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Dynasty 1.01 Chaos - The big "IF" (1 Viewer)

Soulfly3

Soulfly3

Footballguy
My favorite time of year.

Here is a hypothetical situation, which may very well come to fruition... While I have mentioned that it is probably unlikely, none of us can ever say anything is impossible with Belichick... Even our forum Pats superfan RunItUp agrees...

If come April 30, the New England Patriots select Dorial Green Beckham with their 1st pick.... Does he automatically become the #1 wr off the board in dynasty (and in all likelihood, the #1 overall)???

Let's not get into the whole "NE has never taken a WR w BB as coach in the 1st...." and let's just assume it happens.

Think this could make some seriously fun debate

 
The Patriot success with the WR's they have selected would be a major concern. Add in the likelihood that DGB would be in his prime after Tom Brady leaves and I just don't see many taking him 1.01. Not to mention his off the field issues and using the top pick in dynasty on him just doesn't make much sense.

 
trader jake said:
The Patriot success with the WR's they have selected would be a major concern. Add in the likelihood that DGB would be in his prime after Tom Brady leaves and I just don't see many taking him 1.01. Not to mention his off the field issues and using the top pick in dynasty on him just doesn't make much sense.
Click to expand...
new rules....

big body WRs like evans and k benjamin putting up huge first seasons w crap to mediocre QBs.

something to keep in mind

 
Soulfly3 said:
trader jake said:
The Patriot success with the WR's they have selected would be a major concern. Add in the likelihood that DGB would be in his prime after Tom Brady leaves and I just don't see many taking him 1.01. Not to mention his off the field issues and using the top pick in dynasty on him just doesn't make much sense.
Click to expand...
new rules....

big body WRs like evans and k benjamin putting up huge first seasons w crap to mediocre QBs.

something to keep in mind
Click to expand...
Agreed with the point overall. It seems unlikely in New England though. Even some veterans have struggled to adjust to the Patriot offense, Gronk dominates red zone looks, and the team spreads the non-Gronk TD's around anyway. All of this assumes he keeps his head on straight.Overall I just don't see DGB going 1.01 regardless of the team he lands with and the Patriots wouldn't be among the top 10 landing spots anyway. Frankly, I don't see him going top 5 in almost any drafts. Just my 2 cents.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Not even close.

Still behind gordon, Gurley, Cooper, white, and probably Parker.
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I honestly think gordon and gurley have lost their lustre (unless they land in PRIME spots), and I really like gordon.

I also agree at least 2 of those WRs should go ahead.... but if he lands in NE, I mean... the potential is limitless.

 
Hankmoody said:
I don't get your infatuation with NE. That's not even a top landing spot for him IMO.
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could be the lack of a true elite, big bodied WR, the GOAT qb and a coach who takes risks that pay off...

I dunno.

(eta: I am not a NE fan. at all... but I am a max fantasy point fan)

 
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I'm not feeling the DGB. Looks like David Boston, smells like this year's Josh Gordon...'boom or busted'. Seems like you have to factor in some missed games at a minimum, missed season (or worse) at worst.

Also, I would not think NE is a team that's going to blindly feed a WR1 type. I remember Randy Moss, too, but I think they had nothing else that year. I'd think there are much better landing spots for a prospective WR1.

If you are going WR, I think Kevin White's the pick, then Cooper, Parker. I'd assume Gordon and Gurley would be in the top 5 also.

Just my opinion, but I'm not touching DGB until the mid-late 1st, and that could change depending on landing spots of some of these other RB & WRs.

 
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identikit said:
DGB to Indy would be a better topic.
Click to expand...
Yes, could have been GB, IND, NO... anyone with an elite top tier QB

went NE only due to no WR is that realm, and a coach who (I believe) would take that risk in rnd 1.

But sure... let's add in IND, GB, whatever... any team w an elite QB... does he become #1 if guys like white and cooper end up in stl, oak, cle etc?

 
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identikit said:
DGB to Indy would be a better topic.
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Yes, Luck will be around much longer than Brady but you still have Wayne, Hilton, Moncrief. Apparently, Soulfly feels like there is a big void in NE. I agree they lack a big name WR but they make it work with the Edelmans, Amendolas and Lafells of the world. I don't mean that in a bad way either...

I have a hard time thinking DGB will overtake Cooper simply on landing spot (at least, not on my board).

