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Disruptive technologies for the future (1 Viewer)

Rove!

Footballguy
Starting a thread to discuss new technologies that will change our lives.

I believe that we are on the verge of a number of breakthroughs that will move the world forward and increase human productivity profoundly.

I also believe that there are a number of challenges this will present as the modern worker will need to be more educated than ever.

3D printing, graphene, gene therapies, driverless cars, robotics, Artificial Intelligence, ubiquitous drones etc

a thread to discuss the tech, as well as the social and economic impact...

 
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ricksmith/2015/07/07/5-incredible-trends-that-will-shape-our-3d-printed-future/

Article Details 5 trends for 3 D printing. For the first one

1. Localized Production For Consumer And Industrial Goods: Biz Stone, Twitter’s co-founder, recently predicted that Nike could be a pure software company in ten years. If this happens, it will be thanks to 3D printing production. In the future, everything you know will be made closer to you. Let’s say one day at home you realize that one of the wheels on your dishwasher has broken. You simply look up the part on the Internet, print it out at home or at your neighborhood commercial 3D printer, and out comes the replacement part. Your daughter outgrows her 3D-printed custom shoes? Drop the old pair in the material recycler and print out a brand new pair, one size larger.

Producing our own consumer goods, as in the example above, will make it much more convenient, affordable, and efficient to satisfy our household needs and wants. But the economic effect of localized commercial production on industry will be even more dramatic. Around the world, digital 3D printing factories of various sizes and capacities will soon become connected in a global production network. Referred to as direct digital manufacturing, this capacity to manufacture components and finished goods near their point of use will be much more efficient than today’s global sourcing. Does your company participate in the global supply chain? Don’t get too comfortable. Localized production will dramatically compress (or eliminate!) today’s supply chains. PWC recently reported that roughly 40% of air and shipping cargo is under threat. The implications of this disruption on supply chains and all who participate in them are enormous.
I could see a lot less shipping of materials which will help lower energy costs. Manufacturing will become more local again, as opposed to international which could hurt countries like China. We could also see displacement of assembly work, but even more growth in jobs that require more technical aptitude.
 
Motley Fool had this interesting video on driverless cars and how they'll profoundly impact the insurance agencies, lawyers, basically anyone who benefits from car accidents.

 
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three d printing is really amazing to me and i think it will be a game changer honest it is probably the next personal computer it will take a while and the technology will be expensive but it will come down and it will be a whole new ballgame in about a decade i predict bromigos and it will be the end of machinists frankly you are not going to need an end mill or a lathe any more and you will sure not need the german guy who can figure out where you need to run your cuts to make the piece you need with as little waste as possible basically this is going to change a lot from guys working on the floor to the companies that make the equipment they use take that to the bank

 
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three d printing is really amazing to me and i think it will be a game changer honest it is probably the next personal computer it will take a while and the technology will be expensive but it will come down and it will be a whole new ballgame in about a decade i predict bromigos and it will be the end of machinists frankly you are not going to need an end mill or a lathe any more and you will sure not need the german guy who can figure out where you need to run your cuts to make the piece you need with as little waste as possible basically this is going to change a lot from guys working on the floor to the companies that make the equipment they use take that to the bank
3D printing is a good one. I have concerns over how this will be regulated. Off of the top of my head, one concern would be the ability to build a gun from scratch with no serial number for obvious reasons, with the design file readily available on the internet. Another would be 3D printed organs or appendages, while the technology would be there, how does the FDA oversee this to save us from ourselves effectively?

 
three d printing is really amazing to me and i think it will be a game changer honest it is probably the next personal computer it will take a while and the technology will be expensive but it will come down and it will be a whole new ballgame in about a decade i predict bromigos and it will be the end of machinists frankly you are not going to need an end mill or a lathe any more and you will sure not need the german guy who can figure out where you need to run your cuts to make the piece you need with as little waste as possible basically this is going to change a lot from guys working on the floor to the companies that make the equipment they use take that to the bank
3D printing is a good one. I have concerns over how this will be regulated. Off of the top of my head, one concern would be the ability to build a gun from scratch with no serial number for obvious reasons, with the design file readily available on the internet. Another would be 3D printed organs or appendages, while the technology would be there, how does the FDA oversee this to save us from ourselves effectively?
I think Vice has an episode of a guy already printing 3d receivers that hold up very well.

