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  2. As I mentioned a few days ago I would take some time on your behalf. Here it goes: Let me get this out of the way - so people can take these comments with the grain of salt that they should. First of all I did not graduate from Wharton. But for the past 16 years, I have managed a private fund for a small group of investors. I have a graduate degree in Performance Psychology and prior to running this fund I worked as a sport psychologist in private practice as well as a consultant to a number of Club, University and National Teams. As far as the fund goes, I have as much skin in the game (percentage-wise) as any of the investors. I am very much risk-averse, but also am willing to take thought-thru large bets that might seem risky to others. I’m bullish when the market is bullish and bearish when the market is bearish. And (hopefully) observant enough to recognize the difference. The fund has evolved over the past 16 years. With the investors, it is an open-door approach. And I take all ideas. We want to think critically about every investment decision we make. The goal is to understand the risk as well as the opportunity. We strike when we feel the technicals align with our opinion so that the probability of a successful trade/investment are on our side. We are far too small to have any influence on any position taken. I like it that way. There have been plenty of home runs and strike-outs along the way. I am far from perfect. Personally, I really like how we are structured right now, and it’s much less stressful than the days when I mostly day-traded futures/options. Because of the way this fund is structured - I have an incentive to make money for my investors. If they don’t turn a profit - I don’t get paid. There have been some years, I lived off savings - and still came into work and worked just as hard as when I made good $. And that’s all I have to say about that. The Bogleheads Approach your are applying to your investment strategy on the surface is quite simply genius. Take a few funds and diversify your entire portfolio. Simple and Genus! And for a long time it was just that. Let’s look at the Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio. It is the simplest of them, and compares similarly over time to the others (ie you’re results in any Boglehead portfolio will be similar). It is comprised of three funds allocated as follows: VTSMX (Total Stock Mkt) - 50% VGTSX (Total Intl Mkt) - 30% VBMFX (Total Bond) - 20% If we back-test the Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio (from 1998-2007 and compare it the the Benchmark $SP500 Fund (Vanguard 500), we get the following results: Bogleheads CAGR = 7.46% Vanguard 500 CAGR = 5.83% A ~2% difference in the CAGR is not insignificant - hell even 1% makes a huge difference over your investing lifetime. Bogleheads KILLED IT over that 10 year time span! Re-Investing Dividends over that period a $100k portfolio would have grown to: Bogleheads = $100k -> $205,420 Vanguard 500= $100k -> $176,249 Again - Bogleheads KILLED IT! During that 10 years span the Vanguard 500 was up 7 years and down 3 years. But what’s amazing is that no matter if the market was up or down, the Bogleheads outperformed the Vanguard 500 EVERY SINGLE YEAR! We can look at the performance here: Bogleheads Performance 1998-2007 Of course 2008 and 2009 weren’t great times. But logically we should expect the Bogleheads to once again shine over the past 10 years (2010-Present). Especially considering it has been the strongest Bull Market in US history. A Bull you likely will never see again. So how did the Bogleheads Portfolio do? Not so great. From 2010-Present: Bogleheads CAGR = 8.61% Vanguard 500 = 12.91% A 4%+ CAGR under-performance over a 10 year time span is massively significant. Like the difference between retiring when you are 60 vs 68. The result is stunning poor. Re-Investing Dividends over that period a $100k portfolio would have grown to: Bogleheads = $100k -> $220,706 Vanguard 500= $100k -> $321,757 This is like a 30% difference. Over that 10 year time span the benchmark Vanguard 500 has been down only 1 year (2018). The Bogleheads has been down 3 years. Perhaps even worse- all 10 years the Bogleheads performed worse than the Vanguard 500. Now if this happened (under-performing the benchmark) 1 or 2 times over a 10 year period, I’d ignore it completely. If it happened 3 years in a row...I’d be concerned. 10 years in a row, I’d be ####ting my pants - especially considering this is likely to be the strongest longest Bull Market of our lifetimes (THIS IS MISSED OPPORTUNITY THAT YOU WILL NEVER GET BACK). We can see the performance here: Bogleheads 2010-July 2019 Now how about the last few years since Trump has been running the show (for the record, I’m not a big believer in giving credit or blame to the President for stock market performance - but HE DOES, Trump supporters do). From 2017 - Present Bogleheads CAGR = 9.85% Vanguard 500 CAGR = 13.78% Bogleheads $100k -> $127,473 Vanguard 500 $100k -> $139,580 The 30% difference in CAGR remains similar here to the 10 year span - THIS SUCKS! Performance can be seen here: Bogleheads 2017-July 2019 Over the past 18 months the performance is worse (of course I’m cherry picking for effect but 18 months to someone 20 years from retirement is 15% of that time - any 18 month period should not be ignored - the clock is ticking.): Bogleheads CAGR = 1.78% Vanguard 500 CAGR = 5.6% The 1.78% is like a kick in the balls because what it really means is that you have been losing in regard to inflation over the past year and a half (Most of Trump’s term). Performance can be seen here: Bogleheads Feb 2018 - July 2019 PERFORMANCE MATTERS!!!!!!!!!!! That’s why I’m shocked that you’re a “HAVE YOU SEEN YOUR 401K LATELY” kind of guy. Here we’ve got the best economy in US History; Unemployment at generational lows; the tailwinds of the largest tax cut in US History; The Fed now cutting interest rates; The stock market near all time highs. And you are not