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ZWK's 2015 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)
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ZWK
Footballguy
Running Back update (previous post on RBs here)
I haven't updated any of the numbers in the spreadsheets, despite some new information (like pro days from Tevin Coleman & David Cobb), because I'm currently using a borrowed laptop while mine is in the shop so I can't easily re-run my formulas.
College Football Focus has put out their top 4 RB prospect ranking, along with a couple articles on their RB stats including their elusiveness rating and RB receiving & pass blocking. They have Gordon & Gurley 1-2, and then Abdullah & Ajayi a tier down at 3-4. I have the same top 4, and the same tiering, but I put Gurley ahead of Gordon and Ajayi ahead of Abdullah (based on my impressions of them - I believe the raw calculations by my formulas would agree exactly with CFF on the order). Gurley does extremely well by their stats - they have him first in elusiveness, by a lot - and I'm inclined to put him a mini-tier ahead of Gordon, neck-and-neck with Cooper for the overall #1 rookie spot. CFF has Gurley behind Gordon in their ranking primarily because of his ACL risk, but I think I'm more worried about the fact that Gordon doesn't have any elite physical attributes according to his combine numbers (size, speed, jumps, etc.). Gurley's positive buzz also seems to be on a different level from Gordon's.
CFF's pass blocking numbers match Abdullah's reputation as a poor pass blocker. That, plus his fumbling and lack of size (205 at the combine, 198 at the senior bowl), raise enough questions about his ability to carve out a big role for him to rank behind Ajayi in my eyes.
Tevin Coleman's pro day 40 is being reported as a 4.40 by nfldraftscout, which I think is enough to move him up to RB5 for me, just ahead of Duke Johnson. Coleman also does well in CFF's elusiveness stats, but I think that's less impressive than it looks at first glance because 1) his yards after contact per carry was padded by some long runs with early contact, which don't actually demonstrate that much elusiveness and 2) CFF says that a big chunk of his broken tackles came against weak competition. Duke Johnson actually ranks ahead of him in CFF's elusiveness rating against Power 5 opponents.
David Cobb's pro day 40 is being reported as a 4.73 by nfldraftscout, which is slow enough to be very concerning (especially because I had similar concerns watching him play). Some other sources are reporting it as being around 4.6, but it's hard to know what to make of those reports. There are also a couple of small pieces of bad news about Cobb from CFF, with him not making their top 10 in elusiveness rating and also ranking in their bottom 10 at pass blocking. I'm inclined to drop him down a tier below Coleman, Duke, and David Johnson, to RB8.
I haven't been that impressed by what I've seen of David Johnson's running, so he's pretty clearly behind Coleman & Duke Johnson, but he still slots in at #7 thanks to his size & speed & receiving.
Cameron Artis-Payne & TJ Yeldon don't look that good by my numbers, but they both made CFF's top 5 in elusiveness rating against Power 5 conferences. I currently see them as a cut above the rest of the field, rounding out my top 10 RBs.
Javorius Allen is one guy who I've been down on for a long time, and CFF just gave me one more reason to be down on him: apparently he's a bad pass blocker.
I've added color coding to the 2014 season / 2015 draft class in my RB stats spreadsheet & RB elusiveness spreadsheet. Green = good, red = bad, whiter = averager, and other than that the precise colors don't mean anything (the scale is actually set automatically by Google sheets, relative to other players that year on that statistic).
I haven't updated any of the numbers in the spreadsheets, despite some new information (like pro days from Tevin Coleman & David Cobb), because I'm currently using a borrowed laptop while mine is in the shop so I can't easily re-run my formulas.
College Football Focus has put out their top 4 RB prospect ranking, along with a couple articles on their RB stats including their elusiveness rating and RB receiving & pass blocking. They have Gordon & Gurley 1-2, and then Abdullah & Ajayi a tier down at 3-4. I have the same top 4, and the same tiering, but I put Gurley ahead of Gordon and Ajayi ahead of Abdullah (based on my impressions of them - I believe the raw calculations by my formulas would agree exactly with CFF on the order). Gurley does extremely well by their stats - they have him first in elusiveness, by a lot - and I'm inclined to put him a mini-tier ahead of Gordon, neck-and-neck with Cooper for the overall #1 rookie spot. CFF has Gurley behind Gordon in their ranking primarily because of his ACL risk, but I think I'm more worried about the fact that Gordon doesn't have any elite physical attributes according to his combine numbers (size, speed, jumps, etc.). Gurley's positive buzz also seems to be on a different level from Gordon's.
