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[DYNASTY] Darrius Heyward-Bey (1 Viewer)

EBF

EBF

Footballguy
DHB was a huge reach and colossal mistake as the #7 pick in the draft. Everyone but Al Davis knew it at the time. He has always been a better physical specimen than football player and his production has never matched his talent level. I'm not going to suggest that he's a superstar in waiting. At the same time, I've done a couple dynasty startup drafts in the past month and I'm wondering if his value has slid to the point where he might actually be a good buy low candidate.

I just got him as WR72 (including rookies) in a 14 team PPR startup. He went at WR77 in my other draft. He's ranked at WR89 in the current FBG staff dynasty rankings, below such luminaries as Brian Hartline, Nate Washington, and Patrick Crayton. I'll be the first to acknowledge that Heyward-Bey looked dreadful in his rookie year, but isn't it a bit premature to bury his career after one terrible season?

I'm a Bay Area guy. I watched DHB play in the preseason. I watched him play in the regular season. He never showed me any glimmers of potential. On the other hand, that's not entirely unexpected from a rookie WR. Lots of great WRs didn't even see the field in their rookie seasons. Here are Heyward-Bey's rookie stats:

Darrius Heyward-Bey - 9 catches, 124 yards

Pretty ugly. These numbers don't offer much hope...or do they? Here are rookie stats for some other prominent WRs:

Robert Meachem - 0 catches, 0 yards

Miles Austin - 0 catches, 0 yards

Santana Moss - 2 catches, 40 yards

Donald Driver - 3 catches, 31 yards

Vincent Jackson - 3 catches, 59 yards

Pierre Garcon - 4 catches, 23 yards

Jerricho Cotchery - 6 catches, 60 yards

Steve Smith (NYG) - 8 catches, 63 yards

Steve Smith (CAR) - 10 catches, 154 yards

Derrick Mason - 14 catches, 186 yards

TJ Houshmandzadeh - 22 catches, 228 yards

Hines Ward - 15 catches, 246 yards

Brandon Marshall - 20 catches, 309 yards

Plaxico Burress - 22 catches, 273 yards

Roddy White - 29 catches, 446 yards

Darrius Heyward-Bey had a better rookie season than Miles Austin, Santana Moss, Donald Driver, and Vincent Jackson. That's a pretty stunning truth, but of course it's not that simple.

Many of the players on the above list were low profile prospects when they entered the league, meaning they weren't handed the opportunities that a first round pick typically receives. Miles Austin was undrafted. Donald Driver and TJ Houshmandzadeh were 7th round picks. Pierre Garcon was a 6th round pick. Derrick Mason, Jerricho Cotchery, and Brandon Marshall were 4th round picks. Hines Ward and Steve Smith (CAR) were 3rd round picks. Chad Ochocinco, Vincent Jackson, and Steve Smith (NYG) were 2nd round picks. By and large, these players weren't expected to be contributors on opening day. Many of them had to battle just to make their team's roster as rookies. It shouldn't be a big surprise that they were slow to impact because their respective coaching staffs had no impetus to force them into action before they were ready to play. But what about the first round WRs on my list?

Robert Meachem, Santana Moss, Plaxico Burress, and Roddy White all had poor rookie years. All of them were considered busts at one point in time. All of them turned it around. Why did these guys start so slowly? Meachem and Moss struggled with injuries, but both were healthy enough to play at least a little bit. Moss averaged less than 10 yards per game in his rookie year and Meachem didn't record a single catch. Burress played 12 games and averaged 23 yards per game. He was ineffective, he dropped too many passes, and everyone thought he was a huge bust. White fared substantially better than this trio with a respectable 446 yards as a rookie, but his production and results still had fans crying bust early in his career.

None of this proves that Darrius Heyward-Bey is likely to become a productive pro player, but the numbers suggest that it's entirely possible for a WR to emerge as a superstar after humble beginnings. Are we being too quick to write off DHB? Is there any explanation for his poor rookie performance? I think there might be.

The first thing working against Heyward-Bey is something we'll call "The JaMarcus Factor." The Raiders were a terrible football team in 2009. The majority of their passes were thrown by JaMarcus Russell, arguably one of the worst long term starting QBs in the history of the NFL. JaMarcus completed less than 50% of his passes, averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, and threw just 3 TDs against 11 INTs. Oakland's leading receiver was TE Zach Miller. He had just 805 yards, which is a paltry total compared to the top pass catcher on most NFL teams. My point here? Oakland's passing game was putrid. Some of the blame probably falls on Heyward-Bey, but I think everyone can agree that his supporting cast didn't put him in position to succeed (as opposed to Harvin in Minnesota or Maclin in Philadelphia).