only under-performing - but by a significant amount. Dude - I can tell you - if this were me there would be a lot of hard questions being thrown my way and for good reason. In addition what happens if we’re at the tail-end of this bull market run? What happens if the returns over the next 10 years or 20 years are closer to the last 18 months? Feel free to use Portfolio Visualizer to examine in more detail. And what you will come to see is that ALL of the common diversified portfolio strategies have under-performed for 10 years. Shouldn’t we be asking the hard question why? I would also say: if you can’t beat the SP500 (Vanguard 500)...why not just invest in the SP500? Not only is the Lazy Investor Strategy not working well - I think we all need to be concerned moving into the future. I’m not talking about a simple recession either (it’s really the very least of our long term worries). Rather how to prepare for not just the potential of a single black swan event but a flock of them and the dominoes that befall the global economy and stock markets when they hit. It’s likely coming. That’s not to say one must panic out right now...rather be open to recognizing all potential scenarios and having a plan for them. If this...when this...then that. Many causes for concern are long term fundamental issues that have been ignored for years/decades. Trump is not the sole blame. However, what I do see is that in many areas we have defined as potential black swan events, Trump’s “leadership”, I believe, is accelerating their probability both in terms of time and likelihood of occurring. I’m not a gradualist - rather lean towards punctuated equilibrium and believe we are very close to a time of very rapid change for humanity. In our lifetimes! You should be maximizing the opportunity - preparing for a storm and if it never arrives - what have you lost? We frequent a sports oriented message board. I think all of us should be well-versed in what we’d want in a successful organization. Key to successful performance should include a focus on fundamentals, technicals, and preparing for all scenarios. We all have a fiduciary responsibility to manage our investments. We are, in effect, the coach of our financial decisions. “Lazy” should not be part of the mission strategy. I’m pretty confident you will ignore what I’ve written here. And that’s ok by me. But perhaps someone will find it useful and apply many lessons I’ve learned the hard way. Good luck because the time is coming you're going to need it, and that time might be sooner than you believe.
  3. My office is kind enough to have small bags of almonds and cashews in our break room as well as some health/protein bars. I intend to take advantage of this if I get too hungry between meals.
  4. So Trump wants to know - who is the bigg(est) enemy... Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump ....My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?
  5. Michel was a slam dunk for me, so if you use a little transitive Murphy's Law, that means he probably won't do well. Or he will. Or I don't really know what transitive means or how it would even apply. But he was the next guy I was picking if it got there, which it obviously did not.
  6. I expect it from them. But, I think you should think about what you're saying. Two posters are basically bullying another poster and you're egging them on. Pretty poor optics.
  7. Yeah, I don't disagree and was being cheeky. I think I picked her for a draft once. We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together, for the one where words in song title > six.
  8. I do appreciate and will try to work in most of these suggestions. But you dudes who are like “Otis just have some fresh avocado and cottage cheese with grated pimento as a 10am snack” or “don’t keep any cookies in your house despite that you have three kids under age 9” are on a starship.
  9. Chain steakhouses Billy Joel Printing emails Network Television Police procedurals Shopping at Kohl's Claiming "Pet Sounds" is the greatest rock and roll album of all time Talking to the manager Words with Friends John Stossel Talking on their cell phone in speaker mode while holding it like a slice of pizza Saving the manuals for every appliance in a plastic bag Well done hamburgers Wall calendars Telling people with depression to cheer up and get over it Serving on their HOA board Saying they prefer having the actual book in their hands over a kindle Not using social media because "they come out with a new one every week and I can't keep up" Saying "No price, well then I guess it's free!" when buying something and the checker cant find the price. Giving outdated real estate advice Printed boarding passes Asking "Is it spicy?" at a restaurant
  10. Assuming it was this show https://www.setlist.fm/setlist/parliament-funkadelic/2019/heb-center-at-cedar-park-cedar-park-tx-239f2c77.html
  11. Fentanyl. He’s ordered carriers (Amazon, lol) to take on the role of customs and search all packages for fentanyl. For real.
  12. I pushed through @gruecd's recent killer workout this morning (4 hills; mile; 3 hills; mile; 2 hills; mile; 1 hill; mile). With extended wu/cd to get to a good hill, it was 13 miles of challenging effort.
  13. Fentanyl, it’s legal for prescription use.
  14. Michel was top on my board, but I was waffling. Probably good that you made my decision easier, but I'm going to be angry at you if he does well.
  15. Looks like I am done with Directv. I called winback number and best they could do was $84/month, NFLST Max,, $200 gift card for Choice on 2 tvs (with whole home DVR). I called twice getting 2 different people and the offer was the same. One actually said it required a 2 yr contract. Be careful, they are sneaky slipping that in.... Edit: Service diconnected on Wednesday 8/21
  16. If it were possible it would be, it’s the definition of a command controlled economy. I have zero doubt that if someone told him a 5 year plan was a popular or good idea he’d do it.
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