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Who is going to catch the 440 completions from Brees? (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Lot's of targets to go around in New Orleans, who is going to catch them all?

Brandin Cooks looked decent but although he averaged 5 catches per game, he didn't do a lot with them. When he got hurt (red flag) he had caught 53 for 550 and 3. Those are good compiler stats but that only placed him at around WR26 at the point of his injury. So I'm not sure he's going to thrive now suddenly (or stay healthy). Even if he does stay healthy, he's WR2 material.

And say he catches 90 balls....that still leaves roughly 350 for the rest of the Saints to catch. Who gets those?

 
Sabertooth said:
Brandin Cooks looked decent but although he averaged 5 catches per game, he didn't do a lot with them. When he got hurt (red flag) he had caught 53 for 550 and 3.
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I know you love a good :fishing: , but I'll bite here. How does breaking a bone in his hand raise a red flag?

 
I'm not so sure Brees has 440 completions this season. I think they go more run heavy. They beefed up the OL and brought back Ingram and signed Spiller.

With losing Stills and Graham, there isn't much there for them at WR outside of Cooks and Colston. Does Joe Morgan contribute more? Josh Hill? No idea. Cooks is probably the only WR I want and I'm staying away from Brees in drafts.

 
I can see Ingram/KRob combining for 30-40

Spiller 70-80 (if healthy)

Cooks 100

Colston 60-70

Hill 50

Toon 30-40

Combination of others (Morgan, Coleman, Watson, etc) 50

390-430 completions. If I had to guess

 
Players with 337 targets have left NO, this really is where it's at. Start with Spiller, then you're looking at 7 past FAs at WR and TE, a disappointing Toon, and a solid Watson. For those saying the usual 400+ completions and ~5000 yards is not going to happen, fine start with the floor. The defense may be better, it may not, they just took more defensive rookies in the first 7 rounds since 1981, the personnel will be different but also inexperienced. I think this situation is at least as enticing as NE two years ago when Edelman and Vereen emerged, someone new is getting a bucket of targets this year.

 
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Spiller is going to catch a ton of passes this year. If he plays 16 games, I'd say 80 is a decent baseline given what Thomas and Sproles did even while sharing the receiving looks out of the backfield. I honestly wouldn't be totally shocked if Spiller came close to the 100 catch mark given the way Brees and Payton target their RBs.

 
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.

 
Payton talks a good game about understanding the formula that won the Superbowl. The over-simplification would be to say "run more" but there's more to it. The defense has been a huge part to the success of the Brees years. They were able to deny teams early, stake themselves a lead with a quick strike, up-tempo offense, and salt it away with the ground game. In recent years, the defense has been uneven with yards allowed or fewer big plays (sacks or turnovers).

Honestly, I'm not sure the Saints have the right personnel to have a pass heavy attack. The rebuilding of the o-line was as much as protecting Brees as it was preparing the ground game maybe.

I think Brandin will be in the slot a ton. He's a better option than Hill. Spiller is a great option catching and in space but he's better equipped actually running the ball than Sproles. He and Brandin will give defenses fits when on the field together. Toon should get the nod opposite Colston outside.

 
saintfool said:
Honestly, I'm not sure the Saints have the right personnel to have a pass heavy attack. The rebuilding of the o-line was as much as protecting Brees as it was preparing the ground game maybe.
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Here's where the Saints have ranked among all 32 teams in pass attempts each season since Payton became HC: 5, 1, 1, 15, 2, 2, 4, 2.

If you want to believe that Payton's going to look at their current personnel on offense and decide to suddenly morph into a 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense in 2015, I can't stop you ... but the statistical evidence to date certainly doesn't support it.

I think it's more instructive to look at attempts rather than completions, anyway, and during the past five years the Saints have been remarkably consistent at between 650-670 PA each season. I could see shaving maybe 5-7% off that average, but that still leaves over 600 PA to go around - or just over 400 completions at Brees' career completion % - and that's really a worst-case scenario IMO.

Initial (and obvious) conclusion: Cooks is gonna be a PPR monster this season. As to where the other 300 catches will wind up ... your guess is as good as mine.

 
The more I think about this the more I'm convinced this is a major FF opportunity. Cooks and Spiller seem poised to have gigantic years. That still leaves ~250 completions to go around. Maybe 50 to Hill/Watson, 60 to Colston (perhaps a great value this year, if he has anything left), 60 to a combo of depth players, where does that leave us? Another 80 to go? Wow. If we're convinced Toon is the WR3 here, maybe 40-60 there. I think that leaves a little margin of error if they really do run the ball more this year (I doubt it). It also leaves a little more upside to Cooks/Spiller/Colston above the upside that is already built in. In past years I have avoided Saints receivers that weren't named Jimmy Graham. This year might be different.

 
if colston plays all 16 games he should be a solid WR2 this year.... but it seems unlikely he'll be able to stay on the field. unless ingram gets hurt wouldnt spiller simply fill the PT role? cooks was streaky last year with most of his production coming during home games. I don't know what to make of this team... I'd have to guess most FF players will share this concern and if you are willing to take a chance on some of the pieces of this offense you could end up with a steal

 
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When the dust settles in January, I think plenty of folks are going to be absolutely shocked at Colston's #'s, barring injury.

