http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/nfl-10-current-players-who-are-locks-to-make-the-hall-of-fame.html/
The list really has 14 names, as they mention Peyton, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers but don't take the time or space to write about them.
The 10 non-QBs:
Larry Fitzgerald
Antonio Gates
Adrian Peterson
Jared Allen
DeMarcus Ware
Darrelle Revis
Charles Woodson
Steve Smith
Jason Witten
Andre Johnson
All are said to be mortal lock HOFers, even if they never played another down. Agree or disagree?
Agree that Peyton, Brady, and Brees, also mentioned in the article, are obvious locks. And Rodgers, too, even if he retired or got hit by a bus today.
IMO Gates is a lock. His stretch from 2004-2010 (505/6616/67 in 104 games) may be the most impressive stretch for a TE in league history.
IMO Woodson is a lock:
- He is #11 all time in interceptions, just 3 interceptions behind #7.
- He is tied for #5 all time in non-offensive TDs.
- He is a 3 time 1st team All Pro and 3 time 2nd team All Pro... and consider that his first 1st team selection was in 1999 and his last 1st team selection was in 2011. That shows a very long stretch of high level play.
- He is one of only 5 cornerbacks in NFL history to win the DPOY award, joining impressive company: Deion, Rod Woodson, Mel Blount, and Lester Hayes.
The rest of them are more questionable IMO. At least if the point is that they are all locks today, even if they never played another snap for whatever reason. If we make reasonable projections forward, I think all of the players named have a chance.
I would have said Peterson was a lock before last year's off field disaster. If he didn't play another snap, I definitely do not think he is a lock; it depends on how much (if at all) voters punish him for that. If he comes back strong this season, and especially if he plays well for 2-3 more seasons, putting this off field stuff further in the past, then IMO he will be a lock.
I think Steve Smith will ultimately fall short. He is close enough to the end that his resume is already written, and it's not good enough. I do not agree that voters will apply the context that some (Harstad, et al.) talk about with him. For the most part, players are judged on their performance in the situations they were in, not how they might have performed in different situations.
If Andre Johnson, Fitz, and Witten never played another snap, I doubt any of them would make it. All of them still have a chance to earn their way in.
Revis is an interesting test case of longevity. He has only played 7 seasons in the NFL but was 1st team All Pro in 4 of them (and never 2nd team All Pro). Unlike Woodson, he has no major awards, like DPOY, though he was arguably more deserving than Woodson in 2009. Ultimately, I think if he never played another snap he would not make it. But reasonable projections for him going forward suggests he should have a great chance to earn his way in.
Allen is #9 in sacks, though that is official sacks, and there are probably a few others who had more (Deacon Jones and Alan Page for sure). He has been 1st team All Pro 4 times. He is on the bubble if he never plays another snap, but it seems likely he will play long enough to earn his way in.
Ware is like Allen. He wouldn't get in if he never played again, but he can certainly earn his way in.
Of others mentioned in the thread,
at Shane Lechler.
IMO Joe Thomas isn't there yet, but he is about as close as an OL with 8 years in the NFL can be. It is reasonable to project him to make it.
Calvin Johnson is certainly not a lock if he never played another snap, but I think it is reasonable to expect he will end up with a better HOF resume than any of the other WRs named in this thread.
As for Julius Peppers, I don't think he has much of a chance. Allen and Ware are both more deserving IMO.