What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Justin Forsett - 2015 (1 Viewer)

Itchy Amos

Footballguy
I'm trying to get a handle on some of the running backs that will be available in the later parts of the second round and there doesn't seem to be any recent discussion about Justin Forsett. He came out of nowhere to post 1,500 total yards and 8 TDs last year.

The big negatives seem to be:

  • Kubiak is now out of the picture
  • Forsett broke out really late in his career and there are very few (if any) historically comparable running backs that were able to sustain a significant level of success after such a long period of mediocrity
  • He's on the wrong side of 30.
  • Potential competition from Taliafero & the rookie Allen
  • the Ravens might not have the WRs to keep the opposing defenses honest
The positives seem to be:

  • The Ravens still have a top tier offensive line
  • Mark Trestman has a well documented history of featuring his lead running back extensively in the passing game. If he stays healthy, he appears to be a good bet to improve upon his 44 receptions from last year.
  • The Ravens signed Forsett to an extension in the off-season
  • Forsett shouldnt have much wear and tear on his body due to his limited workload to date.
It would seem like has has a chance to outproduce last years production with the likely increase in receptions and the lack of an obvious threat to playing time. I'd love to hear what people think about his prospects for this year.

 
Absolutely every item in your "negatives" list is either a positive (Kubiak gone, Trestman in), irrelevant (historical RB data in completely different circumstances), or wrong (he's 29, there's no competition, and the Ravens' WR corp doesn't need to "keep defenses honest" in the dink, dunk, flare Trestman O for the RB to be insanely productive).

The OL plus the fact that Trestman turns every back he coaches into a YFS machine AND lets him do all his own TD dirty work is all you need to know. Forsett's a slam dunk top five back barring injuries, no matter which bigger ticket RB's stay healthy, and he is going a lot cheaper than that.

Every. Trestman. RB. Dominates. FF.

Even the ones who suck, and Forsett doesn't.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Very few bell cows left in the league.

Not a fan of taking him 15-20, but when we had WR run this morning I was happy to take him 28th (2.04).

 
Too small to be an every down back :sarcasm: ....depending on coaching staff.
He should get more many more receiving yards, but less rushing yards than in 2014. He only averaged 6 yrs/reception on 44 catches in 2014. Meanwhile. Forte had 100 & 74 receptions the past 2 years and averaged about 8 yrs/catch.

He won't be the goal line back. He was only 3/8 when the team needed 1 yard to get a TD or first down. Meanwhile, Taliaferro was 6/10 and Flacco was 13/17. So it's unlikely that he'll get 8 rushing TDs again (only one of them was was a goal line carry), but he'll make up for it with a few receiving TDs. He's a slam-dunk top -10 (not top-5).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Picked him at 2.5 tonight. Really wasn't pleased but reading the OP and free loves response, I'm actually not to bummed.

 
I traded for him in a keeper league. He cost me a 3rd in the trade and a 9th as a keeper, but I got back a 6th. There was no way I was going to be able to draft him with my 3rd (3.11), so I'm not really giving up much for him and I can pair him with Eddie Lacy and have a nice RB duo to start.

Even if he ONLY has 50-60 receptions this season, he could be a low end RB1 or high end RB2. There's no much else in that offense besides he and Steve Smith.

 
I think Forsett is the most underrated RB in Fantasy football this year. He was a top ten back last year his first year as the starter and should be just as good this season.

 
Forsett is a solid RB1 paired with a stud WR and an awesome #2 if you pair him with one of the stud RBs.

 
Am I am the only one that feels like Forsett can finish as the number 1 RB in PPR leagues this year?

- Under Trestman, Forte averaged 277.5 rushing attempts per year over the last 2 years. These rushing attempts led to an average of 1188.5 yards per year.

- Under Trestman, Forte averaged 112 targets per year over the last 2 years. These targets produced an average of 88 receptions per year.

- Under Trestman, Forte averaged 7.5 rushing tds over the last two years, and 3.5 receiving tds leading to an average of 11 td's per season.