Plenty of WR are still productive well into their 30's. Ingram/Robinson present a legitimate ground game that defensive personnel have to account for. Stills is gone, but they have plenty of speed merchants who can take the top of a defense and open things up short and mid-range. Spiller and Cooks are going to be giving D-Coord's and back 7's fits chasing them all over the field. Colston is a monster of a target, he's a beast as well, very strong for a WR. With the Saints scheme, you really can't double cover anyone, and there isn't a CB in the NFL he can't handle 1 on 1 from a physicality standpoint. He's as savvy a route-runner as they come, and knows how to find soft spots in zones. Most importantly, he and Brees have a long, trusting relationship. Colston is who he's going to look for when he needs a 1st down, and when he needs a security blanket.

Yes, you have to take the potential injury risk into account, but that's somewhat factored into his ADP, which is ridiculously low if you believe he can stay healthy. Personally, I do, and I'll gladly take him where he falls, because I think that if anyone absorbs Graham's production in the 2015 version of this offense, it's going to be Colston, not Josh Hill or Ben Watson. IMHO, of course.

 
I love Colston, but 32, bad knees, and production declining two years in a row is a pretty scary blend. Plus, watching him the last two years, he really just can't seperate, at all, anymore -- and last year he struggled with drops also. I'd love to see a big bounce back year, as he's always been the quiet classy pro among all the diva WRs, but I just don't think he has it in him physically to be much more than a decent possession guy in the NFL or a meh WR3 in FF.

 
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
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They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.

 
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
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It's all relative. If by "more run heavy" people mean a ratio of 450 runs / 600 passes instead of their normal 400 / 650 (or even more pass heavy), then yeah, sure, I can see that. If they are thinking Ingram is going to be the focal point getting 300 carries, then they're in for a rude awakening IMO.
 
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How about Brandon Coleman? 6'6, big target. What are the knocks against him?

 
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Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
It's all relative. If by "more run heavy" people mean a ratio of 450 runs / 600 passes instead of their normal 400 / 650 (or even more pass heavy), then yeah, sure, I can see that. If they are thinking Ingram is going to be the focal point getting 300 carries, then they're in for a rude awakening IMO.
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That's not what I meant by run heavy. I was meaning more run heavy compared to what the Saints offense has been. I'm not suggesting Ingram/Spiller/Robinson are going to combine for 500 carries. Just that I don't think the Saints will be the pass happy team we're used to.

 
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
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You ever see those captain obvious commercials? This would be a statement in that commercial. :P

Why do people act like stills was something great anyways? he wasnt that great and was a product of Brees.

The only change i see is switching graham for Spiller. any chump can do what Stills did with his 80 opportunities.

So they do more check downs to a rb then they go to the TE, whats the big deal? why the over reaction?

the Saints have made something out of nothing with Colston and Moore even Devery Henderson. Stills if some think he is so great. Why not Toon or Coleman and even Hill? It isnt like we have not seen those type of Saints before.

 
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They will probably run more, but they will still pass a ton and Brees will be between 4500-5000 yards like usual. There will be between 400-450 completions to go around and the question still stands, who is going to catch all those? Love or hate on Colston all you want, he will get some of them. Graham, Stills and Pierre Thomas are all gone, so they have to go somewhere. Spiller will be a PPR monster, bigger than any the Saints have ever had for a RB. I think the clear answer is that Spiller and Cooks dominate this year, and the million dollar question for me is who emerges as a legit WR2 from New Orleans? I don't see the TE by committee coming close to taking as many targets without Graham, so that leaves more to the RBs and WRs. Saints have been averaging over 125 receptions to RBs over the last few years and they just brought in Spiller.

So, does Colston rebound to something like 70 for 900 and 9 tds? Or does Toon step up and have a line like that? If the answer to either of those is no, then that means even bigger numbers for Cooks and Spiller.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
It's all relative. If by "more run heavy" people mean a ratio of 450 runs / 600 passes instead of their normal 400 / 650 (or even more pass heavy), then yeah, sure, I can see that. If they are thinking Ingram is going to be the focal point getting 300 carries, then they're in for a rude awakening IMO.
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Again, I don't think they become SEA.

They also released Pierre Thomas, and Spiller isn't known as a work horse.

Last year Ingram set a career high in carries (226) in 13 games with 9 starts. He has missed 14 games in four seasons, so obviously his volume could be contingent on health. Game script, too (if they are behind a lot, not as conducive to running as if they are ahead or close). Ingram averaged 17+ carries a game in 2014, which would yield 275+ carries if he played 16 games. Are you predicting he will carry less than last year (or maybe injury, which wouldn't be that far fetched)?

