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JJ Watt Value (1 Viewer)

Patriots24

Footballguy
I was wondering what you guys thought Watts value would be. Maybe a RB/WR1 and some early picks?

Scoring:

Solo Tackle: 2 points

Assisted Tackle: 1 point

Pass Deflection: 3 points

Sack: 4 points

Interception: 6 points

Forced/Recovered fumble: 3 points

 
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I just traded Lacy for him in a league where Watt had 340 pts as DL1 last year and Lacy had 254 pts as RB6. Start 1-3 RB and 3 DL. I see it as a big win for me. Watt should basically be unobtainable in leagues that are somewhat close to balanced or IDP-weighted. But in many leagues you can still acquire him since owners put more value on star offensive players. The way I see it, it is because IDP is still relatively rare in the FF community so there's a whole lot more hype around offensive players as fantasy assets than what there is for elite IDPs.

 
The scoring is:

Solo tackle- 2 points

Assisted tackle- 1 point

Sack- 4 points

Forced fumble/recovery- 3 points

Pass deflection -3 points

Interception- 6 points

He averaged 20 points per week last year in my league.

 
The scoring is:

Solo tackle- 2 points

Assisted tackle- 1 point

Sack- 4 points

Forced fumble/recovery- 3 points

Pass deflection -3 points

Interception- 6 points

He averaged 20 points per week last year in my league.
Ok, that's pretty heavy scoring so I'd go pretty far to get him. Especially if you also get points for receiving TDs.

 
In a startup dynasty I was doing last night, he went 23rd overall based on scoring above(except pass deflect is 1 pt, not 3). Owner said he always wanted to own him, and with an average 60-20-18 statline(estimated of course) he should score at worst 200(Floor) and up to 300(high ceiling) if you include other stats(FF, FR, PD, TD, INT) allows you to have an elite guy at the DL position where the next DL availible(JPP, Quinn) may be 60-100 points behind Watt- that's a huge separation IMO from #1 to #2 .

 
Traded a 2014 1st and Zac Stacy to get him. He went on to have a monster season for me. Granted, the 1.05 turned out to be OBJ for the other guy but Im still happy with the trade. No other positional advantage like it. This guy outscored linebackers, running backs, and receivers.

 
Obviously it depends on your scoring and DL lineup rules, I'm in a full blown IDP league it would take an insane offer to get JJ. He's just so much better scoring than everyone else and he's so consistent and he's young. His value is crazy high, and it would take an offer no one would make to get him. He scored 109 points more than the next DE, no other position is dominated like that by a single player.

 
Depends on scoring. I play in a few tackle heavy low-IDP scoring leagues where I'd probably take him in the early 3rd of a startup.

More often I play in high-scoring IDP leagues, and I recently took him at 1.02 overall. Felt at time and still feel it was the SOD.

 
Last year he was traded one for one for McCoy (soon after Sproles was traded to the Eagles). We all thought the guy getting McCoy got the way better end of the deal.....which at least for last year turned out not to be the case.

 
I took him at pick 12 in a startup. I have him ranked 4th behind only Luck, Rodgers, and Gronk.

 
I took him at pick 12 in a startup. I have him ranked 4th behind only Luck, Rodgers, and Gronk.
This depends on scoring and lineup needs. I think he is great but I am doing a mock now for a league that will startup later in year and doing a mock to see how things shake out. Watt was the top scorer there but they start 1 DL, 1 LB and 1 DB and 1 Flex for 16 team league. I thought 6 was too high because he has to be huge each year to be worth it. 2 years ago he was the 20th player overall and you only have to have 1. I know VBD puts him ahead but you start 6 skill players and supply and demand speak differently in a 16 team league.

 
I took him at pick 12 in a startup. I have him ranked 4th behind only Luck, Rodgers, and Gronk.
This depends on scoring and lineup needs. I think he is great but I am doing a mock now for a league that will startup later in year and doing a mock to see how things shake out. Watt was the top scorer there but they start 1 DL, 1 LB and 1 DB and 1 Flex for 16 team league. I thought 6 was too high because he has to be huge each year to be worth it. 2 years ago he was the 20th player overall and you only have to have 1. I know VBD puts him ahead but you start 6 skill players and supply and demand speak differently in a 16 team league.
any time you devalue a position, values will be skewed.

