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Lott's Fingertip

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Everything posted by Lott's Fingertip

  1. I think you gave Darnold for free. I'd take Sutton by himself over 1.06 this year, but it is at least in the same ballpark.
  2. 12 team, ppr for WR/TE, .5 ppr for RB, start QRWWWT + 2 flex, 4 year max contracts, $500fa per year with rollover Gave - Kerryon Johnson (4 yr), Gesecki (devy 1 more year), pick 1.03, $50fa Received - Kamara (3 yr)
  3. I believe he is saying that if Mahomes is included in a large tier of QBs, it is more prudent to draft one of the proven (been there done that) QBs than Mahomes.
  4. He's probably saying that it is a bad trade with the Kamara side winning by a wide margin.
  5. I mean that he has immediately high upside, where ARob may need Mitch to develop a year or two more before having the same upside, or at least the same probability of reaching that upside. Adams has long term upside as well. :-)
  6. I agree that Thomas is clearly ahead of the other two. ARob has the same kind of upside, but is in an unsettled situation. I'm more forgiving of Adams, his situation looks really positive for at least a couple of years. I actually tried to trade ARob + Hogan for Adams in a league that I want the short term upside of Adams, was denied.
  7. How do you all value young WRs that have already broken out in terms of draft picks, but are behind OBJ/Hopkins? For example, D.Adams, ARob, M.Thomas. I've seen Leveon Bell go for three semi-random future firsts. What would one of these WRs go for in terms of random 1st, likely early 1st(s), likely late 1sts?
  8. Williams is a noticeably better interior runner and blocker. Jones is noticeably more explosive and better in space. Throw in Montgomery and I don't think any single back gets more than 1/2 the total touches between the three of them, barring injury or fumble-itis. Both sophomores are worth taking a chance on in case they separate from the, um, pack, and a 2nd rounder is a reasonable price to pay, but don't roster them as any more than a RB3/4, imo.
  9. Re: Gesecki I have no issue with not liking him, everybody has their opinion and I respect EBF's. However, what is the opportunity cost of drafting Gesecki in the mid-late 2nd? The RBs and WRs are pretty much dried up, QBs are, well, QBs... so your opportunity cost is drafting Gesecki over Hurst or a QB? I have no problem paying that cost for an upside TE. Hurst is fine, but probably tops out as TE8 or so, not that valuable... QBs are like that as well, unless you fall in love. Gesecki is a perfectly respectable pick in that 16-24 range.
  10. What are your expected numbers for him? I have him around 700-800 yards rushing on 170-190 carries, 500 receiving on 60 catches, around 8 TDs on an above average offense. TDs are hard to predict for him, but I think I may be on the low side for receptions. That's about 230 points in ppr... right around top 10 last year. Heck, he had 182 points for an RB17 finish last year with uneven use. The Fantasy Sharks projection on MFL has him at 1131 yfs, 52 receptions, 8 TDs... 213 ppr points. David Dodds has him at 1153 yfs, 55 rec, 9 TDs... 224 ppr points. I don't think he is a sure thing, but I think RB15 in PPR is a pretty reasonable expectation.
  11. 12 team PPR, pretty standard rules (My picks in bold) 1.01 Barkley, Saquon NYG RB (R) 1.02 Guice, Derrius WAS RB (R) 1.03 Chubb, Nick CLE RB (R) 1.04 Jones, Ronald TBB RB (R) 1.05 Penny, Rashaad SEA RB (R) 1.06 Michel, Sony NEP RB (R) 1.07 Freeman, Royce DEN RB (R) 1.08 Moore, D.J. CAR WR (R) 1.09 Ridley, Calvin ATL WR (R) 1.10 Johnson, Kerryon DET RB (R) 1.11 Sutton, Courtland DEN WR (R) 1.12 Kirk, Christian ARI WR (R) 1.13 Gallup, Michael DAL WR (R) 2.01 Washington, James PIT WR (R) 2.02 Miller, Anthony CHI WR (R) 2.03 Gesicki, Mike MIA TE (R) 2.04 St. Brown, Equanimeous GBP WR (R) 2.05 Rosen, Josh ARI QB (R) 2.06 Hines, Nyheim IND RB (R) 2.07 Pettis, Dante SFO WR (R) 2.08 Jackson, Lamar BAL QB (R) 2.09 Mayfield, Baker CLE QB (R) 2.10 Chark, D.J. JAC WR (R) 2.11 Ballage, Kalen MIA RB (R) 2.12 Goedert, Dallas PHI TE (R) 3.01 Darnold, Sam NYJ QB (R) 3.02 Callaway, Antonio CLE WR (R) 3.03 Smith, Tre'Quan NOS WR (R) 3.04 Berrios, Braxton NEP WR (R) 3.05 Hamilton, DaeSean DEN WR (R) 3.06 Hurst, Hayden BAL TE (R) 3.07 Samuels, Jaylen PIT RB (R) 3.08 Kelly, John LAR RB (R) 3.09 Walton, Mark CIN RB (R) 3.10 Andrews, Mark BAL TE (R) 3.11 Cain, Deon IND WR (R) 3.12 Jackson, Justin LAC RB (R)
  12. Re: Gronk We are in the midst of our RFA period in one league. We get $500/year and it rolls over year over year. We give max 4 year contracts to players. Gronk, Ertz, and Kelce were all up this year. Kelce went for $300, Ertz for $250, and Gronk for $150. I thought it was light for Gronk, but not out of order. Personally, I'd give a future late 1st for Gronk if I needed a TE. I wouldn't give a mid 1st.