 
three d printing is really amazing to me and i think it will be a game changer honest it is probably the next personal computer it will take a while and the technology will be expensive but it will come down and it will be a whole new ballgame in about a decade i predict bromigos and it will be the end of machinists frankly you are not going to need an end mill or a lathe any more and you will sure not need the german guy who can figure out where you need to run your cuts to make the piece you need with as little waste as possible basically this is going to change a lot from guys working on the floor to the companies that make the equipment they use take that to the bank
3D printing is a good one. I have concerns over how this will be regulated. Off of the top of my head, one concern would be the ability to build a gun from scratch with no serial number for obvious reasons, with the design file readily available on the internet. Another would be 3D printed organs or appendages, while the technology would be there, how does the FDA oversee this to save us from ourselves effectively?
I use my 2D printer to print out funny cat pictures. I hope they don't regulate that.

 
three d printing is really amazing to me and i think it will be a game changer honest it is probably the next personal computer it will take a while and the technology will be expensive but it will come down and it will be a whole new ballgame in about a decade i predict bromigos and it will be the end of machinists frankly you are not going to need an end mill or a lathe any more and you will sure not need the german guy who can figure out where you need to run your cuts to make the piece you need with as little waste as possible basically this is going to change a lot from guys working on the floor to the companies that make the equipment they use take that to the bank
3D printing is a good one. I have concerns over how this will be regulated. Off of the top of my head, one concern would be the ability to build a gun from scratch with no serial number for obvious reasons, with the design file readily available on the internet. Another would be 3D printed organs or appendages, while the technology would be there, how does the FDA oversee this to save us from ourselves effectively?
I use my 2D printer to print out funny cat pictures. I hope they don't regulate that.
Cold dead hands brony

 
three d printing is really amazing to me and i think it will be a game changer honest it is probably the next personal computer it will take a while and the technology will be expensive but it will come down and it will be a whole new ballgame in about a decade i predict bromigos and it will be the end of machinists frankly you are not going to need an end mill or a lathe any more and you will sure not need the german guy who can figure out where you need to run your cuts to make the piece you need with as little waste as possible basically this is going to change a lot from guys working on the floor to the companies that make the equipment they use take that to the bank
3D printing is a good one. I have concerns over how this will be regulated. Off of the top of my head, one concern would be the ability to build a gun from scratch with no serial number for obvious reasons, with the design file readily available on the internet. Another would be 3D printed organs or appendages, while the technology would be there, how does the FDA oversee this to save us from ourselves effectively?
I use my 2D printer to print out funny cat pictures. I hope they don't regulate that.
Hi ?

 
Fusion power. There are a few good candidates and one has already hit greater than 1:1 (note this is produced, not extracted, so not viable yet).

 
Automated transportation will have as large and effect as anything I can think of. Will get into it when not typing on a phone, but the limitations of sprawl and even exurban locations may be mitigated while allowing for huge gains in market efficiencies, potential improvements for quality of life as a result (not stuck in traffic for hours and hours a year) and re environment (I'm assuming we aren't using unleaded here).

 
One of the things many people don't realize is that Uber's sky high valuation is about driverless cars. They are trying to build a brand where the idea of clicking a button, entering a destination, and getting in whatever car shows up is ubiquitous. Introduce self driving cars and there are no driver costs, only maintenance and logistics costs. Thats the 40 billion dollar company.

 
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?

 
Does a significant improvement in technology and efficiency move this country(and the world) on a more accepted socialist path? If improved technology is even moreso taking humans out of the "work" loop....what will be the political/societal results of that?

 
Does a significant improvement in technology and efficiency move this country(and the world) on a more accepted socialist path? If improved technology is even moreso taking humans out of the "work" loop....what will be the political/societal results of that?
2.3 million adults in this country make their living as drivers. Trucks, deliveries, etc. "Driver" is the largest job by populous in the United States. So yes, it will have a huge workforce impact when it happens. As a note, 12.5% of men between 24-58 do not work, the highest number in the last 100 years.

I think the hope is that these new advances in transport will open other areas of commerce and creation that put these people in positions that are similarly productive but eliminate negative aspects (auto accidents). Or the hope is simply "#### those people, we are making a ton of money over here."

 
Does a significant improvement in technology and efficiency move this country(and the world) on a more accepted socialist path? If improved technology is even moreso taking humans out of the "work" loop....what will be the political/societal results of that?
2.3 million adults in this country make their living as drivers. Trucks, deliveries, etc. "Driver" is the largest job by populous in the United States. So yes, it will have a huge workforce impact when it happens. As a note, 12.5% of men between 24-58 do not work, the highest number in the last 100 years.

