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Official Donald Trump for President thread (2 Viewers)

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Leeroy Jenkins said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I still think Trump is far more likely to cause harm as a third party candidate ("pledge" or not) than to be the Republican nominee. Let's concede that the guy literally can't do anything to dissuade the roughly 25% of Republican or Republican leaning voters who support him to switch votes. So he has a relatively high floor. He still has a very limited ceiling.

Trump can't win the nomination with 25% of the vote. He has to pick up voters at the same rate as others as candidates drop out. That seems unlikely to me once the "establishment candidate" is picked (be it Rubio or Cruz or even a resurgent Jeb!). His negative numbers with Republican leaning voters are kind of middle of the pack. His negative numbers among all voters are massive (it would be a godsend to Hilary to face an opponent where she clearly wins the "likability" race).
Click to expand...
I thought that the rules in the primary changed so that delegates were awarded all or nothing? So if he wins a state with 25% of the vote because there's so many people in the race he still gets all of the delegates and therefore could get the nomination that way. No?
Click to expand...
False.

Everything (with the exception of South Carolina) is proportional prior to March 15.

-QG

 
Looks like the establishment is getting to work taking him down. Karl Rove on CBS This Morning really ripping at him then another story on WSJ/Murdoch Fudd with Frank Lutz playing the part telling everyone how horrible he is. Start expecting some dirty tricks from Rove - has to be a black baby in Trumps past somewhere. And if not Karl will just make some crap up. Looks like Bushes are ready to get down and dirty again.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I still think Trump is far more likely to cause harm as a third party candidate ("pledge" or not) than to be the Republican nominee. Let's concede that the guy literally can't do anything to dissuade the roughly 25% of Republican or Republican leaning voters who support him to switch votes. So he has a relatively high floor. He still has a very limited ceiling.

Trump can't win the nomination with 25% of the vote. He has to pick up voters at the same rate as others as candidates drop out. That seems unlikely to me once the "establishment candidate" is picked (be it Rubio or Cruz or even a resurgent Jeb!). His negative numbers with Republican leaning voters are kind of middle of the pack. His negative numbers among all voters are massive (it would be a godsend to Hilary to face an opponent where she clearly wins the "likability" race).
Click to expand...
I thought that the rules in the primary changed so that delegates were awarded all or nothing? So if he wins a state with 25% of the vote because there's so many people in the race he still gets all of the delegates and therefore could get the nomination that way. No?
Click to expand...
False.

Everything (with the exception of South Carolina) is proportional prior to March 15.

-QG
Click to expand...
The distinction doesn't really matter. 25% only wins a primary when there are 8 + people running. But there's no way many of them stick around that long. It's expensive to run a campaign. Eventually Fiorina, Huckabee, et al drop out. Heck, Carson probably drops out if he's anything but a solid second.

 
Walking Boot said:
Shula-holic said:
timschochet said:
Courtjester said:
Whether you like him or not, the current events that surround this country are creating the perfect storm for him to be elected.
Click to expand...
I don't like him and I very much fear you may be right.
Click to expand...
I think it's now more possible than ever he could be the nominee, especially if there are more ISIS attacks. Barring Hillary totally imploding I don't see a way he can win nationally given the demographics of the electorate within the electoral college.
Click to expand...
Electoral College? The total Electoral Votes of all the states who's governors have refused refugees is like 340. That's 70 more than needed to win.
Click to expand...
So you expect Trump to be able to win the states of Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware, etc? Can you tell me the last time a Republican won any of these states in a Presidential election? That doesn't even begin to address the issues the Republicans have in demographics as time progresses in Nevada, Florida, and New Mexico.

 
Some Nate Silver musings about how people view Trump.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

In general, the more damaging you think a Trump nomination would be for the GOP, the lower the probability you should assign to it.
Click to expand...
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

The heuristic here is that severity and frequency are usually inversely correlated. Truly high-impact events don't happen very often.
Click to expand...
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

As for me, I remain quite skeptical of Trump's chances. I also think his nomination would be an unmitigated catastrophe for Republicans.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
So making fun of appearances is OK, except when it isn't.

