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Stephen Hill (WR) - CAR (1 Viewer)

Eminence

Footballguy
I know most people are hesitant on his value because of the Mark Sanchez / Tim Tebow predicament. But most people are ignoring the fact the Stephen Hill will likely 'never' be a complete receiver. They drafted him to fill the role Plaxico Burress and Braylon Edwards had the past couple of seasons. I know everyone is down on Sanchez's ability on as a passer but I believe value can be found.

In 2010, with Sanchez tossing the rock the combination of Edwards and Holmes put up:



53 Catches / 904 Yards / 7TD (Edwards)

52 Catches / 746 Yards / 6TD (Holmes)*

I'd say there is a definite chance New York could potentially foster 2 receivers with fantasy value. Braylon Edwards put up an astonishing 17.1YPC and I believe Hill fits that same mold; maybe even better. He isn't a a guy who will catch 100 balls in a season.

*Denotes that Holmes missed 4 games due to suspension.

In 2011, the combination of Burress and Holmes put up:

45 Catches / 612 Yards / 8TD (Burress)

51 Catches / 654 Yards / 8TD (Holmes)

7 of Burress' 8 Touchdowns came from within the RZ last season.

4 of Holmes' 8 Touchdowns came from within the RZ last season.

Those stats indicate that Sanchez preferred the big bodied Burress in the RZ last season. Stephen Hill stands tall at 6,4.

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Many people have concerns that the 'Tebow' package will stifle the overall production of Jets Offensive players but I disagree. I offer you Demaryius Thomas' stats last season coming off an injury:

32 Catches / 551 Yards / 4TD (Thomas)*

*Denotes that Thomas missed 5 games due to injury.

If we were to extend Thomas' stats over an entire season with Tebow he'd end up with.

46 Catches / 801 Yards / 6TD (Thomas)

Obviously not 'eye popping' numbers but any game Tebow got the ball to Thomas at least '3 times' the stats looked as follow:

3 Catches / 27 Yards / 1 Touchdown

4 Catches / 144 Yards / 2 Touchdowns

7 Catches / 78 Yards / 1 Touchdown

7 Catches / 116 Yards / 1 Touchdown

While it's true Tebow didn't pass much, when he did pass to Thomas they were 'BOOM' plays. Demaryius Thomas' YPC last season was a staggering 17.2. The best example of a 'BOOM' play is against the Steelers in the playoffs last year:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zuUIhv8z3M

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So why exactly does all of this bode well for Hill?

1.) Burress caught 7RZ Touchdowns last season and that production has to go elsewhere. I'd say the best bet to pick up some of that slack would be a 6,4 target picked up in the 2nd Round.

2.) Maybe Tebow vultures a few of those RZ Touchdowns but I don't think it's likely we'll see Sanchez being pulled at the Goaline consistently. And IF he is pulled, Tebow threw just as many TDs in the RZ as he ran for (6 a piece).

3.) Santonio Holmes is no slouch at receiver and will draw the coverage that will allow Sanchez and Tebow to exploit Hill's size + speed. He's being asked to be a complementary receiver.

4.) Like Demaryius Thomas, Hill comes from Georgia Tech where he was asked to block on a consistent basis. For a team that wants to get back to the 'ground and pound', receivers that can block well are a must. This will pave his way into the starting line-up.

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What should we realistically expect?

I'd be happy if Hill put up:

40 Catches / 650 Yards / 6TD

They are NOT flashy numbers but totally in-reach for this Rookie. His real value relies on the fact that:

1.) He will be a RZ target.

2.) He has 'BOOM' play capability.

This is the type of player that might put up goose eggs for you weeks in a row but will suddenly go off for:

4 Catches / 116 Yards / 2 Touchdown

As a Rookie he will be the PERFECT bye-week filler.

In redraft he will be had for peanuts and in Dynasty an early 2nd-Rounder will snag this kid. Regardless if he produces this year or not a 2nd-Rounder is a SMALL PRICE to pay considering the upside this kid has just off his measurables.

Grab him.