In my 32 team salary league he's the 29th highest paid player. That's value IMO, if we did a new auction today I'd have him right behind Luck and Rodgers, but ahead of Gronk - mostly because of scoring, Gronk was the 35th scorer ppg.

Player 2014 YTD Pts Bye Salary Years Drafted Trade?
Glennon, Mike TBB QB 100.6 7 $2,300 4 FA
Manning, Eli NYG QB 271.1 8 $7,000 3 FA
Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 269.5 6 $23,000 3 FA
McKinnon, Jerick MIN RB 109.6 10 $1,000 2 FA
Sims, Charles TBB RB 53.8 7 $1,200 2 FA
Williams, Andre NYG RB 155.1 8 $1,400 2 FA
Beckham, Odell NYG WR (P) 238.6 8 $2,600 3 FA
Bonner, Alan HOU WR (P) - 10 $100 2 FA
Brown, Philly CAR WR 75.8 12 $100 4 FA
Johnson, Charles MIN WR 75.8 10 $900 1 FA
Maehl, Jeff PHI WR 7.1 7 $100 2 FA
Doyle, Jack IND TE 30.7 10 $100 1 FA
Olsen, Greg CAR TE 219.1 12 $9,200 3 FA
Carpenter, Dan BUF PK 145.9 9 $1,600 1 FA
Jones, Donnie PHI PN 96.3 7 $1,000 1 FA
Ferguson, Ego CHI DT 72.0 9 $700 2 FA
Floyd, Sharrif MIN DT 133.5 10 $3,800 3 FA
Jean-Francois, Ricky WAS DE 93.0 10 $100 1 FA
Lawrence, Demarcus DAL DE 20.0 11 $900 2 FA
Ninkovich, Rob NEP DE 203.0 10 $5,200 2 FA
Watt, J.J. HOU DE 356.4 10 $19,900 1 FA
Foster, Mason CHI LB 110.0 9 $7,600 4 FA
Okafor, Alex ARI LB 100.0 4 $800 3 FA
Orakpo, Brian TEN LB (P) 42.5 9 $3,700 4 FA
Robinson, Keenan WAS LB 178.5 10 $100 1 FA
Benwikere, Bene CAR CB 71.0 12 $200 4 FA
Robey, Nickell BUF CB 107.0 9 $600 2 FA
Commings, Sanders KCC S (P) - 6 $400 1 FA
Moore, Rahim HOU S 119.0 10 $1,000 1 FA

with roughly 1/3 salary cap left.
Watt equates to 14% of our cap.

 
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I took him at pick 12 in a startup. I have him ranked 4th behind only Luck, Rodgers, and Gronk.
This depends on scoring and lineup needs. I think he is great but I am doing a mock now for a league that will startup later in year and doing a mock to see how things shake out. Watt was the top scorer there but they start 1 DL, 1 LB and 1 DB and 1 Flex for 16 team league. I thought 6 was too high because he has to be huge each year to be worth it. 2 years ago he was the 20th player overall and you only have to have 1. I know VBD puts him ahead but you start 6 skill players and supply and demand speak differently in a 16 team league.
Everything always depends on scoring and lineup needs. Just for perspective...

40 man rosters, keep 35, rookies will be drafted separately in May (I pick #1), 3 picks left in vet draft

1 qb/2 rb/3 wr/1 te/1 r-w-t flex/1 k/2 dl/2 lb/2 db/1 idp flex

Nothing unusual about scoring format, intentionally fairly balanced/traditional

Peyton/Bridgewater/RG3/Geno

D Freeman/Vereen/D Robinson/B Oliver/D McFadden

AJ Green/E Sanders/J Landry/A Johnson/Harvin/Crabtree

J Graham/D Allen/G Escobar

Watt/C Johnson/M Bennett/D Moore

K Robinson/P Brown/S Barrington/Te'o

Bucannon/___ - tbd, still drafting (going to add another LB too)

 
In my 12-team dynasty league, JJ Watt was just traded for Robert Quinn, Navorro Bowman, and two 2nd rounders.
unless bowman comes back as a top 3 linebacker that's a steal.
I like it for the team traded Watt. This is a good draft coming up. That 2nd rounder could get one O player which is almost all leagues is what wins championships(or the 2 I am in) and than a nice LB on top of this. Quinn is nothing to sneeze at and as proven in 2013, he could outscore Watt as the most capable player to do it. Bowman coming back is just gravy.