And was it really reasonable to expect a good rookie year from Heyward-Bey in the first place? Even before the Raiders drafted him, DHB was described as a raw project who needed lots of refinement. In this regard he's similar to Brandon Marshall, Chad Ochocinco, Vincent Jackson, and Robert Meachem. All of them were considered compelling physical specimens who lacked the polish to make an instant impact. It wasn't a terrible surprise to see them slow out of the gate. No one called Vincent Jackson or Chad Ochocinco a bust after their rookie years. Yet everyone has already given up on Heyward-Bey. Why? Expectations.

DHB was a top 10 draft pick. To make matters worse, he was picked ahead of more polished talents like Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, and Hakeem Nicks. As a result, his rookie performance tends to be evaluated in relation to that of his peers. That's unfortunate because all of the other first round rookie WRs selected last year had excellent seasons. If we take a step back and realize that DHB was really a late first-early second round project who was picked a round too high because one delusional team owner fell in love with his speed, I think his rookie season performance looks more palatable. While we hope that every rookie will make an immediate impact, we don't panic when 2nd round project types like Devin Thomas, Vincent Jackson, and Chad Ochocinco fail to become instant stars. In that context DHB's performance is much more acceptable.

Heyward-Bey had a terrible rookie year, but it's premature to close the book on his NFL career. His situation was terrible last season and unrealistic expectations magnified his poor performance because he was viewed as a high first round WR when in reality he was a project who had very little hope of making an instant impact even before the Raiders took him.

He's not without talent. In highlight reels like this one you can see glimmers of speed and playmaking ability. My main concern (aside from the fact that he looked horrible as a rookie) is that Heyward-Bey never dominated in college whereas guys like Santana Moss, Vincent Jackson, and Plaxico Burress were immensely productive at the NCAA level. It's possible that Heyward-Bey simply doesn't have the football skills to ever become a quality NFL player. Time may justify the current level of skepticism, but his story isn't over yet. If we view him as a project WR who was doomed to fail as a rookie because of his toxic situation and his lack of polish, we should be much more forgiving of his early struggles.

 
Too early to tell in my opinion. But, the odds are stacked against him.

Ike Hilliard didn't flame out that quickly - had a decent career. Look at Reggie Wayne's rookie year also. Add Eric Moulds to the list.

He could also be a bust like Williamson, David Terrell, Gardner and a huge number of 1st rd picks.

 
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EBF said:
DHB was a huge reach and colossal mistake as the #7 pick in the draft. Everyone but Al Davis knew it at the time. He has always been a better physical specimen than football player and his production has never matched his talent level. I'm not going to suggest that he's a superstar in waiting. At the same time, I've done a couple dynasty startup drafts in the past month and I'm wondering if his value has slid to the point where he might actually be a good buy low candidate. I just got him as WR72 (including rookies) in a 14 team PPR startup. He went at WR77 in my other draft. He's ranked at WR89 in the current FBG staff dynasty rankings, below such luminaries as Brian Hartline, Nate Washington, and Patrick Crayton. I'll be the first to acknowledge that Heyward-Bey looked dreadful in his rookie year, but isn't it a bit premature to bury his career after one terrible season?I'm a Bay Area guy. I watched DHB play in the preseason. I watched him play in the regular season. He never showed me any glimmers of potential. On the other hand, that's not entirely unexpected from a rookie WR. Lots of great WRs didn't even see the field in their rookie seasons. Here are Heyward-Bey's rookie stats:Darrius Heyward-Bey - 9 catches, 124 yards
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Looking at the WRs taken before him in your draft, I would have taken DHB too, and I am not much of a fan. But when I get to a point later in the draft, I'd rather take a chance on upside than draft some mediocre bench warmer. If I ever want a player like that down the road, I can usually trade a low future rookie pick and acquire one if the need arises.
 
Very well written piece there, DHB. I agree with pretty much all of what you said. We can't jump to conclusions too soon, but DHB needs to make a big leap in 2010 to prove the doubters wrong. With better QB play from Gradkowski (hopefully), we should see his numbers take a bump in the right direction. I would buy him low now if I could get him for next to nothing, but I don't see that happening.