 
DropKick said:
identikit said:
DGB to Indy would be a better topic.
Click to expand...
I have a hard time thinking DGB will overtake Cooper simply on landing spot (at least, not on my board).
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tbf, Ive publicly stated that my 1/2 is White and then cooper (and has been since October)...

But I can say that I love me some dgb, and if he lands in a heavenly spot, I dont know if Id be able to pass. Lukcily I dont have the no1 pick, but I do have no2 now.

but that's not what the thread is about.. just #1

 
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Im probably gonna head to bed soon, so now is as good a time as any to throw this tidbit in, and part of why I started this thread...

2010 - Demariyus Thomas was chosen before Dez Bryant in the NFL draft...

Come rookie draft time, ADP data shows Dez was the 1.02 pick and DT was 1.05

Dez was every bit the bad boy DGB was, and maybe moreso.... Just some food for thought.

 
Black said:
I'm not feeling the DGB. Looks like David Boston, smells like this year's Josh Gordon...'boom or busted'. Seems like you have to factor in some missed games at a minimum, missed season (or worse) at worst.

Also, I would not think NE is a team that's going to blindly feed a WR1 type. I remember Randy Moss, too, but I think they had nothing else that year. I'd think there are much better landing spots for a prospective WR1.
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We all know what smell that is :P

On the second bolded, I'm pretty sure Welker caught 100+ passes in both of Randy's big seasons in NE. Just saying Edelman being there catching 9 passes a game doesn't mean there couldn't be passes for a true WR1 type.

To answer the OP, I'd be all over DGB if he were in a prime situation, and Cooper/ White were in a little less than good sitation.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Im probably gonna head to bed soon, so now is as good a time as any to throw this tidbit in, and part of why I started this thread...

2010 - Demariyus Thomas was chosen before Dez Bryant in the NFL draft...

Come rookie draft time, ADP data shows Dez was the 1.02 pick and DT was 1.05

Dez was every bit the bad boy DGB was, and maybe moreso.... Just some food for thought.
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Dez was the higher rated player by 95% of FFers coming into the draft, and their draft spot was only a couple of spots apart.

Pretty different scenario than one where 95% of FFers have DGB lower coming into the draft and their draft spot is 25 picks apart.

Indy would be interesting, but NE is not some great situation.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Im probably gonna head to bed soon, so now is as good a time as any to throw this tidbit in, and part of why I started this thread...

2010 - Demariyus Thomas was chosen before Dez Bryant in the NFL draft...

Come rookie draft time, ADP data shows Dez was the 1.02 pick and DT was 1.05

Dez was every bit the bad boy DGB was, and maybe moreso.... Just some food for thought.
Click to expand...
I don't think hanging out with Deion Sanders makes someone as much of a bad boy as knocking down a girl's door to her apartment and throwing a woman down a flight of stairs. Way too broad of a brush to put Dez and DGB under the same "character issues" label.

 
Chase Stuart said:
Soulfly3 said:
Im probably gonna head to bed soon, so now is as good a time as any to throw this tidbit in, and part of why I started this thread...

2010 - Demariyus Thomas was chosen before Dez Bryant in the NFL draft...

Come rookie draft time, ADP data shows Dez was the 1.02 pick and DT was 1.05

Dez was every bit the bad boy DGB was, and maybe moreso.... Just some food for thought.
Click to expand...
I don't think hanging out with Deion Sanders makes someone as much of a bad boy as knocking down a girl's door to her apartment and throwing a woman down a flight of stairs. Way too broad of a brush to put Dez and DGB under the same "character issues" label.
Click to expand...
Didnt Dez slap his own mother?

eta: getting suspended from college for smoking a joint is every bit as ludicrous as getting popped for training w Deion.

neither one scares me... I firmly believe at least 80% of the league smokes weed.

 
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Benjamin and Evans were both the best players on offense their rookie season almost though and the teams sucked so they could target the rookie.

Any of the top QB teams Indy, GB, NE are not going to be riding a rookie to sucess but Indy is the best landing spot for quick turnaround.

By end of year 3 both Manning and Brady are likely retired if not sooner so you will have a Larry Fitzgerald issue on your hands long term and possibly even short term.

 
NE, who is known for having one of the most complex offensive schemes for WRs in no way seems like a good landing spot for DGB.