Mocking his hair isn't in the same ballpark as Trump's convulsions, but wanting Trump to apologize for his mistimed Harlem Shake, while aping his appearance seems hypocritical to me.

 
Gawain said:
So making fun of appearances is OK, except when it isn't.

Mocking his hair isn't in the same ballpark as Trump's convulsions, but wanting Trump to apologize for his mistimed Harlem Shake, while aping his appearance seems hypocritical to me.
Click to expand...
It's not just a question of being in the "same ballpark"- you really don't see a significant difference between the two?

 
Gawain said:
So making fun of appearances is OK, except when it isn't.

Mocking his hair isn't in the same ballpark as Trump's convulsions, but wanting Trump to apologize for his mistimed Harlem Shake, while aping his appearance seems hypocritical to me.
Click to expand...
It's often seen as being unacceptable to make fun of the mentally or physically challenged, whereas those without limitations are often considered fair game, rightly or wrongly. In short, you're right. It's not okay to make fun of Trump.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
timschochet said:
Gawain said:
So making fun of appearances is OK, except when it isn't.

Mocking his hair isn't in the same ballpark as Trump's convulsions, but wanting Trump to apologize for his mistimed Harlem Shake, while aping his appearance seems hypocritical to me.
Click to expand...
It's not just a question of being in the "same ballpark"- you really don't see a significant difference between the two?
Click to expand...
Of course there's a serious difference. But the difference doesn't make one action abhorrent and one action acceptable. Just because there are two shades of gray here, the lighter one isn't automatically white.

To use a forum example, the forum trolls who try to bully you are horrible, but that doesn't make your bullying of Eminence acceptable.

 
Gawain said:
timschochet said:
Gawain said:
So making fun of appearances is OK, except when it isn't.

Mocking his hair isn't in the same ballpark as Trump's convulsions, but wanting Trump to apologize for his mistimed Harlem Shake, while aping his appearance seems hypocritical to me.
Click to expand...
It's not just a question of being in the "same ballpark"- you really don't see a significant difference between the two?
Click to expand...
Of course there's a serious difference. But the difference doesn't make one action abhorrent and one action acceptable. Just because there are two shades of gray here, the lighter one isn't automatically white.

To use a forum example, the forum trolls who try to bully you are horrible, but that doesn't make your bullying of Eminence acceptable.
Click to expand...
I don't think I am "bullied" around here, and I don't think I bully Eminence. I make fun of Eminence when I think he deserves it (which is often.) Some people make fun of me. It's not bullying. I'm not a 12 year old girl and it's an internet forum, nobody's pushing me (or anyone) around.

 
Another claim by Trump which seems hard to believe, but is possible:

Joan Walsh ‏@joanwalsh ·

So @realDonaldTrump told this minister he didn't know the Black Lives Matter activist roughed up at his rally was black?
Click to expand...
 
Donald Trump to appear on the O'Reilly Factor for probably the 10th time since he declared, and O'Reilly will not be asking any questions about 9/11. In addition, tonight, he'll have a segment examining the claims made my Trump about 9/11 and Muslim's celebrating. My guess (and I hope I'm wrong) is that O'Reilly will provide enough wiggle room to give legitimacy to Trump's claim so he won't have to say he's lying. O'Reilly says interviewing Trump is very difficult because he falls back into the same 2 to 3 lines, no matter the question. While that may be accurate, what has become acceptable for guys (like Hannity and O'Reilly on FOX) to claim they want a President who fixes issues, provides solutions, etc., and then be open to Donald Trump as being that person. If they would just admit he's on strictly for ratings, I can live with that, but it's laughable to think this guy is a problem solver.

