ZWK's 2016 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

32 Counter Pass said:

I am a little disappointed to Tyler Ervin missing from the list. Seems a little odd considering the year had in 2015.

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1600 rushing yards looks good, but it took him 294 carries to do it. His rushing efficiency numbers are below average across the board. Yards per carry of 5.45, when average this year was 5.67 (and the avg was higher in 2014 on this and pretty much every stat). 20+ yard carries on only 4.5% of his non-RZ attempts (avg is 5.8%). Ran for a first down on only 9.6% of his first down carries (avg is 15.0%). Converted 64% of his short yardage attempts (avg is 70%). His 2014 efficiency stats were similar.

His 334 receiving yards is a plus, but his 6.0 YPT is averageish this year (and would've been well below average last year), and his longest reception went for only 24 yards.

And he's only 192 pounds. Since 1999, the most successful NFL backs who weighed 195 or less at the combine are Darren Sproles, Daryl Richardson, and Dion Lewis.

Ya, I think I heard Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller compare him to Darren Sproles during the pro bowl. At least that is something to hang his hat on.

I think my system isn't that great at picking out the Sproles/Woodhead/Riddick/NE type of RB who gains more yards through the air than on the ground. They're pretty rare, and they were even rarer a couple years ago when I set up this system. Plus, I have been treating 0 or 0.5 PPR as the default scoring system.

Compared to other RB roles, I guess weight is less important for this sort of RB, agility is more important (3 cone & short shuttle), success as kick/punt returners is more important, elusiveness in space is more important, elusiveness in traffic is less important, and obviously receiving production is more important and rushing production is less important. The team he ends up on, and the things the coaches say about his role, are also more important (since there are only a few teams that make heavy use of this sort of RB - even Sproles himself hasn't had much fantasy value outside of New Orleans).

Ervin's TDs in the return game are a positive indicator, but his lack of big plays as a receiver are a negative indicator. I haven't watched him play yet, so I don't have strong opinions.

Sporles was drafted in the 4th round at 130 overall.

Woodhead was undrafted.

Riddick went in the 6th at 199.

Sure you want your system to find these guys but I think the success of these types of players is so much more reliant on coaches and system.

Brief updates:

Weigh-ins at the Senior Bowl, Shrine Game, and NFLPA Collegiate Bowl were mostly as expected, so no big changes with that information. Biggest mover was USM's Mike Thomas, who measured in at a bigger-than-expected 6'1" 197 - that moves him up in my ratings, although not by enough to pass anyone in the rankings. I'm currently not doing anything with the hand & arm size measurements, but maybe I should. Last offseason I looked at correlations and found that receivers with smaller hands dropped more passes in the NFL. Players with longer arms also had more drops, but they had higher YPT too.

I've watched some more of Aaron Green and he continues to look unimpressive. Tends not to get much more than what's blocked. I watched Alex Collins against Toledo and it was the worst game of his that I've seen - I didn't spot a single play where he got more than 5 yards after the initial tackling opportunity. Paul Perkins & Jordan Howard are the 2 guys who I would most like to see some more game tape of.

Biggest combine snubs, according to my numbers:

WR: Mike Thomas (USM), Jakeem Grant (Texas Tech), Bryce Treggs (Cal), Devin Lucien (Arizona St.), Daniel Braverman (Western Michigan)

QB: Matt Johnson (Bowling Green)

No obvious snubs at RB (apparently Matt Breida is returning to school, which I'd missed in this post), and I haven't been tracking TEs.

ZWK said:

Biggest combine snubs, according to my numbers:

WR: Mike Thomas (USM), Jakeem Grant (Texas Tech), Bryce Treggs (Cal), Devin Lucien (Arizona St.), Daniel Braverman (Western Michigan)

QB: Matt Johnson (Bowling Green)

No obvious snubs at RB (apparently Matt Breida is returning to school, which I'd missed in this post), and I haven't been tracking TEs.

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As I said earlier, Treggs doesn't look like a serious pro prospect. Both Trevor Davis and Kenny Lawler have stronger cases. 

ZWK, I may have missed this somewhere in the previous discussion. But how does your formula factor in receiving ability for RBs? Watching Kenneth Dixon's tape vs Arkansas State (6 catches, 113 yards, 2 TDs receiving) it's clear that he is a well above average threat out of the backfield. 

Is that factored in? And to what extent? 

mikel2014 said:

ZWK, I may have missed this somewhere in the previous discussion. But how does your formula factor in receiving ability for RBs? Watching Kenneth Dixon's tape vs Arkansas State (6 catches, 113 yards, 2 TDs receiving) it's clear that he is a well above average threat out of the backfield. 

Is that factored in? And to what extent? 

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RB receiving does get factored in. It gets about 30% as much weight as rushing does. The main receiving stat that I look at is just rec yards per game, though I also give some weight to big plays (20+ yd rec) and efficiency (YPR & YPT).

There is currently something screwy going on which is causing 2015 receiving stats to not show up in my RB spreadsheet or be included in the player ratings there. That is because of a bug at College Football Reference which I've reported to them. But the rankings that I have been posting in this thread have included RB receiving.

CalBear said:

As I said earlier, Treggs doesn't look like a serious pro prospect. Both Trevor Davis and Kenny Lawler have stronger cases. 

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Davis and Lawler did both make the combine, so apparently the NFL decision makers agree with you on how they compare. My numbers put Davis & Lawler both well below the range that successful NFL prospects usually come from. I shared some numbers before which show why that's the case with Lawler.

Treggs is only slightly below the range where successful WRs come from (good enough to rank 11th by my formulas in this weak draft class). I'm not very optimistic on Treggs (since he is slightly below my typical cutoff, plus he had a favorable situation with Goff throwing him the ball, plus NFL decision makers don't like him), but I would've at least liked to see him (and the other borderline-by-my-numbers WRs that I listed) get a shot at the combine, given that 40+ WRs get invited. You described Treggs as "very good college receiver, hard worker, good route runner, but lacks the physical tools to make it in the NFL" - I think guys like that should get their physical tools measured on a level playing field at the combine.

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Laquon Treadwell: not running at the combine doesn't make much of a difference in my rating of him, since my formulas are down on him because of questions about his production and not because of questions about his athleticism. It does hurt him a little, though - I have been crediting him with an estimated 4.52 40 (which is nfldraftscout's estimate), and I should probably knock that down closer to 4.60.