The answer to this is no pretty emphatically. No way a guy drafted in the back quarter of the draft vaults over guys drafted in the top quarter of it. Especially when nobody has him above those guy currently.

 
Soulfly3 said:
identikit said:
DGB to Indy would be a better topic.
Click to expand...
Yes, could have been GB, IND, NO... anyone with an elite top tier QB

went NE only due to no WR is that realm, and a coach who (I believe) would take that risk in rnd 1.

But sure... let's add in IND, GB, whatever... any team w an elite QB... does he become #1 if guys like white and cooper end up in stl, oak, cle etc?
Click to expand...
If you are adding in other teams, I think it changes the complexion in regards to #1 overall. When you mention NE, people are worried about attitude/behavior (like any spot he would land), and the idea of an aging QB. For example, would you be equally bullish about his going to NO? The similarities between NE and NO are eerily similar, in that you have a great, established QB, elite TE and possession WR (Cooks/Edelman) in place already, without the true #1 WR. Yes, I would bump him to #1 possibly, if Cooper and White go to the places you mentioned (add in my Jets). I would actually be wary of places like Indy and GB as they spread the ball, and have solid WR projects already in the wings. To me, I think NO is a better landing spot than NE for him. Payton and company are woefully loyal to their players on offense (think of how long Meachem (twice) and Devery Henderson received opportunity after opportunity). Belicheck has shown he has little patience and will replace you in a heart beat.

 
This is a fun topic to consider.

To answer though, I think the short answer is no because, whether right or wrong, I think it will be DIFFICULT to pass on one of the better RBs if they land in a prime spot.

And I say this as a guy who firmly believes in elite Wrs as THE point of emphasis in dynasty. But with that being said, even though its much shorter-term and all other factors, I think a RB even if its not the two "G's" everyone loves, could be the better play.

In my opinion, I think the most likely player for that to happen with is Yeldon. I see him in a situation (not player likeness) as Eddie Lacy. No one is drooling over him like they are Gurley and Gordon but at the end of the day, should Yeldon find himself in that perfect spot, wherever that is, on a good team or a team that will just feature him heavily, I think for fantasy purposes, his value soars.

Something in my gut thinks that Yeldon in Jacksonville might be a good fantasy thing waiting to happen.

But overall, I think we have been to these rodeos enough times to know what is going to happen. There are certain spots in the NFL currently that will bolster or throw some dirt on draft stock. ANY WR that finds himself in Indy, regardless of their current makeup, will rise. Nothing wrong with it. A particular type of WR in San Diego or somewhere might do the same thing.

 
Soulfly3 said:
My favorite time of year.

Here is a hypothetical situation, which may very well come to fruition... While I have mentioned that it is probably unlikely, none of us can ever say anything is impossible with Belichick... Even our forum Pats superfan RunItUp agrees...

If come April 30, the New England Patriots select Dorial Green Beckham with their 1st pick.... Does he automatically become the #1 wr off the board in dynasty (and in all likelihood, the #1 overall)???

Let's not get into the whole "NE has never taken a WR w BB as coach in the 1st...." and let's just assume it happens.

Think this could make some seriously fun debate
Click to expand...
No. His character issues remain. Keeps him out of the first round for me no matter the landing spot. Signed....Josh Gordon ex-bandwagoneer.

 
Sabertooth said:
No. His character issues remain. Keeps him out of the first round for me no matter the landing spot. Signed....Josh Gordon ex-bandwagoneer.
Click to expand...
We'll see. I see both sides of the coin here.

I personally think his talent is too immense to drop outta the first. But I wouldnt be blown away if he went to the second based on worries and Gordon

 
Soulfly3 said:
Chase Stuart said:
Soulfly3 said:
Im probably gonna head to bed soon, so now is as good a time as any to throw this tidbit in, and part of why I started this thread...

2010 - Demariyus Thomas was chosen before Dez Bryant in the NFL draft...