CFF's pass blocking numbers match Abdullah's reputation as a poor pass blocker. That, plus his fumbling and lack of size (205 at the combine, 198 at the senior bowl), raise enough questions about his ability to carve out a big role for him to rank behind Ajayi in my eyes.
Tevin Coleman's pro day 40 is being reported as a 4.40 by nfldraftscout, which I think is enough to move him up to RB5 for me, just ahead of Duke Johnson. Coleman also does well in CFF's elusiveness stats, but I think that's less impressive than it looks at first glance because 1) his yards after contact per carry was padded by some long runs with early contact, which don't actually demonstrate that much elusiveness and 2) CFF says that a big chunk of his broken tackles came against weak competition. Duke Johnson actually ranks ahead of him in CFF's elusiveness rating against Power 5 opponents.
David Cobb's pro day 40 is being reported as a 4.73 by nfldraftscout, which is slow enough to be very concerning (especially because I had similar concerns watching him play). Some other sources are reporting it as being around 4.6, but it's hard to know what to make of those reports. There are also a couple of small pieces of bad news about Cobb from CFF, with him not making their top 10 in elusiveness rating and also ranking in their bottom 10 at pass blocking. I'm inclined to drop him down a tier below Coleman, Duke, and David Johnson, to RB8.
I haven't been that impressed by what I've seen of David Johnson's running, so he's pretty clearly behind Coleman & Duke Johnson, but he still slots in at #7 thanks to his size & speed & receiving.
Cameron Artis-Payne & TJ Yeldon don't look that good by my numbers, but they both made CFF's top 5 in elusiveness rating against Power 5 conferences. I currently see them as a cut above the rest of the field, rounding out my top 10 RBs.
Javorius Allen is one guy who I've been down on for a long time, and CFF just gave me one more reason to be down on him: apparently he's a bad pass blocker.
ZWK
Footballguy
Cross-posted to the Brett Hundley thread:
Here are links to clips of every pass that Hundley threw 15+ yards downfield, in the four 2014 games that are on Draft Breakdown (Arizona, Utah, USC, Virginia), sorted by the length of the throw.
42 yards incomplete Arizona 3:21
41 yards incomplete USC 2:21
40 yards complete Arizona 6:04
40 yards incomplete Arizona 6:51
32 yards complete Virginia 0:01
31 yards intercepted Utah 4:27
31 yards incomplete USC 3:36
29 yards complete Utah 7:04
28 yards incomplete Virginia 5:24
25 yards incomplete Utah 6:54
25 yards complete USC 6:17
24 yards complete Utah 5:31
24 yards incomplete USC 4:52
23 yards complete Utah 1:45
19 yards incomplete USC 7:53
18 yards incomplete Virginia 3:33
18 yards complete USC 0:58
17 yards complete Utah 4:50
17 yards incomplete USC 7:33
16 yards complete Virginia 1:43
16 yards incomplete Virginia 7:22
16 yards incomplete Arizona 0:48
15 yards complete Virginia 5:11
15 yards incomplete Utah 0:53
15 yards complete USC 5:34
15 yards incomplete Arizona 0:33
15 yards complete Arizona 1:36
There are some nice throws in there (like the 29 yard completion against Utah at 7:04), but on the whole I'm not that impressed with him as a downfield passer.
Here are links to clips of every pass that Hundley threw 15+ yards downfield, in the four 2014 games that are on Draft Breakdown (Arizona, Utah, USC, Virginia), sorted by the length of the throw.