* Ingram's stats

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/I/IngrMa01.htm

 
VarsityBlues123 said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
You ever see those captain obvious commercials? This would be a statement in that commercial. :P

Why do people act like stills was something great anyways? he wasnt that great and was a product of Brees.

The only change i see is switching graham for Spiller. any chump can do what Stills did with his 80 opportunities.

So they do more check downs to a rb then they go to the TE, whats the big deal? why the over reaction?

It isnt like we have not seen those type of Saints before.
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That's fair, but who is the new chump (or two, or three) going to be?

 
barackdhouse said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
You ever see those captain obvious commercials? This would be a statement in that commercial. :P

Why do people act like stills was something great anyways? he wasnt that great and was a product of Brees.

The only change i see is switching graham for Spiller. any chump can do what Stills did with his 80 opportunities.

So they do more check downs to a rb then they go to the TE, whats the big deal? why the over reaction?

It isnt like we have not seen those type of Saints before.
Click to expand...
That's fair, but who is the new chump (or two, or three) going to be?
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Cooks? Hill? Coleman? Jones? Colston may feel better to handle more volume. More check down to Spiller. Its all there.

 
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VarsityBlues123 said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
You ever see those captain obvious commercials? This would be a statement in that commercial. :P

Why do people act like stills was something great anyways? he wasnt that great and was a product of Brees.

The only change i see is switching graham for Spiller. any chump can do what Stills did with his 80 opportunities.

So they do more check downs to a rb then they go to the TE, whats the big deal? why the over reaction?

the Saints have made something out of nothing with Colston and Moore even Devery Henderson. Stills if some think he is so great. Why not Toon or Coleman and even Hill? It isnt like we have not seen those type of Saints before.
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The "only" change sounds pretty significant. Graham and Dez Bryant are among the receiving TD leaders in recent seasons, I'm not sure Brees is yukking it up as much as you at the subtraction. :) Graham was arguably the most dangerous red zone threat in the league (career rebound leader at Miami), they could also have more rushing TDs. They could pass more and run less, however you want to characterize it, it could be more nuanced than the "that is the most ridiculous post I've ever heard in my life" general tenor of your posts in the thread.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/591/drew-brees

Coach Sean Payton said the Saints are trying to "reduce the amount of points you may need to score to win a game."
The Saints are trying to shift their identity from a fastbreak, pass-happy, offensive juggernaut to more of a ball-control team. It's a massive schematic shift, but one that was probably necessary with Drew Brees showing signs of decline at age 36 and zero trips to the NFC title game since winning the Super Bowl in 2009. Expect the 2015 version of the Saints to lean heavily on power back Mark Ingram while placing an emphasis on major defensive improvement. Brees, who has lost Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills this offseason, can't be counted on for the 650 attempts we're accustomed to. Mar 24 - 8:38
 
Coeur de Lion said:
Spiller is going to catch a ton of passes this year. If he plays 16 games, I'd say 80 is a decent baseline given what Thomas and Sproles did even while sharing the receiving looks out of the backfield. I honestly wouldn't be totally shocked if Spiller came close to the 100 catch mark given the way Brees and Payton target their RBs.
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THIS. I've already traded for him in two leagues. In addition to possibly leading the league in RB-catches, he'll have plenty of carries as well. The only issue I see is if Khiry Robinson pushes this into some type of 3 headed RBBC but I don't think NO spent the money they did on Spiller with that in mind. Spiller was grossly mis-used in Buffalo and he specifically targeted NO in free agency because of their system. I'm looking for a huge year out of him.

 
Bob Magaw said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
It's all relative. If by "more run heavy" people mean a ratio of 450 runs / 600 passes instead of their normal 400 / 650 (or even more pass heavy), then yeah, sure, I can see that. If they are thinking Ingram is going to be the focal point getting 300 carries, then they're in for a rude awakening IMO.
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Again, I don't think they become SEA.

They also released Pierre Thomas, and Spiller isn't known as a work horse.

Last year Ingram set a career high in carries (226) in 13 games with 9 starts. He has missed 14 games in four seasons, so obviously his volume could be contingent on health. Game script, too (if they are behind a lot, not as conducive to running as if they are ahead or close). Ingram averaged 17+ carries a game in 2014, which would yield 275+ carries if he played 16 games. Are you predicting he will carry less than last year (or maybe injury, which wouldn't be that far fetched)?

* Ingram's stats

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/I/IngrMa01.htm
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IMO Spiller (if 100%) is FAR tougher competition than anything that Ingram has had to face this far. Ingram, IMO, is JAG. I expect Spiller and Ingram to split maybe 350 carries roughly evenly, while Spiller goes ballistic in the passing game. Overall, the Saints might run a touch more, but they'll still win or lose based on Brees' arm.