- Forsett had significantly less carries than Forte (235 vs 277.5), but still managed 1266 rushing yards.

- Forsett had 59 targets in the passing game in 2014 (47% less than Forte's 2 year average) and still managed 44 receptions.

* If Forsett's carries increase by 20%, and he maintains his 5.4 yards per carry average, 1500 rushing yards is not out of the question.

* If Forsett's targets increase by 47% (59 targets vs 112) 70-80 receptions is not out of the question.

* With more carries, and more targets in the passing game, Forsett's TD's should increase from the 8 tds he scored in 2014. 10 tds is certainly attainable.

* 1500 rushing yards

* 75 receptions

* 10 TD's

* Le'Veon Bell's 2014 stats were:

- 1361 rushing yards

- 83 receptions

- 11 TD's

 
No GL kills him for me
So he's absolutely not going to get any goal line carries? I don't believe that.
Charlie Garner weighed 185 soaking wet. He was on a Trestman-run team with Tyrone Wheatley AND Zack Crockett (combined weight, approx. 1/4 ton). He got as many TD's rushing from inside the ten as both of them combined. (And several times more TD's total.)

Derek Loville was a 200-lb scatback with 16 career TD's on a team with William Floyd and a QB who stole goalline looks in Steve Young. Loville ran for 10 TD's from inside the ten yard line when Trestman had him in 1995.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think Forsett is the most underrated RB in Fantasy football this year. He was a top ten back last year his first year as the starter and should be just as good this season.
I don't know about most underrated, but he's in a group of underrated RBs I love. That group includes; Forsett, Miller, Ingram & L. Murray. All of these guys have strong RB1 potential and can be had as RB2s or later than you should be able to get them and pair with some stud WRs. Having picked at the top of a few drafts this past weekend, the availability of these guys has helped me feel comfortable taking Juilo at picks 3 & 4.

 
I think Forsett is the most underrated RB in Fantasy football this year. He was a top ten back last year his first year as the starter and should be just as good this season.
He certainly seems to be underrated by most of the prognosticators out there. It seems that the FF community expects his total carries to drop off by 10% (or more) & for his ypc to drop significantly. Both of those things could certainly happen. Its hard to sustain a ypc over 5.0 & perhaps Allen & Taliafero take an equal bite out of the pie this year but his performance last year doesn't seem to warrant a role reduction.

I don't believe that Forsett started out last year as the lead back. It looks like it took him until week 7 to finally earn those honors. From that point on (including the 2 playoff games) he averaged more than 17 carries per game and received 71% of all the running back carries. During that time he averaged 4.9 ypc. That's pretty solid.

It seems like the projections for this guy are on the low end of the spectrum. Why is the FF community at large expecting such a sizable reduction in his role? Has the coaching staff hinted at this?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This tends to be a minor tie breaker but if interested in handcuffing the other options in Balt are very cheap. Compare to other RBs drafted in the Forsett range.

Same could be said for Lamar Miller (Damien Williams/Ajayi) I suppose.

 
In my contracts league, someone signed him to a 3 year deal last night. I think there is legitimate concern about him this year, let alone a year or so in the future.

 
I think anytime a guy who was a journeyman/career backup breaks through and has a really good year, people tend to be a bit more dismissive. If Forsett had been a rookie last year, with that statline and the way he looked at year's end, I bet he'd be ranked in the top six this year. Peterson, Bell, Charles, Lynch, Lacy, Forsett.

 
I feel like all the positive attributes that had been discussed about him since he was a rookie never showed up. Until last year. He really sustained the success and continued to improve as the year went on. I listened to some podcast (ESPN Football Today, maybe) where the guys basically said that despite the coordinator change they don't expect a major change in the types of successful plays utilized. Add to that the fact that the new OC really used Forte a lot in the past, including as a pass receiver, and I think there is still upside to be realized.