RB sleepers: I've watched some videos of Daniel Lasco, Tre Madden, Tyler Ervin, Chase Price, Josh Ferguson, and Marshaun Coprich. Lasco & Madden showed signs of potential, with Lasco showing some elusiveness in space and Madden showing some traits of a downhill power runner, although it's hard to tell with the small sample size. Not impressed by Ervin, Price, Ferguson, or Coprich.

Ervin looks nothing like Darren Sproles (who he has apparently been compared to). Sproles is short, thick, and shifty; Ervin is none of those. Ervin has some success making guys miss in space when he is heading downhill with a head of steam, but he doesn't have the short-area quickness to be elusive in other circumstances. Dump the ball off to Sproles with a LB on him and you can expect Sproles to make things happen. Get it out to Ervin and it looks more like this.

Chase Price seeks contact and shows some power to grind out yards. Watch him knock a DB on his back. Unfortunately, he is only 200 pounds. That style is not going to work when he's playing NFL defenses rather than University of Cincinnati. You want guys his size to be able to elude defenders in space, not lower the shoulder. He also doesn't look very quick; nfldraftscout has him estimated at 4.72 for the 40 and that seems plausible. Add 30 pounds each to Pumphrey and Price and they're an intriguing lightning-thunder combo; at their actual sizes I guess it works at San Diego State.

I don't have much to say about Josh Ferguson or Marshaun Coprich. They just looked outmatched.

Any info on TE prospects ZWK?

I'm looking for more opinions on Jake Mcgee (Florida) and Austin Hooper (Stanford). Both seem to be flying a little under radars.

Run It Up said:

Any info on TE prospects ZWK?

I'm looking for more opinions on Jake Mcgee (Florida) and Austin Hooper (Stanford). Both seem to be flying a little under radars.

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Just looking at receiving stats, and ignoring everything else (level of competition, size, athleticism, etc.), here is how I'd rank the 15 TEs who are at the combine:

12.1    Tyler Higbee    Western Kentucky    38/563/8, 11.4 YPT, 6 25+
10.1    Thomas Duarte    UCLA    53/872/10, 9.4 YPT, 10 25+

7.6    Ben Braunecker    Harvard    48/850/8, 8 25+

4.6    Stephen Anderson    California    46/661/5, 6 25+
4.1    Beau Sandland    Montana St.    37/632/9, 4 25+
3.4    Hunter Henry    Arkansas    51/739/3, 9.3 YPT, 6 25+

0.5    David Morgan    Texas-San Antonio    45/566/5, 7.4 YPT, 4 25+
-0.1    Jerell Adams    South Carolina    28/421/3, 7.8 YPT, 6 25+
-0.1    Jake McGee    Florida    28/374/5, 4 25+
-0.3    Austin Hooper    Stanford    34/438/6, 7.5 YPT, 3 25+
-1.2    David Grinnage    N.C. State    27/358/5, 1 25+
-1.2    Bryce Williams    East Carolina    58/588/4, 7.1 YPT, 2 25+
-1.6    Nick Vannett    Ohio St.    19/220/5, 1 25+
-2.2    Ryan Malleck    Virginia Tech    21/289/2, 8.6 YPT, 3 25+
-2.7    Temarrick Hemingway    South Carolina St.    38/418/1, 2 25+

The first number is a rating based on yards per target, rec TD per game, rec yd per game, 25+ rec per game, and rec 1st down per game. The scale is meaningless except to show how they compare with each other. I haven't looked at previous draft classes using these numbers, so I don't have a great sense of how these guys compare.

On first pass, I'd say that the top 2-3 guys stand out ahead of everyone else, and it's not looking good for anyone outside the top 6.

This year, Jake McGee had 41/381/4 with 5.8 YPT and 0 25+ rec. That is pretty bad - only 4 TDs and his longest gain was 19 yards. He is only rated as high as he is because his 2012 season was better.

The stats that I've included above for Jake McGee, and everyone else, are for his best season. (e.g., Those are Stephen Anderson's 2014 stats.) For now, I only have YPT for 2015. Also, 3 of these guys are non-FBS and therefore missing some stats.

Duarte is 6'3" 225 and listed as a WR. 

Borden said:

Duarte is 6'3" 225 and listed as a WR. 

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I just got my list from here, which has him as a TE. His scouting report calls him a WR/TE tweener, and claims that he has played both positions at UCLA. I'll keep on eye on where teams think he'll play in the NFL.

ZWK said:

I just got my list from here, which has him as a TE. His scouting report calls him a WR/TE tweener, and claims that he has played both positions at UCLA. I'll keep on eye on where teams think he'll play in the NFL.

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Mmmh. Draftbreakdown has him a TE too. 

Not sure how difficult it would be for you but any chance we (I) could see how he stacks up if gets put in with the WRs?

Borden said:

Mmmh. Draftbreakdown has him a TE too. 

Not sure how difficult it would be for you but any chance we (I) could see how he stacks up if gets put in with the WRs?

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Duarte is already in there. Ranks 39th for most productive 2015 season. My WR spreadsheet is set up to include the 100 players with the most receiving yards, including TEs (although this year everyone who made the cut is listed as a WR except for Akron's Jerome Lane who is listed as a LB).

For clarities sake, Mcgee broke his leg in September this season.

Was surprised to see Walterfootball has Hooper TE2 and Mcgee as T4. In contrast, I've seen several places suggest that Mcgee will go undrafted. Also has Higbee as TE7.

I'll be posting a bunch of updates as combine results come in.

I'm still trying to figure out what source to use for combine data. I'd like to get exact heights, rather than rounded to the nearest inch, which would rule out some of the obvious sources.

For TEs, I'm putting together a spreadsheet with college stats and workout numbers for this draft class and previous draft classes. That should be ready by the time TE workout numbers are in.

No major changes after the RB weighins. Most guys came in pretty closer to their estimates. A lot of the smaller backs weighed in a few pounds heavier than the estimate (Lasco, Washington, Smallwood, Taylor), which is slightly good news for them.

I'm noticing a lot of chatter about RB hand size. I did an analysis last year which found that WR hand size does predict drop rates in the NFL, and I wouldn't be surprised if RB hand size predicts fumble rates. But fumble rates are a relatively small part of my RB analysis, and I'd guess that hand size data would only add a little bit of information once you already know their college fumble rate. So I'm not planning to pay much attention to RB hand size.