I think the hope is that these new advances in transport will open other areas of commerce and creation that put these people in positions that are similarly productive but eliminate negative aspects (auto accidents). Or the hope is simply "#### those people, we are making a ton of money over here."
Historically, we've seen the former scenario, rather than the latter; but for the past couple of decades, it's feels as though we are tending latter....I think most would prefer that productive opportunities open up for displaced workers, but I see an overall decrease in unskilled positions and a decrease in the real economic value of manual labor.

I am optimistic that we can move the workforce of the world forward, but it's going to take some skillful nudges, which we have not been historically great at...

 
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?
this.

how do you just "print a gun" or car or an organ or something.

Seems like you'd need a lot of specialized materials that aren't just going to be in the hands of joe average or even joe way above average

 
All I want to be able to print is all of the little plastic pieces that eventually break on everything that I buy forcing me to buy a completely new whatever. That would be swell.

 
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?
this.

how do you just "print a gun" or car or an organ or something.

Seems like you'd need a lot of specialized materials that aren't just going to be in the hands of joe average or even joe way above average
Many household goods are made of the same types of materials. Those that aren't are still mostly made by some form of chemistry. Just like printer toner (color, black and white) you will be able to buy what you need (presumably) in a convenient way at a nearby store. For more complex items there will be print on demand departments at places like Home Depot where you can get that sprinkler head or toilet seat a few minutes after ordering. These stores won't have to carry inventory costs nor manage/pay for logistics of moving items around the country. As a result, prices SHOULD go down on a lot of items that people need.

 
Everything that helps someone puts someone else out of business.

Frankly, I just kinda wish technology would slow the F down in quite a few cases (not all, but quite a few). A lot of "cool" stuff is going to come out, but it's incredibly unnecessary.

For another thread I suppose.

But yeah, the auto industry, delivery systems, computers, AI, and anything based on electronics is going to be all crazy sci fi before we know it.

 
Graphene batteries. Imagine batteries with the same form factor now, but with 10x or higher capacity/life?

I think you would immediately see an uptick in apps that use mobile devices' resources intensively, without fear of reviews killing the app for draining the battery too quickly. Then you would see the mobile device HW itself integrate more powerful subsystems (radios, CPUs, GPUs, cameras) without fear of reviews killing the device's battery life.

We're all going to be walking around with some freaking powerful phones. Every call you make might be video, never just voice.

I expect the Internet of Things to then get really interesting as more battery life would allow more powerful processors to be used rather than low power/performance microcontrollers. Instead of collecting data and transmitting to the cloud where more powerful processing is done, the device itself can do that, allowing quicker and smarter apps.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?
And I'm assuming most of these materials used are plastic (IE: OIL!) If we start using polymers/plastics in large quantities for constuction purposes, aren't we just going to accelerate the world's oil dependance and depletion? (Honest question...I don't know much about this.)

 
ghostguy123 said:
Everything that helps someone puts someone else out of business.

Frankly, I just kinda wish technology would slow the F down in quite a few cases (not all, but quite a few). A lot of "cool" stuff is going to come out, but it's incredibly unnecessary.
You know the story about the economist who sees government workers digging a ditch with shovels, right? He asks why they don't use a machine like a backhoe, and is told making them use shovels means more men have jobs. He replies "then why not make them use spoons?"
Great story. Perfect analogy, also. I suppose that backhoe is just as worthwhile as an that 97th flashlight APP, or maybe the 175th alarm APP that plays cool songs.

 
Abraham said:
Thunderlips said:
Does a significant improvement in technology and efficiency move this country(and the world) on a more accepted socialist path? If improved technology is even moreso taking humans out of the "work" loop....what will be the political/societal results of that?
2.3 million adults in this country make their living as drivers. Trucks, deliveries, etc. "Driver" is the largest job by populous in the United States. So yes, it will have a huge workforce impact when it happens. As a note, 12.5% of men between 24-58 do not work, the highest number in the last 100 years.

I think the hope is that these new advances in transport will open other areas of commerce and creation that put these people in positions that are similarly productive but eliminate negative aspects (auto accidents). Or the hope is simply "#### those people, we are making a ton of money over here."
So this touches on my greatest fear of the tech advances we are seeing and something the Ghost dude touched on. The populace can't keep up. There is a large number of older Americans who will never 'get' the smartphone. There are a large number of Americans who can't understand tech. There are a large number of Americans who will always be better suited for manual labor for lack of a better way of putting it. Out of the 2.3 mill mentioned above I would surmise there are a fair number who won't be grabbing white collar work if they are put out of a job.