 
Very nice post, EBF.

I agree that it's too early to write DHB off. It's worth remembering that how a rookie WR plays has a much lower correlation to how he plays for the rest of his career than say, how a rookie RB plays. Especially for a raw prospect like DHB, using one year to judge a guy seems absurd. Vernon Davis also busted as a rookie, and like DHB, he went to Maryland. I think it's legitimate to wonder how that school -- with terrible QBs -- prepares receivers for the NFL.

 
On the bright side, I doubt you would have to buy high.

I don't play a ton of dynasty anymore, but when I did I used to feast on guys that were highly touted coming into the league and didn't do much or were disappointments early on that ended up being dropped right before they heated up (and were either throw-ins in trades or on the waiver wire).

DHB may fall into that category and should not cost an arm and a leg to acquire. If he started the season slowly this year, his price will only go down. One would think that the Raiders at some point will start to get better offensively . . .

 
People forget that he was thought to be a first round prospect by many teams.. he went to the Raiders way too early and since Al Davis is nuts they wrote him off as a busted prospect.

 
Surprised to see this thread started by EBF.

The major problem I have with DHB is I don't trust Oakland to develop a player. Tom Cable is not a good coach. I don't trust Al Davis to create an environment where a raw player like DHB will develop. Davis signing Hue Jackson to help JaM Russell is a positive (e.g., what if he hired a good WR coach), but I don't trust Davis to make those sort of personnel decisions regularly.

DHB's rookie season made this painfully clear (and I own DHB in one league, so I was willing to gamble on him at one point). Most of the players you listed were allowed to sit on the bench, learn in practice, and acclimate to the NFL level. DHB was thrown to the wolves. The only reason he has any catches is because Al told Cable to start the kid, and Cable obliged. The 11 games he played last year were all GS's. 9 catches looks a lot worse when you realize he started so many games.

I would feel better about DHB if he had 0 starts and 0 catches last year. I would feel better if there were veteran WRs in Oakland for him to learn from and sit behind (not Javon Walker). The fact he got a lot of reps and looked embarrassingly bad makes him more likely to flame out, especially since Oakland can be such a toxic environment.

 
For the Raiders he is the new James Jett - that is his upside. Jett had blazing speed and once he got the ball, no one could keep up him. The problem was, he didn't get the ball often enough to merit anything more than a Fantasy flex start. He had one really good year in 1997 with 804 yards and 12 TDs, but that was an outlier and his usual production was more like about 600-700 yards and 5-6 TDs.

I see a similar situation with DHB. I see him settling in as the # 3 WR on this team.

The buy low candidates are Chaz Schillens and Louis Murphy, both which still can be had fairly cheaply. I thought Murphy showed more in his rookie year than DHB and seems to be a play maker from the few games I watched. Schillens was slow in recovering from his injury and then when he was healthy the team was transitioning from Russell to Gradkowski. But Chaz should be 100% this year, seems to have good hands from what I can tell and I see him production wise emerging as the #1.

 
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I am not overly high on DHB, but he does present good value. In one league, an owner threw him in to me to get me to pull the trigger on the deal. I was going to make the deal anyway, so basically DHB was a free add in for me. I am not very high on his chances to succeed, but he is worth it for his current price. There are very few NFL receivers with his physical talents, so I would much rather take a flyer on him. EBF mentioned guys like Hartline and Nate Washington, I would take DHB over those guys and players like them all day. DHB has the potential, if he ever puts it all together, to be a top 10 NFL WR just based on his physical gifts. While the chance of that ever happening is slim, his ceiling is much higher than the guys around him ranking wise. I would take the risk on that potential at the price he is commanding.

 
Unwrittenlaw said:
Too early to tell in my opinion. But, the odds are stacked against him.Ike Hilliard didn't flame out that quickly - had a decent career. Look at Reggie Wayne's rookie year also. Add Eric Moulds to the list.He could also be a bust like Williamson, David Terrell, Gardner and a huge number of 1st rd picks.
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It's not a production issue with Bey, it's skillset. He has no ability to catch a football. Wayne and Moulds could catch.
 