I might look into doing something later this offseason with hand size measurements for WRs, TEs, and QBs (and perhaps also arm length for WR & TE). Unfortunately, the most convenient sources for historical combine results don't include these measurements, so it's not straightforward to run analyses to see how much these measures matter compared to other combine numbers.

ZWK said:

I'll be posting a bunch of updates as combine results come in.

I'm still trying to figure out what source to use for combine data. I'd like to get exact heights, rather than rounded to the nearest inch, which would rule out some of the obvious sources.

For TEs, I'm putting together a spreadsheet with college stats and workout numbers for this draft class and previous draft classes. That should be ready by the time TE workout numbers are in.

No major changes after the RB weighins. Most guys came in pretty closer to their estimates. A lot of the smaller backs weighed in a few pounds heavier than the estimate (Lasco, Washington, Smallwood, Taylor), which is slightly good news for them.

I'm noticing a lot of chatter about RB hand size. I did an analysis last year which found that WR hand size does predict drop rates in the NFL, and I wouldn't be surprised if RB hand size predicts fumble rates. But fumble rates are a relatively small part of my RB analysis, and I'd guess that hand size data would only add a little bit of information once you already know their college fumble rate. So I'm not planning to pay much attention to RB hand size.

I might look into doing something later this offseason with hand size measurements for WRs, TEs, and QBs (and perhaps also arm length for WR & TE). Unfortunately, the most convenient sources for historical combine results don't include these measurements, so it's not straightforward to run analyses to see how much these measures matter compared to other combine numbers.

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Thanks again, ZWK, for all the hard work you put into this....and for sharing it with all of us!

ZWK said:

I'll be posting a bunch of updates as combine results come in.

I'm still trying to figure out what source to use for combine data. I'd like to get exact heights, rather than rounded to the nearest inch, which would rule out some of the obvious sources.

For TEs, I'm putting together a spreadsheet with college stats and workout numbers for this draft class and previous draft classes. That should be ready by the time TE workout numbers are in.

No major changes after the RB weighins. Most guys came in pretty closer to their estimates. A lot of the smaller backs weighed in a few pounds heavier than the estimate (Lasco, Washington, Smallwood, Taylor), which is slightly good news for them.

I'm noticing a lot of chatter about RB hand size. I did an analysis last year which found that WR hand size does predict drop rates in the NFL, and I wouldn't be surprised if RB hand size predicts fumble rates. But fumble rates are a relatively small part of my RB analysis, and I'd guess that hand size data would only add a little bit of information once you already know their college fumble rate. So I'm not planning to pay much attention to RB hand size.

I might look into doing something later this offseason with hand size measurements for WRs, TEs, and QBs (and perhaps also arm length for WR & TE). Unfortunately, the most convenient sources for historical combine results don't include these measurements, so it's not straightforward to run analyses to see how much these measures matter compared to other combine numbers.

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Lots of interesting things when you look at that chart. I think Mike Evans might have single handedly ruined the low drop rate of 9 5/8 last year. 

Test-Retest Reliability (aka Whose hands grew the most over the past month?)

The Senior Bowl, Shrine Game, and Collegiate Bowl all have weighins which measure height, weight, arm length, and hand size. 80 players* got measured at one of these events, and then got measured again at the Combine (so far - DL, LB, and DB still to come). That creates a perfect opportunity to measure test-retest reliability - how consistent are the two sets of measurements with each other?

QB Brandon Allen, for example, weighed in at 6'1.5", 221 lb. at the Senior Bowl, with 30.5" arms and 8.5" hands. At the Combine, he weighed in at 6'1", 217 lb., with 31.25" arms and 8.875" hands. He lost 0.5" of height and 4 pounds, and gained 0.75" of arm length and 0.375" of hand size. (Though note that only Combine heights that I have are rounded to the nearest inch, so he may have lost as little as 0.125" of height.) How typical are those results? Did Allen get an unusually large increase in hand (and arm?) size from his work with a masseuse?

On average, the 80 players lost 0.07" of height, gained 0.40 lbs., and gained 0.40" of arm length and 0.27" of hand size. So the growth of Allen's hands was far from unique - it was actually fairly close to the typical result.

Those numbers are just the average change - some players had an increase in hand size, some had a decrease. We can find the typical size of the change by taking the standard deviation of the change in hand size, and comparing it to the standard deviation of the players' hand sizes as measured at the Combine. Players' weights by 0.09 standard deviations, height by 0.13 standard deviations (though that is inflated by rounding), arm length by 0.31 standard deviations, and hand size by 0.55 standard deviations. Another way to put it: the correlation between the Senior Bowl (etc.) measure and the Combine measure is 0.996 for weight, 0.99 for height, 0.94 for arm length, and 0.85 for hand size. (Though some of the reason why weight seems so stable is that there is such a wide variation in weight - gaining or losing a few pounds doesn't make much of a dent in the weight gap between offensive linemen and wide receivers.)

In other words, knowing a player's Senior Bowl weight gives you a pretty precise estimate of what he'll weigh at the combine (compared to the overall variation in player weights). Knowing his Senior Bowl hand size gives you a fuzzier guess at what his combine hand size measurement will be (compared to the overall variation in player hand size). Though it is still pretty informative (e.g., psychologists are reasonably happy if their scales have a test-retest correlation over 0.70, and hand size had a 0.85 correlation).

Now that we have both sets of measurements, is our best guess of a player's actual size his combine measurement, which are standardized and (hopefully) done more carefully and professionally? Or should we take some sort of (weighted?) average of the two measurements?

Back to the title question: "Whose hands grew the most over the past month?" Unfortunately, the answer is that there is an 8-way tie, with 8 players' hands "growing" by a full inch. If we look at combined hand & arm growth, then the Stretch Armstrong award is shared by 2 RBs, Kenneth Dixon and Kenyan Drake, who each had 1" of arm growth and 1" of hand growth.