42 yards incomplete Arizona 3:21
41 yards incomplete USC 2:21
40 yards complete Arizona 6:04
40 yards incomplete Arizona 6:51
32 yards complete Virginia 0:01
31 yards intercepted Utah 4:27
31 yards incomplete USC 3:36
29 yards complete Utah 7:04
28 yards incomplete Virginia 5:24
25 yards incomplete Utah 6:54
25 yards complete USC 6:17
24 yards complete Utah 5:31
24 yards incomplete USC 4:52
23 yards complete Utah 1:45
19 yards incomplete USC 7:53
18 yards incomplete Virginia 3:33
18 yards complete USC 0:58
17 yards complete Utah 4:50
17 yards incomplete USC 7:33
16 yards complete Virginia 1:43
16 yards incomplete Virginia 7:22
16 yards incomplete Arizona 0:48
15 yards complete Virginia 5:11
15 yards incomplete Utah 0:53
15 yards complete USC 5:34
15 yards incomplete Arizona 0:33
15 yards complete Arizona 1:36
There are some nice throws in there (like the 29 yard completion against Utah at 7:04), but on the whole I'm not that impressed with him as a downfield passer.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here are links to clips of every pass that Mariota threw 15+ yards downfield against Arizona or Oregon State in 2014 (available thanks to Draft Breakdown), sorted by the length of the throw.
36 yards incomplete Arizona 1:55
34 yards incomplete Oregon State 0:22
33 yards incomplete Arizona 0:39
29 yards incomplete Arizona 1:32
29 yards complete Oregon State 3:15
29 yards incomplete Oregon State 7:06
28 yards complete Arizona 9:38
27 yards incomplete Arizona 4:31
26 yards complete Oregon State 10:00
25 yards incomplete Arizona 7:33
23 yards incomplete Oregon State 5:22
21 yards complete Oregon State 9:07
20 yards incomplete Arizona 6:21
20 yards complete Arizona 7:45
19 yards incomplete Arizona 8:52
19 yards incomplete Oregon State 7:39
19 yards complete Oregon State 0:41
18 yards incomplete Arizona 0:58
18 yards incomplete Arizona 1:20
17 yards complete Arizona 7:23
16 yards complete Oregon State 1:29
15 yards complete Oregon State 4:21
15 yards complete Oregon State 8:28
36 yards incomplete Arizona 1:55
34 yards incomplete Oregon State 0:22
33 yards incomplete Arizona 0:39
29 yards incomplete Arizona 1:32
29 yards complete Oregon State 3:15
29 yards incomplete Oregon State 7:06
28 yards complete Arizona 9:38
27 yards incomplete Arizona 4:31
26 yards complete Oregon State 10:00
25 yards incomplete Arizona 7:33
23 yards incomplete Oregon State 5:22
21 yards complete Oregon State 9:07
20 yards incomplete Arizona 6:21
20 yards complete Arizona 7:45
19 yards incomplete Arizona 8:52
19 yards incomplete Oregon State 7:39
19 yards complete Oregon State 0:41
18 yards incomplete Arizona 0:58
18 yards incomplete Arizona 1:20
17 yards complete Arizona 7:23
16 yards complete Oregon State 1:29
15 yards complete Oregon State 4:21
15 yards complete Oregon State 8:28
Donnybrook
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
Football Outsiders has posted their QB prospect ratings, based on the updated version of their projection system which they now call QBASE (formerly Lewin Career Forecast). They're high on Mariota & Hundley, and down on Winston, Grayson, and Petty. Winston & Petty are hurt by the fact that QBASE looks at the quarterback's last season, not his best season, and they both had their best season in 2013. Grayson & Petty are hurt by a weak strength of schedule, while Hundley gets a boost from facing a tough schedule with a weak supporting cast.
My current take, based on all the info out there, is that Mariota vs. Winston is a close call at the top, and then there is a huge gap between #2 and #3.
My current take, based on all the info out there, is that Mariota vs. Winston is a close call at the top, and then there is a huge gap between #2 and #3.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
My two cents:
If Mariota is in a zone read or a Shanahan-type roll out/bootleg system and has more sense than Griffin in terms of when to avoid a hit I think he'll be pretty good.
Wouldn't touch ANY of the other QBs in this draft. And would much rather have Garoppolo than Winston at half the price.
At RB I think Gurley's the real deal. Would be surprised if Gordon goes in the 1st or ends up being a big-time pro. Don't like anyone in the next tier, but would choose Yeldon or Abdullah if I had to. Mike Davis is underrated. LOVE Karlos Williams by the #s, but there are obviously a lot of off-field Qs. One deep deep deep guy I've literally never seen mentioned but I think might make a 53 and eventually do something is Kenneth Harper out of Temple. Really nice profile.