 
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I'm very intrigued by him. I also read this and thought it was interesting:

What no one realizes about Hill was that the only reason he committed to Georgia Tech was because they were one of the first teams to recruit him. He committed to Georgia Tech early (he's from Georgia) and once other teams started making him offers (Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, UNC, Tennessee) he refused to back out of his commitment with Georgia Tech. Had he went to one of those schools he may have been considered the best receiver in this class.

Hill is an interesting player because you look at him as a prospect and he's clearly the most gifted receiver in this draft, but it's hard for a team to justify him as a 1st round pick because of the scheme he played in and lack of opportunities. Quite honestly he probably couldn't play at full speed most of the time because he'd just outrun the throw Laughing. Then you look at teams who passed on him for another receiver (SF, STL) and you can understand why they did: San Fran isn't necessarily a deep passing offense and they wanted a guy who can line up all over the field, St. Louis is another team that doesn't run a deep passing offense and are in a position where they can't take a risk for a player like Hill.

Hill is the entire package. He's a freak athlete, he's smart, has a great personality, no glaring character concerns, is a hard worker

 
I'm very intrigued by him. I also read this and thought it was interesting:"What no one realizes about Hill was that the only reason he committed to Georgia Tech was because they were one of the first teams to recruit him. He committed to Georgia Tech early (he's from Georgia) and once other teams started making him offers (Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, UNC, Tennessee) he refused to back out of his commitment with Georgia Tech. Had he went to one of those schools he may have been considered the best receiver in this class.Hill is an interesting player because you look at him as a prospect and he's clearly the most gifted receiver in this draft, but it's hard for a team to justify him as a 1st round pick because of the scheme he played in and lack of opportunities. Quite honestly he probably couldn't play at full speed most of the time because he'd just outrun the throw Laughing. Then you look at teams who passed on him for another receiver (SF, STL) and you can understand why they did: San Fran isn't necessarily a deep passing offense and they wanted a guy who can line up all over the field, St. Louis is another team that doesn't run a deep passing offense and are in a position where they can't take a risk for a player like Hill.Hill is the entire package. He's a freak athlete, he's smart, has a great personality, no glaring character concerns, is a hard worker"Here is the link for thishttp://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=13980667
 
I'm not that high on him. He has incredible height, speed, and leaping ability, but there is more to playing WR than running in a straight line and jumping high. I think his combination of physical traits will make him a very dangerous deep threat. What I wonder is whether he'll ever be anything else. He's a bit gangly and awkward. Not that smooth laterally and doesn't appear to have the most reliable hands.

I can see why New York drafted him. His vertical speed will command respect and should help players like Holmes, Keller, and Kerley function underneath. However, I don't think Hill was the best WR on the board when the Jets took him and I'll be surprised if he ever becomes a complete #1. I don't think his FF value matches his NFL value. That said, he's certainly an interesting sleeper because of his workout numbers.

 
I can see why New York drafted him. His vertical speed will command respect and should help players like Holmes, Keller, and Kerley function underneath. However, I don't think Hill was the best WR on the board when the Jets took him and I'll be surprised if he ever becomes a complete #1. I don't think his FF value matches his NFL value. That said, he's certainly an interesting sleeper because of his workout numbers.
He's also a good blocker. I can't see him making a huge impact this season. Possible I guess but I think he's going to have a bit of a learning curve.
 
'finito said:
'EBF said:
I can see why New York drafted him. His vertical speed will command respect and should help players like Holmes, Keller, and Kerley function underneath. However, I don't think Hill was the best WR on the board when the Jets took him and I'll be surprised if he ever becomes a complete #1. I don't think his FF value matches his NFL value. That said, he's certainly an interesting sleeper because of his workout numbers.
He's also a good blocker.

I can't see him making a huge impact this season. Possible I guess but I think he's going to have a bit of a learning curve.
I honestly seeing him being more useful there than anywhere. He IS a good blocker and I think maybe the Jets selected him for that aspect as much as any other. THis team is sending a clear message: they want to run the ball. So they will..or at least try. And if they are sucessful, then the only guy I like on that WR corps is Holmes. One thiing the team can do is play-action effectively and Holmes has the kind of speed and moves to set up some play action.
 
