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Odds That Both Mariota and Winston Are Busts? (1 Viewer)

cstu

cstu

Footballguy
Here are the times since 1990 that two QB's were taken top 5:

Luck/Griffin

Stafford/Sanchez (#5)

Eli/Rivers (#4)

Carr/Harrington (#3)

Couch/McNabb

Peyton/Leaf

McNair/Collins (#5)

Bledsoe/Mirer
Click to expand...
Out of the 8 times this has happened, only one time (Carr/Harrington) were both QB's busts. Seems like the odds are good that at least one of Mariota/Winston will develop into a good QB.

Why do I post this? I did the unthinkable - I drafted Winston after I had already drafted Mariota. :shock:

 
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cstu said:
Here are the times since 1990 that two QB's were taken top 5:

Luck/Griffin

Stafford/Sanchez

Eli/Rivers

Carr/Harrington

Couch/McNabb

Peyton/Leaf

McNair/Collins

Bledsoe/Mirer
Click to expand...
Out of the 8 times this has happened, only one time (Carr/Harrington) were both QB's busts. Seems like the odds are good that at least one of Mariota/Winston will develop into a good QB.

Why do I post this? I did the unthinkable - I drafted Winston after I had already drafted Mariota. :shock:
Click to expand...
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
 
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
Click to expand...
Won't disagree. Looking at this small sample size the #1 pick has a 75% chance of working out while it's a 25% chance for the 2nd QB taken in the top 5.

 
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cstu said:
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
Click to expand...
Won't disagree. Looking at this small sample size the #1 pick has a 75% chance of working out while it's a 25% chance for the 2nd QB taken in the top 5.
Click to expand...
This isn't a sample; it's barely a collection of anecdotes. Is Kerry Collins really a bust? His career stats look a whole lot like Drew Bledsoe's, and he went to two Pro Bowls. Is RGIII after less than three years, once of which ended in the Pro Bowl?

 
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CalBear said:
cstu said:
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
Click to expand...
Won't disagree. Looking at this small sample size the #1 pick has a 75% chance of working out while it's a 25% chance for the 2nd QB taken in the top 5.
Click to expand...
This isn't a sample; it's barely a collection of anecdotes. Is Kerry Collins really a bust? His career stats look a whole lot like Drew Bledsoe's, and he went to two Pro Bowls. Is RGIII after less than three years, once of which ended in the Pro Bowl?
Click to expand...
Collins had one top 10 season (#9) and it wasn't until his 6th season. In FF he would have been waiver material for years. Bledsoe was a top 10 QB six times, including #6 in his 2nd year.

Griffin was a stud his rookie year so I'm not comfortable writing him off as a bust because of talent. Injuries have drastically altered his career. There's also a possibility he can still turn his career around.

Of the other two QB's drafted #2 besides Griffin, Leaf was a complete mess mentally and Mirer appeared to be a reach at the time (hyped because Bill Walsh compared him to Montana). The Seahawks were still able to get a 1st out of the Bears for him after his 4th year even though he looked like a bust.

 
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I think one could be an average QB and have long career, mostly as a backup. The other will be an afterthought within 5 years.

 
Rookie_Whisperer said:
cstu said:
Here are the times since 1990 that two QB's were taken top 5:

Luck/Griffin

Stafford/Sanchez

Eli/Rivers

Carr/Harrington

Couch/McNabb

Peyton/Leaf

McNair/Collins

Bledsoe/Mirer
Click to expand...
Out of the 8 times this has happened, only one time (Carr/Harrington) were both QB's busts. Seems like the odds are good that at least one of Mariota/Winston will develop into a good QB.

Why do I post this? I did the unthinkable - I drafted Winston after I had already drafted Mariota. :shock:
Click to expand...
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
Click to expand...
Did any of the top picks have character concerns?

Never would have thought cstu would draft Winston.

 
cstu said:
CalBear said:
cstu said:
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
Click to expand...
Won't disagree. Looking at this small sample size the #1 pick has a 75% chance of working out while it's a 25% chance for the 2nd QB taken in the top 5.
Click to expand...
This isn't a sample; it's barely a collection of anecdotes. Is Kerry Collins really a bust? His career stats look a whole lot like Drew Bledsoe's, and he went to two Pro Bowls. Is RGIII after less than three years, once of which ended in the Pro Bowl?
Click to expand...
Collins had one top 10 season (#9) and it wasn't until his 6th season. In FF he would have been waiver material for years. Bledsoe was a top 10 QB six times, including #6 in his 2nd year.