Come rookie draft time, ADP data shows Dez was the 1.02 pick and DT was 1.05

Dez was every bit the bad boy DGB was, and maybe moreso.... Just some food for thought.
Click to expand...
I don't think hanging out with Deion Sanders makes someone as much of a bad boy as knocking down a girl's door to her apartment and throwing a woman down a flight of stairs. Way too broad of a brush to put Dez and DGB under the same "character issues" label.
Click to expand...
Didnt Dez slap his own mother?

eta: getting suspended from college for smoking a joint is every bit as ludicrous as getting popped for training w Deion.

neither one scares me... I firmly believe at least 80% of the league smokes weed.
Click to expand...
The incident with Dez and his mother came when he was in the NFL already. I don't see how this can be ignored: http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10766008/no-arrest-case-involving-dorial-green-beckham-missouri-tigers

I don't think smoking a joint is a big deal, either, although it is certainly more of a red flag than training with Deion Sanders. You can actually get suspended in the NFL for that one.

 
The new drug rules in the NFL may benefit DGB, in a big way

Guy basically gets 4 strikes til he's in Gordonville.

 
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I would be utterly shocked if New England took DGB. He doesn't fit their draft profile. Is he even capable of learning their playbook?

 
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jtd13 said:
Black said:
I'm not feeling the DGB. Looks like David Boston, smells like this year's Josh Gordon...'boom or busted'. Seems like you have to factor in some missed games at a minimum, missed season (or worse) at worst.

Also, I would not think NE is a team that's going to blindly feed a WR1 type. I remember Randy Moss, too, but I think they had nothing else that year. I'd think there are much better landing spots for a prospective WR1.
Click to expand...
We all know what smell that is :P

On the second bolded, I'm pretty sure Welker caught 100+ passes in both of Randy's big seasons in NE. Just saying Edelman being there catching 9 passes a game doesn't mean there couldn't be passes for a true WR1 type.

To answer the OP, I'd be all over DGB if he were in a prime situation, and Cooper/ White were in a little less than good sitation.
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You're forgetting a huge variable - Gronk.

 
A little bird told me he is picked by the Ravens or Seahawks (birds, get it?) before the Pats' pick anyway.

eta -- actually, scratch the Ravens. After the Ray Rice incident I don't think they'd dare take this guy.

 
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Soulfly3 said:
Sabertooth said:
No. His character issues remain. Keeps him out of the first round for me no matter the landing spot. Signed....Josh Gordon ex-bandwagoneer.
Click to expand...
We'll see. I see both sides of the coin here.

I personally think his talent is too immense to drop outta the first. But I wouldnt be blown away if he went to the second based on worries and Gordon
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You obviously don't put much stock in character issues. For every Randy Moss there is a Josh Gordon though. It's a real concern. I'm perfectly happy to fill my team with guys like Jordy Nelson and Calvin Johnson instead of Dez Bryant and Josh Gordon. The problem with character guys is you never know when it's going to rear its ugly head. No DGB for me thanks. Maybe in the second round but even then it'd be just to hope he hits and then move him.

Dez has really shocked me that he was able to get himself under control. But he's still a ticking timebomb.

 
Sabertooth said:
Soulfly3 said:
The new drug rules in the NFL may benefit DGB, in a big way

Guy basically gets 4 strikes til he's in Gordonville.
Click to expand...
So like, October then are we thinking? He'll probably get one or two before camp.
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Again, I get the standoffishness due to character concerns... If you're that kind of drafter. I'm not.

Here's the thing... are you really going to pass on elite talent and otherworld physique for "alter boys"? I get taking 2-3 WRs ahead of him, but how far are "character counts" guys letting him slide? This is a question both for dynasty and real NFL.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Sabertooth said:
Soulfly3 said:
The new drug rules in the NFL may benefit DGB, in a big way

Guy basically gets 4 strikes til he's in Gordonville.
Click to expand...
So like, October then are we thinking? He'll probably get one or two before camp.
Click to expand...
Again, I get the standoffishness due to character concerns... If you're that kind of drafter. I'm not.

Here's the thing... are you really going to pass on elite talent and otherworld physique for "alter boys"? I get taking 2-3 WRs ahead of him, but how far are "character counts" guys letting him slide? This is a question both for dynasty and real NFL.
Click to expand...
Let's be clear. Guys bust, and guys with character issues bust more often because of the character issues. It's not just failed drug tests, it can be lots of ramifications of immaturity, from domestic abuse to not working hard enough at his craft to cut it at this level a la Manziel to flakiness in making meetings and practices to lots of things. Talent, physique, those are just words unless they translate to production on the football field at the NFL level. You don't need to insult the guys with less natural ability who succeed with damn hard work by calling them altar boys. There are a lot of 'elite talent' guys who never amounted to anything, and a lot of so called 'altar boys' who made it to the HoF.