 
Graham - 124 targets

Stills - 85 targets

P Thomas - 55 targets

Cadet - 51 targets

315 targets that must go elsewhere, call it 300 if they run a little more. I think this is a pretty big deal. I'm not going to draft Colston before the 10th, but I find it pretty difficult to believe that he won't get at least an extra 40 targets this year, unless the wheels completely fall off, hence making the point of this thread that much more potent. Keep in mind that Spiller, Cooks, and Ingram all have injury question marks. Also, Spiller isn't going to be taking the Graham targets, he'll be taking the Thomas and Cadet targets, then maybe a few more from Stills/Graham. There are still a f$@%ing ton of WR targets to account for here.

 
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Mr. Irrelevant said:
saintfool said:
Honestly, I'm not sure the Saints have the right personnel to have a pass heavy attack. The rebuilding of the o-line was as much as protecting Brees as it was preparing the ground game maybe.
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Here's where the Saints have ranked among all 32 teams in pass attempts each season since Payton became HC: 5, 1, 1, 15, 2, 2, 4, 2.

If you want to believe that Payton's going to look at their current personnel on offense and decide to suddenly morph into a 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense in 2015, I can't stop you ... but the statistical evidence to date certainly doesn't support it.

I think it's more instructive to look at attempts rather than completions, anyway, and during the past five years the Saints have been remarkably consistent at between 650-670 PA each season. I could see shaving maybe 5-7% off that average, but that still leaves over 600 PA to go around - or just over 400 completions at Brees' career completion % - and that's really a worst-case scenario IMO.

Initial (and obvious) conclusion: Cooks is gonna be a PPR monster this season. As to where the other 300 catches will wind up ... your guess is as good as mine.
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2009 Superbowl year - Saints finished #7 in rush attempts, #3 in rushing TDs , and #6 in yards on the ground. Saints passing? #15 in attempts, tied for 1st in TDs, and #4 in yards in the air. The Saints defense has been either in the bottom 3rd or half of the league, depending on which metric you use, since the Superbowl. While the Superbowl year the team defense gave up yards, they also were #3 in forcing TOs.

Finally, this is the first season in a long while where there has been significant changes in personnel either by offseason moves (Graham, Stills, Thomas, Grubb, Goodwin, etc) or noticeable player effectiveness/decline (Colston, Evans). Why would you think they're going to keep the formula when they're clearly in transition?

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
It's all relative. If by "more run heavy" people mean a ratio of 450 runs / 600 passes instead of their normal 400 / 650 (or even more pass heavy), then yeah, sure, I can see that. If they are thinking Ingram is going to be the focal point getting 300 carries, then they're in for a rude awakening IMO.
Click to expand...
Again, I don't think they become SEA.

They also released Pierre Thomas, and Spiller isn't known as a work horse.

Last year Ingram set a career high in carries (226) in 13 games with 9 starts. He has missed 14 games in four seasons, so obviously his volume could be contingent on health. Game script, too (if they are behind a lot, not as conducive to running as if they are ahead or close). Ingram averaged 17+ carries a game in 2014, which would yield 275+ carries if he played 16 games. Are you predicting he will carry less than last year (or maybe injury, which wouldn't be that far fetched)?

* Ingram's stats

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/I/IngrMa01.htm
Click to expand...
IMO Spiller (if 100%) is FAR tougher competition than anything that Ingram has had to face this far. Ingram, IMO, is JAG. I expect Spiller and Ingram to split maybe 350 carries roughly evenly, while Spiller goes ballistic in the passing game. Overall, the Saints might run a touch more, but they'll still win or lose based on Brees' arm.
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Spiller has a mixed resume. Two 200+ carry seasons in 2012 and 2013, closer to 75 as a rookie and last year, and about 100 his soph season (2014 the only season he missed more than two games - seven last year). Surprisingly, he only averaged less than 32 receptions per season in a half decade. He could double or even triple that latter average this year, if healthy.

Taking a cursory look at FBG projections, they have Ingram with a slight increase in carries, though that would be a decrease on a prorated basis, over 16 games? They have Spiller with significantly less than an even split of carries, with receptions roughly in the range noted above.

I guess this depends on how much alike or different they see Spiller from Sproles. He had almost 90 carries his first year in NO, and closer to 50 in his last two. He had about 85 receptions his first year, 75 and 70 in his last two. Pierre Thomas is out, but they still have the three headed monster with Khiry Robinson, who at 6'0", 220 lbs., is more sturdily built and ruggedly constructed than Spiller.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5566

Saints signed RB C.J. Spiller to a four-year, $18 million contract with $9 million guaranteed.
No. 1 back Mark Ingram and new No. 2 Spiller are both now under the Saints' control for the next four seasons. As the Saints have moved on from top passing-game targets Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, they appear to be going all-in on a ball-control offense featuring Spiller, Ingram, and Khiry Robinson with lane-creator Max Unger at center. Spiller's usage probably won't change much going from Buffalo to New Orleans, but we'd trust Sean Payton to utilize him in far more effective ways than Doug Marrone did. He'll be back on the fantasy RB2 radar, probably handling 9-14 touches per game. Mar 13 - 12:55 PM
 
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My prediction at this point:

625 passing attempts

420 completions

30 Ingram

70 Spiller

25 other RBs

70 Cooks

50 Colston

40 Coleman

30 Jones

20 Toon

10 other WRs

50 Hill

20 Watson

5 other TEs

In general, this is ignoring injuries, though projecting for at least 6 WRs could imply some missed time by the first 5.

 
saintfool said:
2009 Superbowl year - Saints finished #7 in rush attempts, #3 in rushing TDs , and #6 in yards on the ground. Saints passing? #15 in attempts, tied for 1st in TDs, and #4 in yards in the air. The Saints defense has been either in the bottom 3rd or half of the league, depending on which metric you use, since the Superbowl. While the Superbowl year the team defense gave up yards, they also were #3 in forcing TOs.