My thoughts for at least the 5 years have always come back to the same solution. America's crumbling infrastructure. We need a massive work force & funding to maintain what we have let alone build new and technology will only go so far in this arena. It's a harsh statement but one I always remember when I brought home bad grades to my dad. "The world needs ditch diggers too son." Why we continue to avoid it, dance around it and do nothing about it is beyond me. It is the proverbial shovel ready project across the country.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?
And I'm assuming most of these materials used are plastic (IE: OIL!) If we start using polymers/plastics in large quantities for constuction purposes, aren't we just going to accelerate the world's oil dependance and depletion? (Honest question...I don't know much about this.)
If the raw materials can be transported more cheaply and things can be constructed more quickly, then I would expect a net reduction
 
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Long Ball Larry said:
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?
And I'm assuming most of these materials used are plastic (IE: OIL!) If we start using polymers/plastics in large quantities for constuction purposes, aren't we just going to accelerate the world's oil dependance and depletion? (Honest question...I don't know much about this.)
If the raw materials can be transported more cheaply and things can be constructed more quickly, then I would expect a net reduction
My assumption is that polymers would be replacing many of the other materials now being used. (IE: Plastic polymers used where concrete or brick might have been before.) I'm fairly certain that those polymers are already as strong and in some ways better than many traditional materials, but without on the spot local 3D printing aren't a very efficient method right now. That's the part that could/likely will change, making local and on the spot production viable and supposedly more efficient overall. But if we are suddenly using polymers where we would have used brick, concrete, steel or aluminum, etc., I would think this would NOT offset the reduction in oil used for transportation. (Which in itself is probably being overstated since the raw materials and the printers/printing equipment would still require shipping)

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?
And I'm assuming most of these materials used are plastic (IE: OIL!) If we start using polymers/plastics in large quantities for constuction purposes, aren't we just going to accelerate the world's oil dependance and depletion? (Honest question...I don't know much about this.)
Using oil is not a bad thing - wasting it by burning it in our cars that pollute the environment is the problem.

Of the 20 million barrels of oil consumed each day, 40 percent is used by passenger vehicles, 24 percent by industry, 12 percent by commercial and freight trucks, 7 percent by aircraft, and 6 percent in residential and commercial buildings.
 
Walking Boot said:
Abraham said:
One of the things many people don't realize is that Uber's sky high valuation is about driverless cars. They are trying to build a brand where the idea of clicking a button, entering a destination, and getting in whatever car shows up is ubiquitous. Introduce self driving cars and there are no driver costs, only maintenance and logistics costs. Thats the 40 billion dollar company.
The only problem is they don't own a fleet of cars, have Google's self driving tech, or the infrastructure or logistics (they rely on their drivers to figure it all out).

All they have is the brand.
I drove for Uber last year, before the huge rate drop in January. It will be interesting to see how those driverless cars are programmed to react when they arrive right to the position the Uber software sends to the car, and the "Where the #### are you?" phone call comes in because the customer's phone's was in power saving mode resulting in the phone's GPS sending a position to Uber that is many blocks away from where they really are.

 
Walking Boot said:
Abraham said:
One of the things many people don't realize is that Uber's sky high valuation is about driverless cars. They are trying to build a brand where the idea of clicking a button, entering a destination, and getting in whatever car shows up is ubiquitous. Introduce self driving cars and there are no driver costs, only maintenance and logistics costs. Thats the 40 billion dollar company.
The only problem is they don't own a fleet of cars, have Google's self driving tech, or the infrastructure or logistics (they rely on their drivers to figure it all out).

All they have is the brand.
I drove for Uber last year, before the huge rate drop in January. It will be interesting to see how those driverless cars are programmed to react when they arrive right to the position the Uber software sends to the car, and the "Where the #### are you?" phone call comes in because the customer's phone's was in power saving mode resulting in the phone's GPS sending a position to Uber that is many blocks away from where they really are.
'I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.'

 
3d printing is not the wonder tech it has been hyped to be. It has its applications and has been a game changer for me personally, but I'm in a specialized industry. The average Joe will have limited use.

I've ranted on this in the past; I'll expand on it further tomorrow if I get some time. For now, I'll say this: I've had free, unlimited access to a 3d printer for the last decade and have never made a part for personal use.

 
3d printing is not the wonder tech it has been hyped to be. It has its applications and has been a game changer for me personally, but I'm in a specialized industry. The average Joe will have limited use.

I've ranted on this in the past; I'll expand on it further tomorrow if I get some time. For now, I'll say this: I've had free, unlimited access to a 3d printer for the last decade and have never made a part for personal use.
3D printing is in its infancy like the internet in 1995. If you asked most people back then they would have asked you what they need the internet for because there are so few websites. 3D printing needs designs to make it worthwhile but eventually there will be millions of designs you can print off.