 
In my 12-team dynasty league, JJ Watt was just traded for Robert Quinn, Navorro Bowman, and two 2nd rounders.
unless bowman comes back as a top 3 linebacker that's a steal.
I like it for the team traded Watt. This is a good draft coming up. That 2nd rounder could get one O player which is almost all leagues is what wins championships(or the 2 I am in) and than a nice LB on top of this. Quinn is nothing to sneeze at and as proven in 2013, he could outscore Watt as the most capable player to do it. Bowman coming back is just gravy.
I'm assuming balanced scoring. If the 2nd round O players help you win more than Watt would, that would indicate unbalanced scoring.

 
In my 12-team dynasty league, JJ Watt was just traded for Robert Quinn, Navorro Bowman, and two 2nd rounders.
unless bowman comes back as a top 3 linebacker that's a steal.
I like it for the team traded Watt. This is a good draft coming up. That 2nd rounder could get one O player which is almost all leagues is what wins championships(or the 2 I am in) and than a nice LB on top of this. Quinn is nothing to sneeze at and as proven in 2013, he could outscore Watt as the most capable player to do it. Bowman coming back is just gravy.
I'm assuming balanced scoring. If the 2nd round O players help you win more than Watt would, that would indicate unbalanced scoring.
Just last year in a 16 team league I am in, I got M. Bryant, Shazier and Bortles in the 2nd round. In my other home league I got Landry at the 2.16 and Mosley went 2.8 to another team. I would take a deal with any 2 of those 3 in it for Watt today to downgrade to Quinn and add Bowman also. Or getting Landry and Mosley

 
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In my 12-team dynasty league, JJ Watt was just traded for Robert Quinn, Navorro Bowman, and two 2nd rounders.
unless bowman comes back as a top 3 linebacker that's a steal.
I like it for the team traded Watt. This is a good draft coming up. That 2nd rounder could get one O player which is almost all leagues is what wins championships(or the 2 I am in) and than a nice LB on top of this. Quinn is nothing to sneeze at and as proven in 2013, he could outscore Watt as the most capable player to do it. Bowman coming back is just gravy.
I'm assuming balanced scoring. If the 2nd round O players help you win more than Watt would, that would indicate unbalanced scoring.
Just last year in a 16 team league I am in, I got M. Bryant, Shazier and Bortles in the 2nd round. In my other home league I got Landry at the 2.16 and Mosley went 2.8 to another team. I would take a deal with any 2 of those 3 in it for Watt today to downgrade to Quinn and add Bowman also. Or getting Landry and Mosley
ok. so roughly 1/3 of 2nd round picks. he got two of them so maybe he'll get lucky but that's a 66% chance of getting one player of the caliber you listed.

:shrug: I wouldn't give Watt for this package in a 12 team deal but clearly some would.

 
I wouldn't either. In this league he scored more than two teams' top QB. He outscored every RB except Bell and every WR except Antonio Brown. So he was esentially like starting a high end RB1 or high end WR1 each week AT DEFENSIVE END. He scored 100 points more than the next highest defensive player and 200 points more than the next highest defensive lineman, almost doubling up JPP. And this was without even receiving credit for offensive TD's. We've since changed our rules to award offensive TD's for defensive players, which only helps his stock even more.

 
There's a sound argument to be made that he go # 1 overall in start-up dynasty drafts (balanced scoring, of course).
He's certainly a larger advantage at DE than just about anyone else is at their respective positions in most scoring systems. I wouldn't think it was crazy if somebody tried it.