Griffin was a stud his rookie year so I'm not comfortable writing him off as a bust because of talent. Injuries have drastically altered his career. There's also a possibility he can still turn his career around.

Of the other two QB's drafted #2 besides Griffin, Leaf was a complete mess mentally and Mirer appeared to be a reach at the time (hyped because Bill Walsh compared him to Montana). The Seahawks were still able to get a 1st out of the Bears for him after his 4th year even though he looked like a bust.
Click to expand...
12th all-time in passing yards. I get what you're saying in terms of fantasy but part of it was because he started his career on such a crappy team. Don't think he could be could be called a bust.

 
FUBAR said:
Rookie_Whisperer said:
cstu said:
Here are the times since 1990 that two QB's were taken top 5:

Luck/Griffin

Stafford/Sanchez

Eli/Rivers

Carr/Harrington

Couch/McNabb

Peyton/Leaf

McNair/Collins

Bledsoe/Mirer
Click to expand...
Out of the 8 times this has happened, only one time (Carr/Harrington) were both QB's busts. Seems like the odds are good that at least one of Mariota/Winston will develop into a good QB.

Why do I post this? I did the unthinkable - I drafted Winston after I had already drafted Mariota. :shock:
Click to expand...
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
Click to expand...
Did any of the top picks have character concerns?

Never would have thought cstu would draft Winston.
Click to expand...
I think they call it a hedge.

 
cstu said:
CalBear said:
cstu said:
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
Click to expand...
Won't disagree. Looking at this small sample size the #1 pick has a 75% chance of working out while it's a 25% chance for the 2nd QB taken in the top 5.
Click to expand...
This isn't a sample; it's barely a collection of anecdotes. Is Kerry Collins really a bust? His career stats look a whole lot like Drew Bledsoe's, and he went to two Pro Bowls. Is RGIII after less than three years, once of which ended in the Pro Bowl?
Click to expand...
Collins had one top 10 season (#9) and it wasn't until his 6th season. In FF he would have been waiver material for years. Bledsoe was a top 10 QB six times, including #6 in his 2nd year.

Griffin was a stud his rookie year so I'm not comfortable writing him off as a bust because of talent. Injuries have drastically altered his career. There's also a possibility he can still turn his career around.

Of the other two QB's drafted #2 besides Griffin, Leaf was a complete mess mentally and Mirer appeared to be a reach at the time (hyped because Bill Walsh compared him to Montana). The Seahawks were still able to get a 1st out of the Bears for him after his 4th year even though he looked like a bust.
Click to expand...
The question seemed to be about whether they'd develop into good QB's. Not sure fantasy stats are relevant here. Is Alex Smith a bust so far? How many top ten fantasy seasons did Troy Aikman have? He was FF waiver material his whole career.

 
CalBear said:
cstu said:
Looks like Mariota is the most likely to bust after looking at your breakdown.
Click to expand...
Won't disagree. Looking at this small sample size the #1 pick has a 75% chance of working out while it's a 25% chance for the 2nd QB taken in the top 5.
Click to expand...
This isn't a sample; it's barely a collection of anecdotes. Is Kerry Collins really a bust? His career stats look a whole lot like Drew Bledsoe's, and he went to two Pro Bowls. Is RGIII after less than three years, once of which ended in the Pro Bowl?
Click to expand...
I'd wouldn't label Collins or Sanchez as "busts" - "disappointments based on expectations" may be a better descriptions. Collins had a solid but unspectacular career and Sanchez played well early in his career, lost confidence and fell apart, but resurrected himself a bit last season.

Agreed on RGIII as well.