'EBF said:
I'm not that high on him. He has incredible height, speed, and leaping ability, but there is more to playing WR than running in a straight line and jumping high. I think his combination of physical traits will make him a very dangerous deep threat. What I wonder is whether he'll ever be anything else. He's a bit gangly and awkward. Not that smooth laterally and doesn't appear to have the most reliable hands.

I can see why New York drafted him. His vertical speed will command respect and should help players like Holmes, Keller, and Kerley function underneath. However, I don't think Hill was the best WR on the board when the Jets took him and I'll be surprised if he ever becomes a complete #1. I don't think his FF value matches his NFL value. That said, he's certainly an interesting sleeper because of his workout numbers.
Certainly not a lot to watch from his college career. But, during the combine, particularly the gauntlet, the above is far from true.
 
He will have the worst and second worst QBs in the league throwing to him.
Hill is extremely young (just turned 21 a few days ago) and who knows who they will have at QB in a couple of years. I don't expect much in the short term though.
 
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He will have the worst and second worst QBs in the league throwing to him.
This is true....but Sparano is far more likely to open things up than Brain Schottenheimer ever did...that's not to say that Sparano is another offensive genius, but Scottenheimer was a corpse as an offensive coordinator...perhaps Sparano views Hill as another B. Marshall? He can't possibly consider Holmes as anything more than D. Bess in this offense, he is not a # 1 wr..and if Matt Moore can have some very productive games like he did for Sparano last season, maybe the same can happen for Sanchez..Tebow is a novelty I doubt he pushes for the starting job..Sanchez has loads of upside potential, he just needs to put it all together..But your point about these qbs is well taken..
 
IMHO I think they will broom the entire staff next year if this Tebow thing falls flat. I don't expect the Jets to reverse their downward spiral.

 
He can't catch.

This fact will be effectively disguised for a few years by quarterbacks who can't pass.
I think Hill's catching ability is quite an enigma given how few receptions he had. Sometimes he makes crazy/outstanding catches, sometimes he catches the ball properly with outstretched arms, sometimes he basket catches, and sometimes he drops the easiest of throws. Hill could REALLY benefit from some good NFL coaching; but the Jets haven't really developed any WRs from what I can remember, so I'm not so sure the Jets is the best place for Hill to have ended up.

 
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He can't catch.This fact will be effectively disguised for a few years by quarterbacks who can't pass.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VHFeehT0Rohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfALNRblfXk
with a catch radius like that, he may be able to make Sanchez look good as long as Mark doesn't throw into the turf
That's a fair point. Sanchez can get the ball in there and even deep - accuracy is a major issue and with a guy like Hill it may not be as big as deal.With that said, as a Jets fan I was less than thrilled with the pick.
 
He can't catch.

This fact will be effectively disguised for a few years by quarterbacks who can't pass.
He does have issues catching the ball. I wouldn't go so far as to say he "can't catch", but it's something he clearly needs to improve on big time if he's going to be successful, so I do think it's a valid point. It's an issue for him and if he doesn't get better he'll be a bust.
 
He can't catch.

This fact will be effectively disguised for a few years by quarterbacks who can't pass.
Wreck ... you and I have the benefit of having watched him regularly being GT guys ourselves. I have seen him "steal" catches from D-backs given some really poor throws. Many of his "drops" were also due to him playing D-back on some of those poor passes.

I've also seen him spring more than a few B-back sweeps for 30+ yard runs with solid blocks. He "can" be another Megatron if he bulks up, but he is defintely a healthier version of Dem. Thomas.

The only things limiting him being a monster in the NFL is his internal desire (which is not questioned), an OC willing to be creative, and the ability of a QB to "get him the ball". Granted D-backs in the NFL are better, but he will clearly make either Sanchez or Tebow better and not the other way around.

 
Intrigued very much by him and saw him twice in person 2 years Ago and thought he had ability.