Disclaimer- I kept him this year with an 11th rounder.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Well this was a great thread, had preseason/offseason info in it.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/538860-is-forsett-an-ascendant-talent/page-4

Like:

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva 2h2 hours ago

80+ catches. RT @RavensInsider Joe Flacco on Justin Forsett 'he's going to be a huge checkdown guy for us'
(cstu)

And:

Justin Forsett - RB - Ravens

The Baltimore Sun agrees that Justin Forsett's catch total "could potentially double" under new OC Marc Trestman.

ESPN Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley wrote almost the exact same thing in June. As the Sun notes, Trestman's running backs have averaged 72 catches for roughly 600 yards per season. Forsett finished his breakout 2014 with 44 grabs.

Source: Baltimore Sun
Jul 28 - 7:59 PM
 
I stayed far away from this guy in my two drafts. Number one, every year we hear about the rb that is going to blow up in so and so's system. Funny that it does not always turn out. Number two, I'm always leery of guys who come out of nowhere to produce. The stars aligned that year and probably will not again.

Maybe you guys are right, but I am not buying. I sort of have the feeling that this is going to be a major rebuild year for the Ravens. I don't think Forsett is going to hold up.

 
An MCL sprain will sideline this bruising depth-back for at least a few weeks to start the season.
from espn?

:confused:
who are you talking about?
Justin Forsett

Baltimore Ravens
ELIG: RB
STATUS: bs
PRK: 8 AVG: 14.6
%OWN: 99.4 (+0.1)
Healthy
ffl_antas_35x35.jpg


ESPN Projection
WEEK 1
15.4 Yds: 0/61.8/30.6, TDs: 0.4

An MCL sprain will sideline this bruising depth-back for at least a few weeks to start the season.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
An MCL sprain will sideline this bruising depth-back for at least a few weeks to start the season.
from espn?

:confused:
who are you talking about?
Justin Forsett

Baltimore Ravens
ELIG: RB
STATUS: bs
PRK: 8 AVG: 14.6
%OWN: 99.4 (+0.1)
Healthy
ffl_antas_35x35.jpg


ESPN Projection
WEEK 1
15.4 Yds: 0/61.8/30.6, TDs: 0.4

An MCL sprain will sideline this bruising depth-back for at least a few weeks to start the season.
Someone at ESPN screwed up, that's Taliaferro's Outlook in Forsett's card.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
An MCL sprain will sideline this bruising depth-back for at least a few weeks to start the season.
from espn?

:confused:
who are you talking about?
Justin Forsett

Baltimore Ravens

ELIG: RB

STATUS: bs

PRK: 8 AVG: 14.6

%OWN: 99.4 (+0.1)

Healthy

ffl_antas_35x35.jpg


ESPN Projection

WEEK 1

15.4 Yds: 0/61.8/30.6, TDs: 0.4

An MCL sprain will sideline this bruising depth-back for at least a few weeks to start the season.
Thats gotta be a typo no?
 
An MCL sprain will sideline this bruising depth-back for at least a few weeks to start the season.
from espn?

:confused:
who are you talking about?
Justin Forsett

Baltimore Ravens

ELIG: RB

STATUS: bs

PRK: 8 AVG: 14.6

%OWN: 99.4 (+0.1)

Healthy

ffl_antas_35x35.jpg


ESPN Projection

WEEK 1

15.4 Yds: 0/61.8/30.6, TDs: 0.4

An MCL sprain will sideline this bruising depth-back for at least a few weeks to start the season.
Thats gotta be a typo no?
This blurp is for Taliaferro. its verbatim if you click on his name. He currently has a sprained MCL, and fits the description of a "bruising depth-back"

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If he stays healthy, he's in for a big year. There's no legit backup on the team until Lorenzo comes back, and even then Justin should get the vast amount of the carries and catches. Catches should be plentiful since the Ravens WRs and TEs blow.

 
Any word on his injured shoulder. I see he only got in a limited practice on Wed.
Justin Forsett (shoulder) was upgraded to "full" in Thursday's practice.
Forsett is ready to go for Sunday's appealing matchup with the Raiders. He'll be on the RB1 borderline. Sep 17 - 7:54 PM
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top