 
Local radio show here in DC was attempting to put the odds of either getting a 2nd contract with their current team. They ended up with lower odds for Winston getting that done than Mariota.

 
tangfoot said:
2/8 x 6/8 = 3/16
Click to expand...
Thank you, haha. My response was going to be "P(Mariota busts) * P(Winston busts)." Though if you're asking odds for them both busting, not probability of them both busting, then I guess the answer is really "[P(Mariota busts) * P(Winston busts)] / (1 - [P(Mariota busts) * P(Winston busts)])," or ~24%.

 
Around a 15-20% chance that both bust, depending on the definition of "bust". (More like 10% if you count Sanchez & Alex Smith as non-busts.)

I'm figuring that each of them has about a 40-45% chance of busting (based on the track record of top 5 picks), and that they're independent.

 
Bri said:
Are guys that are dinks about contract negotiations more or less apt to succeed?
Click to expand...
Griffin took 2.5 months to sign.

Different days due to the new CBA, but McNabb and Leaf took over 3 months to sign.

Think it's more complicated than usual when a second QB is taken at #2.

 
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cstu said:
Bri said:
Are guys that are dinks about contract negotiations more or less apt to succeed?
Click to expand...
Griffin took 2.5 months to sign.

Different days due to the new CBA, but McNabb and Leaf took over 3 months to sign.

Think it's more complicated than usual when a second QB is taken at #2.
Click to expand...
Really? And he was so fun and great as a rook. That's interesting.

I would think they had better be there learning the new playbook and speed of the game and all they can

 
Bri said:
cstu said:
Bri said:
Are guys that are dinks about contract negotiations more or less apt to succeed?
Click to expand...
Griffin took 2.5 months to sign.

Different days due to the new CBA, but McNabb and Leaf took over 3 months to sign.

Think it's more complicated than usual when a second QB is taken at #2.
Click to expand...
Really? And he was so fun and great as a rook. That's interesting.

I would think they had better be there learning the new playbook and speed of the game and all they can
Click to expand...
Griffin was still at OTAs despite not having a contract. The holdup in his contract was also over offsets and he was able to get it with no offsets.

 
So far they look like the first top 5 drafted QB duo that has been successful since Eli and Rivers.

 
This is going to cause more teams without QBs to tank & overdraft 1st round QBs. Which should lead to another decade of bust.

 
And thus we see how meaningless conclusions based upon small sample sizes are when considering wholly independent events, most especially when human performance is involved.

I think some here miss that completely.

 
As of today, Mariota is 9th in QBR and 12th in Passer Rating.

Winston is 15th and 25th respectively.

Both are playing impressively. Winston looks like a true leader and has kept his nose clean.

I'd say MM 5% chance, Winston 10% at this point.

 
Bronco Billy said:
And thus we see how meaningless conclusions based upon small sample sizes are when considering wholly independent events, most especially when human performance is involved.

I think some here miss that completely.
Click to expand...
They are not 'wholly independent events', they are the times where two organizations believed there were two QB's worth drafting with top 5 picks. History has shown that if two teams believe in QB's enough to do that then it's likely one of the QB's will be successful.

 
cstu said:
Bronco Billy said:
And thus we see how meaningless conclusions based upon small sample sizes are when considering wholly independent events, most especially when human performance is involved.

I think some here miss that completely.
Click to expand...
They are not 'wholly independent events', they are the times where two organizations believed there were two QB's worth drafting with top 5 picks. History has shown that if two teams believe in QB's enough to do that then it's likely one of the QB's will be successful.
Click to expand...
Given that Winston and Mariotta were not drafted in previous years and will not be drafted in subsequent years defined them as wholly independent events.

That you are trying to apply previous data for QBs who are not these two speaks to my second point exactly.

 
That you are trying to apply previous data for QBs who are not these two speaks to my second point exactly.
Click to expand...
Do you ignore what round players were drafted in?

 
Buckna said:
Simultaneous implosion? People have been saying these guys suck for multiple seasons now.
Click to expand...
Well those of us will NFL talent evaluating skills. Of course the Bucs have a coach who has no evaluating skills and is riding his QB bust to the unemployment line and retirement which is where he should have stayed to begin with.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He made a bet with a few posters in the FFA on the results of the 2016 Presidential Election where he lost $4,000 (??) - and then ghosted without paying up.
Click to expand...
Seriously?  Who bets on the fing prez election 

 
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