At WR I would stay away from most of the top guys given their price. With Cooper it's more that I don't understand him very well. I'm not sold on Parker, but I like him better than White by a lot. But again -- at their price I'll mostly be staying away. DBG is about as safe as it gets except, once again, for those pesky off-field things. Also too much uncertainty about Perriman for me to get on board. The history of players like Phillip Dorsett is nothing but a big pile of risk, but if he hits he'll hit big. Jaelen Strong has a nice mix of comps, but I'll defer to the NFL in his case -- they don't miss much with players like him. Algohor is a pure sell IMO. Tyler Lockett is borderline, but if he hits he'll also be a very good player. If Conley, Waller or Titus Davis get drafted earlier than expected (say 3rd round) I'll be buying in a big way. Smelter too, but the November injury makes it very hard to interpret his draft position.
At TE you can have them all. Maxx Wms will probably have a nice career, but for fantasy purposes I think he'll end up in that big low-end TE1 pile rather than be a guy who really helps you win.
If Mariota is in a zone read or a Shanahan-type roll out/bootleg system and has more sense than Griffin in terms of when to avoid a hit I think he'll be pretty good.
Wouldn't touch ANY of the other QBs in this draft. And would much rather have Garoppolo than Winston at half the price.
At RB I think Gurley's the real deal. Would be surprised if Gordon goes in the 1st or ends up being a big-time pro. Don't like anyone in the next tier, but would choose Yeldon or Abdullah if I had to. Mike Davis is underrated. LOVE Karlos Williams by the #s, but there are obviously a lot of off-field Qs. One deep deep deep guy I've literally never seen mentioned but I think might make a 53 and eventually do something is Kenneth Harper out of Temple. Really nice profile.
At WR I would stay away from most of the top guys given their price. With Cooper it's more that I don't understand him very well. I'm not sold on Parker, but I like him better than White by a lot. But again -- at their price I'll mostly be staying away. DBG is about as safe as it gets except, once again, for those pesky off-field things. Also too much uncertainty about Perriman for me to get on board. The history of players like Phillip Dorsett is nothing but a big pile of risk, but if he hits he'll hit big. Jaelen Strong has a nice mix of comps, but I'll defer to the NFL in his case -- they don't miss much with players like him. Algohor is a pure sell IMO. Tyler Lockett is borderline, but if he hits he'll also be a very good player. If Conley, Waller or Titus Davis get drafted earlier than expected (say 3rd round) I'll be buying in a big way. Smelter too, but the November injury makes it very hard to interpret his draft position.
At TE you can have them all. Maxx Wms will probably have a nice career, but for fantasy purposes I think he'll end up in that big low-end TE1 pile rather than be a guy who really helps you win.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here are my last pre-draft rankings, attempting to go by my independent impression (trying to ignore what everyone else thinks). My RB & WR rankings are based on a relatively systematic process, my QB & TE rankings not so much. My RB & QB rankings incorporate some of my impressions from watching game cutups, while my WR rankings are pure number-crunching (taken directly from this spreadsheet). These are pretty similar to what I've posted before, since not much has happened in the interim.
RB
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon
Jay Ajayi
Ameer Abdullah
Tevin Coleman
Duke Johnson
David Johnson
David Cobb
T.J. Yeldon
Cameron Artis-Payne
Karlos Williams
Josh Robinson
Corey Grant
Jeremy Langford
Mike Davis
Michael Dyer
WR
Amari Cooper
Devante Parker
Kevin White
Sammie Coates
Devin Smith
Breshad Perriman
Tyler Lockett
Philip Dorsett
Austin Hill
Nick Harwell
Nelson Agholor
Titus Davis
Devante Davis
Stefon Diggs
QB
Marcus Mariota
Jameis Winston
Bryce Petty
Garrett Grayson
Brett Hundley
TE
[none]
[none]
Mycole Pruitt
Maxx Williams
Clive Walford
Jeff Heuerman
If I was actually drafting today, then I'd draft players in a different order than this because I'd take into account other people's opinions, including other stats guys (Football Outsiders, CFF, wdcrob) and expert rankings. Arif Hasan has put together a consensus draft board which combines a whole bunch of experts' draft boards. Applying my generic rookie rankings formula to it gives the results in this spreadsheet. My actual draft list would basically be somewhere in between the rankings above and the rankings given by my generic projections. That includes: a large WR tier drop after WR3, Jaelen Strong & Dorial Green-Beckham among my top 8 WRs, Winston extremely close to Mariota, and Maxx Williams as the clear top TE.