It's just such a horrendous horrendous Situation for a receiver. I like the op's projection and short of a regime change hell never be more than a low end wr3 at best with the jets as constituted

 
He reminds me of Roy Williams more than Thomas or Johnson. Similar physique, athletic ability, and playing style. Even runs similarly.

Roy has been a very "meh" NFL performer for most of his career, though that doesn't necessarily mean the same fate awaits Hill.

 
He can't catch.

This fact will be effectively disguised for a few years by quarterbacks who can't pass.
The reason Terrell Owens was able to be successful despite having marginally bad hands is that he used the proper form to catch the ball every single time, that is going after the ball with outstretched arms instead of waiting for it to hit your chest. Stephen Hill hasn't displayed that tendency as from what I can see he waits for the ball to hit his chest on about half of all targets to him; the other half of the time he does use proper form, so it'll be Jets coaches job to get Hill to use the proper form 100% of the time instead of 50% of the time.
 
Frankly I think Tech has proven they put some pretty decent pros out at the WR position. Hill certainly looks the part.

 
'EBF said:
I'm not that high on him. He has incredible height, speed, and leaping ability, but there is more to playing WR than running in a straight line and jumping high. I think his combination of physical traits will make him a very dangerous deep threat. What I wonder is whether he'll ever be anything else. He's a bit gangly and awkward. Not that smooth laterally and doesn't appear to have the most reliable hands.

I can see why New York drafted him. His vertical speed will command respect and should help players like Holmes, Keller, and Kerley function underneath. However, I don't think Hill was the best WR on the board when the Jets took him and I'll be surprised if he ever becomes a complete #1. I don't think his FF value matches his NFL value. That said, he's certainly an interesting sleeper because of his workout numbers.
Not when Tebow is your QB!!!Perfect QB for Tebow. Go deep and get up and get the ball!

 
He "can" be another Megatron if he bulks up
Meth is a hell of a drug. You're comparing him to the best WR in the world. Seriously, I watched all those games too I don't think he's close to as good a WR as Bebe much less Calvin. Do you really think his eye/hand coordination is in the same range as Calvin's? The one benefit of the doubt I'll give Hill is that he played his entire career for Paul Johnson. Thomas got to spend two years in Chan Gailey's pro-style offense, so odds are that he was better coached as a WR early on.
 
Man if Kendall Wright is gone I just can't decide between Stephen Hill and Jeffrey??? Dang. I really like the upside of Hill but man its a shot in the dark on him. :confused:

 
Man if Kendall Wright is gone I just can't decide between Stephen Hill and Jeffrey??? Dang. I really like the upside of Hill but man its a shot in the dark on him. :confused:
I like Jeffrey by a good margin there. He's got a way better QB in Cutler. His upside is just as high as hills. Jeffrey's upside is Anquan Boldin. Hill is more like Sidney Rice I think.
 
Man if Kendall Wright is gone I just can't decide between Stephen Hill and Jeffrey??? Dang. I really like the upside of Hill but man its a shot in the dark on him. :confused:
Rueben Randle. :PAs for Jeffery vs. Hill, Alshon is a good player but can't run at all. That worries me big time. Can't think of many successful WRs who run as badly as he does.
 
from Greg Cosell on Twitter:

Greg Cosell ‏ @gregcosellMy guess is Hill not seen as laterally quick as D. Thomas when he came out of GT. Thomas a better overall athlete. Played bigger.
Greg Cosell ‏ @gregcosellHill was tough evaluation for me. Did not play as fast as timed speed. Limited route tree. Doesn't mean won't be good. Just didn't get feel.
 