 
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

A big part of the disconnect on Trump is that leading in early polls is not remotely the same as winning primaries and caucuses.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

It's not just that early polls aren't very predictive. It's also that they often don't reflect committed support from actual voters.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

Idea that "Trump would win an election today" also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.
Click to expand...
 
ffldrew said:
Looks like the establishment is getting to work taking him down. Karl Rove on CBS This Morning really ripping at him then another story on WSJ/Murdoch Fudd with Frank Lutz playing the part telling everyone how horrible he is. Start expecting some dirty tricks from Rove - has to be a black baby in Trumps past somewhere. And if not Karl will just make some crap up. Looks like Bushes are ready to get down and dirty again.
Click to expand...
What's wrong with black babies? I like them.

 
timschochet said:
Gawain said:
timschochet said:
Gawain said:
So making fun of appearances is OK, except when it isn't.

Mocking his hair isn't in the same ballpark as Trump's convulsions, but wanting Trump to apologize for his mistimed Harlem Shake, while aping his appearance seems hypocritical to me.
Click to expand...
It's not just a question of being in the "same ballpark"- you really don't see a significant difference between the two?
Click to expand...
Of course there's a serious difference. But the difference doesn't make one action abhorrent and one action acceptable. Just because there are two shades of gray here, the lighter one isn't automatically white.To use a forum example, the forum trolls who try to bully you are horrible, but that doesn't make your bullying of Eminence acceptable.
Click to expand...
I don't think I am "bullied" around here, and I don't think I bully Eminence. I make fun of Eminence when I think he deserves it (which is often.) Some people make fun of me. It's not bullying. I'm not a 12 year old girl and it's an internet forum, nobody's pushing me (or anyone) around.
Click to expand...
Good 4 you tim.

Gawains post is the suck. If Internet micro aggressions bother you. Go suck your thumb.

 
ffldrew said:
Looks like the establishment is getting to work taking him down. Karl Rove on CBS This Morning really ripping at him then another story on WSJ/Murdoch Fudd with Frank Lutz playing the part telling everyone how horrible he is. Start expecting some dirty tricks from Rove - has to be a black baby in Trumps past somewhere. And if not Karl will just make some crap up. Looks like Bushes are ready to get down and dirty again.
Click to expand...
I don't think skeletons in the closet hurt Trump the way it would a typical politician. In fact, he'd probably embrace any crap that someone digs up from his past, and use that to get even more attention. I'd like to think that the way to attack him on policy as many of his "positions" are not real policy and ridiculous on the surface, but, to date, people seem to like the "say it how it is (or should be)" approach. I'm still thinking that come January, the adults will emerge, and the Carson/Trumps of the race will fall off. That appears to be the case, in the last 10-14 days, for Carson, who has been nearly as bad as Trump on policy, but even that may be more of how soft-spoken he is. Trump is running on on a strong personality, which is similar to how Obama won (in part) to his persona/charisma. Of course, Obama knows policy, but personality clearly matters in these races.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I still think Trump is far more likely to cause harm as a third party candidate ("pledge" or not) than to be the Republican nominee. Let's concede that the guy literally can't do anything to dissuade the roughly 25% of Republican or Republican leaning voters who support him to switch votes. So he has a relatively high floor. He still has a very limited ceiling.

Trump can't win the nomination with 25% of the vote. He has to pick up voters at the same rate as others as candidates drop out. That seems unlikely to me once the "establishment candidate" is picked (be it Rubio or Cruz or even a resurgent Jeb!). His negative numbers with Republican leaning voters are kind of middle of the pack. His negative numbers among all voters are massive (it would be a godsend to Hilary to face an opponent where she clearly wins the "likability" race).
Click to expand...
about that pledge....check his tweet from about an hour ago - he's making noises that he thinks he is being treated 'unfairly'

:popcorn:

-QG
Click to expand...
That pledge is ridiculously stupid to begin with.

 
cubd8 said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I still think Trump is far more likely to cause harm as a third party candidate ("pledge" or not) than to be the Republican nominee. Let's concede that the guy literally can't do anything to dissuade the roughly 25% of Republican or Republican leaning voters who support him to switch votes. So he has a relatively high floor. He still has a very limited ceiling.