A spreadsheet with all 80 players' measurement changes is here. Here are the biggest growers and shrinkers:

Height
+0.75" Devon Cajuste    WO    Stanford
+0.625" Malcolm Mitchell    WO    Georgia
+0.5" Jacoby Brissett    QB    North Carolina State
+0.5" Brandon Wilds    RB    South Carolina
+0.5" Joe Thuney    OL    North Carolina State

-0.625" Willie Beavers    OL    Western Michigan
-0.625" Le'Raven Clark    OL    Texas Tech
-0.625" Stephane Nembot    OL    Colorado
-0.625" Brandon Shell    OL    South Carolina
-0.625" John Theus    OL    Georgia
-0.75" John Lunsford    PK    Liberty
-0.875" Fahn Cooper    OL    Mississippi

Weight
+10 lb.   Alex Lewis    OL    Nebraska
+8 lb.    Parker Ehinger    OL    Cincinnati
+8 lb.    Alonzo Russell    WO    Toledo
+7 lb.    Joel Stave    QB    Wisconsin
+7 lb.    Beau Sandland    TE    Montana State
+7 lb.    Trevone Boykin    QB    TCU
+6 lb.    Drew Kaser    PK    Texas A&M

-6 lb.    Leonte Carroo    WO    Rutgers
-6 lb.    Darrell Greene    OL    San Diego State
-6 lb.    Dominique Robertson    OL    West Georgia
-9 lb.    Ryan Malleck    TE    Virginia Tech
-9 lb.    Jordan Payton    WO    UCLA
-10 lb.   Vadal Alexander    OL    LSU

Arms
+1.125"    Kyle Murphy    OL    Stanford
+1.125"    Tajae Sharpe    WO    Massachusetts
+1.125"    Chris Moore    WO    Cincinnati
+1"    Joel Stave    QB    Wisconsin
+1"    Drew Kaser    PK    Texas A&M
+1"    Jeff Driskel    QB    Louisiana Tech
+1"    Nick Vannett    TE    Ohio State
+1"    Cody Whitehair    OL    Kansas State
+1"    Kenneth Dixon    RB    Louisiana Tech
+1"    Kenyan Drake    RB    Alabama
+1"    Sebastian Tretola    OL    Arkansas
+1"    Spencer Drango    OL    Baylor
+1"    Leonte Carroo    WO    Rutgers
+1"    Vadal Alexander    OL    LSU

-0.375"    Geronimo Allison    WO    Illinois
-0.5"    Ben Braunecker    TE    Harvard
-0.625"    Jacoby Brissett    QB    North Carolina State
-0.875"    Vernon Adams    QB    Oregon

Hands
+1"    Kenneth Dixon    RB    Louisiana Tech
+1"    Kenyan Drake    RB    Alabama
+1"    Dak Prescott    QB    Mississippi State
+1"    Cody Kessler    QB    USC
+1"    Graham Glasgow    OL    Michigan
+1"    Jerell Adams    TE    South Carolina
+1"    Christian Westerman    OL    Arizona State
+1"    Ricardo Louis    WO    Auburn
+1"    Le'Raven Clark    OL    Texas Tech
+0.875"    Brandon Shell    OL    South Carolina
+0.75"    Charone Peake    WO    Clemson

-0.25"    Dan Vitale    RB    Northwestern
-0.25"    Dominique Robertson    OL    West Georgia
-0.375"    John Theus    OL    Georgia

* There were 82 players, but then I threw out Notre Dame WR Chris Brown and Marshall RB Devon Johnson. When I looked into their numbers more closely because the changes were implausibly large, I found that they had different Shrine Game measurements reported here and here.

Josh Doctson and Rashard Higgins both weighed in 7-8 pounds heavier than estimated. That's good news for both of them, since being skinny was one of the biggest negatives in their profiles.

The bad news is that they still both came in below a 26.0 BMI. Only 2 of the 36 successful/promising NFL WRs who entered the league since 2009 had a BMI below 26.0, AJ Green (25.9) and John Brown (25.7). And only 5 receivers with a BMI below 26.0 have been drafted in the first 2 rounds since 2009: Green, AJ Jenkins (25.6), Justin Hunter (23.9), Titus Young (24.0), and Paul Richardson (23.5).

Doctson and Higgins aren't the only ones below a 26.0 BMI this year:

Is there anything that the low BMI indicates? Increased injury potential, higher drop rate, inability to get off a jam, etc? 

Borden said:

Is there anything that the low BMI indicates?

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Good long-term health benefits.

Borden said:

Is there anything that the low BMI indicates? Increased injury potential, higher drop rate, inability to get off a jam, etc? 

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I'm not entirely sure. I'd guess that low BMI makes it harder to get off the jam and to make contested catches. It also might be a sign that a player has put in the work to get in shape. You could look through the list of low-BMI receivers and make your own guesses.

There is a correlation with NFL success. 22% of all WRs in a typical draft class have a BMI below 26.0, vs. 7% of first rounders and 6% of successful NFL WRs. Successful WRs have a narrower distribution of BMIs - they're also less likely to have a BMI over 28.5 (9% of all WRs vs. 3% of successful vs. 3% of first rounders).

ZWK said:

I'm not entirely sure. I'd guess that low BMI makes it harder to get off the jam and to make contested catches. It also might be a sign that a player has put in the work to get in shape. You could look through the list of low-BMI receivers and make your own guesses.

There is a correlation with NFL success. 22% of all WRs in a typical draft class have a BMI below 26.0, vs. 7% of first rounders and 6% of successful NFL WRs. Successful WRs have a narrower distribution of BMIs - they're also less likely to have a BMI over 28.5 (9% of all WRs vs. 3% of successful vs. 3% of first rounders).

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From what I remember of wdcrob's WR analyses, if you were "Fast" (4.4 40 or below) and had decent collegiate receiving measures, the BMI was not a critical factor.  In all other cases, a BMI below the ~26.5 range was - if not a red flag - a very dark yellow one.

Looking at your lists of "elite" and "promising" WRs seems to bear that theory out - almost all of the guys who are below that BMI qualify as "Fast", often comfortably (Hilton, Sanders, Wallace, M. Bryant, John Brown). The exceptions are A. Brown and A.J. Green - who seem to have been put on this Earth to break every statistical model - as well as a bunch of guys I'm not convinced will ever function as true #1s (Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Allan Hurns)

CalBear said:

Daniel Lasco is also worth looking at at the RB position. Injuries killed a lot of his senior season. He's got good size, what looks like decent speed, and can catch; I think Forte is the best comp for him. McShay has him as the #7 RB but he could go anywhere from 5 to 20.

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Lasco blew up the combine, so now I'd like to know more about him. Do you have more insight on what happened to him this season? He played 8 games, and only averaged 8.6 touches per game. And 4 other Cal RBs had more receptions than he did. Was he playing hobbled?