 
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Bruce Hammond said:
Soulfly3 said:
Sabertooth said:
Soulfly3 said:
The new drug rules in the NFL may benefit DGB, in a big way

Guy basically gets 4 strikes til he's in Gordonville.
Click to expand...
So like, October then are we thinking? He'll probably get one or two before camp.
Click to expand...
Again, I get the standoffishness due to character concerns... If you're that kind of drafter. I'm not.

Here's the thing... are you really going to pass on elite talent and otherworld physique for "alter boys"? I get taking 2-3 WRs ahead of him, but how far are "character counts" guys letting him slide? This is a question both for dynasty and real NFL.
Click to expand...
Let's be clear. Guys bust, and guys with character issues bust more often because of the character issues. It's not just failed drug tests, it can be lots of ramifications of immaturity, from domestic abuse to not working hard enough at his craft to cut it at this level a la Manziel to flakiness in making meetings and practices to lots of things. Talent, physique, those are just words unless they translate to production on the football field at the NFL level. You don't need to insult the guys with less natural ability who succeed with damn hard work by calling them alter boys. There are a lot of 'elite talent' guys who never amounted to anything, and a lot of so called 'choir boys' who made it to the HoF.
Click to expand...
I'm not insulting. Im asking a question. The draft is upcoming (the real AND fantasy)

So the question is, do you (GMs and fantasy owners) take the squeaky clean guys with less natural talent and hope they turn out to be gems, or do you take the charcter flawed guy with elite measurables and hope he doesnt implode?

Yes, guys of all statures and characters bust - But generally, and I dont think Im wrong here, the guys who are current showhorses, get drafted early. Right or wrong.

And yes, despite a year off, it's clear as day DGB is still a showhorse... He ranks from anywhere between #1 to #4 for this year's WRs by the draft guys

 
We don't know he's an elite level talent. We suspect he has a good chance to develop into an elite talent but there is no guarantee.

And looking at the top 20 fantasy receivers we see very few that are in DGB's size profile.

Dorial Green-Beckham 6'5" 237

1. Antonio Brown 5'10" 186

2. Demaryius Thomas 6'3" 229

3. Jordy Nelson 6'3" 217

4. Dez Bryant 6'2" 220

5. Emmanuel Sanders 5'11" 180

6. Julio Jones 6'3" 220

7. Odell Beckham 5'11" 198

8. Randall Cobb 5'10" 192

9. Jeremy Maclin 6'0" 198

10. Alshon Jeffrey 6'3" 215

11. Golden Tate 5'10" 202

12. TY Hilton 5'9" 198

13. Mike Evans 6'6" 231

14. DeAndre Hopkins 6'1" 218

15. Kelvin Benjamin 6'5" 240

16. Calvin Johnson 6'5" 236

17. Steve Smith 5'9" 185

18. Anquan Boldin 6'1" 220

19. Julian Edelman 5'10" 200

20. Mike Wallace 6'0" 200

We see 4 good size comps for DGB. They cluster just outside of WR1 territory for the most part with Demaryius Thomas obviously the outlier there. He scored almost 100 more fantasy points than the others. What I see a lot more of is smaller receivers. Just using the arbitrary cutoff of 200 lbs we see that almost 50% of top 20 receivers measured out as smaller guys. Also every single big guy in that group was a first round draft pick. So if DGB slides into the second round, I don't like his chances.

Maybe better to look at the other size/profile guys like Devin Smith and Phillip Dorsett. As smaller guys have take over the top 20 for fantasy receivers.

Obviously there are a lot more small guys too.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Bruce Hammond said:
Soulfly3 said:
Sabertooth said:
Soulfly3 said:
The new drug rules in the NFL may benefit DGB, in a big way

Guy basically gets 4 strikes til he's in Gordonville.
Click to expand...
So like, October then are we thinking? He'll probably get one or two before camp.
Click to expand...
Again, I get the standoffishness due to character concerns... If you're that kind of drafter. I'm not.