 
16 team, 53 roster spot salary cap leagues (two) so limited value but thought I'd share. . .

I have Watt in one league, had Kuechly in two leagues. Traded Kuechly in one for 2015 1.01.

Would take at least a top 3 pick and top player with long expected FF-life (WR?) to even think about it for Watt.

 
Just traded 1.4 for Watt in my IDP Dynasty. For IDP we start 2-3 Dline/ 2 - 3 LB / 2 - 3 DB for a total of 8 defensive starters.

Top 10 Dline from my league last year looked like this:

http://puu.sh/ho64O/d2ab5036e2.png

He literally more then doubled the 3rd highest scoring Dline.

Was the #1 defensive scoring player:

http://puu.sh/ho67K/b69d2b7d66.png

Would have finished at TE6

http://puu.sh/ho6bg/138ee16a1c.png

And WR21

http://puu.sh/ho6cU/132f0a0cc1.png

And RB11

http://puu.sh/ho6hE/d09017e02b.png

All from the de position. Crazy.

 
Just traded 1.4 for Watt in my IDP Dynasty. For IDP we start 2-3 Dline/ 2 - 3 LB / 2 - 3 DB for a total of 8 defensive starters.

Top 10 Dline from my league last year looked like this:

http://puu.sh/ho64O/d2ab5036e2.png

He literally more then doubled the 3rd highest scoring Dline.

Was the #1 defensive scoring player:

http://puu.sh/ho67K/b69d2b7d66.png

Would have finished at TE6

http://puu.sh/ho6bg/138ee16a1c.png

And WR21

http://puu.sh/ho6cU/132f0a0cc1.png

And RB11

http://puu.sh/ho6hE/d09017e02b.png

All from the de position. Crazy.
Your league must be slanted towards offensive statistics. In my league, which is pretty standard both offensively and defensively, he would have been TE1, WR8, and RB5. PPR league, too. However, in my league, he was barely outscored by Luke Kuechly and DeAndre Levy defensively. Levy scored 294.5, Kuechly 293, JJ 292.90. He finished miles ahead of next highest DL, which was JPP at 191.50.

Looking more, your league must not value tackles very high. 1 pt. per solo?

 
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I am not saying Watt isn't valuable but you can't take his last season as what to expect going forward. It was far and away his best season.

It was 63% better than 2013 and 25% better than 2012.

 
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I am not saying Watt isn't valuable but you can't take his last season as what to expect going forward. It was far and away his best season.

It was 63% better than 2013 and 25% better than 2012.
Guess that's scoring dependent cause his 2014 and 2012 seasons were nearly identical in my leagues.

 
I am not saying Watt isn't valuable but you can't take his last season as what to expect going forward. It was far and away his best season.

It was 63% better than 2013 and 25% better than 2012.
Guess that's scoring dependent cause his 2014 and 2012 seasons were nearly identical in my leagues.
In my league:

2014 : 215 points http://puu.sh/hRMY2/f1bd28ffa8.png

2013 : 142 points http://puu.sh/hRN0K/d28675e4f4.png

2012 : 201 points http://puu.sh/hRN2L/57f4e596f1.png

 
Just traded 1.4 for Watt in my IDP Dynasty. For IDP we start 2-3 Dline/ 2 - 3 LB / 2 - 3 DB for a total of 8 defensive starters.

Top 10 Dline from my league last year looked like this:

http://puu.sh/ho64O/d2ab5036e2.png

He literally more then doubled the 3rd highest scoring Dline.

Was the #1 defensive scoring player:

http://puu.sh/ho67K/b69d2b7d66.png

Would have finished at TE6

http://puu.sh/ho6bg/138ee16a1c.png

And WR21

http://puu.sh/ho6cU/132f0a0cc1.png

And RB11

http://puu.sh/ho6hE/d09017e02b.png

All from the de position. Crazy.
Your league must be slanted towards offensive statistics. In my league, which is pretty standard both offensively and defensively, he would have been TE1, WR8, and RB5. PPR league, too. However, in my league, he was barely outscored by Luke Kuechly and DeAndre Levy defensively. Levy scored 294.5, Kuechly 293, JJ 292.90. He finished miles ahead of next highest DL, which was JPP at 191.50.