From the very limited look I had on him:

Pros:

decent burst

good balance

works moves well

catches the ball okay

okay-ish at recognizing blitzer

willing to try to engage in pass pro

reads cut back/zone alright

Cons:

not a power back

gets arm tackled too much

doesn't always diagnose pass rush properly

gets knocked back too much in pass pro

I haven't seen much of Lasco yet but he looks better than I thought. That Cal OL has look so bad at times. From what I've seen he looks alright but nothing about his game demands attention from the NFL.

Just not terribly interested in this class at all though I appreciate all the work that's going into this thread. When looking at this draft a year ago just for the purposes of my favorite club what struck me was that the talent was heavily in DL, OL, to a lesser extent with the secondary as well, and maybe a bit with LB's, but the talent at QB, WR, and RB was largely god awful. Nine months later and I still feel exactly the same. About the only interesting thing I could say about the WR position this year is that superficially it appears a bit bloated with talent that would typically grade out as players worthy of a draft pick between slot 45 and slot 115 or thereabouts. Superficially I feel like there are a lot of WR's in this class with third and fourth round grades, more than normal, and a decent amount of late first to mid-2nd round talent as well, but remarkably lacking in top end talent at both WR and RB (and to some extent, QB as well). It's not a '14 or '15 class, both of which to me were rather deep in cream, and in depth, but rather a bit more like the '11-'13 classes all of which were largely disappointing, although with that depth of talent in that 45th-115th overall area (or thereabouts) it's a bit different. Guys like Doctson, Miller, Coleman, Caroo, Thomas, Boyd, Wilson, Fuller etc a good nice pile of WR's should go in that zone, and that's definitely more than I recall being selected in those three rounds and the tail end of round 1 in several previous subpar WR drafts. Still, for me, it wasn't enough to hold onto my 2nd rounders, not when the '17 class is just so much better and deeper. However thanks again for the deep write ups, I'll be consulting it come my rookie draft when I'm trying to figure out how to use or trade away my third and fourth rounders. 

ZWK said:

Lasco blew up the combine, so now I'd like to know more about him. Do you have more insight on what happened to him this season? He played 8 games, and only averaged 8.6 touches per game. And 4 other Cal RBs had more receptions than he did. Was he playing hobbled?

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Yes, Lasco was injured most of the year. He got a hip injury in garbage time of the San Diego State game (he went 19/123/1), which was originally dismissed as not much of a problem, but he never really came back healthy. He missed the next two games against Texas and Washington, then came back against Washington State and hurt his ankle. He never really had a full game the rest of the season. 

I like Lasco. He's a one-cut runner with a little bit of wiggle and some size, and he's a good receiver. As I said, I think Forte is the best comp; he can break tackles but he's not a beast like Marshawn, and he can move in the open field but not as much as, say, Vereen (or certainly Best). He tends to do a good job of getting what's there on the play, and can break long gains. I'd expect he'll be effective somewhere. 

The agility numbers from the combine are more than I would have expected from him, but he's definitely an athletic guy.

RB risers: Daniel Lasco, Derrick Henry, Keith Marshall, DeAndre Washington, Tyler Ervin
RB fallers: Alex Collins, Kelvin Taylor

My current top 15, by the formulas (note that most of these tier drops are fairly small, and the players within each tier are pretty tightly packed):

Ezekiel Elliott    Ohio State

    
Derrick Henry    Alabama
    
DeAndre Washington    Texas Tech
Kenneth Dixon    La Tech
C.J. Prosise    Notre Dame
Jordan Howard    Indiana
Paul Perkins    UCLA
    
Alex Collins    Arkansas
Daniel Lasco    California
    
Jonathan Williams    Arkansas
Keith Marshall    Georgia
Wendell Smallwood    WVU
Devontae Booker    Utah
Kenyan Drake    Alabama
    
Tyler Ervin    SJSU

Compare:

RB A RB B
Ht: 5'7.9" 5'8.4"
Wt: 204 202
40: 4.49 4.53
Vert: 34.5 33.5
Brd: 118 122
3C: 7.03 6.91
SS: 4.20 4.12
Bench: 24 19

Over his 4-year career, Keith Marshall had a total of 9 runs of 20+ yards, on 217 non-red-zone attempts. That's 4.1% of his carries, which is well below the 6.0% average. 7 of the 9 came in 2012, when he had 103 non-RZ carries. For comparison, this year Sony Michel had 15 on 185 carries and Nick Chubb had 8 on 81 carries. Not what you hope to see from a speedster.

Not very elusive in the Penn State game which just got put up. There were a couple plays where you could generously say he ran through an arm tackle (an out-of-position defender dove at him and may have gotten a hand on him), but not much change-of-direction or power to beat defenders. He looks somewhat better in this highlight video (mostly from his freshman year), but it still paints a similar picture. Comparing his highlights with videos of Tyler Ervin and Kenyan Drake (which I also just watched) makes Drake look like the most complete RB of the three in terms of ability to beat defenders and Marshall the most one-dimensional.

Updated WR rankings:

8.06    Leonte Carroo
7.77    Corey Coleman
    
6.47    Will Fuller
5.99    Josh Doctson
    
5.22    Sterling Shepard
4.33    Pharoh Cooper
    
3.41    Rashard Higgins
2.64    Tyler Boyd
2.49    Roger Lewis
2.38    Mike Thomas
    
-0.72    Bryce Treggs
-1.40    Jakeem Grant

Coleman, Fuller, Doctson, and Shepard helped their cause at the combine, Fuller with his speed (which is what you want to see from a thin WR) and the others mostly with the athleticism shown by their jumps. Cooper, Boyd, Lewis, and (especially) Higgins hurt their cause with lousy workout numbers (Higgins and Boyd also have the low-BMI flag). Carroo stays at #1 with ok/middling workout numbers, though his lead on the field has shrunk.

Not on this list, Kolby Listenbee & Malcolm MItchell had great workout numbers, Braxton Miller had ok/middling numbers (not good enough to get that excited about him as a project), Laquon Treadwell and Michael Thomas both had mediocre workout numbers, and Nelson Spruce, Kenny Lawler, Duke Williams, and (especially) De'Runnya Wilson had terrible numbers.

In addition to including combine heights, weights, and drills, I am also now incorporating arm length in my formula. I've set it up so that an inch of arm length is worth just as much as an inch of height, because that seems plausible. I could imagine arm length turning out to be more important than that, because in theory it increases catch radius in all directions.