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good post, EBF... i had vaguely thought recently his value HAS to be low, and at some point, presents value.

especially in a start up draft (his owner's from last year likely will not want to give him away so soon after spending a 1st round pick).

after hearing him in interviews, he didn't seem to get down, which was good, but i'm not sure if i ever heard an acknowledgement that he realized he has trouble catching the ball (maybe it is unpleasant to admit)... there can be a difference between being positive and falsely confident. i wondered if he is like an alcoholic that can't get help or better until he admits he has a problem.

i read an article recently (sorry, no link - maybe PFT?), in which possibly an OAK WR positional coach was supportive in saying DHB was working hard to raise his skill level... than again, in an organization as dysfunctional as the raiders, maybe communication is distorted as it travels up... saying DHB had potentially catastrophic hands would be tantamount to criticizing davis.

imo, if DHB realizes and admits to himself his hands are brutal, he may committ himself with more urgency, spend more time, work harder, etc. catching the ball would seem to be a basic skill, and one amenable to getting better at with practice. i think for some WRs it is. a big unanswered question remains... if he has been unable to attain a higher level now that he is in his early 20s, does it offer much hope a few more years will make a big difference. the already mentioned troy williamson is a sobering cautionary tale.

but in the 70s, & likely earlier, how can EBF go wrong... not much spent if he ends up being a spectacular bust. there is upside if he gets things turned around.

scouting note - if anybody saw him play (not much to see, with just a few catches), or recalls "the book" on him coming out of maryland and his scouting profile can confirm or deny the following observations... he has exceptional straightline speed, but looks like he may not be special (top 10 overall in his class special) in terms of lateral agility & quickness, change of direction, cutting ability and elusiveness (he wasn't very productive at maryland, but that was excused as a system issue - i noticed even in his truncated highlight package, they mostly took the form of running straight down the field, maybe one cut - it was very hard to see clearly how well his skills would translate to the NFL, possibly a reason many scouts thought crabtree & even maclin were better picks there, making DHB an insane reach at that point, ONE OF the worst in years... obviously just because he had no business being picked there, doesn't mean he can't go on to have a good career, though imo odds stacked against him)... not just after the catch (because again, he wasn't afforded that opportunity often), but in basic route running ability. but it is a cliche that most rookie WRs aren't sophisticated route runners (with the ability to set up DBs, change speeds, not have tells & run the whole route tree the same, etc.)...

route running does seem to be an acquired skill that can be bettered with diligent practice... but fundamental differences in quickness, cutting ability, short areas burst, etc can possibly lead to variable results & upside... WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF PRACTICE.

* responding to a few posts...

anything is possible, not sure if DHB has top 10 upside... personally, even if things come together for him (it hasn't helped that russell struggled so mightily, and was wildly inaccurate at times, before being replaced... but i saw him drop more than a few that were easy catches), i think it would be lower, but maybe that is nitpicking.

also agree that murphy showed (a lot) more as a rookie, and other than raw track speed (having speed lust and being skill blind divorced from the functional context of playing football is al's tragic flaw), appears to be far more naturally gifted in WR skills... but DHB was such a high pick, i'd expect him (& schillens) to remain starter, at least in the short term. murphy could be a great long term hold, though... at some points, teams finally get exasperated and do give up on top 10 overall picks like terrell and williamson. at first, there is a powerful tendency to help high picks succeed... but at some point, if it chronically impedes the larger goal of winning, and with longer term failure to develop & improve, (also, with intervening time and several years worth of "newer" new players, the luster begins to wear off), organizational patience crosses over into impatience.

 
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The big difference for me with DHB and most of the WR's you listed would be targets.....I can't find it for most of there rookie years but I would bet that they had a better % than 9 for 40 and would say most did not see 40 targets in their rookie season...

 
Yitbos69 said:
The big difference for me with DHB and most of the WR's you listed would be targets.....I can't find it for most of there rookie years but I would bet that they had a better % than 9 for 40 and would say most did not see 40 targets in their rookie season...
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What's considered and not considered a target is very grey. Jamarcus Russell completed less than 50% passes, which suggests that his accuracy is not stellar, so if Russell throws it over DHB by a mile, or skips it to him on the ground, it is still considered a target. It was just a target that was not catchable. A target does not mean DHB should have caught the ball. DHB did of course have drops, and I am not removing the blame from DHB, but Russell's accruacy did not help the situation, and looking at targets is not entirely truthful.
 
fridayfrenzy said:
Yitbos69 said:
The big difference for me with DHB and most of the WR's you listed would be targets.....I can't find it for most of there rookie years but I would bet that they had a better % than 9 for 40 and would say most did not see 40 targets in their rookie season...
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What's considered and not considered a target is very grey. Jamarcus Russell completed less than 50% passes, which suggests that his accuracy is not stellar, so if Russell throws it over DHB by a mile, or skips it to him on the ground, it is still considered a target. It was just a target that was not catchable. A target does not mean DHB should have caught the ball. DHB did of course have drops, and I am not removing the blame from DHB, but Russell's accruacy did not help the situation, and looking at targets is not entirely truthful.
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my point is that DHB was on the field as a starting WR his rookie season.....that can not be said for the other WR listed by the OP
 
His situation is as bad as bad can be. Oakland is now where players go to die. I would pass.