Here's the thing... are you really going to pass on elite talent and otherworld physique for "alter boys"? I get taking 2-3 WRs ahead of him, but how far are "character counts" guys letting him slide? This is a question both for dynasty and real NFL.
Click to expand...
Let's be clear. Guys bust, and guys with character issues bust more often because of the character issues. It's not just failed drug tests, it can be lots of ramifications of immaturity, from domestic abuse to not working hard enough at his craft to cut it at this level a la Manziel to flakiness in making meetings and practices to lots of things. Talent, physique, those are just words unless they translate to production on the football field at the NFL level. You don't need to insult the guys with less natural ability who succeed with damn hard work by calling them alter boys. There are a lot of 'elite talent' guys who never amounted to anything, and a lot of so called 'choir boys' who made it to the HoF.
Click to expand...
I'm not insulting. Im asking a question. The draft is upcoming (the real AND fantasy)

So the question is, do you (GMs and fantasy owners) take the squeaky clean guys with less natural talent and hope they turn out to be gems, or do you take the charcter flawed guy with elite measurables and hope he doesnt implode?

Yes, guys of all statures and characters bust - But generally, and I dont think Im wrong here, the guys who are current showhorses, get drafted early. Right or wrong.

And yes, despite a year off, it's clear as day DGB is still a showhorse... He ranks from anywhere between #1 to #4 for this year's WRs by the draft guys
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Me personally, I let someone else take him. I've been in this hobby a hundred years or so and have learned that his elite measurables aren't as important a factor as you think, because the other guys are good enough in terms of measurables to become great football players, and that's all I care about. More is not necessarily better -- that's the misconception you're banking on. Beckham doesn't have his physique, and so what? Brady doesn't have Jeff George's arm, and so what? I'll take the guy without emotional / psychological / substance issues and with a high drive to succeed -- and with enough talent to do so -- and leave the flakes.

Now, I'm not suggesting I'll take some 7th rounder over him, only that in every rookie draft there will be someone like you who will take him high enough that the next guy available will be just fine in terms of opportunity to be a star, but without the potential headaches.

 
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I wouldn't draft this guy in the top 8 picks in the first round regardless which team takes him and that is only if he lands in a great spot. If he lands in an average to bad spot, then I wouldn't draft him until the 2nd round.. I don't like his odds of staying clean. Not to mention his WR skills have a few holes in it as well, but mainly it's because I feel he will be in Goodell's doghouse early and often.

 
Sabertooth said:
We don't know he's an elite level talent. We suspect he has a good chance to develop into an elite talent but there is no guarantee.

And looking at the top 20 fantasy receivers we see very few that are in DGB's size profile.

Dorial Green-Beckham 6'5" 237

1. Antonio Brown 5'10" 186

2. Demaryius Thomas 6'3" 229

3. Jordy Nelson 6'3" 217

4. Dez Bryant 6'2" 220

5. Emmanuel Sanders 5'11" 180

6. Julio Jones 6'3" 220

7. Odell Beckham 5'11" 198

8. Randall Cobb 5'10" 192

9. Jeremy Maclin 6'0" 198

10. Alshon Jeffrey 6'3" 215

11. Golden Tate 5'10" 202

12. TY Hilton 5'9" 198

13. Mike Evans 6'6" 231

14. DeAndre Hopkins 6'1" 218

15. Kelvin Benjamin 6'5" 240

16. Calvin Johnson 6'5" 236

17. Steve Smith 5'9" 185

18. Anquan Boldin 6'1" 220

19. Julian Edelman 5'10" 200

20. Mike Wallace 6'0" 200

We see 4 good size comps for DGB. They cluster just outside of WR1 territory for the most part with Demaryius Thomas obviously the outlier there. He scored almost 100 more fantasy points than the others. What I see a lot more of is smaller receivers. Just using the arbitrary cutoff of 200 lbs we see that almost 50% of top 20 receivers measured out as smaller guys. Also every single big guy in that group was a first round draft pick. So if DGB slides into the second round, I don't like his chances.

Maybe better to look at the other size/profile guys like Devin Smith and Phillip Dorsett. As smaller guys have take over the top 20 for fantasy receivers.

Obviously there are a lot more small guys too.
Click to expand...
What I take from that list is the fact that literally half of the top 20 elite FF WRs are 6 feet and under.

Maybe this ide of fast monsters is a bit overblown.