Not an impressive day at the combine for this TE class. The top 3 TEs in terms of athleticism/size, by my numbers, are Beau Sandland (Montana State), Ben Braunecker (Harvard), and Jerell Adams (South Carolina). The 2 small school guys had averageish 40s but did pretty well on the other drills, while Adams was the reverse. Sandland & Braunecker also had very good production, although that's without making any adjustment for their level of competition.

Higbee (who had great production Western Kentucky) and Henry (who had pretty good production at Arkansas) did not do the drills at the combine.

I have put together a TE spreadsheet. The format is somewhat different from the other spreadsheets - everyone is in the same sheet (there aren't different tabs for different years). The way that it's set up now, rows 3-99 (where the player's name is bolded) are the ones to look at. They show receiving stats for the player's best season, along with the combine numbers and ratings. Rows 100+ show the receiving stats for players' second- and third- best seasons, if the receiver had more than one decent season. The 3 columns that I've bolded are the player's career production rating (which is based on his best receiving season and his second-best season), the size/athleticism rating (which is based on combine stats, especially the 40 and the jumps), and the overall rating (which is the sum of the other 2 ratings, with a little extra weight given to whichever he was better at). It is currently sorted by overall rating.

The spreadsheet contains every TE drafted in the first 4 rounds since 2006, plus some other notable TEs from the same time period, and every TE who is at the combine this year (with this year's draft class highlighted in yellow).

The stats in the current version of the spreadsheet are less sophisticated than the ones that I have for WRs. In particular, there are no team adjustments, so they are probably overrating TEs who came from prolific passing offenses (like West Kentucky's Tyler Higbee and Cal's Stephen Anderson).

As is apparent from the spreadsheet, my approach works less well for TEs than for RBs or WRs. There are a fair number of successful NFL TEs who were unremarkable in terms of college production and combine athleticism (e.g., Jordan Reed, Martellus Bennett). I think a big part of the problem is that TE production is more dependent on scheme/role, so the best TEs don't necessarily put up huge numbers in college (and the guys who great-for-a-TE numbers may just have been in more of a WR-like role). There is also the issue of transfers from basketball who didn't produce much as a football player because their focus was elsewhere (e.g., Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron) - they cause the profile of "great athlete with limited production" to be far more promising for TEs than for WRs.

Still, it doesn't seem to be completely worthless. For example: Gronk has the best college production on record, Vernon Davis the best athleticism, and they both sit in the top 5 in overall rating.

Looking at this year's class, my formula still likes Tyler Higbee, Thomas Duarte, and Stephen Anderson based on their production (despite their mediocre/missing combines), in adddition to Beau Sandland & Ben Braunecker. Well behind them, Jerell Adams and Hunter Henry lead the pack.

ZWK said:

I mostly focus on offensive players, but here's a quick look at pass rushers to see who has been the most disruptive at getting sacks & tackles for a loss. Rating is based on sacks and tackles for a loss, with extra weight given to games against Power 5 opponents. It includes both 2014 & 2015 stats, with more weight on the player's best season.

Here are the top 20:

Rtg Name Team Yr Pos 2015RTG 2014RTG
6.5 Derek Barnett Tennessee SO DL 2.3 9.3 *
6.5 Emmanuel Ogbah Okla St JR DL 6.0 6.8
6.3 Devonte Fields Louisville JR LB 9.0 -4.5
6.3 Antonio Longino Ariz St SR LB 9.0 -4.5
5.7 Shaq Lawson Clemson JR DL 7.7 -2.4
5.6 Joey Bosa Ohio State JR DL 1.0 8.7
5.1 Myles Garrett Texas A&M SO DL 6.6 -0.8 *
5.0 Carl Nassib Penn State SR DL 7.3 -4.5
4.8 Ejuan Price Pittsburgh SR DL 7.1 -4.5
4.7 Eric Striker Oklahoma SR LB 3.8 5.2
4.5 Kevin Dodd Clemson JR DL 6.7 -4.5
4.2 DeMarcus Walker FSU JR DL 6.4 -4.5
3.8 Jatavis Brown Akron SR LB 5.1 -1.5
3.7 Yannick Ngakoue Maryland JR DL 5.0 -1.4
3.0 DeForest Buckner Oregon SR DL 4.0 -1.3
2.9 Mike Rose NC State SR DL 3.6 0.4
2.8 Shawn Oakman Baylor SR DL -3.6 7.0
2.6 Marquis Haynes Miss SO DL 3.9 -2.7 *
2.4 Jonathan Allen Alabama JR DL 3.9 -3.4
2.3 Joe Schobert Wisconsin SR LB 3.1 -0.8

(* not draft eligible)

Click to expand...

My previous list showed the leaderboard for pass rusher production. Looking at the combine results for DL/LB, the top 20 front 7 players in terms of athleticism/size are:

8.8    Travis Feeney    OLB    Washington
8.5    Emmanuel Ogbah    DE    Oklahoma St.
8.4    Darron Lee    OLB    Ohio St.
6.9    Alex McCalister    DE    Florida
6.4    Charles Tapper    DE    Oklahoma
5.6    Shaq Lawson    DE    Clemson
5.1    Bronson Kaufusi    DE    BYU
5.0    Robert Nkemdiche    DT    Mississippi
5.0    Joey Bosa    DE    Ohio St.
4.8    Matt Judon    DE    Grand Valley St.
4.7    Leonard Floyd    OLB    Georgia
4.7    Stephen Weatherly    OLB    Vanderbilt
4.7    Connor Wujciak    DT    Boston College
4.6    B.J. Goodson    OLB    Clemson
4.2    Dean Lowry    DE    Northwestern
4.1    Shilique Calhoun    DE    Michigan St.
4.1    Shawn Oakman    DE    Baylor
3.5    Noah Spence    OLB    Eastern Kentucky
3.4    Sheldon Rankins    DT    Louisville
3.3    Dadi Nicolas    DE    Virginia Tech

Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson, Joey Bosa, and Shawn Oakman are the only players who made both lists. Interestingly, they rank in that order on each list, with Ogbah shining as #2 in production and #2 in athleticism.

If we extend each list out to the top 30, then Carl Nassib, Travis Feeney, Bronson Kaufusi, and Shilique Calhoun also make both lists. Nassib shined more in terms of production, while the other 3 shined more at the combine.