Trump can't win the nomination with 25% of the vote. He has to pick up voters at the same rate as others as candidates drop out. That seems unlikely to me once the "establishment candidate" is picked (be it Rubio or Cruz or even a resurgent Jeb!). His negative numbers with Republican leaning voters are kind of middle of the pack. His negative numbers among all voters are massive (it would be a godsend to Hilary to face an opponent where she clearly wins the "likability" race).
Click to expand...
about that pledge....check his tweet from about an hour ago - he's making noises that he thinks he is being treated 'unfairly'

:popcorn:

-QG
Click to expand...
That pledge is ridiculously stupid to begin with.
Click to expand...
What does it say about your negotiating skills if you agreed to sign a "stupid" pledge and then try to get out of it 3 months later?

 
[scooter] said:
cubd8 said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I still think Trump is far more likely to cause harm as a third party candidate ("pledge" or not) than to be the Republican nominee. Let's concede that the guy literally can't do anything to dissuade the roughly 25% of Republican or Republican leaning voters who support him to switch votes. So he has a relatively high floor. He still has a very limited ceiling.

Trump can't win the nomination with 25% of the vote. He has to pick up voters at the same rate as others as candidates drop out. That seems unlikely to me once the "establishment candidate" is picked (be it Rubio or Cruz or even a resurgent Jeb!). His negative numbers with Republican leaning voters are kind of middle of the pack. His negative numbers among all voters are massive (it would be a godsend to Hilary to face an opponent where she clearly wins the "likability" race).
Click to expand...
about that pledge....check his tweet from about an hour ago - he's making noises that he thinks he is being treated 'unfairly' :popcorn:

-QG
Click to expand...
That pledge is ridiculously stupid to begin with.
Click to expand...
What does it say about your negotiating skills if you agreed to sign a "stupid" pledge and then try to get out of it 3 months later?
Click to expand...
Given that it is a nonbinding and frankly childish contract (surprised there aren't clauses about cooties or givebacks), it says he played them.

 
I'm not going to lie, I like our chances here. You're going to see a fundamentally changed America with Trump as President.

 
[scooter] said:
cubd8 said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I still think Trump is far more likely to cause harm as a third party candidate ("pledge" or not) than to be the Republican nominee. Let's concede that the guy literally can't do anything to dissuade the roughly 25% of Republican or Republican leaning voters who support him to switch votes. So he has a relatively high floor. He still has a very limited ceiling.

Trump can't win the nomination with 25% of the vote. He has to pick up voters at the same rate as others as candidates drop out. That seems unlikely to me once the "establishment candidate" is picked (be it Rubio or Cruz or even a resurgent Jeb!). His negative numbers with Republican leaning voters are kind of middle of the pack. His negative numbers among all voters are massive (it would be a godsend to Hilary to face an opponent where she clearly wins the "likability" race).
Click to expand...
about that pledge....check his tweet from about an hour ago - he's making noises that he thinks he is being treated 'unfairly'

:popcorn:

-QG
Click to expand...
That pledge is ridiculously stupid to begin with.
Click to expand...
What does it say about your negotiating skills if you agreed to sign a "stupid" pledge and then try to get out of it 3 months later?
Click to expand...
Nothing, really either way. That pledge is a sign of good will, but there's nothing legally binding.

 
Who was the nut job poster that was going to cut ties with any family or friends that supported Trump? Love to get an update on that.

 
RBM said:
Who was the nut job poster that was going to cut ties with any family or friends that supported Trump? Love to get an update on that.
Click to expand...
I was going to do this as well, but then I realized I don't know anyone who's that stupid.

 
cstu said:
www.friendswholiketrump.com

Find out which of your friends on Facebook like Trump.
Click to expand...
Not surprisingly it was only my nephew, who was outraged over the confederate flags being taken down in statehouses and reposts all the NRA propaganda.

 
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