 
Some good thoughts in here.

The Vernon Davis comparison is an interesting one. I saw plenty of Davis early in his career and I never thought he'd ever become a great NFL player. Forget all of the physical skills. He looked terrible. He couldn't catch the ball and he looked like an athlete trying to play football rather than a football player. Something clicked when Singletary came aboard. Now Davis is dominating. He's catching all the balls he used to drop. Maybe DHB can follow suit, but there's an important difference between these two guys: Davis had very good college production for a TE whereas DHB had mediocre production for a WR.

I agree that it's worse to get snaps and play poorly than to receive no snaps. Maybe guys like Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, and Chad Johnson would've dominated immediately if they had been given the opportunities that DHB received. It always concerns me when a player receives opportunities and fails to capitalize, but DHB was obviously rushed into action before he was ready and it's not as though he's the first rookie WR to look lost out there. Ask a Steelers fan about Plaxico's rookie year.

Regarding Chaz Schilens and Louis Murphy, color me unimpressed. Schilens has a big frame and reliable hands, but I don't think he's particularly fast or fluid despite his combine numbers. Murphy was more game ready than DHB entering the league, but I'm not overly impressed with upside either. Regardless of what happens to Heyward-Bey, I'll be surprised if either of these guys becomes an above average NFL starter. I don't see them as long term obstacles if DHB ends up becoming a good pro.

Will that happen? Probably not. I don't actually expect Heyward-Bey to succeed. I think there are football players and athletes masquerading as football players. I've found that players in the latter group rarely achieve success. Physical tools are vitally important for success at most NFL positions, but if the prospect lacks fundamental football skills then he's almost hopeless. That said, I think DHB could follow the Meachem career path and eventually become a useful player. They're similar prospects: late first round talents whose best asset is their combination of size and straight line speed. People are a lot more optimistic about Meachem today than they were after his rookie season. I think DHB could experience a similar renaissance, although I think it's just as likely that he'll remain the butt of jokes.

 
Yitbos69 said:
fridayfrenzy said:
Yitbos69 said:
The big difference for me with DHB and most of the WR's you listed would be targets.....I can't find it for most of there rookie years but I would bet that they had a better % than 9 for 40 and would say most did not see 40 targets in their rookie season...
Click to expand...
What's considered and not considered a target is very grey. Jamarcus Russell completed less than 50% passes, which suggests that his accuracy is not stellar, so if Russell throws it over DHB by a mile, or skips it to him on the ground, it is still considered a target. It was just a target that was not catchable. A target does not mean DHB should have caught the ball.

DHB did of course have drops, and I am not removing the blame from DHB, but Russell's accruacy did not help the situation, and looking at targets is not entirely truthful.
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my point is that DHB was on the field as a starting WR his rookie season.....that can not be said for the other WR listed by the OP
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The OP also pointed that out :thumbup:
 
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The only player I can think of who came into the league as a straight line burner/deep threat with bad hands that actually fixed his problem over time is Devery Henderson. He had terrible hands at first, but they over time they have gotten pretty darn reliable.

His coaches claim its because he would just catch thousands upon thousands of balls after practice/offseason etc. etc. over several seasons - but hey, it worked. Maybe if DHB was showing that kind of commitment I would buy in for a basement price......but I haven't seen or heard about him attempting anything like this.

Before the inevitable "But Troy Williamson did that too and it didn't help" people chime in - yes I know its not a sure thing. I'm just saying that it is possible, but only if the WR is actually putting in the crazy amount of work it takes.

Edit* Chaz Schilens is FAST. Not sure what you are looking at EBF.

 
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Didn't Meachem bust up his knee his rookie season and not even play a snap in the regular season? His 2nd year might be the better comparison, but that could also possibly be written off as still recovering from knee surgery. (But maybe I'm misremembering things.)

ETA: I don't see the comparison with DHB because I don't think DHB has any lingering health problems.