I've put together a pass rushers' spreadsheet with the numbers that this is based on.

Putting the two numbers together (for players that I have both numbers for), and giving extra weight to whichever of the two the player was worse at, I get this overall pass rushing prospect leaderboard:

21.5    Emmanuel Ogbah    DL    Okla St
16.8    Shaq Lawson    DL    Clemson
15.7    Joey Bosa    DL    Ohio State
12.0    Travis Feeney    LB    Washington
10.3    Carl Nassib    DL    Penn State
9.6    Shawn Oakman    DL    Baylor
6.5    Bronson Kaufusi    DL    BYU
5.5    Shilique Calhoun    DL    Mich St
4.8    Alex McCalister    DL    Florida
4.6    DeForest Buckner    DL    Oregon
3.7    Kevin Dodd    DL    Clemson
2.5    Joe Schobert    LB    Wisconsin
1.7    Charles Tapper    DL    Oklahoma
0.7    Romeo Okwara    DL    Notre Dame
0.5    Jonathan Bullard    DL    Florida

Any meshed WR/RB rankings coming out?

Borden said:

Any meshed WR/RB rankings coming out?

Click to expand...

I could work on that.

I was also thinking of 1) updating my rankings to put more weight on my personal opinions and less on the raw calculations (e.g., I think that Doctson is too low and Smallwood is too high in the rankings that I posted during the combine), 2) updating my multiyear prospect rankings, so that we can see how this RB class compares with previous RB classes (and WRs with previous WRs) now that the combine numbers are in, and 3) improving my TE ratings to include more of what I do with my WR ratings.

ZWK said:

I could work on that.

I was also thinking of 1) updating my rankings to put more weight on my personal opinions and less on the raw calculations (e.g., I think that Doctson is too low and Smallwood is too high in the rankings that I posted during the combine), 2) updating my multiyear prospect rankings, so that we can see how this RB class compares with previous RB classes (and WRs with previous WRs) now that the combine numbers are in, and 3) improving my TE ratings to include more of what I do with my WR ratings.

Click to expand...

Both would be great. It would definitely be helpful to see a comparison of pure analytic rankings vs. combined "practical" rankings. 

Is there something in your metrics that has Doctson as a standout or at least something that you change/weight differently to adjust your standing? Have you tried taking his age out of the equitation?

With Doctson, I think it's more a matter of the guys ahead of him having negatives which seem stronger than Doctson's negatives.

Doctson has three main negatives: extremely low yards after the catch (only 3.6 YAC per reception), low BMI (25.9), and relatively old (23.7 this September). He also only had one big season, which hurts him a bit relative to Coleman. I think that those are all legit negatives.

Fuller has a ridiculously high drop rate (14% as of midway through this year, and 10.8% of ?targets? last year), which could easily sink his career. He is also much thinner (25.1 BMI). My formulas count those against him, but wind up giving him an overall score which is higher than Doctson's. To me, they seem like bigger negatives.

Coleman has been playing for a very explosive Baylor offense which previously produced big numbers (according to my WR ratings) for guys like Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright, and (to a lesser extent) Antwan Goodley. My formulas try to adjust for the team offense, but I think they tend to not adjust enough in cases like his (partly because if they adjusted more, they would also be downgrading guys like Beckham & Landry who have good WR teammates). Coleman also has a high drop rate (10% as of midway through this year, and 8.6% of ?targets? last year).

Carroo actually has a pretty clean profile. Biggest negative is that his size/athleticism is only slightly better than average. (This is sticking to my own impressions; if I also take into account what other people think of him then his low conventional rating would be a bigger negative.)

So I think I'd rank them Carroo-Doctson-Coleman-Fuller based on my numbers & impressions. And if I had to draft today, also taking into account what other people think of these players, Doctson would be the first WR that I'd take.

I know this is going to sound like I'm just promoting Doctson but does your formula take into account plays with an expected YAC of zero? TDs, sideline outs, diving catches (since there's no contact needed to be down), maybe heavily contested balls. 

I assume that you don't have the time to go through very game for every player from every year and personal track those situations. And that every player has these same variables. Not questioning your process, just trying to help. Also, the better you feel about your results, the more I get to lean on them. 

I'm just taking the YAC number from that Rotoworld article. I don't have a more detailed breakdown.

Greg Peshek used to publish more detailed breakdowns of receiving stats, including types of routes run, depth of target, and YPR on screens. I made use of those breakdowns to get a better estimate of receivers' after-the-catch abilities. But he stopped doing those a couple years ago, so I'm using the data that I have which I think is still somewhat informative.

Coleman, Fuller, and Carroo all had TDs on a higher fraction of their receptions than Doctson, so Doctson isn't penalized relative to them by the "problem" of being unable to get more YAC because he ran into the end zone. Watching Doctson against West Virginia, I did see a lot of plays where he didn't have much chance at YAC. But there were also plays where he had a chance and didn't get any (e.g., a screen that went nowhere). He also did have one slant that he took to the house which was called back because of an offensive line penalty. My guess is that he's below average at getting yards after the catch, but not as bad as that number makes him look.

I was just looking over PFF's scouting reports on Doctson, Coleman, Carroo, and Treadwell. They sprinkle in some stats which I've added to my spreadsheet (e.g., Carroo's 2.1% drop rate and 7.2 YAC avg). It looks like they have Coleman & Carroo ranked 1-2, so maybe I should stick closer to my what my numbers are telling me?

This bit of theirs on Treadwell sounds pretty damning to my ears:

Biggest concern:


• Separation in general is really poor, will have to win in the catch point in the NFL
• Inconsistent at the catch point. Out muscles defensive backs at times, but loses at others

Click to expand...

But they still have him as a top 5 WR, and top 32 overall, so I guess they disagree.

Catching up on more from PFF, they say that Keith Marshall graded out well as a runner this year (for his 68 carries) and had a good number of missed tackles. They've watched much more of his carries than I have, so I'm inclined to put more stock in their numbers than in mine. The negatives that I saw in Marshall's game are fairly similar to negatives that I saw in Lamar Miller when he was coming out of school, so they're definitely not fatal to his prospects. I'm pretty confident that he belongs somewhere in my top 13 RBs; it's a hard group to sort out after the top 2.

At QB, PFF shares my pessimism on Hackenberg. They say that, over the past 2 years, his "on-field play has been subpar by every measure."