Finally, this is the first season in a long while where there has been significant changes in personnel either by offseason moves (Graham, Stills, Thomas, Grubb, Goodwin, etc) or noticeable player effectiveness/decline (Colston, Evans). Why would you think they're going to keep the formula when they're clearly in transition?
Click to expand...
They could pass less like 2009, but that was the only year in the nine years Brees has been with the team that they weren't in the top 5 in pass attempts.

The 2015 still has better receivers than the 2009 team - Cooks/Colston/Spiller/Hill/Toon/whoever else breaks out > Colston/Henderson/Bush/Shockey/Meachem

 
barackdhouse said:
Graham - 124 targets

Stills - 85 targets

P Thomas - 55 targets

Cadet - 51 targets

315 targets that must go elsewhere, call it 300 if they run a little more. I think this is a pretty big deal. I'm not going to draft Colston before the 10th, but I find it pretty difficult to believe that he won't get at least an extra 40 targets this year, unless the wheels completely fall off, hence making the point of this thread that much more potent. Keep in mind that Spiller, Cooks, and Ingram all have injury question marks. Also, Spiller isn't going to be taking the Graham targets, he'll be taking the Thomas and Cadet targets, then maybe a few more from Stills/Graham. There are still a f$@%ing ton of WR targets to account for here.
Click to expand...
So you are projecting Colston for 140+ targets this season? 11 players had that many targets last season.

 
People make a big deal about Cooks' 10.4 YPR but he caught nearly 77% of his targets and had 8 YPT. If a guy is getting you 8 yards every time you throw him the ball while wouldn't you target him 10 times a game?

 
Ok that's probably a bit high, I admit, but if he stays healthy and if he can contribute anything like what he used to, he's going to get more than what he got last year, and there are plenty that need to go somewhere. To me the real question is whether someone in the receiving corps can truly emerge, because if not then they're going to go to Colston, Cooks and Spiller.

 
Just Win Baby said:
barackdhouse said:
Graham - 124 targets

Stills - 85 targets

P Thomas - 55 targets

Cadet - 51 targets

315 targets that must go elsewhere, call it 300 if they run a little more. I think this is a pretty big deal. I'm not going to draft Colston before the 10th, but I find it pretty difficult to believe that he won't get at least an extra 40 targets this year, unless the wheels completely fall off, hence making the point of this thread that much more potent. Keep in mind that Spiller, Cooks, and Ingram all have injury question marks. Also, Spiller isn't going to be taking the Graham targets, he'll be taking the Thomas and Cadet targets, then maybe a few more from Stills/Graham. There are still a f$@%ing ton of WR targets to account for here.
Click to expand...
So you are projecting Colston for 140+ targets this season? 11 players had that many targets last season.
Click to expand...
Also, despite being the Saints' top WR for a decade, Colston has surprisingly only seen 140 targets one time, all the way back in 2007. It could happen, but I'd be pretty surprised if it played out that way.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Just Win Baby said:
barackdhouse said:
Graham - 124 targets

Stills - 85 targets

P Thomas - 55 targets

Cadet - 51 targets

315 targets that must go elsewhere, call it 300 if they run a little more. I think this is a pretty big deal. I'm not going to draft Colston before the 10th, but I find it pretty difficult to believe that he won't get at least an extra 40 targets this year, unless the wheels completely fall off, hence making the point of this thread that much more potent. Keep in mind that Spiller, Cooks, and Ingram all have injury question marks. Also, Spiller isn't going to be taking the Graham targets, he'll be taking the Thomas and Cadet targets, then maybe a few more from Stills/Graham. There are still a f$@%ing ton of WR targets to account for here.
Click to expand...
So you are projecting Colston for 140+ targets this season? 11 players had that many targets last season.
Click to expand...
Also, despite being the Saints' top WR for a decade, Colston has surprisingly only seen 140 targets one time, all the way back in 2007. It could happen, but I'd be pretty surprised if it played out that way.
Click to expand...
Yeah, you guys are right, that's too high. How many times in the last decade have there been this many targets to redistribute, though?

 
saintfool said:
Mr. Irrelevant said:
saintfool said:
Honestly, I'm not sure the Saints have the right personnel to have a pass heavy attack. The rebuilding of the o-line was as much as protecting Brees as it was preparing the ground game maybe.
Click to expand...
Here's where the Saints have ranked among all 32 teams in pass attempts each season since Payton became HC: 5, 1, 1, 15, 2, 2, 4, 2.