 
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thevidon said:
The only player I can think of who came into the league as a straight line burner/deep threat with bad hands that actually fixed his problem over time is Devery Henderson. He had terrible hands at first, but they over time they have gotten pretty darn reliable.

His coaches claim its because he would just catch thousands upon thousands of balls after practice/offseason etc. etc. over several seasons - but hey, it worked. Maybe if DHB was showing that kind of commitment I would buy in for a basement price......but I haven't seen or heard about him attempting anything like this.
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http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/02/1...made-great-stri
"Darrius made some great strides," wide receivers coach Sanjay Lal told PFW. "He really focuses on attention to detail. (He's a) very good route runner. He improved in all respects. He's a real student of the game. He could tell you what every position does at receiver. … (He has a) great work ethic. He worked on everything every day. He came and caught the ball extra before practice, after practice, between practices. He did everything we asked of him. He'll have a good future if he keeps doing that."
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Don Quixote said:
Didn't Meachem bust up his knee his rookie season and not even play a snap in the regular season? His 2nd year might be the better comparison, but that could also possibly be written off as still recovering from knee surgery. (But maybe I'm misremembering things.)ETA: I don't see the comparison with DHB because I don't think DHB has any lingering health problems.
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My memory is hazy on this one. I know he had some sort of knee trouble, but I don't think it was a serious injury like an ACL. I think he was healthy enough to play at some point during the season, but the coaches kept him off the field.
 
EBF said:
thevidon said:
The only player I can think of who came into the league as a straight line burner/deep threat with bad hands that actually fixed his problem over time is Devery Henderson. He had terrible hands at first, but they over time they have gotten pretty darn reliable.

His coaches claim its because he would just catch thousands upon thousands of balls after practice/offseason etc. etc. over several seasons - but hey, it worked. Maybe if DHB was showing that kind of commitment I would buy in for a basement price......but I haven't seen or heard about him attempting anything like this.
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http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/02/1...made-great-stri
"Darrius made some great strides," wide receivers coach Sanjay Lal told PFW. "He really focuses on attention to detail. (He's a) very good route runner. He improved in all respects. He's a real student of the game. He could tell you what every position does at receiver. … (He has a) great work ethic. He worked on everything every day. He came and caught the ball extra before practice, after practice, between practices. He did everything we asked of him. He'll have a good future if he keeps doing that."
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I did see that - but it's only talking about during the season. Who knows what he is doing in the offseason. Hopefully continuing to catch a ton of balls every day........but I haven't heard anything about it if that is happening (and you DID hear about it with Williamson in the offseason).

 
EBF said:
Robert Meachem - 0 catches, 0 yardsMiles Austin - 0 catches, 0 yardsSantana Moss - 2 catches, 40 yardsDonald Driver - 3 catches, 31 yardsVincent Jackson - 3 catches, 59 yardsPierre Garcon - 4 catches, 23 yardsJerricho Cotchery - 6 catches, 60 yardsSteve Smith (NYG) - 8 catches, 63 yardsSteve Smith (CAR) - 10 catches, 154 yardsDerrick Mason - 14 catches, 186 yardsTJ Houshmandzadeh - 22 catches, 228 yardsHines Ward - 15 catches, 246 yardsBrandon Marshall - 20 catches, 309 yardsPlaxico Burress - 22 catches, 273 yardsRoddy White - 29 catches, 446 yards
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Good post and I honestly don't think almost any player should be written off after one year, but when you look over this list, the common thread is that almost to a person, these guys had an above average -- and in some cases elite -- QB throwing them the ball. DHB may or may not have the skillset to be an elite NFL wr, but until he has a good QB throwing him the ball, we won't really know. Something else to consider is that many of the guys on the list did ride the pine for their first year or two, but that was actually a good thing, as they were in a great offensive system and being brought along slowly, but learning the right way. It's hard to say that about DHB -- you just have to worry that he's not being brought along correctly. Again, I agree with your main point which is that he shouldn't be written off, but I also think that he couldn't be in a worse situation. If he got drafted by Pittsburgh, he very well might have done what Mike Wallace did last year, and his whole career trajectory would look different, but as long as he's stuck in Oakland or until they get a decent QB in there, I think his upside is very limited.
 
EBF said:
Don Quixote said:
Didn't Meachem bust up his knee his rookie season and not even play a snap in the regular season? His 2nd year might be the better comparison, but that could also possibly be written off as still recovering from knee surgery. (But maybe I'm misremembering things.)