 
That's my thinking as well. Although there are a lot, and I mean a lot, more receivers that are under 6' than over 6'5"

 
Soulfly3 said:
trader jake said:
The Patriot success with the WR's they have selected would be a major concern. Add in the likelihood that DGB would be in his prime after Tom Brady leaves and I just don't see many taking him 1.01. Not to mention his off the field issues and using the top pick in dynasty on him just doesn't make much sense.
Click to expand...
new rules....

big body WRs like evans and k benjamin putting up huge first seasons w crap to mediocre QBs.

something to keep in mind
Click to expand...
Cam Newton is a mediocre QB?

I like the question though. I'm not going to take him with the 1.01 just because the Pats took him. I wouldn't undervalue DBG because the Pats selected him, but I do question the Pats ability to evaluate WR talent coming out of college. They haven't done real well in the last few years.

 
Sabertooth said:
That's my thinking as well. Although there are a lot, and I mean a lot, more receivers that are under 6' than over 6'5"
Click to expand...
Or, and I honestly don't know the answer to this, that all guys who are 6'3"+ and 225+ who have decent speed produce? There just aren't a lot of guys in that Calvin, D Thomas, Evans, Benjamin category.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Chase Stuart said:
Soulfly3 said:
Im probably gonna head to bed soon, so now is as good a time as any to throw this tidbit in, and part of why I started this thread...

2010 - Demariyus Thomas was chosen before Dez Bryant in the NFL draft...

Come rookie draft time, ADP data shows Dez was the 1.02 pick and DT was 1.05

Dez was every bit the bad boy DGB was, and maybe moreso.... Just some food for thought.
Click to expand...
I don't think hanging out with Deion Sanders makes someone as much of a bad boy as knocking down a girl's door to her apartment and throwing a woman down a flight of stairs. Way too broad of a brush to put Dez and DGB under the same "character issues" label.
Click to expand...
Didnt Dez slap his own mother?

eta: getting suspended from college for smoking a joint is every bit as ludicrous as getting popped for training w Deion.

neither one scares me... I firmly believe at least 80% of the league smokes weed.
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He slapped his mother in 2012, two years after he was drafted.

 
matttyl said:
Sabertooth said:
That's my thinking as well. Although there are a lot, and I mean a lot, more receivers that are under 6' than over 6'5"
Click to expand...
Or, and I honestly don't know the answer to this, that all guys who are 6'3"+ and 225+ who have decent speed produce? There just aren't a lot of guys in that Calvin, D Thomas, Evans, Benjamin category.
Click to expand...
Jon Baldwin comes to mind... 6'5", check. 230 lb, check. 1st round pick (KC), check. Character issues coming out of college, check.

Character issues continued in KC, he never cracked the starting lineup, he was shipped to SF for fellow 1st round bust AJ Jenkins, did nothing there, is now a total bust.

Here's an article from back in the time when there was still hope, but after his locker room fight with respected Thomas Jones. The writing was on the wall then.

http://www.si.com/nfl/audibles/2011/08/19/jonathan-baldwins-character-issues-return-in-reported-fight-with-thomas-jones

 
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Bruce Hammond said:
matttyl said:
Sabertooth said:
That's my thinking as well. Although there are a lot, and I mean a lot, more receivers that are under 6' than over 6'5"
Click to expand...
Or, and I honestly don't know the answer to this, that all guys who are 6'3"+ and 225+ who have decent speed produce? There just aren't a lot of guys in that Calvin, D Thomas, Evans, Benjamin category.
Click to expand...
Jon Baldwin comes to mind... 6'5", check. 230 lb, check. 1st round pick (KC), check. Character issues coming out of college, check.

Character issues continued in KC, he never cracked the starting lineup, he was shipped to SF for fellow 1st round bust AJ Jenkins, did nothing there, is now a total bust.

Here's an article from back in the time when there was still hope, but after his locker room fight with respected Thomas Jones. The writing was on the wall then.

http://www.si.com/nfl/audibles/2011/08/19/jonathan-baldwins-character-issues-return-in-reported-fight-with-thomas-jones
Click to expand...
Like you said, character issues. You have that at nearly every position, and for every size player at each position. His lack of production likely was due to his lack of desire and attitude, not for lack of ability.