If you want to believe that Payton's going to look at their current personnel on offense and decide to suddenly morph into a 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense in 2015, I can't stop you ... but the statistical evidence to date certainly doesn't support it.

I think it's more instructive to look at attempts rather than completions, anyway, and during the past five years the Saints have been remarkably consistent at between 650-670 PA each season. I could see shaving maybe 5-7% off that average, but that still leaves over 600 PA to go around - or just over 400 completions at Brees' career completion % - and that's really a worst-case scenario IMO.

Initial (and obvious) conclusion: Cooks is gonna be a PPR monster this season. As to where the other 300 catches will wind up ... your guess is as good as mine.
Click to expand...
2009 Superbowl year - Saints finished #7 in rush attempts, #3 in rushing TDs , and #6 in yards on the ground. Saints passing? #15 in attempts, tied for 1st in TDs, and #4 in yards in the air. The Saints defense has been either in the bottom 3rd or half of the league, depending on which metric you use, since the Superbowl. While the Superbowl year the team defense gave up yards, they also were #3 in forcing TOs.

Finally, this is the first season in a long while where there has been significant changes in personnel either by offseason moves (Graham, Stills, Thomas, Grubb, Goodwin, etc) or noticeable player effectiveness/decline (Colston, Evans). Why would you think they're going to keep the formula when they're clearly in transition?
Click to expand...
:thumbup: :goodposting:

 
Bob Magaw said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
It's all relative. If by "more run heavy" people mean a ratio of 450 runs / 600 passes instead of their normal 400 / 650 (or even more pass heavy), then yeah, sure, I can see that. If they are thinking Ingram is going to be the focal point getting 300 carries, then they're in for a rude awakening IMO.
Click to expand...
Again, I don't think they become SEA.

They also released Pierre Thomas, and Spiller isn't known as a work horse.

Last year Ingram set a career high in carries (226) in 13 games with 9 starts. He has missed 14 games in four seasons, so obviously his volume could be contingent on health. Game script, too (if they are behind a lot, not as conducive to running as if they are ahead or close). Ingram averaged 17+ carries a game in 2014, which would yield 275+ carries if he played 16 games. Are you predicting he will carry less than last year (or maybe injury, which wouldn't be that far fetched)?

* Ingram's stats

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/I/IngrMa01.htm
Click to expand...
IMO Spiller (if 100%) is FAR tougher competition than anything that Ingram has had to face this far. Ingram, IMO, is JAG. I expect Spiller and Ingram to split maybe 350 carries roughly evenly, while Spiller goes ballistic in the passing game. Overall, the Saints might run a touch more, but they'll still win or lose based on Brees' arm.
Click to expand...
Spiller has a mixed resume. Two 200+ carry seasons in 2012 and 2013, closer to 75 as a rookie and last year, and about 100 his soph season (2014 the only season he missed more than two games - seven last year). Surprisingly, he only averaged less than 32 receptions per season in a half decade. He could double or even triple that latter average this year, if healthy.

Taking a cursory look at FBG projections, they have Ingram with a slight increase in carries, though that would be a decrease on a prorated basis, over 16 games? They have Spiller with significantly less than an even split of carries, with receptions roughly in the range noted above.

I guess this depends on how much alike or different they see Spiller from Sproles. He had almost 90 carries his first year in NO, and closer to 50 in his last two. He had about 85 receptions his first year, 75 and 70 in his last two. Pierre Thomas is out, but they still have the three headed monster with Khiry Robinson, who at 6'0", 220 lbs., is more sturdily built and ruggedly constructed than Spiller.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5566

Saints signed RB C.J. Spiller to a four-year, $18 million contract with $9 million guaranteed.

No. 1 back Mark Ingram and new No. 2 Spiller are both now under the Saints' control for the next four seasons. As the Saints have moved on from top passing-game targets Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, they appear to be going all-in on a ball-control offense featuring Spiller, Ingram, and Khiry Robinson with lane-creator Max Unger at center. Spiller's usage probably won't change much going from Buffalo to New Orleans, but we'd trust Sean Payton to utilize him in far more effective ways than Doug Marrone did. He'll be back on the fantasy RB2 radar, probably handling 9-14 touches per game. Mar 13 - 12:55 PM
Click to expand...
I think Ingram got as much work as he did last year largely by default -- Sproles was gone, PT aging / losing effectiveness / missed time, Robinson just an end of bench backup type IMO. Agree that Spiller's resume is somewhat "mixed," but if that's true, what does that say about Mark Ingram's resume? Spiller has pretty much crushed Ingram in every conceivable metric thus far in their respective careers, despite being in a vastly inferior offense and dealing with stiffer competition for touches in Fred Jackson. We'll see how it plays out come the fall, but I think that anyone looking at Ingram as the RB1 and Spiller as the RB2 (that rotoworld blurb) is in for a rude awakening. I think in PPR Spiller absolutely destroys Ingram this year -- and handily out-produces him in standard as well. Looking at Ingram's career, his carries / game last year are clearly a pretty big departure -- up until last year, NO had been steadily using him less year over year. His targets / receptions are an even bigger outlier, and the career 5.4 YPR indicates that he's a liability in that area.
 