My independent-impression rankings do give a good indication of who I'm likely to end up with in drafts. Good fantasy options right now (relative to consensus) look to be Gurley & Cooper at the top (though they're priced about right), Devante Parker typically available at #5, possibly Ajayi & Abdullah in the mid-late 1st round, Mariota in the 2nd (or wherever QBs make sense in your scoring system), and whichever WRs you can get in the late 2nd (probably Devin Smith & Tyler Lockett). In the late rounds, Austin Hill is a nice sleeper option, and so are DeAndre Smelter (not listed), Stefon Diggs, Karlos Williams, and Mycole Pruitt.
RB
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon
Jay Ajayi
Ameer Abdullah
Tevin Coleman
Duke Johnson
David Johnson
David Cobb
T.J. Yeldon
Cameron Artis-Payne
Karlos Williams
Josh Robinson
Corey Grant
Jeremy Langford
Mike Davis
Michael Dyer
WR
Amari Cooper
Devante Parker
Kevin White
Sammie Coates
Devin Smith
Breshad Perriman
Tyler Lockett
Philip Dorsett
Austin Hill
Nick Harwell
Nelson Agholor
Titus Davis
Devante Davis
Stefon Diggs
QB
Marcus Mariota
Jameis Winston
Bryce Petty
Garrett Grayson
Brett Hundley
TE
[none]
[none]
Mycole Pruitt
Maxx Williams
Clive Walford
Jeff Heuerman
If I was actually drafting today, then I'd draft players in a different order than this because I'd take into account other people's opinions, including other stats guys (Football Outsiders, CFF, wdcrob) and expert rankings. Arif Hasan has put together a consensus draft board which combines a whole bunch of experts' draft boards. Applying my generic rookie rankings formula to it gives the results in this spreadsheet. My actual draft list would basically be somewhere in between the rankings above and the rankings given by my generic projections. That includes: a large WR tier drop after WR3, Jaelen Strong & Dorial Green-Beckham among my top 8 WRs, Winston extremely close to Mariota, and Maxx Williams as the clear top TE.
My independent-impression rankings do give a good indication of who I'm likely to end up with in drafts. Good fantasy options right now (relative to consensus) look to be Gurley & Cooper at the top (though they're priced about right), Devante Parker typically available at #5, possibly Ajayi & Abdullah in the mid-late 1st round, Mariota in the 2nd (or wherever QBs make sense in your scoring system), and whichever WRs you can get in the late 2nd (probably Devin Smith & Tyler Lockett). In the late rounds, Austin Hill is a nice sleeper option, and so are DeAndre Smelter (not listed), Stefon Diggs, Karlos Williams, and Mycole Pruitt.
EBF
Footballguy
I still think he's a viable NFL talent, but it's gonna be a sweat as to whether or not he's drafted. He has A LOT going against him:
- over-aged
- modest production since 2011
- limited skills in the passing game
- low-value position
- character red flags
I don't know how to say this without being too mean, but I looked at his Twitter page and let's just say he doesn't strike me as the sharpest knife in the drawer. Add all of that stuff up and I just don't know that we're going to see a team commit a pick to him. It will come down to whether or not their RB coach/scouts bang the table hard enough in the 6th-7th round to take a punt on him.
Putting all that aside, I believe he has the requisite talent to stick on a roster if his head is in the game.
ZWK
Footballguy
Mostly chalk on day 1. The main news is a bit of reshuffling in that big tier of WRs after the top 3, with Agholor, Perriman, and Dorsett all going in the 1st to nice landing spots, and the rest of them still waiting.
I've put the first rounders into my generic rookie rankings calculator, which estimates career VBD based solely on draft spot & position using (slightly tweaked) historical data. In PPR they rank: Gurley, Gordon, Cooper, White, Winston, Parker, Agholor, Perriman, Mariota, Dorsett.
I've put the first rounders into my generic rookie rankings calculator, which estimates career VBD based solely on draft spot & position using (slightly tweaked) historical data. In PPR they rank: Gurley, Gordon, Cooper, White, Winston, Parker, Agholor, Perriman, Mariota, Dorsett.
ZWK
Footballguy
Two rounds in: RB Yeldon, WR Funchess, and TE Williams went higher than I had them. RB Ajayi, WR Coates, and WR Lockett are falling farther than where I had them. Jaelen Strong also falling, but I wasn't high on him to begin with.
