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Project or Die: Hector Olivera International Man of Mystery (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eephus
- Start date
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
The most unpredictable player in fantasy baseball this year. Unlike most cubans, he reportedly has a good eye/approach. Decent power. Probably not much speed. I think he'll be valuable at 2B and below average at 3B. I think he'll be up by May and play everyday. Best case is him probably hitting in the 6/7 slot.
280ish avg
340ish obp
15 HR
60+ rbi
60+ runs
If he gets 2B eligibility and I can stash him, I like him around 2B #15 - just below guys like Walker and Odor and just above guys like Utley, Gyorko, Phillips. If he gets 3B eligibility, I like him around 3B #20-25 with the likes of Headley, Semien, Chisenhall, etc.
280ish avg
340ish obp
15 HR
60+ rbi
60+ runs
If he gets 2B eligibility and I can stash him, I like him around 2B #15 - just below guys like Walker and Odor and just above guys like Utley, Gyorko, Phillips. If he gets 3B eligibility, I like him around 3B #20-25 with the likes of Headley, Semien, Chisenhall, etc.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Way too many ?'s to even consider, unless you're in a deep league where you can stash him. Then maybe worth a late-round pick or $1.
Chemical X
Footballguy
0/0/0
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
240 PAs
4 HR
28 RBI
28 R
2 steals (of 3B)
255/325/395
And surgery, lots of surgery somewhere.
4 HR
28 RBI
28 R
2 steals (of 3B)
255/325/395
And surgery, lots of surgery somewhere.
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pantagrapher
Footballguy
Eephus
Footballguy
I'm an Olivera dynasty owner but I'm not buying the hype for this year. LA was just about the worst landing spot for him except for the money. I don't think he plays enough to warrant a draft slot or high FAAB bit.
150 PAs, 3HR, 35 (R+BI), 2 SB .270/.320/.360
Hopefully nobody bites his ear off in AAA.
150 PAs, 3HR, 35 (R+BI), 2 SB .270/.320/.360
Hopefully nobody bites his ear off in AAA.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
I disagree. I think he gets all the ABs he can handle. I dont believe the Dodgers give him that contract unless they think he's an upgrade / everyday player right now. He may suck or be hurt, but his problem shouldn't be opportunity. Remember, for all the question marks, there are also a lot of scouts that have raved about his bat calling it "major league ready".
Rollins, Grandal and Kendrick should be at the bottom of this lineup. Joc is still just a rookie. Maybe he finds his way into the 2 hole or 5 spot and picks up some extra counting stats along the way? To me, the upside far outweighs the risk. As I said before though, he's A LOT more attractive as a 2B than a 3B.
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
So, who sits for him to get "all of the ABs he can handle"? Kendrick? Uribe? Not to mention Turner was very good as a utility guy last year.
I think this is more a play for future years and letting him get his feet wet this year. Uribe and Kendrick are both FAs after the season.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
The guy's been north of 4 WAR the last two years. Couple that with Guerrero's use me or lose me clause and I don't see it happening.
IMO, he gets 2 months of AA ball under his belt and is told to go get the elbow fixed so he's ready for 2016 ST
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Yeah he might get at bats, but they aren't likely coming at the expense of Uribe ir Kendrick unless they are deads0r. Plus he's gonna need at least a month in AAA to get ready for a game speed he's never seen before.
Good 2016 investment, probably less than 250 pas this year imo.
Good 2016 investment, probably less than 250 pas this year imo.
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Giants are giving a bunch of money to Scutaro to be injured, that's kind of the same thing, right?
Eephus
Footballguy
SF is paying $6.67M to Scutaro for this
LA is paying $18M to Kemp in SF, $10M to Haren in Miami, $2.5M to Dee Gordon in Miami, $4.5M to Erisbel Arruebarrena in AAA, $9.5M to Brian Wilson to stay away, $8.5M to Brandon League to suck and $18M to Andre Ethier and $6.5M to Alex Guerrero to sit on the bench. If you add in Olivera's salary and pro-rated bonus, that's a total of $87.5M or the payroll of a small market team.