ETA: I don't see the comparison with DHB because I don't think DHB has any lingering health problems.
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My memory is hazy on this one. I know he had some sort of knee trouble, but I don't think it was a serious injury like an ACL. I think he was healthy enough to play at some point during the season, but the coaches kept him off the field.
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Ended up Googling. Meachem did have arthroscopic to clear out meniscus issue, and it sounds like he was limping most of his rookie season, which resulted in him not getting PT (even though not placed on IR), and he was really not all the way recovered until this year. So, I still think different from DHB's rookie year. I'm not saying that I don't think DHB can be successful (or even mediocre) some day, but I just don't think Meachem is a good compare.http://blog.nola.com/saintsbeat/2007/11/me...es_in_reco.html (2007 article)

http://blog.nola.com/saintsbeat/2009/05/sa...rt_meachem.html (2009 article)

 
He was a first round pick with great speed...so yeah, he still has a shot and is worth a flyer. If you can get him for almost nothing he is a buy low.

But I agree with someone else above who posted that he will need to supplant two guys who look better: Shillens and Murphy. I like both of them and think it will be difficult for DHB; of course, Oakland has millions of reasons to want to see DHB succeed, so he will no doubt get another shot. But I would rather bet on the other two guys.

 
SSOG said:
EBF, it seems that you feel about DHB the way that I feel about Darren McFadden.
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I think there's a bit of a difference between a RB who has received 217 career carries and a WR who has received 40 career targets. RB is not a complicated position. If someone isn't good immediately, there's a pretty good chance that he'll never be good. The same is probably true at WR, but I think most would agree that there's more of a learning curve at this position (hence the "3rd year breakout" thing). That said, I agree with the general sentiment of trying to discover elite talents who were prematurely written off as busts. It wasn't long ago that Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Roddy White, and Vernon Davis were considered failures. Because of personal development and changes in situation, all of them were able to become quality NFL starters. I don't think that fate is beyond the grasp of DHB, although I don't think it's a likely outcome. I still think he's more likely to fail than succeed. I just wonder if a guy with his physical tools and pedigree should really be falling out of the top 200 in dynasty startups this early in his career.
 
Louis Murphy is the guy to have from Oakland. That has been gone without saying since preseason of last year.

 
EBF said:
SSOG said:
EBF, it seems that you feel about DHB the way that I feel about Darren McFadden.
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I think there's a bit of a difference between a RB who has received 217 career carries and a WR who has received 40 career targets. RB is not a complicated position. If someone isn't good immediately, there's a pretty good chance that he'll never be good. The same is probably true at WR, but I think most would agree that there's more of a learning curve at this position (hence the "3rd year breakout" thing). That said, I agree with the general sentiment of trying to discover elite talents who were prematurely written off as busts. It wasn't long ago that Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Roddy White, and Vernon Davis were considered failures. Because of personal development and changes in situation, all of them were able to become quality NFL starters. I don't think that fate is beyond the grasp of DHB, although I don't think it's a likely outcome. I still think he's more likely to fail than succeed. I just wonder if a guy with his physical tools and pedigree should really be falling out of the top 200 in dynasty startups this early in his career.
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I there's a bit of a difference between an RB with 3.9 ypc on his first 200 carries and a WR with a 23% catch percentage on his first 40 targets, too. Sure, McFadden plays a position where players typically "get it" quicker... but he's also a LOT closer to "getting it" than DHB. He averaged 4.4 ypc his rookie year, remember. Plus, there are a lot of examples of first round RBs who averaged below 4.0 ypc on their first 200 carries and who still went on to be quality fantasy assets.
az_prof said:
SSOG said:
EBF, it seems that you feel about DHB the way that I feel about Darren McFadden.
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And I want to go on record as saying I don't like either of them long term.
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There's a difference between liking a player and liking a player at his current price. I don't think that McFadden is particularly likely to turn it around... but I think he's far more likely than his current price would suggest.
 
First off, I won DHB in a dynasty.

But I think the real problem with him ever being productive is his situation. On the right team, with the right staff and QB, he might eventually be WR38.

On the Raiders I am just not sure.