Pretty much everyone has landed in a nice spot except for Devin Smith, who joins a crowded Jets receiving corps with no QB. Only 4 RBs off the board, despite 2 going in the first, which is further demonstration that RB value is down. Not surprised that round 2 was QB-free.
Generic rookie rankings are up through round 2.
Pretty much everyone has landed in a nice spot except for Devin Smith, who joins a crowded Jets receiving corps with no QB. Only 4 RBs off the board, despite 2 going in the first, which is further demonstration that RB value is down. Not surprised that round 2 was QB-free.
Generic rookie rankings are up through round 2.
ZWK
Footballguy
Through three rounds: RB Ajayi is the one big faller still on the board - I guess the knee issue is serious. Matt Jones is the biggest surprise pick - I'll have to take a closer look at him. My Coleman/Johnson/Johnson RB tier all went in the 3rd - I expect that Coleman will be overdrafted in dynasty drafts because of his ATL landing spot (which is a nice landing spot, but shouldn't vault him into the first round) and Duke Johnson could be underdrafted because people will worry about the crowded Cleveland backfield (crowded = full of mediocre/unproven competition).
Lockett, Strong, and Coates are all looking like solid fantasy options in the 2nd round of dynasty drafts. Some potential 3rd round value at TE as Walford & Heuerman landed in nice spots, although it could be a race against the clock for Heuerman in Denver as Manning's career winds down. Bad landing spots for TE Kroft in CIN (perhaps they see him as more of a blocker) and WR Conley in KC (perhaps they see him as more of a decoy). Some people were high on QB Hundley but he's still undrafted.
The generic rookie ranking leaderboard through 3 rounds (PPR):
RB Todd Gurley
RB Melvin Gordon
WR Amari Cooper
WR Kevin White
QB Jameis Winston
WR DeVante Parker
WR Nelson Agholor
WR Breshad Perriman
QB Marcus Mariota
WR Phillip Dorsett
RB T.J. Yeldon
WR Devin Smith
WR Dorial Green-Beckham
WR Devin Funchess
RB Ameer Abdullah
RB Tevin Coleman
RB Duke Johnson
RB David Johnson
WR Tyler Lockett
WR Jaelen Strong
RB Matt Jones
WR Chris Conley
WR Sammie Coates
(Ty Montgomery, Maxx Williams, and others left off because they're likely to get leapfrogged by 4th round RBs.)
Lockett, Strong, and Coates are all looking like solid fantasy options in the 2nd round of dynasty drafts. Some potential 3rd round value at TE as Walford & Heuerman landed in nice spots, although it could be a race against the clock for Heuerman in Denver as Manning's career winds down. Bad landing spots for TE Kroft in CIN (perhaps they see him as more of a blocker) and WR Conley in KC (perhaps they see him as more of a decoy). Some people were high on QB Hundley but he's still undrafted.
The generic rookie ranking leaderboard through 3 rounds (PPR):
RB Todd Gurley
RB Melvin Gordon
WR Amari Cooper
WR Kevin White
QB Jameis Winston
WR DeVante Parker
WR Nelson Agholor
WR Breshad Perriman
QB Marcus Mariota
WR Phillip Dorsett
RB T.J. Yeldon
WR Devin Smith
WR Dorial Green-Beckham
WR Devin Funchess
RB Ameer Abdullah
RB Tevin Coleman
RB Duke Johnson
RB David Johnson
WR Tyler Lockett
WR Jaelen Strong
RB Matt Jones
WR Chris Conley
WR Sammie Coates
(Ty Montgomery, Maxx Williams, and others left off because they're likely to get leapfrogged by 4th round RBs.)
ZWK
Footballguy
Langford, Davis, and Cobb look to be backup-quality RBs, but are in my "can't rule out" tier and have a little fantasy value. Cobb has a chance to be the next Shonn Greene, and to replace the earlier model & beat out Sankey. Most of the rd 4 WRs are low-upside slot guys, but Smelter does have upside (and Mayle to a lesser extent). After Coates, the next set of generic rookie rankings are:
RB Jeremy Langford
WR Ty Montgomery
TE Maxx Williams
TE Clive Walford
WR Jamison Crowder
TE Tyler Kroft
WR Justin Hardy
TE Jeff Heuerman
RB Javorius Allen
RB Mike Davis
WR Vince Mayle
RB David Cobb
WR DeAndre Smelter
TE Blake Bell
RB Jeremy Langford
WR Ty Montgomery
TE Maxx Williams
TE Clive Walford
WR Jamison Crowder
TE Tyler Kroft
WR Justin Hardy
TE Jeff Heuerman
RB Javorius Allen
RB Mike Davis
WR Vince Mayle
RB David Cobb
WR DeAndre Smelter
TE Blake Bell
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Nice work, looks good.
