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Member Since 14 Apr 2003
Offline Last Active Jan 13 2016 05:13 AM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: Chip Kelly

06 January 2016 - 05:36 AM

Were Kelly to land in Cleveland, Josh Brown might find himself on a better team. Somewhere else.

In Topic: Waiver Wire Formats - What do you like?

19 December 2015 - 11:55 AM

I've done FAAB in the past, coupled with FCFS $0 pickups afterward. That's the only way I'd do it again.

Straight up FAAB seems like it would significantly restrict movement. More movement is good, IMO. It is not only the way teams can acquire players, but also the means by which players become available.

In Topic: Charcandrick WEST - Should we be talking about this kid ?

09 December 2015 - 04:25 PM

Thinking about playing both of them


I tried that last week.  Coulda benched either for Latavius Murray.  Couldn't decide which one.  Started both based on the matchup and a gut feeling.


Woulda won if I'd started Latavius Murry over either of them.


Disclaimer:  My anecdote does not have any bearing on any possible futures.

In Topic: What does everyone need tonight?

07 December 2015 - 08:42 PM

Stat corrections for Sunday.

In Topic: Luck vs skill POLL

07 December 2015 - 07:15 PM

I think the game has changed over time.  Fifteen years ago or more, a great part of the "skill" part was just knowing football.  Having Sunday Ticket, watching football, reading about football, having an eye for patterns and trends.  Knowing the URL for the best newspaper beat in certain NFL cities.


A lot of that "skill" has been mitigated by the fantasy community and the fantasy industry scooping and aggregating so much of that information.  This part of skill has somewhat leveled the playing field.  League Management software used to just tell you past stats.  Now, most league software offers pretty sound consensus advice, helping your league's former doormats to the middle of the pack.


Still, I think the experts often get things wrong and are subject to groupthink.  If I read a column from some local fantasy expert in Duluth, I usually come away thinking that guy read the same article or heard the same podcast that I did.  I do think a casual fantasy player can 'win' by identifying breakout talent before the experts.  Basically, that's the game we all play anymore: identifying the guy or the trend first. 


All that said, an argument could be made that it is all still the same game as it ever was.  There is just too much information now.  An owner can find a writer who backs up his every whim.  Do you want to believe that Ameer Abdullah is still the next Barry Sanders.  Google it and you'll find somebody to support that very notion.  (Screw you, Ameer Abdullah.  Screw you all to Hell!) 


So, in some way, the skill is still in sorting the information, and deciding where to stray from consensus reality.


To non-fantasy players who ask about luck and skill, I often break it down like this:  I'm in a 12-team league.  If it were all random, I'd have an 8⅓% chance to win the title.  I make the playoffs almost every year.  I spend a lot of time keeping on top of the game.  I honestly believe that doing so increases my chances of winning a title each year to about 18%. 


That 18% may seem high to some.  It may seem low to others.  I do believe that's about where I'm at.  That's pretty much the percentage of times I have won the championship in this league I am discussing.


For all the effort and "skill" I am still up against luck.  I am also up against the other owners in my league.  Each of those owners invest their time into the game.  Each of those owners has a bit of luck to contend with, as well. 


When I don't win the league, somebody else does.  The circle of life continues.  (Except for Ameer Abdullah.  He's dead to me.)