I am surprised the Giants didn't make a stronger play for Olivera.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
But isn't paying Scutaro (or Peavy, or Lincecum) for his past performance what got LA in trouble? Granted LA's awash in money like no other team in baseball history, but SF isn't poor either, and they have their share of dead money. And LA has a big share of theirs coming off the books next year.
I think Sabean may be the most curious GM in baseball to figure out. Regardless of how much or what you win, it's obvious that it's bad policy to value your own players so highly over any others.
Eephus
Footballguy
I can't criticize Sabean until November. One thing the Giants apparently tried to do was increase AAV and try to reduce the contract length. They missed out on the upper tier FAs in part because of this. Posey, Cain and Pence have a lot of money coming but the Giants are pretty flexible beyond those three. Cain is the only bad deal of the three but some bounce back to 3 WAR isn't out of the question.
At some point, even the Dodgers have some payroll limits. Friedman talked about financial restraint when he took the job but I don't see any path for them to get anywhere near the luxury tax threshold for years. He's a smart guy so I'm sure Olivera's bonus is structured in the most cap advantageous way possible. 6/$62.5M is still a big chunk of change no matter how you parse it.
At some point, even the Dodgers have some payroll limits. Friedman talked about financial restraint when he took the job but I don't see any path for them to get anywhere near the luxury tax threshold for years. He's a smart guy so I'm sure Olivera's bonus is structured in the most cap advantageous way possible. 6/$62.5M is still a big chunk of change no matter how you parse it.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Eephus
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
If your wife took a significant amount of saivngs, went to Vegas (or a cardroom, I guess in CA you don't have to fly out that far), put it all on one hand of 21, and then hit a blackjack, would you be critical of her actions?
If there were some magical method to winning in the playoffs, SF would be out-sized favorites in Vegas to win the Series right now. But they're not, they're middle-ish in the pack. We're back to 0-0, LA already has a big advantage in terms of payroll, a huge advantage in terms of its farm system, and now it has a front office that seems to have a pretty good idea of how to wield both. I dunno, I would be somewhat concerned with pinning hopes of staying with them on the likes of Casey McGeehee and Jake Peavy.
If there were some magical method to winning in the playoffs, SF would be out-sized favorites in Vegas to win the Series right now. But they're not, they're middle-ish in the pack. We're back to 0-0, LA already has a big advantage in terms of payroll, a huge advantage in terms of its farm system, and now it has a front office that seems to have a pretty good idea of how to wield both. I dunno, I would be somewhat concerned with pinning hopes of staying with them on the likes of Casey McGeehee and Jake Peavy.
Eephus
Footballguy
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
I agree that Uribe is a serviceable player, but its not like he's entrenched at 3B. They've been talking about sliding HanRam over for years, but he always balked at the idea. They got a shiny new toy with Olivera and cant wait to show off. If he can show any signs of life at all, I just dont see a guy like Uribe stopping them from doing it.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
A 4 WAR is just a tiny bit better than serviceable.
He's 36 and his production could easily fall off this year, so you have that going for you
And I see no reason to only focus on Uribe. As I posted above, there are plenty of other factors working against HO getting playing time.
He's 36 and his production could easily fall off this year, so you have that going for you
And I see no reason to only focus on Uribe. As I posted above, there are plenty of other factors working against HO getting playing time.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I went to a Dodger game two years ago and Uribe hit 3 HRs so I don't think he's losing ABs to this ####### guy.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
This is kinda how I feel too. With an injury, he could be up sooner. I feel like they gave Guerrero a decent amount of money too and don't appear to be in any rush to give him PT. Olivera is a lot more, but there's also not really a need just yet. I'll say 100 ABs, 15-3-15-270
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Well OK, now we'll get back on track.