ZWK
Footballguy
Generic Rookie Rankings (PPR), based only on position and draft spot:
1 RB Todd Gurley
2 RB Melvin Gordon
3 WR Amari Cooper
4 WR Kevin White
5 QB Jameis Winston
6 WR DeVante Parker
7 WR Nelson Agholor
8 WR Breshad Perriman
9 QB Marcus Mariota
10 WR Phillip Dorsett
11 RB T.J. Yeldon
12 WR Devin Smith
13 WR Dorial Green-Beckham
14 WR Devin Funchess
15 RB Ameer Abdullah
16 RB Tevin Coleman
17 RB Duke Johnson
18 RB David Johnson
19 WR Tyler Lockett
20 WR Jaelen Strong
21 RB Matt Jones
22 WR Chris Conley
23 WR Sammie Coates
24 RB Jeremy Langford
25 WR Ty Montgomery
26 TE Maxx Williams
27 TE Clive Walford
28 WR Jamison Crowder
29 TE Tyler Kroft
30 WR Justin Hardy
31 TE Jeff Heuerman
32 RB Javorius Allen
33 RB Mike Davis
34 WR Vince Mayle
35 RB David Cobb
36 WR DeAndre Smelter
37 TE Blake Bell
38 RB Jay Ajayi
39 WR Rashad Greene
40 RB Karlos Williams
41 WR Stefon Diggs
42 QB Garrett Grayson
43 QB Sean Mannion
44 QB Bryce Petty
45 QB Brett Hundley
46 TE MyCole Pruitt
47 RB Cameron Artis-Payne
My actual top 20 will be pretty close to this, with just some slight adjustments (Cooper 2nd, Winston down a few spots, etc.). After that, there will be a lot more reshuffling.
1 RB Todd Gurley
2 RB Melvin Gordon
3 WR Amari Cooper
4 WR Kevin White
5 QB Jameis Winston
6 WR DeVante Parker
7 WR Nelson Agholor
8 WR Breshad Perriman
9 QB Marcus Mariota
10 WR Phillip Dorsett
11 RB T.J. Yeldon
12 WR Devin Smith
13 WR Dorial Green-Beckham
14 WR Devin Funchess
15 RB Ameer Abdullah
16 RB Tevin Coleman
17 RB Duke Johnson
18 RB David Johnson
19 WR Tyler Lockett
20 WR Jaelen Strong
21 RB Matt Jones
22 WR Chris Conley
23 WR Sammie Coates
24 RB Jeremy Langford
25 WR Ty Montgomery
26 TE Maxx Williams
27 TE Clive Walford
28 WR Jamison Crowder
29 TE Tyler Kroft
30 WR Justin Hardy
31 TE Jeff Heuerman
32 RB Javorius Allen
33 RB Mike Davis
34 WR Vince Mayle
35 RB David Cobb
36 WR DeAndre Smelter
37 TE Blake Bell
38 RB Jay Ajayi
39 WR Rashad Greene
40 RB Karlos Williams
41 WR Stefon Diggs
42 QB Garrett Grayson
43 QB Sean Mannion
44 QB Bryce Petty
45 QB Brett Hundley
46 TE MyCole Pruitt
47 RB Cameron Artis-Payne
My actual top 20 will be pretty close to this, with just some slight adjustments (Cooper 2nd, Winston down a few spots, etc.). After that, there will be a lot more reshuffling.
ZWK
Footballguy
First pass at my actual post-draft rankings (PPR). I'm going to need to take another look at Yeldon & Matt Jones, and hope for more info on why Strong & Ajayi fell.