  13. Which ones? IMO, after the mid-second round the quality flatlines. It is a 1 QB league, so rookie QB values are meh. It is a 1 RB required league and only 1/2 ppr for RBs, so the N. Hines kind of guys are meh. Vets are included, and we start RB/WRWRWR/2 Flex, leaving the waiver wire is pretty bare, so some late flyers on the John Browns of the world aren't out of line for teams that need another possible starter rather than a long term project rookie. Half the league is goofy with Ds, carrying 2 or even 3, there is no playing waiver wire matchups, that's why a few get drafted. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  14. I'm a Cooper owner in 2 leagues. I am not a seller... I am comfortable with him in the WR6-12 valuation range.
  15. (update of Sunday 7:54 p.m. post) 12 team, 1/2 PPR for RB, 1 PPR for WR/TE, start QRWWWT + 2 flex (My picks in bold) 1.01 Barkley, Saquon NYG RB (R) 1.02 Guice, Derrius WAS RB (R) 1.03 Penny, Rashaad SEA RB (R) 1.04 Michel, Sony NEP RB (R) 1.05 Chubb, Nick CLE RB (R) 1.06 Jones, Ronald TBB RB (R) 1.07 Ridley, Calvin ATL WR (R) 1.08 D.J. CAR WR (R) 1.09 St. Brown, Equanimeous GBP WR (R) 1.10 Miller, Anthony CHI WR (R) 1.11 Sutton, Courtland DEN WR (R) 1.12 Goedert, Dallas PHI TE (R) 2.01 Freeman, Royce DEN RB (R) 2.02 Johnson, Kerryon DET RB (R) 2.03 Callaway, Antonio CLE WR (R) 2.04 Kirk, Christian ARI WR (R) 2.05 Washington, James PIT WR (R) 2.06 Gallup, Michael DAL WR (R) 2.07 Gesicki, Mike MIA TE (R) 2.08 Mayfield, Baker CLE QB (R) 2.09 Foles, Nick QB PHI <------------------ I don't know either. 2.10 Pettis, Dante WR 2.11 Ballage, Kalen RB 2.12 Jackson, Lamar QB 3.01 Wims, Javon WR <--------------------- Same owner as 2.09. Oof. 3.02 Chark, D.J. WR 3.03 Rosen, Josh QB 3.04 Kelly, John RB 3.05 Allen, Josh QB 3.06 Hurst, Hayden TE 3.07 Darnold, Sam QB 3.08 Brown, John WR BAL 3.09 Andrews, Mark TE 3.10 Chicago Bears Def 3.11 Hines, Nyheim RB 3.12 Smith, Tre'Quan WR 4.01 Cain, Deon WR 4.02 Jackson, Justin RB 4.03 Cantrell, Dylan WR 4.04 McCarron, A.J. QB BUF <---- Bills homer, also bad at dynasty 4.05 Rudolph, Mason QB 4.06 Hamilton, DaeSean WR 4.07 Cleveland Browns Def 4.08 Barber, Peyton RB TBay 4.09 Tate, Auden WR 4.10 Walton, Mark RB 4.11 Lasley, Jordan WR 4.12 *OTC*
  16. Yeah, this was nutty. The owner is actually a good owner, he just really wanted this guy. He said he spoke with the guy that had picks 10-11-12 after him, and that guy was going to take ESB, so... BIG reach. I like ESB as well, could see reaching in the 2nd, but 9 is crazy. I picked up ESB in another league at pick 34.
  17. 12 team, 1/2 PPR for RB, 1 PPR for WR/TE, start QRRWWWT + flex 1.01 Barkley, Saquon NYG RB (R) 1.02 Guice, Derrius WAS RB (R) 1.03 Penny, Rashaad SEA RB (R) 1.04 Michel, Sony NEP RB (R) 1.05 Chubb, Nick CLE RB (R) 1.06 Jones, Ronald TBB RB (R) 1.07 Ridley, Calvin ATL WR (R) 1.08 D.J. CAR WR (R) 1.09 St. Brown, Equanimeous GBP WR (R) 1.10 Miller, Anthony CHI WR (R) 1.11 Sutton, Courtland DEN WR (R) 1.12 Goedert, Dallas PHI TE (R) 2.01 Freeman, Royce DEN RB (R) 2.02 Johnson, Kerryon DET RB (R) 2.03 Callaway, Antonio CLE WR (R) 2.04 Kirk, Christian ARI WR (R) 2.05 Washington, James PIT WR (R) 2.06 Gallup, Michael DAL WR (R) 2.07 Gesicki, Mike MIA TE (R)
  18. Hunt went in the mid-third in my last 12 team NON-ppr yesterday. He was the RB14.
  19. Hunt went at pick 34 in my 12 team redraft Saturday afternoon.
  20. Woodhead has gotten a lot of red zone usage, I'm not sure that is a positive for West. We'll see.
  21. Just in case it hasn't been said and somebody believes this, this web site is a prank news site.
  22. Fair enough. I am not projecting Thomas to improve (for all the reasons you lay out), I think he will end up around where he did in 2016. But I can absolutely concede that his CEILING is noticeably higher than my expectation... just that I only give him a 15-20% chance of approaching that ceiling. IMO, saying that is much different than saying Maclin can set the NFL record for receptions. ;-)
  23. He had a 16 game pace of 1213 yards and 9.6 TDs. For standard, going to 1200/12 would be going from 178.9 to 192, an increase in scoring of 7.3%. Is it possible for him to get those 12 TDs while increasing his yards per game from about 76 to about 82? Is that not a "reasonable increase"? Because that takes his "ceiling" projection to 1312/12... Regarding conflating ceiling with anything can happen, you said the following in response to the ceiling comments: *shrug*