Man if Kendall Wright is gone I just can't decide between Stephen Hill and Jeffrey??? Dang. I really like the upside of Hill but man its a shot in the dark on him. :confused:
Rueben Randle. :PAs for Jeffery vs. Hill, Alshon is a good player but can't run at all. That worries me big time. Can't think of many successful WRs who run as badly as he does.
:goodposting: from Greg Cosell on Twitter:
RE: Rams. Can only tell you what I would do based on my film study. I take Randle over Hill. They may se it differently. We'll see tonight.
Where will Jeffery go?. Size + hands. Wide catching radius, contested catches. Build up speed. Not quick laterally. Slow route runner.
Did not like way Jeffery moved on film but size, hands + ability to make contested catches will be intriguing to some teams. Function of use
 
Man if Kendall Wright is gone I just can't decide between Stephen Hill and Jeffrey??? Dang. I really like the upside of Hill but man its a shot in the dark on him. :confused:
Rueben Randle. :P As for Jeffery vs. Hill, Alshon is a good player but can't run at all. That worries me big time. Can't think of many successful WRs who run as badly as he does.
This depends on if the Bears are getting the lumbering 2011 Jeffery or
With his question marks he's a late 1st rookie pick but after the 2010 season he was being called a better WR than Blackmon AND Julio Jones. I think he's a serious buy low even with the risk since he went to a team with a QB to take advantage of his talents.

 
This is what we do know for certain:

1. 4.36 40 time.

2. 6' 4" , 215

3. 11'1" broad jump, a few inches short of a combine record.

4. 25 ft 8 3/4 inch long jump as a high school senior. Would have placed 9th in the Olympics with that jump as an 18 year old.

5. 39 inch vertical

6. Over 9 inch hands

7. Vinny Testaverde threw to him recently and called him a "stud".

8. The Jets traded up to get him.

9. Rex Ryan already said he will start.

10. Wore a suit to his interview and said this is "business" and his profession

11. Said he will give Jets fans something to "scream" about.

So he has freakish athletic ability, is already a starter, will be coached up, he appears to be a hard worker and has confidence.

What are the risks? That he doesn't ever get decent QB play? QBs change. They improve or another comes along eventually. Regimes change.

That he doesn't learn to run a route or how to catch in an optimal fashion? There is not a large enough body of work to even know if this is true. This can be trained and improved, via coaching, Juggs machine, etc.

I am sure there are a few more.

One thing you cannot train into a WR is how to run a 4.36 40 time, or a get 39 inch vertical and stick it on a 6' 4" 215 lb. body. You can't teach someone to be a good person and it very tough to teach someone how to have a work ethic.

I will take all of those incredible physical traits, add a positive attitude, enthusiasm and work ethic, include some coaching and see what happens with Hill. I am much more willing to do that than take a marginal athlete that is "pro-ready" and see if he can make it.

 
If football was all about combine numbers then Jerome Simpson would be a Pro Bowler.

There is a lot more to the sport than just running and jumping in shorts and a t-shirt. Not saying Hill won't become a good player, but raw physical measurables don't necessarily equate to football ability and/or upside. Roy Williams has better numbers on paper than Anquan Boldin. Doesn't make him the better player on the football field. Athletic ability is only one part of the equation.

 
I really hope he's not this guy:

Tyrone Calico

WR, Middle Tennessee

Height: 6036

Weight: 223

40 Yrd Dash: 4.34

20 Yrd Dash: 2.62

10 Yrd Dash: 1.63 225 Lb. Bench Reps:

Vertical Jump: 38

Broad Jump: 10'07"

20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.26

3-Cone Drill: 6.73
Besides always having a nagging injury, Calico had terrible hands and work ethic.He was also a Roy Williams victim.

 
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If football was all about combine numbers then Jerome Simpson would be a Pro Bowler. There is a lot more to the sport than just running and jumping in shorts and a t-shirt. Not saying Hill won't become a good player, but raw physical measurables don't necessarily equate to football ability and/or upside. Roy Williams has better numbers on paper than Anquan Boldin. Doesn't make him the better player on the football field. Athletic ability is only one part of the equation.
Yes, I never said that is all about his physical skills, just that those are 100% known and are not up for debate. Add his apparent work ethic, enthusiasm, opportunity to play and the odds favor him. We don't even know that enough about his football ability based on limited sample size to properly debate it. And we certainly know less than the Jets, who personally worked him out and deemed it necessary to trade up for him and immediately name him a starter. This stuff isn't as hard as pundits like to make it.
 
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