1 RB Todd Gurley
2 WR Amari Cooper
3 RB Melvin Gordon
4 WR Kevin White
5 WR DeVante Parker
6 WR Nelson Agholor
7 WR Breshad Perriman
8 QB Marcus Mariota
9 QB Jameis Winston
10 WR Phillip Dorsett
11 WR Dorial Green-Beckham
12 RB Ameer Abdullah
13 RB T.J. Yeldon
14 RB Tevin Coleman
15 WR Devin Funchess
16 WR Devin Smith
17 RB Duke Johnson
18 WR Tyler Lockett
19 WR Jaelen Strong
20 RB David Johnson
21 TE Maxx Williams
22 WR Sammie Coates
23 RB Jeremy Langford
24 RB Jay Ajayi
25 RB Matt Jones
26 WR Chris Conley
27 RB David Cobb
28 TE Jeff Heuerman
29 WR DeAndre Smelter
30 TE Clive Walford
31 RB Mike Davis
32 WR Ty Montgomery
33 RB Karlos Williams
34 WR Stefon Diggs
35 RB Cameron Artis-Payne
36 RB Javorius Allen
37 WR Vince Mayle
38 TE MyCole Pruitt
39 WR Rashad Greene
40 WR Justin Hardy
41 WR Jamison Crowder
42 QB Sean Mannion
43 QB Bryce Petty
44 TE Tyler Kroft
45 QB Garrett Grayson
46 QB Brett Hundley
1 RB Todd Gurley
2 WR Amari Cooper
3 RB Melvin Gordon
4 WR Kevin White
5 WR DeVante Parker
6 WR Nelson Agholor
7 WR Breshad Perriman
8 QB Marcus Mariota
9 QB Jameis Winston
10 WR Phillip Dorsett
11 WR Dorial Green-Beckham
12 RB Ameer Abdullah
13 RB T.J. Yeldon
14 RB Tevin Coleman
15 WR Devin Funchess
16 WR Devin Smith
17 RB Duke Johnson
18 WR Tyler Lockett
19 WR Jaelen Strong
20 RB David Johnson
21 TE Maxx Williams
22 WR Sammie Coates
23 RB Jeremy Langford
24 RB Jay Ajayi
25 RB Matt Jones
26 WR Chris Conley
27 RB David Cobb
28 TE Jeff Heuerman
29 WR DeAndre Smelter
30 TE Clive Walford
31 RB Mike Davis
32 WR Ty Montgomery
33 RB Karlos Williams
34 WR Stefon Diggs
35 RB Cameron Artis-Payne
36 RB Javorius Allen
37 WR Vince Mayle
38 TE MyCole Pruitt
39 WR Rashad Greene
40 WR Justin Hardy
41 WR Jamison Crowder
42 QB Sean Mannion
43 QB Bryce Petty
44 TE Tyler Kroft
45 QB Garrett Grayson
46 QB Brett Hundley
ZWK
Footballguy
I'll add RB Josh Robinson, WR Tre McBride, WR Darren Waller, and WR Kenny Bell on there to round out a top 50, although in standard-sized leagues (250ish position players rostered) the rosterable waterline is probably in the Ty Montgomery tier.
Here are landing spots for some notable UDFA (more in this thread and even more at Walter Football):
JAC - RB Corey Grant (Auburn)
??? - RB Michael Dyer (Louisville)
SEA - WR Austin Hill (Arizona)
DAL - WR Nick Harwell (Kansas)
SD - WR Titus Davis (Central Michigan)
PHI - WR Devante Davis (UNLV)
PHI - WR John Harris (Texas)
DAL - WR Antwan Goodley (Baylor)
Here are landing spots for some notable UDFA (more in this thread and even more at Walter Football):
JAC - RB Corey Grant (Auburn)
??? - RB Michael Dyer (Louisville)
SEA - WR Austin Hill (Arizona)
DAL - WR Nick Harwell (Kansas)
SD - WR Titus Davis (Central Michigan)
PHI - WR Devante Davis (UNLV)
PHI - WR John Harris (Texas)
DAL - WR Antwan Goodley (Baylor)
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Austin Hill in Arizona is interesting. He showed a lot of promise before his injury. Completely blocked right now by Fitz, Brown and Floyd but a guy worth keeping tabs on I think.
ZWK
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Read that wrong.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Greene over Conley ?
I'll take Conley by a wide margin. Rashad Greene is a slot receiver for JAX, nothing more.
Conley is a physical freak who could breakout bigtime in the NFL. KC is not the best landing place, but I think it's Conley hands down
over all the WRs you listed.