Doctson: He doesn't want to take big shots. I just watched all his breakdowns again and it shows. His drops mostly came on inside routes when he was in the trolley tracks. He's good with going OB instead of fighting for extra yards. He's okay with dragging a DB 5 yards into the end zone or to pick up the extra yards but he's not tearing out of it like some wild beast. I did see him throw a nice juke on a would be tackler but that's rare. For his YAC yards, I wouldn't expect much but if he does have a lane he will rip of a huge chunk or take it to the house. 

Marshall: He has the physical tools but in the one game I've seen his vision looks questionable. However, it's the reverse of what you'd expect. He runs to tight the DL and doesn't bounce it out enough. His highlights show very good vision though. He's continually moving up my rankings. I have a 1.08 pick that if I can't move I will take Marshall. He's got a lot of upside. 

QB passing velocity at the combine, from Ourlads:

Paxton Lynch, Memphis 59
Jared Goff, California 58
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State 57
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State 56
Joel Stave, Wisconsin 56
Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State 56
Josh Woodrum, Liberty 56
Cody Kessler, Southern Cal 55
Brandon Allen, Arkansas 55
Trevone Boykin, TCU 55
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State 54
Nate Sudfeld, Indiana 54
Kevin Hogan, Stanford 53
Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky 53
Vernon Adams, Oregon 53
Jeff Driskel, Louisana Tech 52
Connor Cook, Michigan State 50

As I wrote about last offseason, anything below 55 mph looks to be a bit of a warning sign. So Goff, Wentz, and Lynch pass this arm strength test with flying colors. My guy Brandon Allen and not-my-guy Christian Hackenberg also make the cut. Major flag on Connor Cook, and to a lesser extent Adams & Prescott.

Here's how this year's RB class compares to the previous few, based on how I evaluated each class before their draft. I'm rating this year's draft class strictly by the numbers - I haven't accounted for my own impressions - but the previous draft classes do include adjustments based on my impressions. Much of this is approximate, because of imperfect recordkeeping along with changes to my formulas.

Eddie Lacy    2013
        
Todd Gurley    2015
Melvin Gordon    2015
Christine Michael    2013
Carlos Hyde    2014
Ezekiel Elliott    2016
        
Lache Seastrunk    2014
Jay Ajayi    2015
Tre Mason    2014
Giovani Bernard    2013
Ameer Abdullah    2015
Knile Davis    2013
    
Derrick Henry    2016
Jeremy Hill    2014
Jerick McKinnon    2014
        
Jonathan Franklin    2013
Tevin Coleman    2015
Duke Johnson    2015
Bishop Sankey    2014
DeAndre Washington    2016
Kenneth Dixon    2016
C.J. Prosise    2016
Jordan Howard    2016
David Johnson    2015
Marcus Lattimore    2013
Stephen Houston    2014
Henry Josey    2014
Zac Stacy    2013
Paul Perkins    2016
D.J. Harper    2013
Le'Veon Bell    2013
Cierre Wood    2013
Kenjon Barner    2013
Montee Ball    2013
Latavius Murray    2013
Isaiah Crowell    2014
Andre Williams    2014
Charles Sims    2014
Dri Archer    2014
Alex Collins    2016
Devonta Freeman    2014
David Cobb    2015
        
Daniel Lasco    2016
T.J. Yeldon    2015
Cameron Artis-Payne    2015
Karlos Williams    2015
Josh Robinson    2015
Jonathan Williams    2016
Corey Grant    2015
David Fluellen    2014
Treavor Scales    2013
Jeremy Langford    2015
Michael Ford    2013
Wendell Smallwood    2016
Robert Godhigh    2014
Keith Marshall     2016
Matthew Tucker    2013
Mike Davis    2015
Devontae Booker    2016
George Atkinson III    2014
Terrance West    2014
Kenyan Drake     2016
Michael Dyer    2015
Tim Cornett    2014
C.J. Anderson    2013
Andre Ellington    2013
James White    2014
De'Anthony Thomas    2014
Tyler Ervin    2016
Lorenzo Taliaferro    2014

Matt Harmon's big Reception Perception analysis of this year's draft class came out last week, with a bunch of great stats that he compiled from his game charting. He has 21 WRs in his data set, including all of the big names and all of my top 10 (including Roger Lewis and USM's Mike Thomas). On average, he charted 175 routes run for each of the receivers, using the all-22 tape.

The most interesting stat that he tracks, which you can't get anywhere else, is success rate. "Success" here means getting open, and a receiver's "success rate" is the fraction of his routes on which he got open. Harmon breaks down success rate by coverage (man vs. zone, with further breakdowns into press coverage and double teams) and by type of route (screen, slant, curl, nine, corner, ...). You can see his Success Rate Versus Coverage (SRVC) and SRVC By Route tables in his post to look at questions like who struggles to get open versus press coverage, or who does the best job of getting open on nine routes (though you do want to be careful about small sample sizes with some of these).

I crunched some numbers to get an overall Adjusted Success Rate for each WR. This is just the receiver's success rate (the fraction of routes that he got open on) adjusted up if he ran more routes that are hard to get open on (e.g., double coverage, nine routes, corner routes) and adjusted down if he ran more routes that are easy to get open on (e.g., zone coverage, screens). Here are how the 21 WRs came out by that metric:

81.4%    Sterling Shepard
79.5%    Josh Doctson
77.3%    Rashard Higgins
75.6%    Corey Coleman
74.3%    Laquon Treadwell
74.2%    Michael Thomas
73.5%    Malcolm Mitchell
72.9%    Mike Thomas
69.9%    Leonte Carroo
69.6%    Kenny Lawler
(69.2%    average)
69.1%    Keyarris Garrett
67.4%    Will Fuller
67.0%    Braxton Miller
67.0%    Demarcus Robinson
65.4%    Tajae Sharpe
62.6%    Pharoh Cooper
62.3%    De'Runnya Wilson
62.0%    Roger Lewis
61.1%    Charone Peake
59.7%    Aaron Burbidge
58.7%    Tyler Boyd

Interesting that the top 6 contains 3 of my top 5 WRs (Coleman, Doctson, Shepard), 2 highly-touted WRs who my numbers have been down on (Laquon Treadwell & OSU's Michael Thomas), and Rashard Higgins. The other 2 WRs in my top 5 (Carroo & Fuller) both come in averageish.

I am planning to incorporate this in my WR ratings, along with some of Harmon's other stats like contested catch rate.