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cstu said:
saintfool said:
2009 Superbowl year - Saints finished #7 in rush attempts, #3 in rushing TDs , and #6 in yards on the ground. Saints passing? #15 in attempts, tied for 1st in TDs, and #4 in yards in the air. The Saints defense has been either in the bottom 3rd or half of the league, depending on which metric you use, since the Superbowl. While the Superbowl year the team defense gave up yards, they also were #3 in forcing TOs.

Finally, this is the first season in a long while where there has been significant changes in personnel either by offseason moves (Graham, Stills, Thomas, Grubb, Goodwin, etc) or noticeable player effectiveness/decline (Colston, Evans). Why would you think they're going to keep the formula when they're clearly in transition?
Click to expand...
They could pass less like 2009, but that was the only year in the nine years Brees has been with the team that they weren't in the top 5 in pass attempts.

The 2015 still has better receivers than the 2009 team - Cooks/Colston/Spiller/Hill/Toon/whoever else breaks out > Colston/Henderson/Bush/Shockey/Meachem
Click to expand...
I don't think it's as clear cut as many casual observers want to make it out to be. Payton has said this same thing about a more balanced playcalling for a few years now. The difference year-to-year, especially in past few, has been the inconsistent defense. Brees has been playing from behind entirely too often and it means more pass attempts. We've quite simply been unable to hold leads or even build on them.

Fixing the defense was the plan last year with players like Harper sent packing (think to the Vernon Davis catch in the playoffs). The slew of injuries, especially in the defensive backfield last year where guys off the street were signed, hurt them most assuredly. This year they addressed the defense again in the draft and in coaching (Dennis Allen is now a "defensive consultant" alongside Ryan). Not all decisions this year were about cutting players was about their cap number (ie Lofton). So it's telling that the Saints are trying to significantly fix the defense in successive seasons, I think. If the Saints can get a better effort from the defense (not so much in yards is needed but TOs which is why Byrd was brought in) then Brees can be more efficient.

There's a lot of other points that I can touch on which make me think the rushing attack will be more consistent. Some of it is Brees while some of it is the change to the offensive side of the team. A lot of it is the pressure I think Payton is under to fix this team after some disappointing seasons. Last year was an embarrassment, pure and simple. The choke jobs in the playoffs since the SB. This season could be a preview into the decline of this franchise.

 
Spiller has done things running the ball that Ingram has never done and can't do. I think Spiller's talent and performance on the turf will garner him more snaps than people have him pencilled in for

There's also much to be written about the Saints line, Unger is a big upgrade but things have to shake out at guard and right tackle. I also am convinced there's some secret plan involving Spiller, Armstead and screens but we shall see.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Spiller has done things running the ball that Ingram has never done and can't do. I think Spiller's talent and performance on the turf will garner him more snaps than people have him pencilled in for

There's also much to be written about the Saints line, Unger is a big upgrade but things have to shake out at guard and right tackle. I also am convinced there's some secret plan involving Spiller, Armstead and screens but we shall see.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

 
Ever since the Saints won the Super bowl there has been conjecture that they are going to become more of the a running team. Yet every year we see the same pass heavy offense. We can come up with all sorts of good reasons why the Saints should change their approach, but Payton is still calling the play. He can't change who he is just as a leopard cannot change it's spots.

I agree that Spiller is in a position to be a PPR monster. I think Hill will be targeted a more (maybe a great deal more) than Watson. Cooks should also get 100+ targets.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Bob Magaw said:
VarsityBlues123 said:
:lmao: at Saints going run heavy. They signed Spiller because they intend to pound the rock between the tackles? No they plan to pass to him a lot, just like Sproles and Bush. Saints signed offenseive lineman, must mean they will run. Dont OLineman pass block too? This is going to be another situation that come December people will be back peddling saying what many do around here when they are wrong "Well everyone saw the writing on the wall they were gonna run." No, you mean everyone read what Rotoworld and people here were saying and "thought" they were going to run.
Click to expand...
They re-signed Ingram and traded Graham for a center and a first they used on an ILB. Also traded away Stills. They might run more (not that they turn into SEA overnight). Brees could be approaching his twilight years, and that would protect him from being hit as often.
Click to expand...
It's all relative. If by "more run heavy" people mean a ratio of 450 runs / 600 passes instead of their normal 400 / 650 (or even more pass heavy), then yeah, sure, I can see that. If they are thinking Ingram is going to be the focal point getting 300 carries, then they're in for a rude awakening IMO.
Click to expand...
Again, I don't think they become SEA.

They also released Pierre Thomas, and Spiller isn't known as a work horse.