 
EBF said:
I just got him as WR72 (including rookies) in a 14 team PPR startup. He went at WR77 in my other draft. He's ranked at WR89 in the current FBG staff dynasty rankings, below such luminaries as Brian Hartline, Nate Washington, and Patrick Crayton. I'll be the first to acknowledge that Heyward-Bey looked dreadful in his rookie year, but isn't it a bit premature to bury his career after one terrible season?
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I don't know anything about your league, and perhaps you field teams so deep that Brian Hartline and Patrick Crayton are actually useful performers.In most leagues, however, Hartline, Washington, Crayton et al have literally zero value. They are instantly replaceable at the level of performance they're practically guaranteed to offer, and will probably never see meaningful time on your squad unless your squad is so decimated or helpless that who you start becomes irrelevant anyway.DHB, however, has far more value in those same scenarios. If Patrick Crayton opens the year with a shocking 100/1, he's still Patrick Crayton. He's a known commodity, and a boring one. If DHB does the same, he's a second year, former top ten pick with all universe athleticism who may have suddenly "got it." Probably not, but that's going to be the perception among some, you can be sure.Nate Washington can set NFL records in week one next year, and you'll still be lucky to move him for a top flight kicker. A decent-to-good start to the season for DHB, and he carries way more value than most of the guys rated anywhere near the same neighborhood.
 
It's not much but better than nothing I guess:

(Rotoworld) Coach Tom Cable insists that Darrius Heyward-Bey has already improved by "leaps and bounds" since the end of last season.Analysis: "You guys will be excited when you see us in OTA, the improvement Darrius has already made," Cable said. "That guy has jumped out at us since winter program, or offseason program, just the quality of work he's done." Cable made similar comments throughout training camp last summer, before DHB finished with nine catches in 11 games. We'll believe the improvement when we see it.
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Well, he has athletic ability and is a hard worker, so you have to keep an eye on him.

But he showed sooo little last year, it's tough to him becoming a fantasy starter.

 
EBF said:
griff321 said:
Troy Williamson
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Probably the most likely outcome, but not a certainty yet.
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If you can get him for peanuts, why not? If you are making a trade and need a throw-in player to make the number of players equal, why not ask for him? I agree that Troy Williamson is most likely outcome but with a new QB and more experience he could develop. I like Schillens as the featured WR in Oakland long term but you can't completely give up on a guy like DHB after one season for the same reason he was drafted in the first place: he does have some great physical ability.
 
I'd change my number and my name if I had a rookie season like he did. Darrius Ochocinco has a nice ring to it.

Darrius Heyward-Bey has changed his jersey number from 12 to 85, per the Raiders' Web Site. And, as custom, the soon-to-be-second-year receiver had to pay Reebok for the remaining inventory of his No. 12 jerseys, according to profootballtalk.com.

"I had to change it up for myself," DHB told Raiders.com. "It's a new year, new beginning for me and I just needed a change."

Behind the Shield online host Jeanette Thompson asked him why he picked No. 85.

"You go to sleep, you have your dream, you see a number in your head and you're like, you know what, I'm going to go with that," he said.

DHB wore No. 8 at Maryland and said 5 is actually his favorite number.

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/raide...l#ixzz0laYxnNbX
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ABSOLUTELY.

I've made a living in dynasty trading for highly regarded 1st round picks that didn't provide immediate returns for the team that drafted them. It's amazing to me how quickly many dynasty owners are willing to give up on these guys. Here's a couple of things to think about:

> High draft picks generally have more talent than those around them

> High draft picks are generally given more opportunities to succeed than those around them

I know that's obvious stuff, but I'd rather grab three first-year "busts" and hope one of them pans out than put my chips on three 3rd rounders. Chances are far better that one of those first rounders will work it out. In this type of situation, I'm never expecting any single individual to succeed, I'm just playing the odds.

I agree that he didn't look good last year, but I'll stash him and two other "busts" and feel good that one of them will work out. It all comes down to whether the price you can acquire him for is palatable for you. I'd offer a 3rd rounder for him in a heartbeat - maybe even a 2nd.

Have a look at my roster below - I bought low in trades on no fewer than 6 of them, and at least 3 were considered "busts" (Calvin, De'Angelo, AJ) by their owners when I acquired them. Rodgers I picked up off the waiver wire.

I'm targeting DHB this offseason.

 
Just when I'm finally about to write him off after the concussion, he goes 4 for 85 including a 59 yard catch.

I'm just hoping he gets cut this offseason (he's due $10.6M in 2013) and goes to a better situation.

 
Yikes. My team can't seem to catch a break with injuries this season, especially in the midst of their juicy matchups.

 
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