I guess what I meant to mean was that you likely have a higher % of guys who are 6'3"+, 225+, 4.5 or under who produce than you do guys who are under 6' who might actually be a step quicker (you just have fewer of the former than you do the latter).

 
matttyl said:
Bruce Hammond said:
matttyl said:
Sabertooth said:
That's my thinking as well. Although there are a lot, and I mean a lot, more receivers that are under 6' than over 6'5"
Click to expand...
Or, and I honestly don't know the answer to this, that all guys who are 6'3"+ and 225+ who have decent speed produce? There just aren't a lot of guys in that Calvin, D Thomas, Evans, Benjamin category.
Click to expand...
Jon Baldwin comes to mind... 6'5", check. 230 lb, check. 1st round pick (KC), check. Character issues coming out of college, check.

Character issues continued in KC, he never cracked the starting lineup, he was shipped to SF for fellow 1st round bust AJ Jenkins, did nothing there, is now a total bust.

Here's an article from back in the time when there was still hope, but after his locker room fight with respected Thomas Jones. The writing was on the wall then.

http://www.si.com/nfl/audibles/2011/08/19/jonathan-baldwins-character-issues-return-in-reported-fight-with-thomas-jones
Click to expand...
Like you said, character issues. You have that at nearly every position, and for every size player at each position. His lack of production likely was due to his lack of desire and attitude, not for lack of ability.

I guess what I meant to mean was that you likely have a higher % of guys who are 6'3"+, 225+, 4.5 or under who produce than you do guys who are under 6' who might actually be a step quicker (you just have fewer of the former than you do the latter).
Click to expand...
That's probably true, because guys who are that size but aren't such good pass catchers will get moved to TE somewhere along the way prior to this point.

 
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Interest discussion.

Good to see points of view, and Im wondering if the whole Gordon thing didnt happen if this would be a completely different talk we're having.

All I wanted.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Interest discussion.

Good to see points of view, and Im wondering if the whole Gordon thing didnt happen if this would be a completely different talk we're having.

All I wanted.
Click to expand...
I'm sure Gordon factors in, being recent and an extreme case going from the very top of his position to where his is now, but you're a little more focused in on him that most probably. There have always been character concern guys and the risk / reward equation has always needed to be applied. I think too many people in fantasy inadequately apply the risk factor when it comes to players who have a history of emotional / psychological / substance issues. Not that they can't overcome them, but are we discounting them enough to account for the elevated risk (vis-a-vis the next players on the 'talent' list without the issues) that players with these character flaws will not overcome them? I've seen Da'Rick Rogers go in late 1st rounds of rookie drafts, and even saw Colt Lyerla go in the early 2nd round of one of them. This offseason I've seen guys thinking they can flip Duron Carter for a 1st round rookie pick (a bit different situation because he's succeeded in the CFL, but the issues that led him to Canada had to do with character in his college age years), and I'm seeing owners try to sell Blackmon again for 1sts now that a few positive reports have surfaced.

It's madness to see the red flags right in front of you and pretend they are not there. Guys of this type all have some sort of value, but unless you discount them properly you will lose in the long run. And if discounting them means not placing them where the consensus does (since, again, I don't think the consensus discounts them enough), maybe I miss out on DGB and end up with Strong or Coates instead, and that guy ends up an Alshon Jeffrey or Jordy Nelson. Passing on DGB doesn't mean I'm passing on Calvin Johnson, it means I'm passing on Calvin Johnson size. I might be passing on Charles Rogers or Jon Baldwin. Hopefully DGB becomes the next great thing. Could happen. I'm just not going to pay full price for a new product when the flaws in that product are right there to see and similar products are available without the flaws.

 
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Good posting.

I have been vocal that I consider White and Cooper as 1a/1b, I in fact started the White v Cooper thread all the way back in October when many didnt even have White high on their radar. Logically, they'll remain my 1-2 in dynasty rankings, and I still need to figure out if Parker or DGB is my no3.

But I started this thread just to see how the dynasty community ranks, what I still consider to be, an elite prospective talent, who sat out a year... IF he goes to a top end offense in the NFL.

If DGB played the entire year, I find it hard to believe he wouldnt be my no1 WR... I just think he has the size and skills to kill it in college... will it translate? We never know, but Id be inclined to say yes.

I definitely didnt start the thread to say he IS the #1 if he ends up in a great spot.... I started to ask is there a chance

 
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