Last year Ingram set a career high in carries (226) in 13 games with 9 starts. He has missed 14 games in four seasons, so obviously his volume could be contingent on health. Game script, too (if they are behind a lot, not as conducive to running as if they are ahead or close). Ingram averaged 17+ carries a game in 2014, which would yield 275+ carries if he played 16 games. Are you predicting he will carry less than last year (or maybe injury, which wouldn't be that far fetched)?

* Ingram's stats

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/I/IngrMa01.htm
Click to expand...
IMO Spiller (if 100%) is FAR tougher competition than anything that Ingram has had to face this far. Ingram, IMO, is JAG. I expect Spiller and Ingram to split maybe 350 carries roughly evenly, while Spiller goes ballistic in the passing game. Overall, the Saints might run a touch more, but they'll still win or lose based on Brees' arm.
Click to expand...
Spiller has a mixed resume. Two 200+ carry seasons in 2012 and 2013, closer to 75 as a rookie and last year, and about 100 his soph season (2014 the only season he missed more than two games - seven last year). Surprisingly, he only averaged less than 32 receptions per season in a half decade. He could double or even triple that latter average this year, if healthy.

Taking a cursory look at FBG projections, they have Ingram with a slight increase in carries, though that would be a decrease on a prorated basis, over 16 games? They have Spiller with significantly less than an even split of carries, with receptions roughly in the range noted above.

I guess this depends on how much alike or different they see Spiller from Sproles. He had almost 90 carries his first year in NO, and closer to 50 in his last two. He had about 85 receptions his first year, 75 and 70 in his last two. Pierre Thomas is out, but they still have the three headed monster with Khiry Robinson, who at 6'0", 220 lbs., is more sturdily built and ruggedly constructed than Spiller.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5566

Saints signed RB C.J. Spiller to a four-year, $18 million contract with $9 million guaranteed.

No. 1 back Mark Ingram and new No. 2 Spiller are both now under the Saints' control for the next four seasons. As the Saints have moved on from top passing-game targets Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, they appear to be going all-in on a ball-control offense featuring Spiller, Ingram, and Khiry Robinson with lane-creator Max Unger at center. Spiller's usage probably won't change much going from Buffalo to New Orleans, but we'd trust Sean Payton to utilize him in far more effective ways than Doug Marrone did. He'll be back on the fantasy RB2 radar, probably handling 9-14 touches per game. Mar 13 - 12:55 PM
Click to expand...
I think Ingram got as much work as he did last year largely by default -- Sproles was gone, PT aging / losing effectiveness / missed time, Robinson just an end of bench backup type IMO. Agree that Spiller's resume is somewhat "mixed," but if that's true, what does that say about Mark Ingram's resume? Spiller has pretty much crushed Ingram in every conceivable metric thus far in their respective careers, despite being in a vastly inferior offense and dealing with stiffer competition for touches in Fred Jackson. We'll see how it plays out come the fall, but I think that anyone looking at Ingram as the RB1 and Spiller as the RB2 (that rotoworld blurb) is in for a rude awakening. I think in PPR Spiller absolutely destroys Ingram this year -- and handily out-produces him in standard as well. Looking at Ingram's career, his carries / game last year are clearly a pretty big departure -- up until last year, NO had been steadily using him less year over year. His targets / receptions are an even bigger outlier, and the career 5.4 YPR indicates that he's a liability in that area.
Click to expand...
You are certainly entitled to your opinion, I think others may be in for a rude awakening if they are completely discounting the possibility NO may be envisioning Spiller in more of a complementary role to Ingram. Maybe something like between Sproles and Gio Bernard? For one thing, he is smallish compared to Ingram, they may want to put him on some form of pitch count to preserve him for the season. I don't question that he is a far more explosive and overall talented RB than Ingram, and do think he could make up for some lost carries with a boost in touches, and be featured heavily in the passing game, relative to Ingram.

If Robinson is a JAG, so to speak, that increases the chance that, however the carries are distributed, Ingram's relative SHARE could be greater than when they were being divided by Thomas and Sproles.

It isn't just the rotoworld blurb. Your carries estimates for Ingram are significantly lower, and for Spiller significantly higher, than the FBG projections consensus (including Dodds, Henry, Tremblay, Wood). We'll see. Not controversial to suggest Spiller will be more valuable in PPR than standard leagues.

A characterization by somebody else that prompted some of this, "run heavy", I didn't take to mean running more than passing, just running more than in recent seasons. There could be some room for agreement here. Ingram could run more than before, Brees could pass less, and they could still win on the strength of Brees arm. I wasn't implying they are going to morph into SEA overnight. I'm not sure if it is a consideration for many, but running more would be one way to protect Brees from getting hit as often in the twilight of his career, and possibly extend it.

 
I'd guess it'll be more like 425 completions, with a distribution that's something like:

85 Cooks
80 Spiller
75 Colston
45 wr3
40 Hill
35 other rb (mostly Ingram)

35 other te (mostly Watson)

30 other wr

 
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