Looking more, your league must not value tackles very high. 1 pt. per solo?
Yah.

Defense:
Solo Tackle = 1 point
Assisted Tackle = 0.5 points
Sack = 2 points
Interception = 3 points
Force Fumble = 1.5 points
Fumble recovery = 1.5 points
Defensive TD = 6 points
Pass Deflected = 1 points
Tackle for loss per yard = 0.1 points
Blocked FG = 2 points

Not my favorite IDP scoring but so far my only dynasty league that has lasted 8+ years, so I don't wanna rock the boat and try to change what's working. It values Sacks and TFL pretty highly.
 
I am not saying Watt isn't valuable but you can't take his last season as what to expect going forward. It was far and away his best season.

It was 63% better than 2013 and 25% better than 2012.
Oh, yeah. 2014 was his career year. I won't speak for others, but my expectations are somewhere between 2012 and 2013 for the next 3 years. As he nears 30, and eventually crosses over to the other side, I'd expect his numbers to start to tail a bit (but still be one of the top players at his position), but there's really no reason to expect that to happen between now and then.

 
I am not saying Watt isn't valuable but you can't take his last season as what to expect going forward. It was far and away his best season.

It was 63% better than 2013 and 25% better than 2012.
Oh, yeah. 2014 was his career year. I won't speak for others, but my expectations are somewhere between 2012 and 2013 for the next 3 years. As he nears 30, and eventually crosses over to the other side, I'd expect his numbers to start to tail a bit (but still be one of the top players at his position), but there's really no reason to expect that to happen between now and then.
okay. the man is 26 years old, younger than half of the top 10 offensive players.

I wouldn't count on any INTs or TDs, but a baseline of 60 solo, 15 asisted tackles, and let's say 15 sacks, is still long way ahead of the next DL.

Plus with a few teams switching to 3-4, a productive player at the DE position is becoming even scarcer.

I wouldn't argue against taking 10-15 O players ahead of him depending on your league, but he gives the largest positional advantage outside of maybe Gronk.

Not real sure how his 2014 was 25% better than 2012, unless that INT return counts that much. He had fewer tackles and the same amount of sacks.

 
FUBAR said:
I am not saying Watt isn't valuable but you can't take his last season as what to expect going forward. It was far and away his best season.

It was 63% better than 2013 and 25% better than 2012.
Oh, yeah. 2014 was his career year. I won't speak for others, but my expectations are somewhere between 2012 and 2013 for the next 3 years. As he nears 30, and eventually crosses over to the other side, I'd expect his numbers to start to tail a bit (but still be one of the top players at his position), but there's really no reason to expect that to happen between now and then.
okay. the man is 26 years old, younger than half of the top 10 offensive players.

I wouldn't count on any INTs or TDs, but a baseline of 60 solo, 15 asisted tackles, and let's say 15 sacks, is still long way ahead of the next DL.

Plus with a few teams switching to 3-4, a productive player at the DE position is becoming even scarcer.

I wouldn't argue against taking 10-15 O players ahead of him depending on your league, but he gives the largest positional advantage outside of maybe Gronk.

Not real sure how his 2014 was 25% better than 2012, unless that INT return counts that much. He had fewer tackles and the same amount of sacks.
Return yards and in 2014 he had offensive TDs and receptions as well.

 
I traded Stafford for him straight-up in a Zealots league this offseason. I'm not sure who got the best of that deal.

 
Does his value actually go up now with the news of JPP? Is that even possible? Supply and demand would tell us it would.

 
Does his value actually go up now with the news of JPP? Is that even possible? Supply and demand would tell us it would.
Nah, I don't think so, he was already on a super-elite-upper-tier by himself. Dynasty startup draft I'm in, he was taken at #2 overall. Same guy had both picks and took Luck with #1. :lol: I would've definitely considered Watt in the first round, and I think I was pick #7.