 
3d printing is not the wonder tech it has been hyped to be. It has its applications and has been a game changer for me personally, but I'm in a specialized industry. The average Joe will have limited use.

I've ranted on this in the past; I'll expand on it further tomorrow if I get some time. For now, I'll say this: I've had free, unlimited access to a 3d printer for the last decade and have never made a part for personal use.
3D printing is in its infancy like the internet in 1995. If you asked most people back then they would have asked you what they need the internet for because there are so few websites. 3D printing needs designs to make it worthwhile but eventually there will be millions of designs you can print off.
I've cornered the market on ten cent bracelets.

 
Walking Boot said:
Abraham said:
One of the things many people don't realize is that Uber's sky high valuation is about driverless cars. They are trying to build a brand where the idea of clicking a button, entering a destination, and getting in whatever car shows up is ubiquitous. Introduce self driving cars and there are no driver costs, only maintenance and logistics costs. Thats the 40 billion dollar company.
The only problem is they don't own a fleet of cars, have Google's self driving tech, or the infrastructure or logistics (they rely on their drivers to figure it all out).

All they have is the brand.
The bidding for Nokia maps business has been insane for this reason.

Also. Don't underestimate the brand. Most tech companies own very little "stuff" . AirBNB, Dropbox. Facebook, spotify, Netflix, Twitter, Amazon. These companies own very little of what they make money from

 
3d printing is not the wonder tech it has been hyped to be. It has its applications and has been a game changer for me personally, but I'm in a specialized industry. The average Joe will have limited use.

I've ranted on this in the past; I'll expand on it further tomorrow if I get some time. For now, I'll say this: I've had free, unlimited access to a 3d printer for the last decade and have never made a part for personal use.
3D printing is in its infancy like the internet in 1995. If you asked most people back then they would have asked you what they need the internet for because there are so few websites. 3D printing needs designs to make it worthwhile but eventually there will be millions of designs you can print off.
I don't know. There's not that much stuff the average person will need to print. I don't see it bringing costs down for manufacturers over using a mold.

All I can see it really doing is putting Lego out of business. Outside of that, I don't find myself going to the store for some plastic doohickey that often.

I get there will be millions of things one can print, but, of those, what are some that I may want to print? And I'm a guy who's at Home Depot and AutoZone and whatever all the time, too... but rarely am I there for some all-plastic part that can be 3D printed.
Just wait until the 3D printers that come out that use just about any kind of material.

It's coming.

 
3d printing is not the wonder tech it has been hyped to be. It has its applications and has been a game changer for me personally, but I'm in a specialized industry. The average Joe will have limited use.

I've ranted on this in the past; I'll expand on it further tomorrow if I get some time. For now, I'll say this: I've had free, unlimited access to a 3d printer for the last decade and have never made a part for personal use.
3D printing is in its infancy like the internet in 1995. If you asked most people back then they would have asked you what they need the internet for because there are so few websites. 3D printing needs designs to make it worthwhile but eventually there will be millions of designs you can print off.
I don't know. There's not that much stuff the average person will need to print. I don't see it bringing costs down for manufacturers over using a mold.

All I can see it really doing is putting Lego out of business. Outside of that, I don't find myself going to the store for some plastic doohickey that often.

I get there will be millions of things one can print, but, of those, what are some that I may want to print? And I'm a guy who's at Home Depot and AutoZone and whatever all the time, too... but rarely am I there for some all-plastic part that can be 3D printed.
http://www.shapeways.com/product/2PF6UJXV9/doge?li=marketplace&optionId=41388402

 
Oh sure, let's just reinvent chemistry while we're at it. Are you suggesting some world where we 3D print metal at home? 3D print glass? That's going to be safe to do at home at room temperature? Next up is cold fusion I guess.
And I guess we'll never walk on the moon, go to Mars, or be able to send a message instantly from one side of the Earth to the other.

I am just saying 3D printers will progress to the point where they will be much more mainstream than they are now, with much more practical uses. I think manufactures will begin making products with replacement parts that are 3D printable also.

It's ok if you're not ready for it, but it's coming

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?
Good questions and the answers lead more to relatively 'centralized' printing than 'maker'-type printing.

Distribution will be a dead, dead industry, except for bulk shipments of materials and short distance - which could be drones but likely not

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?
And I'm assuming most of these materials used are plastic (IE: OIL!) If we start using polymers/plastics in large quantities for constuction purposes, aren't we just going to accelerate the world's oil dependance and depletion? (Honest question...I don't know much about this.)
If we stop burning it there will be plenty. That aside they are already 3D printing with aluminium

 

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