something.....sleeper43 said:It would be nice if DD had an option to incorperate dynasty league strategy... for example... M. Leinart is pretty valuable in that format, as is Aaron Rogers and others... whereas in the current DD, they are bottom feeders. Nice tool, but all my drafts are Dynastys.
John Mamula
Moderator
everyone here needs to read GregR's post, come back in an hour and read it again.
if you don't understand the concept, ask.
there are way too many people that use VBD (or DVBD) as a tool to tell you who to draft which is a mistake. it doesn't kill your team, but not looking ahead by more than 1 round leaves a lot of points on the table.
when it comes to the draft, no quantitative calculations need to be made.
they should have already been made beforehand.
if you don't understand the concept, ask.
there are way too many people that use VBD (or DVBD) as a tool to tell you who to draft which is a mistake. it doesn't kill your team, but not looking ahead by more than 1 round leaves a lot of points on the table.
when it comes to the draft, no quantitative calculations need to be made.
they should have already been made beforehand.
GregR_2
Footballguy
Well, I'd use whichever method looks like it will come closest to how your league really drafts. In fact if neither looks very close you might want to either not use DD's automated stuff for the picks, and just pick all teams yourself... or maybe monkey with the VBD baselines to make it reflect how people draft and then use VBD and the automation.
On not knowing your draft spot... um... yeah, that rots. I guess... hmm. On one hand you probably don't want to take the time to go through and do this for every spot. So you could do a couple of things. You could do the mock where you draft for every team and maybe try to document some of your decisions and how they worked out, so you can pull them out when you know where you draft from.
Or you could go througho and draft from the 2 spot, draft from the 5 spot, draft from the 8 spot, from the 11 spot... and try to just get a representative feel.
Though I'd also spend a lot of time just examining your player list, noticing the tiers and drop offs, noting guys who you think are worth more than where they are likely to go.
It sucks not knowing the draft order. It's one of those moves that lessens how much you can prepare. I'd tend to think it helps the less skilled owner who wouldn't prepare as much. :(
On not knowing your draft spot... um... yeah, that rots. I guess... hmm. On one hand you probably don't want to take the time to go through and do this for every spot. So you could do a couple of things. You could do the mock where you draft for every team and maybe try to document some of your decisions and how they worked out, so you can pull them out when you know where you draft from.
Or you could go througho and draft from the 2 spot, draft from the 5 spot, draft from the 8 spot, from the 11 spot... and try to just get a representative feel.
Though I'd also spend a lot of time just examining your player list, noticing the tiers and drop offs, noting guys who you think are worth more than where they are likely to go.
It sucks not knowing the draft order. It's one of those moves that lessens how much you can prepare. I'd tend to think it helps the less skilled owner who wouldn't prepare as much. :(