 
I joined a dynasty league this year that's goin into it's 2nd season. 12 team ppr, sacks=4pts, tackles = 1.5pts, asst = .75pt etc.

Start 1QB, 2-3 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE, 2 DE, 1DT, 3 LB, 3 S/CB.

There were 5 new owners including myself, I traded for him after the dispersal draft concluded. Here it is: (this was after a lot of back and forth)

I was offered …Forsett, Justin BAL RB;Taliaferro, Lorenzo BAL RB;Johnson, Charles MIN WR;Pitta, Dennis BAL TE;Watt, J.J. HOU DE; Year 2015 Draft Pick 4.03; Year 2016 Round 4 Draft Pick

For …Asiata, Matt MIN RB;Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB;Michael, Christine SEA RB;Turbin, Robert SEA RB;Clay, Charles BUF TE;Jackson, Malik DEN DE; Year 2015 Draft Pick 1.10;Year 2015 Draft Pick 3.12; Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick

Also,

I just turned down this offer for him:

Was offered…McCoy, Gerald TBB DT;Richardson, Sheldon NYJ DE;Kendricks, Mychal PHI LB

for …Watt, J.J. HOU DE

It was a decent offer, but take a look at the over all scoring list: http://football13.myfantasyleague.com/2015/options?L=33769&O=08

Watt finished with 369.55pts, an avg of 23.1pts/game. Good for 5th highest total over all. J.P.P. Was the 2nd highest scoring DE with 213.35pts. 156pts less than Watt. It's like starting JPP and Robert Quinn at the same time in one roster spot.

L. Bell only out scored him by 1/2pt on the year. Luck finished #1 on the list with 403pts on the year. Its like you can put Luck, Rodgers, A. Brown, or L. Bell In your DE spot!!

I'm with 5-ish on this one… the biggest positional advantage in the game.

 
If last year's super rookie flop shows up and plays well, how does this affect Watt's value?

 
The JJ Watt owner in my dynasty league unfortunately had some tough injury luck with Foster and Nelson. I've been reaching out to him about a deal for JJ but we have not been able to agree on a price. This is my latest offer, any thoughts on how I could seal the deal? We are in a tackle heavy league. 1pt tackle, .5 assist, 3pt sacks, 1pt TFL, etc.

I give

Mason, Tre STL RB
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
Year 2016 Round 2 Draft Pick
Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick
Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick

for
Smith, Alex KCC QB
Watt, J.J. HOU DE
My team:

QB: Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton
RB: Eddie Lacy, Justin Forsett, Doug Martin, Danny Woodhead, Joique Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Charles Sims, Tre Mason, James Starks, Josh Robinson
WR: Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Mike Wallace, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Breshad Perriman, Kenny Britt, Donte Moncrief
TE: Jimmy Graham, Tyler Eifert, Jason Witten
PK: Justin Tucker
DE: Carlos Dunlap
LB: Luke Kuechly, CJ Mosley, Jamie Collins, Sean Lee, Anthony Barr, DeMario Davis
DB: Antoine Bethea, Antrel Rolle

Future picks:
2016: 1st, 2nd, 3 3rds, 2 4ths
2017: 2nd, 3rd, 4th

I'd agree my current offer contains a lot of fluff and I could make it simpler. Thank you in advance for taking the time to reply. I appreciate it.
 
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If sacks are 3 times what a tackle is worth, that isn't tackle heavy. It's more balanced, shading toward big play.

Is it a PPR league? Actually, the PPR thing is irrelevant. if I'm the Watt owner I hit the reject button on that immediately.

 
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If sacks are 3 times what a tackle is worth, that isn't tackle heavy. It's more balanced, shading toward big play.

Is it a PPR league? Actually, the PPR thing is irrelevant. if I'm the Watt owner I hit the reject button on that immediately.
yes, balanced... and .5 ppr

What about I give

Mason, Tre STL RB

Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR

Dunlap, Carlos CIN DE

Year 2016 Round 1 Draft Pick

Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick

I get

Smith, Alex KCC QB

Watt, J.J. HOU DE

It feels a lot to me and even though JJ is the man, I think I can win without him.

 

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